Russia

[Holmes_and_Watson]

Can only hope the Ukrainians can take full advantage of this infighting, as it hopefully heads further into Russia.

[Jimmy_D]

If that’s verified, that’s an extremely significant military asset that Wagner have gained control of.

[Jimmy_D]

Seems very much confirmed by several sources, Prigozhin himself there.

They’re currently in control of the command, control, and logistics hub overseeing and supplying the entire eastern front in Ukraine.

It’s difficult to overstate the effect this will likely have on Russia’s troops in Eastern Ukraine… supply, reinforcement, morale, not to mention likely being needed to repel the coup attempt.

[Weston Super Saint]

  On 23/06/2023 at 19:40, Jimmy_D said:

 

Claims by Russian sources that Wagner troops opened fire on Russian Army troops on the outskirts of Bakhmut.

 

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It appears they have such a surplus of weapons and ammo that they are able to use it on themselves.  Very considerate of them.  Brings new meaning to the word 'special' in SMO.

[AlexLaw76]

  On 24/06/2023 at 05:02, Jimmy_D said:

Seems very much confirmed by several sources, Prigozhin himself there.

They’re currently in control of the command, control, and logistics hub overseeing and supplying the entire eastern front in Ukraine.

It’s difficult to overstate the effect this will likely have on Russia’s troops in Eastern Ukraine… supply, reinforcement, morale, not to mention likely being needed to repel the coup attempt.

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Wagner Group - CDAJFU?

Madness going on

[buctootim]

[egg]

Just caught up with the news. Blimey! Very sad to read that Wagner men have called home to say their goodbyes. 

[Jimmy_D]

  On 24/06/2023 at 06:32, AlexLaw76 said:

Wagner Group - CDAJFU?

Madness going on

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The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. Wagner isn’t exactly an entity that Ukraine would be wanting to make peace with or wanting to ally with, but their recent rhetoric about the separatist regions in 2014 has been far more aligned with Ukraine’s view than Russia’s, and all the time they’re opposing Russia it’s beneficial to Ukraine.

Right now, it’s not entirely clear who’s going to come out on top, for any Russian army troops coming up against Wagner, siding with Wagner or opposing Wagner is more dangerous than doing nothing, and that’s paralysing Russia for the moment. There are early indications Ukraine are already taking advantage of that, with unconfirmed reports of making gains in Bakhmut and other areas of the front. Even if Wagner quickly reestablish supply lines to the Eastern front through Rostov, just their own forces being occupied with their coup, and the resources needed to oppose them are an huge drain on resources that aren’t opposing Ukraine.

How this plays out and how quickly it plays out will decide just how disruptive it is to Russia’s war effort.

One (distant) possibility is that Putin decides to quickly get rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov, appeasing Prigozhin, but that seems unlikely considering Wagner have already destroyed three Russian helicopters overnight, Wagner are already being labelled as traitors, and doing so would make Putin look incredibly weak.

Another is that Russia gets past its current paralysis and uses overwhelming force (or attempts to) to take out Wagner, but that would severely weaken Russia’s army, and the vast majority of Wagner would no longer be a Russian asset. This would likely lead to an extended stalemate with Wagner troops defending Rostov in a similar manner to Bakhmut.

Prigozhin changing his mind and realigning with Russia seems unlikely at this point. Wagner turning on Prigozhin and realigning with Russia similarly seems unlikely at this point.

Wagner succeeding with the coup, taking control of the military, would similarly likely incur severe losses for both Russian forces and Wagner, even if there were widespread bloodless surrender and defection, it would also make Putin look even weaker. Prigozhin being in charge of Russia’s military, however, would be unpredictable. Despite recent rhetoric that Putin was deceived into invading Ukraine based on lies about Ukraine attacking the separatist regions, Prigozhin being in charge of the Russian Armed forces would likely be more effective than their current leadership. Wagner being in charge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal would also be unpredictable.

All in all, it doesn’t seem like there are any good options for Putin here.

[buctootim]

 

Wait till you see the Bombe Surprise I cooked up for you! 

[badgerx16]

Do casualties from the Wagner march get added to the daily updates on Russian losses ?

[Jimmy_D]

  On 24/06/2023 at 07:59, badgerx16 said:

Do casualties from the Wagner march get added to the daily updates on Russian losses ?

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No, that’s just losses inflicted by Ukraine, it doesn’t include friendly fire incidents or accidents either.

[Lighthouse]

  On 24/06/2023 at 07:34, egg said:

Just caught up with the news. Blimey! Very sad to read that Wagner men have called home to say their goodbyes. 

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Which is more than the women they raped and murdered ever got chance to do. No tears from me, opposed to Putin or not they’re still ruthless thugs.

[whelk]

  On 24/06/2023 at 07:34, egg said:

Just caught up with the news. Blimey! Very sad to read that Wagner men have called home to say their goodbyes. 

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Are you being serious?

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

  On 24/06/2023 at 07:47, Jimmy_D said:

The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. Wagner isn’t exactly an entity that Ukraine would be wanting to make peace with or wanting to ally with, but their recent rhetoric about the separatist regions in 2014 has been far more aligned with Ukraine’s view than Russia’s, and all the time they’re opposing Russia it’s beneficial to Ukraine.

Right now, it’s not entirely clear who’s going to come out on top, for any Russian army troops coming up against Wagner, siding with Wagner or opposing Wagner is more dangerous than doing nothing, and that’s paralysing Russia for the moment. There are early indications Ukraine are already taking advantage of that, with unconfirmed reports of making gains in Bakhmut and other areas of the front. Even if Wagner quickly reestablish supply lines to the Eastern front through Rostov, just their own forces being occupied with their coup, and the resources needed to oppose them are an huge drain on resources that aren’t opposing Ukraine.

How this plays out and how quickly it plays out will decide just how disruptive it is to Russia’s war effort.

One (distant) possibility is that Putin decides to quickly get rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov, appeasing Prigozhin, but that seems unlikely considering Wagner have already destroyed three Russian helicopters overnight, Wagner are already being labelled as traitors, and doing so would make Putin look incredibly weak.

Another is that Russia gets past its current paralysis and uses overwhelming force (or attempts to) to take out Wagner, but that would severely weaken Russia’s army, and the vast majority of Wagner would no longer be a Russian asset. This would likely lead to an extended stalemate with Wagner troops defending Rostov in a similar manner to Bakhmut.

Prigozhin changing his mind and realigning with Russia seems unlikely at this point. Wagner turning on Prigozhin and realigning with Russia similarly seems unlikely at this point.

Wagner succeeding with the coup, taking control of the military, would similarly likely incur severe losses for both Russian forces and Wagner, even if there were widespread bloodless surrender and defection, it would also make Putin look even weaker. Prigozhin being in charge of Russia’s military, however, would be unpredictable. Despite recent rhetoric that Putin was deceived into invading Ukraine based on lies about Ukraine attacking the separatist regions, Prigozhin being in charge of the Russian Armed forces would likely be more effective than their current leadership. Wagner being in charge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal would also be unpredictable.

All in all, it doesn’t seem like there are any good options for Putin here.

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It must be unlikely that Regular Russian forces will fire on Wagner. They both consider themselves to be on the same side and the grievances raised by Prigozhin are probably in line with what many of them subscribe to anyway. Putin will have to concede surely?

 

[revolution saint]

Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.  I bet there's loads who'll be looking to take advantage of the situation.  If there's an anti-Putin/anti-war movement then now is the time to make a move and come out demonstrating.  Similarly the far flung regions that have been disproportionately affected by conscription, mothers of dead soldiers etc.  Any political actors could be considering a move and the same goes for elements of the army.  If you're a conscripted Russian soldier do you take this opportunity to get the fuck out of Dodge?

Putin looks weak now and I hope the vultures are circling.

[Jimmy_D]

  On 24/06/2023 at 08:40, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

It must be unlikely that Regular Russian forces will fire on Wagner. They both consider themselves to be on the same side and the grievances raised by Prigozhin are probably in line with what many of them subscribe to anyway. Putin will have to concede surely?

 

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Reports that the Russian Air Force are now targeting the Wagner convoy heading towards Moscow.

Also reports that Wagner has responded to Putin’s speech this morning by claiming that Russia will have a new president soon.

Doesn’t seem like this has much chance of being resolved any time soon.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

  On 24/06/2023 at 08:47, Jimmy_D said:

Reports that the Russian Air Force are now targeting the Wagner convoy heading towards Moscow.

Also reports that Wagner has responded to Putin’s speech this morning by claiming that Russia will have a new president soon.

Doesn’t seem like this has much chance of being resolved any time soon.

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The pilots I guess could be persuaded to tow the line because they are the elite but I would think the regular Russian soldier will not be impressed with this. I hope we do not end up having to deal with this madman. He makes Blofeld look like Eamon Holmes. 

[Lighthouse]

Completely unverified source but plausible.

[whelk]

Does anyone know how many troops Wagner have? Fighting in Ukraine and overall ?

[badgerx16]

  On 24/06/2023 at 09:15, whelk said:

Does anyone know how many troops Wagner have? Fighting in Ukraine and overall ?

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I doubt even Prighozin knows for sure. The estimate in Ukraine was up to 25 thousand, but I wouldn't think there was an accurate count of the ex-cons, nor a proper tally of caxualties and new recruits as combat operations progressed.

[SotonianWill]

What’s our best outcome from this?

- Prolonged civil war

- Wagner victory, rapist and murderers still in charge but ministry of defence and potentially putin taken down in the future.

- Putin victory (most likely) continuing on attacks on ukraine likely without the questioning from forces such as wagner

 

[AlexLaw76]

  On 24/06/2023 at 09:47, SotonianWill said:

What’s our best outcome from this?

- Prolonged civil war

- Wagner victory, rapist and murderers still in charge but ministry of defence and potentially putin taken down in the future.

- Putin victory (most likely) continuing on attacks on ukraine likely without the questioning from forces such as wagner

 

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Depends if Wagner are doing this to kill Ukrainians more efficiently. 

[benjii]

It's over a thousand km from Rostov to Moscow. No way Wagner can just drive a big enough force to stage a coup along the highway and into town, without getting pummelled, unless the regular Russian army effectively downs tools. And unless they get into Moscow they don't really threaten the power base, although this is obviously embarrassing. 

In any case, this is all quite mental.

I saw someone liken this to the Kornilov Putsch of 1917. The Wikipedia entry for this, contains the brilliant line, "The exact details and motivations of the Kornilov affair are unconfirmed due to the general confusion of all parties involved." Sounds familiar. 

 

Edited 24 June, 2023 by benjii

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

  On 24/06/2023 at 09:47, SotonianWill said:

What’s our best outcome from this?

- Prolonged civil war

- Wagner victory, rapist and murderers still in charge but ministry of defence and potentially putin taken down in the future.

- Putin victory (most likely) continuing on attacks on ukraine likely without the questioning from forces such as wagner

 

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I am not sure that a Putin win is assured. I cannot see the regular army opposing Wagner. They must hate the high command as much as Wagner.

[Colinjb]

Seems to me that this could be a good get out for Putin.

The Wagner rhetoric is that the reasons for invading/annexing Donbas was false, that the issue is Shiogu and the Military chiefs of staff.
Putin has promised to deal with those dividing Russia, he praised the Wagner fighters and did not specifically name Wagner as enemies of the state. This could be left open to interpretation later.
Should Wagner group reach Moscow, they can deal with the Military powers that be, take over and Putin can cleanse the military top brass under the pretext that he was misled over the reasons to invade Ukraine. He can withdraw troops from there, saving face and unite everything with Prigozhin now firmly lined up as his successor in waiting.

Edited 24 June, 2023 by Colinjb

[SotonianWill]

  On 24/06/2023 at 10:03, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

I am not sure that a Putin win is assured. I cannot see the regular army opposing Wagner. They must hate the high command as much as Wagner.

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true but it depends on the percentage opposing putin in the army.

The army has 800,000 + active personnel. Thus, even if some opposed putin the coup of 25,000 marching on moscow would eventually be led into a death trap. I give it about a 10% chance. 

 

Our biggest hope is a domino effect from this into the Russian public to join the fight. But seeing as those they need to join are a bunch of murderers and rapists who would they side with - Wagner or hero to many putin.

Edited 24 June, 2023 by SotonianWill

[badgerx16]

  On 24/06/2023 at 10:03, benjii said:

It's over a thousand km from Rostov to Moscow. No way Wagner can just drive a big enough force to stage a coup along the highway and into town, without getting pummelled, unless the regular Russian army effectively downs tools. And unless they get into Moscow they don't really threaten the power base, although this is obviously embarrassing. 

In any case, this is all quite mental.

I saw someone liken this to the Kornilov Putsch of 1917. The Wikipedia entry for this, contains the brilliant line, "The exact details and motivations of the Kornilov affair are unconfirmed due to the general confusion of all parties involved." Sounds familiar. 

 

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How much of the 'regular Russian army' is present in Russia,specifically the Western Military District and Moscow ? Lots of state security Police and Rosgvardia, but even they seem to have so far been reluctant to oppose Wagner. The regular army strength is between 500k and 600k, contracted soldiers rather than reserves, and as well as deployments in Ukraine they are also stationed across the entire country.

 

Edited 24 June, 2023 by badgerx16

[Dr. Kucho]

If Prigozhin is smart he’ll say to the Russians fighting in Ukraine, join us in removing this government and I’ll end the war and you all can go home. War ends and Putin removed.

Worry is that Prigozhin is an absolute nutter (based on his videos and comments) and what would be the next action.

[AlexLaw76]

  On 24/06/2023 at 10:07, badgerx16 said:

How much of the 'regular Russian army' is present in Russia ? Lots of state security Police and Rosgvardia, but even they seem to have so far been reluctant to oppose Wagner.

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then there is the vast Russian Air Force and god knows what they have as Strategic forces, which have barely been involved in Ukraine.

 

[badgerx16]

  On 24/06/2023 at 10:13, AlexLaw76 said:

then there is the vast Russian Air Force and god knows what they have as Strategic forces, which have barely been involved in Ukraine.

 

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But will they fight against Prighozin ? It will be far more difficult to hide the fighting from the civilian population than has been the case with the SMO, how will they react ? The state has control on the mass media, but rumour spread across SM gains traction very quickly.

[badgerx16]

Oryx starting a new list.....

 

[badgerx16]

Ukrainian drone unit commander keeps up with the latest breaking news.....

 

[Lighthouse]

A huge explosion and flames at a Russian military facility near Voronezh now reported to be a fuel depot. Almost certainly done by Putin loyalists to hinder any mechanised column heading towards Moscow, IMO.

[OldNick]

A column of vehicles will be wiped out quickly by the air force.

[egg]

  On 24/06/2023 at 08:37, whelk said:

Are you being serious?

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Very - I can't imagine how any child feels to have his/her father on the phone saying his last goodbyes, ditto the wife, etc. I'm not sure how anyone can't see the sadness in that situation. Don't confuse that with me feeling sadness for a mercenary who's turned his gun on his employer. 

[badgerx16]

  On 24/06/2023 at 12:31, OldNick said:

A column of vehicles will be wiped out quickly by the air force.

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Hasn't been so far.

[OldNick]

  On 24/06/2023 at 13:00, badgerx16 said:

Hasn't been so far.

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true, it is a surprise. Quite odd really

[skintsaint]

When PMC's collide...

[badgerx16]

Twitter rumours;

Wagner moving most than of their heavy equipment out of Ukraine

 

A Guards VDV ( parachute) regiment joins Wagner's march

 

Wagner opening a prison in Rostov to recruit the inmates

 

One thing is for sure, you don't take T-80s on transporters all the way to Moscow for tea and biscuits.

 

Edited 24 June, 2023 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

Putin and the Russian leadership apparently fleeing Moscow judging by air traffic.

Looks like there are some elements of Belarus’ military trying to kick things off in a similar way in Belarus.

Seems likely Lukashenko fled to Turkey soon after things kicked off in Russia too.

[Lighthouse]

Lucky buggers are getting a bank holiday on Monday, too.

[whelk]

  On 24/06/2023 at 12:55, egg said:

Very - I can't imagine how any child feels to have his/her father on the phone saying his last goodbyes, ditto the wife, etc. I'm not sure how anyone can't see the sadness in that situation. Don't confuse that with me feeling sadness for a mercenary who's turned his gun on his employer. 

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They sign up  to be brutal bullies. Fact that they find themselves on the wrong end is tough. More that die the better.  

[Jimmy_D]

Who knew that a three day march on the Capital and the seat of power was actually feasible for Russian forces.

[egg]

  On 24/06/2023 at 15:44, whelk said:

They sign up  to be brutal bullies. Fact that they find themselves on the wrong end is tough. More that die the better.  

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They do, yes, and I have no sympathy for them. That wasn't my point though. 

[egg]

  On 24/06/2023 at 15:48, Jimmy_D said:

Who knew that a three day march on the Capital and the seat of power was actually feasible for Russian forces.

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What's happened already is incredible, but their actions won't last long if aerial power is used against them. That it hasn't been already is interesting. 

[Lighthouse]

  On 24/06/2023 at 15:51, egg said:

What's happened already is incredible, but their actions won't last long if aerial power is used against them. That it hasn't been already is interesting. 

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I think you’ve spent a bit too long listening to Alexei and his, "if we take on the Russian AF it’ll all be over in one weekend," routine. If they were any good, the war in Ukraine wouldn’t be going the way it has.

[whelk]

 

[egg]

  On 24/06/2023 at 15:56, Lighthouse said:

I think you’ve spent a bit too long listening to Alexei and his, "if we take on the Russian AF it’ll all be over in one weekend," routine. If they were any good, the war in Ukraine wouldn’t be going the way it has.

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I don't follow, and I'm not sure you follow my point. 

[whelk]

  On 24/06/2023 at 15:49, egg said:

They do, yes, and I have no sympathy for them. That wasn't my point though. 

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Sorry I have genuinely missed it then

[SotonianWill]

The guardian said a few hours ago that Ukraine are currently liberating land Russia has held since 2014, but I can’t see this anywhere else. Does anyone know if this is true?

Edited 24 June, 2023 by SotonianWill