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COVID and Football (Merged)


Chris cooper
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2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Someone is saying they’ve dropped three days in a row, as if that’s proof of something. It isn’t. They aren’t doubling right now, which is obviously good news, but they are up 67% on last Sunday, which is less good.

Well, positive tests are up certainly, whether that actually means there's more covid out there is debatable.

16th November - Tests taken 807,598, positive tests 45,444 (5.6% of tests positive)

16th December - Tests taken 1,598,910, positive tests 76,329 (4.7% of tests positive)

Cases in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

You could argue that more people are taking tests because there are more people with symptoms, but equally it could be people taking tests ahead of travelling for christmas, or driven by the fear over omicron. 

I'm not convinced that the cases hitting record highs is a sign of there being more covid out there, just of people panicking and taking tests (or at least that's a major factor)

Edited by Barry the Badger
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2 hours ago, Streaky said:

My mum died of cancer last year, her death certificate said cause of death coronavirus. As they weren't doing autopsies then. No idea if they are now. 

Sounds similar to my case with elderly relative, it's sad but how many other cases are like it makes me wonder. 

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1 minute ago, Turkish said:

 

havent they removed natural immunity as part of their covid passport?

also according to this omicron avoids natural immunity 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/

making it up as they go

Think being previously infected doesn’t stop you catching it but makes serious illness less likely. This is why they are not sure yet wether the virus itself is milder or just that the high amounts of SA people who have already had it in previous waves makes it seem milder.

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Just now, aintforever said:

Think being previously infected doesn’t stop you catching it but makes serious illness less likely. This is why they are not sure yet wether the virus itself is milder or just that the high amounts of SA people who have already had it in previous waves makes it seem milder.

So why would that be the case on SA but not the UK?

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1 minute ago, Turkish said:

So why would that be the case on SA but not the UK?

Different countries have different amounts of people who have been exposed. The article I read was American and it said SA had more people infected in the previous waves so their concern is that in the US there was a large amount of people who have had no exposure  and are not vaccinated. As it is so contagious it will find them. 

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5 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Different countries have different amounts of people who have been exposed. The article I read was American and it said SA had more people infected in the previous waves so their concern is that in the US there was a large amount of people who have had no exposure  and are not vaccinated. As it is so contagious it will find them. 

SA is about 10% smaller in population than the UK but has had 7m less infections. They also only have around 35% of the population double vaccinated. So why would it be different here? More than 3 times the infections and a far higher vaccination take up. If anything it should be even more mild than there. Simple logic tells you that 

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9 minutes ago, Turkish said:

SA is about 10% smaller in population than the UK but has had 7m less infections. They also only have around 35% of the population double vaccinated. So why would it be different here? More than 3 times the infections and a far higher vaccination take up. If anything it should be even more mild than there. Simple logic tells you that 

This is what the article said, as I said it’s American but the principle is the same just different numbers:

As a country, South Africa had already gone through three massive COVID surges, as vaccination rates there remained low, compared to the U.S. and Europe.

So, while only about a quarter of South Africans had been vaccinated when omicron finally arrived, the vast majority of residents had likely already been infected with previous variants of SARS-CoV-2. (Scientists have predicted this based on the excess mortality rate observed in the country through the pandemic.) Given this history, scientists say most South Africans already probably had some level of immune protection generated by these prior infections.

"Thus, omicron enters a South African population with considerably more immunity than any prior SARS-CoV-2 variant," concluded Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya, an infectious disease specialist, and epidemiologist William Hanage in a recent paper published online.

In other words, there are very few South Africans who have never been exposed to the coronavirus — either through a vaccine or a natural infection.

That means the omicron infections happening in South Africa aren't, for the most part, primary infections, but rather secondary infections, also known as reinfections.

Here's the thing about secondary infections from SARS-C0V-2: They tend, on average, to be milder, scientists have found. For example, a study published last month in the New England Journal of Medicine found that if you survive the first infection, it reduces the risk of severe illness from a second infection by about 90%.

And thus, even before omicron hit South Africa, the population as a whole had built up a significant amount of immunity to COVID-19. A large proportion of people who were once — early in the pandemic — at high risk for severe disease, are now probably at a lower risk.

This background level of immunity within a population muddies the water when trying to figure out if omicron causes more mild illness, according to Ryan Noach and his colleagues at Discovery Health. Given South Africa's current level of immunity, you would expect more mild illness – even if the omicron variant is actually just as dangerous as its predecessors.

To put it another way, this background immunity only makes omicron appear less harmful. But what happens when omicron makes its way into a population without that background level of immunity?

Bhattacharyya and Hanagepoint out another confounding factor: it's still early days. During the initial stages of a surge, the lag between cases and hospitalizations can make a new variant seem less severe — especially if the variant is also spreading much faster than previous variants, as omicron is doing now.

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6 minutes ago, aintforever said:

This is what the article said, as I said it’s American but the principle is the same just different numbers:

As a country, South Africa had already gone through three massive COVID surges, as vaccination rates there remained low, compared to the U.S. and Europe.

So, while only about a quarter of South Africans had been vaccinated when omicron finally arrived, the vast majority of residents had likely already been infected with previous variants of SARS-CoV-2. (Scientists have predicted this based on the excess mortality rate observed in the country through the pandemic.) Given this history, scientists say most South Africans already probably had some level of immune protection generated by these prior infections.

"Thus, omicron enters a South African population with considerably more immunity than any prior SARS-CoV-2 variant," concluded Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya, an infectious disease specialist, and epidemiologist William Hanage in a recent paper published online.

In other words, there are very few South Africans who have never been exposed to the coronavirus — either through a vaccine or a natural infection.

That means the omicron infections happening in South Africa aren't, for the most part, primary infections, but rather secondary infections, also known as reinfections.

Here's the thing about secondary infections from SARS-C0V-2: They tend, on average, to be milder, scientists have found. For example, a study published last month in the New England Journal of Medicine found that if you survive the first infection, it reduces the risk of severe illness from a second infection by about 90%.

And thus, even before omicron hit South Africa, the population as a whole had built up a significant amount of immunity to COVID-19. A large proportion of people who were once — early in the pandemic — at high risk for severe disease, are now probably at a lower risk.

This background level of immunity within a population muddies the water when trying to figure out if omicron causes more mild illness, according to Ryan Noach and his colleagues at Discovery Health. Given South Africa's current level of immunity, you would expect more mild illness – even if the omicron variant is actually just as dangerous as its predecessors.

To put it another way, this background immunity only makes omicron appear less harmful. But what happens when omicron makes its way into a population without that background level of immunity?

Bhattacharyya and Hanagepoint out another confounding factor: it's still early days. During the initial stages of a surge, the lag between cases and hospitalizations can make a new variant seem less severe — especially if the variant is also spreading much faster than previous variants, as omicron is doing now.

SA has c5% of the population having already had covid UK has c16%. In theory UK should have great natural immunity from previous covid waves.

 SA has c35% of the country double vaccinated UK has 81% with 48% now on their third jab. Uk should have higher immunity from vaccine also.

so why would people infected in SA have mild symptoms due to these things but UK won’t? I believe it’s what some might say, is not rocket science. 

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6 minutes ago, Turkish said:

SA has c5% of the population having already had covid UK has c16%. In theory UK should have great natural immunity from previous covid waves.

 SA has c35% of the country double vaccinated UK has 81% with 48% now on their third jab. Uk should have higher immunity from vaccine also.

so why would people infected in SA have mild symptoms due to these things but UK won’t? I believe it’s what some might say, is not rocket science. 

We have an older and more obese population though, but that's balanced by a better health service plus we have captain Tom's £33,000,000 in our back pocket if needed to buy supplies. 

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8 hours ago, JRM said:

We have an older and more obese population though, but that's balanced by a better health service plus we have captain Tom's £33,000,000 in our back pocket if needed to buy supplies. 

It seems like there isn’t a lot in it when it comes to obesity 

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-09-19-obesity-crisis-threatens-south-africas-health-system/

https://www.healthexpress.co.uk/obesity/uk-statistics

half of South Africans and 60% of UK.

we also need to remember covid 19 has been  accused of being racist is the past with a much bigger impact on the BAME community, although we’re not allowed to mention it surely with a much higher percentage of black people in SA this would balance out the age factor. 

 

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10 hours ago, Turkish said:

SA has c5% of the population having already had covid UK has c16%. In theory UK should have great natural immunity from previous covid waves.

 SA has c35% of the country double vaccinated UK has 81% with 48% now on their third jab. Uk should have higher immunity from vaccine also.

so why would people infected in SA have mild symptoms due to these things but UK won’t? I believe it’s what some might say, is not rocket science. 

For the same reason that if Saints draw against Man City & West Ham then it should have been a walkover v Norwich.

In plain English, there are far too many individual, social and environmental variables at play than the simple statistics that you have drawn upon.

Edited by Charlie Wayman
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10 hours ago, Turkish said:

SA has c5% of the population having already had covid UK has c16%. In theory UK should have great natural immunity from previous covid waves.

 SA has c35% of the country double vaccinated UK has 81% with 48% now on their third jab. Uk should have higher immunity from vaccine also.

so why would people infected in SA have mild symptoms due to these things but UK won’t? I believe it’s what some might say, is not rocket science. 

According to infectious disease specialist Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya and epidemiologist William Hanage that's not right. Maybe you should email them to let them know the findings of your research.

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16 minutes ago, aintforever said:

According to infectious disease specialist Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya and epidemiologist William Hanage that's not right. Maybe you should email them to let them know the findings of your research.

 

According to the World Health Organisation it is.

South Africa: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data | WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data

The United Kingdom: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data | WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data

Maybe you should contact the WHO to tell them they are wrong, afterall you would know, you read an article about it.

 

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37 minutes ago, Charlie Wayman said:

For the same reason that if Saints draw against Man City & West Ham then it should have been a walkover v Norwich.

In plain English, there are far too many individual, social and environmental variables at play than the simple statistics that you have drawn upon.

exactly, we are not a country with lots of TB, AIDS, HIV and terrible vaccination rates.

I get your point.

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3 minutes ago, Turkish said:

It's not my research, I'm guessing confirmed cases is different to actual cases, the more a country tests the more confirmed cases there are.

The point of the article is that each country will have to work out how the virus could possibly effect their populations, that's obviously what SAGE are doing now and why they are taking precautionary measures until they know more.

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52 minutes ago, aintforever said:

It's not my research, I'm guessing confirmed cases is different to actual cases, the more a country tests the more confirmed cases there are.

The point of the article is that each country will have to work out how the virus could possibly effect their populations, that's obviously what SAGE are doing now and why they are taking precautionary measures until they know more.

It wasn't my research either, it's all there on the WHO website, anyone can view it. Does logic not tell you that if natural immunity and vaccinations are indeed a thing, as Savid seems to day and we have a much higher percentage of both then we should see lower or worst case similar impact in terms of severity? Also lets not forget for the first year or so of this pandemic UK testing was absolutely shambolic so there is likely to be far more cases than recorded here as well, along with people who had it without even knowing. 

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23 minutes ago, Turkish said:

It wasn't my research either, it's all there on the WHO website, anyone can view it. Does logic not tell you that if natural immunity and vaccinations are indeed a thing, as Savid seems to day and we have a much higher percentage of both then we should see lower or worst case similar impact in terms of severity? Also lets not forget for the first year or so of this pandemic UK testing was absolutely shambolic so there is likely to be far more cases than recorded here as well, along with people who had it without even knowing. 

What, the WHO website that also says: "Countries should continue to implement the effective public health measures to reduce COVID-19 circulation overall, using a risk analysis and science-based approachThey should increase some public health and medical capacities to manage an increase in cases. "

I'm pretty sure that's what Bozo is doing.

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3 minutes ago, aintforever said:

What, the WHO website that also says: "Countries should continue to implement the effective public health measures to reduce COVID-19 circulation overall, using a risk analysis and science-based approachThey should increase some public health and medical capacities to manage an increase in cases. "

I'm pretty sure that's what Bozo is doing.

What has that got to do with anything i said? All you've done there is copy and paste and state the bleeding obvious. Well done.

Think very slowly before you answer this question.

Do you believe the vaccines are working against serious infections?
 

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Tested positive for an unknown variant of Covid at the end of November (an early Christmas present from my daughter, bless her, and just before I became eligible for the booster jab).  I'm a fit 43-year-old, but have to say, it's been an unpleasant experience.  Main issues have been headaches and fatigue, plus complete loss of taste and smell. I'm definitely feeling better now, but haven't got my senses back (irritating to say the least) and been really tired after attempting anything physical.  Christmas is coming at a good time and hoping that a nice relaxing break will see me good for the start of the year.

I personally support anything reasonable to stop this crap raging through the country and am lucky to have a good home life, so don't really care if I can't go shopping or attend games if it means that our health service stands a chance of operating the way it should.  I'll definitely be raising a glass to people working hard over the holidays to keep our country going.

Really hoping life can get back to normality from the Spring though and will take whatever boosters people far cleverer / qualified than me tell me to!

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On 18/12/2021 at 19:46, hackedoff said:

Why would driving an electric car or having a gas boiler effect the NHS ? 

I think this is a very good point to bring up. Air pollution, last year, killed roughly the same people as covid in Bristol. Around 300 people. So that's lots of people in hospital for BOTH reasons. Yet we don't angrily damn the diesel car/ van drivers who are essentially causing this. We accept its a personal choice. 

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16 minutes ago, JustinR said:

I think this is a very good point to bring up. Air pollution, last year, killed roughly the same people as covid in Bristol. Around 300 people. So that's lots of people in hospital for BOTH reasons. Yet we don't angrily damn the diesel car/ van drivers who are essentially causing this. We accept its a personal choice. 

Ah right, so there’s a ten minute vaccine which cuts all vehicle emissions by 90%, which people are refusing to take?

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19 hours ago, Tamesaint said:

The Lib Dems are also the only party to oppose Brexit.

It is amazing how, following your logic, a Leave voting area such as North Shropshire gave such a big V sign to Brexit. 

But didn't that area vote Tory in the last (brexit) election? With a 22 thousand majority?

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29 minutes ago, JustinR said:

I think this is a very good point to bring up. Air pollution, last year, killed roughly the same people as covid in Bristol. Around 300 people. So that's lots of people in hospital for BOTH reasons. Yet we don't angrily damn the diesel car/ van drivers who are essentially causing this. We accept its a personal choice. 

Apparently log burners , even the newest EU reg ones , produce 47% more micro particles that can cause cancer than diesel HGVs , petrol engines produce less than half that of diesel engines. This is from a worldwide ongoing study of the urban environment .

These micro particles are so small they are absorbed into the body and stay in all your organs .

so much for the falsehood of carbon neutral log burners , which is a myth anyway unless you are burning home grown wood yourself. Apparently log burners also polute the inside of your house as well.

 

Edited by East Kent Saint
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32 minutes ago, Turkish said:

What has that got to do with anything i said? All you've done there is copy and paste and state the bleeding obvious. Well done.

Think very slowly before you answer this question.

Do you believe the vaccines are working against serious infections?
 

How well two vaccines can stop serious illness is obviously one of the things SAGE are working out, it looks like they help make illness less severe which is great. But this variant has a huge ability to bypass immune protection and cause breakthrough infections and as it spreads way faster it will reach more vulnerable people quicker, it's right we are taking precations while SAGE works out the risks.

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8 minutes ago, aintforever said:

How well two vaccines can stop serious illness is obviously one of the things SAGE are working out, it looks like they help make illness less severe which is great. But this variant has a huge ability to bypass immune protection and cause breakthrough infections and as it spreads way faster it will reach more vulnerable people quicker, it's right we are taking precations while SAGE works out the risks.

Okay so you believe that the vaccines are working. So next question if they’re working then which country is likely to have fewer serious infections. One where 36% of the population are vaccinated or one where 80% are vaccinated?

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3 hours ago, Turkish said:

Okay so you believe that the vaccines are working. So next question if they’re working then which country is likely to have fewer serious infections. One where 36% of the population are vaccinated or one where 80% are vaccinated?

I would email Chris Whitty or an epidemiologist if you want to know more about it if I were you. There are obviously a lot of factors involved such as age of population, geography of the country, previous exposure and effectiveness of vaccines. It should become clearer in the next couple of weeks or so.

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24 minutes ago, aintforever said:

I would email Chris Whitty or an epidemiologist if you want to know more about it if I were you. There are obviously a lot of factors involved such as age of population, geography of the country, previous exposure and effectiveness of vaccines. It should become clearer in the next couple of weeks or so.

Im asking you pal, come on, give us your view for once. If vaccines work and one country has more than double the vaccinations of another against the same thing, what is the likely scenario? Or maybe for some people it is rocket science……

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11 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Omicron cases down by 1/3 today compared to sunday, fewer than saturday as well thought it was meant to be doubling every day? 

8,044 new Omicron COVID cases reported - a third down on yesterday (msn.com)

No , doubling every 2 days , today Rabb said doubling every 2-3 days ! but he also makes things up 😀
It is difficult to compare different countries as they all use different criteria to produce their stats. 
Boris making no decision , yet ……

Edited by East Kent Saint
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55 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Omicron cases down by 1/3 today compared to sunday, fewer than saturday as well thought it was meant to be doubling every day? 

8,044 new Omicron COVID cases reported - a third down on yesterday (msn.com)

strange.  Last week SAGE stated that cases were doubling every 1.9 days (ridiculous, we now know)

 

Edited by AlexLaw76
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4 minutes ago, Barry the Badger said:

Once again they fail to report on how many tests gave that result, making it impossible to know whether the prevalence seems to be going up or down. # of cases is a somewhat useless stat on it's own, so it annoys me that everybody continues to cling to it. 

First week of November there were around 800,000 tests a day with c35k a day infection on average i the last week it’s 1.4m tests a day 

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4 minutes ago, Barry the Badger said:

Once again they fail to report on how many tests gave that result, making it impossible to know whether the prevalence seems to be going up or down. # of cases is a somewhat useless stat on it's own, so it annoys me that everybody continues to cling to it. 

There are some extensive figures here but digging out the details is not easy.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

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1 hour ago, East Kent Saint said:

No , doubling every 2 days , today Rabb said doubling every 2-3 days ! but he also makes things up 😀
It is difficult to compare different countries as they all use different criteria to produce their stats. 
Boris making no decision , yet ……

He made himself look an absolute knob on GMB this morning. 

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13 minutes ago, LiberalCommunist said:

The government need the Omicron to spread more efficiently, before people start catching on. 

 

Any chance of a better variant in the coming days to ramp up the fear? No, okay, lets start living again now.......

 

Still dangling the threat of restrictions over Christmas and new year to get people to have needles in their arms aren’t they. Tossers

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2 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Still dangling the threat of restrictions over Christmas and new year to get people to have needles in their arms aren’t they. Tossers

I see the latest 'scare' story is around London, and that there is an increase of hospitalisations.  London, errr...Tower Hamlets is going to send the country into lockdown, isn't it!

Edited by AlexLaw76
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27 minutes ago, Turkish said:

First week of November there were around 800,000 tests a day with c35k a day infection on average i the last week it’s 1.4m tests a day 

As I'm sure many others have as well, my Mrs has now had two letters from the NHS asking her to take part in a random testing sample - I assume they are running this to try and more accurately gauge the wider rate of infections, but the timing is very convenient, just when they need to find more cases they embark on a mass testing program....

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21 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

I see the latest 'scare' story is around London, and that there is an increase of hospitalisations.  London, errr...Tower Hamlets is going to send the country into lockdown, isn't it!

Heard on the radio 1/3 of Londoners haven’t had any jabs yet. I wonder how that’s breaks down ethnically. Seeing as the bod talking about it said that we need to reach out to community leaders, I don’t think we’re talking middle aged white twats. 

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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4 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Heard on the radio 1/3 of Londoners haven’t had any jabs yet. I wonder how that’s breaks down ethnically. Seeing as the bod talking about it said that we need to reach out to community leaders, I don’t think we’re talking middle aged white twats. 

I know this important to you and don’t disagree but most of the anti vax protesters seem like your sort of people.

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10 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Heard on the radio 1/3 of Londoners haven’t had any jabs yet. I wonder how that’s breaks down ethnically. Seeing as the bod talking about it said that we need to reach out to community leaders, I don’t think we’re talking middle aged white twats. 

What is a community leader exactly? 

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32 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Still dangling the threat of restrictions over Christmas and new year to get people to have needles in their arms aren’t they. Tossers

Good. It's the principled minority who'll drag the rest of us into lockdown or give us an over stretched NHS. Heap the pressure on them I say. 

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