Russia

[farawaysaint]

  On 29/12/2022 at 17:05, badgerx16 said:

Ukraine claim to have shot down all of the cruise missiles that were part of today's attack.

Meanwhile, Russia shoots down one of it's own Sukhoi fighter-bombers as air defence at the Engels airbase confuse it for a Ukrainian drone.

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*Ukraine claim to have shot down all missiles aimed at Kiev.

I think 13 or so got through. 

[farawaysaint]

  On 29/12/2022 at 17:21, egg said:

Yep, and inevitably it'll happen. It's naive to think that the West/USA will fund this forever. Russia won't gain huge amounts of ground, and Ukraine won't push them back to pre 2014 borders. There can only be a diplomatic solution, and despite some saying that there shouldn't be compromise (morally I agree with the sentiment), the harsh reality is that there's no chance of peace without some. 

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The only way the US stops funding this is after an election. At the moment it has more than enough bipartisan support to continue indefinitely. 

[Lighthouse]

  On 29/12/2022 at 17:59, farawaysaint said:

The only way the US stops funding this is after an election. At the moment it has more than enough bipartisan support to continue indefinitely. 

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Iran and China’s biggest ally, threatening the stability of one of their biggest trading partners (the EEA). I think Ukraine can count on US support for a while.

Interestingly egg and Brett never seem concerned about how long Russia can keep this up. They apparently have a limitless supply of military hardware to throw into the mix.

[badgerx16]

  On 29/12/2022 at 17:57, farawaysaint said:

*Ukraine claim to have shot down all missiles aimed at Kiev.

I think 13 or so got through. 

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There were several types of weapons launched, not just cruise missiles, ( which are relatively slow and low flying ). Also, despite being hit, the debris from missiles can still be destructive.

[Jimmy_D]

  On 29/12/2022 at 17:59, farawaysaint said:

The only way the US stops funding this is after an election. At the moment it has more than enough bipartisan support to continue indefinitely. 

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At the moment the USA are seeing one of the biggest thorns in their side being defanged without risking a single US soldier for a fraction of the cost it’d take to do it themselves.

Until recently the vast majority of what they’ve sent has been surplus stock that would have to be destroyed and replaced at some point. They’ve gradually been starting to send some of the good stuff as they can see the writing on the wall for Russia.

Outside of the diminishing support that Trump still has, the rest of the Republicans that haven’t been compromised by Russia can see that too, hence the support is very bipartisan. If Russia are waiting for US support to dry up, they’re going to be waiting a long time.

Russia already know this too, it was coming up on Russian state tv during the US midterm elections.

[Jimmy_D]

  On 29/12/2022 at 18:09, badgerx16 said:

There were several types of weapons launched, not just cruise missiles, ( which are relatively slow and low flying ). Also, despite being hit, the debris from missiles can still be destructive.

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Yeah, Russia really are running low, hence the smaller scale attacks, combined with Ukraine’s increasing ability to intercept them.

Most impressive perhaps has been the reported 100% success rate for NASAMS. The US recently announced another two due to be sent to Ukraine. That’s perhaps a bigger help to them than the Patriot system announced.

[egg]

  On 29/12/2022 at 18:07, Lighthouse said:

Iran and China’s biggest ally, threatening the stability of one of their biggest trading partners (the EEA). I think Ukraine can count on US support for a while.

Interestingly egg and Brett never seem concerned about how long Russia can keep this up. They apparently have a limitless supply of military hardware to throw into the mix.

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Iran will supply them all day long, and I have little doubt China too. They have the currency of oil and gas to fund it. People have been saying for ages that the Russians are all but out of hardware, but that's nonsense. 

[Jimmy_D]

  On 29/12/2022 at 20:43, egg said:

Iran will supply them all day long, and I have little doubt China too. They have the currency of oil and gas to fund it. People have been saying for ages that the Russians are all but out of hardware, but that's nonsense. 

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So, supposing Iran and China’s miltech industries can keep up with NATO’s, what makes you think that they’ll be more willing to risk evading sanctions and supply Russia long term than NATO are to supply Ukraine?

[egg]

  On 29/12/2022 at 20:50, Jimmy_D said:

So, supposing Iran and China’s miltech industries can keep up with NATO’s, what makes you think that they’ll be more willing to evade sanctions and supply Russia long term than NATO are to supply Ukraine?

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It's naive to think that China and Iran will be concerned about sanctions. In addition India will buy as much oil as they can. The west are dependant on two of those for much of the world's manufacturing so are boxed in sanctions wise against them. I appreciate that you want to believe that Russia will run out of money and ammo, but it's just not the reality. 

[Jimmy_D]

  On 29/12/2022 at 20:58, egg said:

It's naive to think that China and Iran will be concerned about sanctions. In addition India will buy as much oil as they can. The west are dependant on two of those for much of the world's manufacturing so are boxed in sanctions wise against them. I appreciate that you want to believe that Russia will run out of money and ammo, but it's just not the reality. 

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What I want is irrelevant.

They are, however, running out of money.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-falls-70-vs-dollar-sanctions-weigh-2022-12-27/

And ammo. (And morale)

https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-group-prigozhin-backs-video-cursing-russia-top-general-gerasimov-2022-12?r=US&IR=T
 

 

[Lighthouse]

  On 29/12/2022 at 20:43, egg said:

Iran will supply them all day long, and I have little doubt China too. They have the currency of oil and gas to fund it. People have been saying for ages that the Russians are all but out of hardware, but that's nonsense. 

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So Iran (teetering on the edge of full out revolt by their own citizens) will continue to chuck funds into Russia’s military indefinitely, as will China (who have made an absolute dogs dinner of dealing with their own COVID crisis and are experiencing massive manufacturing deficits as a result). USA on the other hand just can’t keep up, selling their old, second hand decades old equipment to Ukraine. Gotcha.

[Lighthouse]

  On 29/12/2022 at 18:26, Jimmy_D said:

Yeah, Russia really are running low, hence the smaller scale attacks, combined with Ukraine’s increasing ability to intercept them.

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It’s hard to establish exactly how many of Russias missiles hit infrastructure or civilian conurbations but a reasonable guess would be perhaps 50-60 after air defences have taken out their share. A similar payload could probably have been delivered by seven or eight He111 bombers during the blitz. I can’t imagine a country far bigger than the UK surrendering to that any time soon.

[aintforever]

Obviously don’t know how kosher this vid is but there have been many reports of lack of shells from the Russian front lines. Also of them having to use tanks as artillery because they can get hold of tank shells easier.
 

 

[farawaysaint]

For some reason this picture is familiar…

 

[badgerx16]

  On 29/12/2022 at 22:08, aintforever said:

Obviously don’t know how kosher this vid is but there have been many reports of lack of shells from the Russian front lines. Also of them having to use tanks as artillery because they can get hold of tank shells easier.
 

 

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There seems to be more of this sort of story becoming public, and it isn't just Wagner - there are a few more PMCs getting involved, and complaining about the regular army, including one supposedly run by Sergei Shoigu the Defence Minister.

As for the tanks replacing artillery, a knock on effect is that they are reported to be wearing out the barrels of the tank guns, as they are not designed for prolonged rapid firing.

[egg]

  On 30/12/2022 at 09:44, farawaysaint said:

For some reason this picture is familiar…

 

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Odd. Who's said don't attack Putin/Russia? Who's said don't arm Ukraine? Why not try to find peace? 

[Jimmy_D]

  On 29/12/2022 at 21:40, Lighthouse said:

It’s hard to establish exactly how many of Russias missiles hit infrastructure or civilian conurbations but a reasonable guess would be perhaps 50-60 after air defences have taken out their share. A similar payload could probably have been delivered by seven or eight He111 bombers during the blitz. I can’t imagine a country far bigger than the UK surrendering to that any time soon.

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Looks like they were expecting 120-odd from Russia’s preparations, but Russia didn’t have them. Looks like 15 got through.

 

[buctootim]

Those 15 will have a warhead of no more than 450kg - one load of a WW2 Lancaster bomber to use Lighthouse’s example. We used to send 1.000 bombers a day against Germany so this is a drop in the ocean.  

[Whitey Grandad]

  On 30/12/2022 at 19:03, buctootim said:

Those 15 will have a warhead of no more than 450kg - one load of a WW2 Lancaster bomber to use Lighthouse’s example. We used to send 1.000 bombers a day against Germany so this is a drop in the ocean.  

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A Lancaster was capable of carrying twenty times that load if necessary.

[buctootim]

  On 30/12/2022 at 19:09, Whitey Grandad said:

A Lancaster was capable of carrying twenty times that load if necessary.

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Yep I meant 15 450kg warheads would  be less than one full load 

[badgerx16]

  On 30/12/2022 at 19:03, buctootim said:

Those 15 will have a warhead of no more than 450kg - one load of a WW2 Lancaster bomber to use Lighthouse’s example. We used to send 1.000 bombers a day against Germany so this is a drop in the ocean.  

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Add in the daylight raids of the USAAF, and we still failed to force them to quit in 3 years of pretty much constant attacks. Civilian populations have proved to be amazingly resilient under such stress.

[Lighthouse]

  On 30/12/2022 at 19:09, Whitey Grandad said:

A Lancaster was capable of carrying twenty times that load if necessary.

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  On 30/12/2022 at 19:33, buctootim said:

Yep I meant 15 450kg warheads would  be less than one full load 

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By the end of the war they were capable of dropping a ten tonne Grand Slam on a target the size of a viaduct, railway junction or submarine pen. Russians have sporadic success on targets the size of a power station or small city.

[Whitey Grandad]

  On 30/12/2022 at 20:28, Lighthouse said:

 

By the end of the war they were capable of dropping a ten tonne Grand Slam on a target the size of a viaduct, railway junction or submarine pen. Russians have sporadic success on targets the size of a power station or small city.

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Yes, a great aircraft. Designed by Roy Chadwick of Avro. He used to live across the river from St Mary’s Stadium. There is a blue plaque at 38 Chessel Avenue in Bittern “where he lived from 1922 to 29 when the AVRO design team was based nearby at Hamble”

[buctootim]

I thought Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was worth watching just to hear her rant when pissed. But there's more! Classy wedding and some strawberries. The replies are better than the post.  

 

 

Edited 31 December, 2022 by buctootim

[whelk]

  On 29/12/2022 at 17:16, AlexLaw76 said:

It all hangs on the USA, forget the rest of us.  If / when the USA have had enough, it is all over bar the shouting.

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Have you got links to any of your previous predictions being remotely accurate on this subject?

[cloggy saint]

Russian authorities have announced that soldiers and state employees deployed in Ukraine will be exempt from income tax, in the latest effort to encourage support for its military operation there.

Desperate.

[Weston Super Saint]

Dead men don't pay tax.

[badgerx16]

They could try harder to be convincing about Vlad meeting his people.. The first image is from Putler's New Year message......

Edited 31 December, 2022 by badgerx16

[buctootim]

  On 31/12/2022 at 17:42, badgerx16 said:

They could try harder to be convincing about Vlad meeting his people.. The first image is from Putler's New Year message......

 

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Pretty sure this guy is the same one too 

 

 

[Lighthouse]

Ironically, the only person there who’s actually different is probably ‘Putin’.

[Lighthouse]

  On 31/12/2022 at 00:43, buctootim said:

I thought Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was worth watching just to hear her rant when pissed. But there's more! Classy wedding and some strawberries. The replies are better than the post.  

 

 

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They look like the promotional stills from a porno called, "whore bride pleasures five groomsmen in the back of limo," or similar.

[skintsaint]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/01/01/nearly-90-of-ukrainians-optimistic-about-2023-97-believe-ukraine-can-beat-russia/

Small sample but doesn't sound like a defeated population.

[badgerx16]

Possibly over 700 Russian conscripts killed when the school building they were billeted in was struck by Ukrainian HIMARS rockets. Didn't help that the same building held a large ammunition store and vehicle park.

[farawaysaint]

  On 02/01/2023 at 12:15, badgerx16 said:

Possibly over 700 Russian conscripts killed when the school building they were billeted in was struck by Ukrainian HIMARS rockets. Didn't help that the same building held a large ammunition store and vehicle park.

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Even Russian sources saying hundreds of dead so a complete disaster.

It’s mental to be frank I can’t think of another army on earth which would just shrug off the loss of 700 soldiers in one strike.

[badgerx16]

  On 02/01/2023 at 12:47, farawaysaint said:

Even Russian sources saying hundreds of dead so a complete disaster.

It’s mental to be frank I can’t think of another army on earth which would just shrug off the loss of 700 soldiers in one strike.

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One official Russian spokesman said they successfully intercepted the missiles !

Edited 2 January, 2023 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

 

[Jimmy_D]

Looks like a combination of improved air defence and network redundancy, as well as importing power from the EU, has made Ukraine’s power grid extremely resilient, judging by the replies to this.

[farawaysaint]

  On 02/01/2023 at 12:52, badgerx16 said:

One official Russian spokesman said they successfully intercepted the missiles !

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Russian Mod has officially confirmed 63 deaths now. Given anyone under the rubble will just be officially “missing“and the Russian reluctance to avoid sharing casualty numbers I think it is safe to say it was significantly higher.

[badgerx16]

  On 02/01/2023 at 18:08, farawaysaint said:

Russian Mod has officially confirmed 63 deaths now. Given anyone under the rubble will just be officially “missing“and the Russian reluctance to avoid sharing casualty numbers I think it is safe to say it was significantly higher.

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They'll just erect a screen round the site and pour concrete over it. Just like the theatre in Mariupol.

[Weston Super Saint]

  On 02/01/2023 at 18:13, badgerx16 said:

They'll just erect a screen round the site and pour concrete over it. Just like the theatre in Mariupol.

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They got the idea from the Mafia who utilised it to great effect when building big bridges 😜

[badgerx16]

Just watched a video of a Russian POW being interviewed. He claims he was captured by French mercenaries - he knew they were French because they were speaking English (!). When asked if he had been carrying a gun he said yes, when asked why he said "for self defence". When asked why he had to act in self defence he told the interviewer " because the Ukrainians were firing at me".

( To use a common quote from a Ukrainian source "We are lucky they are so fucking stupid ". )

 

[badgerx16]

I am reading the RUSI assessment of the first 5 months of the conflict. Apart from Russia's planning for an anticipated 10 day operation not allowing for any delays or setbacks, Russian intelligence failed in other areas. ( As did Ukraine's). One interesting paragraph on how the Ukrainians responded to strikes on their airfields :

"The poor Russian battle damage assessment process made the Russian military highly vulnerable  
to deception, which has been consistent throughout the conflict. Early strikes on Ukrainian  
airfields, for example, destroyed many hangars. By photographing this damage and printing the  
resulting pattern on to sheets, it became possible to clear the rubble and erect covers for aircraft  
to return to the site, sheltering in positions that the Russians would confirm as destroyed. This  
led – somewhat amusingly – to the Russians debating whether Ukrainian fighter aircraft were  
operating from subterranean shelters at several sites".

As a consequence:

"( Russian ) Aircraft did not fly with EW pods during the opening phase as they were not deemed
necessary following the presumed success of the strike campaign. Similarly, Russian manoeuvre
Forces were not properly supported by air-defence units and Russian air-defence units were told 
to presume that aircraft were friendly. This enabled a significant number of ground-attack sorties
by the Ukrainian Air Force, including  using UAVs such as TB2, against Russian formations, even when
they had attached air-defence units"

Edited 3 January, 2023 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3647091-russian-fleet-loses-another-two-flagships-intelligence-source.html

[buctootim]

Where's Wally? Brutal depiction of what happens when you dump untrained conscripts with little equipment in the front line with not so miuch as a shovel to dig a trench. 

 

[badgerx16]

 

[badgerx16]

Kazakhstan thumbs it's nose at the Kremlin....

https://odessa-journal.com/yurt-of-invincibility-was-opened-in-bucha-with-the-support-of-kazakhstan/

[Tamesaint]

  On 31/12/2022 at 17:42, badgerx16 said:

They could try harder to be convincing about Vlad meeting his people.. The first image is from Putler's New Year message......

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Apparently she is the junior Environment Secretary and, ahem, a "friend " of Putin's.

[Weston Super Saint]

  On 08/01/2023 at 18:48, Tamesaint said:

Apparently she is the junior Environment Secretary and, ahem, a "friend " of Putin's.

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More 'coincidences' here

[skintsaint]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1613671178563977217.html

Sounds fun for Russians if true.

[buctootim]

  On 13/01/2023 at 04:45, skintsaint said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1613671178563977217.html

Sounds fun for Russians if true.

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I read they have lost 10,000 men just to take a provincial town and atttempting to take Bakhmut.  Also a Machiavellian theory gonig around that Putin promised Prizghozin greater power if he took Soledar knowing that he would either destroy his troops in trying, or fail.