Russia

[egg]

10 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

So we take Ukrainian airforce pilots away from the war, and ship them to the US to do conversion training on F-16s/F-18s ? They have been brought up on Russian aircraft, mostly models that are at least 15 years old, so in order to supply them we need to probably find a way that is acceptable to Poland for them to ship in their Mig-29s - offensive weapons being sent directly to a wartime enemy of their most powerful and threatening neighbour.

Who's suggested supplying F16/F18? Poland offered Migs. The US appeared to be on board, then backtracked, then threw Poland under the bus. Presumably having shit themselves over Russian red lines re planes. 

Edited 9 March, 2022 by egg

[Weston Super Saint]

1 minute ago, egg said:

You've missed the point I was replying to namely that determining that supplying Ukraine with plans is a red line set arbitrarily by Russia. Its no different than supplying any other machine or weapon to take out Russian machines or men. 

I probably quoted the wrong post.  The point about NATO not doing more in this (and many, many other wars / conflicts) is still valid.

As Badger / Lighthouse point out, the obvious issue is around the ability of the Ukrainian pilots to fly the planes.

Pretty sure it was the topgear episode when they went from Crimea to Chernobyl where they found an enormous 'Mig' graveyard.  Might be more useful to supply them with aircraft engineers and get those bad boys up and running again....

[egg]

4 minutes ago, Plastic said:

I’d say watch this space. The US may have rejected the offer, but it’s conceivable that the Polish may circumvent the process and do this themselves, giving Putin grounds to retaliate. That would become an interesting predicament, and could escalate quickly into something very unpleasant. 

Poland needed US support on this. Rather than give that, the US didn't just say no, they've publicly said what Poland wanted and hung them out to dry. Sure, the US didn't have to agree, but the public message is a tacit apology to Russia. 

[Plastic]

4 minutes ago, egg said:

Poland needed US support on this. Rather than give that, the US didn't just say no, they've publicly said what Poland wanted and hung them out to dry. Sure, the US didn't have to agree, but the public message is a tacit apology to Russia. 

Like I say, things can change quickly. A few incidents of the slighted Poles flying too close to / over the border, a couple of Russian SAMs, and we have a precedent for a global conflict. 

Edited 9 March, 2022 by Plastic

[Weston Super Saint]

6 minutes ago, egg said:

Poland needed US support on this. Rather than give that, the US didn't just say no, they've publicly said what Poland wanted and hung them out to dry. Sure, the US didn't have to agree, but the public message is a tacit apology to Russia. 

There may be a wider issue though as the Polish planes are currently in Poland, so how do you get them into Ukraine?  Either a Polish fighter pilot flies them into a disputed warzone - which could very easily be spun by Russia to claim that a NATO country is carrying out an act of aggression against their invasion thus leading to an escalation that NATO don't want to enter into - or Ukrainian fighter pilots pick them up in Poland and fly them into Ukraine - with a similar result from Russia claiming they were 'launched' from a NATO country.

I think the original suggestion was that the US would supply planes to Poland and it was up to them to get them to Ukraine.  Poland then announced that they would give the Migs to the US and they could then get them to Ukraine - this is the suggestion that the US took umbrage with.

Different with weapons moving across the border as presumably they would be in crates / packaging and therefore much harder to interpret as an act of aggression rather than a transaction between countries.

Edited 9 March, 2022 by Weston Super Saint

[egg]

1 minute ago, Weston Super Saint said:

There may be a wider issue though as the Polish planes are currently in Poland, so how do you get them into Ukraine?  Either a Polish fighter pilot flies them into a disputed warzone - which could very easily be spun by Russia to claim that a NATO country is carrying out an act of aggression against their invasion thus leading to an escalation that NATO don't want to enter into - or Ukrainian fighter pilots pick them up in Poland and fly them into Ukraine - with a similar result from Russia claiming they were 'launched' from a NATO country.

Different with weapons moving across the border as presumably they would be in crates / packaging and therefore much harder to interpret as an act of aggression rather than a transaction between countries.

There's no distinction between items leaving one Nato country in a plane and arriving in Ukraine, or a plane leaving a Nato country and arriving in Ukraine. Any argument to the contrary is bollox. 

One of our senior forces guys (or ex, I can't recall) said something about Ukraine pilots crossing the border and collecting them. Seems like a solution. 

At the end of the day though, Putin has said don't supply planes, we've shit ourselves and said "don't blame us, it was the Poles idea". Pathetic. 

[Lighthouse]

15 minutes ago, egg said:

The last point goes to my initial point today, namely that the West are running scared of Putin. We haven't been to war with a nuclear power before, and we don't want to. Putin knows that and my concern is that our unwillingness to engage militarily in Ukraine because of the nuclear threat may be interpreted by Putin that we won't engage if an article 5 issue arises in a Nato country. I know we should, but the more he is allowed to get away with, the more emboldened he becomes imo.

The west is NOT running scared of Putin. We have a strategy, we're playing as calmly as we can and are not being drawn in to escalation. We hold all the cards, Putin's options are limited.

• Stick it out in Ukraine. He will probably occupy most of the country eventually but it'll be costly in terms of lives and money. It's going to be very rough domestically.
• Escalate and attack NATO; he'll get an arse whooping in a conventional war.
• Try to push the big red button; the military will step in and say enough is enough.
• Try to compromise or retreat; he's terrified of appearing weak more than anything else.

[Weston Super Saint]

2 minutes ago, egg said:

There's no distinction between items leaving one Nato country in a plane and arriving in Ukraine, or a plane leaving a Nato country and arriving in Ukraine. Any argument to the contrary is bollox. 

One of our senior forces guys (or ex, I can't recall) said something about Ukraine pilots crossing the border and collecting them. Seems like a solution. 

At the end of the day though, Putin has said don't supply planes, we've shit ourselves and said "don't blame us, it was the Poles idea". Pathetic. 

No idea about the credibility of the source, but more info here

[Mystic Force]

I think we should all just stop being pussies and trying to figure out what we can do without setting off grumpy Mr Putin. If I was younger, fitter or more useful I would not think twice about being in this war. I also have a step son on an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean who would obviously be in harms way. Putin is not going to sit on the naughty chair after all this for a while. this basically ends when one side stops being able to act or their leadership is ousted by their countrymen. We should not kid ourselves here. If we believe in liberal democracy we should be willing to defend it. The Ukrainian's are not all paradigms of virtues they have their faults like all countries, but they are a damn site better than the regime Putin runs, and with all wars its is the ordinary people who suffer. Nothing we have done so far will ultimately be enough to stop them, if it does not stop here there will be further conflict down the road or a new cold war, this time the western countries are not as far ahead of the rest of the world and it might not end so well. 

[egg]

1 minute ago, Lighthouse said:

The west is NOT running scared of Putin. We have a strategy, we're playing as calmly as we can and are not being drawn in to escalation. We hold all the cards, Putin's options are limited.

• Stick it out in Ukraine. He will probably occupy most of the country eventually but it'll be costly in terms of lives and money. It's going to be very rough domestically.
• Escalate and attack NATO; he'll get an arse whooping in a conventional war.
• Try to push the big red button; the military will step in and say enough is enough.
• Try to compromise or retreat; he's terrified of appearing weak more than anything else.

1, 2 and 3. 

2 assumes that we'll react if it escalates to a Nato country. We should, and that would be a short lived conventional war that he knows he won't win. That increases the risk to a nuclear war and i'm not convinced we'll risk that, or that you're right that he'll be talked down. Thus, I think he either tests the West or just sticks it out in Ukraine. I'm not sure what this fool will do. 

4. The idiot has backed himself into a corner. There's no compromise here, and I can't see that he'll  retreat for the reason you state. 

[farawaysaint]

I have said it before but I think Russia’s non negotiables are recognition of Crimea and autonomy of Donbas, everything else is up for talks.

Russia would be able to claim victory as they obtained concessions for the Russian speakers being subjected to “genocide”. I can’t see Ukraine giving up their rights to Crimea though but I think they would happily give Donbas more autonomy to end it.

Not a chance Putin can budge on the Crimea issue sadly as given it was annexed in 2014 it would be impossible to spin surrendering it as anything but a loss.

Edited 9 March, 2022 by farawaysaint

[egg]

2 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

I have said it before but I think Russia’s non negotiables are recognition of Crimea and autonomy of Donbas, everything else is up for talks.

Russia would be able to claim victory as they obtained concessions for the Russian speakers being subjected to “genocide”. I can’t see Ukraine giving up their rights to Crimea though but I think they would happily give Donbas more autonomy to end it.

Not a chance Putin can budge on the Crimea issue sadly as given it was annexed in 2014 it would be impossible to spin surrendering it as anything but a loss.

How about Nato or EU membership? If Ukraine concede that. Should Moldova or Finland be expected to do so if Putin insists? 

[farawaysaint]

3 minutes ago, egg said:

How about Nato or EU membership? If Ukraine concede that. Should Moldova or Finland be expected to do so if Putin insists? 

Zelensky has already made noises about being willing to budge on Nato membership.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

Edited 9 March, 2022 by farawaysaint

[egg]

4 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Zelensky has already made noises about being willing to budge on Nato membership.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

He's essentially said that Nato don't want Ukraine as they don't want to protect it from Russia. That's not a willingness, and doesn't give any protection to Ukraine from Russia, protection which they bought when they surrendered their nuclear weapons. Nato should to stand up and admit Ukraine when this nonsense is over - they're no less deserving of a seat at the table than the Baltic states or Poland. 

[aintforever]

6 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Zelensky has already made noises about being willing to budge on Nato membership.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

Ukraine just need to drop the NATO thing and just change their mind a few years later after the country has been rebuilt and flooded with arms from the West.

[Weston Super Saint]

7 minutes ago, egg said:

How about Nato or EU membership? If Ukraine concede that. Should Moldova or Finland be expected to do so if Putin insists? 

If he invades them (very unlikely), then yes, unless they are confident they can defeat him / his forces.  Countries are responsible for their own protection, if some of them take the Warriorsaint point of view that having weapons isn't necessary then they leave themselves open for invasion.

The whole NATO joining argument and maintaining a buffer is just more Putin bollocks anyway.  He didn't want Ukraine to join NATO to keep a 'buffer' between Russia and NATO countries, then he invades Ukraine with the intention of reclaiming it for the motherland and in doing so moving his own country's borders right next door to a NATO country.  The argument is and always has been a sham and an excuse for invasion.

[egg]

Just now, aintforever said:

Ukraine just need to drop the NATO thing and just change their mind a few years later after the country has been rebuilt and flooded with arms from the West.

Putin’s demand is not to drop it, but amend its constitution to agree to never to seek membership. If they're out, they'll always be a sitting duck and the minute they ask to join, Putin will have another crack.

Just tell the little prick that Nato decides who's in their club, not him. 

[egg]

2 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

If he invades them (very unlikely), then yes, unless they are confident they can defeat him / his forces.  Countries are responsible for their own protection, if some of them take the Warriorsaint point of view that having weapons isn't necessary then they leave themselves open for invasion.

The whole NATO joining argument and maintaining a buffer is just more Putin bollocks anyway.  He didn't want Ukraine to join NATO to keep a 'buffer' between Russia and NATO countries, then he invades Ukraine with the intention of reclaiming it for the motherland and in doing so moving his own country's borders right next door to a NATO country.  The argument is and always has been a sham and an excuse for invasion.

To be clear, you're saying that Moldova or Finland should abandon Nato or EU membership if Putin demands it? 

[aintforever]

6 minutes ago, egg said:

Putin’s demand is not to drop it, but amend its constitution to agree to never to seek membership. If they're out, they'll always be a sitting duck and the minute they ask to join, Putin will have another crack.

Just tell the little prick that Nato decides who's in their club, not him. 

NATO won’t be caught with its pants down again, they could easily arm Ukraine enough to deter a similar thing happening in the future.   The Russians appear to be making hard work of this war as it is.

[Weston Super Saint]

6 minutes ago, egg said:

To be clear, you're saying that Moldova or Finland should abandon Nato or EU membership if Putin demands it? 

The EU and NATO are not the same thing!  Moldova isn't in the EU so that is a moot point.  If Russia invaded Finland and demanded it leave the EU, then yes, unless they can defeat the invasion they would have to leave the EU, unless the EU finally puts together the EU army and enters into a defensive pact with its members (which FInland would likely not enter into anyway), then it would not have many choices!

Moldova does not allow foreign forces on its land and has no intentions of joining NATO and isn't a current member, so whether Putin demands it or not is irrelevant.

Finland has declared that it will not align itself with military alliances and does not want to join NATO, so whether Putin demands it or not is irrelevant.

The difference is that whilst Ukraine has a constitution that wishes it to join NATO, it didn't meet the joining criteria.  I'm sure the Skates would love to be in the Premier League, but likewise they don't meet the criteria to do so!

[egg]

3 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

The EU and NATO are not the same thing!  Moldova isn't in the EU so that is a moot point.  If Russia invaded Finland and demanded it leave the EU, then yes, unless they can defeat the invasion they would have to leave the EU, unless the EU finally puts together the EU army and enters into a defensive pact with its members (which FInland would likely not enter into anyway), then it would not have many choices!

Moldova does not allow foreign forces on its land and has no intentions of joining NATO and isn't a current member, so whether Putin demands it or not is irrelevant.

Finland has declared that it will not align itself with military alliances and does not want to join NATO, so whether Putin demands it or not is irrelevant.

The difference is that whilst Ukraine has a constitution that wishes it to join NATO, it didn't meet the joining criteria.  I'm sure the Skates would love to be in the Premier League, but likewise they don't meet the criteria to do so!

That's a lot of waffle mate. I'm none the wiser whether you feel that Putin should be able to dictate who joins other people's clubs. 

[kyle04]

Trouble is, there may not be much left of Ukraine if this drags on beyond the summer, it's cities and ports may be largely destroyed and occupied, and even if that happens there could be years of "insurgent" attacks against the occupying Russians from small remaining enclaves or areas of countryside. It's remaining non-combative population will flee (if they can) leaving a ruined shell of a country. I did notice in Bojo's address to the commons yesterday he reinforced the fact that the UK IS supplying humanitarian aid, sanctions, safe haven etc but did not mention military support, which we have supplied albeit in a small way. Have we run out of stuff to give them already or has his arsehole started to twitch at the thought of upsetting the nasty Putin even more?

[egg]

Just now, kyle04 said:

Trouble is, there may not be much left of Ukraine if this drags on beyond the summer, it's cities and ports may be largely destroyed and occupied, and even if that happens there could be years of "insurgent" attacks against the occupying Russians from small remaining enclaves or areas of countryside. It's remaining non-combative population will flee (if they can) leaving a ruined shell of a country. I did notice in Bojo's address to the commons yesterday he reinforced the fact that the UK IS supplying humanitarian aid, sanctions, safe haven etc but did not mention military support, which we have supplied albeit in a small way. Have we run out of stuff to give them already or has his arsehole started to twitch at the thought of upsetting the nasty Putin even more?

Yep. Ukraine haven't got time for sanctions to bite and for Putin to possibly be ousted. 

On the last part, I think the answer is obvious. Our sanctions have been piss poor in comparison to almost everyone else who's sanctioned, so hardly likely that we'd announce military support if we've supplied it. 

[Whitey Grandad]

19 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Finland has declared that it will not align itself with military alliances and does not want to join NATO, so whether Putin demands it or not is irrelevant.

Sentiment there is changing in the light of these developments. Whatever, the choice of NATO membership must be their’s and not Putin’s.

[whelk]

For those that like a bit of weapon porn these are v effective against the Russians

3 times the speed of sound

 

[kyle04]

e

10 minutes ago, egg said:

Yep. Ukraine haven't got time for sanctions to bite and for Putin to possibly be ousted. 

On the last part, I think the answer is obvious. Our sanctions have been piss poor in comparison to almost everyone else who's sanctioned, so hardly likely that we'd announce military support if we've supplied it. 

Indeed, a cynical person may conclude that Russia has a lot of (undisclosed) influence over our government. Our response so far has been , reluctant, shall way say. The Oligarch sanctions will stall just long enough for them to get their money out of the country, the refugee visa system we have in place is just plain inhumane, just let them in and sort out the paperwork later FFS.

[whelk]

3 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Sentiment there is changing in the light of these developments. Whatever, the choice of NATO membership must be their’s and not Putin’s.

Ireland would be livid If Ukraine joined the EU. They would definitely trump their requirements to be first in line when the infrastructure grants are handed out 

[buctootim]

1 minute ago, whelk said:

Ireland would be livid If Ukraine joined the EU. They would definitely trump their requirements to be first in line when the infrastructure grants are handed out 

Ireland is a nett contributor to the EU. 

[whelk]

Just now, kyle04 said:

e

Indeed, a cynical person may conclude that Russia has a lot of (undisclosed) influence over our government. Our response so far has been , reluctant, shall way say. The Oligarch sanctions will stall just long enough for them to get their money out of the country, the refugee visa system we have in place is just plain inhumane, just let them in and sort out the paperwork later FFS.

Paying for the austerity where legal skills in public sector very limited compared to EU countries. Also noticeable in our inability to spin up a viable visa scheme at short notice. Hats off to the Poles and others going flat out processing and welcoming. Bet most Brits consider UK a vastly superior country to Poland but our ability is laughable at times.

[whelk]

1 minute ago, buctootim said:

Ireland is a nett contributor to the EU. 

Now EU grants have built everything 

[buctootim]

Just now, whelk said:

Now EU grants have built everything 

You know they are wealthier than us right? 

[whelk]

1 minute ago, buctootim said:

You know they are wealthier than us right? 

It was tongue in cheek but did lead me to do some thorough research

[farawaysaint]

1 minute ago, whelk said:

It was tongue in cheek but did lead me to do some thorough research

How are Luxembourg the wealthiest country in Europe net beneficiaries? 🤔

[badgerx16]

4 minutes ago, whelk said:

Paying for the austerity where legal skills in public sector very limited compared to EU countries. Also noticeable in our inability to spin up a viable visa scheme at short notice. Hats off to the Poles and others going flat out processing and welcoming. Bet most Brits consider UK a vastly superior country to Poland but our ability is laughable at times.

The EU had an emergency plan to cope with such a refugee crisis already on the books, they have just tweaked it and set it in motion, hence the granting of 3 year residence at short notice.

[kyle04]

2 minutes ago, whelk said:

Paying for the austerity where legal skills in public sector very limited compared to EU countries. Also noticeable in our inability to spin up a viable visa scheme at short notice. Hats off to the Poles and others going flat out processing and welcoming. Bet most Brits consider UK a vastly superior country to Poland but our ability is laughable at times.

The response from Poland is the polar opposite of the barbarity of Russia. To cope with over a million desperate people flooding in in a matter of days in the organized and humane way they have should be an example to the world. Ordinary Poles are sharing their homes with refugees without hesitation or complaint.

[buctootim]

 

Figures are distorted by people like Apple and Google channelling EU profits through them, but still.  

[buctootim]

6 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

How are Luxembourg the wealthiest country in Europe net beneficiaries? 🤔

Lots of EU staff based there 

European institutions established in Luxembourg

Luxembourg is now home to a large number of European institutions, agencies and bodies, including, in particular:

• the  Secretariat General of the European Parliament;
• theEuropean Commission, with entities from many Directorates-General;
• thePublications Office of the European Union (PO);
• the  Court of Justice of the European Union
• the  European Court of Auditors;
• the  European Investment Bank (EIB) and the  European Investment Fund (EIF);
• the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF);
• the European Stability Mechanism (ESM);
• theTranslation Centre(CDT);
• the Consumers, Health, Agriculture and Food Executive Agency (CHAFEA);
• the Euratom Supply Agency (ESA)
• the EuroHPC.

[egg]

21 minutes ago, buctootim said:

 

Figures are distorted by people like Apple and Google channelling EU profits through them, but still.  

How is Ireland's GDP double ours? Crazy. 

[Manuel]

57 minutes ago, egg said:

How is Ireland's GDP double ours? Crazy. 

Per capita.  Ireland has about 5m people.  

[aintforever]

26 minutes ago, Manuel said:

Per capita.  Ireland has about 5m people.  

That’s the better gauge of wealth though isn’t it?

[Lighthouse]

27 minutes ago, aintforever said:

That’s the better gauge of wealth though isn’t it?

Crudely, but it’s massively skewed by the companies registered there. If Musk were to move Tesla’s HQ to Riga, Latvia would probably jump 10 places without the real world ‘wealth’ of the country changing.

[Weston Super Saint]

10 hours ago, egg said:

That's a lot of waffle mate. I'm none the wiser whether you feel that Putin should be able to dictate who joins other people's clubs. 

You're conflating two seperate issues.  

I agree, Putin does not decide who joins the EU or NATO.

Putin can decide whether he attacks non NATO countries as he knows full well that NATO will not directly engage in defending them.

[Johnny Bognor]

I think the west need to stop referring to sanctions, as sanctions

They should be referred to as a special financial operation designed to help Russians

[Lighthouse]

11 minutes ago, Johnny Bognor said:

I think the west need to stop referring to sanctions, as sanctions

They should be referred to as a special financial operation designed to help Russians

I think we should supply the Russian peacekeepers with ammo. Ammo travelling at 700mph.

[whelk]

Letter in the Times

 

[AlexLaw76]

[ChrisPY]

3 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Shit, the Nazis are back!

[buctootim]

 

Just when you thought the justifications couldn't get any more bizarre.   

 

 

[sadoldgit]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Christ Batman, do you understand that the problem here is Russia not Germany?

[kyle04]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

 

Just when you thought the justifications couldn't get any more bizarre.   

 

 

TBF it's something Trump would probably have dreamt up, Russia seems to be going down the bio/chemical weapon path now, probably because it's armour is getting pasted on a daily basis. Putin's getting a little desperate it seems. Also china is presenting the conflict to its people in a distinctly pro-Russian bias, one abhorent regime quietly backing another, for now.