Russia

[Saint in Paradise]

How 100% true the following is I will let you make up your own minds. IF it is it shows how Putin is even more mentally ill than I thought he was.

Why he isn't wrapped up in a strait jacket and imprisoned in a rubber walled cell I  have no idea.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-planned-attack-japan-2021-fsb-letters-1762133

Russia was preparing to attack Japan in the summer of 2021, months before President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,

an email featuring a letter from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveals.

The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs

the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.

The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin

invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, a Washington-based non-profit organization, has been translating the

correspondence from Russian to English since it began on March 4. He has shared all the emails in full to Newsweek, including the March 17 brief.

[skintsaint]

3 hours ago, Saint in Paradise said:

How 100% true the following is I will let you make up your own minds. IF it is it shows how Putin is even more mentally ill than I thought he was.

Why he isn't wrapped up in a strait jacket and imprisoned in a rubber walled cell I  have no idea.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-planned-attack-japan-2021-fsb-letters-1762133

Russia was preparing to attack Japan in the summer of 2021, months before President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,

an email featuring a letter from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveals.

The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs

the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.

The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin

invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, a Washington-based non-profit organization, has been translating the

correspondence from Russian to English since it began on March 4. He has shared all the emails in full to Newsweek, including the March 17 brief.

Don't believe that for one minute. Pretty sure the USA have a large number of forces based in Japan and have a defence agreement with them in case they are attacked? Might be wrong.

[badgerx16]

8 hours ago, skintsaint said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63829973

Don't believe that figure. Double it at least I reckon.

I would imagine that in Ukraine it would be easier than in Russia to work out the number of funerals of soldiers, so taking into account those bodies yet to be discovered and cases where no human remains are left to be found, the estimate quoted on the previous page of up to 20k is probably close.

[badgerx16]

9 hours ago, Saint in Paradise said:

How 100% true the following is I will let you make up your own minds. IF it is it shows how Putin is even more mentally ill than I thought he was.

Why he isn't wrapped up in a strait jacket and imprisoned in a rubber walled cell I  have no idea.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-planned-attack-japan-2021-fsb-letters-1762133

Russia was preparing to attack Japan in the summer of 2021, months before President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,

an email featuring a letter from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveals.

The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs

the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.

The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin

invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, a Washington-based non-profit organization, has been translating the

correspondence from Russian to English since it began on March 4. He has shared all the emails in full to Newsweek, including the March 17 brief.

Russia and Japan have not signed a peace treaty to end WW2.

 

If you want to see that the current level of Russian command incompetence is nothing new look up the "Voyage of the Damned"; the journey during the Russo-Japanese War of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet round Africa and SE Asia to meet it's fate at the battle of Tsushima, particularly the story of the supply ship Kamchatka.

Edited 2 December, 2022 by badgerx16

[buctootim]

7 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Don't believe that for one minute. Pretty sure the USA have a large number of forces based in Japan and have a defence agreement with them in case they are attacked? Might be wrong.

I doubt they were planning to occupy Tokyo but could easily have been a land grab as thet did initially in Ukraine with Crimea. Japan and Russia have an ongoing dispute over the Kurill Islands and there are others nearby Russia could go after.  

Edited 2 December, 2022 by buctootim

[skintsaint]

Looks like old Pootin struggling a bit these days if true.

Vladimir Putin 'fell down stairs at his home and soiled himself'

[whelk]

5 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Looks like old Pootin struggling a bit these days if true.

Vladimir Putin 'fell down stairs at his home and soiled himself'

I so want to believe that. Old cunt can’t even control his bowels

[badgerx16]

New Zealand troops have been teaching Ukrainians some new close combat tactics;

 

[Jimmy_D]

Reported explosions at Russian air bases extremely deep into Russian territory, following reports of Ukraine developing very long range drones, although the exact cause is still unknown.

Entirely possible that Russia had assumed they were completely safe and moved air defence from them closer to Ukraine, trying to mitigate the losses they’ve been incurring since Ukraine got HARM systems.

[buctootim]

According to UK intelligence the daily number of Rusisian air sorties has fallen from up to 300 per day in March to 'tens' per day now. In part because of weather but also loss of top cover and increased Ukrainian air defence  

[badgerx16]

Russia 'accuses' Ukraine of launching attacks on 2 of it's airfields - do they think, perhaps, that it would be fairer if Ukraine targetted civilian housing and energy infrastructure ?

[Jimmy_D]

Looks like Russia attempted yet another wide range missile strike in revenge.

It wasn’t completely stopped, but looks like Russia’s continually dwindling precision missile stock and Ukraine’s continually improving missile defence has tipped the balance a bit further in Ukraine’s favour, based on initial reports of damage caused.

[badgerx16]

2 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

Looks like Russia attempted yet another wide range missile strike in revenge.

It wasn’t completely stopped, but looks like Russia’s continually dwindling precision missile stock and Ukraine’s continually improving missile defence has tipped the balance a bit further in Ukraine’s favour, based on initial reports of damage caused.

Picture of a pile of Russian scrap in Kharkiv

[skintsaint]

Looks like Kursk airfield hit tonight at least.

[Weston Super Saint]

How is this new 'cap' on Russian oil supposed to work?

I get the reason, 'cap' the price of the oil to $60 per barrel when the market is $80 per barrel, with a mechanism that will reduce the Russian oil price if the market price falls - Russia makes less money per barrel.

But, there doesn't seem to be a 'cap' on how much Russian oil can be bought.  In simple terms, Russia can just keep pumping out the oil.  Simple economics of supply and demand dictate that consumers will buy the lowest priced oil (from Russia in this case), so whilst they make less money per barrel, they can sell as many barrels as they want to make up the shortfall.  Seems to me that those who put this 'cap' together are having their cake and eating it.

[egg]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

How is this new 'cap' on Russian oil supposed to work?

I get the reason, 'cap' the price of the oil to $60 per barrel when the market is $80 per barrel, with a mechanism that will reduce the Russian oil price if the market price falls - Russia makes less money per barrel.

But, there doesn't seem to be a 'cap' on how much Russian oil can be bought.  In simple terms, Russia can just keep pumping out the oil.  Simple economics of supply and demand dictate that consumers will buy the lowest priced oil (from Russia in this case), so whilst they make less money per barrel, they can sell as many barrels as they want to make up the shortfall.  Seems to me that those who put this 'cap' together are having their cake and eating it.

It won't work, and I see it as I do. Russian oil now cheaper, and the cap is essentially a fixed price. OPEC output has been reduced so probably higher prices from there, so Russia sell more oil. 

[buctootim]

Russia is part of the OPEC production limits. Thry can’t produce more without breaking apart the whole system. If they do then everyone else will, the market will flood and the price will drop well below $60

[Weston Super Saint]

36 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Russia is part of the OPEC production limits. Thry can’t produce more without breaking apart the whole system. If they do then everyone else will, the market will flood and the price will drop well below $60

Because their respect for International laws and agreements has been top notch recently.

[buctootim]

16 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Because their respect for International laws and agreements has been top notch recently.

Ethics dont need to play a part, self interest does. OPEC all want the same thing - maximum income for minimum work. You think the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, Qatar, Libya, Nigeria etc are bound together by high principles for the greater good? 

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

Ethics dont need to play a part, self interest does. OPEC all want the same thing - maximum income for minimum work. You think the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, Qatar, Libya, Nigeria etc are bound together by high principles for the greater good? 

Irrelevant.

Do you think the leaders of those countries you listed have any ability to stop Russia from producing more oil - apart from producing more of their own thus driving the prices down, which looks like a good deal for me and everyone else who drives a (non electric) car.

[buctootim]

13 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Irrelevant.

Do you think the leaders of those countries you listed have any ability to stop Russia from producing more oil - apart from producing more of their own thus driving the prices down, which looks like a good deal for me and everyone else who drives a (non electric) car.

Oh ffs. Of course it is dearie. I wonder why OPEC has announced immediate action in response to the Russian oil price cap and I wonder why Russia aligned in the first place if they didnt see any value for themselves in co-ordinating. 

Edited 6 December, 2022 by buctootim

[Weston Super Saint]

53 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Oh ffs. Of course it is dearie. I wonder why OPEC has announced immediate action in response to the Russian oil price cap and I wonder why Russia aligned in the first place if they didnt see any value for themselves in co-ordinating. 

Do you think that value may have disappeared when everyone agreed to a price cap on Russian oil and NOT on the rest of OPEC.

I think you may be confusing how OPEC (the cartel) has previously worked with how it may change now that the rules have been significantly altered for ONLY ONE of its members.

[buctootim]

13 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Do you think that value may have disappeared when everyone agreed to a price cap on Russian oil and NOT on the rest of OPEC.

I think you may be confusing how OPEC (the cartel) has previously worked with how it may change now that the rules have been significantly altered for ONLY ONE of its members.

No I dont because the Russian oil cap price is linked to the price of other oil benchmarks. The intention is that Russian oil will trade at a discount regardless of what the general price of oil is.  So if Russia were to flood the market not only would other members likely respond but they would further degrade the price of their own oil.   

[egg]

Re the above, Russia will produce and flog as much oil as it wants, and India, China etc will buy as much cheap oil as they can. It's not a difficult concept.

[buctootim]

19 minutes ago, egg said:

Re the above, Russia will produce and flog as much oil as it wants, and India, China etc will buy as much cheap oil as they can. It's not a difficult concept.

Apparently it is for you 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/04/opec-meeting-oil-producer-group-in-focus-ahead-of-russia-sanctions.html

Edited 6 December, 2022 by buctootim

[egg]

3 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Apparently it is for you 

Russia to play by the rules. Bless. 

[Jimmy_D]

Sanctions have made the maintenance costs of everything higher for Russia, the breakeven point of oil for Russia will already have risen closer to $60 per barrel, and increasing production would only hasten that rising breakeven point.

On top of that there’s only so much demand, logistics, and storage for Russian oil to China and India.

There’s no magic bullet for Russia here, it’s going to be a further squeeze on them, with room to continue squeezing over time.

[buctootim]

11 minutes ago, egg said:

Russia to play by the rules. Bless. 

Is it that you can't read, don't read or read but don't understand? Saudi Arabia and Russia have had two production wars in recent years and they both lost out badly by the oil price crashing below the cost of producing it. 

[buctootim]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Sanctions have made the maintenance costs of everything higher for Russia, the breakeven point of oil for Russia will already have risen closer to $60 per barrel, and increasing production would only hasten that rising breakeven point.

On top of that there’s only so much demand, logistics, and storage for Russian oil to China and India.

There’s no magic bullet for Russia here, it’s going to be a further squeeze on them, with room to continue squeezing over time.

Exactly

[Weston Super Saint]

6 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Is it that you can't read, don't read or read but don't understand? Saudi Arabia and Russia have had two production wars in recent years and they both lost out badly by the oil price crashing below the cost of producing it. 

Russia had it's outlet for gas sales into Europe shut down.  Russia then blew up the pipeline (and blamed the British navy!).  You seem to be applying logical actions to Putin when history has shown us over and over that he prefers to stick two fingers up to logic.

[whelk]

Some analysis here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63855030

[buctootim]

45 minutes ago, whelk said:

Some analysis here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63855030

Thats North Sea Brent though. The Russian blend is Urals which is trading a lot lower. From $2 per barrel cheaper in January to $25 cheaper now.  

https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference#e750a86d

   

 

 

Edited 6 December, 2022 by buctootim

[skintsaint]

8 hours ago, buctootim said:

Thats North Sea Brent though. The Russian blend is Urals which is trading a lot lower. From $2 per barrel cheaper in January to $25 cheaper now.  

https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference#e750a86d

   

 

 

Off topic, but 4 messages in the dating app, smashing it!

[buctootim]

1 hour ago, skintsaint said:

Off topic, but 4 messages in the dating app, smashing it!

Haha, I just remembered why screengrabs are a really bad idea

[skintsaint]

34 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Haha, I just remembered why screengrabs are a really bad idea

Yeah, the snipping tool is much safer! 😁

[badgerx16]

The 'dragons teeth' the Russians are installing appear to be hollow sheet metal forming with a concrete sheath......

 

Edited 7 December, 2022 by badgerx16

[skintsaint]

52 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

The 'dragons teeth' the Russians are installing appear to be hollow sheet metal forming with a concrete sheath......

 

The boss of the factory who made these though has a cool new yacht to sail around in.

[cloggy saint]

Dragons dentures.

[badgerx16]

Are these long range strikes on Russian airfields taking place because their air defence S-300/400 systems have been moved to Ukraine to supplement the artillery there ?

[Weston Super Saint]

On 26/10/2022 at 16:01, buctootim said:

Ive got some photos somewhere of villages 1 hour outside of Ekaterinburg (one of the biggest cities in Russia). Dirt roads, turf roofed cottages, rope bridge across the river and handcarts.  

2010 but life in most of Russia outside the cities hasnt changed

 

On 26/10/2022 at 18:27, whelk said:

Is that your chick?

 

On 26/10/2022 at 18:28, buctootim said:

There are many cultural, educational, political and work reasons to visit Russia, not just to shag the locals. But yeah.   

 

15 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Off topic, but 4 messages in the dating app, smashing it!

 

13 hours ago, buctootim said:

Haha, I just remembered why screengrabs are a really bad idea

Oh well, I hope the 'chick' was good while she lasted  

[skintsaint]

[badgerx16]

A senior Russian diplomat has complained about the "aggressive behaviour" of the Ukrainian army.

[buctootim]

1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

A senior Russian diplomat has complained about the "aggressive behaviour" of the Ukrainian army.

Euphemism for ‘winning’

[skintsaint]

More aggressive behaviour happening it seems.

[badgerx16]

Russian TV explains to it's viewers how hard things are for people in the West now we don't use Russian gas

 

[skintsaint]

Anyone here from Cardiff able to tell me how the dog food is? And do you have healthier skin and coat?

[Lighthouse]

TBF the people of Cardiff have been eating pet food for decades.

[badgerx16]

The Russian Parliament is in the process of passing a law that decriminalises any action carried out in Ukraine if it can be considered to have been enacted "in the interests of the Russian Federation".

[Jonnyboy]

Shame that the Maiden coup ever took place really. All this death and destruction on both sides would likely never have happened. 

[badgerx16]

47 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Shame that the Maiden coup ever took place really. All this death and destruction on both sides would likely never have happened. 

Shame that Russia could not accept the free and democratic will of a country to shed itself of Kremlin tyranny and oppression.