Russia

[AlexLaw76]

On 05/03/2022 at 17:33, buctootim said:

Omens aren't good are they? We encouraged the Ukrainians to think they could be in the EU and NATO, we encouraged them to dump the Russia led economic equivalents of the EU and NATO, we sold them arms, promised them support, and when they eventually got invaded said "sorry, too risky, on yer own mate"    

As reported this morning that Germany and another will oppose EU entry for Ukraine. 

Probably same for NATO, although not reported as such (yet)

[Lighthouse]

5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

As reported this morning that Germany and another will oppose EU entry for Ukraine. 

Probably same for NATO, although not reported as such (yet)

Neither is going to happen any time soon. I’m sure some Europhiles on here will be able to explain in much more detail than me but there are a whole bunch of social and economic requirements for applying to join the EU, which Ukraine weren’t even close to meeting BEFORE the invasion, let alone now. As much as I admire Zelenskyi, I do think he has been somewhat cynical using this crisis to try and push through EU membership.

 

Forget NATO, that won’t happen in Putin’s lifetime.

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Forget NATO, that won’t happen in Putin’s lifetime.

So a couple of months off then ?

[badgerx16]

11 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Neither is going to happen any time soon. I’m sure some Europhiles on here will be able to explain in much more detail than me but there are a whole bunch of social and economic requirements for applying to join the EU, which Ukraine weren’t even close to meeting BEFORE the invasion, let alone now. As much as I admire Zelenskyi, I do think he has been somewhat cynical using this crisis to try and push through EU membership.

 

Ukraine's economy wasn't close to meeting the conditions for joining the Euro, which is mandatory for new members of the EU. Over the last fortnight it will have been set back years if not decades.

[whelk]

2 hours ago, egg said:

It's hardly hindsight when a "lunatic" points it out on advance. Our reliance on Russia for oil and gas, and on China for manufacturing and goodness knows what is, has been known for many years. As Trump said, that reliance leads to the extortion that we're seeing now with Russia. If we won't risk the gas tap being switched off over Ukraine (or a nuke) will we do that for Moldova, Finland or a Nato country. 

We've as good as told him that he's got us by bollocks. Which he has. 

You worry me with your perception of Russia. Are you house sharing with Batman?

[Lighthouse]

2 minutes ago, whelk said:

You worry me with your perception of Russia. Are you house sharing with Batman?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_racking

[badgerx16]

Priti Patel lies to the HoC, who'd have thought it.

 

The Home Secretary stands up and says "I can confirm that we have established a Visa Administration Centre in Calais". A Home Office official tells the press later "We have started to set it up". Apparently there is currently a table with 3 people handing out ready salted crisps and chocolate bars.

 

However, given that Ukrainian refugees are free to travel throughout the Schengen area, what is to stop them going to Ireland then simply crossing the border into Ulster ?

Edited 8 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

Priti Patel lies to the HoC, who'd have thought it.

 

The Home Secretary stands up and says "I can confirm that we have established a Visa Administration Centre in Calais". A Home Office official tells the press later "We have started to set it up". Apparently there is currently a table with 3 people handing out ready salted crisps and chocolate bars.

 

However, given that Ukrainian refugees are free to travel throughout the Schengen area, what is to stop them going to Ireland then simply crossing the border into Ulster ?

The fact that Ireland is not part of the Schengen Agreement?

[badgerx16]

33 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

The fact that Ireland is not part of the Schengen Agreement?

But Ireland are part of the EU scheme to allow visa free travel and settlement for up to 3 years.

[Whitey Grandad]

14 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

But Ireland are part of the EU scheme to allow visa free travel and settlement for up to 3 years.

Not the same thing.

[Weston Super Saint]

37 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

But Ireland are part of the EU scheme to allow visa free travel and settlement for up to 3 years.

So they can live in Ireland for up to 3 years, or cross the water to England and end up living somewhere like Wolverhampton or Coventry.

Not sure there's much of a dilemma there...

[Tamesaint]

13 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

So they can live in Ireland for up to 3 years, or cross the water to England and end up living somewhere like Wolverhampton or Coventry.

Not sure there's much of a dilemma there...

Or Weston Super Mare.🥱

[badgerx16]

39 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Not the same thing.

True, but they do get an inhindered route to Ireland.

[Weston Super Saint]

3 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

Or Weston Super Mare.🥱

Yes

[Whitey Grandad]

26 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

True, but they do get an inhindered route to Ireland.

You think? Entry visas are usually country-specific or have special conditions. A UK national for example can only stay for 90 days in any 180 day period.

[Weston Super Saint]

10 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

You think? Entry visas are usually country-specific or have special conditions. A UK national for example can only stay for 90 days in any 180 day period.

I'm not convinced UK Nationals would be seeking asylum from war in Ireland would they?

[badgerx16]

18 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

You think? Entry visas are usually country-specific or have special conditions. A UK national for example can only stay for 90 days in any 180 day period.

The EU scheme for Ukrainian refugees is visa free and covers the Schengen area and Ireland. They can travel freely and stay for up to 3 years.

[egg]

6 hours ago, whelk said:

You worry me with your perception of Russia. Are you house sharing with Batman?

Did you miss that we get shit loads of gas from them with no obvious alternative? We've taken a strong line on their oil, and let's see how that goes. 

[AlexLaw76]

How long before we see pictures of £2 a ltr of fuel?

Edited 8 March, 2022 by AlexLaw76

[aintforever]

Or before Russia turn off the gas?

[ecuk268]

15 minutes ago, egg said:

Did you miss that we get shit loads of gas from them with no obvious alternative? We've taken a strong line on their oil, and let's see how that goes. 

We only get 3% of our gas from Russia.

[Jimmy_D]

30 minutes ago, ecuk268 said:

We only get 3% of our gas from Russia.

That's oil.

It's about 40% of our gas.

The UK's energy mix has about 40% gas, so the gas and oil being cut off from Russia would be about 16-18% cut in the UK's energy mix, so it's a significant cut, but probably relatively manageable, especially as we're coming out of winter.

Russia cutting the oil and gas would impact other places, in some places far more heavily, so the remaining oil and gas that we use would see a far higher demand (or rather, the supply would be lower with the same demand) and see higher prices as a result, especially if this ends up stretching into next winter.

Some of that increased demand would be mitigated by Russia being forced to sell into a far smaller market, hence at a far lower price. That'd result in China mainly buying more from Russia and turn reducing demand on remaining oil and gas, but it certainly wouldn't offset it completely.

[egg]

10 minutes ago, ecuk268 said:

We only get 3% of our gas from Russia.

Are you sure that's correct? Sure we get plenty from the eu, and what's the source of that. Regardless, "We" being the Western world. The EU are dependent on Russia for gas. 

[whelk]

36 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

That's oil.

It's about 40% of our gas.

The UK's energy mix has about 40% gas, so the gas and oil being cut off from Russia would be about 16-18% cut in the UK's energy mix, so it's a significant cut, but probably relatively manageable, especially as we're coming out of winter.

Russia cutting the oil and gas would impact other places, in some places far more heavily, so the remaining oil and gas that we use would see a far higher demand (or rather, the supply would be lower with the same demand) and see higher prices as a result, especially if this ends up stretching into next winter.

Some of that increased demand would be mitigated by Russia being forced to sell into a far smaller market, hence at a far lower price. That'd result in China mainly buying more from Russia and turn reducing demand on remaining oil and gas, but it certainly wouldn't offset it completely.

No it isn’t. EU get 40% of gas. UK get  5% from Russia

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58637094

Edited 8 March, 2022 by whelk
Link added

[whelk]

1 hour ago, egg said:

Did you miss that we get shit loads of gas from them with no obvious alternative? We've taken a strong line on their oil, and let's see how that goes. 

5%. Amazing though how so many seem to not be able to willing to undergo any sacrifice for freedom. That or just shit it about little midget bully boy’s rhetoric. 

Edited 8 March, 2022 by whelk

[whelk]

59 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How long before we see pictures of £2 a ltr of fuel?

Funny that US are going mental at $4 a gallon but we are close to $10 in Uk

[Jimmy_D]

9 minutes ago, whelk said:

No it isn’t. EU get 40% of gas. UK get  5% from Russia

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58637094

Ah, yep, sorry.

So around a 2-3% cut overall. Even more manageable, although the point about knock on effects of overall demand still stand.

One thing in our favour is the new energy link with Norway, which should allow us to make more use of our renewable energy generation and make sure less of it is wasted.

[egg]

14 minutes ago, whelk said:

5%. Amazing though how so many seem to not be able to willing to undergo any sacrifice for freedom. That or just shit it about little midget bully boy’s rhetoric. 

We, the western world, are reliant on Russian gas - 35% of Europe's gas comes from there.

I'm all for standing up to the little twat, full on embargo on anything coming from Russia and I'd have Nato implement a no fly zone, and deal with with consequences as necessary. However, given the west's reliance on their oil and gas, plus the nuke threat, he's felt able to do what he wants. Today's decision will hit him hard though. 

Edited 8 March, 2022 by egg

[whelk]

Just now, Jimmy_D said:

Ah, yep, sorry.

So around a 2-3% cut overall. Even more manageable, although the point about knock on effects of overall demand still stand.

One thing in our favour is the new energy link with Norway, which should allow us to make more use of our renewable energy generation and make sure less of it is wasted.

Short-term Russia will impact us but long term that country is getting fucked. Don’t understand the fear of this country that is going to be annihilated by sanctions unless Putin goes. Some seem to think he is master strategist and bombs woudl be coming down in Norfolk unless we yield to his demands. The cunt is toast and has woken up and united the world thanks to his idiot plan

[Jimmy_D]

11 minutes ago, whelk said:

Short-term Russia will impact us but long term that country is getting fucked. Don’t understand the fear of this country that is going to be annihilated by sanctions unless Putin goes. Some seem to think he is master strategist and bombs woudl be coming down in Norfolk unless we yield to his demands. The cunt is toast and has woken up and united the world thanks to his idiot plan

Indeed, feels like this invasion has been the beginning of the end for Putin. He might end up seeing no way out, and how he'll react to that is unpredictable. Before that though, the combined effects of inflation caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine aren't insignificant, people are already feeling it pretty heavily and it's going to get worse.

Long term, the world is already moving away from fossil fuels. Probably not nearly fast enough, but it'll get there eventually. It'll be painful in the meantime though.

Assuming Putin goes one way or another, most likely exile, prison, or old age, there's going to be a huge power vacuum in a nuclear armed country. I've got no idea of the leadership structure or path of succession beyond Putin acting as if he'll live forever and always be in absolute power. How that turns out is anyone's guess.

[badgerx16]

Sanctions about to get serious; Maccy D's is closing all of it's outlets in Russia.

[Jimmy_D]

10 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Sanctions about to get serious; Maccy D's is closing all of it's outlets in Russia.

Doesn't sound like much, but does a Russian care more about living their day to day life as they normally do, or more about parts of Ukraine being part of Russia?

State TV in Russia might be telling them that everything is going according to plan to defeat the evil Ukraine nazified leadership that are going to point nuclear weapons at them, but it won't be adding up with what they see happening in the rest of their day to day life.

[Lighthouse]

Poland is going to give Ukraine all their Mig-29s, under the agreement that Uncle Sam will replace them with comparable aircraft, most likely F16s.

[buctootim]

1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

Doesn't sound like much, but does a Russian care more about living their day to day life as they normally do, or more about parts of Ukraine being part of Russia?

State TV in Russia might be telling them that everything is going according to plan to defeat the evil Ukraine nazified leadership that are going to point nuclear weapons at them, but it won't be adding up with what they see happening in the rest of their day to day life.

Exactly. Things like sanctions or asset freezes seem like abstract issues unrelated to daily life for many people. Half of the high street closing down and everyday products disappearing from the supermarket is a sign that isnt ignored.   

[kyle04]

22 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Poland is going to give Ukraine all their Mig-29s, under the agreement that Uncle Sam will replace them with comparable aircraft, most likely F16s.

Ah good, the US were stalling on their part of the deal, "backfilling" they called it,  no new F16's rolling off the production line or something, too lazy to look it up right now. So Ukraine get some combat aircraft their pilots are familiar with and Poland get an upgraded air force. It's not a vast number, 30 or so but Zalensky must be happier right now.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

53 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Exactly. Things like sanctions or asset freezes seem like abstract issues unrelated to daily life for many people. Half of the high street closing down and everyday products disappearing from the supermarket is a sign that isnt ignored.   

Never underestimate the power of nationalism. Going without makes people feel they are contributing to the war effort, it unites people. We receive a lot of propaganda as well and I would wager that public opinion in Russia remains firmly behind Putin. What changes the mood is body bags and not only do Russians have a higher threshold, I would doubt they will be told the scale of their losses. An end to this ghastly episode will not be driven by people power in this early stage, it will be Putin appreciating he has bitten off more than he can chew but even then he will have to have an exit where he does not lose face. If he were to get the Donbass region then that should do the job. Would the Ukrainians take that?

A certain conclusion might even heal that festering wound in the East. The legacy may even be positive and create stability in the region with Putin not prepared to pursue is historical fantasies.

That is an amateur viewpoint of course. I never thought they would invade!  

[Mystic Force]

3 minutes ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

Never underestimate the power of nationalism. Going without makes people feel they are contributing to the war effort, it unites people. We receive a lot of propaganda as well and I would wager that public opinion in Russia remains firmly behind Putin. What changes the mood is body bags and not only do Russians have a higher threshold, I would doubt they will be told the scale of their losses. An end to this ghastly episode will not be driven by people power in this early stage, it will be Putin appreciating he has bitten off more than he can chew but even then he will have to have an exit where he does not lose face. If he were to get the Donbass region then that should do the job. Would the Ukrainians take that?

A certain conclusion might even heal that festering wound in the East. The legacy may even be positive and create stability in the region with Putin not prepared to pursue is historical fantasies.

That is an amateur viewpoint of course. I never thought they would invade!  

We have already seen they have the body evaporating mobile crematorium thing so that probably not going to be an issue. Just peoples sons never showing up again. Easier to hide true losses this way. Plus they won't be telling anyone this for sometime one imagines.

[AlexLaw76]

Trying to change the narrative?

 

[Sheaf Saint]

7 minutes ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

Never underestimate the power of nationalism. Going without makes people feel they are contributing to the war effort, it unites people. We receive a lot of propaganda as well and I would wager that public opinion in Russia remains firmly behind Putin. What changes the mood is body bags and not only do Russians have a higher threshold, I would doubt they will be told the scale of their losses. An end to this ghastly episode will not be driven by people power in this early stage, it will be Putin appreciating he has bitten off more than he can chew but even then he will have to have an exit where he does not lose face. If he were to get the Donbass region then that should do the job. Would the Ukrainians take that?

A certain conclusion might even heal that festering wound in the East. The legacy may even be positive and create stability in the region with Putin not prepared to pursue is historical fantasies.

That is an amateur viewpoint of course. I never thought they would invade!  

My brother's wife is originally from Russia and her father was in the Red Army. Despite not living there for many years, she remains utterly convinced Putin is the Messiah and has been sharing the most horrendous propaganda videos online recently, essentially claiming Ukraine brought it all on themselves. 

[Lighthouse]

12 minutes ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

If he were to get the Donbass region then that should do the job. Would the Ukrainians take that?

A certain conclusion might even heal that festering wound in the East. The legacy may even be positive and create stability in the region with Putin not prepared to pursue is historical fantasies.

That is an amateur viewpoint of course. I never thought they would invade!  

Basically no to all of that.

• If Putin gets any of the LPR/DPR or Crimea, legit, he will only come to the conclusion that it worked and try it again further down the line, except probably with better military planning and execution.
• Ukraine will never cede territory to Russia and nor should they.
• If it did happen it will do anything but heal that wound. The Ukrainians are furious about this and the idea of Putin getting rewarded for it with chunks of their country will not lead to any kind of peace.
• Too much damage has already been done to hope for any kind of positivity with regards to Putin. What was a see-saw country between East and West now has a sack of cement firmly on the pro EU/NATO end. I know someone who has literally changed her spoken language over this.

[whelk]

18 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

My brother's wife is originally from Russia and her father was in the Red Army. Despite not living there for many years, she remains utterly convinced Putin is the Messiah and has been sharing the most horrendous propaganda videos online recently, essentially claiming Ukraine brought it all on themselves. 

Clearly many supporting Putin but seems to be on wane. Interesting to see how pans out as first real war that has been covered on internet.  

older generations rely on State tv but kids not so much
 

 

[kyle04]

There was talk of Putin wanting to overthrow Zalensky and replace him with his puppet, effectively taking over the whole country and re-establishing rule form Moscow. Now he's asking for the Crimea (which he has already) and the Donbas, which he effectively has a semblence of control of. Has he backed down a little realizing the current campaign is unsustainable or was he bluffing in the first place, who knows. The invasion has been a shambles from Russia's point of view, the fact they're apparently vaporizing bodies to hide the losses is the latest sick action from a truely sinister regime, their soldiers have families who will just be told KIA, no body.

[whelk]

No Coca-Cola now or Starbucks 

[CB Fry]

1 minute ago, kyle04 said:

There was talk of Putin wanting to overthrow Zalensky and replace him with his puppet

I think if he installed a puppet government led by Sweep, I think the global community would get behind it.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

16 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Basically no to all of that.

• If Putin gets any of the LPR/DPR or Crimea, legit, he will only come to the conclusion that it worked and try it again further down the line, except probably with better military planning and execution.
• Ukraine will never cede territory to Russia and nor should they.
• If it did happen it will do anything but heal that wound. The Ukrainians are furious about this and the idea of Putin getting rewarded for it with chunks of their country will not lead to any kind of peace.
• Too much damage has already been done to hope for any kind of positivity with regards to Putin. What was a see-saw country between East and West now has a sack of cement firmly on the pro EU/NATO end. I know someone who has literally changed her spoken language over this.

Has his nose not been bloodied enough to make him think again? He has totally underestimated how much people in satellite countries value their freedom. These are Nato countries and if Nato can rally together enough to make a difference in a non Nato country they will not want to get involved in places where Nato defence is enshrined.

I think you underestimate how much Ukrainians would want to return to a normal life. Peace in this part of the country might even be welcomed. They did not kick off too much over Crimea and these are parts of Ukrainian where Russians predominate (I think). That is why they already control them.

All wars end and I think that if it is handled right then both sides can be felt they have won and it can be cut short. What the bravery of the Ukrainians has done is to give them a far more powerful negotiating position.    

As I say I am just an armchair observer with no experience of the region. 

[Lighthouse]

16 minutes ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

Has his nose not been bloodied enough to make him think again? He has totally underestimated how much people in satellite countries value their freedom. These are Nato countries and if Nato can rally together enough to make a difference in a non Nato country they will not want to get involved in places where Nato defence is enshrined.

I think you underestimate how much Ukrainians would want to return to a normal life. Peace in this part of the country might even be welcomed. They did not kick off too much over Crimea and these are parts of Ukrainian where Russians predominate (I think). That is why they already control them.

All wars end and I think that if it is handled right then both sides can be felt they have won and it can be cut short. What the bravery of the Ukrainians has done is to give them a far more powerful negotiating position.    

As I say I am just an armchair observer with no experience of the region. 

Russia seized Crimea at a time of political upheaval in Ukraine, with protests across the country in both directions. They were too preoccupied and disorganised to do much about Russia seizing their Black Sea naval operation.

I'm not an expert either but from the people I know who live there, giving away territory to a man like Putin, after months or even years of him using thermobaric weapons against schools and hospitals, is not going to feel anything like a win.

[farawaysaint]

6 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Russia seized Crimea at a time of political upheaval in Ukraine, with protests across the country in both directions. They were too preoccupied and disorganised to do much about Russia seizing their Black Sea naval operation.

I'm not an expert either but from the people I know who live there, giving away territory to a man like Putin, after months or even years of him using thermobaric weapons against schools and hospitals, is not going to feel anything like a win.

I can say from the people I know from Crimea there was considerable support for the Russian takeover. 
 

The difference being it was largely bloodless and quick I suppose and the vast majority are ethnic Russians.

[aintforever]

31 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Russia seized Crimea at a time of political upheaval in Ukraine, with protests across the country in both directions. They were too preoccupied and disorganised to do much about Russia seizing their Black Sea naval operation.

I'm not an expert either but from the people I know who live there, giving away territory to a man like Putin, after months or even years of him using thermobaric weapons against schools and hospitals, is not going to feel anything like a win.

It won’t feel like a win but it’s got to be better than the alternative which is probably the destruction of the whole country. The Ukrainians are putting up a good fight but the sheer size of the Russian army will surely tell in the end. 

If they announced an end to the fighting with the Russians retreating to the Donbas tonight I’m pretty sure those sheltering in the bunkers in Kiev will see it as a victory.

[badgerx16]

Crimea only became part of Ukraine in 1954.

[AlexLaw76]