Russia

[Jimmy_D]

1 minute ago, buctootim said:

That withdrawal has had a long drawn out out 'orchestrated' feel to it. Something was gonig on behind the scenes. 

Kherson is the biggest gain Russia have made during this war, they wouldn't be giving it up unless they absolutely had to.

There are a few things that have factored into it.

Firstly is Urkraine's tactical success in drawing a massive portion of Russia's more competent troops into Kherson, then severely restricting their resupply routes.

There was also the meeting with China, after which Russia's rhetoric about using nuclear weapons was massively rolled back. Seems it was made clear that, if it did all kick off, China's nukes wouldn't be on Russia's side.

Between Russia's conventional forces being too weak now to prevail, and Russia's nuclear bluff called, there's less and less prospect of any benefit from throwing forces away to delay Kherson being retaken.

Aside from that, there was the drone attack that crippled the Black Sea fleet, and has made it too dangerous for it to operate. This not only stopped any seabourne long range missile support, but also pushed Russia into their massive terror campaign where they used a large portion of their remaining land based precision missiles causing terrible pain on civilian targets. It was a long shot was hoping to force some political advantage that hasn't worked, and that didn't actually help them militarily.

Also, the public perception of the war has massively changed in Russia since the 'partial' mobilisation. It's getting through, even on state tv, that it has NOT been going well for Russia, and that, for all the sacrifice that they've been making, they're not getting any benefit for it. Putin has a terrible amount of control over the populace in Russia, but it's not infinite, especially now that, in effect, civilians are ending up on the front lines for Russia.

Russia retreating doesn't mean that the fight for Kherson is over of course, but Ukraine won't be relying on anything Russia say to guide their actions. They'll be doing it by the book and making sure any actions are based on properly sourced intelligence information.

[kyle04]

However :

 

 

 

 

[edit - this was not a response to Jimmy-D's post, posted at the same time. Ukraine have more than enough intelligence capability to assess the Russian forces in Kherson , there are more pressing battle fronts at the moment such as Pavlivka, Svatove, Bakhmut etc.]

Edited 9 November, 2022 by kyle04

[buctootim]

34 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

It's weird.  Russia should have been clearing out the furthest reaches of Europe by now, but haven't actually managed to take over (and hold) a single provincial capital in Ukraine yet.

So much for the mighty red army.

I think Putin and his cronies simply embezzled all the cash. For context In the US, which often cited as a very unequal society the top 0.1%, about 320,000 people, own 16% of the wealth. I read yesterday that in Russia just 500 people own more than 50% of the wealth.  

Edited 9 November, 2022 by buctootim

[skintsaint]

Them withdrawing from the city is a big low to Russia, but they have built three lines of trenches and fortifications the other side of the river.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/11/08/russia-is-creating-a-tiered-defense-in-kherson-oblast-and-fortifying-mariupol/

Will be a hard slog through the winter.

[badgerx16]

8 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Them withdrawing from the city is a big low to Russia, but they have built three lines of trenches and fortifications the other side of the river.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/11/08/russia-is-creating-a-tiered-defense-in-kherson-oblast-and-fortifying-mariupol/

Will be a hard slog through the winter.

So having failed to overthrow the Ukrainian Government, failed to de-Nazify, failed to eliminate the Satanists, Putin is desperately clinging on to his diminishing gains.

I suspect that Ukraine won't try to cross the Dnipro in the South West, but will leave the Russians on the East bank freezing and hungry, with their supply lines well in range of Ukrainian long range artillery, whilst the next focus for attack will switch to Zaporizhzia, from where they can drive South to Melitopol or Berdyansk, or even switch West and approach the Dnipro defences from behind.

Edited 10 November, 2022 by badgerx16

[kyle04]

I think many of those withdrawn troops, which are generally of a higher calibre, will be sent to the Donetsk fronts. Putin still has ambitions of taking the rest of the oblast and it has been the subject of a few (disastrous) offensives lately. The Wagner groups continue to press in certain areas, mainly for political reasons I suspect as they've gained virtually nothing in months. Ukraine now controlling Kharkiv means they can only attack from one direction and so far have been easy to repel. The idea is completely untennable , Russia may have more bodies on the frontlines, but their armour has been severely depleted, as has their air support.

Kadyrov has praised the Kherson withdrawal, thanking Russia for "looking after the guys", having previosly thrown General Lapin under the bus over the Lyman retreat.

[farawaysaint]

17 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

I think many of those withdrawn troops, which are generally of a higher calibre, will be sent to the Donetsk fronts. Putin still has ambitions of taking the rest of the oblast and it has been the subject of a few (disastrous) offensives lately. The Wagner groups continue to press in certain areas, mainly for political reasons I suspect as they've gained virtually nothing in months. Ukraine now controlling Kharkiv means they can only attack from one direction and so far have been easy to repel. The idea is completely untennable , Russia may have more bodies on the frontlines, but their armour has been severely depleted, as has their air support.

Kadyrov has praised the Kherson withdrawal, thanking Russia for "looking after the guys", having previosly thrown General Lapin under the bus over the Lyman retreat.

Actually there are reports that Wagner are being paid a bonus based on land taken so it’s financial incentives driving Wagner advances.

[kyle04]

5 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Actually there are reports that Wagner are being paid a bonus based on land taken so it’s financial incentives driving Wagner advances.

Of course the money as well as far as the soldiers are concerned, but the Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin certainly seems to have political ambitions as well, likes to be seen as the only man that gets things done. Meanwhile the Russian corpses continue to pile up.

[badgerx16]

Since the 'annexation' Kherson counts, at least in the Kremlin's eyes, as sovereign Russian territory. In which case there is a paradox due to the Russian Criminal Code;

Supporting the retreat from Kherson means abandoning Russian territory - punishable by imprisonment.

Opposing the retreat from Kherson means calling into question the decisions of the Russian military high command - punishable by imprisonment.

 

 

[buctootim]

Oddly satisfying! 

 

[Jimmy_D]

4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Since the 'annexation' Kherson counts, at least in the Kremlin's eyes, as sovereign Russian territory. In which case there is a paradox due to the Russian Criminal Code;

Supporting the retreat from Kherson means abandoning Russian territory - punishable by imprisonment.

Opposing the retreat from Kherson means calling into question the decisions of the Russian military high command - punishable by imprisonment.

 

 

One Russian state tv host threaded the needle on that.

[skintsaint]

3 hours ago, buctootim said:

Oddly satisfying! 

 

Only works if the odd one explodes with an artillery strike.

[Jimmy_D]

Still one hell of a clearing operation to perform, but the Ukrainian flag has been raised and Kherson has been liberated.

Historic day, but also one to remember those who gave everything to make this possible.

[Jimmy_D]

 

[Jimmy_D]

 

[Jimmy_D]

 

[kyle04]

The retreating Russians were given a traditional Ukrainian send off :

 

All bridges, including the Antonovsky have been completely blown by all accounts, so it may be an artillery slugfest across the river for a while, which would be in Ukraine's favour as they have more range and accuracy than the Russian stuff.

The "end of the beginning" perhaps?

[badgerx16]

14 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

The retreating Russians were given a traditional Ukrainian send off :

 

All bridges, including the Antonovsky have been completely blown by all accounts, so it may be an artillery slugfest across the river for a while, which would be in Ukraine's favour as they have more range and accuracy than the Russian stuff.

The "end of the beginning" perhaps?

Ukraine also now occupy the higher ground, as that bank of the river overlooks the Russians.

Edited 11 November, 2022 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

On 26/07/2022 at 12:59, manji said:

Not going to add to this but Ukraine are losing and losing badly. USA had enough and looking to drop Kelensky.

Thought this deserved resurrection.

[skintsaint]

Strange seeing the army welcomed in large numbers. Thought the residents voted over 85% against being part of Ukraine?

[whelk]

13 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Thought this deserved resurrection.

Deliberate false Pentagon intel to flush out Manji?

[cloggy saint]

15 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Thought this deserved resurrection.

Where is komrad Manji to put his inimitable spin on things?

[badgerx16]

4 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

Where is komrad Manji to put his inimitable spin on things?

Alexei has been MIA from this thread for a while as well.

[skintsaint]

[buctootim]

43 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Alexei has been MIA from this thread for a while as well.

His parents must be sick of driving that bleedin Lada. 

Edited 12 November, 2022 by buctootim

[buctootim]

17 hours ago, kyle04 said:

 

All bridges, including the Antonovsky have been completely blown by all accounts, so it may be an artillery slugfest across the river for a while, which would be in Ukraine's favour as they have more range and accuracy than the Russian stuff.

The "end of the beginning" perhaps?

I read a few weeks ago that the plan was likely to push south from Zaporhizia until they hit the Sea of Azov near Melitopol - ie to divide the Russian held area into two. Then bomb the Kerch bridge again and cut the whole Crimea and south of Kherson Oblast off from supplies.  No idea if true or not but makes sense.    

[skintsaint]

Interestingly read that Ukraine now can stop most of the fresh water going into the Crimea again. Good bargaining chip that.

[kyle04]

1 hour ago, cloggy saint said:

Where is komrad Manji to put his inimitable spin on things?

In his statement, Igor said that no equipment or men were lost during the "prepared" withdrawal.

That at least must be of some comfort to Manji.

[kyle04]

15 minutes ago, buctootim said:

I read a few weeks ago that the plan was likely to push south from Zaporhizia until they hit the Sea of Azov near Melitopol - ie to divide the Russian held area into two. Then bomb the Kerch bridge again and cut the whole Crimea and south of Kherson Oblast off from supplies.  No idea if true or not but makes sense.    

This may be a bluff :

 

If AFU can secure a foothold here it would be a doorway into the eastern part of the territory?

[skintsaint]

9 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

This may be a bluff :

 

If AFU can secure a foothold here it would be a doorway into the eastern part of the territory?

Can't see the point in that, not only a very risky move to capture, but to hold and supply would be a pain.

[buctootim]

7 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

This may be a bluff :

 

If AFU can secure a foothold here it would be a doorway into the eastern part of the territory?

I dont see the logic in that. It would be very high risk - essentially creating the same resupply problems for the landing force there as the Russians decided were insurmountable in Kherson. Much better to keep the territory / battlefield contiguous I would have thought.  

[Colinjb]

7 minutes ago, buctootim said:

I dont see the logic in that. It would be very high risk - essentially creating the same resupply problems for the landing force there as the Russians decided were insurmountable in Kherson. Much better to keep the territory / battlefield contiguous I would have thought.  

Would expect more of a push towards the Sea of Azov, cut off the land bridge to Crimea and catch anyone retreated back from Kherson.

[kyle04]

11 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Can't see the point in that, not only a very risky move to capture, but to hold and supply would be a pain.

 

10 minutes ago, buctootim said:

I dont see the logic in that. It would be very high risk - essentially creating the same resupply problems for the landing force there as the Russians decided were insurmountable in Kherson. Much better to keep the territory / battlefield contiguous I would have thought.  

Would have to agree, it dosen't look remotely viable, the idea alone may force Russia to place some forces there but that's about all.

The Melitopol offensive seems a little too ambitious at the moment as well. This could be it for a while as far as large AFU gains are concerned unless the Luhansk fronts collapse?

[buctootim]

13 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

The Melitopol offensive seems a little too ambitious at the moment as well. This could be it for a while as far as large AFU gains are concerned unless the Luhansk fronts collapse?

They may just consolidate and wait until Spring. But the most likely imo is an isolation of Crimea and push towards it. The rationale being that the Donbass war has been going on since 2014 and defence positions are very well dug in. Its really hard and costly for either side to advance, but that isnt the case with the south of Kherson. If it started to look as if Russia was potentially going to lose Crimea they would throw Donbass unbder the bus imo - give it back to Ukraine and negotiate some kind of time limited lease agreement for Crimea.  

Edited 12 November, 2022 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

3 hours ago, kyle04 said:

This may be a bluff :

 

If AFU can secure a foothold here it would be a doorway into the eastern part of the territory?

I think it is more to do with a Spec Ops raid to eliminate Russian missile batteries operating on the spit.

 

On a lighter note; a retreating Russian claims to have stolen a racoon from Kherson zoo. Ukraine have offerred to exchange 10 captured mobiks to secure the racoon's safe return.

Edited 12 November, 2022 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

On 10/11/2022 at 21:44, buctootim said:

Oddly satisfying! 

 

[Johnny Bognor]

On 12/11/2022 at 12:39, skintsaint said:

 

Indeed, the new T-99 tank, due to be launched next year, only has one gear.......Reverse

[skintsaint]

On 12/11/2022 at 21:45, kyle04 said:

This may be a bluff :

 

If AFU can secure a foothold here it would be a doorway into the eastern part of the territory?

 

[buctootim]

Interesting thing to say...

Ukraine will return Crimea without a fight against the backdrop of internal struggle in Russia, - Defense Minister Reznikov

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592110501202481152/photo/1

Edited 14 November, 2022 by buctootim

[skintsaint]

Some ballsy lads on this BMP.

 

[badgerx16]

 

[badgerx16]

31 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Interesting thing to say...

Ukraine will return Crimea without a fight against the backdrop of internal struggle in Russia, - Defense Minister Reznikov

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592110501202481152/photo/1

Videos on Reddit of people in Yalta, Crimea, out on the streets celebrating the liberation of Kherson.

[kyle04]

40 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Some ballsy lads on this BMP.

 

I caught this last night, f*** me those Ukrainians were lucky that the Russians fled, even though they had numerical advantage and seemed to be reasonably well armed. I think the BMP could have flanked them if need be though and wiped them out with the auto canon.

Morale obviously not too good in the Russian trenches these days

[buctootim]

[badgerx16]

Putin's pal Gianni Infantino calls for a ceasefire during the World Cup.

 

Self interested twat.

Edited 15 November, 2022 by badgerx16

[Saint in Paradise]

"Uh oh...."

1 hour ago...Polish prime minister has called an urgent meeting of a committee for national security and defense affairs

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Two people have been killed in Poland after two stray rockets landed near the border with Ukraine.

The rockets fell in the town of Przewodów, hitting grain dryers. The police, prosecutor's office and the army are reportedly already on the site.

Some analysts have suggested the rockets' intended target may have been Lviv, a Ukrainian city about 100km south of Przewodów.

           It's about 4 miles over the border, almost directly north of Lviv

[Jimmy_D]

47 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Putin's pal Gianni Infantino calls for a ceasefire during the World Cup.

 

Self interested twat.

Considering it seems at least one Russian missile just came down on Polish territory, that seems unlikely.

It's possible that Poland will invoke Article 5.

[badgerx16]

23 minutes ago, Saint in Paradise said:

"Uh oh...."

1 hour ago...Polish prime minister has called an urgent meeting of a committee for national security and defense affairs

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Two people have been killed in Poland after two stray rockets landed near the border with Ukraine.

The rockets fell in the town of Przewodów, hitting grain dryers. The police, prosecutor's office and the army are reportedly already on the site.

Some analysts have suggested the rockets' intended target may have been Lviv, a Ukrainian city about 100km south of Przewodów.

           It's about 4 miles over the border, almost directly north of Lviv

 

22 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Considering it seems at least one Russian missile just came down on Polish territory, that seems unlikely.

It's possible that Poland will invoke Article 5.

 

[badgerx16]

I don't think this is anywhere near Article 5 territory. More likely increased air defence along the Ukraine / NATO border which co-incidentally will range across western Ukraine, so that any Russian munitions coming too near will be zapped, just in case.

[Jimmy_D]

2 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

I don't think this is anywhere near Article 5 territory. More likely increased air defence along the Ukraine / NATO border which co-incidentally will range across western Ukraine, so that any Russian munitions coming too near will be zapped, just in case.

Article 5 just means there has to be a joint NATO response if it's called for. Increased air defence along NATO's border could be one result of that.

Point is, Russia just now, from a treaty point of view, landed missiles on the territory of every NATO member.