Russia

[skintsaint]

17 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

Meanwhile Ukraine’s counterattack in the North-East of Ukraine has made astounding progress to bring the biggest logistics centre Russia has, in Kupiansk, under fire control.

It was a great faint, the talk was a full scale offensive on Kherson which Russia shuffled down extra troops down to from the north east. In reality there was a push but not as big as expected in Kherson, but also a push in the NE.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response

Edited 9 September, 2022 by skintsaint

[kyle04]

50km gained in 3 days.

The Russians are sending reinforcements from Izium however, hope AFU haven't overextended themselves and have enough firepower to knock them out.

[Jimmy_D]

10 hours ago, skintsaint said:

It was a great faint, the talk was a full scale offensive on Kherson which Russia shuffled down extra troops down to from the north east. In reality there was a push but not as big as expected in Kherson, but also a push in the NE.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response

Kherson wasn’t a feint. It’s a massively important strategic location that Russia can not allow to fall back to Ukraine, the only major city that’s fallen to Russia, critical to their land bridge to Crimea and Crimea’s water supply.

Russia are defending it because they need to, and even with throwing everything they have into that defence, it’s not enough. Ukraine have trapped a huge number of Russian troops without regular resupply and between attrition and surrenders are taking them out of the fight. By itself it’s a massive success for Ukraine.

Kharkiv is more the result of reacting to Russia’s reaction to Kherson, than being the original target. They’ve obviously been ready to take advantage of any opportunities that presented themselves elsewhere.

It is connected, in that part of the reason for Ukraine making so much noise about Kherson was that they knew that would draw in reinforcements from other areas of the front to somewhere they knew they could achieve a level of control over, where they could pin Russian troops into a massively disadvantaged position, but Russia leaving their biggest logistics hub in Ukraine so weakly defended can’t have been something they were counting on.

Splitting their assault forces was a risk for Ukraine, albeit a well calculated one. They obviously had solid intelligence on Russian defence, and Ukraine do have thousands of troops in reserve as a result of UK and EU training.

We’re starting to see now the benefit of Ukraine’s patience. For months they’ve been concentrating on making any progress Russia made as expensive as possible, and making full use of any capability they have to target Russian logistics. It’s like a boxer that’s been targeting body shots for a few rounds, and Ukraine are starting to be able to cause Russia several problems at once, with Russia not fully able to deal with any of them.

[badgerx16]

Ukraine "War Gamed" the current operations with NATO for weeks before any offensive moves commenced. Part of the training Ukrainian troops and commanders have received is on flexibility and opportunity.

Edited 9 September, 2022 by badgerx16

[buctootim]

Kupyansk! 

[skintsaint]

https://goo.gl/maps/zfGgxxdjPrEBVCAt6

Someone put a decent amount of effort into this.

[Jimmy_D]

2 hours ago, buctootim said:

Kupyansk! 

Reports emerging that Russia have retreated from Kupyansk and it’s been fully liberated.

It’s a huge development, it cuts off the entire North East of Ukraine from Russian resupply.

[buctootim]

Blind panic! 

 

 

[kyle04]

AFU reportedly approaching Izium , Vitaliy Ganchev (Kremlin administrator for Kharkiv based in Izium) already fled to Russian border town. This is nuts.

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, kyle04 said:

AFU reportedly approaching Izium , Vitaliy Ganchev (Kremlin administrator for Kharkiv based in Izium) already fled to Russian border town. This is nuts.

The most important weapon is morale. One side is confident in their abilities, is well equipped, and is motivated, the other is not.

 

One of the best historical examples is the first North African campaign by the British against the Italians in WW2; 30 thousand British attacked and routed ten times their number, taking over 120 thousand prisoners.

 

Edited 9 September, 2022 by badgerx16

[skintsaint]

3 hours ago, buctootim said:

Blind panic! 

 

 

I mean there were ua forces lining that street shooting at the tank.. I'd probably panic.😅

[whelk]

8 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

The most important weapon is morale. One side is confident in their abilities, is well equipped, and is motivated, the other is not.

 

One of the best historical examples is the first North African campaign by the British against the Italians in WW2; 30 thousand British attacked and routed ten times their number, taking over 120 thousand prisoners.

 

I thin’ even the useless Russians might be able to beat the Italians

[whelk]

Has Batman posted recently on this thread? Must be killing him seeing his boy Putin getting such setbacks

[Colinjb]

Unconfirmed reports that Izyum has been liberated.

[Jimmy_D]

52 minutes ago, Colinjb said:

Unconfirmed reports that Izyum has been liberated.

One of Ukraine’s biggest problems at this point is genuinely going to be dealing with the sheer number of PoWs they’ve been capturing.

[buctootim]

1 hour ago, Colinjb said:

Unconfirmed reports that Izyum has been liberated.

Saw a video of Ukrainian troops in centre of Izium at dawn. Apparently the Russians just up and left without a fight. 

[buctootim]

13 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

One of Ukraine’s biggest problems at this point is genuinely going to be dealing with the sheer number of PoWs they’ve been capturing.

Reports seem to indicate they are mostly just leaving. Whether is is organised withdrawal into 'core' territory of Donetsk and Lughansk or mass desertion is the big question. 

Edited 10 September, 2022 by buctootim

[skintsaint]

1 hour ago, Colinjb said:

Unconfirmed reports that Izyum has been liberated.

and Donetsk airport.

[buctootim]

3 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

and Donetsk airport.

Oh wow. There and Debaltseve have real significance for Ukraine. If they retake those two its massively symbolic for both them and Russia

Edited 10 September, 2022 by buctootim

[kyle04]

19 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

One of Ukraine’s biggest problems at this point is genuinely going to be dealing with the sheer number of PoWs they’ve been capturing.

Reports of AFU approaching Lyman, and that they've taken Yampil, both to the south of Izium.

They're all over the Russians it seems.

Masses of equipment and ammo abandoned as well.

Edited 10 September, 2022 by kyle04

[Lighthouse]

They’ll be in Vladivostok by Christmas.

[skintsaint]

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

One of Ukraine’s biggest problems at this point is genuinely going to be dealing with the sheer number of PoWs they’ve been capturing.

Appaently they've solved this by giving them all Ukrainian passports.

[skintsaint]

Ah we were all wrong, they weren't running it was all planned. Doesn't really explain all the other areas though.

 

Edited 10 September, 2022 by skintsaint

[Whitey Grandad]

1 minute ago, skintsaint said:

Ah we were all wrong, they weren't running it was all planned. Doesn't really explain all the other areas though.

 

They were merely advancing in another direction.

[Jimmy_D]

1 hour ago, skintsaint said:

Rumours floating around that partisans raised a Ukrainian flag overnight and Russia started retreating before Ukraine forces even got there.

[Jimmy_D]

7 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Ah we were all wrong, they weren't running it was all planned. Doesn't really explain all the other areas though.

 

Russia’s Wagner mercenary group not too impressed judging by the response they put out.

 

[Jimmy_D]

Moscow city centre closed off.

I’m assuming it’s related to preparation for Moscow Day celebrations but I’m not entirely discounting the possibility of that being the line that Russia are falling back to…

[buctootim]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Moscow city centre closed off.

I’m assuming it’s related to preparation for Moscow Day celebrations but I’m not entirely discounting the possibility of that being the line that Russia are falling back to…

Apparently today Putin's main activity was opening the Ferris wheel. Talking about the biggest military reversal in modern Russian history not a priority. 

[kyle04]

6 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Moscow city centre closed off.

I’m assuming it’s related to preparation for Moscow Day celebrations but I’m not entirely discounting the possibility of that being the line that Russia are falling back to…

Don't tell me AFU are at the gates of Moscow already!

[kyle04]

2 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Ah we were all wrong, they weren't running it was all planned. Doesn't really explain all the other areas though.

 

I just love Igor, Mr "44 HIMARS and a Ukrainian Death Star have been destroyed". There are two main problems with his assessment though:

1) Usually during a troop redeployment the soldiers are supposed to bring their equipment with them, or at least destroy it.

2) Ukraine are running through the entire Kharkiv oblast at will, as well as parts of Luhansk reportedly, which really will piss Putin off as they've only recently "liberated" it.

The US are sending the excaliber artillery shells , finally, and probably the ATACMS long range HIMARS. Russia are buying shells from North Korea. Add to that the morale factor, I wonder how long it will be until the Wagner soldiers decide to bail out.

[buctootim]

Its starting to look like wholesale collapse. Rumours 'leader' of DPR has fled. Huge amount of abandoned equipment 

 

 

[badgerx16]

The comments underneath suggest not. However, it sure looks like it has been abandoned rather than parked.

[Lighthouse]

The next few days could be interesting. It’s probably wishful thinking to hope for a full scale collapse but Russia could lose territory they’ve held since 2014. Taking Donetsk would be a hell of a coup for the UA but they probably need to regroup first.

[badgerx16]

 

 

Do you think the Ukrainians need to be told that they are losing ?

[Lighthouse]

I wonder where the best tactical place to advance next could be. A punch down towards Mariupol, from west of Donetsk could cut off the link between South and East. Perhaps they’ll just look to consolidate with modest gains in the NE and around Kherson and try to freeze the Russians out in a couple of months.

[Jimmy_D]

Seems Russia are retreating from the entire Kharkiv Oblast.

I guess it’s an attempt to create a line for Russia to hold and stop the cascading rout in the North East.

I think Ukraine are likely to try and keep up the momentum, if they can keep moving at even a fraction of this rate, it won’t take much to break Russian morale in other areas.

[Colinjb]

12 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I wonder where the best tactical place to advance next could be. A punch down towards Mariupol, from west of Donetsk could cut off the link between South and East. Perhaps they’ll just look to consolidate with modest gains in the NE and around Kherson and try to freeze the Russians out in a couple of months.

And once the land bridge is broken, take out the Kerch Bridge. Kherson was the distraction, they must keep pushing now.

[badgerx16]

15 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I wonder where the best tactical place to advance next could be. A punch down towards Mariupol, from west of Donetsk could cut off the link between South and East. Perhaps they’ll just look to consolidate with modest gains in the NE and around Kherson and try to freeze the Russians out in a couple of months.

 

14 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Seems Russia are retreating from the entire Kharkiv Oblast.

I guess it’s an attempt to create a line for Russia to hold and stop the cascading rout in the North East.

I think Ukraine are likely to try and keep up the momentum, if they can keep moving at even a fraction of this rate, it won’t take much to break Russian morale in other areas.

The obvious is to maintain the momentum in the NE and swing round to the northern border of Lugansk. I wonder how the approach of an avenging UA would affect the LPR Government and militias.

However, playing clever, they may watch whether the Russians shift the troops moved to reinforce Kherson back East, and then counter punch in the south to keep them off balance and renew the threat to Crimea.

Edited 11 September, 2022 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I wonder where the best tactical place to advance next could be. A punch down towards Mariupol, from west of Donetsk could cut off the link between South and East. Perhaps they’ll just look to consolidate with modest gains in the NE and around Kherson and try to freeze the Russians out in a couple of months.

There’s a lot of speculation towards Mariupol, some from Russia that there’s a build up of Ukrainian troops towards that direction. It’d be a massive tactical, strategic, and symbolic gain to liberate it.

I can’t imagine that it’d be as quick as Kharkiv Oblast, Mariupol is likely still better defended. Ukraine have specialised in being unpredictable, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up making some noise to make Russia react in some way, and then manage to exploit a weakness that gets exposed by that.

[Lighthouse]

2 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

The obvious is to maintain the momentum in the NE and swing round to the northern border of Lugansk. I wonder how the approach of an avenging UA would affect the LPR Government and militias.

They’ll all flee to Russia. A bunch of power grabbing opportunists, no way they’re going to stand and face justice on any sense of principle. The so-called leader of the so-called DPR has already been videoed heading somewhere in a Jeep whilst telling his soldiers to stand and fight.

[Lighthouse]

1 minute ago, Jimmy_D said:

There’s a lot of speculation towards Mariupol, some from Russia that there’s a build up of Ukrainian troops towards that direction. It’d be a massive tactical, strategic, and symbolic gain to liberate it.

I can’t imagine that it’d be as quick as Kharkiv Oblast, Mariupol is likely still better defended. Ukraine have specialised in being unpredictable, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up making some noise to make Russia react in some way, and then manage to exploit a weakness that gets exposed by that.

They don’t need to control the city itself,  just the roads in and out. If they do that then ALL Russia supplies west of Mariupol would have to route through Kerch, and they’re already desperately stretched. If they can do this, through what is mainly just farmland and rural villages, it makes their job in the south that much easier. It also gives them a chance to surround the Zaporizhzhya NPP and hope for a surrender without the need for a firefight.

[Jimmy_D]

5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

They don’t need to control the city itself,  just the roads in and out. If they do that then ALL Russia supplies west of Mariupol would have to route through Kerch, and they’re already desperately stretched. If they can do this, through what is mainly just farmland and rural villages, it makes their job in the south that much easier. It also gives them a chance to surround the Zaporizhzhya NPP and hope for a surrender without the need for a firefight.

Indeed, any sort of fire control that further isolates Kherson and Zaporzhzhya would be extremely helpful. It may also be that events in Kharkiv and Russia’s reaction to them have already left Russia weak in Mariupol and Ukraine are already reacting to that. In any case, whatever Ukraine hit next will be on the back of excellent intelligence and extremely likely to succeed.

The speed of decision making that Ukraine have demonstrated has cut Russian command out of the fight in Kharkiv. That generally takes hours because Russia has no NCO corp and all the decision making is centralised. By the time they were feeding any decision back down it was already too late.

[badgerx16]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

.

The speed of decision making that Ukraine have demonstrated has cut Russian command out of the fight in Kharkiv. That generally takes hours because Russia has no NCO corp and all the decision making is centralised. By the time they were feeding any decision back down it was already too late.

Could it be that all those senior officers that were getting tagged earlier in the conflict have not been effectively replaced ?

[farawaysaint]

The biggest risk that I playing armchair general see at the moment is Ukraine advancing too far and too fast stretching their logistical lines. Russia in theory can consolidate and defend in depth rather than being so overstretched.

There are worse problems to have as the Ukrainian military though I guess.

[badgerx16]

UA have reached the border at Kudiivka, north of Kharkiv.

[Jimmy_D]

23 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Could it be that all those senior officers that were getting tagged earlier in the conflict have not been effectively replaced ?

Well, yes and no. Russia’s decision making has been severely hampered by losing a huge portion of their command structure, and there’s no way to replace that experience, but losing them in the first place was more a symptom of Russia simply not using NCOs.

A combination of not using NCOs and poor lines of communication meant that they had to move officers towards the front lines to speed up decisions. There they were in range of Ukraine being able to target them.

[kyle04]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

The speed of decision making that Ukraine have demonstrated has cut Russian command out of the fight in Kharkiv. That generally takes hours because Russia has no NCO corp and all the decision making is centralised. By the time they were feeding any decision back down it was already too late.

A few commentators have mentioned this. Ukraine have adopted NATO command structure which allows a certain amount of improvisation on the ground without having to ask Kyiv and wait for the OK.

Izium is under AFU control, even the area north of Kharkiv itself is falling to Ukraine. As Jimmy said Russia have all but abandoned Kharkiv oblast, in rather a hurry.

I'll think they'll let Kherson stew for a while, Russia have moved a lot of forces to the northern front there, no need to risk heavy casualties as Russia are going nowhere there. I'm guessing Melitopol/Tokmak might be the next targets, although if the Russian collapse expands into Luhansk region they may well just push on there.

I'm sure like most following this war, looking at the maps a week ago at places like Izium, thinking AFU surely can't take it back without a bloodbath...

[AlexLaw76]

Reports coming out that Russia have ended Special Operations, and are now at “War” 

god knows if that is true, and if so, what that means (if anything)

lots of reports that as we speak, Parts of Ukraine’s national infrastructure is being hit and Russia are telling their nationals to get out of Ukraine ASAP. Again, no idea if that is just bollox 

Edited 11 September, 2022 by AlexLaw76

[badgerx16]

19 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Reports coming out that Russia have ended Special Operations, and are now at “War” 

god knows if that is true, and if so, what that means (if anything)

lots of reports that as we speak, Parts of Ukraine’s national infrastructure is being hit and Russia are telling their nationals to get out of Ukraine ASAP. Again, no idea if that is just bollox 

Are any of these 'reports' on non pro-Russian social media channels ?

There are a lot of Putin lovers creaming themselves because Russia has launched rockets at power stations - and seem to have blacked out Belgorod as a consequence.

Edited 11 September, 2022 by badgerx16