Turkish Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said: The schools broke up last week so that must make a difference of some sort. Given the time it takes to show symptoms, then book a test and get the results the people testing positive over the last couple of days would have become infected mid/back end of last week or weekend at the latest. We will see the impact of schools breaking up over the next week or so Edited 21 December, 2021 by Turkish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 36 minutes ago, Turkish said: Given the time it takes to show symptoms, then book a test and get the results the people testing positive over the last couple of days would have become infected mid/back end of last week or weekend at the latest. We will see the impact of schools breaking up over the next week or so according to the boffins, we should have had 500k cases today, and around 1m by xmas day. fOlloW thE sCiEncE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 1 hour ago, hackedoff said: Corbyn would have been even more of a disaster. This is what happens when there is no credible alternative. Look at Drakeford in Wales, his miserable little face has seen people out having fun enjoying their lives and we can't have that can we, fines for people going to work "who could work from home" I've heard it all now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 33 minutes ago, JRM said: Look at Drakeford in Wales, his miserable little face has seen people out having fun enjoying their lives and we can't have that can we, fines for people going to work "who could work from home" I've heard it all now. That work from home or be fine stance is outrageous. I've interpreted the if you "can" work from home to mean that we can't work from home effectively, so we go to work. If we implement this, that can't happen. That decision feels like a step towards lockdown by stealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 49 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: according to the boffins, we should have had 500k cases today, and around 1m by xmas day. fOlloW thE sCiEncE You do understand that there's a difference between prediction modelling, based on mathematical algorithms, worst case scenarios etc. etc. and what is ACTUALLY likely to happen? Scientists are making their best estimates on a strain of virus which wasn't even heard of about a month ago. You seem to be one of the very few people continuously posting their astonishment about these figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 6 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: You do understand that there's a difference between prediction modelling, based on mathematical algorithms, worst case scenarios etc. etc. and what is ACTUALLY likely to happen? Scientists are making their best estimates on a strain of virus which wasn't even heard of about a month ago. You seem to be one of the very few people continuously posting their astonishment about these figures. "Best estimates " hahaha best shocking numbers for the headlines and policy makers yes, but not for much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 MLT touting himself for Christmas messages. Can you get him to ask a loved one to get vaccinated? How principled is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: You do understand that there's a difference between prediction modelling, based on mathematical algorithms, worst case scenarios etc. etc. and what is ACTUALLY likely to happen? Scientists are making their best estimates on a strain of virus which wasn't even heard of about a month ago. You seem to be one of the very few people continuously posting their astonishment about these figures. In the summer Ferguson, the same guy who advised the government to lock down then went against his own recommendations so he could bang his mistress predicted at least 100k possibly 200k infections a day when all restrictions were lifted in the summer. Now we’re being told 1m a day by Christmas and we are no where near. Why do you think these “experts” are always wildly out with their modelling? Here’s a clue it’s never wildly under is it, always way, way over what the reality is. Edited 21 December, 2021 by Turkish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 1 hour ago, JRM said: Look at Drakeford in Wales, his miserable little face has seen people out having fun enjoying their lives and we can't have that can we, fines for people going to work "who could work from home" I've heard it all now. Drakeford does look like the most boring bastard on the planet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 3 minutes ago, Turkish said: In the summer Ferguson, the same guy who advised the government to lock down then went against his own recommendations so he could bang his mistress predicted at least 100k possibly 200k infections a day when all restrictions were lifted in the summer. Now we’re being told 1m a day by Christmas and we are no where near. Why do you think these “experts” are always wildly out with their modelling? Here’s a clue it’s never wildly under is it, always way, way over what the reality is. Are they, or are those just the figures the media use to make sensational headlines? I'm sure they've modeled dozens, maybe hundreds of different parameters and possibilities. Nobody is hanging their hat on these predictions. We've been asked to wear masks in indoor venues and get a booster jab, which so far seems to have done a pretty good job at containing the variant. Hardly 'batten down the hatches' is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 7 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: Are they, or are those just the figures the media use to make sensational headlines? I'm sure they've modeled dozens, maybe hundreds of different parameters and possibilities. Nobody is hanging their hat on these predictions. We've been asked to wear masks in indoor venues and get a booster jab, which so far seems to have done a pretty good job at containing the variant. Hardly 'batten down the hatches' is it? Have a read of this https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hackedoff Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 31 minutes ago, whelk said: Drakeford does look like the most boring bastard on the planet. Cut off his gas and electricity on Christmas morning just after his turkey goes in the oven. When he moans,just say that nobody is available to leave home to maintain the supply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 16 minutes ago, Turkish said: Have a read of this https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee It says it black and white in the first paragraph, "envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get." That’s basically my point. Of course the government asks them to model worst case scenarios, why wouldn’t they. You don’t need a plan of action for the, "yeah, well basically it’s mild but fairly infectious and admissions sort of tail off." You need to know what could happen IF we start getting 100k, 200k or a million infections per day. I repeat, it’s not like we’ve taken these worst case scenarios and locked everyone in their homes. Cases are rising - wear masks, get jabbed, work from home if at all possible. It’s proportionate to the rise in cases we’ve experienced so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 14 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: It says it black and white in the first paragraph, "envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get." That’s basically my point. Of course the government asks them to model worst case scenarios, why wouldn’t they. You don’t need a plan of action for the, "yeah, well basically it’s mild but fairly infectious and admissions sort of tail off." You need to know what could happen IF we start getting 100k, 200k or a million infections per day. I repeat, it’s not like we’ve taken these worst case scenarios and locked everyone in their homes. Cases are rising - wear masks, get jabbed, work from home if at all possible. It’s proportionate to the rise in cases we’ve experienced so far. Yet in their “planning” and rhetoric all we’ve heard about is worst case scenarios with this data used as back up. All other possible scenarios not mentioned or dismissed as too early to tell. Even our health minister was telling us there were already 200,000 cases a day just over a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 I don’t understand as many on here told me the vaccine does fuck all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 5 minutes ago, whelk said: I don’t understand as many on here told me the vaccine does fuck all So they’re saying omicron may have peaked already now? 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 Just now, Turkish said: So they’re saying omicron may have peaked already now? 😂 Don’t tell Nicola Sturgeon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weston Super Saint Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 5 minutes ago, Turkish said: So they’re saying omicron may have peaked already now? 😂 Trust the experts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 13 minutes ago, whelk said: I don’t understand as many on here told me the vaccine does fuck all https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/christmas-cancelled-gibraltar-vaccinations-b966816.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiberalCommunist Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 (edited) Click your heels and follow the science...... Edited 21 December, 2021 by LiberalCommunist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Kent Saint Posted 21 December, 2021 Share Posted 21 December, 2021 I heard that they look at 3 different models , best middle and worst case possibilities . I suspect the everyone has a booster case looks not so bad so Boris is going for that !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_lambden Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 He was never going to 'cancel' Christmas two years in a row, especially with just a few days' notice. He's tanking in the polls already and doing that again would have been the final straw for many, especially in his own party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry the Badger Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 hour ago, Saint_lambden said: He was never going to 'cancel' Christmas two years in a row, especially with just a few days' notice. He's tanking in the polls already and doing that again would have been the final straw for many, especially in his own party. For once I actually think he's doing the right thing. It would've been wrong to introduce a lockdown based on worst case scenarios, given that we know how hard lockdown impacts people, mental health and businesses (probably even more so at Christmas). Seems like a genuinely sensible approach to keep a close eye on the stats and wait and see this time, then react quickly if it does actually seem like hospitalisations are increasing (the national stats show no signs of this yet). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
washsaint Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 At some stage the world needs to get on living (cue the hysterical tarts with 'one life lost is too many') and learn to live with this virus. Existing is not living and the amount of collateral damage caused by Europe's continual lock downs cannot be underestimated. The NHS has not been fit for purpose for decades and needs a radical overhaul. All the stats from South Africa showed that Omicron was a far milder variation and so the hysterical 1 million cases a day reporting simply was ludicrous and self-defeating. Days of the British and the stiff upper lip and and just getting on with things seems to have long passed (unfortunately). 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 56 minutes ago, Barry the Badger said: For once I actually think he's doing the right thing. It would've been wrong to introduce a lockdown based on worst case scenarios, given that we know how hard lockdown impacts people, mental health and businesses (probably even more so at Christmas). Seems like a genuinely sensible approach to keep a close eye on the stats and wait and see this time, then react quickly if it does actually seem like hospitalisations are increasing (the national stats show no signs of this yet). I bet you if public opinion was that the majority was in favour he'd have done it by now. He's only interested in self preservation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 shock horror Covid latest news: Omicron variant causing milder disease than delta in most Britons, first official report finds (telegraph.co.uk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 3 minutes ago, Turkish said: shock horror Covid latest news: Omicron variant causing milder disease than delta in most Britons, first official report finds (telegraph.co.uk) Did you read this part of the article or only the headline...? "While omicron seems milder overall, the UKHSA has found it is not necessarily mild enough to avoid large numbers of hospitalisations. The experts have found evidence that for those who do become severely ill, there is still a high chance of hospitalisation and death. Given that the transmissibility of omicron is very high, there is the chance that even though it is milder, infections could soar to the point that large numbers end up in hospital." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_lambden Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 hour ago, Barry the Badger said: For once I actually think he's doing the right thing. It would've been wrong to introduce a lockdown based on worst case scenarios, given that we know how hard lockdown impacts people, mental health and businesses (probably even more so at Christmas). Seems like a genuinely sensible approach to keep a close eye on the stats and wait and see this time, then react quickly if it does actually seem like hospitalisations are increasing (the national stats show no signs of this yet). I agree that it's the correct decision at the moment and the current restrictions are about the right balance, even if the messaging has created a lockdown by stealth. The biggest spike appears to be London which is not coincidental considering their relatively low vaccine uptake compared with the rest of the country. 9/10 of those in ICU in South London are unvaccinated which begs the question quite how long we can continue to throw a protective blanket (restrictions) over these people for their decision to not get protected (as much as is possible) via jabs. I'm not saying don't treat them if they become ill because that's opening up a huge can of worms that people then could argue could the same for treating lung cancer in smokers, heart attacks in obese people etc. or that we should segregate them, but something has to eventually break the chain of twice-yearly lockdown in reaction to new variants. Hopefully vaccines which are configured based upon numerous variants rather than the original strain that we are using currently - in the form of an annual booster programme - and placing a heavier reliance on life-preserving medicine proves to be the answer in time to getting back to 'normal' for good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 3 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said: Did you read this part of the article or only the headline...? "While omicron seems milder overall, the UKHSA has found it is not necessarily mild enough to avoid large numbers of hospitalisations. The experts have found evidence that for those who do become severely ill, there is still a high chance of hospitalisation and death. Given that the transmissibility of omicron is very high, there is the chance that even though it is milder, infections could soar to the point that large numbers end up in hospital." Have you read a lot of the evidence or just what you wanted to read in that article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 Just now, Turkish said: Have you read a lot of the evidence or just what you wanted to read in that article? I read the whole article, it appears you didn't. What are your thoughts on the section of the article I highlighted? That bit doesn't match your viewpoint does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 Just now, Matthew Le God said: I read the whole article, it appears you didn't. What are your thoughts on the section of the article I highlighted? That bit doesn't match your viewpoint does it? I read it and It also doesn't match the evidence or logic that we are seeing from elsewhere, but i've already discussed that on this thread so cant be arsed to repeat myself and do it again with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 minute ago, Turkish said: I read it and It also doesn't match the evidence or logic that we are seeing from elsewhere, but i've already discussed that on this thread so cant be arsed to repeat myself and do it again with you. So you are cherry picking from the Telegraph article. Cherry picking appears to be a hobby of yours. 🍒 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 minute ago, Matthew Le God said: So you are cherry picking from the Telegraph article. Cherry picking appears to be a hobby of yours. 🍒 Which is what you did by only showing the bits you copy and pasted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 minute ago, Turkish said: Which is what you did by only showing the bits you copy and pasted You are very confused as to what cherry picking means. My post's sole purpose was to highlight you only read the headline and and not the content. I made no claim the bit I highlighted was the only information to take from the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 2 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said: You are very confused as to what cherry picking means. My post's sole purpose was to highlight you only read the headline and and not the content. I made no claim the bit I highlighted was the only information to take from the article. Yet again you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piran Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 Couldn't you two get a room? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 Just now, Piran said: Couldn't you two get a room? He's obsessed with me mate, followed me round for years. He gets particularly obsessive when he's been made to look ridiculous about something which he has been recently, hence why he's responding to pretty much every post i make at the moment. It's very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 8 minutes ago, Turkish said: Yet again you are wrong. You think I'm wrong about the purpose of my own post. You are just being absurd now! 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 Just now, Matthew Le God said: You think I'm wrong about the purpose of my own post. You are just being absurd now! 🙄 Your whole purpose of the post was because you think i didn't read the whole article, you are wrong about something you completely made that up in your head and have banged on about it for 30 minutes, who is being absurd?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodles34 Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 (edited) The facts are presently that this variant has been massively overstated, and if we are dealing with ‘ifs and buts’ then surely we should lockdown in case the next one really is bad. Otherwise, we should just carry on taking the sensible precautions in that fir our own personal agendas. It’s quite simple. Edited 22 December, 2021 by Noodles34 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodles34 Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said: Did you read this part of the article or only the headline...? "While omicron seems milder overall, the UKHSA has found it is not necessarily mild enough to avoid large numbers of hospitalisations. The experts have found evidence that for those who do become severely ill, there is still a high chance of hospitalisation and death. Given that the transmissibility of omicron is very high, there is the chance that even though it is milder, infections could soar to the point that large numbers end up in hospital." But that’s not happening is it? The numbers aren’t increasing whatsoever. At what point do we call this variant as what it is, pretty much a flu virus. So if it kills less than 20k, then it’s actually safer than the annual winter flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Kent Saint Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 1 hour ago, Turkish said: shock horror Covid latest news: Omicron variant causing milder disease than delta in most Britons, first official report finds (telegraph.co.uk) The Borisgraph , as reliable as internet nutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 6 minutes ago, East Kent Saint said: The Borisgraph , as reliable as internet nutters Are you suggesting it is not a mild illness, generally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 3 hours ago, Barry the Badger said: For once I actually think he's doing the right thing. It would've been wrong to introduce a lockdown based on worst case scenarios, given that we know how hard lockdown impacts people, mental health and businesses (probably even more so at Christmas). Seems like a genuinely sensible approach to keep a close eye on the stats and wait and see this time, then react quickly if it does actually seem like hospitalisations are increasing (the national stats show no signs of this yet). Agree with this. I hate the scruffy fat cunt with a passion but we were right to take precautionary measures until more was known about the virus. Not sure why anyone is wetting their pants over it, we can still go out and get pissed up and go to a football match/nightclub/strip club whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 2 minutes ago, aintforever said: Agree with this. I hate the scruffy fat cunt with a passion but we were right to take precautionary measures until more was known about the virus. Not sure why anyone is wetting their pants over it, we can still go out and get pissed up and go to a football match/nightclub/strip club whatever. unless you own one of these businesses, or rely on an income from them? At least the PM has not gone full lunatic, like they have in Wales and Scotland (and what Labour demand right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, aintforever said: Agree with this. I hate the scruffy fat cunt with a passion but we were right to take precautionary measures until more was known about the virus. Not sure why anyone is wetting their pants over it, we can still go out and get pissed up and go to a football match/nightclub/strip club whatever. Nobody is, we are simply pointing out what utter bollocks the modelling and doom mongering was, which was blindingly obvious from the very start. Unlike you some people on here dont suck up all they read and actually give an opinion on things. Edited 22 December, 2021 by Turkish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 3 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: unless you own one of these businesses, or rely on an income from them? At least the PM has not gone full lunatic, like they have in Wales and Scotland (and what Labour demand right now) It's always a balancing act and we are still yet to see how many hospitalisations the NHS will have to deal with but the priority has to be health and the NHS. The government just need to make sure decent compensation is available to businesses effected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 Just now, aintforever said: It's always a balancing act and we are still yet to see how many hospitalisations the NHS will have to deal with but the priority has to be health and the NHS. The government just need to make sure decent compensation is available to businesses effected. What will be proved is that this has been a massive over-reaction. As told to us my numerous experts around the world. Hopefully, when this comes into play, it will end this charade. What they are doing in Wales and Scotland, I have no idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Turkish said: Nobody is, we are simply pointing out what utter bollocks the modelling and doom mongering was, which was blindingly obvious from the very start. Unlike you some people on here dont suck up all they read and actually give an opinion on things. They have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, most sensible people understood what the modelling is for. Problem is they do the worst case modelling (which they have to do), the media pick up on it and make sensationalist headlines with some scary graphics and some people don't understand the context, and either shit them selves or think it's some big conspiracy. Edited 22 December, 2021 by aintforever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mystic Force Posted 22 December, 2021 Share Posted 22 December, 2021 So i take it we are no longer worrying about any football being played anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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