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whelk

By whelk
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Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales  

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  1. 1. Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales

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egg

egg

Posted
Posted

Fair point @Weston Super Saint, but I suspect very few Ukrainians will be delighted about it. My point is that it's easy to judge the Russian "success" on the one area they're struggling when they're plainly making gains of other sorts...why dig in and fight when you smash the infrastructure and resolve from a distance. 

whelk

whelk

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Surprise surprise certain posters can’t comprehend the Ukrainian spirit and desperate for their foolhardy early predictions to come true.

Although fair play in not vanishing like Manjji and Killer Knee when their nonsense posts show them to have very little knowledge.

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 07:29, whelk said:

Surprise surprise certain posters can’t comprehend the Ukrainian spirit and desperate for their foolhardy early predictions to come true.

Although fair play in not vanishing like Manjji and Killer Knee when their nonsense posts show them to have very little knowledge.

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The Ukrainian people can have all the resolve in the world, but that doesn't help much when they're without heat, electricity, water in the winter and being shelled relentlessly.

whelk

whelk

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 07:45, egg said:

The Ukrainian people can have all the resolve in the world, but that doesn't help much when they're without heat, electricity, water in the winter and being shelled relentlessly.

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Don’t think anyone is disputing that it is a dire situation for them but the spirit and need to not fold is huge. Resilience that it is hard to imagine when we are used to our creature comforts. Any way you look at this it is dreadful for Putin and Russia. The fact that he can exert misery on people was never the goal - it’s not like he is pummelling an aggressor to protect his army just being an evil cunt trying to save face. China are not supporting. 

  • Like 1
Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 07:14, egg said:

Fair point @Weston Super Saint, but I suspect very few Ukrainians will be delighted about it. My point is that it's easy to judge the Russian "success" on the one area they're struggling when they're plainly making gains of other sorts...why dig in and fight when you smash the infrastructure and resolve from a distance. 

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Which is this, "one area," you speak of? I can’t decide whether you’re talking about:

  • Soldiers dead and wounded
  • Long term effect of economic sanctions
  • Terrible international PR
  • Territorial losses
  • Huge numbers of military hardware lost or captured
  • Massive financial cost of keeping the war going
  • The rest of Europe basically quitting your main exports, hydrocarbons, cold turkey.
  • Russian weapons proving hugely inferior to NATO ones on the battlefield.
  • An already stagnant economy now shrinking and dropping behind the likes of Spain and Australia on the world stage.
  • Even the latest Russian planes and tanks not being deployed reliably or in sufficient numbers to make much difference.
  • Their so called ally, China, basically taking them to the cleaners for my natural resources they need.
  • Political unrest from and within several disputed and breakaway regions.
  • Mass exodus of younger, more educated people within more realistic ambitions than Putin’s Russian empire fantasy.

But I guess these are all small trivialities when you can make Ukrainians, some of the toughest b*stards on the planet, put on an extra jumper for a few weeks.

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 08:51, Lighthouse said:

Which is this, "one area," you speak of? I can’t decide whether you’re talking about:

  • Soldiers dead and wounded
  • Long term effect of economic sanctions
  • Terrible international PR
  • Territorial losses
  • Huge numbers of military hardware lost or captured
  • Massive financial cost of keeping the war going
  • The rest of Europe basically quitting your main exports, hydrocarbons, cold turkey.
  • Russian weapons proving hugely inferior to NATO ones on the battlefield.
  • An already stagnant economy now shrinking and dropping behind the likes of Spain and Australia on the world stage.
  • Even the latest Russian planes and tanks not being deployed reliably or in sufficient numbers to make much difference.
  • Their so called ally, China, basically taking them to the cleaners for my natural resources they need.
  • Political unrest from and within several disputed and breakaway regions.
  • Mass exodus of younger, more educated people within more realistic ambitions than Putin’s Russian empire fantasy.

But I guess these are all small trivialities when you can make Ukrainians, some of the toughest b*stards on the planet, put on an extra jumper for a few weeks.

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Blimey, you're convinced by the success of the Ukrainians aren't you! How about the success of Western economies...we've got milk and honey! There's never any winners in war, but it's a fallacy to suggest that Ukraine are winning, and that only Russia are suffering from the fall out of their ridiculous actions. 

Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 09:08, egg said:

Blimey, you're convinced by the success of the Ukrainians aren't you! How about the success of Western economies...we've got milk and honey! There's never any winners in war, but it's a fallacy to suggest that Ukraine are winning, and that only Russia are suffering from the fall out of their ridiculous actions. 

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I havent' claimed Ukraine is cruising to an easy victory or that western economies are getting off Scott-free but none of that answers the question; what's the one area Russia is struggling in?

Colinjb

Colinjb

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 29/11/2022 at 09:08, egg said:

Blimey, you're convinced by the success of the Ukrainians aren't you! How about the success of Western economies...we've got milk and honey! There's never any winners in war, but it's a fallacy to suggest that Ukraine are winning, and that only Russia are suffering from the fall out of their ridiculous actions. 

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Their nation and homeland still exists. That in itself is a victory. More then that, Putin's desire to destroy them as a state and a people has utterly failed as they are more united and determined then ever.
 

I would go as far to say whatever happens here, with a stronger and more united NATO and a Ukrainian state that now considers Russia sworn enemies for generations to come, Russia has lost.

Edited by Colinjb
  • Like 1
egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 09:16, Lighthouse said:

I havent' claimed Ukraine is cruising to an easy victory or that western economies are getting off Scott-free but none of that answers the question; what's the one area Russia is struggling in?

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It's a pointless discussion. The main area where they're struggling is to claim land, almost everything else you mention are inevitable consequences of war. However you cut it, in the actual war, Russia have gained some land, and have inflicted a hell of a lot more agony on the Ukrainian people, it's infrastructure, and the west, than they themselves have suffered. Your view is that they haven't achieved as much as you believe they should have achieved without focusing on what's actually happened to them in comparison to others. 

  • Confused 1
Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 09:21, egg said:

It's a pointless discussion.

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Well you keep saying, I'm just curious as to what exactly it is you're refering to.

  On 29/11/2022 at 09:21, egg said:

The main area where they're struggling is to claim land

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Wait, I thought that was the one thing they had actually gained from all this? A small amount of farmland in the area around Mariupol?

  On 29/11/2022 at 09:21, egg said:

almost everything else you mention are inevitable consequences of war

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The carpet bombing of Dresden was an inevitable consequence of war, doesn't mean you can just strug it off.

  On 29/11/2022 at 09:21, egg said:

have inflicted a hell of a lot more agony on the Ukrainian people, it's infrastructure, and the west, than they themselves have suffered

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Quite definitively not true. The west hasn't lost a single soldier or piece of amrour in this conflict, only the hand me downs we've donated to Ukraine. Russia's infrastructure will suffer horribly from the sanctions, they build almost nothing modern and hi-tech themselves. Russian people are being dragged from their civilian lives, given a barely adequate (non-winter) uniform and thrown into the meat grinder.

  On 29/11/2022 at 09:21, egg said:

Your view is that they haven't achieved as much as you believe they should have achieved without focusing on what's actually happened to them in comparison to others. 

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My view is that they haven't achieved anything of any help or relevance whatsoever to Russia. Aside from a bunch of hot air and bravado about their Russian Empire fantasy, they've got nothing to show for everything they've lost.

  • Like 1
Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 09:08, egg said:

Blimey, you're convinced by the success of the Ukrainians aren't you! How about the success of Western economies...we've got milk and honey! There's never any winners in war, but it's a fallacy to suggest that Ukraine are winning, and that only Russia are suffering from the fall out of their ridiculous actions. 

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The concept of ‘winning’ in these circumstances is nonsense. Ukraine is fighting for its survival. Russia isn’t. Russia tried a massive act of theft and got its fingers caught in the till.

  • Like 3
buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted
  On 29/11/2022 at 09:21, egg said:

Russia have gained some land, and have inflicted a hell of a lot more agony on the Ukrainian people, it's infrastructure, and the west, than they themselves have suffered. 

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No they haven't. They have temporarily occupied some land which Ukraine is progressively pushing them out of. In doing so they have put both Donbass and Crimea back into play, something that was unthinkable in January. They have also likely lost £300bn in assets, half of their armour and a third of their regular army. It is also highly likely that the Putin regime have screwed themselves 

Not sure how you fill in scorecards but I wouldnt play bingo with you. 

  • Haha 1
badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:14, egg said:

Surely it's relative to the amount that each side had. What we don't know is what they each available to use going forward. 

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Given that Ukraine, even without Western help, has more than it started with, and much of what Russia had "in storage" is no better than scrap, it is not an easy quantification.

  • Like 1
egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:26, badgerx16 said:

That is Ukraine's claim for Russian losses. Officially, Russia admits to just over 5000 KIA, Ukraine to about 9000.

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Cheers. I couldn't make out the number. Whatever they are, tragic and needless all round. 

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 30/11/2022 at 16:05, Weston Super Saint said:

Astonishing that Ukraine had 100,000 officers in the first place.....

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  On 30/11/2022 at 18:21, egg said:

Yep. Gotta question what they have left, number and fitness for purpose. 

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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/30/7378622/

 

"The European Commission admitted the mistake regarding the figures of the losses of the Ukrainian military, which allegedly amounted to 100,000 people killed, as Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, announced on 30 November."

 

The given 'best estimate' is that Ukrainian casualties are probably equal to Russian : that is troops in general, not officers alone.

Edited by badgerx16
egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:30, badgerx16 said:

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/30/7378622/

 

"The European Commission admitted the mistake regarding the figures of the losses of the Ukrainian military, which allegedly amounted to 100,000 people killed, as Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, announced on 30 November."

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Hmm...not the sort of mistake you'd expect them to make.

 

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:32, egg said:

Hmm...not the sort of mistake you'd expect them to make.

 

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As I have added to my previous post, the figure is for total troop losses, not officers alone, but the Ukrainians are not happy that this figure is being quoted in public like this.

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:35, badgerx16 said:

As I have added to my previous post, the figure is for total troop losses, not officers alone, but the Ukrainians are not happy that this figure is being quoted in public like this.

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Call me a cynic, but the media message has been that russia are doing badly and ukraine oh so well. We now have a row back on the EU numbers. Isn't it possible that the EU were in fact correct? 

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:41, egg said:

Call me a cynic, but the media message has been that russia are doing badly and ukraine oh so well. We now have a row back on the EU numbers. Isn't it possible that the EU were in fact correct? 

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If the Ukrainian army was set up in the same way as the British then approx 20% of the army strength would be officers, from junior Lt up to Generals. If the 100k figure for officers KIA is correct then effectively all of the officer corps of the Ukrainian army as of Feb 24th 2022 have been killed. Extrapolating this would also imply that the entire 500k strong army that Ukraine started the war with must, by now, be casualties.

Personally, I think the US estimate of 100k total military deaths on either side is the most accurate estimate currently in circulation.

Edited by badgerx16
buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:58, badgerx16 said:

If the 100k figure for officers KIA is correct then effectively all of the officer corps of the Ukrainian army as of Feb 24th 2022 have been killed.

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Its clearly just an error either by her speech writer or in translation - for example when we call police constables 'officers'  

AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 18:58, badgerx16 said:

If the Ukrainian army was set up in the same way as the British then approx 20% of the army strength would be officers, from junior Lt up to Generals. If the 100k figure for officers KIA is correct then effectively all of the officer corps of the Ukrainian army as of Feb 24th 2022 have been killed. Extrapolating this would also imply that the entire 500k strong army that Ukraine started the war with must, by now, be casualties.

Personally, I think the US estimate of 100k total military deaths on either side is the most accurate estimate currently in circulation.

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In reality, a Corporal is an Officer - just a non-commissioned variety

 

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 20:04, AlexLaw76 said:

So?

 

 

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It is, perhaps, as pointless an addition to the discussion as yours. I suspect that everybody, other than you, reading the above exchange of posts would share the same understanding as to what ranks in the Ukrainian army the term 'Officer' referred.

AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 20:08, badgerx16 said:

It is, perhaps, as pointless an addition to the discussion as yours. I suspect that everybody, other than you, reading the above exchange of posts would share the same understanding as to what ranks in the Ukrainian army the term 'Officer' referred.

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Well, you decided what the figures are with your own determination of what an officer is.  I am pointing out that in many nations, it means different things.  In our own country, a junior rank in the army is an officer.  Not sure what point you are making about saluting them or not.

Anyway, what the lady from the EU said was a figure of speech no doubt, like Tim says, we call constables 'Police Officers'

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 20:11, AlexLaw76 said:

Well, you decided what the figures are with your own determination of what an officer is.  I am pointing out that in many nations, it means different things.  In our own country, a junior rank in the army is an officer.  Not sure what point you are making about saluting them or not.

Anyway, what the lady from the EU said was a figure of speech no doubt, like Tim says, we call constables 'Police Officers'

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So, based on the available information, would you agree with the estimation that the Ukrainians have probably lost around 100k KIA, ( across all ranks ) ?

Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted

As the EU has since clarified, the 100,000 refers to external estimates of the total killed and wounded military casualties for Ukraine. Historically the ratio of that has been about 1:3 which would put Ukraine KIA at around 25,000 from those estimates. They have, however, been recieving NATO training and gear, including medical, which in recent years has done significantly better than 1:3 in terms of keeping the wounded alive.

The 88,000 figure is Ukraine's estimate of Russian military casualties that have been killed, and doesn't include wounded or POWs. From the reports seen from troops on the Russian side about the lack of medical equipment and how the wounded are treated (or left behind), it seems likely they're doing significantly worse than that 1:3 ratio.

Considering the disparity in terms of equipment, logistics, and training, especially recently in the conflict, as well as the direction of movement of the front lines and Ukraine's continued military capability, as well as the differences in military doctrine between Ukraine and Russia, there's no reason to think that Ukraine have 100,000 soldiers KIA.

Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
  On 30/11/2022 at 22:45, badgerx16 said:

Yeah, my mistake in typing what I remembered from Mark Milley;s report. Should have put 'casualties', not 'KIA'.

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Seems to be accurate, at least to what's being claimed. Ukraine have claimed about 100,000 casualties in total since that statement by von der Leyen. Someone's put a translation of the relevent section in the comments here;

 

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)

Admittedly written with a particular bias, but an interesting review of recent history ;

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1598132925085913088.html

"There are no separatists in the Donbas. The War in Donbas was an elaborate russian ploy. Some global media sources keep referencing the so-called DPR and LPR patched russian troops as "pro-russian separatists." In this thread, I aim to explain why it is russian propaganda."

Edited by badgerx16

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