Chelsea 1-1 (p.4-3) Saints - Match Thread

[Dark Munster]

7 hours ago, The Left Back said:

Assuming it's a complete lottery (indulge me) the average chance of winning a penalty shoot has to be 50% because it's two teams and they keep going until someone wins.  So if each team did 100 shoot outs the mean score would be 50.  However, statistically, not all the teams will win 50 shoot outs.  Some will win more some fewer - this is called standard deviation from the mean.  I think England's record is about 30%, which is well within range of a normal distribution of scores across a large enough sample.  Not sure what Germany's is, but think I saw 80%, again you would expect to see a score like this, albeit at the far end of a standard deviation curve.  So yes I agree with your hypothesis - England have been unlucky and Germany lucky.  Not sure it 's going to help you win the lottery though.

Now before I get pounced on - I don't think. shoot outs are a complete lottery in the true sense of the word.  But I do think they are massively over analysed by people who broadly don't know what they are talking about.  And I do think it's a rubbish way to decide a match, particularly as it always seems to be matches where the outcome is significant (i.e. a knockout game).  

Well England's record has "improved" to about 30% because we've won a couple with a manager who takes them seriously. I can only remember Germany losing once (the first time, against Czechoslovakia in the final - they learnt their lesson there). But if that doesn't convince you, maybe we should ask Le Tiss to buy us lottery tickets - he was very lucky!

[The Left Back]

5 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

Well England's record has "improved" to about 30% because we've won a couple with a manager who takes them seriously. I can only remember Germany losing once (the first time, against Czechoslovakia in the final - they learnt their lesson there). But if that doesn't convince you, maybe we should ask Le Tiss to buy us lottery tickets - he was very lucky!

Fair point and I'm enjoying the challenge to my thinking.  My first saints hero was David Peach, and since then we've been blessed with some of the best penalty takers in the league.  But I would still draw a distinction between penalties during a game and shoot outs.  And it is the latter I have a problem with.  I realise of course they are not actually a lottery, I simply don't believe they are worthy of the analysis and and post-mortems they get.  

[Ex Lion Tamer]

3 hours ago, The Left Back said:

Fair point and I'm enjoying the challenge to my thinking.  My first saints hero was David Peach, and since then we've been blessed with some of the best penalty takers in the league.  But I would still draw a distinction between penalties during a game and shoot outs.  And it is the latter I have a problem with.  I realise of course they are not actually a lottery, I simply don't believe they are worthy of the analysis and and post-mortems they get.  

I don't have evidence but I feel like the better / more skillful team usually wins penalties. So we matched Chelsea on the day through hard work and organisation but ultimately their quality told in the shoot out

Edited 30 October, 2021 by Ex Lion Tamer

[Bad Wolf]

If Forster had had that game everyone would be foaming at the mouth...Outstanding from McCarthy, two great saves, brilliant distribution and all round solid performance.