Russia

[egg]

13 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

Not sure why you’d think that.

The point is that the strength or otherwise of the rouble won't make a blind bit of difference to what's happening on the ground. How do you see it as relevant? 

[Jimmy_D]

7 minutes ago, egg said:

The point is that the strength or otherwise of the rouble won't make a blind bit of difference to what's happening on the ground. How do you see it as relevant? 

Where do you think the term ‘war chest’ comes from? Every war in history has been waged based on each side’s ability to pay for it according to the economy of the time.

Russia have been absolutely torching their economy to pay for this war, and despite what they would like everyone to believe, their resources aren’t bottomless.

[aintforever]

4 hours ago, egg said:

The point is that the strength or otherwise of the rouble won't make a blind bit of difference to what's happening on the ground. How do you see it as relevant? 

Of course it’s relevant. Wars need to be paid for and surely there is a limit to the price Russia is willing to pay for some land in Ukraine.

From what I’ve read many in the West think what Russia is doing is not sustainable in the medium-long term, that’s probably why weapons have been drip fed through.

[egg]

5 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

Where do you think the term ‘war chest’ comes from? Every war in history has been waged based on each side’s ability to pay for it according to the economy of the time.

Russia have been absolutely torching their economy to pay for this war, and despite what they would like everyone to believe, their resources aren’t bottomless.

Of course wars have to be funded, but russia are a largely self sufficient communist state, they're not buying weapons in at inflated costs like we have to. They also have oil and gas as currency as currency, and in reality, the restrictions aren't a restriction.

You've had this belief throughout that they can't carry on, are running out of weapons, men, etc. I know you want that to be true, but it's just not the case - they've fired more missiles at Ukraine since this began than the collective European NATO countries have in their arsenal. They've developed hypersonic missiles - we're having a think about that, and may get around to it by 2030. They've launched an intermediate missile this week that the NATO states probably couldn't take out of the sky.

A drop in the rouble will not halt this. Have a look how the rouble is doing against the currency of Russian trading partners, in reality it's not doing much if any worse than the pound has against the dollar over the last 3 months. 

[Lighthouse]

14 minutes ago, egg said:

Of course wars have to be funded, but russia are a largely self sufficient communist state, they're not buying weapons in at inflated costs like we have to. They also have oil and gas as currency as currency, and in reality, the restrictions aren't a restriction.

You've had this belief throughout that they can't carry on, are running out of weapons, men, etc. I know you want that to be true, but it's just not the case - they've fired more missiles at Ukraine since this began than the collective European NATO countries have in their arsenal. They've developed hypersonic missiles - we're having a think about that, and may get around to it by 2030. They've launched an intermediate missile this week that the NATO states probably couldn't take out of the sky.

A drop in the rouble will not halt this. Have a look how the rouble is doing against the currency of Russian trading partners, in reality it's not doing much if any worse than the pound has against the dollar over the last 3 months. 

What on Earth...

[egg]

24 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

What on Earth...

What on earth makes you disagree that Russia are probably the most self sufficient country on earth? Regardless, a drop in the Rouble will not stop their war machine. 

[Colinjb]

2 minutes ago, egg said:

What on earth makes you disagree that Russia are probably the most self sufficient country on earth? Regardless, a drop in the Rouble will not stop their war machine. 

'Communist.'

[Jimmy_D]

1 hour ago, egg said:

Of course wars have to be funded, but russia are a largely self sufficient communist state, they're not buying weapons in at inflated costs like we have to. They also have oil and gas as currency as currency, and in reality, the restrictions aren't a restriction.

You've had this belief throughout that they can't carry on, are running out of weapons, men, etc. I know you want that to be true, but it's just not the case - they've fired more missiles at Ukraine since this began than the collective European NATO countries have in their arsenal. They've developed hypersonic missiles - we're having a think about that, and may get around to it by 2030. They've launched an intermediate missile this week that the NATO states probably couldn't take out of the sky.

A drop in the rouble will not halt this. Have a look how the rouble is doing against the currency of Russian trading partners, in reality it's not doing much if any worse than the pound has against the dollar over the last 3 months. 

Plummeting currency value combined with incredibly high inflation and interest rates, as well as withdrawal restrictions banks are imposing, would suggest they’re not self sufficient at all. Food prices in Russia are going up and that’s only accelerating.

The state of the road network and the size of Russia means they’re massively reliant on the rail network, but railway maintenance is one of the things that’s suffered most under sanctions and Russia’s war economy. Take a look at the volume of rail cargo year-on-year in Russia, that’s just one of the symptoms of Russia’s economy degrading, and that degradation having very real effects.

[buctootim]

2 hours ago, egg said:

Of course wars have to be funded, but russia are a largely self sufficient communist state,

That's the most bizarre statement I've read here for ages - against stiff competition. You know its not 1967 anymore right?  

[egg]

1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

Plummeting currency value combined with incredibly high inflation and interest rates, as well as withdrawal restrictions banks are imposing, would suggest they’re not self sufficient at all. Food prices in Russia are going up and that’s only accelerating.

The state of the road network and the size of Russia means they’re massively reliant on the rail network, but railway maintenance is one of the things that’s suffered most under sanctions and Russia’s war economy. Take a look at the volume of rail cargo year-on-year in Russia, that’s just one of the symptoms of Russia’s economy degrading, and that degradation having very real effects.

You've gone off at a massive tangent and miss the point completely. Russia have, despite all your predictions, maintained their war effort and expanded their arsenal. They've had more power at their disposal than Ukraine despite aid from NATO. Do you genuinely believe that a dip in the rouble will blunt them? Really? 

[Jimmy_D]

18 minutes ago, egg said:

You've gone off at a massive tangent and miss the point completely. Russia have, despite all your predictions, maintained their war effort and expanded their arsenal. They've had more power at their disposal than Ukraine despite aid from NATO. Do you genuinely believe that a dip in the rouble will blunt them? Really? 

So you’re claiming that Russia’s capabilities haven’t been degraded at all since the start of the war then?

Also care to point at any predictions in particular? Go on, go and find a quote.