Russia

[badgerx16]

1 minute ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Bit dodgy that her old man suddenly decided on a whim to take a different car home....

I wonder when he last had the car serviced.

[Colinjb]

30 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

I wonder when he last had the car serviced.

Probably a mistake to take it to the dealership in Lviv.

[Jimmy_D]

It’s possible this was Ukraine spec ops, but there are a few factors that don’t add up for that. The risk to any SOF in Moscow would be extreme, for arguably negligible benefit, and it gives Putin another way to ‘justify’ to the Russian people invading Ukraine. Not to mention it doesn’t fit with Ukraine’s actions so far. All of Ukraine’s sanctioned military action has been by the book, and they know that’s part of the reason they’re being backed by NATO so heavily. The risk-reward isn’t anywhere near adding up.

Ukraine sympathising Russians? Maybe, especially if someone got it into their head that this could end the war, but it’d be surprising if some random person evaded Russian security measures that must have been as tight as possible even before this.

Russian false flag? More possible, but Russia are already throwing more or less everything they can short of nukes with (apparent) wide popular support with the propaganda already in place. This won’t tip the balance on escalation, but I guess it’s possible it’s the start of a campaign to try to start to erode the rock-solid support Ukraine currently has.

Another possibility is that the wheels of power in Russia are starting to see the writing on the wall for Putin, and this is about who’ll be the next one in power. When Putin goes, one way or the other, it’ll leave an unbelievable power vacuum, and if he’s started to lose his grip on power, that vacuum may already be starting to have an effect.

[Jonnyboy]

Interesting to see civilians are fair game now, I wonder what the the usual suspects in here reaction would be if Iraq assassinating Euan Blair for example? 

[Jimmy_D]

19 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Interesting to see civilians are fair game now, I wonder what the the usual suspects in here reaction would be if Iraq assassinating Euan Blair for example? 

No, they’re still not.

Only an utter ****wit would even begin to try and use this to justify the utterly reprehensible evil that Russia has been responsible for.

[Jonnyboy]

7 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

No, they’re still not.

Only an utter ****wit would even begin to try and use this to justify the utterly reprehensible evil that Russia has been responsible for.

Maybe you should put some ice on your war boner then Mr CIA.

[Jimmy_D]

3 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Maybe you should put some ice on your war boner then Mr CIA.

I’ve read this several times and I’m just genuinely curious what point you were trying to make now.

[whelk]

4 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Maybe you should put some ice on your war boner then Mr CIA.

Don’t over do it Jonny. Can’t resist a Blair post though eh

[whelk]

1 minute ago, Jimmy_D said:

I’ve read this several times and I’m just genuinely curious what point you were trying to make now.

Basically he is anti establishment sixth form student who swallows any contrary opinion. Don’t think he can be deprogrammed.

[badgerx16]

36 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Interesting to see civilians are fair game now, I wonder what the the usual suspects in here reaction would be if Iraq assassinating Euan Blair for example? 

1) How many more Ukrainian civiians will have to die before it even registers in your brain cell ?

2) There has not been one iota of evidence that this is anything other than an internal Ruasian matter; possibly a power struggle between Putin's enabers and those who fancy taking over after he is deposed, or maybe somebody disillusioned by the SMO and hitting back at it's instigator.

[Jimmy_D]

Russian partisans apparently claiming responsibility for the car bomb

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/ex-russian-mp-claims-russian-partisans-responsible-for-moscow-car-bomb

[Lighthouse]

I’m still sticking with the spark plugs theory.

[Colinjb]

7 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

Russian partisans apparently claiming responsibility for the car bomb

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/ex-russian-mp-claims-russian-partisans-responsible-for-moscow-car-bomb

Wonder if that could almost be a Trojan Horse, sniff out the discontented.

[aintforever]

23 hours ago, Jonnyboy said:

Interesting to see civilians are fair game now, I wonder what the the usual suspects in here reaction would be if Iraq assassinating Euan Blair for example? 

I would be very surprised if Ukraine had anything to do with this. Their whole war effort relies heavily on the support of the West so why take the risk with this sort of terrorist act? Doesn’t make sense or fit with how they have acted so far.

[Baird of the land]

20 hours ago, aintforever said:

I would be very surprised if Ukraine had anything to do with this. Their whole war effort relies heavily on the support of the West so why take the risk with this sort of terrorist act? Doesn’t make sense or fit with how they have acted so far.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ukraine had something to do with it. It would fit in with the much more aggressive approach they are now pursuing. The west hasn't shown much interest in setting boundaries.

 

[kyle04]

More speculation here, although not exactly a smoking gun :

Ukraine: Horror as Dugin 'suffers heart attack' after Putin's 'revenge bomb' on ally (msn.com)

IMO, in order of probability :

1) Russian false flag to bolster public opinion, and as an excuse to escalate the conflict, although it seems pretty escalated already

2) Little heard of Russian anti-Putin group "NRA", not much to go on except posts from exiled politician

3) Ukrainian SpecOps, very unlikely, even if Dugin himself was killed it would represent a very low value target, Ukriaine would trade that for a large military strike I'm sure. Zalensky category denies any involvement, Russia are blaming Ukraine so it can't , by default, be them.

4) Those Russian cigarettes again, when will they learn...

[badgerx16]

6 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

More speculation here, although not exactly a smoking gun :

Ukraine: Horror as Dugin 'suffers heart attack' after Putin's 'revenge bomb' on ally (msn.com)

IMO, in order of probability :

1) Russian false flag to bolster public opinion, and as an excuse to escalate the conflict, although it seems pretty escalated already

2) Little heard of Russian anti-Putin group "NRA", not much to go on except posts from exiled politician

3) Ukrainian SpecOps, very unlikely, even if Dugin himself was killed it would represent a very low value target, Ukriaine would trade that for a large military strike I'm sure. Zalensky category denies any involvement, Russia are blaming Ukraine so it can't , by default, be them.

4) Those Russian cigarettes again, when will they learn...

The FSB, who usually take months to decide they cannot solve a case, suddenly do so in less than 2 days - including 'finding' conclusive CCTV video. I think that is a bit too convenient.

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Baird of the land said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ukraine had something to do with it. It would fit in with the much more aggressive approach they are now pursuing. The west hasn't shown much interest in setting boundaries.

 

Assasinations of this sort are extremely high risk. Why would Ukraine send an operative with the potential for ( her apparently ) to be thwarted and captured ? Their alleged activities in Crimea are far more effective and productive.

[Weston Super Saint]

31 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

More speculation here, although not exactly a smoking gun :

Ukraine: Horror as Dugin 'suffers heart attack' after Putin's 'revenge bomb' on ally (msn.com)

IMO, in order of probability :

1) Russian false flag to bolster public opinion, and as an excuse to escalate the conflict, although it seems pretty escalated already

2) Little heard of Russian anti-Putin group "NRA", not much to go on except posts from exiled politician

3) Ukrainian SpecOps, very unlikely, even if Dugin himself was killed it would represent a very low value target, Ukriaine would trade that for a large military strike I'm sure. Zalensky category denies any involvement, Russia are blaming Ukraine so it can't , by default, be them.

4) Those Russian cigarettes again, when will they learn...

5) spark plug fault

[Baird of the land]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

Assasinations of this sort are extremely high risk. Why would Ukraine send an operative with the potential for ( her apparently ) to be thwarted and captured ? Their alleged activities in Crimea are far more effective and productive.

For Ukraine there is easy deniability given the current climate & high reward of striking someone in the heart of Russia. Personal risk for an operative sure but that's part & parcel of the job.

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Baird of the land said:

For Ukraine there is easy deniability given the current climate & high reward of striking someone in the heart of Russia. Personal risk for an operative sure but that's part & parcel of the job.

The FSB couldn't solve the Daily Star crossword in 2 days, let alone a murder investigation.

Edited 23 August, 2022 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

5 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

5) spark plug fault

On a diesel?

(No, I don’t know either)

[skintsaint]

Russians will lap up the Ukrainian conspiracy killing theory.

[Weston Super Saint]

5 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

On a diesel?

(No, I don’t know either)

As plausibe as a ship / ammunition dump spontaneously erupting.

[egg]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

As plausibe as a ship / ammunition dump spontaneously erupting.

I'm waiting for the explosion as a result of a defective spark plug in a diesel powered toaster in an officer's mess. Anything is possible it seems. 

[Whitey Grandad]

I think it was more likely to have been a faulty ejector seat.

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, egg said:

I'm waiting for the explosion as a result of a defective spark plug in a diesel powered toaster in an officer's mess. Anything is possible it seems. 

I think all the officers have deserted / been killed and the toaster has been stolen.

Edited 24 August, 2022 by Weston Super Saint

[farawaysaint]

It’s an interesting one. I could see why Ukraine might want to assassinate Dugin rather than his daughter.

I imagine the Ukrainian intelligence  operating method is not far removed from the Soviet past so very much on brand although no way they would be able to do that without the highest authorisation and I can’t imagine Zelensky would go for it.

Russia performing a false flag against one of Putin’s strongest supporters also doesn’t make a lot of sense.

The only explanation which seems plausible right now is Russian domestic terrorism as some Russian politicians have suggested.

Edited 24 August, 2022 by farawaysaint

[badgerx16]

Russia have apparently withdrawn S300 SAM systems from Syria and are redeploying them to occupied Ukrainian territory to replace units destroyed there.

[skintsaint]

12 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Russia have apparently withdrawn S300 SAM systems from Syria and are redeploying them to occupied Ukrainian territory to replace units destroyed there.

Will replace the balloons then.

 

[kyle04]

Who need HIMARS?

 

[skintsaint]

Another sparkplug...in the boot.

[skintsaint]

Apparently Ukraine have started the offensive to take back Kherson.

[Jimmy_D]

2 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Apparently Ukraine have started the offensive to take back Kherson.

Seems so. OPSEC means any details beyond ‘this is happening’ are thin.

Ukraine have been keeping their tanks back from the front lines, between captured tanks and military aid donated, they’ve got more armour now than they started with.

If they’re using them to support an infantry advance, unlike Russia that have been constantly misusing them as a spearhead, they’re likely to see much more success.

If we hear anything more than rumours that tanks have been committed, that’ll likely be the first concrete indication that this is a serious move by Ukraine.

[skintsaint]

Alleged pic from the counter-offensive.

 

[kyle04]

Seems they're going for it :

 

This is huge.

[Weston Super Saint]

4 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Alleged pic from the counter-offensive.

 

Nah.  That can't be right, there aren't any tractors....

[skintsaint]

Videos of small arms fire on Kherson's streets, reckon more Partisan action than the UA reaching the city.

[badgerx16]

24 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Videos of small arms fire on Kherson's streets, reckon more Partisan action than the UA reaching the city.

If so. I hope it is more the liberation of Paris than the Warsaw uprising.

[badgerx16]

Ukraine saying that claims by Russia over destroyed HIMARS launchers are actually Kalibr cruise missiles hitting wooden decoys.

[buctootim]

12 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Ukraine saying that claims by Russia over destroyed HIMARS launchers are actually Kalibr cruise missiles hitting wooden decoys.

Story in the Washington Post. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/30/ukraine-russia-himars-decoy-artillery/

 

Back in July ton national TV the Russians claimed the pic below was a photo of a destroyed HIMARS. 

 

It turned out to be this. 

Edited 30 August, 2022 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

Ukraine learning from history ?

 

http://www.americainwwii.com/articles/pattons-ghost-army/

[kyle04]

Here come the cavalry :

I'm not sure how the Russians are going to get this stuff over the Dnipro river though, the bridges are all shot, Ukraine hit their barge ferry earlier today as well. Could end up a turkey shoot.

The decoy HIMARS are well worth the effort, the Russian Kalibr missile costs $6.5 million...

[skintsaint]

Russia can keep up supplying new equipment (or old depending how you look at it). Its harder to replace trained dead drivers/tankers etc.

[badgerx16]

47 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Russia can keep up supplying new equipment (or old depending how you look at it). Its harder to replace trained dead drivers/tankers etc.

The thing with Russian tanks is the pool of potential tankers is diminished as there is a height limit on who fits inside.

[skintsaint]

7 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

The thing with Russian tanks is the pool of potential tankers is diminished as there is a height limit on who fits inside.

From the videos I've seen of drones dropping grenades there are a lot of shorter Russians these days due to having no legs. 

[Lighthouse]

Not the ‘dead Russian leader’ news I wanted this morning.

[whelk]

As you do

 

[cloggy saint]

2 hours ago, whelk said:

As you do

 

Nothing more than (another) tragic accident. People fall out of hospital windows all the time.

[Jimmy_D]

So, while the USSR was a member of the UN, Ukraine has requested the records for when Russia started being part of the UN.

Looks like Russia never joined, and there’s no legal mechanism that allowed them to take on the USSR’s membership. Apparently no one else has ever thought to ask.

Of course in an organisation like the UN the exact letter of the law takes a back seat to diplomacy, and Russia aren’t completely without allies in the UN, but given their current status in the eyes of the World, it’s certainly an interesting question to ask.