Russia

[whelk]

4 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

She can come round here and be tough on me if she likes.

 

 

 

 

I said that out loud again, didn't I.

Tbf she did look good in the Commons today

[Turkish]

🤦‍♂️

[farawaysaint]

I quite enjoy this Twitter which is tracking verified equipment hits by the Ukrainians.

They captured a freaking Russian thermobaric launcher which is pretty much their largest ordnance short of nukes.

 

 

[badgerx16]

21 minutes ago, Turkish said:

🤦‍♂️

Trying to out-Truss the Foreign Secretary.

[Lighthouse]

Shame he wasn't watching to see it.

[badgerx16]

42 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

I quite enjoy this Twitter which is tracking verified equipment hits by the Ukrainians.

They captured a freaking Russian thermobaric launcher which is pretty much their largest ordnance short of nukes.

 

 

From the thread that image comes from :

Oryx

@oryxspioenkop

· 50m

I’ve lost all hope of accurately depicting Russian equipment losses. They’ve become too numerous. For every entry two new losses pop up. Its carnage.

[badgerx16]

 

[RedArmy]

I’m starting to think Putin thought that the invasion was enough to trigger NATO involvement and spark WW3 and when it hasn’t happened he’s a bit lost. 
 

There’s no way they are this badly organised deliberately   They’re queuing up for miles on the way to Kyiv, they’re sitting ducks to anyone with the capability to obliterate them…. Almost as if that’s what he wants. 

[AlexLaw76]

6 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

I’m starting to think Putin thought that the invasion was enough to trigger NATO involvement and spark WW3 and when it hasn’t happened he’s a bit lost. 
 

There’s no way they are this badly organised deliberately   They’re queuing up for miles on the way to Kyiv, they’re sitting ducks to anyone with the capability to obliterate them…. Almost as if that’s what he wants. 

Obviously, that is not Ukraine, which is all that matters, right?

[whelk]

Oligarchs must be just loving this

[badgerx16]

If half of what is being claimed about the Russian army and it's performance in Ukaraine is true, surely NATO has no need to fear a conventional attack.

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Obviously, that is not Ukraine, which is all that matters, right?

No need to obliterate them, just block the head of the column. Units 20Km back will just sit and freeze. There doesn't seem to be much urgency to get the trucks forward, or to find alternative routes.

Edited 1 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[Lighthouse]

From a security meeting in Belarus, apparently they're after the breakaway separatist region of Moldova, also known as Transnistria.

[whelk]

4 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

From a security meeting in Belarus, apparently they're after the breakaway separatist region of Moldova, also known as Transnistria.

What is stopping anyone wiping out Belarus troops? Obviously they have a pyscho ally but seem fair game to me

[farawaysaint]

43 minutes ago, whelk said:

Oligarchs must be just loving this

The FT Moscow reporter raised a great point… What the hell are they going to say?

 

“Mr Putin I lost $4bi of my $5bi. And so? You wish to keep the $1bi?”

[Lighthouse]

1 minute ago, farawaysaint said:

The FT Moscow reporter raised a great point… What the hell are they going to say?

 

“Mr Putin I lost $4bi of my $5bi. And so? You wish to keep the $1bi?”

How about, "okay general, here's a blank cheque, get a couple of your best men into the Kremlin and pour the contents of this bag into his coffee."

[farawaysaint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

From the thread that image comes from :

Oryx

@oryxspioenkop

· 50m

I’ve lost all hope of accurately depicting Russian equipment losses. They’ve become too numerous. For every entry two new losses pop up. Its carnage.

If it interests you here is the website. It is lower than the Ukrainian official count because he is only tracking verified kills and captures. Goes some way to show the losses Russia is taking though and I find it quite fascinating.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Edited 1 March, 2022 by farawaysaint

[benjii]

Seems to me that Putin underestimated the lack of enthusiasm for this within the Russian forces themselves. The young men on the ground don't want to kill Ukrainians and are really in quite a predicament.

Edited 1 March, 2022 by benjii

[Weston Super Saint]

Looks like it's going to take quite a while to 'conquer' Ukraine, so I'm guessing the timetable for marching through Poland has also slipped.  Where does that leave us for the Russian army marching up the Mall, will it be before or after the Jubilee weekend now?

[badgerx16]

8 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

If it interests you here is the website. It is lower than the Ukrainian official count because he is only tracking verified kills. Goes some way to show the losses Russia is taking though and I find it quite fascinating.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

The amount of Russian kit listed as 'abandoned' is telling.

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Looks like it's going to take quite a while to 'conquer' Ukraine, so I'm guessing the timetable for marching through Poland has also slipped.  Where does that leave us for the Russian army marching up the Mall, will it be before or after the Jubilee weekend now?

The way things are going they would run out of equipment long before they reach the German border.

[badgerx16]

Sanctions announced against Lukashenko and Belarus.

[farawaysaint]

Just now, badgerx16 said:

Sanctions announced against Lukashenko and Belarus.

Good, he’s a bigger nut job than Putin.

[Lighthouse]

1 minute ago, farawaysaint said:

Good, he’s a bigger nut job than Putin.

It's s**t or bust for him, he needs Russia to succeed. Without Putin precariously propping his regime up, he'd have been out on his arse long ago. His COVID denial was the final straw for a lot of people. There may even be a danger of his own people taking inspiration from Ukraine and revolting, if this invasion stalls completely.

[Weston Super Saint]

Given the unanimous actions in the sporting world in the past few days - even from FIFA! - it seems odd that they have any sort of decision to make, especially as the biggest fear seems to be a 'legal' challenge from the Russians, who clearly take laws really, really seriously.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/disability-sport/60572242

Quote

A decision about banning Russian athletes from the 2022 Winter Paralympics will be made on Wednesday after it was confirmed the full Ukraine squad will take part in Beijing.

 

[bpsaint]

42 minutes ago, benjii said:

Seems to me that Putin underestimated the lack of enthusiasm for this within the Russian forces themselves. The young men on the ground don't want to kill Ukrainians and are really in quite a predicament.

Interesting point you raise tbf. Imagine signing up to serve your country, and then being sent across the border to kill people from a country that haven’t actually done any wrong, don’t want a war, and frankly don’t want to kill either. Genuinely it must be a massive strain on the Russians mentally. Don’t get me wrong I’m not feeling sorry for them in anyway, but this isn’t some war where there’s very clear sides fighting it out, you only need to look at the civilian protests in Moscow and the likes to see that nobody bar Putin and his top generals actually want this.

Surely the effect the war has on the economy in the west will eventually start proving detrimental to the Far East. At what point does Putin’s mate in China speak out and say enough is enough Vlad, stop this shit now. I’d imagine Jinping is the only other world leader he’d actually listen to.

Edited 1 March, 2022 by bpsaint

[Whitey Grandad]

2 minutes ago, bpsaint said:

Interesting point you raise tbf. Imagine signing up to serve your country, and then being sent across the border to kill people from a country that haven’t actually done any wrong, don’t want a war, and frankly don’t want to kill either. Genuinely it must be a massive strain on the Russians mentally. Don’t get me wrong I’m not feeling sorry for them in anyway, but this isn’t some war where there’s very clear sides fighting it out, you only need to look at the civilian protests in Moscow and the likes to see that nobody bar Putin and his top generals actually want this.

Surely the effect the war has on the economy in the west will eventually start proving detrimental to the Far East. At what point does Putin’s mate in China speak out and say enough is enough Vlad, stop this shit now. I’d imagine Jinping is the only other world leader he’d actually listen to.

From some reports I’ve read the individual soldiers didn’t even know where they were or why they were there. “Exercises” is what they were told.

[buctootim]

Looks like Kharkiv is being destroyed tonight endless barrage of explosions including this thermobaric. Kharkhiv is only 30 miles from the Russian border and overwhelmingly ethnic Russian. Any justification Putin or Lavrov can think up is risible 

 

   

 

[farawaysaint]

27 minutes ago, bpsaint said:

Interesting point you raise tbf. Imagine signing up to serve your country, and then being sent across the border to kill people from a country that haven’t actually done any wrong, don’t want a war, and frankly don’t want to kill either. Genuinely it must be a massive strain on the Russians mentally. Don’t get me wrong I’m not feeling sorry for them in anyway, but this isn’t some war where there’s very clear sides fighting it out, you only need to look at the civilian protests in Moscow and the likes to see that nobody bar Putin and his top generals actually want this.

Surely the effect the war has on the economy in the west will eventually start proving detrimental to the Far East. At what point does Putin’s mate in China speak out and say enough is enough Vlad, stop this shit now. I’d imagine Jinping is the only other world leader he’d actually listen to.

This is the point that I disagree with. Russia has a conscript army, the vast majority are kids doing their required military service not professional soldiers.

 

They are largely terrified with zero desire or option to be there.

Edited 1 March, 2022 by farawaysaint

[badgerx16]

13 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Looks like Kharkiv is being destroyed tonight endless barrage of explosions including this thermobaric. Kharkhiv is only 30 miles from the Russian border and overwhelmingly ethnic Russian. Any justification Putin or Lavrov can think up is risible 

 

   

 

Reports that it was an ammunition depot.

[buctootim]

2 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Reports that it was an ammunition depot.

Thats not an ammunition depot going up. That is a single explosion. You can even see the shock wave.  

[whelk]

15 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

This is the point that I disagree with. Russia has a conscript army, the vast majority are kids doing their required military service not professional soldiers.

 

They are largely terrified with zero desire or option to be there.

Hardly looking like an elite fighting force. 

[buctootim]

1 minute ago, whelk said:

Hardly looking like an elite fighting force. 

 

I saw a video earlier where some Russian troops were wearing WW2 era helmets 

[sadoldgit]

45 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

From some reports I’ve read the individual soldiers didn’t even know where they were or why they were there. “Exercises” is what they were told.

Surely though they understand the difference between an exercise and shooting at live subjects with live ammunition and blowing up towns and cities! 

[badgerx16]

25 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Thats not an ammunition depot going up. That is a single explosion. You can even see the shock wave.  

I didn't say it wasn't a thermobaric bomb, I said that reports say it hit an ammunition depot, whatever it was.

 

 

Edited 1 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[bpsaint]

21 minutes ago, whelk said:

Hardly looking like an elite fighting force. 

Fucking hell look at them, they’re just kids ffs. No wonder they aren’t interested in digging in for the fight and are dumping equipment and running, they’re probably terrified.

Putin has got blood on his hands from both sides that’s for sure.

[kyle04]

Cannon fodder, as one captured Russian put it. Little wonder that that so much Russian armour has just been abandoned/captured, much more than has been "destroyed" according to verified accounts in the oryxspioenkop link posted earlier. It seems an odd strategy when your aim is conquest/regime change to send in so many conscripts first, maybe the thinking was that they are more expendable should all not go to plan initially, which it obviously hasn't. Unfortunately for Ukraine, there will shortly be around 150,000 Russian troops in the country, although estimates vary. Putin will not back down now, he's backed himself into a corner where he either cuts his losses, the architect of a miserable and costly failure, or wades deeper into the mire and secures for himself the mantle of modern day mass murderer, the like of which even the scum in China may start distancing themselves from (once they've done the same to Taiwan of course). How on earth did western Europe let itself become so reliant , economically, on two of the most oppressive and repugnant regimes on the planet?

[Winnersaint]

Evidently it’s all Greta Thunberg's fault! Ahh fuck it I’m going to blow 8 grand on a bike that I have to pedal.

[Millbrook Saint]

56 minutes ago, bpsaint said:

Fucking hell look at them, they’re just kids ffs. No wonder they aren’t interested in digging in for the fight and are dumping equipment and running, they’re probably terrified.

Putin has got blood on his hands from both sides that’s for sure.

And meanwhile the coward and his family are hiding in a nuclear bunker in the middle of Siberia, though granted he probably needs to watch his back now

[buctootim]

rt

Edited 1 March, 2022 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

Russian law prohibits conscriptrs being sent to conflict zones. Western assessments are that many thousands of conscripts, having been sent to the 'exercises' had their status changed from a 12 month conscription term to a 3 year 'contracted' regular soldier, without warning or right to challenge.

[kyle04]

That's OK then, Putin's a stickler for the law obviously.

[badgerx16]

20 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

That's OK then, Putin's a stickler for the law obviously.

It probably explains what we have been seeing so far. At some point soon Russia will have to deploy some far more competent troops, and commit it's airforce fully.

[Jimmy_D]

4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

If half of what is being claimed about the Russian army and it's performance in Ukaraine is true, surely NATO has no need to fear a conventional attack.

A huge part of Russia’s soft power has come from people believing that Russia’s conventional military capability is far more potent than it’s been shown to be in Ukraine. That’s partly down to Zelensky, and the resistance he’s helped inspire. It’s given the West enough time to react, and belief that it’s worth reacting. 

Even if Russia ultimately manage to gain military control in Ukraine, losing that is something Putin won’t have been counting on.

They’re likely to find it almost impossible to maintain that military control long term, with the people being so clearly against it, which seems to be something else Putin miscalculated.

Yet another thing he seems to have miscalculated is the unity shown in sanctions against Russia. They appear to have already gone further than Putin expected, and there seems to be a will for them to go further if needed, especially if Russia remain in Ukraine.

He does still have nuclear capability of course, but Putin can’t use that without consequences for Russia that make anything else in history pale in comparison. I don’t think it’s likely, but still have to hope that he never gets to the point that he doesn’t care about those consequences and no-one stops him.

It’s difficult to really tell exactly what Putin went into this expecting to achieve, and even more difficult to imagine that anything he expected to achieve is possible now, with the way events have unfolded so far.

[benjii]

By the way, Gary Kasparov is an interesting person to follow on Twitter. He's been writing about Putin for years and pretty much predicted all this.

[AlexLaw76]

4 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

A huge part of Russia’s soft power has come from people believing that Russia’s conventional military capability is far more potent than it’s been shown to be in Ukraine. That’s partly down to Zelensky, and the resistance he’s helped inspire. It’s given the West enough time to react, and belief that it’s worth reacting. 

Even if Russia ultimately manage to gain military control in Ukraine, losing that is something Putin won’t have been counting on.

They’re likely to find it almost impossible to maintain that military control long term, with the people being so clearly against it, which seems to be something else Putin miscalculated.

Yet another thing he seems to have miscalculated is the unity shown in sanctions against Russia. They appear to have already gone further than Putin expected, and there seems to be a will for them to go further if needed, especially if Russia remain in Ukraine.

He does still have nuclear capability of course, but Putin can’t use that without consequences for Russia that make anything else in history pale in comparison. I don’t think it’s likely, but still have to hope that he never gets to the point that he doesn’t care about those consequences and no-one stops him.

It’s difficult to really tell exactly what Putin went into this expecting to achieve, and even more difficult to imagine that anything he expected to achieve is possible now, with the way events have unfolded so far.

None of us know what was calculated or not.  There are lots of assumptions that Putin would have expected to have this wrapped up by now. How do we know? The chatter of Putin expecting this to take a day or so is ridiculous IMO. All part of the information war to paint this invasion as a failure from the off.

Compare this to our invasions, they take/took a while, last decades and that is after we relentlessly bomb the place into to submission, using some horrific munitions. 

For what ever reason, Russia have left their Airforce largely grounded. A view could be as obliterating the country from the air into submission is not an option. More so when he probably believes there is a sizable pro-Russian view from within.

And a strand that does worry me, is if the US inch towards 'enforcing' a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That will mean we will, and that changes the situation a lot.

Edited 2 March, 2022 by AlexLaw76

[AlexLaw76]

 

[badgerx16]

Ukraine says that it has 'terminated' a Chechen assasination squad aiming for President Zelenskyy. They say the Russian state security bureau tipped them off about the attempt.

Edited 2 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

10 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Russian law prohibits conscriptrs being sent to conflict zones. Western assessments are that many thousands of conscripts, having been sent to the 'exercises' had their status changed from a 12 month conscription term to a 3 year 'contracted' regular soldier, without warning or right to challenge.

According to Putin this is not a conflict zone. 

[badgerx16]

5 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

According to Putin this is not a conflict zone. 

Putin is living in a parallel universe, one contained entirely within his head. His generals know the truth, yet just sit there and back his narative.

Edited 2 March, 2022 by badgerx16