Russia

[badgerx16]

Putin has signed a law that decrees that Ukrainians in the Russian occupied areas will be deported if they refuse to take Russian citizenship. A clear case of ethnic cleansing.

Edited 28 April, 2023 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

17 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Putin has signed a law that decrees that Ukrainians in the Russian occupied areas will be deported if they refuse to take Russian citizenship. A clear case of ethnic cleansing.

Deported to where? Ukraine?

[badgerx16]

37 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Deported to where? Ukraine?

Probably, along the same sort of "safe" humanitarian corridors they created out of Mariupol.

[revolution saint]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Putin has signed a law that decrees that Ukrainians in the Russian occupied areas will be deported if they refuse to take Russian citizenship. A clear case of ethnic cleansing.

There's no need for that law cos when they had their referendum it was a unanimous vote in favour of becoming Russian.  What's the point of the law if there's no one in the occupied territories who doesn't want to be Russian?

[buctootim]

fao Jonnyboy

 

[Weston Super Saint]

The question is, is Russia really, really good at defending the Kremlin or really, really bad?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904

The video (conveniently shot just opposite the Kremlin the day before the victory parade celebrations showind the stands set up like the Russian flag), shows the alleged drone being 'downed' right over the top of the Kremlin.

Are their defences so shockingly bad that the 'electronic radar assets' that were used to disable the 'drone' weren't actually effectively until it reached it's target, or, are they so spectacularly good that they managed to time the destruction to perfection, so the person shooting the video also got the Kremlin in the shot when the 'drone' exploded?

[benjii]

Probably best for people in positions of authority not to stand too close to open windows tomorrow. Would hate for another accident to happen.

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

The question is, is Russia really, really good at defending the Kremlin or really, really bad?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904

The video (conveniently shot just opposite the Kremlin the day before the victory parade celebrations showind the stands set up like the Russian flag), shows the alleged drone being 'downed' right over the top of the Kremlin.

Are their defences so shockingly bad that the 'electronic radar assets' that were used to disable the 'drone' weren't actually effectively until it reached it's target, or, are they so spectacularly good that they managed to time the destruction to perfection, so the person shooting the video also got the Kremlin in the shot when the 'drone' exploded?

Better ask the Russian TV effects crew that set the whole thing up. Ukrainian intelligence almost certainly know where Putin is at every hour of the day, as well as most of his body doubles, so why would they launch a small hobby drone into the most heavily defended building in Russia whilst he wasn't at home ?

Purely for domestic consumption, and a bit rich considering Ukrainian authorities reckon there have been at least a dozen Russian instigated attempts on President Zelensky's life since the SMO began, many of them thwarted because friendly FSB operatives, ( Russian intelligence agency ), tipped them off.

Edited 3 May, 2023 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, benjii said:

Probably best for people in positions of authority not to stand too close to open windows tomorrow. Would hate for another accident to happen.

Or under them.

[Jimmy_D]

4 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

The question is, is Russia really, really good at defending the Kremlin or really, really bad?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65471904

The video (conveniently shot just opposite the Kremlin the day before the victory parade celebrations showind the stands set up like the Russian flag), shows the alleged drone being 'downed' right over the top of the Kremlin.

Are their defences so shockingly bad that the 'electronic radar assets' that were used to disable the 'drone' weren't actually effectively until it reached it's target, or, are they so spectacularly good that they managed to time the destruction to perfection, so the person shooting the video also got the Kremlin in the shot when the 'drone' exploded?

My guess is that they want an excuse to cancel the victory day parade for some reason.

[Weston Super Saint]

9 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

My guess is that they want an excuse to cancel the victory day parade for some reason.

They already cancelled the "immortals" parade - well converted it to putting a note in cars instead.

The mighty bear seems to be shitting its pants at the moment!

[revolution saint]

Prigozhin threatening to pull Wagner troops out of Bakhmut : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

Wonder how the Russians will spin this?

[aintforever]

3 hours ago, revolution saint said:

Prigozhin threatening to pull Wagner troops out of Bakhmut : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

Wonder how the Russians will spin this?

Problem is they don't need to spin anything, they just won't show it anywhere.

Think Wanger know a Ukraine offensive is not far away and they are shitting it.

[badgerx16]

3 hours ago, revolution saint said:

Prigozhin threatening to pull Wagner troops out of Bakhmut : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

 

[badgerx16]

29 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Problem is they don't need to spin anything, they just won't show it anywhere.

Think Wanger know a Ukraine offensive is not far away and they are shitting it.

Wagner and the whole Russian army know that the UA will soon be demonstrating their new toys. The fear for Wagner is being caught in a 'kessel' in the wreckage of Bakhmut - whether UA intend to attack there or elsewhere we will find out soon.

The Ukrainians have said that the more Prigozhin asks for shells, the more they will send him.

 

Edited 5 May, 2023 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

Unless it’s a feint, or a negotiating tactic to get more ammunition delivered, looks like they’re intending to leave it in the hands of the Russian Army, albeit that’d likely be more or less the same as giving up on taking it. I guess Ukraine finally managed to tip the scales on it costing Wagner too much to take Bakhmut, especially with Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive likely putting a short time limit on that being viable.

Ammunation shortages aren’t just limited to Wagner, Russia have been holding back ammunition everywhere, likely to stockpile it for that counteroffensive. Or they’ve been trying to, they’ve been nice targets for HIMARS at least.

On top of that, Ukraine have been absolutely hammering Russian artillerly, fuel, and logistics the last few days. Looks like Ukraine are doing this similar to Kherson, where Russia know it’s coming and their morale will already be shaky when the fighting starts, albeit not focused on one city this time, adding the unknown factor for Russian troops whether it’s them that will end up facing it.

[Lighthouse]

3 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Wagner and the whole Russian army know that the UA will soon be demonstrating their new toys. The fear for Wagner is being caught in a 'kessel' in the wreckage of Bakhmut - whether UA intend to attack there or elsewhere we will find out soon.

The Ukrainians have said that the more Prigozhin asks for shells, the more they will send him.

 

I don’t see why the counter offensive would be at Bakhmut, it’s of little strategic value and seems to have become a symbol of obstinance from both sides more than anything. I’m guessing they’ll try and cut under the Russian lines in Kherson oblast and try to cut the forces to the north off from resupply from Crimea. Or possibly punch down towards Melitopol and cut them off from the East.

[skintsaint]

I'm sure they have been leaving Bakhmut for months already, albeit in bodybags.

[AlexLaw76]

 

[badgerx16]

It seems that the only tank at the Victory Day parade was a T-34.

[mack rill]

Ukrainian farmers have borrowed the rest.

[buctootim]

Pretty damn sparse

 

[Jimmy_D]

4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

It seems that the only tank at the Victory Day parade was a T-34.

Seems that tank was taken from a museum, and originally manufactured in Ukraine.

Flyby section also completely cancelled.

Considering Russia’s usual habit of trying to appear as strong as possible in propaganda, seems unlikely they’d be willing to let people in Russia be able to see front and centre a position of weakness like that unless they had no choice.

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

Seems that tank was taken from a museum, and originally manufactured in Ukraine.

Flyby section also completely cancelled.

Considering Russia’s usual habit of trying to appear as strong as possible in propaganda, seems unlikely they’d be willing to let people in Russia be able to see front and centre a position of weakness like that unless they had no choice.

Isn't the "spin" because of the War instigated by "the West"?

[buctootim]

 

 

Cost: $3 million 

Result: 12 strawberry plants destroyed, four damaged. 

Edited 9 May, 2023 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

41 minutes ago, buctootim said:

 

 

Cost: $3 million 

Result: 12 strawberry plants destroyed, four damaged. 

Were they Nazi strawberry plants ?

Edited 9 May, 2023 by badgerx16

[Lighthouse]

57 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Were they Nazi strawberry plants ?

The under ripe ones tend to look a bit more Aryan 

[badgerx16]

 

[badgerx16]

According to the UK Ministry of Defence the only operational troops seen at the Victory Day parade were railway protection units and military police. The majority were auxiliary paramilitaries and cadets from military schools.

[Jimmy_D]

Reports that small scale combined arms counterattacks around Bakhmut in the last 24 hours have liberated kilometres of territory that Russia had spent months capturing, and forced an entire Russian brigade to be disbanded.

Early indications, it seems Russia were spending far more resources than they could sustain in an attempt to dislodge Ukraine before 9th May, and are now tapped out, at least for the moment.

Considering the amount diverted from other areas of the front by Russia to Bakhmut, and Ukraine were still able to do this, it seems to bode well for the counterattack. I’m not sure we’ll see a huge breakthrough suddenly overnight, although I’m sure Ukraine would do so if the opportunity presents itself, but my gut feeling is that they’ll just use the intelligence at their disposal, knowing that Russia don’t have the resources to fully defend the whole front, and just keep hitting where they’re weak until Russia have no choice but to withdraw further and further back.

[Jimmy_D]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65558070

That's significant. Storm Shadow is a highly capable missile. Range of at least 300km, roughly equivalent payload to 5 HIMARS, and with stealth capabilities that make it extremely difficult to intercept. They have several different guidance systems that make them extremely accurate, and almost immune to EW jamming.

That puts into range Kerch Bridge, Sevastapol port, forward air bases, rail hubs, and every large ammo dump that Russia had pulled back beyond HIMARS range. They'll be forced to either stretch their already failing logistics out to unfeasible distances, or risk losing any big target in range. Being launched from a jet makes that even more difficult to calculate. Any further cruise missile launches from the Black Sea against civilians will also be extremely risky for Russia.

[AlexLaw76]

On 11/05/2023 at 13:09, Jimmy_D said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65558070

That's significant. Storm Shadow is a highly capable missile. Range of at least 300km, roughly equivalent payload to 5 HIMARS, and with stealth capabilities that make it extremely difficult to intercept. They have several different guidance systems that make them extremely accurate, and almost immune to EW jamming.

That puts into range Kerch Bridge, Sevastapol port, forward air bases, rail hubs, and every large ammo dump that Russia had pulled back beyond HIMARS range. They'll be forced to either stretch their already failing logistics out to unfeasible distances, or risk losing any big target in range. Being launched from a jet makes that even more difficult to calculate. Any further cruise missile launches from the Black Sea against civilians will also be extremely risky for Russia.

Interesting to know how is planning the missions for these missiles..well, kind of obvious, but I wonder if it will ever be discussed in public

[Jimmy_D]

44 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Interesting to know how is planning the missions for these missiles..well, kind of obvious, but I wonder if it will ever be discussed in public

It’ll depend on exactly how many we’ve sent, we had an initial stockpile of about 900 - 1000, and have expended about 90 - 100 over the years.

If we’ve sent only very low numbers, at least initially, then any decisions on use will have to go right to the top, whereas if we’ve sent more then decisions can be taken lower down the chain, but even then it won’t be too far down that it goes. Ukraine will already have a list of priorities depending on what they’re planning to do.

I’d imagine that among their initial targets will be S300 and S400 control vehicles to suppress Russian anti-air,  so that the planes carrying these can get closer to the front line and hit further back.

Before that though, Russia will have to react to knowing Ukraine has these. That’ll alone will be an advantage for Ukraine. It’ll likely also open up the political possibility for other countries to supply similar range missiles, perhaps without being announced.

[AlexLaw76]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

It’ll depend on exactly how many we’ve sent, we had an initial stockpile of about 900 - 1000, and have expended about 90 - 100 over the years.

If we’ve sent only very low numbers, at least initially, then any decisions on use will have to go right to the top, whereas if we’ve sent more then decisions can be taken lower down the chain, but even then it won’t be too far down that it goes. Ukraine will already have a list of priorities depending on what they’re planning to do.

I’d imagine that among their initial targets will be S300 and S400 control vehicles to suppress Russian anti-air,  so that the planes carrying these can get closer to the front line and hit further back.

Before that though, Russia will have to react to knowing Ukraine has these. That’ll alone will be an advantage for Ukraine. It’ll likely also open up the political possibility for other countries to supply similar range missiles, perhaps without being announced.

That is great, but it will likely be the UK planning the missions.  You don't just load these babies to A/C and press fire.

There is little chance these things are 'set up' in Ukraine, as the capability is highly classified.

[Jimmy_D]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

That is great, but it will likely be the UK planning the missions.  You don't just load these babies to A/C and press fire.

There is little chance these things are 'set up' in Ukraine, as the capability is highly classified.

There’s no doubt the UK will be providing technical assistance for them, they announced they already had, to get them working with Soviet jets, but it’ll still be Ukraine’s command chain that’s directing any use for them.

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, Jimmy_D said:

There’s no doubt the UK will be providing technical assistance for them, they announced they already had, to get them working with Soviet jets, but it’ll still be Ukraine’s command chain that’s directing any use for them.

The only directing will be whether to release them or not.  

Technical assistance = doing everything bar pressing fire.

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, AlexLaw76 said:

The only directing will be whether to release them or not.  

Technical assistance = doing everything bar pressing fire.

Wait, you think the UK are going to be picking targets themselves here?

[badgerx16]

Does it matter ? The Ukrainians stated their need for longer range munitions, with an obvious category of targets in mind. The UK have sent a number of missiles but it is hardly up to us to dictate how they are used, other than possibly restricting them to targets within the 2014 borders. It might be interesting now if France follow suit, as their SS can be ground launched.

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, Jimmy_D said:

Wait, you think the UK are going to be picking targets themselves here?

Ukraine simply has no means to plan the target missions.  Absolutely none. Zero.

Hence why we will be doing it, clearly as they are our missiles

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, badgerx16 said:

Does it matter ? The Ukrainians stated their need for longer range munitions, with an obvious category of targets in mind. The UK have sent a number of missiles but it is hardly up to us to dictate how they are used, other than possibly restricting them to targets within the 2014 borders. It might be interesting now if France follow suit, as their SS can be ground launched.

seeing as we will probably be generating the target missions, I am sure we will have a (big) say, like we have all along

[Jimmy_D]

2 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Ukraine simply has no means to plan the target missions.  Absolutely none. Zero.

Hence why we will be doing it, clearly as they are our missiles

Just how complicated do you think targeting these things is?

There’s absolutely no benefit to either us or to Ukraine for us to be deciding where these things are targeted, or for us not to be providing the capability to target them.

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, Jimmy_D said:

Just how complicated do you think targeting these things is?

There’s absolutely no benefit to either us or to Ukraine for us to be deciding where these things are targeted, or for us not to be providing the capability to target them.

quite....literally.  the mission set-up process is highly classified.  

[badgerx16]

Just now, AlexLaw76 said:

quite....literally.  the mission set-up process is highly classified.  

We send them missiles preset and requiring 2 things, a command connection from the MIG hardpoint and the input of some GPS coordinates- how classified is that ?

[Jimmy_D]

5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

quite....literally.  the mission set-up process is highly classified.  

We’re literally sending the export version of the missile.

You think we’d be controlling every missile we ever sell?

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, Jimmy_D said:

We’re literally sending the export version of the missile.

You think we’d be controlling every missile we ever sell?

are we now selling them?

If so, great. Interested to know how Ukraine will plan precise missions.  We will probably never know. 

[Jimmy_D]

11 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

are we now selling them?

If so, great. Interested to know how Ukraine will plan precise missions.  We will probably never know. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow#Operators

We’re certainly not deciding targets for all of those.

Planning precise missions won’t be any more complicated than planning GPS coordinates to route the missile around known high concentrations of AA defences.

 

[Weston Super Saint]

17 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

are we now selling them?

If so, great. Interested to know how Ukraine will plan precise missions.  We will probably never know. 

You'd be naive to think that us, the US and probably Germany haven't sent some "technical" delegates along to help.

More likely that intelligence is being shared with / run through S.H.A.P.E 

[aintforever]

Looks like Stormshadows are already being used:

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1657061337963327489?s=20

[badgerx16]

36 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Looks like Stormshadows are already being used:

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1657061337963327489?s=20

Did the Russians not claim to have shot it down ? Especially following the interception of a Kinzhal by a Patriot battery.

Weeks ago they had a TV reporter telling of how they had captured a Leo2 and driven it into a swamp so that it sank.

[Jimmy_D]

Seems it actually was Storm Shadow, assuming these pictures are accurate.

Also looks like Russian air defence operators are seeing shadows everywhere, reports of two Russian helicopters and two Russian jets hit by friendly fire so far today.