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whelk

By whelk,
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Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales  

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  1. 1. Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales

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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 09/06/2022 at 23:15, farawaysaint said:

Риа новости are great, they appeared to have a rather spirited discussion today about whether a public hanging or quartering would be more appropriate.

They've turned into a parody of themselves. It's almost become anti propaganda - so comicly extreme it just makes the regime look deranged 

Edited by buctootim
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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted

Western nations are investigating various potential outcomes for the war and how they might be reached - exactly what they should be doing. There is no guarantee that Russia will even manage to overrun the Donbas region, there is no realistic chance that Ukraine will reclaim it's pre-2014 borders, so regardless of Putin's bluster and Zelensky's brave words is it not reasonable that these 'frameworks' are played through, if only to gauge the West's appetite for a prolonged proxy war.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

Western nations are investigating various potential outcomes for the war and how they might be reached - exactly what they should be doing. There is no guarantee that Russia will even manage to overrun the Donbas region, there is no realistic chance that Ukraine will reclaim it's pre-2014 borders, so regardless of Putin's bluster and Zelensky's brave words is it not reasonable that these 'frameworks' are played through, if only to gauge the West's appetite for a prolonged proxy war.

It's also over a week out of date at this point.

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

It's also over a week out of date at this point.

A week during which the Russians have expended a lot of artillery shells for minimal gain, and hundreds of people have died. The battle in the East has turned into highly attritional slugfest where, potentially, the outcome will be decided by either Ukraine running out of ammunition or the Russians running out of viable units.

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kyle04

kyle04

Posted
Posted

The Russians are starting to make progress these past few days in the east, in what looks like quite an ambitious large encirclement strategy. Both sides reportedly taking heavy losses, who knows how many though, even the Ukraine MOD website has stopped reporting Russian losses for nearly a week now whereas before it was a daily summary (the figures were always optimistic though). Ukraine are using the western artillery to good effect, the French Ceasar system seems particularly good along with the M777's and the like. Problem is they do not have nearly enough of it. To put it perspective Russia have over 3000 guns to call on, and a seemingly endless supply of shells.

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aintforever

aintforever

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

 

Whatever happens there is going to have to be some sort of negotiated agreement in the end, it's just a case of putting Ukraine in the strongest position possible.

We just have to hope the Western governments are as committed to the cause as they say they are.

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
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1 hour ago, aintforever said:

Whatever happens there is going to have to be some sort of negotiated agreement in the end, it's just a case of putting Ukraine in the strongest position possible.

We just have to hope the Western governments are as committed to the cause as they say they are.

More likely it’ll just be a long, drawn out stalemate. A negotiated settlement basically just means Ukraine signs a piece of paper which says everything Russia has done is fine and gives them a breather for a few years to regroup for their next assault. I don’t see what they stand to gain from that.

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Baird of the land

Baird of the land

Posted
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2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

More likely it’ll just be a long, drawn out stalemate. A negotiated settlement basically just means Ukraine signs a piece of paper which says everything Russia has done is fine and gives them a breather for a few years to regroup for their next assault. I don’t see what they stand to gain from that.

Not sure i see that Russia wanting to come back for more given the losses they've suffered. Seems to me likely they are more focusing on rushing to get minimum acceptable goal domestically and then just holding it.

 

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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, aintforever said:

Whatever happens there is going to have to be some sort of negotiated agreement in the end, it's just a case of putting Ukraine in the strongest position possible.

We just have to hope the Western governments are as committed to the cause as they say they are.

Exactly.  Both sides will say then won/the other lost.  Both will claim the lives of 10s of 1000s of the other.  But ultimately Russia will have taken vast swathes of the country, despite the UK and the US (+ a few others) ploughing in sums of money/support that would arm an advanced Western nation for a year or so.

Note I say the US and the UK as the leaders of the EU have embarrassed themselves over this.

The rhetoric now from the West rarely claims Russia will / must lose in Ukraine.

Edited by AlexLaw76
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Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Exactly.  Both sides will say then won/the other lost.  Both will claim the lives of 10s of 1000s of the other.  But ultimately Russia will have taken vast swathes of the country, despite the UK and the US (+ a few others) ploughing in sums of money/support that would arm an advanced Western nation for a year or so.

Note I say the US and the UK as the leaders of the EU have embarrassed themselves over this.

The rhetoric now from the West rarely claims Russia will / must lose in Ukraine.

"Vast swathes" ... et I don't think so. Have you seen a map of Ukraine?

Why do you downplay the cost to Russia of their invasion? Cost economically, militarily, diplomatically and the cost to their reputation world wide. 

I would suggest that the cost to Russia of the small amount that they have gained dwarfs the cost to the western world of defending Ukraine.

 

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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

"Vast swathes" ... et I don't think so. Have you seen a map of Ukraine?

Why do you downplay the cost to Russia of their invasion? Cost economically, militarily, diplomatically and the cost to their reputation world wide. 

I would suggest that the cost to Russia of the small amount that they have gained dwarfs the cost to the western world of defending Ukraine.

 

Vast swathes?  I wonder how many times the UK would fit into the land controlled / will be controlled by Russia?

Serious Q.

I am not downplaying anything, just realistic.  

 

Edited by AlexLaw76
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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Vast swathes?  I wonder how many times the UK would fit into the land controlled / will be controlled by Russia?

Serious Q.

I am not downplaying anything, just realistic.  

 

Ukraine is listed as being just under 604 thousand square km, Russia occupies approx 20% - so say 120 thousand square km. The UK is 243 thousand square km, so Russia occupies an area about half the size of the UK.

 

HTH

Edited by badgerx16
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aintforever

aintforever

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

More likely it’ll just be a long, drawn out stalemate. A negotiated settlement basically just means Ukraine signs a piece of paper which says everything Russia has done is fine and gives them a breather for a few years to regroup for their next assault. I don’t see what they stand to gain from that.

There will probably be a long drawn out stalemate then a settlement. Given that Russia already controlled much of the area they currently occupy before this invasion and the West didn’t give a monkeys I doubt they will be willing to keep ploughing billions into it so they get it all back now. If Ukraine build up a it of momentum and start pushing Russia back then maybe, but I can’t see that happening.

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kyle04

kyle04

Posted
Posted

There will come a point, if we're not there already, when both sides are scraping the barrel to achieve even the smallest objectives. There's numerous claims that Russia is running low on missles/tanks, and that Ukraine has expended most of it's Soviet era hardware etc etc. What is not in doubt is that Russia's military manufacturing capability is currently crippled, so it's expending current stocks, though vast, are not infinite. Similarly Ukraine is now almost totally reliant on western aid. Ukraine can only achieve it's objectives through continued western support. Whilst most European countries have given what they can (apart from Germany), it all hinges on the US. If the US and others go all in, it's over for Russia, if not, then a long protracted stalemate.

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Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

Ukraine is listed as being just under 604 thousand square km, Russia occupies approx 20% - so say 120 thousand square km. The UK is 243 thousand square km, so Russia occupies an area about half the size of the UK.

 

HTH

Thanks.

The trouble is that our friend Alex will not admit that he is wrong. He will now just skulk away and come back in a few days time quoting some obscure Twitter poster that apparently shows that the Russians are invincible.

Some people never learn from their mistakes and misunderstandings.

 

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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Tamesaint said:

Thanks.

The trouble is that our friend Alex will not admit that he is wrong. He will now just skulk away and come back in a few days time quoting some obscure Twitter poster that apparently shows that the Russians are invincible.

Some people never learn from their mistakes and misunderstandings.

 

How am I wrong? I have said from the off the Russia will be defeated. So far, that is right

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Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How am I wrong? I have said from the off the Russia will be defeated. So far, that is right

Because despite what you said,the land controlled by Russia is only half the size of the UK - not "many times".

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How am I wrong? I have said from the off the Russia will be defeated. So far, that is right

Right - o :mcinnes:

On 21/02/2022 at 20:06, AlexLaw76 said:

And if that is relatively unopposed, then he can turn to his greater desire - full-on regime change in Kiev 

 

On 21/02/2022 at 20:17, AlexLaw76 said:

Once these new (pro Russian) areas are 'recognised', they will of course require significant assistance to secure their borders. Just by chance, Russia have a massive armed force very near by that can move in to help 

 

On 24/02/2022 at 12:06, AlexLaw76 said:

exactly.  Fancy a war with Russia?  They are not some tin-pot desert rat nation.  They bite back and have significant means to do so.

 

On 24/02/2022 at 12:15, AlexLaw76 said:

Self defence is only going to happen if there is a will to do so.  What will is there?

US - general population probably could not careless about eastern Europe (or Europe in general).  The nation is led by someone who barely knows what day it is.

UK - We all know the issues here.  Both left and right scrambling for the green agenda, pronouns, kneeling, statues, no will to secure our own borders, demanding the PM (who ever it is) is removed within months of taking over and armed forces gleefully decimated over the last 25 years

France - Incredible history of not fronting up to NATO responsibilities

Germany - Pacifist at best and sold their soul to Russia in many ways.

Canada - Look at the state of that country (and who leads it)

That is about it.  The rest are two-bob powers

 

I would predict that the appetite for war, let alone a protracted one, after Afghanistan etc is absolutely minimal. Like we could afford it after COVID.  Talking of Afghanistan, notice no one cares anymore?  Kids are probably still getting their heads cut off, but cake is a bigger story.

 

 

On 24/02/2022 at 12:21, AlexLaw76 said:

it is a deterrent if anything.  If Khalid crashes a plane in down-town warsaw, then 'retribution' will take place.

If Russia (backed by China?) squares up to Lithuania, the will for ~30-odd nations to pile-in.....remains to be seen.

 

On 24/02/2022 at 15:58, AlexLaw76 said:

 

But Russia make most of their own capability.  They do not go for the most technological sophisticated jets/ships/tanks

With their 'only a couple more then we do', they have something like 10x the amount of fighter jets than us.  Their land forces are extremely formidable, a force that can easily out-gun ours (that was a reason for the reduction in our artillery capability as it would be over in minutes against that lot), and their Navy is pretty big.

They have developed some insane weapons that would bring havoc to any enemy.

Their activities below the threshold of war are well practiced.  They are it all the time.

 

On 24/02/2022 at 16:02, AlexLaw76 said:

Tell you one thing, regardless of us spending being a bit more/bit less on Defence, we could not muster 150k ground forces at the speed they did (we now have half that).

We'd be lucky to muster 15k

 

On 26/02/2022 at 11:58, AlexLaw76 said:

 

 

Cannot see any of your posts claiming Russia will be defeated.

Vlad's number 1 cheerleader on the other hand....

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mickn

mickn

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Right - o :mcinnes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cannot see any of your posts claiming Russia will be defeated.

Vlad's number 1 cheerleader on the other hand....

Bet he  loved last weekend, a chance to get his red, white and blue bunting out under the guise of celebrating the Queen's platinum celebrations.

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Jonnyboy

Jonnyboy

Posted
Posted
On 11/06/2022 at 22:00, badgerx16 said:

Western nations are investigating various potential outcomes for the war and how they might be reached - exactly what they should be doing. There is no guarantee that Russia will even manage to overrun the Donbas region, there is no realistic chance that Ukraine will reclaim it's pre-2014 borders, so regardless of Putin's bluster and Zelensky's brave words is it not reasonable that these 'frameworks' are played through, if only to gauge the West's appetite for a prolonged proxy war.

Stop shilling for Putin. Ukraine must fight on! 

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted

Didn't someone mention that sanctions aren't working and Russia is rolling in cash?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61796067

Quote

Russia's economy in numbers*

 

  • 17.1%Annual inflation in May

  • 8-9%Retail trade set to fall this year

  • 83.5%Car sales fall in May 2022

  • 7.8%Official forecast of fall in Russian GDP in 2022

  • 30%Unofficial forecast of GDP collapse by IIF

*Official sources: Akort; economy ministry; AEB; Rosstat

 

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kyle04

kyle04

Posted
Posted

The Ukrainian troops are taking an artillery pounding, all day every day, yet still they are resisting and in many instances counter attacking in some areas. Russia are expending 50-60 thousand shells per day according to some estimates, yet their progress remains painfully slow on all fronts, both sides taking heavy casualties. Russia still does not control all of Serverodonetsk, although the bridges behind the Ukrainian forces there have been destroyed making a retreat very difficult across the river.

The good news is that more heavy weapons are on their way from the west, Macron making positive noises as well since his recent visit, so in time the tide may turn in Ukraine's favour, but at the moment no-one is "winning".

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