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Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales  

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  1. 1. Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales

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40 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

 

15 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

Didn’t Diane Abbott say the same and get vilified for it?

That is an alternative, yet deeply flawed, view of events. Whether the West were enticing Ukraine or not, is it not their choice ? As things stood a week ago, Ukraine had not aplied to join NATO or the EU; there were no NATO troops or weapons in Ukraine; and Ukraine had not made any belligerent moves or comments to threaten Russia. Putin got away with Crimea, got away with intervening in Donetsk and Luhansk, and the level of inaction from the West in the face of his revisionist rewriting of history has fed into his delusion of rebuilding the Great and Glorious Russian Empire.

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3 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

 

 

That is an alternative, yet deeply flawed, view of events. Whether the West were enticing Ukraine or not, is it not their choice ? As things stood a week ago, Ukraine had not aplied to join NATO or the EU; there were no NATO troops or weapons in Ukraine; and Ukraine had not made any belligerent moves or comments to threaten Russia. Putin got away with Crimea, got away with intervening in Donetsk and Luhansk, and the level of inaction from the West in the face of his revisionist rewriting of history has fed into his delusion of rebuilding the Great and Glorious Russian Empire.

Apparently, there are US 'BIO lab's around Ukraine, which have since been closed-down/relocated since the start of the conflict.

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1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Apparently, there are US 'BIO lab's around Ukraine, which have since been closed-down/relocated since the start of the conflict.

Apparently the US Presidential election was stolen from Donald Trump. It's amazing what you can find out if you can get access to the Internet.

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1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

Apparently the US Presidential election was stolen from Donald Trump. It's amazing what you can find out if you can get access to the Internet.

https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/pentagon-doesnt-want-you-to-see-these-documents-about-biolabs-in-ukraine/

https://sam.gov/opp/0bd0de5ba5f94fc29d85b37a0a4b253b/view

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1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

I read all of that and I couldn't have stated my view of it any clearer than this comment directly below the article:

"It is worth asking about the people living in what Russia sees as its private security zone. Do the Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, not to mention Poles and Finns want to live in a nation controlled from Moscow, like Belarus? Looks like no. If the author could take time off from blaming his own side for everything bad that has ever happened, it would be useful if he could propose some political arrangement that he thinks would satisfy Russia – so they were not tempted to go to war to get more – and comment on the price that he wants people of Eastern Europe to pay for it."

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1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

1) You do realise that Bolsanaro backs Putin ?

2) Taken at face value that indicates a "Threat Reduction" capability aimed at neutralising pathogenic agents.

 

Tell us, dear Alexei, why do you think this war has happened ?

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26 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

1) You do realise that Bolsanaro backs Putin ?

2) Taken at face value that indicates a "Threat Reduction" capability aimed at neutralising pathogenic agents.

 

Tell us, dear Alexei, why do you think this war has happened ?

Face value you say....

Why has this happened? No idea really.  Probably a bit of everything both sides have suggested has led to this point.

What I am thankful for is that we have refused to police a No-Fly Zone, which I hope remains the case.

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1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

 

 

That is an alternative, yet deeply flawed, view of events. Whether the West were enticing Ukraine or not, is it not their choice ? As things stood a week ago, Ukraine had not aplied to join NATO or the EU; there were no NATO troops or weapons in Ukraine; and Ukraine had not made any belligerent moves or comments to threaten Russia. Putin got away with Crimea, got away with intervening in Donetsk and Luhansk, and the level of inaction from the West in the face of his revisionist rewriting of history has fed into his delusion of rebuilding the Great and Glorious Russian Empire.

There are two sides to every story of course and many shades of grey instead of black and white. I understand why Putin might want to make an issue of NATO expanding although it is a defensive rather than offensive alliance. What doesn’t stack up is any argument that Putin is a sane, rational man. His pronouncement of late have all the trappings of paranoia and a blinkered nationalistic sense of entitlement. I don’t know if years in power have corrupted him absolutely, but those who have met him say he has changed. He comes across now as a second rate Bond villain. That has nothing to do with the western media but everything to do with the way he presents himself and his actions. There is nothing in his concerns for Russia that couldn’t be addressed around the negotiating table. The West and it’s foreign policies are often far from perfect, but Putin has chosen armed conflict to try and return things to the way they were in the last century and speaks in the language of Hitler. No one is forcing him to lie to his own people. To say the media in the West have brainwashed us is nothing like the brainwashing that goes on in Russia. Putin is clearly a very dangerous man. It doesn’t need the Western media to paint him as a villain, he has done that himself.

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23 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Face value you say....

 

"Exception to Fair Opportunity for Countering Especially Dangerous Pathogen Threats in Ukraine

Department/Ind. Agency
DEPT OF DEFENSE
Sub-tier
DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY (DTRA)
Office
DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY"
 
But then, I assume you did actually read what you linked to.
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26 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Face value you say....

Why has this happened? No idea really.  Probably a bit of everything both sides have suggested has led to this point.

What I am thankful for is that we have refused to police a No-Fly Zone, which I hope remains the case.

If, as has been suggested, Putin continues to invade non NATO countries to expand his empire, at what point would you consider us policing a no fly zone? 0r are you content to see him steamroller other countries that aren’t members of NATO until he has gotten all that he wants?

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5 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

If, as has been suggested, Putin continues to invade non NATO countries to expand his empire, at what point would you consider us policing a no fly zone? 0r are you content to see him steamroller other countries that aren’t members of NATO until he has gotten all that he wants?

The only hope is that this excursion proves so painful that somebody finally finds the balls to get rid of him. There is no hiding body bags, and if the sanctions hold then the younger portion of the population, born since 1990 and raised with a Western looking perspective, will wonder where therir designer clothes, cars, and Samsung mobile phone upgrades have gone.

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10 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

If, as has been suggested, Putin continues to invade non NATO countries to expand his empire, at what point would you consider us policing a no fly zone? 0r are you content to see him steamroller other countries that aren’t members of NATO until he has gotten all that he wants?

Exactly. If we refuse to act now because it would mean fighting a country with nukes - then the whole NATO mutual defence guarantee becomes meaningless when later on when he threatens the Baltics - let alone Finland, Sweden, Moldova, Georgia etc.  

Let's face it Russia is going to win in Ukraine unless the West intervenes - and if it does Putin is going to be even more emboldened to take the other ex USSR states. The Serbs are starting to stir with eyes on Bosnia again. This really is a rerun of 1938, act a bit now or big time later. Better to smack him down now by backing up Ukraine        

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3 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Exactly. If we refuse to act now because it would mean fighting a country with nukes - then the whole NATO mutual defence guarantee becomes meaningless. 

Let's face it Russia is going to win in Ukraine unless the West intervenes - and if it does Putin is going to be even more emboldened to take the other ex USSR states. The Serbs are starting to stir with eyes on Bosnia again. This really is a rerun of 1938, act a bit now or big time later.      

Where does he realistically have to go without invading a NATO country. Finland and Sweden are hurriedly talking about joining, Belarus is Russian territory in all but name, He's going to be bogged down in a civil war in Ukraine, which basically leaves Moldova to invade before he's essentially toe-to-toe with NATO all along his Western border. All the while, his economy continues to tank and he has a very expensive war and occupation to pay for.

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2 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Where does he realistically have to go without invading a NATO country. Finland and Sweden are hurriedly talking about joining, Belarus is Russian territory in all but name, He's going to be bogged down in a civil war in Ukraine, which basically leaves Moldova to invade before he's essentially toe-to-toe with NATO all along his Western border. All the while, his economy continues to tank and he has a very expensive war and occupation to pay for.

Ukraine was 'talking about joining'.  He's obsessed with not only recreating the Soviet borders but also the sphere of influence over the Warsaw Pact and Balkan countries.  Imo if we do nothing now he will annexe Belarus, invade Moldova and Bosnia. Then take slices out of neighbouring countries like Finland on the basis they are ethnically Russian historically and challenging NATO to respond whilst threatening use of nukes.   

NATO and national Governments are saying they dont want to get into a wider war, especially with a nuclear power. But that will still be the situation if we let Ukraine get destroyed and Putin simply gets more confidence 

 

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6 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Ukraine was 'talking about joining'.  He's obsessed with not only recreating the Soviet borders but also the sphere of influence over the Warsaw Pact and Balkan countries.  Imo if we do nothing now he will annexe Belarus, invade Moldova and Bosnia. Then take slices out of neighbouring countries like Finland on the basis they are ethnically Russian historically and challenging NATO to respond whilst threatening use of nukes.   

NATO and national Governments are saying they dont want to get into a wider war, especially with a nuclear power. But that will still be the situation if we let Ukraine get destroyed and Putin simply gets more confidence 

 

How does he invade Bosnia, without first sending his forces through a NATO country? I’ll be wildly optimistic on Putin’s behalf and say Belarus complies with no opposition and Ukraine and Moldova both collapse. Then what? Supposing he attacks Finland, NATO would respond, then he find himself facing a far superior force along a border thousands of miles long. His resources and logistics are already stretched trying to get hold of half of Ukraine.

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12 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

How does he invade Bosnia, without first sending his forces through a NATO country? I’ll be wildly optimistic on Putin’s behalf and say Belarus complies with no opposition and Ukraine and Moldova both collapse. Then what? Supposing he attacks Finland, NATO would respond, then he find himself facing a far superior force along a border thousands of miles long. His resources and logistics are already stretched trying to get hold of half of Ukraine.

Why would NATO respond over Finland? It hasn't over Ukraine. Both are non members.  The signalling to Putin has been 'they are fair game, take a slice'.

Bosnia would be through the Bosnian Serbs  - helping fellow Slavs stave off vicious (non existent) attacks 

Realistically how long do you think sanctions will hold if Ukraine is defeated and Chinese companies start to take market share?   

  

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3 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Why would NATO respond over Finland? It hasn't over Ukraine. Both are non members.  The signalling to Putin has been they are fair game, take a slice.

Bosnia would be through the Bosnian Serbs  - helping fellow Slavs stave off vicious (non existent) attacks 

Realistically how long do you think sanctions will hold once Chinese companies start to take market share?   

  

Finland look very likely to join, with the threat being the way it is and I still don’t see how any why there’s going to be another Yugoslav war, just because Serbia is pro-Russian. Russia can’t send any military hardware there without passing through a NATO country first.

 

China may well take advantage of the situation but it’ll be completely on their own terms. Russia has literally nothing to bargain with. It may well take the sting off things but it won’t pay for a marauding Russian sweep across central and Northern Europe.

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7 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Why would NATO respond over Finland? It hasn't over Ukraine. Both are non members.  The signalling to Putin has been - they are fair game, take a slice.

Bosnia would be through the Bosnian Serbs  - helping fellow Slavs stave off vicious (non existent) attacks   

If Russia have had logistical problems in Ukraine, that’s nothing compared to what they’d face in Finland, never mind the level of gun ownership in Finland, and the level of attrition they’ll be facing from taking and trying to hold Ukraine at the same time.

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7 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Why would NATO respond over Finland? It hasn't over Ukraine. Both are non members.  The signalling to Putin has been they are fair game, take a slice.

Bosnia would be through the Bosnian Serbs  - helping fellow Slavs stave off vicious (non existent) attacks 

Realistically how long do you think sanctions will hold once Chinese companies start to take market share?   

  

Agreed although I'm not sure re Bosnia. Nato stance on Ukraine will be the same for all other non Nato countries. Putin has been given the green light to do as he wishes with non Nato countries, with Moldova and Finland being obvious targets. I still think he may test the west with a Nato country - Nato's unwillingness to engage In a non Nato country could be seen as a sign of reluctance to engage at all. 

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1 minute ago, Jimmy_D said:

If Russia have had logistical problems in Ukraine, that’s nothing compared to what they’d face in Finland, never mind the level of gun ownership in Finland, and the level of attrition they’ll be facing from taking and trying to hold Ukraine at the same time.

How much freedom fighting / terrorism was there after Soviet invasion of Poland, Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia etc. How many bombs going off in Georgia? 

How long do you think Finland's 3,000 strong army plus conscripts would last? 

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3 minutes ago, egg said:

Agreed although I'm not sure re Bosnia. Nato stance on Ukraine will be the same for all other non Nato countries. Putin has been given the green light to do as he wishes with non Nato countries, with Moldova and Finland being obvious targets. I still think he may test the west with a Nato country - Nato's unwillingness to engage In a non Nato country could be seen as a sign of reluctance to engage at all. 

Agree Bosnia is a maybe - but I do think he'll try and rekindle conflict there by proxy. 

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2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Oil, gas, iron, titanium, coal, fertilisers, wheat - 85% of their exports and none of which are sanctioned oddly enough   

Yes but they NEED to sell to China at pretty much whatever price the Chinese offer. Russia can't just cut the USA and EU out of it's trade and carry on with China as if nothing happened.

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3 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Yes but they NEED to sell to China at pretty much whatever price the Chinese offer. Russia can't just cut the USA and EU out of it's trade and carry on with China as if nothing happened.

Nope. Not so long ago oil was $50 per barrel, now its about $115. Russia is having to discount its oil by around $15 per barrel to sell it  - but that still means they are earning way more than they did before the war inflated the price. Ditto gas, roughly three times the price now compared with before. Sanctions will have a long term effect IF they are adhered to and kept up,  but right now Putin is minting it no matter what the DE say.

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1 minute ago, Lighthouse said:

Yes but they NEED to sell to China at pretty much whatever price the Chinese offer. Russia can't just cut the USA and EU out of it's trade and carry on with China as if nothing happened.

There's India, Brazil and others too. The world economic dynamics will change massively as a result of this. The irony is that those imposing the sanctions will suffer much of the brunt of them. 

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12 minutes ago, buctootim said:

How much freedom fighting / terrorism was there after Soviet invasion of Poland, Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia etc. 

 

There was a 3 year widespread insurrection in Poland following the Soviet 'liberation' from the Nazis, ( 1944-47 ), with at least 200,000 partisans fighting. This trickled on until at least 1954. In fact the last partisan killed in combat was in 1963.

East Germany was a militarily occupied defeated enemy state - how much 'resistance' was there in the 3 Western sectors ?

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11 minutes ago, buctootim said:

How much freedom fighting / terrorism was there after Soviet invasion of Poland, Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia etc. How many bombs going off in Georgia? 

How long do you think Finland's 3,000 strong army plus conscripts would last? 

If you want to go back to that time, you don’t need to compare with those countries, you can just look at the actual Russian invasion of Finland.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

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4 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

There was a 3 year widespread insurrection in Poland following the Soviet 'liberation' from the Nazis, ( 1944-47 ), with at least 200,000 partisans fighting. This trickled on until 1954.

East Germany was a militarily occupied defeated enemy state - how much 'resistance' was there in the 3 Western sectors ?

Maybe 20,000 not 200,000. And it stopped pretty quickly because people got killed and imprisoned - just like Putin does now.  

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4 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

If you want to go back to that time, you don’t need to compare with those countries, you can just look at the actual Russian invasion of Finland.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

Everyone knows that hoary old story. There were very specific and exceptional circumstances around that - and Finland still lost 25,000 men and a big chunk of land.  

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2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Maybe 20,000 not 200,000. And it stopped pretty quickly because people got killed and imprisoned - just like Putin does now.  

"It is estimated that following the end of WWII over 200,000 people were involved in partisan warfare."

"Organized combat continued on Polish territory until the 1950s"

https://warsawinstitute.org/post-war-war-years-1944-1963-poland/

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14 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

"It is estimated that following the end of WWII over 200,000 people were involved in partisan warfare."

"Organized combat continued on Polish territory until the 1950s"

https://warsawinstitute.org/post-war-war-years-1944-1963-poland/

Those numbers arent credible - especially given how comparatively few incidents / successes there were. Its like claiming there were 200,000 people involved in the NI troubles and they went on from 1967 - 2022. 

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20 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Everyone knows that hoary old story. There were very specific and exceptional circumstances around that - and Finland still lost 25,000 men and a big chunk of land.  

You’re the one that started comparing to fighting back then.

Finland would still be a far tougher prospect than Ukraine now, considering the terrain, the armed populace, forces being split between Ukraine and Finland, and the lack of access to borders Russia has to Finland compared to Ukraine.

Add in that a further invasion would turn even more of the world against Russia, and it seems unlikely Putin would consider it viable any time soon. He’s struggling enough with Ukraine already.

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47 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Nope. Not so long ago oil was $50 per barrel, now its about $115. Russia is having to discount its oil by around $15 per barrel to sell it  - but that still means they are earning way more than they did before the war inflated the price. Ditto gas, roughly three times the price now compared with before. Sanctions will have a long term effect IF they are adhered to and kept up,  but right now Putin is minting it no matter what the DE say.

So why on Earth would China start buying massive quantities of it right now?

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7 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

So why on Earth would China start buying massive quantities of it right now?

Not sure what your point is. Oil demand is the same, supply is the same. Some companies are avoiding Russian oil but others dont care - especially if its cheaper. 

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1 minute ago, buctootim said:

Not sure what your point is. Oil demand is the same, supply is the same. Some companies are avoiding Russian oil but others dont care - especially if its cheaper. 

That’s pretty much my point, you’ve just said oil was recently reading around $50, so why on Earth would people be rushing to buy now when it’s $115? The price will stabilise eventually, the sanctions will still be in place and Russia's economy will suffer for it. They will be tied up in Ukraine for the foreseeable future and won’t have the financial or military resources to launch an offence in Finland or any NATO country.

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4 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

That’s pretty much my point, you’ve just said oil was recently reading around $50, so why on Earth would people be rushing to buy now when it’s $115? The price will stabilise eventually, the sanctions will still be in place and Russia's economy will suffer for it. They will be tied up in Ukraine for the foreseeable future and won’t have the financial or military resources to launch an offence in Finland or any NATO country.

Two reasons. 1. Its cheaper to hedge against price volatility than pay for storage hoping the price increases in the future and 2 most importantly - oil companies need new constant supply to replace the oil used yesterday, today and tomorrow.   Its not like gold or bitcoin. 

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1 minute ago, whelk said:

It is a Saintsweb bed wetter thing that you all seem very defeatist?

Omens aren't good are they? We encouraged the Ukrainians to think they could be in the EU and NATO, we encouraged them to dump the Russia led economic equivalents of the EU and NATO, we sold them arms, promised them support, and when they eventually got invaded said "sorry, too risky, on yer own mate"    

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10 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Omens aren't good are they? We encouraged the Ukrainians to think they could be in the EU and NATO, we encouraged them to dump the Russia led economic equivalents of the EU and NATO, we sold them arms, promised them support, and when they eventually got invaded said "sorry, too risky, on yer own mate"    

I think Russia has massively miscalculated this one and will be the end of Putin. Terrible for Ukrainians and really depresses me thinking what they are, and will endure however has united the west and got rid of complacency about Russia. The sanctions will fuck them and wars are expensive. The population also won’t stand for the restrictions on freedoms they now know and he won’t be able to consistently suppress them all forever.

Ukrainians fighting to the last and always will so no way can he prop up with any meaning with a puppet leader. Just look at bravery and rejection in the cities the Russians have taken.

I don’t know enough to be sure and taking information like many others from the news only.

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12 minutes ago, whelk said:

I think Russia has massively miscalculated this one and will be the end of Putin. Terrible for Ukrainians and really depresses me thinking what they are, and will endure however has united the west and got rid of complacency about Russia. The sanctions will fuck them and wars are expensive. The population also won’t stand for the restrictions on freedoms they now know and he won’t be able to consistently suppress them all forever.

Ukrainians fighting to the last and always will so no way can he prop up with any meaning with a puppet leader. Just look at bravery and rejection in the cities the Russians have taken.

I don’t know enough to be sure and taking information like many others from the news only.

The talk with Sir John Sawers I linked above is worth 30 minutes. On sanctions and domestic pressure for political change he drew a parallel with South Africa and the fact it took 12 years to start to work.   

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27 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Omens aren't good are they? We encouraged the Ukrainians to think they could be in the EU and NATO, we encouraged them to dump the Russia led economic equivalents of the EU and NATO, we sold them arms, promised them support, and when they eventually got invaded said "sorry, too risky, on yer own mate"    

Totally agree with you. Now Russia it biting back and flattening the country.

https://mate.substack.com/p/by-using-ukraine-to-fight-russia?s=w

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9 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Totally agree with you. Now Russia it biting back and flattening the country.

https://mate.substack.com/p/by-using-ukraine-to-fight-russia?s=w

The far right in Ukraine is tiny - less than 2% of the vote ast the last election - far less than places like Germany, France or Italy. Yanukovych got elected on a platform of taking Ukraine into the EU and once he was elected accepted a $1 billion bribe from Putin to bring Ukraine back into the Russian orbit. It was a genuinely popular coup against a betrayal in 2014.  But the process of enticing Ukraine away without protecting them from the consequences, absolutely agree.   

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I know he's an absolute basket case but this latest statement doesn't make any sense...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60633482

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin has described sanctions imposed by Western nations over his invasion of Ukraine as "akin to a declaration of war".

"But thank God it has not come to that," he added.

Last week he was saying that no sanctions would hurt Russia, now he seems to be saying they would be like a war.

No idea what he means with the second line, is he thanking God that war hasn't been declared or that sanctions haven't been imposed?

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8 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I know he's an absolute basket case but this latest statement doesn't make any sense...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60633482

Last week he was saying that no sanctions would hurt Russia, now he seems to be saying they would be like a war.

No idea what he means with the second line, is he thanking God that war hasn't been declared or that sanctions haven't been imposed?

His administration used to say stuff that contradicted what they said last week, on the basis that most people wouldnt remember or care. Now they contradict themselves within the same speech, and Russians still dont seem to care. Its turbocharged gaslighting, scarily revealing about what you can get away with.   

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