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whelk

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Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales  

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  1. 1. Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

push where, do you think?

Putin and his cronies are rebuilding the Russian Empire. Even if they shy away from the former territories of Finland and the Baltics, due to NATO, if they are given legitimate ownership of the occupied Ukrainian lands, they might well try for the rest. It is unlikely that Ukraine would be permitted to join NATO whilst there is a frozen conflict.

Alternatively, they could look to regain the Caucasus, or renounce the independence of the central Asian 'Stans.

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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Alternatively, settling with Russia actually gaining something will only encourage them to push further a few years down the line.

Not necessarily gaining. It depends how you view Crimea to be honest. I could see an argument for that staying with Russia. I think a state like Russia is always likely to do things like invade and interfere in countries that it still believes to be part of their empire. I'm not sure we will be able to stop that sadly, it's just a case of containment and the best of a bunch of shitty options. Bit like Israel in that respect.

Maybe some sort of ceasefire where we agree not to allow Ukraine to join NATO and maybe we have to wait till Putin gets removed and where there are severe consequences for Russia if they try something similar in the future. 

Edited by hypochondriac
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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
Just now, badgerx16 said:

Putin and his cronies are rebuilding the Russian Empire. Even if they shy away from the former territories of Finland and the Baltics, due to NATO, if they are given legitimate ownership of the occupied Ukrainian lands, they might well try for the rest. It is unlikely that Ukraine would be permitted to join NATO whilst there is a frozen conflict.

Alternatively, they could look to regain the Caucasus, or renounce the independence of the central Asian 'Stans.

So, other than Ukraine, no where of interest to anyone really?

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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
Just now, badgerx16 said:

Areas of very strong interest to those that live there. But then again, the 'Stans, and parts of the Caucasus, are Muslim.

If Russia want to move into some hell hole in the near/middle east that used to be part of the Soviet Union, good luck to them. 

 

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Not necessarily gaining. It depends how you view Crimea to be honest. I could see an argument for that staying with Russia. I think a state like Russia is always likely to do things like invade and interfere in countries that it still believes to be part of their empire. I'm not sure we will be able to stop that sadly, it's just a case of containment and the best of a bunch of shitty options. Bit like Israel in that respect.

Maybe some sort of ceasefire where we agree not to allow Ukraine to join NATO and maybe we have to wait till Putin gets removed and where there are severe consequences for Russia if they try something similar in the future. 

The UK  US, and Russia garuanteed Ukraine's security when it gave up it's nuclear weapons.

That went well.

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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

The UK  US, and Russia garuanteed Ukraine's security when it gave up it's nuclear weapons.

That went well.

Anyone can point out potential issues in any proposed solution just like Israel it's fairly intractable. I just don't think crushing Russia is going to be any kind of solution or even the best of a load of bad options given that they aren't going to go away. 

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted

Nobody wants to crush Russia, they can leave any time they like. This is the same old arguments coming round again but essentially the war ends when Russia wants it to, i.e. they leave. There is no other solution to this, certainly not through negotiation. Russia took Crimea and Donbass nine years ago, it didn't lead to peace, they just came back and tried to take the rest eight years later. Half of their nutcase population think they should retake the Baltics and Poland too, get the old band back together.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hypochondriac said:

They obviously aren't going to concede defeat are they. That would mean certain death for Putin for one. I just think it's worth bearing in mind that imposing such a crushing defeat and then conditions on Germany after WW1 definitely contributed to the strength of feeling that was at least partially responsible for WW2. IMO allowing Russia to save face in some way may be the smart thing to do (which is what I assume Elon Musk is going on about) otherwise we may risk things escalating in a few years of bad feeling and simmering tensions. 

There’s no negotiated settlement that will mean Russia wants Ukraine to continue to exist as an independent entity. The only reason any part of Ukraine is still free is that they fought for it, and Russia aren’t strong enough to force it to submit.

Any kind of settlement would only delay Russia trying to do what it wants to do militarily, would allow them to attempt to recover from the losses Ukraine have inflicted on them, especially if it resulted in sanctions being lifted, and allow them to avoid having to expend more materiel just to hold on to what they have. 

There’s a reason it’s Russian voices and Russian mouthpieces that are calling for negotiation now, Ukraine has the stronger conventional military, with the balance of power continuing to tilt Ukraine’s way. Ukraine’s best (only?) chance of long term security is keep going and eventually make it impossible for Russia to continue.

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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

There’s no negotiated settlement that will mean Russia wants Ukraine to continue to exist as an independent entity. The only reason any part of Ukraine is still free is that they fought for it, and Russia aren’t strong enough to force it to submit.

Any kind of settlement would only delay Russia trying to do what it wants to do militarily, would allow them to attempt to recover from the losses Ukraine have inflicted on them, especially if it resulted in sanctions being lifted, and allow them to avoid having to expend more materiel just to hold on to what they have. 

There’s a reason it’s Russian voices and Russian mouthpieces that are calling for negotiation now, Ukraine has the stronger conventional military, with the balance of power continuing to tilt Ukraine’s way. Ukraine’s best (only?) chance of long term security is keep going and eventually make it impossible for Russia to continue.

Ukraines success in maintaining the fight against Russian defensive lines are almost (or entirely) linked to support from the US. Such support is coming under increasing scrutiny, with commitments going through the political boxing ring, as they enter an election year. Can't really count on Europe/EU to provide the required bulk and capability....just to maintain the fight against what Russia has set up as a defensive line.

Should Ukraine fail to break through the Russian lines, we can almost guarantee to hear the louder calls for a "settlement", whether we like it or not.

As said, Ukraine (with Russia) have taken an almighty pounding, but the Russian side have, by comparison, infinite resources to chuck at the meat grinder. That's not counting the vast majority of the Russian Navy or any of their Strategic Forces.

Of course, who knows what the new year will bring, as the weather sets in and slows the fighting down for xmas. But if Ukraine continues with a war of attrition style - after all, they are more alike Russians than their western allies - the will need a major uplift in kit and capability (from the US), coupled with a reversal in policy or significant change at the very top in Russia, to drive them out.

 

 

Edited by AlexLaw76
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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

There’s no negotiated settlement that will mean Russia wants Ukraine to continue to exist as an independent entity. The only reason any part of Ukraine is still free is that they fought for it, and Russia aren’t strong enough to force it to submit.

Any kind of settlement would only delay Russia trying to do what it wants to do militarily, would allow them to attempt to recover from the losses Ukraine have inflicted on them, especially if it resulted in sanctions being lifted, and allow them to avoid having to expend more materiel just to hold on to what they have. 

There’s a reason it’s Russian voices and Russian mouthpieces that are calling for negotiation now, Ukraine has the stronger conventional military, with the balance of power continuing to tilt Ukraine’s way. Ukraine’s best (only?) chance of long term security is keep going and eventually make it impossible for Russia to continue.

We will see but I reckon that will eventually lead to Russian desperation. I don't want a nuclear power with that mindset. 

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

We will see but I reckon that will eventually lead to Russian desperation. I don't want a nuclear power with that mindset. 

Desperation for what and by who? The Russian high command is 100% geared towards self preservation and staying on the right side of the right people. Nobody is going to start launching nukes westwards.

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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Lighthouse said:

Desperation for what and by who? The Russian high command is 100% geared towards self preservation and staying on the right side of the right people. Nobody is going to start launching nukes westwards.

Historically, populations that have had their pride badly damaged and then continuing to be impoverished by sanctions and punishment after losing a war do not generally become less radical and in fact support for even more radical elements who want to demonstrate the might of Russia is likely to increase. That's the fear that longer term this will lead to something worse than we have now. 

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Jonnyboy

Jonnyboy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hypochondriac said:

Historically, populations that have had their pride badly damaged and then continuing to be impoverished by sanctions and punishment after losing a war do not generally become less radical and in fact support for even more radical elements who want to demonstrate the might of Russia is likely to increase. That's the fear that longer term this will lead to something worse than we have now. 

The certainly seems to be the way the Kiev regime is heading. Thank fuck the US hasn't given Zelensky any nukes (yet).

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skintsaint

skintsaint

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

They have lost in excess of 120-150k troops, and whilst Russia has probably lost as many (or more), they have, in comparison, an infinite supply to the meat grinder. 

Theres were 24m males of fighting age in Ukraine according to 2022 stats. Even if you only take a third of that number they have a long way to go too for the grinder.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted

The Kremlin has felt the need to deny the latest rumours about Putin being dead. Rumours of his death aren’t exactly unusual, but denials by the Kremlin are a lot less common, especially ones not delivered by Putin himself.

Meanwhile a delegation from Hamas in Russia wasn’t allowed to meet Putin.

Neither of those are anywhere near confirmation of course, but something is telling me not to immediately dismiss this one. Not just yet at least. He’s obviously not in perfect health and eventually it’ll actually turn out to be accurate.

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted

Oh, how quickly they forget!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-67284270

Quote

Our hearts are with all of the communities and families impacted by this crisis. We abhor violence of any kind and firmly stand against hate speech, and we will always proudly open our doors to everyone.

As long as 'everyone' aren't Russians....

https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/our-stories/article/mcd-exit-russia.html

Quote

CHICAGO, May 16, 2022 – After more than 30 years of operations in the country, McDonald’s Corporation announced it will exit the Russian market and has initiated a process to sell its Russian business. This follows McDonald’s announcement on March 8, 2022, that it had temporarily closed restaurants in Russia and paused operations in the market.

The humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, and the precipitating unpredictable operating environment, have led McDonald’s to conclude that continued ownership of the business in Russia is no longer tenable, nor is it consistent with McDonald’s values.

 

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)

A Wagner colonel has turned himself in to the ICC.......

https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/waarom-verklaring-van-voormalig-wagner-officier-belangrijk-is-essentieel-om-getuigen-van-binnenuit-te-hebben/

 

Translation;

According to experts, the fact that Russian ex-officer Igor Salikov wants to testify at the International Criminal Court about Russian war crimes in Ukraine is important for legal investigations: "Witnesses from the inside can be important for a criminal case." Salikov arrived in the Netherlands today and wants to report to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. It is the first time that a senior (ex) officer from Russia has reported. These types of 'witnesses from the inside' are important for the investigation of war crimes, experts emphasize.

Edited by badgerx16
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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

A Wagner colonel has turned himself in to the ICC.......

https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/waarom-verklaring-van-voormalig-wagner-officier-belangrijk-is-essentieel-om-getuigen-van-binnenuit-te-hebben/

 

Translation;

According to experts, the fact that Russian ex-officer Igor Salikov wants to testify at the International Criminal Court about Russian war crimes in Ukraine is important for legal investigations: "Witnesses from the inside can be important for a criminal case." Salikov arrived in the Netherlands today and wants to report to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. It is the first time that a senior (ex) officer from Russia has reported. These types of 'witnesses from the inside' are important for the investigation of war crimes, experts emphasize.

Just keep him away from any high windows.

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Jeremy Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn

Posted
Posted
On 14/12/2023 at 18:57, Jimmy_D said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67722252

Accession talks to join the EU beginning for Ukraine (and Moldova).

Orban has been one of the biggest blocks to that but apparently left the room while the decision happened.

What would this mean for the conflict?  If Ukraine was part of the EU then Russia would be at war with the EU?

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

What would this mean for the conflict?  If Ukraine was part of the EU then Russia would be at war with the EU?

The EU has clauses similar to NATO’s Article 5 regarding mutual defence.

For Ukraine to join while this war is still ongoing those would have to be addressed.

Four possibilities I can think of;

The EU in effect agrees to declare war to allow Ukraine to join. Extremely unlikely.

The EU allows Ukraine to join with agreements to intervene militarily after a set date if Russia haven’t withdrawn.

The EU suspends the mutual defence clauses for the war with Russia for Ukraine to join, with indefinite future plans on reinstating them.

The EU provisionally allows Ukraine to join, but only once the war is resolved.

There could also be some sort of compromise which involves some mix of all or some of the above applying to different member states.

It’s likely though, that any ascension would be indefinitely delayed by the ongoing war. More important at the moment is the message it sends to Russia that Ukraine won’t be abandoned by the EU.

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pingpong

pingpong

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Of the 29 people who have applied to be candidates in the Russian Presidential election, only one has so far been accepted to be put on the ballot. Guess who that might be.

Farage? He's the winningest winner I know of, so probably him?

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inspectorfrost

inspectorfrost

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 08/12/2023 at 16:25, Lighthouse said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/67663582
 

Because Russians are obviously going to pretend that all their athletes are suddenly ‘neutral’.

Think the IOC have acknowledged that banning the Russian/Belarussian athletes based on their nationality would violate the Olympic charter.

If they banned every country who'd invaded a different country where the indiscriminate killing of civilians followed the 'individual neutral athletes' would have the largest contingent of athletes by a distance

On 25/10/2023 at 16:06, Lighthouse said:

Nobody wants to crush Russia, they can leave any time they like. This is the same old arguments coming round again but essentially the war ends when Russia wants it to, i.e. they leave. There is no other solution to this, certainly not through negotiation. Russia took Crimea and Donbass nine years ago, it didn't lead to peace, they just came back and tried to take the rest eight years later. Half of their nutcase population think they should retake the Baltics and Poland too, get the old band back together.

 

When the invasion started tens of thousands of Russians openly protested against the war knowing full well they'd likely be thrown into jail by the end of that day. It was the biggest rebellion against the Russian authorities for a long time. Sadly Zelensky never used it to his advantage.

It was only 20 years ago when a lot of our population supported invading Iraq because they believed Saddam Hussein could deploy WMDs in 45 minutes.

Less "nutcase population" and more "Different governments, but the lies stay the same."

Edited by inspectorfrost
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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted

New military assistance package announced by the UK today, along with a signing a Security Co-Operation agreement

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65a14a6ae96df50014f845d2/UK-Ukraine_Agreement_on_Security_Co-operation.pdf

Looks like it’s partly building a foundation to assist Ukraine eventually joining NATO, similar to the ones signed with Sweden and Finland, and partly an escalation towards continued Russian aggression being more likely to trigger a UK military response in Ukraine.

While direct military intervention by the UK still doesn’t seem immediately likely, and it’s not clear exactly what would be enough to trigger a response (likely intentionally so), it’s certainly not an insignificant development.

In the other direction, no other country in the world has as much experience as Ukraine in both Soviet and NATO materiel, especially in making them interoperable, as well as drone warfare. That experience will likely be invaluable to the UK’s military going forward.

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Baird of the land

Baird of the land

Posted
Posted

Find this nonsense about a 'peace formula' truly comical. 

"Ukraine pushed ahead with its peace formula to end nearly two years of war with Russia with a meeting of national security advisers from around the world in Davos on Sunday. Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, posted photos of the meeting’s opening and hailed a “good sign” that the number of participants in a string of conferences on Zelenskiy’s peace formula was growing; nearly half from Europe, as well as 18 from Asia and 12 from Africa. “Countries from the global south are increasingly getting involved in our work. It shows understanding that this European conflict is in fact a challenge for all humanity,”(Guardian)

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Baird of the land said:

Find this nonsense about a 'peace formula' truly comical. 

"Ukraine pushed ahead with its peace formula to end nearly two years of war with Russia with a meeting of national security advisers from around the world in Davos on Sunday. Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, posted photos of the meeting’s opening and hailed a “good sign” that the number of participants in a string of conferences on Zelenskiy’s peace formula was growing; nearly half from Europe, as well as 18 from Asia and 12 from Africa. “Countries from the global south are increasingly getting involved in our work. It shows understanding that this European conflict is in fact a challenge for all humanity,”(Guardian)

What’s nonsense about it? It’s just the set of conditions that Ukraine think will most likely result in long term security for Ukraine, in light of how aggressive and untrustworthy Russia have been.

It’s working too, more and more countries are getting on board with it.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted

Ukraine claiming to have shot down a Russian A-50. This would mark the first time in history an AEW&C aircraft has been shot down.

The number of these is extremely limited, especially in light of the issues with maintenance Russia likely have, and experienced crew for them even more limited.

Ukraine having the capability to shoot them down is unbelievably significant.

It’s unlikely but possible that despite generally being crewed by the most experienced pilots and crew available, one strayed into range of something that it should never have been in range of. It’s also extremely unlikely, but possible it was friendly fire by a Russian AA system.

If it wasn’t that, and Ukraine have gained a repeatable capability to shoot them down, then a combination of that kind of AA capabilty, Russia losing AEW&C capability, Ukraine repeatedly being able to target Russian AA systems in recent weeks, and Ukraine gaining F16s in the next few months, that’s what the beginning of Ukraine gaining air superiority looks like.

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Baird of the land

Baird of the land

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

What’s nonsense about it? It’s just the set of conditions that Ukraine think will most likely result in long term security for Ukraine, in light of how aggressive and untrustworthy Russia have been.

It’s working too, more and more countries are getting on board with it.

Of course it is utter nonsense, unless you get Russia or its allies(china/Iran etc) to sign up, which there's zero chance of ever happening.

Working in what way, if only countries already supportive of Ukraine sign up.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

Of course it is utter nonsense, unless you get Russia or its allies(china/Iran etc) to sign up, which there's zero chance of ever happening.

Working in what way, if only countries already supportive of Ukraine sign up.

Do you see Russia attacking NATO countries?

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

do you?

Vanishingly unlikely in the short to medium term.

I can see there being a very very small possibility there could be some crossover between Ukraine joining at some point in the future, and Russia testing how strong their membership is with some sort of deniable attack.

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