Points from remaining game

[Dark Munster]

3 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

I'll be the first to admit that I'm shit at maths but can you explain this? 

If we have 10 game and each has a 10% chance of a win, that means that it was a 90% chance of drawing or losing.

So for that, how can you calculate the number of points we'd take (as being over 3pts)? For me, I don't feel that there's enough information as to what proportion of those 90% are likely to be draws and what are proportion are likely to be losses.

Again, I'm totally shit at maths so what is the explanation for the answer you gave of over 3pts?

See my post above. As long as the odds of a draw are greater than zero (spoiler alert: it is!) then the expected points are above 3. But unless we have the draw odds we don't know how much more.

[OttawaSaint]

3 minutes ago, Dark Munster said:

See my post above. As long as the odds of a draw are greater than zero (spoiler alert: it is!) then the expected points are above 3. But unless we have the draw odds we don't know how much more.

Ah, OK, I get it. Because the 10% of the 30pts gives 3 and anything above zero (even a 1% chance for a draw) would put that number over 3.

Phew!

[Dr Who?]

I can see us getting at least 23 points and that is with me being harsh with the results. But I know that we will win some that I am not expecting and lose a ‘banker’. 

honestly think we could hit 50 points. 

 

[SaintBobby]

1 hour ago, OttawaSaint said:

Ah, OK, I get it. Because the 10% of the 30pts gives 3 and anything above zero (even a 1% chance for a draw) would put that number over 3.

Phew!

Yep. You’ve got it. 
 

Despite CB Fry’s bizarre assertion that the chance of drawing “isn’t a f***ing thing”, actually it is.

(As those of us on Saturday witnessed!)

So, for each match, you could work out our chance of winning it. Multiply that by 3 points.

But additionally, we have a chance of drawing it - bolt that on and just work it out as a proportion of 1 point.

If every time we play Man City we have a 10% chance of winning that’s worth 0.3 points. If we also have a 20% chance of drawing that’s another 0.2 points. So, at the outset we are expecting to get 0.5 points (obviously, you actually get 3, 1 or 0…but it all averages out in the long run).

The original post had the bare bones of a good approach to calculate how many more points we will get this season. But only included points we might expect from winning games.

So far, 40% of our points have come from draws. And, despite CB Fry’s claim that this “isn’t a f***ing thing”, it’s pretty likely that we will pick up some more draws in our remaining games.

If the original poster had remembered to plug this in, he’d probably have ended up concluding that we will finish the season on about 46 points, not 41 or 42.

Because draws count. They are a thing.

 

[CB Fry]

15 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

Yep. You’ve got it. 
 

Despite CB Fry’s bizarre assertion that the chance of drawing “isn’t a f***ing thing”, actually it is.

(As those of us on Saturday witnessed!)

So, for each match, you could work out our chance of winning it. Multiply that by 3 points.

But additionally, we have a chance of drawing it - bolt that on and just work it out as a proportion of 1 point.

If every time we play Man City we have a 10% chance of winning that’s worth 0.3 points. If we also have a 20% chance of drawing that’s another 0.2 points. So, at the outset we are expecting to get 0.5 points (obviously, you actually get 3, 1 or 0…but it all averages out in the long run).

The original post had the bare bones of a good approach to calculate how many more points we will get this season. But only included points we might expect from winning games.

So far, 40% of our points have come from draws. And, despite CB Fry’s claim that this “isn’t a f***ing thing”, it’s pretty likely that we will pick up some more draws in our remaining games.

If the original poster had remembered to plug this in, he’d probably have ended up concluding that we will finish the season on about 46 points, not 41 or 42.

Because draws count. They are a thing.

 

Hahaha you f**king retard.

1.5 points from 5 tough games: assumes draws.

9 points from 5 easier games, assumes draws. 

17 points or so from 17 games, assumes draws.

Every prediction thing in the history of this forum that entails "we'll get 11 points/4 points/ 9 points from the next 4/5/7 games" assumes draws. It doesn't need spelling out.

That first post is a rudimentary prediction model that you are wanking on about like it is Newton's Law.

Clumps of clubs lumped together as 10% chance of winning, 30% chance of winning etc. Just fag packet stuff plucked out of the sky and your issue is that there isn't a "predicted draws" equation bolted onto it.

Absolute joke you plank.

I'll repeat I got it straight away. First reading, first look. Some points there, more points there, 17 points more or less. Bit pessimistic but I like it. At first viewing I knew it assumed draws and I know it still does.

Draws are in there from post one. In the points total, in every sub section.

You can crack on creating your own model if you like with your jolly exciting "expected draws" because that's all they talk about down the pub. Expected draws. f**k me.

Edited 24 January, 2022 by CB Fry

[a1ex2001]

3 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Hahaha you f**king retard.

1.5 points from 5 tough games: assumes draws.

9 points from 5 easier games, assumes draws. 

17 points or so from 17 games, assumes draws.

Every prediction thing in the history of this forum that entails "we'll get 11 points/4 points/ 9 points from the next 4/5/7 games" assumes draws. It doesn't need spelling out.

That first post is a rudimentary prediction model that you are wanking on about like it is Newton's Law.

Clumps of clubs lumped together as 10% chance of winning, 30% chance of winning etc. Just fag packet stuff plucked out of the sky and your issue is that there isn't a "predicted draws" equation bolted onto it.

Absolute joke you plank.

I'll repeat I got it straight away. First reading, first look. Some points there, more points there, 17 points more or less. Bit pessimistic but I like it. At first viewing I knew it assumed draws and I know it still does.

Draws are in there from post one. In the points total, in every sub section.

You can crack on creating your own model if you like with your jolly exciting "expected draws" because that's all they talk about down the pub. Expected draws. f**k me.

The OP proposed a flawed model for predicting our end of season points total others have proposed a better model that more accurately predict in a clearer way our likely final points tally.  Yes you could use either model and neither really achieve much but your argument doesn’t appear to rally with reality much like the OP’s model.

[CylonKing]

Finger in the air, I predict we'll get some more points this season.

☝️🤞

[SaintBobby]

Just now, CB Fry said:

Hahaha you f**king retard.

1.5 points from 5 tough games: assumes draws.

9 points from 5 easier games, assumes draws. 

17 points or so from 17 games, assumes draws.

Every prediction thing in the history of this forum that entails "we'll get 11 points/4 points/ 9 points from the next 4/5/7 games assumes draws.

It's a rudimentary prediction model that you are wanking on about like it is Newton's Law.

Clumps of clubs lumped together as 10% chance of winning, 30% chance of winning etc. Just fag packet stuff plucked out of the sky and your issue is that there isn't a "predicted draws" equation bolted onto it.

Absolute joke you plank.

I'll repeat i got it straight away. First reading, first look. Some points there, more points there, 17 points more or less. Bit pessimistic but I like it. At first viewing I knew it assumed draws and I know it still does.

Draws are in there from post one. In the points total, in every sub section.

You can crack on creating your own model if you like with your jolly exciting "expected draws" because that's all they talk about down the pub. Expected draws. f**k me.

I have no idea what you’re screaming about.

The post at the top of this thread only assumes points from wins.

This has been pointed out to you endless times and it is there in black and white in the original post. You might notice this by him using the term “chance of winning”.

If the chance of Saints winning in each of our remaining games is 50%, we are going to get more than 1.5 points per game over the season. Because we will draw some.

The original post gives that guy’s prediction of the number of points will we likely get from winning matches.

He forgot to include predicted points from drawing matches.

So, the total will be higher.

I appreciate that you consider the chance of drawing “isn’t a f***ing thing”. 

But it is.

And, in the real world, you add together the points you get from wins and draws.

So, unless you believe that the chance of drawing “isn’t a f***ing thing”, then in the real world of predictions you should add together the points you might reasonably expect from wins to those you might expect from draws.

This will give you a higher number and explains why the OP came up short - even on his own numbers. He only calculated likely returns from wins.

He didn’t factor in draws. There are likely to be some draws. You add these expected value from draws - worth 1 point each - to the expected value from wins (worth 3 points each) to get your estimated final total.

So, once again, to put it plainly…if you think our “chances of winning” at Brentford away are 50%, which the OP does, the expected value of that match isn’t just 1.5 points…you have to add on to that expected value the chance of drawing. So, probably, say, another 0.2 points or so.

To help you finally grasp this…if, instead of playing a match, a die was rolled at the start of the game, with a 1 or 2 meaning “lose”, a 3 or 4 meaning “draw” and a 5 or 6 meaning “win”, you have a 67% chance of getting some points and an expected rate of return of 1.33 points.

If you only consider the “chances of winning”, as our original poster did, you’ll put the “chances of winning” at 33% and the expected points at just 1. But that’s wrong. There’s also a chance of drawing and that boasts it to 1.33.

This oversight explains why the OP wrongly (on his own numbers) says he expects us to get fewer points per game in the remaining matches than in those already played.

This is simply because he forgot to factor in the points we might reasonably expect to get from draws.

And, whether you like it or not, draws are a thing.

 

 

 

[Dark Munster]

19 minutes ago, CylonKing said:

Finger in the air, I predict we'll get some more points this season.

☝️🤞

Yes, but how many from draws? 😜

[SaintBobby]

1 hour ago, Dark Munster said:

Yes, but how many from draws? 😜

My guess? About 5.

[CB Fry]

7 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

I have no idea what you’re screaming about.

The post at the top of this thread only assumes points from wins.

This has been pointed out to you endless times and it is there in black and white in the original post. You might notice this by him using the term “chance of winning”.

If the chance of Saints winning in each of our remaining games is 50%, we are going to get more than 1.5 points per game over the season. Because we will draw some.

The original post gives that guy’s prediction of the number of points will we likely get from winning matches.

He forgot to include predicted points from drawing matches.

So, the total will be higher.

I appreciate that you consider the chance of drawing “isn’t a f***ing thing”. 

But it is.

And, in the real world, you add together the points you get from wins and draws.

So, unless you believe that the chance of drawing “isn’t a f***ing thing”, then in the real world of predictions you should add together the points you might reasonably expect from wins to those you might expect from draws.

This will give you a higher number and explains why the OP came up short - even on his own numbers. He only calculated likely returns from wins.

He didn’t factor in draws. There are likely to be some draws. You add these expected value from draws - worth 1 point each - to the expected value from wins (worth 3 points each) to get your estimated final total.

So, once again, to put it plainly…if you think our “chances of winning” at Brentford away are 50%, which the OP does, the expected value of that match isn’t just 1.5 points…you have to add on to that expected value the chance of drawing. So, probably, say, another 0.2 points or so.

To help you finally grasp this…if, instead of playing a match, a die was rolled at the start of the game, with a 1 or 2 meaning “lose”, a 3 or 4 meaning “draw” and a 5 or 6 meaning “win”, you have a 67% chance of getting some points and an expected rate of return of 1.33 points.

If you only consider the “chances of winning”, as our original poster did, you’ll put the “chances of winning” at 33% and the expected points at just 1. But that’s wrong. There’s also a chance of drawing and that boasts it to 1.33.

This oversight explains why the OP wrongly (on his own numbers) says he expects us to get fewer points per game in the remaining matches than in those already played.

This is simply because he forgot to factor in the points we might reasonably expect to get from draws.

And, whether you like it or not, draws are a thing.

 

 

 

Well we got significantly fewer points in the second half of last season than the first, so God only knows how that makes any model wrong. Its a perfectly appropriate stance to take.

1.5 points from 5 tough games equals two draws at best, one draw at worst. Again a realistic, pragmatic prediction.

You can, if you like, do this weird routine where you pretend I am denying the existence of draws but it's there in the first post and I have referenced it multiple times.

1.5 points from 5 tough games = one or two draws. Pretty accurate prediction in my mind.

How many points have we got from the last five games against those teams?

Shall I tell you?

Two. 

From draws. As in the model shown. Easy, aint it. 

You might not like it but a % of available points is a perfectly sensible approach. 

The available points for five games = 15 points.

The available points for five games with draws added in, draws draws draws draws is....still 15 points.

We a get 10% of those points for some games, or we can get 40%.

Pretty easy to understand.

Try it.

Edited 25 January, 2022 by CB Fry

[Dr Who?]

We WON’T go down, 

We WON’T get into Europe 

We WILL 100% win some, draw some and lose some. 

There WILL be goals scored and goals conceded 

We WILL be really good some games and ok in others, to terrible in some. 

People in here WILL moan, some, but not many will be positive even when on a bad run. 

just enjoy the rest of the season for whatever happens. 

There might even be another great cup run 😃 

[SaintBobby]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

Well we got significantly fewer points in the second half of last season than the first, so God only knows how that makes any model wrong. Its a perfectly appropriate stance to take.

1.5 points from 5 tough games equals two draws at best, one draw at worst. Again a realistic, pragmatic prediction.

You can, if you like, do this weird routine where you pretend I am denying the existence of draws but it's there in the first post and I have referenced it multiple times.

1.5 points from 5 tough games = one or two draws. Pretty accurate prediction in my mind.

How many points have we got from the last five games against those teams?

Shall I tell you?

Two. 

From draws. As in the model shown. Easy, aint it. 

You might not like it but a % of available points is a perfectly sensible approach. 

The available points for five games = 15 points.

The available points for five games with draws added in, draws draws draws draws is....still 15 points.

We a get 10% of those points for some games, or we can get 40%.

Pretty easy to understand.

Try it.

It’s rather amusing for the rest of us, but you might want to stop digging. Everyone else has worked out that the original post doesn’t include draws in its modelling - just an average expected value of the points we could expect from wins.

Draws are absent from the model used, not intrinsic it to it as you inaccurately stated. Absent.

It only projects a statistical average of points we will get from the original poster’s estimated  “chance of winning”. It predicts absolutely no points at all from a chance of drawing. Zero.

Everyone else on the thread seems to have grasped this. If you reread the thread again, maybe you will. But if you want to keep digging a deeper hole, I am sure finding it amusing. So thanks.

 

[Piran]

It's funny, isn't it - well, no, it's bloody boring - how some threads get taken over by a pair of bickering pedants? We've had MLG vs. Turkish, we've had Dman vs. TWar, we've now got CB Fry vs.SaintBobby... I KNOW it's a forum, and everyone has a right to have their say, but, blimey, some people don't half go on...

[OttawaSaint]

CB Fry has made a real prat of himself in this thread. Tells you a lot about someone when they keep digging like that. 

[CB Fry]

9 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

It’s rather amusing for the rest of us, but you might want to stop digging. Everyone else has worked out that the original post doesn’t include draws in its modelling - just an average expected value of the points we could expect from wins.

Draws are absent from the model used, not intrinsic it to it as you inaccurately stated. Absent.

It only projects a statistical average of points we will get from the original poster’s estimated  “chance of winning”. It predicts absolutely no points at all from a chance of drawing. Zero.

Everyone else on the thread seems to have grasped this. If you reread the thread again, maybe you will. But if you want to keep digging a deeper hole, I am sure finding it amusing. So thanks.

 

You can't get one and a half points from five games without drawing (at least) one. Literally (numerically) a prediction of a couple of draws. 

Its a simple model taking a percentage of the available points to get to a total for the season.

You don't like it, but its a perfectly fine way of looking at it. Doesn't make it, or me, "wrong" in any way.

It's a bit of prediction fun on a forum and I thank Spyinthesky for posting it up.

It's comfortably pessimistic so is a great confidence builder.

Edited 25 January, 2022 by CB Fry

[SaintBobby]

26 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

You can't get one and a half points from five games without drawing (at least) one. Literally (numerically) a prediction of a couple of draws. 

Its a simple model taking a percentage of the available points to get to a total for the season.

You don't like it, but its a perfectly fine way of looking at it. Doesn't make it, or me, "wrong" in any way.

It's a bit of prediction fun on a forum and I thank Spyinthesky for posting it up.

It's comfortably pessimistic so is a great confidence builder.

You can’t get 1.5 points at all.

You can’t get 1.5 points from draws or from wins.

There are no decimal points available.

The expected value of a game can be to decimal points though. It reflects a percentage chance and an expected average value.

In the original post, he’s factored in the expected value of winning (a 50% chance of winning is worth 1.5…of course, you will actually end up with 3, 1 or 0…but 1.5 is the average expectation at the outset…) but he did not factor in an expected value of drawing.

One way to look at is this. You have a ticket. It is worth £300 if we beat Brentford, £100 if we draw with Brentford and £0 if we lose to Brentford.

Our chances of beating Brentford are 50%, drawing 25% and losing 25%.

What’s the market value of that ticket?

The answer is £175 (even though you can’t win £175…you can only win £300, £100 or £0).

If you said the answer was £150 that’s because you only factored in the 50% chance of winning £300 and overlooked the chance of a draw and thereby winning £100. 

That’s what the OP did on expected points. He only factored in the return to a possible win, not the return to a possible draw.

 

[CB Fry]

2 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

You can’t get 1.5 points at all.

You can’t get 1.5 points from draws or from wins.

There are no decimal points available.

The expected value of a game can be to decimal points though. It reflects a percentage chance and an expected average value.

In the original post, he’s factored in the expected value of winning (a 50% chance of winning is worth 1.5…of course, you will actually end up with 3, 1 or 0…but 1.5 is the average expectation at the outset…) but he did not factor in an expected value of drawing.

One way to look at is this. You have a ticket. It is worth £300 if we beat Brentford, £100 if we draw with Brentford and £0 if we lose to Brentford.

Our chances of beating Brentford are 50%, drawing 25% and losing 25%.

What’s the market value of that ticket?

The answer is £175 (even though you can’t win £175…you can only win £300, £100 or £0).

If you said the answer was £150 that’s because you only factored in the 50% chance of winning £300 and overlooked the chance of a draw and thereby winning £100. 

That’s what the OP did on expected points. He only factored in the return to a possible win, not the return to a possible draw.

 

Stop posting these stupid examples. I don't give a shit.

Total expected points x percentage expected to achieve = points for the second half of the season.

5 tough games, 10% of the 15 points available. Other clusters of games its forty or thirty percent. The points add up to a total which can then be achieved through wins or draws.

I got it at first glance. Its a bit pessimistic but its a perfectly fine way of looking at it.

You don't like it but that doesn't make it wrong.

[CB Fry]

7 hours ago, Piran said:

It's funny, isn't it - well, no, it's bloody boring - how some threads get taken over by a pair of bickering pedants? We've had MLG vs. Turkish, we've had Dman vs. TWar, we've now got CB Fry vs.SaintBobby... I KNOW it's a forum, and everyone has a right to have their say, but, blimey, some people don't half go on...

I'm as disappointed as you that this particular debate hasn't been (split) by the mods into its own separate thread with a comedy name. That's all I wanted and I feel let down.

[SaintBobby]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

Stop posting these stupid examples. I don't give a shit.

Total expected points x percentage expected to achieve = points for the second half of the season.

5 tough games, 10% of the 15 points available. Other clusters of games its forty or thirty percent. The points add up to a total which can then be achieved through wins or draws.

I got it at first glance. Its a bit pessimistic but its a perfectly fine way of looking at it.

You don't like it but that doesn't make it wrong.

That just isn’t what the original post says.

Sure, you can say “I’m glad he’s disregarded draws…a dose of pessimism is helpful”.

What just isn’t true is that he included draws in his analysis.

He didn’t.

 

[CB Fry]

9 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

That just isn’t what the original post says.

Sure, you can say “I’m glad he’s disregarded draws…a dose of pessimism is helpful”.

What just isn’t true is that he included draws in his analysis.

He didn’t.

 

What he did was work out the total points available and then apply a percentage, giving a total. Which at 17-and-a-bit cannot be achieved by wins alone (multiples of three) and across the various clusters of game calculated points totals (1.5,4.5) that also cannot be achieved by wins alone.

Getting 40% of a 5 game, 15 point cluster can be achieved by wins and draws.

Much like the 25 points we've got thus far this season, or the 14 points we got in the second half of last season. A combination of wins and draws. You know, like football.

As I say, I understood it at one glance from the first post.

Edited 25 January, 2022 by CB Fry

[OttawaSaint]

I heard earlier in the season that Redmond was aware of his 0.75 xG and was trying to find something to chop the ball up with and ended up missing that open goal...

[Dark Munster]

16 hours ago, Dr Who? said:

We WON’T go down, 

We WON’T get into Europe 

We WILL 100% win some, draw some and lose some. 

There WILL be goals scored and goals conceded 

We WILL be really good some games and ok in others, to terrible in some. 

People in here WILL moan, some, but not many will be positive even when on a bad run. 

just enjoy the rest of the season for whatever happens. 

There might even be another great cup run 😃 

We need a number, please.

[Sir Ralph]

.

Edited 26 January, 2022 by Sir Ralph

[farawaysaint]

I have never been as bored in my life as when I read the last 10 posts or so here.

[SaintBobby]

4 hours ago, CB Fry said:

What he did was work out the total points available and then apply a percentage, giving a total. Which at 17-and-a-bit cannot be achieved by wins alone (multiples of three) and across the various clusters of game calculated points totals (1.5,4.5) that also cannot be achieved by wins alone.

Getting 40% of a 5 game, 15 point cluster can be achieved by wins and draws.

Much like the 25 points we've got thus far this season, or the 14 points we got in the second half of last season. A combination of wins and draws. You know, like football.

As I say, I understood it at one glance from the first post.

He only applied the % chance of winning.

Yes, you can get "40% from a 15 point cluster" from wins and draws.

You can get 3 points from a 3 game cluster from (a) only draws or (b) only wins.

If you're trying to work out how many points you will actually get from a "cluster", you apply the chance that you will win and add on the chance you will draw.

He only considered the chance to win.

I understood it at one glance from the first post. He was trying to apply %s of likely outcomes to the possible points haul.

However, he left out the chance you can draw a match from his %s.

[CB Fry]

5 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

Yes, you can get "40% from a 15 point cluster" from wins and draws.

Ah, we're getting somewhere. Well done.

[Dr Who?]

6 hours ago, farawaysaint said:

I have never been as bored in my life as when I read the last 10 posts or so here.

Oh and I thought mine was groundbreaking 😉 

[Dark Munster]

19 hours ago, farawaysaint said:

I have never been as bored in my life as when I read the last 10 posts or so here.

Yes, this thread is certainly losing its draw.

[SaintBobby]

14 hours ago, CB Fry said:

Ah, we're getting somewhere. Well done.

No one denies you get points from wins and draws. We have 15 from wins so far and 10 from draws.

The issue is that original post only projected average expected points likely to accrue from wins. You would need to add on to that the points you expect to accrue from draws.

Either his "chance of winning" is wrong or his "expected points" are wrong. They can't both be right - unless you think the chance of drawing a match is 0%.

He forgot to include the possibility of draws in his projection.

That's why his predicted number of points falls short.

[spyinthesky]

An interesting debate on my original post which used details from a pal of mine who works in the betting industry.

Just to confirm every game was given a value of 3 points and a % estimation of obtaining the winning margin was assessed which can vary in relation to the expected form of Saints and their opponents.

All in all it is just a bit of fun.

[CB Fry]

9 minutes ago, spyinthesky said:

An interesting debate on my original post which used details from a pal of mine who works in the betting industry.

Just to confirm every game was given a value of 3 points and a % estimation of obtaining the winning margin was assessed which can vary in relation to the expected form of Saints and their opponents.

All in all it is just a bit of fun.

Thank you for liking my posts further up the thread when I tried to explain this 👍

Sorry to everyone else for the diversions. 

[SaintBobby]

11 minutes ago, spyinthesky said:

An interesting debate on my original post which used details from a pal of mine who works in the betting industry.

Just to confirm every game was given a value of 3 points and a % estimation of obtaining the winning margin was assessed which can vary in relation to the expected form of Saints and their opponents.

All in all it is just a bit of fun.

Is there a difference between "obtaining the winning margin" and "winning"?

[spyinthesky]

11 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

Is there a difference between "obtaining the winning margin" and "winning"?

As the man with the wooden leg said  ' It's just a matter of a pinion'🙂

 

Edited 27 January, 2022 by spyinthesky

[SaintBobby]

12 hours ago, spyinthesky said:

As the man with the wooden leg said  ' It's just a matter of a pinion'🙂

 

Cool. Looking forward to next season, I think we will obtain the winning margin in 14 league games. So, that will mean we finish on 42 points, which should be enough to stay up, I think 🤔 

[GarrettIvo]

On 25/01/2022 at 15:45, Dr Who? said:

We WON’T go down, 

People in here WILL moan, some, but not many will be positive even when on a bad run. 

just enjoy the rest of the season for whatever happens. 

There might even be another great cup run 😃 

Despite all the other shit in this shit thread full of shit posts and shit debate, THIS is the only shit that matters.

[Toadhall Saint]

4 hours ago, GarrettIvo said:

Despite all the other shit in this shit thread full of shit posts and shit debate, THIS is the only shit that matters.

No shit! 

[Fabrice Fernandes no.1 fan]

The real issue on this thread seems to be the assumption we only have a remaining game, not games plural. Is this ITK, will this winter break last longer than we realise. Edge of the seat stuff it really is

[spyinthesky]

On 20/01/2022 at 15:27, spyinthesky said:

A mate of mine shared some information on guessing point predictions based on the following detail which estimates % chance of getting a win from individual games :~
FIXTURE 
                         Total Pts.    Chances of Winning.    Est Pts.                                  Total Pts        Chances of Winning.         Est Pts     
Man City (H)                                                                                   Burnley (A)              3                            40%                                    1.2.
Spurs       (A)
Man Utd   (A)                                                                                  Brentford (A)            3                            50%                                     1.5
Chelsea   (H)
Liverpool (H)                                                                                    Everton   (H)     
                             15.                      10%.                                 1.5.            Norwich  (H)
A Villa       (A)                                                                                    Watford   (H) 
Leeds       (A)                                                                                    C Palace  (H)
Arsenal     (H)                                                                                    Newcastle (H)
Brighton   (A)                                                                                                                     15                           60%                                   9
Leicester  (A)
                            15.                      30%                                  4.5

Games                               17
Points Available                51
Expected Points               17.7            (Average 1.04 per game)
Current Points                  24              (Average 1.14 per game)
Estimated Final Points      41/42

On this basis we should be safe for another year!!                                                                                                      

Pleased to admit that the prediction of 1.5points from the 5 games against the top teams has already been exceeded by 233%

[Dark Munster]

5 hours ago, spyinthesky said:

Pleased to admit that the prediction of 1.5points from the 5 games against the top teams has already been exceeded by 233%

Only 100% so far. Draws don't count.