Ralph out Howe In?

[TWar]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Yes, but Howe is shite though, right?

Unless they get the likes of Hazard etc, they will but more of the same in Jan. 

I am sure Howe has no chance of finishing about Ralph, given how poor he is...let's see

Howe is a considerably worse manager than Ralph, yes, but Newcastle are linked with Sule, tarkowski, dembele, coutinho, etc. and have a tonne of money. 

If one team lines up with Jack Stephens/bednarek and the other lines up with CL level players who start for Bayern like Sule then that evens the odds considerably. 

Howe could easily finish ahead of Ralph if we spend nothing in Jan and they drop like £100m+. That's the thing, people think "manager A beat manager B, manager A must be better" with no consideration for the resources at their disposal.

[Turkish]

1 minute ago, TWar said:

Howe is a considerably worse manager than Ralph, yes, but Newcastle are linked with Sule, tarkowski, dembele, coutinho, etc. and have a tonne of money. 

If one team lines up with Jack Stephens/bednarek and the other lines up with CL level players who start for Bayern like Sule then that evens the odds considerably. 

Howe could easily finish ahead of Ralph if we spend nothing in Jan and they drop like £100m+. That's the thing, people think "manager A beat manager B, manager A must be better" with no consideration for the resources at their disposal.

Earlier on you were claiming “that Bournemouth side cost an absolute fortune” yet Useless Eddie got them relegated. What’s changed? 

[egg]

7 minutes ago, TWar said:

Howe is a considerably worse manager than Ralph, yes, but Newcastle are linked with Sule, tarkowski, dembele, coutinho, etc. and have a tonne of money. 

If one team lines up with Jack Stephens/bednarek and the other lines up with CL level players who start for Bayern like Sule then that evens the odds considerably. 

Howe could easily finish ahead of Ralph if we spend nothing in Jan and they drop like £100m+. That's the thing, people think "manager A beat manager B, manager A must be better" with no consideration for the resources at their disposal.

That's about enough money to buy another Jordan Ibe, Jefferson Lerma, Ake, Solnke and Philip Billing. They're Howe type signings. I like Howe, but his transfer deals have been appalling.

[TWar]

1 minute ago, Turkish said:

Earlier on you were claiming “that Bournemouth side cost an absolute fortune” yet Useless Eddie got them relegated. What’s changed? 

Nothing changed, its a scale thing. Bournemouth spent like the 8th most in the league over five years and finished on average about 14th over that period 16th, 9th, 12th, 14th, and 18th so on average like 14th ish, with fluctuations up to as high as 9th and as low as 18th (getting them relegated).

If Howe repeated his trick at bournemouth at newcastle and spent 8th most in the league he would likely finish about 14th again (maybe a bit lower due to the poor start), which, again, would be pretty poor going with the 8th most expensive team in the league but isn't enough to be relegated.

Now I have a hunch that newcastle will spend the 3rd most in the league or more over the next window or two. From that, I suspect Howe should be able to make midtable quite comfortably. But, again, he should be doing better considering the resources. Ralph on the other hand will likely get pennies.

Next season if Newcastle spend 3rd most in the league and saints spend 20th and we finish 12th and they finish 11th, one team has succeeded and the other has failed.

[TWar]

3 minutes ago, egg said:

That's about enough money to buy another Jordan Ibe, Jefferson Lerma, Ake, Solnke and Philip Billing. They're Howe type signings. I like Howe, but his transfer deals have been appalling.

Ake was class for bournemouth mostly tbf, but I agree with the rest of it. I also think a number of his players (Danjuma, Solanke, Billing) started playing better after leaving his tenure, which doesn't bode great for his man management.

Unfortunately, when you have a lot of money, poor transfers are less likely as you can buy super proven players. If he buys Sule and Tark then that defence is suddenly top 6 level and he barely has to even look at it (and his defences were his biggest weakness)

Edited 5 November, 2021 by TWar

[Turkish]

1 minute ago, TWar said:

Nothing changed, its a scale thing. Bournemouth spent like the 8th most in the league over five years and finished on average about 14th over that period 16th, 9th, 12th, 14th, and 18th so on average like 14th ish, with fluctuations up to as high as 9th and as low as 18th (getting them relegated).

If Howe repeated his trick at bournemouth at newcastle and spent 8th most in the league he would likely finish about 14th again (maybe a bit lower due to the poor start), which, again, would be pretty poor going with the 8th most expensive team in the league but isn't enough to be relegated.

Now I have a hunch that newcastle will spend the 3rd most in the league or more over the next window or two. From that, I suspect Howe should be able to make midtable quite comfortably. But, again, he should be doing better considering the resources. Ralph on the other hand will likely get pennies.

Next season if Newcastle spend 3rd most in the league and saints spend 20th and we finish 12th and they finish 11th, one team has succeeded and the other has failed.

We are talking about them staying up this season. You’re claiming on the one hand they’ll stay up because they’ll spend £100m and have been linked with the likes of Sule (can’t really see why he’d swap a title challenge with Bayern for a relegation battle with Newcastle in January but that’s a separate point) then you’re also claiming Howe is useless because he spent a fortune and had a chance to prove himself with a big budget and got relegated. 

[egg]

1 minute ago, TWar said:

Ake was class for bournemouth mostly tbf, but I agree with the rest of it. I also think a number of his players (Danjuma, Solanke, Billing) started playing better after leaving his tenure, which doesn't bode great for his man management.

Unfortunately, when you have a lot of money, poor transfers are less likely as you can buy super proven players. If he buys Sule and Tark then that defence is suddenly top 6 level and he barely has to even look at it (and his defences were his biggest weakness)

The point is that your post almost pre-supposed he'd buy quality players and project them up the table. His track record though is to waste money on crap. Also, no decent players will join a relegation fight. I'd guess that he'll end up with what he's got and some greedy journey men. 

[TWar]

9 minutes ago, Turkish said:

We are talking about them staying up this season. You’re claiming on the one hand they’ll stay up because they’ll spend £100m and have been linked with the likes of Sule (can’t really see why he’d swap a title challenge with Bayern for a relegation battle with Newcastle in January but that’s a separate point) then you’re also claiming Howe is useless because he spent a fortune and had a chance to prove himself with a big budget and got relegated. 

Thats not mutually exclusive... Howe underperformed with a budget of ~£50m a season to be a lower midtable side who got relegated in a bad year. He'd probably also underperform with a ~£150m a season budget with a midtable side who doesn't make europe. Failure means different things when you spend more money. Bournemouth spent a fortune but Newcastle are about to spend a FORTUNE.

Heres an example, I believe Potter and Bielsa are better managers than Ole, I think most football fans would agree on that (or atleast one of those). If I bet leeds or brighton would make CL over Ole I'd be an idiot, as Ole has Ronaldo and about 7 other worldclass players and Brighton/Leeds do not. That doesn't make Ole a better manager. Howe will be the same, markedly less talented than Dyche, Ralph, or Bielsa but with enough cash for that difference not to matter.

As for Sule, I didn't believe it either but people pretty well placed have linked it. And if not Sule, it shows the range of players they are going for.

Edited 5 November, 2021 by TWar

[TWar]

5 minutes ago, egg said:

The point is that your post almost pre-supposed he'd buy quality players and project them up the table. His track record though is to waste money on crap. Also, no decent players will join a relegation fight. I'd guess that he'll end up with what he's got and some greedy journey men. 

We'll have to see on this one. If he signings are crap I rate him to go down. Right now though, the most reliably linked players (eg. Sule, Tark) would be plenty to keep them safe. Also, a preposterously wealthy conglomerate just bought them, I doubt they cheap out now and let their new investment get relegated. A player will join a relegation threatened side if you double their wage and put in a relegation clause, and it only takes one doing so for others to think "Well, newcastle might not have many points, but they have X, that and me should be enough for them to surpass burnley, plus if they don't I'll leave for pennies due to my clause".

Edited 5 November, 2021 by TWar

[egg]

The owners don't determine if a club probably in or around the relegation zone when the window opens, gets relegated. They've got to persuade decent players to join them in that position and hope that Howe can get them playing and winning. I just don't see them getting the players, particularly if they understand that if Newcastle stay up, they'll doubtless be upgraded in the summer window. It'll be greedy journeymen for me and I hope they go down. 

[TWar]

2 minutes ago, egg said:

They've got to persuade decent players to join them in that position ... I just don't see them getting the players

Money talks. I think there will be quite a few biters actually. We shall see though. Even if they just poach the best players from other relegation battling teams/mid table sides that will go a long way. If they take Tark then their defence doubles in quality and Burnleys halves, which might be enough on its own.

2 minutes ago, egg said:

I hope they go down.

Same, I hate newcastle.

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, FarehamSaintJames said:

One or two players is not going to make them much better.

There is another ten games until the January window, Newcastle depending how badly they continue to play could be well out of sight by then in terms of relegation, in which case unless you throw hundreds of thousands of pounds on salaries and stupidly inflated transfer fees, who is going to move to a Championship-bound club.

The reality is that relegation will only slow them, and if anything set them up even better. They'll be like League 1 saints being the richest team in the league - build a good young squad full of potential, who will then grow with them and the fans as they move up the leagues. Which ultimately in 2-3 years would give them a lot of momentum and fan bond with the team.

[igsey]

Wilson and Fraser will be pleased.

He's not going to keep them up, they'll have a few bad games and the fans will turn on him like they do with all their managers that don't magically get them into Europe "where they belong".

[Minsk]

7 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Yes, but Howe is shite though, right?

Unless they get the likes of Hazard etc, they will but more of the same in Jan. 

I am sure Howe has no chance of finishing about Ralph, given how poor he is...let's see

I don't think anybody has said Howe is 'shite' or 'useless' (to quote Turkish) that is just you (and him) being your usual argumentative, provocative, sensationalist, word twisting self (selves). Similarly, no one has said they are now certs for relegation. Anyone saying any team (bar probably Norwich) are certs for relegation at this stage of the season are complete idiots. Just like those who stated any team was a cert for relegation before a ball was even kicked in the campaign. As we all know, anything can happen in football.

What we can do, however, is compare like for like and look at previous. For example: in their one full season of managing similar sized teams in the premier league (we have bigger crowds, they spent more money) Ralph's Saints finished 11th whilst Howe's Bournemouth finished 18th. The previous season Ralph came in half way through. At the end of the season Howe's Bournemouth finished 14th (on 45 points) above Saints at 16th (on 39 points). However, if we only look at respective points earned that season only after Ralph was appointed Ralph' Saints earned 30 points to Howe's Bournemouth's 22. (Obviously this could be skewed as we wouldn't have faced all the same teams home and away, but had both played 4 of the big boys once at that stage of the season). Moreover, when comparing both manager's respective achievements in the Premier League Ralph has has achieved: the greater points tally in one season; the most wins in one season; a (marginally) better points per game tally than Howe. Howe had one finish higher that Ralph's best, and 4 lower. The one higher finish was in 9th behind Puel's 8th, and we all know how that ended for Claude. I would say all of those would make him the better manager for this league.

What makes you think Howe is better than Ralph, as a manger in the premier league? 

Edited 5 November, 2021 by Minsk
amended highest league finish fact

[Teddeer]

1 hour ago, TWar said:

We'll have to see on this one. If he signings are crap I rate him to go down. Right now though, the most reliably linked players (eg. Sule, Tark) would be plenty to keep them safe. Also, a preposterously wealthy conglomerate just bought them, I doubt they cheap out now and let their new investment get relegated. A player will join a relegation threatened side if you double their wage and put in a relegation clause, and it only takes one doing so for others to think "Well, newcastle might not have many points, but they have X, that and me should be enough for them to surpass burnley, plus if they don't I'll leave for pennies due to my clause".

The stark truth is that Howe's first and most pressing task is to get Newcastle to the January window still in touch with clubs at the lower end of the table. That will not be easy by any means when you look at how tough their fixtures are. If he manages that he will have made a great start to the job and we'll then see how they do in terms of transfers in the January window. It may be that he doesn't get the full and final say on any incomings because they are reported to be bring in a DoF. 

[Teddeer]

12 minutes ago, igsey said:

Wilson and Fraser will be pleased.

He's not going to keep them up, they'll have a few bad games and the fans will turn on him like they do with all their managers that don't magically get them into Europe "where they belong".

What's Dad's Army got to do with it?

[TWar]

1 minute ago, Teddeer said:

The stark truth is that Howe's first and most pressing task is to get Newcastle to the January window still in touch with clubs at the lower end of the table. That will not be easy by any means when you look at how tough their fixtures are. If he manages that he will have made a great start to the job and we'll then see how they do in terms of transfers in the January window. It may be that he doesn't get the full and final say on any incomings because they are reported to be bring in a DoF. 

Yeah agreed. I think they should be ok though, a number of other bottom teams look quite weak this year. If Burnley lose Tark and/or Mee in jan they will be in real trouble and Watford/Norwich look wank.

[beatlesaint]

Funny looking on Social Media and seeing Newcastle fans trying to convince themselves this is a good appointment. 

I may well be proved wrong but I cant see him doing anything up there, he isnt the kind of manager who is going to attract big name players.

The appointment is a bit like buying a mansion and kitting it out with flat pack furniture from Argos. 

Edited 5 November, 2021 by beatlesaint

[TWar]

33 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

The reality is that relegation will only slow them, and if anything set them up even better. They'll be like League 1 saints being the richest team in the league - build a good young squad full of potential, who will then grow with them and the fans as they move up the leagues. Which ultimately in 2-3 years would give them a lot of momentum and fan bond with the team.

There is a lot of sense in this actually, building a squad from grassroots and then testing it against lower league allowing it to gel, battering weaker opposition and then coming up to the prem with that squad full on confidence, nicely gelled, and ready to spend big money to add star power is probably a better starting point than limping on in the prem with a bunch of holes and no confidence.

Don't know if the saudi's will see it that way though, would certainly be a little embarrassing for them to be relegated.

[TWar]

2 minutes ago, beatlesaint said:

Funny looking on Social Media and seeing Newcastle fans trying to convince themselves this is a good appointment. 

I may well be proved wrong but I cant see him doing anything up there, he isnt the kind of manager who is going to attract big name players.

The appointment is a bit like buying a mansion and kitting it our with flat pack furniture from Argos. 

I imagine the big name players will be attracted by money, but yeah it is incredibly uninspiring. Especially since they missed out on a manager who just won the europa league with villarreal. 

Edited 5 November, 2021 by TWar

[Minsk]

7 minutes ago, TWar said:

Yeah agreed. I think they should be ok though, a number of other bottom teams look quite weak this year. If Burnley lose Tark and/or Mee in jan they will be in real trouble and Watford/Norwich look wank.

Yep. Like you say, if Newcastle buy Tarkowski from Burnley, Sarr from Watford, Tony from Brentford, Cantwell from Norwich (for example) they would have significantly improved their own squad whilst weakening those of their nearest relegation rivals. Exactly why we should not sell them anyone if they come calling in January (and certainly not our captain as some are suggesting we should).

[TWar]

1 minute ago, Minsk said:

Yep. Like you say, if Newcastle buy Tarkowski from Burnley, Sarr from Watford, Tony from Brentford, Cantwell from Norwich (for example) they would have significantly improved their own squad whilst weakening those of their nearest relegation rivals. Exactly why we should not sell them anyone if they come calling in January (and certainly not our captain as some are suggesting we should).

Burnley are particularly precarious as their two best players (Mee and Tark) both have 6 months left on their contracts. I'd be absolutely bricking it if I were a Burnley fan. Last chance for new owners to cash in and Newcastle are looking...

[LuckyNumber7]

10 minutes ago, beatlesaint said:

Funny looking on Social Media and seeing Newcastle fans trying to convince themselves this is a good appointment. 

I may well be proved wrong but I cant see him doing anything up there, he isnt the kind of manager who is going to attract big name players.

The appointment is a bit like buying a mansion and kitting it out with flat pack furniture from Argos. 

Rome wasn't built in a day though. Look at Man City when their takeover happened, one of their first appointments was Mark Hughes and it took them several years to be challenging seriously at the top. Regardless of money they are unlikely to attract top stars right away and will have to build gradually.

I think Howe is a solid appointment and I'm sure his remit for this season is simply to stay up.

[Dellman]

Hope they go down

[Wade Garrett]

Good appointment.  They will improve.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Perhaps the experts slagging Howe can let us know where they think a decent premier league manager should finish this season with Newcastle. If Ralph was taking over today, where would they end up come May? 

[Give it to Ron]

5 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Perhaps the experts slagging Howe can let us know where they think a decent premier league manager should finish this season with Newcastle. If Ralph was taking over today, where would they end up come May? 

How can anyone answer that without knowing how they recruit in January?

if they lose Saint Maxim through injury they are in deep trouble 

Edited 5 November, 2021 by Give it to Ron

[Chapel End]

5 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Perhaps the experts slagging Howe can let us know where they think a decent premier league manager should finish this season with Newcastle. If Ralph was taking over today, where would they end up come May? 

Do tell as you class yourself in that bracket. 

 

[Lord Duckhunter]

9 minutes ago, Give it to Ron said:

How can anyone answer that without knowing how they recruit in January?

if they lose Saint Maxim through injury they are in deep trouble 

He got slagged for poor recruitment at Bournemouth, so surely good (or bad) recruitment in Jan should be part of the judgment. 

Edited 5 November, 2021 by Lord Duckhunter

[Minsk]

1 hour ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

He got slagged for poor recruitment at Bournemouth, so surely good (or bad) recruitment in Jan should be part of the judgment. 

People have criticised his recruitment at Bournemouth, sure. Wouldn't say he has been 'slagged off'. In any event, instead of trying to come across all full of yourself and trying to belittle others (as usual) asking for their predictions, why not put up yourself first? Where do you think Howe will have Newcastle finishing this season? How would you rate his transfer dealings at Bournemouth? Especially in his last 2 seasons there (giving him the benefit of having 3 seasons to 'bed them in' to the premier league).

The where does anyone think Ralph would have them finishing is a completely moot point, as we will never know. The haters will say relegation; the reasonable supporters will say keep them up. All I can say for certain is that when Ralph took over Saints (on match day 16, so that particular match really had nothing to do with him) we had 9 points on the table and were sat in 18th in the league. We finished in 16th on 39 points. So that was 30 points from the following 22 matches. And that was without being given a huge wad of money to splurge in the January transfer window. From memory, I believe our only addition in that window was Charlie Austin. So, going on his record/history, I would say Ralph would keep them up. But, as I said, it's really moot. I'll give my opinion on Howe after you give yours.

[aintforever]

7 hours ago, egg said:

That's about enough money to buy another Jordan Ibe, Jefferson Lerma, Ake, Solnke and Philip Billing. They're Howe type signings. I like Howe, but his transfer deals have been appalling.

You support a club that spent £15million on Wesley Hoet and you think £20mill for Nathan Ake was a bad signing.

[CB Fry]

29 minutes ago, aintforever said:

You support a club that spent £15million on Wesley Hoet and you think £20mill for Nathan Ake was a bad signing.

I didn't realise that the signing of Wesley Hoedt removed the rights of Saints Web users to ever criticise any other club's transfer dealings.

 

[Turkish]

4 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Perhaps the experts slagging Howe can let us know where they think a decent premier league manager should finish this season with Newcastle. If Ralph was taking over today, where would they end up come May? 

Doesn’t matter it wouldn’t be Ralphs squad for 3 years 

[egg]

1 hour ago, aintforever said:

You support a club that spent £15million on Wesley Hoet and you think £20mill for Nathan Ake was a bad signing.

Jordan Ibe, Jefferson Lerma, Solanke and Philip Billing...you get the point. 

[Lord Duckhunter]

3 hours ago, Minsk said:

 I'll give my opinion on Howe after you give yours.

I suggest you read back through the thread, and you’ll see my opinion.

 

 

 

[Minsk]

14 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

I suggest you read back through the thread, and you’ll see my opinion.

 

 

 

Nope, nothing back there. Some guff about you not rating Ralph (as if we didn't know); some more guff about how you don't like Howe as a bloke (as if that means anything); other guff about how posters on here should never criticize his managerial abilities; and yet more guff about how is effectiveness at any other club could be up for debate. Absolutely sweet FA about how you rate his signings in the past 2 seasons of his tenure at Bournemouth or how well you think he will do for the rest of the season at Newcastle (if he is actually given the gig). So, once again: Where do you think Howe will have Newcastle finishing this season? How would you rate his transfer dealings at Bournemouth? Especially in his last 2 seasons there (giving him the benefit of having 3 seasons to 'bed them in' to the premier league).

Or don't you have the bollocks to answer the question you have asked others to answer?

[HarvSFC]

4 hours ago, Minsk said:

People have criticised his recruitment at Bournemouth, sure. Wouldn't say he has been 'slagged off'. In any event, instead of trying to come across all full of yourself and trying to belittle others (as usual) asking for their predictions, why not put up yourself first? Where do you think Howe will have Newcastle finishing this season? How would you rate his transfer dealings at Bournemouth? Especially in his last 2 seasons there (giving him the benefit of having 3 seasons to 'bed them in' to the premier league).

The where does anyone think Ralph would have them finishing is a completely moot point, as we will never know. The haters will say relegation; the reasonable supporters will say keep them up. All I can say for certain is that when Ralph took over Saints (on match day 16, so that particular match really had nothing to do with him) we had 9 points on the table and were sat in 18th in the league. We finished in 16th on 39 points. So that was 30 points from the following 22 matches. And that was without being given a huge wad of money to splurge in the January transfer window. From memory, I believe our only addition in that window was Charlie Austin. So, going on his record/history, I would say Ralph would keep them up. But, as I said, it's really moot. I'll give my opinion on Howe after you give yours.

Austin was Koeman's last signing. We didn't make a single signing in January 2019. Djenepo was Ralph's first signing, joining the following June.

[Minsk]

Just now, HarvSFC said:

Austin was Koeman's last signing. We didn't make a single signing in January 2019. Djenepo was Ralph's first signing, joining the following June.

Thanks for that. Couldn't remember. So Ralph turned things around without any new signings. Did an even better job than I thought then. Wonder if Howe could do the same at Newcastle?

[itchen]

I had nothing against Newcastle until they got taken over by a murderous, middle Eastern regime.  I really, really hope they go down and hope they stay there for a few seasons.

[whelk]

Appears maybe Howe might not takeover. Chaotic club

[beatlesaint]

20 minutes ago, whelk said:

Appears maybe Howe might not takeover. Chaotic club

Has he consulted a map and seen how far it is from Poole? 

[Saint86]

On 05/11/2021 at 12:29, Lord Duckhunter said:

Perhaps the experts slagging Howe can let us know where they think a decent premier league manager should finish this season with Newcastle. If Ralph was taking over today, where would they end up come May? 

Significantly higher in the table than howe would achieve.

[Badger]

10 minutes ago, beatlesaint said:

Has he consulted a map and seen how far it is from Poole? 

Either that or he only watched our second half performance and holds onto that as a glimmer of hope for his dream job a bus ride from home.

[Katalinic]

3 hours ago, beatlesaint said:

Has he consulted a map and seen how far it is from Poole? 

Look out for the regular private jet between Newcastle & Bournemouth!

[Chapel End]

Faarke anyone?

[Toadhall Saint]

33 minutes ago, Chapel End said:

Faarke anyone?

Faarke off

[Saint Keef]

Right......it's risky I know, but I'm going to put my head on the line and say that Eddie Howe won't be our manager by the end of October. Based on two things really. 1) It's now 8th November and 2) He's now gone to Newcastle. 🤣 

[Toadhall Saint]

9 minutes ago, Saint Keef said:

Right......it's risky I know, but I'm going to put my head on the line and say that Eddie Howe won't be our manager by the end of October. Based on two things really. 1) It's now 8th November and 2) He's now gone to Newcastle. 🤣 

What’s your name? Flash? 😉

[itchen]

I think the conclusion to draw from this thread is not to trust the word of builders. These are the same people who tell you they will concentrate solely on building your extension only to bugger off to another job halfway through. Let's hope future posters learn from this and get their information from more reliable sources in future such as estate agents, car salespeople or members of the current cabinet.

[Suhari]

59 minutes ago, itchen said:

I think the conclusion to draw from this thread is not to trust the word of builders. These are the same people who tell you they will concentrate solely on building your extension only to bugger off to another job halfway through. Let's hope future posters learn from this and get their information from more reliable sources in future such as estate agents, car salespeople or members of the current cabinet.

Don't forget "bloke down the pub."

Font of knowledge, they are.