Russia

[whelk]

3 hours ago, egg said:

Yep. This thread is a classic case of a few posters believing the information that they want to believe, and refusing to accept stuff that they don't. 

And on the other side others desperate for Russia to get the upper hand. Sad indeed if they want their ‘told you so’ moment over an evil cunt getting beaten.

[egg]

21 minutes ago, whelk said:

And on the other side others desperate for Russia to get the upper hand. Sad indeed if they want their ‘told you so’ moment over an evil cunt getting beaten.

I'm not sure anyone outside Russia or Belarus think that way mate. I just find it surprising that people convince themselves of what they want to believe. If you follow some foreign media outlets, including msm like CNN, or even Al Jazeera (they have no skin in the game in this dispute), you get a more open picture.

I'd love Ukraine to be pushing Russia back and reclaiming their land, but they're struggling. This incursion into Russia could be a masterstroke, or we could see jets and missiles taking loads of Ukrainians and their gear out. Let's see what happens. 

[egg]

2 hours ago, skintsaint said:

10% included casualties - which for an offensive of this scale isn't too excessive for Ukraine to not have expected.

True. What we don't want to see is the Ukrainians take a hammering here (and lose more vital gear) and this backfire. 

[badgerx16]

Presumably the Ukrainians understand what they are doing, why they are doing it, and what they hope to acheive.

[Lighthouse]

43 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Presumably the Ukrainians understand what they are doing, why they are doing it, and what they hope to achieve.

Best guess, they’re using their strengths (better equipment, training and mobility) to mount lightning raids into Russian territory, capturing small settlements in the border Oblasts. This will boost morale in Ukraine, showing that they can fight back, as well as causing embarrassment and unrest in Russia. Putin will not be able to project his tough military image whilst part of Russia is under occupation for the first time since 1943 and will be forced to drag units away from where Russia is strongest, I.E. the slow moving, artillery dominated meat grinder in Donbas. He’ll be forced to keep a sizeable number of troops stationed across the length of the border from now on but they’ll be spread too thin to mount a meaningful offensive into Ukraine, with so many resources being tied up in the East.

[Jimmy_D]

2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Best guess, they’re using their strengths (better equipment, training and mobility) to mount lightning raids into Russian territory, capturing small settlements in the border Oblasts. This will boost morale in Ukraine, showing that they can fight back, as well as causing embarrassment and unrest in Russia. Putin will not be able to project his tough military image whilst part of Russia is under occupation for the first time since 1943 and will be forced to drag units away from where Russia is strongest, I.E. the slow moving, artillery dominated meat grinder in Donbas. He’ll be forced to keep a sizeable number of troops stationed across the length of the border from now on but they’ll be spread too thin to mount a meaningful offensive into Ukraine, with so many resources being tied up in the East.

Another possible aspect is that overnight, this caused all the calls from Russian shills for the conflict to be frozen according to ‘the reality on the ground’ to dry up completely.

Reports seem to suggest Ukraine has met minimal resistance so far, mostly untrained conscripts that have surrendered en masse, which if nothing else should allow Ukraine to exchange to get some PoWs back.

[Lighthouse]

At this point, they should just swap countries and be done with all this nonsense.

[Saint in Paradise]

 

[Gloucester Saint]

Iran, until it can finally shake off the cack hand of the Revolutionary Guard, truly is an armpit of a country. North Korea and Russia are equally grubby bedfellows

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c75n2wnkp1vo

[whelk]

Funny these Russian cunts threatening if use long range missiles in Russia that means they are at war with NATO. Yeah a war that you would get hammered ya bald cunt

[Lighthouse]

4 minutes ago, whelk said:

Funny these Russian cunts threatening if use long range missiles in Russia that means they are at war with NATO. Yeah a war that you would get hammered ya bald cunt

It’s all bluster and rhetoric. Rule one when dealing with Russia; do exactly what Putin strongly warns you against. They really don’t have many cards to play here when it comes to NATO, everyone knows they’re bluffing. Politicians are just wary of saying it out loud because it’ll whip up hysteria and panic amongst thick people who think they might actually launch nukes.

[Gloucester Saint]

20 minutes ago, whelk said:

Funny these Russian cunts threatening if use long range missiles in Russia that means they are at war with NATO. Yeah a war that you would get hammered ya bald cunt

Mike Clarke normally on the money. I reckon Putin will end up with the Donbas, which is Russian speaking more or less, and Crimea which is less palatable to Ukraine. I’d let him have Donbas, his minions have destroyed it completely anyway and they can’t afford to rebuild it with their shot away, sanctions-riddled economy. The interference in US politics isn’t working this time either. Xi and Modi would kick his arse also even if he used tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, an arse Xi owns. Get Ukraine into NATO asap, and shore up Georgia and Moldova which Putin is eyeing.

 

Edited 13 September, 2024 by Gloucester Saint

[egg]

8 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s all bluster and rhetoric. Rule one when dealing with Russia; do exactly what Putin strongly warns you against. They really don’t have many cards to play here when it comes to NATO, everyone knows they’re bluffing. Politicians are just wary of saying it out loud because it’ll whip up hysteria and panic amongst thick people who think they might actually launch nukes.

The weird thing about Putin's latest sabre rattling was that the public and Putin knew that there was to be a discussion about using Storm Shadows. Keep that stuff quiet. 

[badgerx16]

44 minutes ago, egg said:

The weird thing about Putin's latest sabre rattling was that the public and Putin knew that there was to be a discussion about using Storm Shadows. Keep that stuff quiet. 

But we know, because Peskov tells us, that every Storm Shadow is destroyed before it can be launched, so they have nothing to worry about.

[egg]

4 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

But we know, because Peskov tells us, that every Storm Shadow is destroyed before it can be launched, so they have nothing to worry about.

Ha!! Still bloody daft leaking that. Keep quiet and make a decision. That way Russia and Ukraine are none the wiser if Biden tells us to pipe down.  

[whelk]

More good news.

Ukraine drone attack in Russia sparks fire

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30lp1qq6pzo

 

[Jimmy_D]

3 hours ago, whelk said:

More good news.

Ukraine drone attack in Russia sparks fire

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30lp1qq6pzo

 

A weapons store only built in 2018, supposedly to a standard that could withstand nuclear weapons, one of the biggest they had. Russia are now claiming that it wasn’t enough to protect the stored munitions (including ballistic missiles) from debris from shot down drones(!)

Unconfirmed, but reports suggesting that Russia were using it to store and refurbish expired missiles, and that correct storage protocols weren’t being followed.

In any case, it sounds counterintuitive, but weapon stores are generally extremely difficult to cause to completely go up like that (assuming they’ve been correctly designed, built, and used.) It wouldn’t be a surprise though, if corners have been cut and corruption has affected every stage of that.

[buctootim]

2 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

A weapons store only built in 2018, supposedly to a standard that could withstand nuclear weapons, one of the biggest they had. Russia are now claiming that it wasn’t enough to protect the stored munitions (including ballistic missiles) from debris from shot down drones(!)

Unconfirmed, but reports suggesting that Russia were using it to store and refurbish expired missiles, and that correct storage protocols weren’t being followed.

In any case, it sounds counterintuitive, but weapon stores are generally extremely difficult to cause to completely go up like that (assuming they’ve been correctly designed, built, and used.) It wouldn’t be a surprise though, if corners have been cut and corruption has affected every stage of that.

If you look at it on google maps the design looks fine - maybe 100 separate buildings spaced out on a large site about 4km by 1km.  Yet it looks like most of them have gone up. Either they were built of cardboard or somebody left all the doors open 

 

[badgerx16]

Ukraine finally starting to hit Russia where it will really hurt - 2 distilleries have been blown up by Ukrainian drones.

[badgerx16]

It has been reported that 10 thousand North Korean troops have been sent to assist Russia's war in Ukraine. It isn't clear whether they will be actively involved on the front line, but is has also been reported that a Ukrainian strike on a Russian depot killed several DPRK engineering officers.

[Gloucester Saint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

It has been reported that 10 thousand North Korean troops have been sent to assist Russia's war in Ukraine. It isn't clear whether they will be actively involved on the front line, but is has also been reported that a Ukrainian strike on a Russian depot killed several DPRK engineering officers.

Potential opportunity to defect - 18 already did https://kyivindependent.com/18-north-korean-soldiers-already-deserted-positions-by-ukraines-border-intelligence-sources-tell-suspilne/

[buctootim]

16 hours ago, Gloucester Saint said:

Potential opportunity to defect - 18 already did https://kyivindependent.com/18-north-korean-soldiers-already-deserted-positions-by-ukraines-border-intelligence-sources-tell-suspilne/

If hundreds or thousands of them defect it could well have a domino effect on Russian troops. This just as likely to be a catalyst for defeat as it is a bolster to the front line 

[skintsaint]

So is this escalation?

This special military operation really is going well.

Edited 18 October, 2024 by skintsaint

[Sarnia Cherie]

On 15/10/2024 at 18:56, badgerx16 said:

It has been reported that 10 thousand North Korean troops have been sent to assist Russia's war in Ukraine. It isn't clear whether they will be actively involved on the front line, but is has also been reported that a Ukrainian strike on a Russian depot killed several DPRK engineering officers.

Cannon fodder I suppose. Putin has lost a lot more military personnel than he ever envisaged so he has turned to Kim Jung-Un. That's a worrying friendship.

[Farmer Saint]

8 hours ago, Sarnia Cherie said:

Cannon fodder I suppose. Putin has lost a lot more military personnel than he ever envisaged so he has turned to Kim Jung-Un. That's a worrying friendship.

Reminds me of "Operation Get behind the Darkies".

 

 

Edited 19 October, 2024 by Farmer Saint

[badgerx16]

[Baird of the land]

Very curious to see how Trump election impacts the war.

[Lighthouse]

2 hours ago, Baird of the land said:

Very curious to see how Trump election impacts the war.

The short answer being that Ukraine will suffer from a lack of ongoing US military support and will have to rely on the smaller provisions of other NATO countries. Hopefully Russia has already burned through too much manpower and hardware to mount a meaningful, sustained offensive.

[Gloucester Saint]

39 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

The short answer being that Ukraine will suffer from a lack of ongoing US military support and will have to rely on the smaller provisions of other NATO countries. Hopefully Russia has already burned through too much manpower and hardware to mount a meaningful, sustained offensive.

Pretty much this. Putin will be loving this as he was pretty much screwed although I suspect Trump will tell him to agree a settlement as he has more power in their relationship than last time. Hopefully by the time Russia can re-arm to think about a Baltic invasion Putin will be deceased. 

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

The short answer being that Ukraine will suffer from a lack of ongoing US military support and will have to rely on the smaller provisions of other NATO countries. Hopefully Russia has already burned through too much manpower and hardware to mount a meaningful, sustained offensive.

Plenty of DPRK meat available.

[Lighthouse]

25 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Plenty of DPRK meat available.

Plenty of caveats to that though, namely how many troops Kim is prepared to sacrifice for his somewhat tenuous friendship with Mad Vlad. Obviously Kim doesn't give a crap about the men themselves but his dynasty does depend on a cast iron projection of absolute power back home. He wont want to see that corroded by a messy and expensive conflict, thousands of miles from his own borders.

The other main issue is that his military could be something of a paper tiger. DPRK haven't had a proper war in living memory (unless you're one of the few citizens to make it into their eighties, despite chronic malnutrition and inadequate healthcare). Despite all their missile tests, their conventional army is likely to be severely malnourished, poorly equipped, very poorly motivated, ravaged by rampant corruption and organised by terrified yes-men. How much of a fight they put up against Ukrainians fighting for their own existence remains to be seen.

[skintsaint]

41 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Plenty of DPRK meat available.

The initial deployment of DPRK guys will last about 12 days going by Russia losing 1k wounded or dead men per day.

[skintsaint]

[egg]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0mzgv4x901o

Ukraine still losing ground, and that's with US support. Zelensky warming up his people up his people for the inevitable diplomatic solution, and concessions. Sad situation. 

[aintforever]

From what I’ve been reading there is plenty of support in Ukraine for just ending the war even if it means conceding territory to Russia. There is a feeling that the west is just drip feeding enough arms through to keep Russia at bay without giving them what’s needed to win it (if that’s possible?).

Just hope Ukraine end up with, if not full membership, some sort of security guarantee from NATO going forward. If Trump just caves in to Putin and basically hands him a victory it’s not going to be great for Europe.

 

[AlexLaw76]

10 minutes ago, aintforever said:

From what I’ve been reading there is plenty of support in Ukraine for just ending the war even if it means conceding territory to Russia. There is a feeling that the west is just drip feeding enough arms through to keep Russia at bay without giving them what’s needed to win it (if that’s possible?).

Just hope Ukraine end up with, if not full membership, some sort of security guarantee from NATO going forward. If Trump just caves in to Putin and basically hands him a victory it’s not going to be great for Europe.

 

Ukraine is not getting membership to NATO anytime soon, if ever.

amazed anything thinks this is the case (or hope it can be)

All the west is doing is help Ukraine lose very slowly. That is it, it it is taking hundreds of billions of $$$ to achieve. I can see why the US tax payer has had enough 

Edited 16 November, 2024 by AlexLaw76

[aintforever]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Ukraine is not getting membership to NATO anytime soon, if ever.

amazed anything thinks this is the case.

All the west is doing is help Ukraine lose very slowly. That is it, it it is taking hundreds of billions of $$$ to achieve. I can see why the US tax payer has had enough 

Agree that membership soon is unlikely but without any sort of guarantee from NATO all stopping the war now would do is give Russia time to prepare for their next invasion. Putin will know that NATO are scared to fight so will basically be given a green light to carry on as he wants.

[aintforever]

This from Reddit gives a pretty grim outlook of the current situation (who knows how accurate it is):

Our esteemed friend Michael Koffman recently returned from Ukraine and was invited in another War on the Rocks podcast. A lot of what he discussed actually really surprised me, but I warn you from now, his analysis is almost always on the negative side. 

The main points were:

• Neither Russia nor Ukraine are able to sustain the war in the long term. It's a matter of when, and not if, negotiations begins. Trumps precidency only shortens the time-frame. 

• The battlefield situation has significantly deteriorated for Ukraine. Back in the summer, it seemed that the worst was over, Ukraine could hold back the Russian offensive, exhaust the Russian army and begin reconsituting by the winter. Instead, the Ukrainians are pretty much in the same situation as in the summer; outstretched and exhausted. 

• There is a non-insignificant chance of a genuine local collapse of Ukrainian defensive lines.

• Ukraine's situation has largely to do with political decisions in Kyiv. The mobilization wasn't as successful as predicted, most recruits went into support roles instead of infantry, and the rest went into new brigades instead of reinforcing existing ones. 

• The Kursk salient is doomed to fail. The logistics situation for Ukraine is already tense, and the arrival of new Russian reinforcements and NK troops means that inevitably, it will be reclaimed by Russia. 

• North Korean troops showcase Russias strength in mobilizing its allies for help; the inaction of the west showcases the opposite for Ukraine. 

• Trumps precidency isn't seen as catastrophic in Ukraine. In their view, Trump is a gamble where there is a chance the situation improves, while if the Democrats had won, Ukraine would just slowly bleed to death due to restrictions and spoon-fed aid. 

• Ukraine has managed to significantly outscale Russia in both quality and quantity of drones. 

• Ukraine has also bridged the gap in artillery usage, reaching parity in sections such as Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Their territorial loses there are attributed to a clear lack of manpower. 

• There is no world in which bombing Russia with drones will bring Putin to the table. For as long as Ukraine loses ground, Russia has no reason to stop its war. The Russian economy may be heaving, but Russia can sustain the pain for now. 

[Matthew Le God]

Biden has given Ukraine permission to use US missiles to strike in Russian territory. Potentially a very significant escalatation.

[badgerx16]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e7vl01gngo

"Verstka, an independent Russian website, estimates that at least 242 Russians have been killed by soldiers returning from Ukraine. Another 227 have been seriously injured."

[egg]

12 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Biden has given Ukraine permission to use US missiles to strike in Russian territory. Potentially a very significant escalatation.

Donald Trump Jr has a strong view on it.

https://x.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1858242971373637784

I'm not sure what escalation people think we'll see as a result of this. 

[sadoldgit]

A long overdue decision probably prompted by the imminent arrival of Trump to the White House. Ukraine shouldn’t have to defend themselves under such constrictions.

I don’t know if it was Zelensky who said this, but they need to go after the archers, not the arrows.

Edited 18 November, 2024 by sadoldgit

[badgerx16]

Dangerous things, Russian windows;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qd9w9125ko

[Weston Super Saint]

27 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Dangerous things, Russian windows;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qd9w9125ko

Russian 'federal authorities' are investigating is a phrase that fills you with hope that the truth will out.

[badgerx16]

21 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Russian 'federal authorities' are investigating is a phrase that fills you with hope that the truth will out.

Out the window, probably.

[badgerx16]

1000 days and counting.

[Jimmy_D]

On 16/11/2024 at 17:20, aintforever said:

This from Reddit gives a pretty grim outlook of the current situation (who knows how accurate it is):

Our esteemed friend Michael Koffman recently returned from Ukraine and was invited in another War on the Rocks podcast. A lot of what he discussed actually really surprised me, but I warn you from now, his analysis is almost always on the negative side. 

The main points were:

• Neither Russia nor Ukraine are able to sustain the war in the long term. It's a matter of when, and not if, negotiations begins. Trumps precidency only shortens the time-frame. 

• The battlefield situation has significantly deteriorated for Ukraine. Back in the summer, it seemed that the worst was over, Ukraine could hold back the Russian offensive, exhaust the Russian army and begin reconsituting by the winter. Instead, the Ukrainians are pretty much in the same situation as in the summer; outstretched and exhausted. 

• There is a non-insignificant chance of a genuine local collapse of Ukrainian defensive lines.

• Ukraine's situation has largely to do with political decisions in Kyiv. The mobilization wasn't as successful as predicted, most recruits went into support roles instead of infantry, and the rest went into new brigades instead of reinforcing existing ones. 

• The Kursk salient is doomed to fail. The logistics situation for Ukraine is already tense, and the arrival of new Russian reinforcements and NK troops means that inevitably, it will be reclaimed by Russia. 

• North Korean troops showcase Russias strength in mobilizing its allies for help; the inaction of the west showcases the opposite for Ukraine. 

• Trumps precidency isn't seen as catastrophic in Ukraine. In their view, Trump is a gamble where there is a chance the situation improves, while if the Democrats had won, Ukraine would just slowly bleed to death due to restrictions and spoon-fed aid. 

• Ukraine has managed to significantly outscale Russia in both quality and quantity of drones. 

• Ukraine has also bridged the gap in artillery usage, reaching parity in sections such as Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Their territorial loses there are attributed to a clear lack of manpower. 

• There is no world in which bombing Russia with drones will bring Putin to the table. For as long as Ukraine loses ground, Russia has no reason to stop its war. The Russian economy may be heaving, but Russia can sustain the pain for now. 

The main miss in that is just how unbelievably unsustainable Russia's tactics are. North Korean troops buy them roughly a couple of extra weeks of assaults at the level they've been throwing troops away. Russia are still slowly gaining territory, but Ukraine are making them pay for it with an astonishingly massive number of troops.

[sadoldgit]

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-moscow-says-ukraine-has-hit-russia-with-us-long-range-missiles-report-12541713

[skintsaint]

28 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-moscow-says-ukraine-has-hit-russia-with-us-long-range-missiles-report-12541713

Fragments caused a fire? Not from the videos posted online 😅

[buctootim]

On 11/08/2024 at 20:01, egg said:

I'm not sure anyone outside Russia or Belarus think that way mate. I just find it surprising that people convince themselves of what they want to believe. If you follow some foreign media outlets, including msm like CNN, or even Al Jazeera (they have no skin in the game in this dispute), you get a more open picture.

I'd love Ukraine to be pushing Russia back and reclaiming their land, but they're struggling. This incursion into Russia could be a masterstroke, or we could see jets and missiles taking loads of Ukrainians and their gear out. Let's see what happens. 

The strategy for at least the past 18 months has been to extract a high price for every square Km occupied with the intention of gradually bleeding Russia out. That seems to be working. Yes Ukraine is gradually losing land, but not that much and at incredibly high cost to Russia in terms of men and materiel they cant replace at anywhere near the rate they are losing it. Economically Russia is running out of money too. With interest rates at 21% much of Russian industry cant afford their loans and people cant afford their mortgages. Tax base is down expenditure way up. 

The unspoken plan seems to be to get Ukraine to survive until the end of 2025, at which point Russia wont be able to sustain its war effort. It's also important to remember Ukraine hasnt even introduced conscription for 18-28 year olds yet. They have a big chunk of manpower they can call on in reserve

Edited 19 November, 2024 by buctootim