Russia

[whelk]

Anyone worried about Putin? And Biden and NATO’s weak position?

[jawillwill]

Nah, Liz Truss has warned Putin not to f**k with things, so all should be fine.

[badgerx16]

Russian foreign policy has historically been based on 'spheres of influence', which in their case ranged across the entirity of the old Russian Empire; from Finland  and the Baltic Sea to Vladivostock, from the Arctic to the Caucasus and the Black Sea, including Latvia. Lithuania, Estonia, Eastern Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and the various central Asian "Stans". Over the last 30 years the Russian sense of nationalism has been eroded as the various regions around it's periphery have gained independence, and in the case of the European regions realigned to a Western viewpoint.

Putin is sabre rattling for his domestic audience. He had jusification, in his eyes, for his actions in the Crimea, and the continuing support for the secessionists in Donbas, as he was supporting ethnic Russian minorities, ( a situation made more complicated by Stalin's enforced population relocations that altered the local demographics ). In the case of Ukraine he sees a threat from the political defeat of pro Russian parties, yet has been emboldened in the last few years by Trump's apparent lukewarm support for the European members of NATO. Hopefully this is just posturing to acheive some sort of concession regarding Ukraine's future direction - he has little to gain by going "hot" against the US; Russian forces are strong on paper, but have been poorly serviced over the last decade, and I wouldn't think there would be a great level of support domestically for a major military confrontation. It really depends on how firm the US wants to be, given it has redirected it's attention towards China.

Edited 21 January, 2022 by badgerx16

[spyinthesky]

15 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Russian foreign policy has historically been based on 'spheres of influence', which in their case ranged across the entirity of the old Russian Empire; from Finland  and the Baltic Sea to Vladivostock, from the Arctic to the Caucasus and the Black Sea, including Latvia. Lithuania, Estonia, Eastern Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and the various central Asian "Stans". Over the last 30 years the Russian sense of nationalism has been eroded as the various regions around it's periphery have gained independence, and in the case of the European regions realigned to a Western viewpoint.

Putin is sabre rattling for his domestic audience. He had jusification, in his eyes, for his actions in the Crimea, and the continuing support for the secessionists in Donbas, as he was supporting ethnic Russian minorities, ( a situation made more complicated by Stalin's enforced population relocations that altered the local demographics ). In the case of Ukraine he sees a threat from the political defeat of pro Russian parties, yet has been emboldened in the last few years by Trump's apparent lukewarm support for the European members of NATO. Hopefully this is just posturing to acheive some sort of concession regarding Ukraine's future direction - he has little to gain by going "hot" against the US; Russian forces are strong on paper, but have been poorly serviced over the last decade, and I wouldn't think there would be a great level of support domestically for a major military confrontation. It really depends on how firm the US wants to be, given it has redirected it's attention towards China.

There is always the problem of a 'skirmish' or worse as a consequence of Russian ambition to return to the previous boundaries of the Soviet Union.
NATO is significantly dependent on the USA for military support so if this support wavers then western Europe will be weaken and more prone to Russian aggression.
There is also the threat of the US having to deal with China's growing military power which is likely to lead to action against Taiwan.
A military alliance between Russia and China, perhaps including North Korea and Iran would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

[AlexLaw76]

This remarkable build up is still going on. The largest Russian military mass since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

 

Edited 23 January, 2022 by AlexLaw76

[Saint in Paradise]

I wonder how worried Putin is in case Ukraine asks to join NATO and then allows U.S. troops to set up bases there.

I remember how uptight the U.S. got when the Soviet Union tried to introduce nuclear missiles in Cuba. 

Just to throw something else into the ring I wonder how much behind the scenes influence China is having on Putin?

I wonder if they are encouraging this situation to keep the U.S.'s mind off of Taiwan so that China can invade?

 

( Yes I know I wonder a lot 😁 )

[whelk]

All very bleak. Should definitely look at allowing fracking. Gas cheap as chips in US

[buctootim]

I worked in Ukraine over a three year period up till 2019 and went there around 35 times. I think Putin has become disconnected from reality in the way that many autocrats (and PMs) do after too long in power.  He thinks the ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine feel loyal to Russia and want to be united with Russia again like they were in the USSR. That might have been true 30 years ago but overwhelmingly its not true now. He should have learned his lesson in 2014 when he expected the whole of the ethnic Russian east to rebel in response to the agitators he sent in. Instead the ethnic Russian mayors of the major cities Kharkiv, Odessa and Mariupol organised resistance and drove them out.  

Years of intimidation and destabilisation by Putin, especially in the past 15 years has totally alienated them and made people patritiotic about Ukraine in a way they never used to be. The invasion in 2014 created 3 million internal refugees. Everybody in Ukraine knows somebody who was driven from their home and lost everything. Ironically its his actions which have driven the wedge between the two countries, just as its his actions of threatening his neighbours which drove them into the arms of NATO in the first place.  His is the author of his own misfortunes. 

If Putin does invade I think it will be the beginning of the end for him.     

[Mystic Force]

I get the feeling most people (Including western governments) don't think he Putin will do it. I really think he might. I remember when the communists fell in the USSR we thought that The central European countries would join NATO and the EU followed by those further east overtime, to make us all allies rather than adversaries. Unfortunately that got derailed, now we are living in this world.

Ok I am going to invoke Godwin's law and there have been other autocrats that have attempted to claim territory over time to see what they could get away with and it worked for a while claiming that they needed to do so to protect certain national groups outside their own border......

[Turkish]

17 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

This remarkable build up is still going on. The largest Russian military mass since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

 

Might have to set sail soon Brett, you'll be away for a while for this one pal. hope you've got a stash of clean aprons.

[buctootim]

War isnt always hell

[benjii]

On 24/01/2022 at 01:53, AlexLaw76 said:

This remarkable build up is still going on. The largest Russian military mass since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

 

Who is cooking all the breakfasts?

[AlexLaw76]

7 minutes ago, benjii said:

Who is cooking all the breakfasts?

No idea?

[StDunko]

1 hour ago, benjii said:

Who is cooking all the breakfasts?

Alexei Zakon76?

[badgerx16]

Apparently a new mutual security pact between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK is about to be announced.

 

The last time we had a security pact with Poland was 1939.........

[buctootim]

22 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Apparently a new mutual security pact between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK is about to be announced.

 

The last time we had a security pact with Poland was 1939.........

Worked out fine in the end - 50 years is nuffink!  

[badgerx16]

26 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

The last time we had a security pact with Poland was 1939.........

 

2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Worked out fine in the end - 50 years is nuffink!  

No wonder the Germans are keeping out of it 😉

Edited 1 February, 2022 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Apparently a new mutual security pact between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK is about to be announced.

 

The last time we had a security pact with Poland was 1939.........

Oh good. So if we are ever invaded Poland or the Ukraine will come to our aid. Now I can sleep safely at night.

[badgerx16]

Seeing as Liz Truss is currently in Moscow, why don't we simply tell Putin that unless he backs down we will leave her there.

[spyinthesky]

The Russian Foreign Minister is a no nonsense individual who has been in the job for 17 years.

Meantime we have a wet behind the ears counterpart who's main claim to fame was once getting cheesed off about cheese!!!

[AlexLaw76]

2 hours ago, spyinthesky said:

The Russian Foreign Minister is a no nonsense individual who has been in the job for 17 years.

Meantime we have a wet behind the ears counterpart who's main claim to fame was once getting cheesed off about cheese!!!

Part and parcel of being a western democracy.  We have people (if they survive reshuffles) who will do the job for a few years at best.  During that time, they have to dance to various tunes to get ensure they get re-elected.  Beit discussing if women have a cervix or demanding that we are tough on immigration - whilst doing very little as they will get slaughtered by the media (on each side).

The other option in our situation - sending over David Lammey!  That is as good as it gets for us, which is what we demand.

[Lighthouse]

Thankfully Truss is never going to be asked to command a tank battalion or launch an AMRAAM against an Sukhoi, so I don't think she's a particular hindrance to the military. She's just the cheese loving face of the government, there will be hundreds of people with real brains making the decisions.

Besides, Russia is hardly immune from bureaucracy, jobs for the boys, secret handshakes, yes men and arse covering. They will have their own internal problems in all this.

[Sheaf Saint]

Seems like it's hotting up.

I'm so relieved though that we have a strong, dependable statesman in No.10 who was previously an outstanding foreign secretary and absolutely definitely isn't up to his eyeballs in dirty Russian money. Makes me feel reassured and confident we can face down any potential threat.

[badgerx16]

Russia's FM makes a fool of ours; ( from the BBC running coverage )

 

"You do recognise Russia's sovereignty over the Rostov and Voronezh regions?" Lavrov asked, referring to two Russian regions.

After a brief pause, the paper says, Truss replied: "Great Britain will never recognise Russia's sovereignty over those regions."

"Great Britain's Ambassador to the RF [Russian Federation], Deborah Bronnert, had to step in, delicately explaining to Ms Truss that the two regions [Rostov and Voronezh] are indeed Russian,"

[Baird of the land]

There seems to be a 'let's have a fight' spiral happening. Worryingly no one seems to be trying defuse the tension instead its all about macho posturing.

Curious if its a post covid thing because we've seen a definite uptick in the likes of football related disturbances etc too.

[buctootim]

17 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

There seems to be a 'let's have a fight' spiral happening. Worryingly no one seems to be trying defuse the tension instead its all about macho posturing.

Curious if its a post covid thing because we've seen a definite uptick in the likes of football related disturbances etc too.

Its more to do with the Falklands factor and looking strong. Thatcher was facing election defeat until she became a war hero. Its also why 'strongman' little midget Pootie is still half popular in Russia. Johnson wants to salvage his job and Truss wants to grab it, both using Ukraine.  

[Lighthouse]

You’d think if everyone else started seizing the assets of Russian billionaires and blocking travel, one of them would have little Vlad assassinated eventually.

[buctootim]

[badgerx16]

Why not throw a curve ball to de-escalate things; invite Russia to join NATO.

[Turkish]

On 11/02/2022 at 14:19, buctootim said:

Looks like one of those before and after i came of smack photos.

Edited 14 February, 2022 by Turkish

[edprice1984]

We are now getting close to the end game. I can't see the rationale for invasion as the negatives for Russia and more specifically Putin far outweigh the positives. 

Ukraine will fight tooth and nail and there will be a armed and organised resistance to Russian forces which will make the losses in Afghanistan look small. Putin (I think) is trying to scare the sh*t out of his liberal opponents while trying to firm up his support from Russian Ultra-Nationalists. If he can get some sort of declaration that the Ukraine won't entertain a NATO application for say 20 years, I think it will all calm down (for now). But then expect massive aid and assistance from the EU and the West to support Ukraine as a way to limit any future Russian political interference. 

 

[aintforever]

Is it me or has "Russia is going to invade in the next few days" been going on for about a month now?

Surely if it was going to happen it would have happened by now. Invaded Ukraine makes little sense, giving everyone a month's notice makes even less sense.

[buctootim]

57 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Is it me or has "Russia is going to invade in the next few days" been going on for about a month now?

Surely if it was going to happen it would have happened by now. Invaded Ukraine makes little sense, giving everyone a month's notice makes even less sense.

The weather in Ukraine was milder than usual, meaning mud rather than hard ground for armour. Its cold now. 

Personally I think Putin is finished either way (unless the West totally caves). If he invades and there is massive bloodshed he will be toppled. If he pulls back now he will lose credibility and he will be toppled. Already some the Generals are quietly criticising him as they think the real enemy is China, the media is less obedient than usual and Belarus are claiming its not their fault   

Edited 14 February, 2022 by buctootim

[AlexLaw76]

32 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Is it me or has "Russia is going to invade in the next few days" been going on for about a month now?

Surely if it was going to happen it would have happened by now. Invaded Ukraine makes little sense, giving everyone a month's notice makes even less sense.

That is how it works.  Russia will invade at a time that suits the Western audience.

 

[buctootim]

I've just got  marketing email from Ukrainian airlines. They're offering 15% off if I travel between today and end of March. I love a discount but cant help thinking I'd need more than 15% to go atm. 

[Lighthouse]

I know a couple of Ukrainians and I’d love to visit there one day. Probably going to wait a bit though. 
 

I do wonder how far west Russia would go if they did invade. I can see them laying claim to anything East/South of Kyiv but the western oblasts towards Lviv have historically been tied closer to Poland and Lithuania. That’d be a hard sell, even back home in mother Russia.

[buctootim]

23 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I know a couple of Ukrainians and I’d love to visit there one day. Probably going to wait a bit though. 
 

I do wonder how far west Russia would go if they did invade. I can see them laying claim to anything East/South of Kyiv but the western oblasts towards Lviv have historically been tied closer to Poland and Lithuania. That’d be a hard sell, even back home in mother Russia.

Almost nobody in Ukraine, whether ethnic Russian or Ukrainian wants to be tied to Russia. They look at how Czech Republic, Poland, the Baltics etc have developed since the fall of the USSR and they see Russia still corrupt, authoritarian and entirely reliant on gas and oil. They want a different kind of future to the one they had/ tried for 70 years.  

You should definitely go. Kyiv and Lviv are beautiful and super cheap 

   

Edited 14 February, 2022 by buctootim

[spyinthesky]

It seems that people in Ukraine are relatively relaxed about the impending invasion we are all told to expect.

I truly hope their sanguinity is well placed.

[Lighthouse]

32 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Almost nobody in Ukraine, whether ethnic Russian or Ukrainian wants to be tied to Russia. They look at how Czech Republic, Poland, the Baltics etc have developed since the fall of the USSR and they see Russia still corrupt, authoritarian and entirely reliant on gas and oil. They want a different kind of future to the one they had/ tried for 70 years.  

You should definitely go. Kyiv and Lviv are beautiful and super cheap    

They’re both on my list, although the people I know are in Kharkiv and Dnipro/Zaporizhzhya. I get your point, what I’m saying is that, regardless of the last century, Russia really doesn’t have much of a historic/ethnic claim to that part of the country, unlike parts of the South and East. 

[buctootim]

14 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

They’re both on my list, although the people I know are in Kharkiv and Dnipro/Zaporizhzhya. I get your point, what I’m saying is that, regardless of the last century, Russia really doesn’t have much of a historic/ethnic claim to that part of the country, unlike parts of the South and East. 

Thats true, agree. 

Never been to Kharkiv but I know there is a fast train there from Kyiv so pretty easy to get to. I reckon if you have friends and someone to show you around you can have a great time anywhere 

 

[aintforever]

5 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

That is how it works.  Russia will invade at a time that suits the Western audience.

 

Not sure what point you are trying to make. My point was nothing to do with suiting an audience, more that if Russia wanted to invade they would have just gone ahead and done it, it makes no sense giving Ukraine time to prepare and fly in shit loads of anti-tank missiles etc.

[Whitey Grandad]

I had a couple of day visits when we were on a cruise in 2016. One day in the Crimea and one in Odessa. We went to the Raglan Heights and saw where the Charge of the Light Brigade took place and also had a tour of Sevastopol before having lunch at Balaclava and doing a tour of what had once been a secret underground nuclear submarine repair base. 

All these are now under the control of the Russians. Sevastopol was leased to the Russians and Ukraine was grateful for the revenue. Maybe Russia got tired of paying for it and decided to take it over.

It was interesting trying to get the locals to open up when you were chatting to them. They were guarded in their responses almost as though they were still afraid that someone was listening. Our guide’s husband was a lieutenant in submarines in the Ukrainian navy and in the Soviet navy before that. She said that of the almost four hundred submarines that had been in the Soviet navy Ukraine got the worst two when the Soviet Union was dismantled.

When the Second World War ended all citizens of Sevastopol had to donate one day’s free labour every week in order to rebuild the city. She showed us an apartment block that her grandmother had helped to build by working Sundays.

Odessa was an interesting lesson in capitalism or rather the absence of it. There were half-finished apartment blocks where people could by an empty shell and then fit it out later once they had earned some money. There was no banking system that would lend them money for them to pay off over time. Good luck trying to start a business there with no capital.

[buctootim]

2 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

I had a couple of day visits when we were on a cruise in 2016. One day in the Crimea and one in Odessa. We went to the Raglan Heights and saw where the Charge of the Light Brigade took place and also had a tour of Sevastopol before having lunch at Balaclava and doing a tour of what had once been a secret underground nuclear submarine repair base. 

All these are now under the control of the Russians. Sevastopol was leased to the Russians and Ukraine was grateful for the revenue. Maybe Russia got tired of paying for it and decided to take it over.

It was interesting trying to get the locals to open up when you were chatting to them. They were guarded in their responses almost as though they were still afraid that someone was listening. Our guide’s husband was a lieutenant in submarines in the Ukrainian navy and in the Soviet navy before that. She said that of the almost four hundred submarines that had been in the Soviet navy Ukraine got the worst two when the Soviet Union was dismantled.

When the Second World War ended all citizens of Sevastopol had to donate one day’s free labour every week in order to rebuild the city. She showed us an apartment block that her grandmother had helped to build by working Sundays.

Odessa was an interesting lesson in capitalism or rather the absence of it. There were half-finished apartment blocks where people could by an empty shell and then fit it out later once they had earned some money. There was no banking system that would lend them money for them to pay off over time. Good luck trying to start a business there with no capital.

It's a fascinating region for some many reasons. I have a small collection of old Soviet watches which mark first man in space, atomic bombs, triumph of the workers, for almost every event in 20th century history there is a watch for it!

The lack of access to capital is very real. Not only is it hard to get but the interest rates are sky high - 24% pa for a mortgage in 2018 so whilst people can afford rent they cant afford to buy. I was going to a buy a flat when I working out there and rent it out after. You could buy a decent modern 1 bed flat for £25,000 and rent it out for £5,000pa - so basically have it bought for you in five years    

[Lighthouse]

I always wanted to do the Chernobyl tour although, after the excellent HBO drama a couple of years ago, it seems to have become something of a cliché. If nothing else I hope nobody engages in any fighting in that area. The last thing Europe needs is someone punching a hole in the new safe confinement or starting fires which pump a load of Caesium-137 into the atmosphere.

[Whitey Grandad]

5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I always wanted to do the Chernobyl tour although, after the excellent HBO drama a couple of years ago, it seems to have become something of a cliché. If nothing else I hope nobody engages in any fighting in that area. The last thing Europe needs is someone punching a hole in the new safe confinement or starting fires which pump a load of Caesium-137 into the atmosphere.

When that thing went up I was flying back from Denmark in a single engined aircraft at 10,000 feet. Apparently we went straight through the cloud. Oops.

[Verbal]

You know we're in for a difficult war when, as Russia sends it's entire military arsenal to the Ukraine border, the main armed-forces story in Johnson's Britain is that a senior RAF commander has been caught running starkers around his garden and mooning the neighbours.

[Saint in Paradise]

I will start by saying that I don’t trust or like Putin and his cronies for what they have and indeed continue to do so by inflicting pain and suffering upon their people. I also have reservations about how the U.S. behaves towards a lot of theirs as well but that’s another story. Having said that in spite of my dislike for Putin I can quite understand why he doesn’t want the West to allow Ukraine to join NATO. Those of us old enough can surely remember how the U.S. got so upset when Russia installed missiles in Cuba? Young people should maybe do some research about that episode for themselves?

 I read the other day that at these Winter Olympics in China Putin is alleged to have treated the Chinese leader as if he is his very best friend. Well to me I think that idea is even more stupid than when Russia trusted Germany in 1939. To me China is potentially the biggest threat to virtually every other country in the World and IMHO Putin is being extremely naive in not appearing to realise this. In Russia's best interests Putin should be making friends, or at least not open enemies, with the West. I think that in a few years time, if he continues on his present course, and then when it’s too late the Russian people will once again pay very dearly for their leaders’ stupidity.

[Jessinkalasin]

I am a bit perplexed here guys. First a question if I may. Who was right and who wrong in regards to the Cuban missile crisis?

I am sure the self professed brainiacs here will say I am over simplifying, but I am not. The fact is clear. Russia does not want the Ukraine joining NATO and then having nuclear missiles pointed at them so close, just as the USA did not want Russian missiles right on their doorstep in the 60's. 

So, why is it Russia is always seen as the bad guys when so far as I can see, the USA is and always has been far worse in just about every way. I wonder, if trump was still in charge how many of you would change your tune towards the USA foreign policy?

 

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, Jessinkalasin said:

I am a bit perplexed here guys. First a question if I may. Who was right and who wrong in regards to the Cuban missile crisis?

I am sure the self professed brainiacs here will say I am over simplifying, but I am not. The fact is clear. Russia does not want the Ukraine joining NATO and then having nuclear missiles pointed at them so close, just as the USA did not want Russian missiles right on their doorstep in the 60's. 

So, why is it Russia is always seen as the bad guys when so far as I can see, the USA is and always has been far worse in just about every way. I wonder, if trump was still in charge how many of you would change your tune towards the USA foreign policy?

 

Do you mean the 'inter continental ballistic' missiles?  The ones that can fly from the US to Russia in about 30 minutes or hit Russia from a submarine in about 10 minutes?

Not to mention the ones already situated in mainland Europe.

Seems a bit redundant to wage war on your neighbours for the sake of potentially saving a minute or two of flying time for the nukes that might end up on their doorstep.  Lots of dead bodies to not actually achieve any gains.

Securing the land to run a gas pipeline from Russia into South Eastern Europe seems like a far more sensible reason to want to occupy your neighbour though.....

[Weston Super Saint]

12 hours ago, aintforever said:

Not sure what point you are trying to make. My point was nothing to do with suiting an audience, more that if Russia wanted to invade they would have just gone ahead and done it, it makes no sense giving Ukraine time to prepare and fly in shit loads of anti-tank missiles etc.

I guess you think that Russia are able to launch a massive invasion of a neighbouring country without having any time to prepare and that no-one will notice an extraordinary amount of troops / weaponry massing on the border? They could have simply gone ahead and kept any invasion a secret so as not to allow Ukraine any time to prepare