Russia

[kyle04]

19 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Reports coming out that Russia have ended Special Operations, and are now at “War” 

god knows if that is true, and if so, what that means (if anything)

lots of reports that as we speak, Parts of Ukraine’s national infrastructure is being hit and Russia are telling their nationals to get out of Ukraine ASAP. Again, no idea if that is just bollox 

The live ua map , aside from twitter posts, would indicate Russia is unleashing missiles all over Ukraine :

https://liveuamap.com

 

[farawaysaint]

3 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

The live ua map , aside from twitter posts, would indicate Russia is unleashing missiles all over Ukraine :

https://liveuamap.com

 

Apparently they have knocked out power to a good portion of Ukraine by targeting power plants.

Hardly military infrastructure.

[badgerx16]

Bit of a joke if Putin declares all out war whilst his army is running away. It would also remove the self-imposed restriction on Ukrainian forces striking across the border.

Edited 11 September, 2022 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

46 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Apparently they have knocked out power to a good portion of Ukraine by targeting power plants.

Hardly military infrastructure.

Sounds like Russia have reacted to their humiliation in Kharkiv by committing yet another war crime and launching an estimated $80M of missiles at power infrastructure.

Power is already being restored in most places about an hour later.

I reckon they’d have had it done in 45 mins, but it is a Sunday after all.

[badgerx16]

For those that love unsubstantiated rumours :

"There is chatter on #Ukraine 🇺🇦 channels that I stress is unconfirmed:

1. Russian 🇷🇺 units in Kherson began negotiations to surrender.

2. Fighting has broken out between RU & Kadyrov units in the area."

 

( Kadyrov means mercenary Chechens ).

[badgerx16]

Zelensky tonight;

""Do you still think we are one people? Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions? Don't you really get it? Don't you understand who we are? What we stand for? What we are all about? Read my lips: Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you. Without you. Without food or without you? Without you. Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your friendship and brotherhood. But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food...and WITHOUT you!""

[Lighthouse]

I could sure go a Belarusian revolution right about now.

[buctootim]

34 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I could sure go a Belarusian revolution right about now.

Why stop there.  I read one fairly persuasive academic earlier saying how the whole of Russia could well break apart once the illusion of a strong centre is shattered. Russia is a mish mash of different peoples and regions many of whom feel exploited by Moscow - Siberia, the Urals and the Far East all feel they get a raw deal from the centre. A friend in Omsk told me when this all started this would end in a Russian civil war. I thought she was beingh over the top then but now not so sure. 

[buctootim]

40 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Zelensky tonight;

""Do you still think we are one people? Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions? Don't you really get it? Don't you understand who we are? What we stand for? What we are all about? Read my lips: Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you. Without you. Without food or without you? Without you. Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your friendship and brotherhood. But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food...and WITHOUT you!""

What a great speech

[badgerx16]

2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Why stop there.  I read one fairly persuasive academic earlier saying how the whole of Russia could well break apart once the illusion of a strong centre is shattered. Russia is a mish mash of different peoples and regions many of whom feel exploited by Moscow - Siberia, the Urals and the Far East all feel they get a raw deal from the centre. A friend in Omsk told me when this all started this would end in a Russian civil war. I thought she was beingh over the top then but now not so sure. 

Well, in the main they're the ones dying in Ukraine.

[Lighthouse]

26 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Why stop there.  I read one fairly persuasive academic earlier saying how the whole of Russia could well break apart once the illusion of a strong centre is shattered. Russia is a mish mash of different peoples and regions many of whom feel exploited by Moscow - Siberia, the Urals and the Far East all feel they get a raw deal from the centre. A friend in Omsk told me when this all started this would end in a Russian civil war. I thought she was beingh over the top then but now not so sure. 

We should get NATO and the EU to offer Belarus membership, if they depose Lukashenko. It'd be some of the best political sh*t-housing I've ever seen.

[kyle04]

19 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Well, in the main they're the ones dying in Ukraine.

It's in Moscows interests to keep these people poor and without hope of a better future, so when cannon fodder are needed the lure of a years pay per month is hard to refuse. They never know the horror of the situation until it's too late. The Moscow "elite" put no value on their lives whatsoever. The was a genuine situation recently when Ukraine offered to release a Russian POW, just one, for 15 Ukrainian corpses. Russia refused as they saw no value in him.

[farawaysaint]

3 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

It's in Moscows interests to keep these people poor and without hope of a better future, so when cannon fodder are needed the lure of a years pay per month is hard to refuse. They never know the horror of the situation until it's too late. The Moscow "elite" put no value on their lives whatsoever. The was a genuine situation recently when Ukraine offered to release a Russian POW, just one, for 15 Ukrainian corpses. Russia refused as they saw no value in him.

In a relatively short amount of time (30 years or so) slavic Russians will be outnumbered in Russia by minorities (particularly Muslim ethnic minorities).

Putin is well aware of this demographic “crisis” and it has been a matter on which he has spoken repeatedly. I feel like the Moscow elite consider the minority citizens as not only expendable but in fact see benefits to reducing their population numbers.

[buctootim]

 

 

[Jimmy_D]

The tone definitely seems to be changing on Russian state TV.

 

[skintsaint]

9 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

The tone definitely seems to be changing on Russian state TV.

 

A few of those guys will be falling out of windows soon enough I'm sure. I still can't get the whole Nazi regime angle though.

[Jimmy_D]

21 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

A few of those guys will be falling out of windows soon enough I'm sure. I still can't get the whole Nazi regime angle though.

It’s dehumanising Ukrainians. Repeat it often enough and any and all measures taken against them, including war crimes, will be seen not only as acceptable, but justified, in Russia at least.

The Internet and access to non-Russian news sources dilutes that somewhat, among some Russians at least, but it’s still depressingly effective.

On lighter note, Ukrainian troops finally ran into some stiffer resistance in Kharkiv.

 

[badgerx16]

Russian mouthpiece on BBC R4 a few minutes ago, saying Russia needs to go with a partial mobilisation to counter the "terrorist state" that is forcibly conscripting men in shopping centres and off the street. Didn't realise that Putin had declared war on LPR.

[aintforever]

6 hours ago, skintsaint said:

A few of those guys will be falling out of windows soon enough I'm sure. I still can't get the whole Nazi regime angle though.

They need to label them Nazis to make them a legitimate target in the eyes of the Russian people.

I don’t think it’s a new thing, I’ve read a few accounts from WW2 where anyone who opposed the Communists were labeled Nazis so they could be done away with, one was even a survivor of Auchwitz. Also I expect for many in Eastern Europe the thought of being taken over by Russia was worse than Germany so it made sense to side with the Nazis even though they were against the ideology.

[badgerx16]

UA are using their MLRS to bombard Russian positions with leaflets on how to surrender safely.

[kyle04]

12 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

For those that love unsubstantiated rumours :

"There is chatter on #Ukraine 🇺🇦 channels that I stress is unconfirmed:

1. Russian 🇷🇺 units in Kherson began negotiations to surrender.

2. Fighting has broken out between RU & Kadyrov units in the area."

 

( Kadyrov means mercenary Chechens ).

 

[Fan The Flames]

4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Russian mouthpiece on BBC R4 a few minutes ago, saying Russia needs to go with a partial mobilisation to counter the "terrorist state" that is forcibly conscripting men in shopping centres and off the street. Didn't realise that Putin had declared war on LPR.

He also said that the UA is just a proxy army for the USA and UK. They love to blame the evil west 

I was distracted on the last bit where he said Putin was too moderate or something.

[Jimmy_D]

Appears to be genuine, based on comments that it’s on their social media. If it is, it appears that political dissent against Putin might be starting to be voiced more.

[badgerx16]

There is an interview on Reddit with a captured Russian tank crewman. He is an ethnic Tatar, and was posted to Ukraine after 1 week on conversion training; he was previously a torpedo operator at a Baltic Fleet naval base and was forcibly transferred. Luckily for him he was captured before joining the Turret Tossing Olympics.

[Weston Super Saint]

37 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Appears to be genuine, based on comments that it’s on their social media. If it is, it appears that political dissent against Putin might be starting to be voiced more.

Looks like those sanctions still aren't working  

[badgerx16]

55 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Appears to be genuine, based on comments that it’s on their social media. If it is, it appears that political dissent against Putin might be starting to be voiced more.

24 hour emergency glazers are on permanent standby.

[buctootim]

2 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

Appears to be genuine, based on comments that it’s on their social media. If it is, it appears that political dissent against Putin might be starting to be voiced more.

Welcome but still small. There are over 200 districts in Moscow alone with 450 councillors. Probs slightly smaller number in St Petersburg. 18 is nothing sadly.    

[Lighthouse]

2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Welcome but still small. There are over 200 districts in Moscow alone with 450 councillors. Probs slightly smaller number in St Petersburg. 18 is nothing sadly.    

Still, that's a lot of terrible accidents to try and organise. It's all going to end up like Blackadder, "the acting returning officer very sadly, accidentally cut off his head whilst combing his hair."

[buctootim]

9 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Still, that's a lot of terrible accidents to try and organise. It's all going to end up like Blackadder, "the acting returning officer very sadly, accidentally cut off his head whilst combing his hair."

Wouldnt be surprised if the FSB organised it to make Putin look strong with over 97% support and to send a message about cowards who have panicked 

Edited 12 September, 2022 by buctootim

[Jimmy_D]

Reports that Russian troops in Kherson are in the process of surrendering. Hope that goes as smoothly as it can.

This past week has been incredible.

[Tamesaint]

On 10/09/2022 at 08:32, whelk said:

Has Batman posted recently on this thread? Must be killing him seeing his boy Putin getting such

Good news.

Our friend Alexei is still alive. He has posted on the main forum. I am sure that as I write  he is preparing a post amplifying whatever post he finds on Russia Today.

 

[badgerx16]

Just posted on Reddit

 

Meanwhile, reports that Putin has cancelled meetings with Defence Ministers and has gone to his Dacha in Sochi.

Edited 12 September, 2022 by badgerx16

[Colinjb]

3 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Just posted on Reddit

 

So, sue for peace now to secure territories held since 2014 and the Crimea landbridge? 

[kyle04]

3 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Just posted on Reddit

 

Beat me to it.

A little more insight  here :

 

 

[badgerx16]

8 minutes ago, Colinjb said:

So, sue for peace now to secure territories held since 2014 and the Crimea landbridge? 

Not acceptable to Ukraine, and why should they negotiate at the moment ?

[Colinjb]

Just now, badgerx16 said:

Not acceptable to Ukraine, and why should they negotiate at the moment ?

Quite right. Putin needs some spoils to claim though. He will not accept any perceived defeat. 

[badgerx16]

7 minutes ago, Colinjb said:

Quite right. Putin needs some spoils to claim though. He will not accept any perceived defeat. 

Putin will have to survive in order to accept his defeat.

[Lighthouse]

The way things seem to be going at the moment, I’d drive the Russians out of every inch of Ukrainian soil, Crimea and all. If they go back to post-2014, Russia hasn’t really lost. If they crush Russia it will dissuade them from ever attempting this again and hopefully spell the end of Putin.

Personally, I’d find a square metre of worthless, remote swampland somewhere on the Russia border, pile it with cow manure and give it to Russia as a gift/reward for their ‘special military operation’.

[Jimmy_D]

We may be closer to the end than we realise at the moment.

Between struggling to find volunteers motivated even from the most desperate sources, and Russian logistics being unable to deal with their current level of troops, it’s unlikely even full mobilisation would make any difference at this point.

Withdrawing would be humiliating for Russia, and Putin, especially if they need to give up Crimea for Ukraine to accept it, but it’s the least worst option they have. Unfortunately I don’t see them seeing it that way, they’d rather be able to blame troops running away as rock-bottom morale is likely to see events like Kharkiv repeated.

[cloggy saint]

This is all well and good but is there any possibility Putin will unleash tactical nukes if only to save face?

[Lighthouse]

8 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

This is all well and good but is there any possibility Putin will unleash tactical nukes if only to save face?

I don’t see how and with what rationale. For a start there isn’t a literal big red button, they will need the military to authorise the launch of anything like that and their support for him is rapidly waning as they are getting humiliated in Ukraine. Secondly Putin has been trying to market this a special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazis. That’s a pretty hard sell if you nuke one of the places you’re supposed to be liberating and will probably cross a line with the likes of China.

[cloggy saint]

Just now, Lighthouse said:

I don’t see how and with what rationale. For a start there isn’t a literal big red button, they will need the military to authorise the launch of anything like that and there support for him is rapidly waning as they are getting humiliated in Ukraine. Secondly Putin has been trying to market this a special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazis. That’s a pretty hard sell if you nuke one of the places you’re supposed to be liberating and will probably cross a line with the likes of China.

I hear you, but cornered rats and all that ....

[farawaysaint]

18 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

This is all well and good but is there any possibility Putin will unleash tactical nukes if only to save face?

While I imagine there are dumber things to do than nuking the country next to you in terms of keeping your own population onside but not many.

Can you imagine the panic in the Russian border regions?

Edited 12 September, 2022 by farawaysaint

[egg]

14 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

This is all well and good but is there any possibility Putin will unleash tactical nukes if only to save face?

You'd like to think not, but the bloke's thinking isn't rational, and he's seemingly got to do something to give the illusion of some kind of victory. If Ukraine regain what's left of Mariupol or that coast, they've gained nothing in reality and he'll be backed into a corner. 

[Lighthouse]

7 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

I hear you, but cornered rats and all that ....

Cornered rats don’t turn around and bite into the nearest electrical cable in the hope that somehow it’ll all be fine. As ridiculous as the Russian mantra has been across this whole circus, nuking your neighbour, who has the military backing of NATO states in the USA and UK, is an entirely different level. That’s one step away from every man and his dog being blown into radioactive dust.

In the Cold War, the fear of all out nuclear annihilation wasn’t just a western thing. It kept the average Russian awake at night too at times, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis. It’s not something anyone other than perhaps a deranged Putin would take steps towards.

[kyle04]

11 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

This is all well and good but is there any possibility Putin will unleash tactical nukes if only to save face?

It's possible, but it would contravene Russia's nuclear doctrine, Russia itself is not under existential threat, and the implications for them would be catastrophic. Aside from this option Putin has very few cards left to play, seemingly unable to mobilize the required number of troops, his forces either on the run or bogged down in the Donbas, and growing unrest in Russia itself. I would only worry about this if AFU were advancing into Crimea, which was "Russian" prior to this conflict in the eyes of the Kremlin.

I think they will continue with missile strikes from the Caspian Sea, being the spiteful bastards that they are, and attempt a big offensive in the Donetsk region, their only hope of salvaging anything from this.

[whelk]

Not heard any serious analyst even hinting that he would use a nuke as would be catastrophic.

oooh Putin’s so hard let’s not beat him too bad so he saves face. Fuck off 

I absolutely hate this he needs an ‘off ramp’ argument, No he doesn’t. Only the west being so weak has led him to where we are. Now the bully is getting beaten. We need to beat him to death and then piss on his face.

[egg]

10 minutes ago, whelk said:

Not heard any serious analyst even hinting that he would use a nuke as would be catastrophic.

oooh Putin’s so hard let’s not beat him too bad so he saves face. Fuck off 

I absolutely hate this he needs an ‘off ramp’ argument, No he doesn’t. Only the west being so weak has led him to where we are. Now the bully is getting beaten. We need to beat him to death and then piss on his face.

I'm not sure anyone has said otherwise. Ukraine need to keep up the attack, and the west need to keep up the support. The bully absolutely needs to be beaten, but that doesn't alter that he's a loon who could lash out in any way. 

[Lighthouse]

57 minutes ago, egg said:

I'm not sure anyone has said otherwise. Ukraine need to keep up the attack, and the west need to keep up the support. The bully absolutely needs to be beaten, but that doesn't alter that he's a loon who could lash out in any way. 

As I said, he doesn’t have a the capability on his own without the obedience of the military. I think people are massively underestimating what a massive deal an unprovoked, nuclear first strike is. These weapons have only ever been used once in anger. 80 years ago, to end a world war, when no other country on the planet had the capability to respond.

Remember, the whole country has been driven to paranoia by anti-NATO propaganda, completely of their own volition. There is no way they’re going to try and bluff us on nuclear weapons. Not when half of theirs probably don’t work anyway.

[badgerx16]

Further round the Black Sea, over in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan has started shelling Armenis - Armenia pleads with Putin for assistance.