egg Posted 12 May, 2022 Posted 12 May, 2022 26 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said: A lengthy thread, and I know nothing of the author so can't verify thd validity of her claims, but it's consistent with many other reports. Things are going from bad to worse for Russia. Whatever the true objective was, there's no way they can achieve it now. Cheers, an interesting read.
moonraker Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 16 hours ago, badgerx16 said: They fought on Germany's side in WW2. Only because Russia invaded them.
buctootim Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 (edited) Russian tactics Edited 13 May, 2022 by buctootim
badgerx16 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 59 minutes ago, moonraker said: Only because Russia invaded them. The Winter War, during which Russia invaded, was in 1939/40. During the peace that followed Finland searched for allies to help it re-arm and bolster it's defences. Sweden didn't want to help, Britain at the time couldn't, so Finland finally turned to Germany as Operation Barbarossa loomed and Finland saw a chance to take back territory in Karelia that it had lost the previous year. The Germans supplied weapons and aircraft, and positioned troops in northern Finland to attack Russia. This is something the Russians still hold against them.
skintsaint Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 13 hours ago, whelk said: Twats are getting battered Apparently they had another go.....
Weston Super Saint Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 49 minutes ago, skintsaint said: Apparently they had another go..... If they keep trying, eventually they'll be able to walk across the debris 1 1
Jimmy_D Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 6 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said: If they keep trying, eventually they'll be able to walk across the debris Sounds like that might actually be their strategy at this point. A third attempt has gone about as well as the first two, according to the Luhansk governor. Ukraine war latest: Russians failed three times in bloody river battle, says Ukraine - BBC News
AlexLaw76 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 A few reports going around that Russia will be turning off the Gas supplied to Finland over the next day or so. Lets see
Weston Super Saint Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said: A few reports going around that Russia will be turning off the Gas supplied to Finland over the next day or so. Lets see Are they the reports that a Russian spokesman said were fake news?
Jimmy_D Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News Ukraine's head of military intelligence claiming that information has leaked or been obtained that Putin is seriously ill and the process of replacing him is already in progress. Rumours have been floating around for a while of course, and it wouldn't be surprising, but it's interesting that it's actually Ukrainian intelligence claiming this now.
Lighthouse Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said: Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News Ukraine's head of military intelligence claiming that information has leaked or been obtained that Putin is seriously ill and the process of replacing him is already in progress. Rumours have been floating around for a while of course, and it wouldn't be surprising, but it's interesting that it's actually Ukrainian intelligence claiming this now. The speculation in the gutter press today is that he has blood cancer. It’ll be interesting to see what does happen if and when he pegs it, who takes over and if there’s some sort of power struggle.
Jimmy_D Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 Just now, Lighthouse said: The speculation in the gutter press today is that he has blood cancer. It’ll be interesting to see what does happen if and when he pegs it, who takes over and if there’s some sort of power struggle. Putin's been acting as if he'll be in power forever since he got into power. I guess that might have changed if he has been ill, but it's still going to be one hell of a power vacuum that's left if he does go.
Jonnyboy Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/05/what-might-a-ukraine-peace-agreement-look-like/
kyle04 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 Watch out for Patrushev, head of security council and ex FSB in the mould of Putin. Was reportedly to be put in temporary charge when Putin was to have surgery recently. If Putin goes to hell some time soon I don't think the Russian compaign would continue for very long. a military coup wouldn't surprise me either given how many shit sandwiches their top brass have had to consume in recent weeks.
Jimmy_D Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 11 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said: https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/05/what-might-a-ukraine-peace-agreement-look-like/ There are a lot of people trying to tell Ukraine what they should do. It's up to Zelensky and the Ukrainians.
Lighthouse Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 1 minute ago, kyle04 said: Watch out for Patrushev, head of security council and ex FSB in the mould of Putin. Was reportedly to be put in temporary charge when Putin was to have surgery recently. If Putin goes to hell some time soon I don't think the Russian compaign would continue for very long. a military coup wouldn't surprise me either given how many shit sandwiches their top brass have had to consume in recent weeks. Part of their problem is it’s blame game roulette, with everyone in the Kremlin chucking sh*te at each other like chimps in a zoo. Nobody wants to take the blame, intelligence blame the military, the military blame politicians, politicians blame intelligence and vice versa. When the music stops, so to speak, things could get messy; the (probably literal) backstabbing will be relentless. 1
Jimmy_D Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 Just now, Lighthouse said: Part of their problem is it’s blame game roulette, with everyone in the Kremlin chucking sh*te at each other like chimps in a zoo. Nobody wants to take the blame, intelligence blame the military, the military blame politicians, politicians blame intelligence and vice versa. When the music stops, so to speak, things could get messy; the (probably literal) backstabbing will be relentless. Everyone will be buying bungalows and avoiding upper floor windows.
Jonnyboy Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 On 12/05/2022 at 16:45, cloggy saint said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025 Sickening, these cunts need to pay for this in kind. "The Iraq Body Count project (IBC) documented a higher number of civilian deaths up to the end of the major combat phase (May 1, 2003). In a 2005 report, using updated information, the IBC reported that 7,299 civilians are documented to have been killed, primarily by U.S. air and ground forces."
Jonnyboy Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said: There are a lot of people trying to tell Ukraine what they should do. It's up to Zelensky and the Ukrainians. Has he asked the Ukranians? Other than outlawing all the other political parties that is.
kyle04 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonnyboy said: Has he asked the Ukranians? Other than outlawing all the other political parties that is. I think most Ukrainians are busy with other matters at the moment.
Jimmy_D Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonnyboy said: Has he asked the Ukranians? Other than outlawing all the other political parties that is. Someone has. • Support of Volodymyr Zelensky's during war in Ukraine 2022 | Statista 70% believe in Ukraine’s victory, 91% support Zelensky, (kyivindependent.com) How President Zelensky’s approval ratings have surged - New Statesman Funnily enough, performing miracles to drum up international support and hold off a brutal Russian attack on his country has somewhat improved his approval ratings. 1
kyle04 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said: Someone has. • Support of Volodymyr Zelensky's during war in Ukraine 2022 | Statista 70% believe in Ukraine’s victory, 91% support Zelensky, (kyivindependent.com) How President Zelensky’s approval ratings have surged - New Statesman Funnily enough, performing miracles to drum up international support and hold off a brutal Russian attack on his country has somewhat improved his approval ratings. The first survey was conducted just a couple of days after the invasion (91% support), small pool though only 2000, don't know if that's normal with these polls. I think Zalensky could not have done more for his country. Faced with the mighty Russian army about to storm into Kyiv at one point he could have just fucked off, De Gaulle style, but he stayed. Given his background that took balls and mirrored the fierce patriotism Ukrainians have, particularly where Russia/USSR is concerned. Macron has recently pissed on the "Ukraine to join EU" fire, saying with a country like Ukraine it could take years, ie, fuck off. The French don't change do they. Recalling De Gaulle, after the liberation of France he said to the US general Patton, I would like all of your troops out of my country ASAP. To which Patton famously replied, "does that include all those lying in your cemetaries?"
badgerx16 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said: "The Iraq Body Count project (IBC) documented a higher number of civilian deaths up to the end of the major combat phase (May 1, 2003). In a 2005 report, using updated information, the IBC reported that 7,299 civilians are documented to have been killed, primarily by U.S. air and ground forces." What a good little Putin shill you are - whataboutery as a deflection tactic at it's finest. How many of those were deliberately targetted ? How many women and girls were raped ? How many civilians forcibly deported to 'filtration' camps ? In your opinion is the Russian invasion justified ? ( That is YOUR opinion, not a link to some deluded anti-western keyboard warrior's verbal diarrhea ). Edited 13 May, 2022 by badgerx16
badgerx16 Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said: Has he asked the Ukranians? Other than outlawing all the other political parties that is. 11 small pro-Russian parties which were seen as collaborators. The largest of them had 44 seats out of the 450 seat Parliament, 9 of them had none at all. Pretty similar action to Britain banning the British Union of Fascists in WW2. Good try, though.I think you can do better. Edited 13 May, 2022 by badgerx16
cloggy saint Posted 13 May, 2022 Posted 13 May, 2022 1 hour ago, Jonnyboy said: "The Iraq Body Count project (IBC) documented a higher number of civilian deaths up to the end of the major combat phase (May 1, 2003). In a 2005 report, using updated information, the IBC reported that 7,299 civilians are documented to have been killed, primarily by U.S. air and ground forces." How about you shove your whataboutery up your arse? 1 1
AlexLaw76 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 I see more strong words and tough talk today, from our side. More sanctions inbound. We all feel good about it as we tell ourselves it is working. the real world, Russia is inching their control over massive swathes of the southern and Eastern parts of the country. Which France is talking up surrendering parts of Ukraine on behalf of Ukrainians. Got to love France, eh! 1
Lighthouse Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: I see more strong words and tough talk today, from our side. More sanctions inbound. We all feel good about it as we tell ourselves it is working. the real world, Russia is inching their control over massive swathes of the southern and Eastern parts of the country. Which France is talking up surrendering parts of Ukraine on behalf of Ukrainians. Got to love France, eh! Luckily we haven't been arming Ukraine with British weapons, otherwise it'd all have been over in the first weekend. 1
badgerx16 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 18 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: The real world, Russia is inching their control over massive swathes of the southern and Eastern parts of the country. How is the Russian control of Kyiv, a day 3 target, or Kharkiv, a day 5 target, going ? How many weeks in and they still do not have complete control of the Donbas, despite starting the war occupying nearly 50%, and they haven't moved an inch beyond Kherson in a month. When is the invasion of Odessa taking place ?
egg Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 1 minute ago, badgerx16 said: How is the Russian control of Kyiv, a day 3 target, or Kharkiv, a day 5 target, going ? How many weeks in and they still do not have complete control of the Donbas, despite starting the war occupying nearly 50%, and they haven't moved an inch beyond Kherson in a month. When is the invasion of Odessa taking place ? Odessa won't be long imo. They want complete control of that western Ukraine coastline to landlock the remnants of Ukraine. Although they haven't taken as much of the country that the west assume they anticipated taking by now, don't underestimate how much of the massive Ukraine they have taken. Even if they retreat to the ore invasion borders, they've caused all sorts of destruction to the country and its people.
AlexLaw76 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 21 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: Luckily we haven't been arming Ukraine with British weapons, otherwise it'd all have been over in the first weekend. The destruction of massive parts of Ukraine continues. Despite the tough talk, sanctions and the 10's of billions £££ being pumped into the war already.
egg Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 An overlooked point. The country has been fucked by Russia. If they seize Odessa, that coast and keep what they have seized they essen landlock Ukraine and it's economy is obliterated. The west are highlighting where Russia has failed, but it's had success and ain't finished yet.
badgerx16 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 2 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: The destruction of massive parts of Ukraine continues. Despite the tough talk, sanctions and the 10's of billions £££ being pumped into the war already. It is a war being fought on Ukrainian soil. Unless NATO deploys "boots on the ground" what else do we do ? The Russians have had their noses severely bloodied, their army's morale is plummeting, along with their stock of serviceable tanks, and there can be no doubt that the Special Military Operation is vastly off plan, well beyond it's intended timetable, and way off it's intended outcome.
badgerx16 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 2 minutes ago, egg said: An overlooked point. The country has been fucked by Russia. If they seize Odessa, that coast and keep what they have seized they essen landlock Ukraine and it's economy is obliterated. The west are highlighting where Russia has failed, but it's had success and ain't finished yet. A land locked Ukraine is a disaster for Global food supplies.
OldNick Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 1 minute ago, egg said: An overlooked point. The country has been fucked by Russia. If they seize Odessa, that coast and keep what they have seized they essen landlock Ukraine and it's economy is obliterated. The west are highlighting where Russia has failed, but it's had success and ain't finished yet. Without a doubt it will be a total disaster if Russia take Odessa, then they will join the border with Moldova, where there are a separatist group there. Im sure that it will not be long before NATO will act. Not good news. The respect I had of the power of the Russian army has evaporated. Just hope that there can be some way of Putin to be stopped.
buctootim Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 (edited) 13 hours ago, kyle04 said: Watch out for Patrushev, head of security council and ex FSB in the mould of Putin. Was reportedly to be put in temporary charge when Putin was to have surgery recently. If Putin goes to hell some time soon I don't think the Russian compaign would continue for very long. a military coup wouldn't surprise me either given how many shit sandwiches their top brass have had to consume in recent weeks. There is an anonymous Russian blog I follow. I have no idea whethere it is completely made up BS or informed inside knowledge - but the way it is written, controlled and plausible makes me think there is knowledge behind it. Supposedly Patruschev is advocating for his son to be Putin's long term replacement. He has support in security circles but not amongst the military. Putin has leukaemia (my doc partner reckons chronic lymphocytic) which doesnt kill you quickly but is very debilitating. The main point though is that his illness is leading to peoples mind moving on from Putin and what happens after. He is known in the Kremlin as the living corpse, in charge, but everyone knows, for a limited period. Edited 14 May, 2022 by buctootim 1
egg Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 3 minutes ago, badgerx16 said: A land locked Ukraine is a disaster for Global food supplies. Yep, and the Ukraine economy. It'll be a disaster. Hopefully it won't happen, but a Mariupol type siege on Odessa will see it fall I'd imagine.
egg Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 8 minutes ago, badgerx16 said: It is a war being fought on Ukrainian soil. Unless NATO deploys "boots on the ground" what else do we do ? The Russians have had their noses severely bloodied, their army's morale is plummeting, along with their stock of serviceable tanks, and there can be no doubt that the Special Military Operation is vastly off plan, well beyond it's intended timetable, and way off it's intended outcome. I agree with that. I was initially all for "doing more" which was an emotional reaction. In truth, all we could possibly do that we we're not is supply more weapons, training, and find a way to live without any russian oil or gas immediately.
buctootim Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 8 minutes ago, egg said: An overlooked point. The country has been fucked by Russia. If they seize Odessa, that coast and keep what they have seized they essen landlock Ukraine and it's economy is obliterated. The west are highlighting where Russia has failed, but it's had success and ain't finished yet. Disagree. Russia has pretty much reached their highpoint. They cant sustain or replace their current losses. Its not just in soldiers killed and injured and war materiel lost but the fact that without war being declared Russian soldiers can just refuse to go to Ukraine (ie serve outside Russia) or resign when their contracts are up - and most contracts are only three years. Interesting reports that LNR militia who have been driven north away from Kharkiv are not being allowed to cross the Russian border. I reckon there is a decent chance the whole enterprise could completely collapse pretty quickly. The other scnerio is a long fight over Donbass only. Cant see any situation where the whole south is involved for a protracted period of time.
egg Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 Just now, buctootim said: Disagree. Russia has pretty much reached their highpoint. They cant sustain or replace their current losses. Its not just in soldiers killed and injured and war materiel lost but the fact that without war being declared Russian soldiers can just refuse to go to Ukraine (ie serve outside Russia) or resign when their contracts are up - and most contracts are only three years. Interesting reports that LNR militia who have been driven north away from Kharkiv are not being allowed to cross the Russian border. I reckon there is a decent chance the whole enterprise could completely collapse pretty quickly. The other scnerio is a long fight over Donbass only. Cant see any situation where the whole south is involved for a protracted period of time. Let's see how it plays out, but the south coast is very vulnerable imo, and a bot of a sitting duck given the russian naval resources. The donbas is much easier to defend.
badgerx16 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 As the Russian army retreats from Kharkiv the conscripted cannon fodder of their allied Luhansk People's Republic are being prevented from withdrawing with them across the border into Mother Russia.
farawaysaint Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 1 hour ago, egg said: Yep, and the Ukraine economy. It'll be a disaster. Hopefully it won't happen, but a Mariupol type siege on Odessa will see it fall I'd imagine. Counterpoint, Mariupol was encircled early and Ukraine have been fortifying Odessa for weeks. Good luck taking it.
AlexLaw76 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 6 minutes ago, farawaysaint said: Counterpoint, Mariupol was encircled early and Ukraine have been fortifying Odessa for weeks. Good luck taking it. Or just cut it off from the the rest of country.
kyle04 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 I don't think that Russia have the necessary forces to take Odesa, as well as striving to control the Donbas, even if their army performed properly, which it clearly isn't and unlikely to in the near future, they have less than 100 BTG's in the country now and that number is diminishing rapidly. They haven't made any progress at all around Kherson. Their navy in the Black Sea has been shown to be vulnerable to missile attacks, although still capable of imparting some serious damage. They continue to lose men and equipment on a daily basis, and much of the Western supplied material has yet to be put into service. The re-taking of Kharkiv by UA is important as it frees up a lot of forces to fight in other areas. The observation that the LPR troops were abandoned by Russia in the north is an indication of how this could play out should Russia implement a "Special Tactical Withdrawal" from the country, not too good for their morale, although given that Russian troops are happy to leave their own dead and wounded on the battlefield it's not surprising.
Lighthouse Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 12 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: Or just cut it off from the the rest of country. Yep, just like that. Sit there for months on open farmland in their crappy tanks, with little or no access to basic amenities, accommodation or tactical cover.
whelk Posted 14 May, 2022 Author Posted 14 May, 2022 (edited) Batman might want to go a little further than GM TV for his analysis. Wrong on every thread about every topic. Incredible consistency I cannot be arsed to go back to start of this thread but sure to be zero correct predictions as remember him being in awe of Putin Edited 14 May, 2022 by whelk
AlexLaw76 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 18 minutes ago, whelk said: Batman might want to go a little further than GM TV for his analysis. Wrong on every thread about every topic. Incredible consistency I cannot be arsed to go back to start of this thread but sure to be zero correct predictions as remember him being in awe of Putin The war is going to stop any day now, right? and City don't need a striker......
Jimmy_D Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 Russia have gained very little in the South since the start of the invasion, and have paid a huge price for those small gains. All tanks originally allocated to the invasion are now reported as destroyed. They’re digging into mothballed equipment from as far back as the 60s, and some are now armed with only bolt action rifles. Morale is close to the point of breaking. With Russia breaking around Kharkiv, that’ll free up some of the Ukrainian forces there and will give them options. Ukraine now has artillery, including the M777, that vastly outranges Russia’s, is vastly more accurate, and has better counter-battery systems attached to them. A combination of Ukraine’s Javelins, the UK’s Brimstones, and now even an Israeli Blue Spear system, have made the Black Sea increasingly hostile for Russian ships. I think the reason there’s been so much activity around Snake Rock the last few days is that Russia were on a clock before that arrived to get a foothold for an amphibious assault on Odessa. That’s likely passed now, Odessa is extremely unlikely to fall.
badgerx16 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 I like the way that the German PanzerHaubitzes can fire 5 shells at a target such that they will all hit at the same time.
kyle04 Posted 14 May, 2022 Posted 14 May, 2022 10 minutes ago, badgerx16 said: I like the way that the German PanzerHaubitzes can fire 5 shells at a target such that they will all hit at the same time. Overkill against a T72, they do the job for you almost.
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