Russia

[Killers Knee]

• Poroshenko has been detained at the Ukrainian/Polish border, attempting to flee political persecution and charges that could result in the death penalty. 
• Rumours of Ukrainian Officers being arrested in Kiev, were suspected of plotting a coup d'etat against Zelensky. 
• Rebellion in the ranks of the Ukrainians located in the east is getting worse with more and more units refusing to fight at the front. 
• T-62s are being used to secure road-blocks deep behind the contact line in the liberated east. 
• Captured mercenaries, including Brits have been processed by the DPR courts and now face the death penalty. 
• Severodonetsk cauldron is looking bleak for Ukraine with over 15,000 troops caught in it, one road out, albeit under Russian Fire control, they are being delivered "last chance shells" with instructions on how to safely surrender.
• Interesting tactical changes this week:  the first large-scale attacks from the Russian Airforce of the war happened in Lugansk, and the TOS-2 "Tosochka" has been deployed for the first time.  

[Jimmy_D]

Rhetoric that Ukraine should cede territory isn’t anything new or different. Russian shills have been peddling that line from the start.

Russia and Ukraine have different short-medium term aims at the moment.

Ukraine are fighting a war of attrition aiming to make the cost for Russia so high that they can’t fight any more.

Russia are fighting to gain territory as quickly as possible, throwing everything they have left at holding the East of Ukraine, despite the immense unsustainable losses that they’re incurring doing so.

This is likely because Russia know they’re on a clock. The presence of T62s and expanding their recruitment requirements shows that a combination of Ukraine’s tactics and sanctions are preventing Russia being able to maintain their current level of military capability, and it’s becoming more and more degraded.

Meanwhile Ukraine have been training over a million soldiers that were drafted when Russia invaded, are receiving more and more NATO equipment, and are training on more advanced NATO equipment than they’re currently using.

It’s getting to the point that Russia will be starting to compromise the conventional defence of Russian territory.

Russia’s best option at this point is to capture the Eastern regions, unilaterally declare a victory of some sort, hold a sham referendum, and threaten nuclear retaliation if ‘their’ territory is ‘invaded’. It’s still not a good option because they’ve overused the threat of nuclear weapons, and the cost will be immense, but preventing this is likely the reason Ukraine are defending Severodonetsk so resolutely.

[Weston Super Saint]

19 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

 

This is likely because Russia know they’re on a clock. The presence of T62s and expanding their recruitment requirements shows that a combination of Ukraine’s tactics and sanctions are preventing Russia being able to maintain their current level of military capability, and it’s becoming more and more degraded.

 

Are you sure?  Alexei reckons that sanctions are making the good ole Ruskies richer than they've ever been!

[Jimmy_D]

15 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Are you sure?  Alexei reckons that sanctions are making the good ole Ruskies richer than they've ever been!

The economic impact on Russia has been significant, even if the paper value of the rouble is inflated at the moment.

Regardless of that though, it doesn’t matter how rich Russia is, one of the main impacts of the sanctions is to make it impossible for Russia to source materials and components required to maintain their military capability, for example, microchips for precision munitions.

[Killers Knee]

7 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Are you sure?  Alexei reckons that sanctions are making the good ole Ruskies richer than they've ever been!

Putin is presiding over the largest budget surplus in Russian history.  But don't let facts get in the way.

[Jimmy_D]

5 minutes ago, Killers Knee said:

Putin is presiding over the largest budget surplus in Russian history.  But don't let facts get in the way.

That doesn’t quite mean what you seem to think it means.

https://www.ft.com/content/22bd612b-c5d9-4f8f-98b8-5f5b69a1da37

[Killers Knee]

12 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

That doesn’t quite mean what you seem to think it means.

https://www.ft.com/content/22bd612b-c5d9-4f8f-98b8-5f5b69a1da37

As your article states: "The rouble’s strength not only belies a struggling domestic economy, which is expected to slump into a severe recession this year, but it puts pressure on government finances by lowering the local currency value of dollar-denominated oil and gas revenues, they argue."

We have to wait and see to verify if the first statement is true, but as for the second statement that builds their argument, is Russia dealing, Oil for Dollars?  Gas for Dollars?  will it be dealing Grain for Dollars this Autumn?  All Russian commodity trade is denominated in Roubles, ask your friendly Greek oil tanker Captain.

[Jimmy_D]

32 minutes ago, Killers Knee said:

As your article states: "The rouble’s strength not only belies a struggling domestic economy, which is expected to slump into a severe recession this year, but it puts pressure on government finances by lowering the local currency value of dollar-denominated oil and gas revenues, they argue."

We have to wait and see to verify if the first statement is true, but as for the second statement that builds their argument, is Russia dealing, Oil for Dollars?  Gas for Dollars?  will it be dealing Grain for Dollars this Autumn?  All Russian commodity trade is denominated in Roubles, ask your friendly Greek oil tanker Captain.

Like I said, it's not how rich Russia is that's hurting their war effort at the moment. There's a massive budget surplus because things that Russia need aren't being supplied to them, and there's nowhere else for Russia to buy. Huge swathes of Russia's economy have just... stopped. Even more swathes are running on reserves that aren't being replenished.

Oil and gas are important, and the paper value of the rouble reflects that, but the range of services and products those roubles can be used for has been severely restricted, and is narrowing all the time, especially as further sanctions are being imposed. This isn't a situation that is improving for Russia.

[badgerx16]

Biden says the US will not send Ukraine rockets that can reach Russia. I suppose it depends on how close to the border you are standing when you fire them.

[buctootim]

48 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Biden says the US will not send Ukraine rockets that can reach Russia. I suppose it depends on how close to the border you are standing when you fire them.

Also depends whether you think Crimea is Russian

[buctootim]

The blog I follow is claiming that Russia paid the Taliban $3 billion to not invade a disputed area of Tajikistan. Takjikistan is part of the CSTO - the Russian NATO and Russia couldnt or didnt want to commit forces to repel them. The Taliban, sensing weakness, have uppped their demand to $5bn. If Putin gives in its a very slippery slope. If he doesnt he risks two wars at once.... 

[Johnny Bognor]

 

 

She's at it again

[buctootim]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Bognor said:

She's at it again

Ive come to the conclusion that programme is deliberately aimed to make the West fearful that Russia is mad enough to use nukes 'so dont push us'. Russia 'diplomacy' has always been based on lies and threats  

[Lighthouse]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

The blog I follow is claiming that Russia paid the Taliban $3 billion to not invade a disputed area of Tajikistan. Takjikistan is part of the CSTO - the Russian NATO and Russia couldnt or didnt want to commit forces to repel them. The Taliban, sensing weakness, have uppped their demand to $5bn. If Putin gives in its a very slippery slope. If he doesnt he risks two wars at once.... 

We should get the CIA to go and train them on guerrilla warfare and sell them some arms. I can’t see it backfiring in any way in the future.

[whelk]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

The blog I follow is claiming that Russia paid the Taliban $3 billion to not invade a disputed area of Tajikistan. Takjikistan is part of the CSTO - the Russian NATO and Russia couldnt or didnt want to commit forces to repel them. The Taliban, sensing weakness, have uppped their demand to $5bn. If Putin gives in its a very slippery slope. If he doesnt he risks two wars at once.... 

Says everything that I’d be routing for #TeamTaliban

[buctootim]

This is today's offering for those interested - Putin plans restore a former Ukrainian President to the rule of the Russian occupied territories and declare him the legitimate head of the whole of Ukraine. Then merge Belarus, Ukraine and Russia into one country and relaunch the Soviet Union. Obviously no idea if true or not but it is consistent with the Red Flags being carried by Russian troops and the disdain Putin has for the current Russian flag

        

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! The other day, Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin the concept of a political structure for the occupied territories of Ukraine. The concept, although crude, is so ridiculous that it aroused the keen interest of the half-dead president. The essence of Kiriyenko's proposals is as follows: to declare the occupied territories liberated from the "junta", to restore the power of the "legally elected president" Viktor Yanukovych in these territories, to consider these territories as Ukraine with "legitimate" power, refusing to recognize real power in Ukraine and then hold a meeting of the three " presidents" of Russia, Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus with the signing of a union agreement on unification into one state, in fact, joining Russia, a kind of Belovezhskaya Pushcha on the contrary. Thus, to correct the "historical mistake" of the collapse of the USSR, which Putin himself considers the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. After the restoration of "historical justice", or rather a truncated version of the USSR, it is proposed, on new grounds, to continue the annexation of the rest of Ukraine, which Russia will already consider its part. Moreover, according to the preliminary plan, "Ukraine", or rather, what Russia annexes to itself will receive Crimea in the form of autonomy and Donbass within its administrative borders. The idea is absolutely absurd and unfeasible, but so much so that it is called “entered” by Putin, that he gave the order to prepare this plan in detail and submit it within two weeks.

 

 

[kyle04]

9 minutes ago, buctootim said:

This is today's offering for those interested - Putin plans restore a former Ukrainian President to the rule of the Russian occupied territories and declare him the legitimate head of the whole of Ukraine. Then merge Belarus, Ukraine and Russia into one country and relaunch the Soviet Union. Obviously no idea if true or not but it is consistent with the Red Flags being carried by Russian troops and the disdain Putin has for the current Russian flag

        

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! The other day, Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin the concept of a political structure for the occupied territories of Ukraine. The concept, although crude, is so ridiculous that it aroused the keen interest of the half-dead president. The essence of Kiriyenko's proposals is as follows: to declare the occupied territories liberated from the "junta", to restore the power of the "legally elected president" Viktor Yanukovych in these territories, to consider these territories as Ukraine with "legitimate" power, refusing to recognize real power in Ukraine and then hold a meeting of the three " presidents" of Russia, Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus with the signing of a union agreement on unification into one state, in fact, joining Russia, a kind of Belovezhskaya Pushcha on the contrary. Thus, to correct the "historical mistake" of the collapse of the USSR, which Putin himself considers the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. After the restoration of "historical justice", or rather a truncated version of the USSR, it is proposed, on new grounds, to continue the annexation of the rest of Ukraine, which Russia will already consider its part. Moreover, according to the preliminary plan, "Ukraine", or rather, what Russia annexes to itself will receive Crimea in the form of autonomy and Donbass within its administrative borders. The idea is absolutely absurd and unfeasible, but so much so that it is called “entered” by Putin, that he gave the order to prepare this plan in detail and submit it within two weeks.

 

 

They really are barking mad. In over 3 months Russia have taken just 2 cities (currently virtually destroyed), and lost 1/3 of it's military capability in the process. They're running out of tanks, missiles and combat ready men. I'm sure many thought that Zalensky was scare mongering at the start of this war when he alluded to Russia's expansionist goals not stopping with Ukraine, now it seems not. Putin just can't get over the fall of the USSR can he? He's beginning to resemble Hitler in the last days of the Reich, making grand plans on his map with armies that no longer exist. If the west maintain it's support Russia cannot win.

It would be handy if the Taliban made a move on Tajikistan, doubt it though.

[buctootim]

47 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

They really are barking mad. In over 3 months Russia have taken just 2 cities (currently virtually destroyed), and lost 1/3 of it's military capability in the process. They're running out of tanks, missiles and combat ready men. I'm sure many thought that Zalensky was scare mongering at the start of this war when he alluded to Russia's expansionist goals not stopping with Ukraine, now it seems not. Putin just can't get over the fall of the USSR can he? He's beginning to resemble Hitler in the last days of the Reich, making grand plans on his map with armies that no longer exist. If the west maintain it's support Russia cannot win.

It would be handy if the Taliban made a move on Tajikistan, doubt it though.

I guess the plan is to simply present a fait accompli in the East and South with the hope that the voices for a ceasefire will lead to a fracturing of the will to continue. It's certainly possible  

[whelk]

Comical Russia complaining about escalating. You started it you twats. 

[Picard]

Looks like arms to Ukraine aren't being used as intended.

 

[skintsaint]

37 minutes ago, Picard said:

Looks like arms to Ukraine aren't being used as intended.

 

That doesn't have that fresh out the box look. Probably taken from a dead Ukrainian.

[Whitey Grandad]

8 hours ago, skintsaint said:

That doesn't have that fresh out the box look. Probably taken from a dead Ukrainian.

Could even be a unit captured by the Russians.

Does the advert say “Only used once”?

[kyle04]

Macron's been at it again :

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-putin-ukraine-invasion-mistake/

The response from Ukraine :

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives.

Meanwhile Russia continue to make no headway on the battlefield.

[buctootim]

On 03/06/2022 at 01:24, Picard said:

Looks like arms to Ukraine aren't being used as intended.

 

See if you can find one which isnt an empty tube, having already been fired and complte with the essential launch unit .  

[buctootim]

1 hour ago, kyle04 said:

Macron's been at it again :

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-putin-ukraine-invasion-mistake/

The response from Ukraine :

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives.

Meanwhile Russia continue to make no headway on the battlefield.

Have seen several commentators and analysts saying this war has precipated the end of the Franco-German axis in the EU and  the beginning of a Central and Eastern European one. Basically France and Germany want to pick up business with Russia again as soon as possible whilst Eastern Europe wants to keep Russia suppressed so it cant do this again to another country.    

[kyle04]

57 minutes ago, buctootim said:

See if you can find one which isnt an empty tube, having already been fired and complte with the essential launch unit .  

...."requires light restoration, easy project"

57 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Have seen several commentators and analysts saying this war has precipated the end of the Franco-German axis in the EU and  the beginning of a Central and Eastern European one. Basically France and Germany want to pick up business with Russia again as soon as possible whilst Eastern Europe wants to keep Russia suppressed so it cant do this again to another country.    

If anything else, the war has certainly shown the world where each countries priorities lie. I think if Russia had conducted their "operation" in a less brutal and indiscriminate manner, and had perhaps made noises at the UN regarding the Donbas situation they wouldn't be in the mess they are now. Their MO hasn't altered, just bomb the crap out of any town/village within reach then sustain heavy casualties trying to move in. The regions they claim to want to "liberate" are largely rubble. Because of this and the generally accepted injustice of the invasion it's Ukraine that have been left with no choices, other than to fight on. I've seen may comments on Youtube videos from Germans, who generally feel ashamed at their country's lack of decisive action in supplying heavy weapons. Macron sees himself as a modern day Kissinger, but he's just an appeaser to a modern day Hitler.

[Yozzman]

There might be some light at the end of the tunnel for Ukraine. 

 

[whelk]

You don’t fight well with a sore arse

 

[Matthew Le God]

3 hours ago, whelk said:

You don’t fight well with a sore arse

Are you speaking from personal experience?

[whelk]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

Are you speaking from personal experience?

I am never without my mobile bidet so soggy toilet roll never was a thing

[whelk]

Something for Batman to consider

 

[farawaysaint]

13 hours ago, whelk said:

Something for Batman to consider

 

Not really a stick to beat Russia with, Ukrainians are doing the same.

[buctootim]

12 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Not really a stick to beat Russia with, Ukrainians are doing the same.

True. I even remember a crowd funding event to buy better boots for British soldiers 

[whelk]

13 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Not really a stick to beat Russia with, Ukrainians are doing the same.

I wasn’t suggesting that. More that some outlet for the Putin fanboy

[buctootim]

 

Medevedev brought in as temporary fall guy for falling ratings. Putins daughter brought in next in and Putin remains in control although notionally stepping back...

 

 

[skintsaint]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-general-killed-eastern-ukraine-russian-state-media-reporter-says-2022-06-05/

another one.

[buctootim]

47 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-general-killed-eastern-ukraine-russian-state-media-reporter-says-2022-06-05/

another one.

I saw a picture of his body online. Safe to say he didnt die peacefully in his sleep

[skintsaint]

4 minutes ago, buctootim said:

I saw a picture of his body online. Safe to say he didnt die peacefully in his sleep

the one with the plastic sheet? Wasn't pretty.

[buctootim]

9 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

the one with the plastic sheet? Wasn't pretty.

That's the one. I wonder if he still thinks the great noble venture was worth it  

[whelk]

Contrast the two leaders courage. Zelensky visiting the frontline in the Donbas whilst the bald midget sits at the end of a long table worried about getting infected. 

[skintsaint]

 

[Baird of the land]

Did wonder if it was wise for Ukraine to be trying Russian soldiers when Russia has a bunch of prisoners of its own to stage trials of. Wonder how many more of them will be sentenced to death.

[Lighthouse]

2 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

Did wonder if it was wise for Ukraine to be trying Russian soldiers when Russia has a bunch of prisoners of its own to stage trials of. Wonder how many more of them will be sentenced to death.

The ‘wisdom’ of Ukraine doesn’t come into it. Russia will continue to recruit mercenaries from wherever they can find them, whilst simultaneously murdering any they capture fighting for Ukraine.

Part of me is wondering if we should call Russia’s bluff on the grain exports and send in a coalition of NATO ships to protect it. You’d think they’d back down on that, rather than engaging and seeing their Black Sea fleet wiped out.

[kyle04]

The UK were "thinking" about ways of lifting the blockade a while ago. Turkey control the Bosphoros straights and dictate what enters the Black Sea. Meanwhile Lavrov is blaming UKraine for the grain crisis because they've mined the area around Odesa (he forgot to mention the reason they did this was to defend against an amphibious assault on the city, and the fact Russia have stolen large quantities of grain via Sevastapol). If this isn't resolved soon many people around the world will face starvation, the quantities of grain involved can only be moved by sea. The solution is simple, Russia move all their warships out of the Black Sea, they can still launch cruise missiles from the Caspian.

[Baird of the land]

2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

The ‘wisdom’ of Ukraine doesn’t come into it. Russia will continue to recruit mercenaries from wherever they can find them, whilst simultaneously murdering any they capture fighting for Ukraine.

Don't see why wisdom doesn't come into it. If Russian prisoners are put on trial and sentenced to life imprisonment it hardly gives Russia any pause in regards finding reasons to conduct show trials on prisoners it has. Maybe Russia does it anyway but yeah they were most definitely going to do it after.

 

[whelk]

If they execute them we should just get MI5 to execute a couple of oligarchs and one of their family members 

[aintforever]

Was bound to happen, as soon as those guys were caught they were dead men walking. Not sure executing POWs is going to help Russia in any way though, just going to make the enemy less likely to surrender.

[AlexLaw76]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britains-armed-forces-weak-protect-27192294

[badgerx16]

18 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britains-armed-forces-weak-protect-27192294

He's not wrong.

[Lighthouse]

4 hours ago, whelk said:

If they execute them we should just get MI5 to execute a couple of oligarchs and one of their family members 

Why bother. They’re all accidentally falling down the stairs whilst carrying and axe and licking a toad, those poor careless chaps keep accidentally dying in accidents. Whoops.