Chelsea 1-1 (p.4-3) Saints - Match Thread

[Mr Brightside]

Apart from a couple of brief penalty moments, loved every minute last night. So good to be at a game again, especially away, everything about it was fantastic, the walk to the ground, the singing in the concourse, the non-stop support during the game. At half time we were praying for a goal down our end, and what a moment of sweet bedlam when it happened. We came away at the end and both my lads said (with very hoarse throats) although it was a shame we went out that way, they weren't disappointed, like me, they just enjoyed it.

[CAH61]

Two things last night proves is that we have plenty of good options now and that Ralph has more than one plan and is adaptable. If we play with the same energy, commitment and team spirit moving forward it's going to be an enjoyable ride.

[John Boy Saint]

8 hours ago, macca155 said:

If injury time had gone on any longer I'd have collapsed. It was brilliant, they threw everything at Chelsea. 2000+ Saints fans roaring them on and they really responded.

Salisu was MOTM for me by a country mile. I think we are just getting use to his performances. Going to be hard to keep him.

Lyanco played very well, knackered at the end but boy does he care.  Love his passion. I saw him live at Sheffield and you could see there was a player in there. He just needs time to adjust to the EPL.

Forster had a very good game, but the contract situation means he is on his way. We just have to live with that.

Nobody has mentioned KWP he was fabulous. His covering tackle at the death was seismic. He has to play.

Really positive night. Result was a shame but we had a lot of 2nd string players out there so to go so close remains creditable. Had a lot worse nights at Stamford Bridge.

Negatives are Walcott. I'm afraid time has caught up with him. 

Valery had some good moments and had a hand in the goal. However in defense he was a weak link, that was very clear.

Lyanco needs a Prem game soon and I'd like to see Armstrong team up with Broja.

I need a lie down after that.

COYS

Felt the same - after the teams were announced the initial thought was hmmmm. At the final whistle there was a feeling of blimey! Great performance. 
What was noticeable - we kept on going, we were in Chelsea’s faces and they didn’t like it. “Oh but it was a Chelsea second string team” - what were we? 
We also kept moving, there was very little pondering on the ball, when we lost it and it bounced into space, we were very quickly to it first.

Ralph was posed a few interesting questions last night, let’s hope he does have the wherewithal to answer them.

 

[berkshiresaint]

Overall some great performances last night & a shame we lost on penalties. Lyanco looks like he could be the real deal, let's hope people don't jump on his back if he has a couple of bad games, he is still adjusting to life in England & playing in the top flight. just by the way he celebrated getting a free kick could mean he is already on his way to being a fans favourite & future club legend.

Great to see Smallbone back, hopefully he can kick on now. Thought KWP was outstanding & needs to start at RB with Tino in front of him. Big Fraz was a rock.

Having said all that Ralph will no-doubt drop all of them for the Watford game.

My team would be.

             Big Fraz

KWP Lyanco Salisu Perraud

             Diallo Ori 

    Tino S Armstrong Tella

             Broja

No starting place for JWP (It looks like we are maybe a better team without him)

[Charlie Wayman]

Just to point out that 4 of the penalty takes were late subs, only Armstrong from the starting XI took one. Seems to suggest that the other players who started were knackered and cramping up and Hasenhüttl deemed it too risky for them to take penalties.

[The Cat]

On 26/10/2021 at 06:46, AlexLaw76 said:

Easier to just ignore this game

Are you happy you ignored it, or are you disappointed to miss an excellent performance?

[Verbal]

On 26/10/2021 at 06:46, AlexLaw76 said:

Easier to just ignore this game

I've heard the same said about you

[Verbal]

12 hours ago, macca155 said:

Salisu was MOTM for me by a country mile. I think we are just getting use to his performances. Going to be hard to keep him.

Lyanco played very well, knackered at the end but boy does he care.  Love his passion. I saw him live at Sheffield and you could see there was a player in there. He just needs time to adjust to the EPL.

Agree with this.  Salisu's anticipation especially is exceptional.  My first chance to see Lyanco and thought he and Salisu could be the CB pairing we'll end the season with.

[Micky]

The last time I saw Theo take a penalty was about 3 years ago at Goodison for Everton against us - he missed that night as well....!

To be fair though - it was his equalizer that got the game to pens.

[Sarnia Cherie]

4 hours ago, LiberalCommunist said:

That penalty line up of ours has to be one of the most anxiety inducing ones I've ever seen. 

Walcott, Long (fair play he scored, but who really thought he'd hit the back of the net?) and Smallbone. Out for nine months, and brave enough to step up for a pen, credit for that, but still very strange. But please, never those three again.......ever. 

Really enjoyed the game though, that rag tag bunch especially at the back did us proud. Hopefully Chelsea get City in the next round..........

Good post. I was not surprised by Walcott's crappy effort, had to watch Long's with eyes half shut and feared for the pressure put on Smallbone who looked scared to death. If a manager asks for volunteers, fair enough but then take the responsibility of putting those in order starting with those with the best chance of scoring. I feel we mucked up a golden opportunity to get to the next round. It hurts.

[NorthLondonSFC]

Saints fans were class last night, best I’ve heard us in years and hopefully same again at Watford.

Annoying that they didn’t serve alcohol at half time. Someone behind the bar said it was because a toilet got trashed and a steward told me the police had instructed them to do so due to trouble in the concourse before the game?
 

 

[The Cat]

2 minutes ago, NorthLondonSFC said:

Saints fans were class last night, best I’ve heard us in years and hopefully same again at Watford.

Annoying that they didn’t serve alcohol at half time. Someone behind the bar said it was because a toilet got trashed and a steward told me the police had instructed them to do so due to trouble in the concourse before the game?
 

 

Isn't it a thing that they don't sell it upstairs but do downstairs? I have that lurking somewhere in my brain from the last time I went there.

[NorthLondonSFC]

3 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Isn't it a thing that they don't sell it upstairs but do downstairs? I have that lurking somewhere in my brain from the last time I went there.

I was lower tier a few weeks ago and they were serving at ht, upper this time and no beers so that could be a thing? My last few trips to Watford they’ve not served any at all even pre game but the less time spent in that concourse the better.

[DT]

5 hours ago, LiberalCommunist said:

That penalty line up of ours has to be one of the most anxiety inducing ones I've ever seen. 

Walcott, Long (fair play he scored, but who really thought he'd hit the back of the net?) and Smallbone. Out for nine months, and brave enough to step up for a pen, credit for that, but still very strange. But please, never those three again.......ever. 

Really enjoyed the game though, that rag tag bunch especially at the back did us proud. Hopefully Chelsea get City in the next round..........

This. It was quite bizarre. Tino would have been first in my book, and Walcott the last name. Never mind.

[rooney]

55 minutes ago, NorthLondonSFC said:

Saints fans were class last night, best I’ve heard us in years and hopefully same again at Watford.

Agree and they came out loud and clear on the livestream. Played in big part in the game.
 

 

 

[Sheaf Saint]

Worth bearing in mind that last night we managed something that no other team has done yet this season (in the league anyway) - scored a goal from open play against Chelsea.

[Minsk]

It was a very good performance from Saints from beginning to end. Such a shame to go out on pens, but far better than being stuffed and outplayed (as many on here had predicted pre-match). Well done to Ralph for his formation and tactics and to the players for executing the game plan.

FF displayed again why I rate him above Macca (even though I do admit the latter has been better so far this season). KWP, Lyanco and Salisu all had very good matches. Valery was very shaky at first and seemed to be out of position a few times but, overall, had an okay game. Good contribution to the equaliser. It is great that we now have some depth in defensive options. Unfortunately that means someone will always need to miss out. Far rather that than how we were in the back end of last season. Stuey started slowly but got stronger and better as the match went on. Very happy that he got those minutes under his belt last night. Will go a long way to him being given his first start this season (hopefully at Watford). Diallo had another good match and I felt was unlucky to be booked so early for a pull back when the ref ignored far more blatant ones from the Chelsea players (how did Saul not get a yellow last night?) Moussa was Moussa: decent performance as a wingback; good trickery getting down the wing; lack of end product. Tella non-stop harassing and looks threatening when on the break, but thought he was a bit wasteful with some wayward passes. Che really wasn't at the races in the first half. Seemed to come alive and started playing far better after his goal, until he got another knock. Arma pacey, lively and direct. Need to persevere with him. Said it last week and will say it again this week, would live to see an Arma/Armando pairing up front. As for the subs: Long did well when he came on; as did Romeu, Smallbone and Tino; Theo didn't. As with the defence, it is nice to have options in CM. Completely changed the mid 2 without us breaking stride, and that was without JWP being available.

The squad is coming together nicely. Ralph has once again displayed flexibility over formation and tactics, and his ability to coach the players in executing them. Just need to work on the attack. That will come. Would certainly rather we used the money in the bank on bringing in another striker in January than in paying off Ralph. Until then, as I said above, I would like to see Arma and Broja paired together for a few matches, with Tella coming off the bench.  

[derry]

A couple of players for opposing reasons stood out for me. Forster for the courageous way he played and put his upper body as a block on incoming forwards. McCarthy won't do this he doesn't relish the thought of possible pain which results in the ball going past him Forster for me every day of the week warts and all. The other player is Walcott, another that seems not to relish any physical contact. Pulls out, doesn't go in at all, steers clear of contact or any likelyhood, has a little half hearted nibble now and then but lacks the determination. Until he can overcome this he is a player on the periphary more cameo than contender. 

[CanadaSaint]

I’m drawing a blank on this, but who was taking those corners in the last four minutes? They were hard, quite flat and damn near deadly. And we had two CBs up there who looked willing to go through a brick wall to get on the end of them.

There were many good signs last night, but that one could be huge, given our challenges in scoring from open play.

[Matthew Le God]

4 minutes ago, CanadaSaint said:

I’m drawing a blank on this, but who was taking those corners in the last four minutes? They were hard, quite flat and damn near deadly.

Will Smallbone

[Verbal]

42 minutes ago, derry said:

A couple of players for opposing reasons stood out for me. Forster for the courageous way he played and put his upper body as a block on incoming forwards. McCarthy won't do this he doesn't relish the thought of possible pain which results in the ball going past him Forster for me every day of the week warts and all. The other player is Walcott, another that seems not to relish any physical contact. Pulls out, doesn't go in at all, steers clear of contact or any likelyhood, has a little half hearted nibble now and then but lacks the determination. Until he can overcome this he is a player on the periphary more cameo than contender. 

Impressive that you've managed a consistent level of bollocks from beginning to end in this post.  You want to tell me in particular how you know that McCarthy "doesn't relish the thought of possible pain"?  It's not just a stupid comment; it's likely to be libellous.

[CanadaSaint]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Will Smallbone

Really! Thank you. He took a physical step forward last night but I hope he didn’t take a mental step back. There’s a decent squad player in there.

[Charlie Wayman]

4 hours ago, NorthLondonSFC said:

Saints fans were class last night, best I’ve heard us in years and hopefully same again at Watford.

Annoying that they didn’t serve alcohol at half time. Someone behind the bar said it was because a toilet got trashed and a steward told me the police had instructed them to do so due to trouble in the concourse before the game?
 

 

If you think a bunch of idiots singing "You are watching F. S." all evening and clearly heard on the stream is "class" then shame on you. Nothing short of disgracefully embarrassing in my book. 

[derry]

1 hour ago, Verbal said:

Impressive that you've managed a consistent level of bollocks from beginning to end in this post.  You want to tell me in particular how you know that McCarthy "doesn't relish the thought of possible pain"?  It's not just a stupid comment; it's likely to be libellous.

Maybe you weren't paying attention but on occasions unlike Forster who put a block in McCarthy stays rooted on his line on the near post and throws his arms up as the hall flashes past him. He also never goes in with his upper body as other keepers do he goes legs first. That tells me he doesn't like to do what Forster does when blocking, come out quickly arms and body blocking in case he gets hurt. He blocked several on the near post last night being aggressive and courageous.

[LiberalCommunist]

I hope Chelsea get a unkind draw, I do hate what might have beens...............

Got a feeling they'll get the Sunderland. Eww.

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, LiberalCommunist said:

I hope Chelsea get a unkind draw, I do hate what might have beens...............

Got a feeling they'll get the Sunderland. Eww.

The draw is Saturday morning on Soccer AM or something. WTF?

[Matthew Le God]

1 hour ago, LiberalCommunist said:

I hope Chelsea get a unkind draw, I do hate what might have beens...............

Got a feeling they'll get the Sunderland. Eww.

The draw wouldn't be guaranteed to play out the same. If Saints had won last night it would have lots of knock on effects. 

Butterfly effect

[Noodles34]

Despite Walcott’s overall display, you can’t hammer him for the penalty. Pretty much on target into the corner and the keeper did really well. If he’d gone the other way then it would have been a class spot kick. 

[Dark Munster]

10 hours ago, Sarnia Cherie said:

Good post. I was not surprised by Walcott's crappy effort, had to watch Long's with eyes half shut and feared for the pressure put on Smallbone who looked scared to death. If a manager asks for volunteers, fair enough but then take the responsibility of putting those in order starting with those with the best chance of scoring. I feel we mucked up a golden opportunity to get to the next round. It hurts.

... then he's an idiot, just like the previous generation of England managers. I presume/hope he had the squad practicing them for days in advance, and had the line up more or less pre-determined by the final whistle. Southgate, for all his faults, treats penalty shootouts professionally, and not as a lottery with "who fancies taking one?" (yeah I know, Rashford and Sancho, but I'm sure he's learnt from that mistake).

[WALK DMC]

7 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

... then he's an idiot, just like the previous generation of England managers. I presume/hope he had the squad practicing them for days in advance, and had the line up more or less pre-determined by the final whistle. Southgate, for all his faults, treats penalty shootouts professionally, and not as a lottery with "who fancies taking one?" (yeah I know, Rashford and Sancho, but I'm sure he's learnt from that mistake).

The difficulty with these situations is that being the best penalty taker in training doesn't mean that you're the best when you are under immense pressure of a shoot-out.  Steve Davis would never have missed the easy pot at the end of the 1985 snooker final or Bernard Langer missing a short putt in 1991 Ryder cup while doing their routine practising.

Choosing somebody who is both technically strong and can take the pressure is difficult. I'm also not convinced that because someone is young that they are less likely to be able to take the pressure; impetuous youth can sometimes give unnatural confidence. So I'm not against asking who is up for it, as long as they have the basic technical abilities. 

Regardless, looking at Smallbone's body language as he stepped up for the penalty didn't give me the confidence that he was going to stick it in the back of the net. And the rest is history ....... 

[Sheaf Saint]

9 hours ago, Noodles34 said:

Despite Walcott’s overall display, you can’t hammer him for the penalty. Pretty much on target into the corner and the keeper did really well. If he’d gone the other way then it would have been a class spot kick. 

I'd need to see it again, but it looked like it was going wide to me.

[Sarnia Cherie]

8 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

... then he's an idiot, just like the previous generation of England managers. I presume/hope he had the squad practicing them for days in advance, and had the line up more or less pre-determined by the final whistle. Southgate, for all his faults, treats penalty shootouts professionally, and not as a lottery with "who fancies taking one?" (yeah I know, Rashford and Sancho, but I'm sure he's learnt from that mistake).

We will just have to wait and see, won't we? 

[saintadjg]

9 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

I'd need to see it again, but it looked like it was going wide to me.

Pretty sure keeper fingertips it onto the post. My 1st reaction was great save , the replays I've seen aren't the clearest.

[Noodles34]

15 minutes ago, saintadjg said:

Pretty sure keeper fingertips it onto the post. My 1st reaction was great save , the replays I've seen aren't the clearest.

close, think it would have crept in the post or in off the post

 

[NorthLondonSFC]

14 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

If you think a bunch of idiots singing "You are watching F. S." all evening and clearly heard on the stream is "class" then shame on you. Nothing short of disgracefully embarrassing in my book. 

I have no idea what you are talking about, what does F.S stand for? 

[Toussaint]

24 minutes ago, NorthLondonSFC said:

I have no idea what you are talking about, what does F.S stand for? 

Think he’s talking about the witty little  ditty “ your support is effin poopy”

[farawaysaint]

11 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

The draw wouldn't be guaranteed to play out the same. If Saints had won last night it would have lots of knock on effects. 

Butterfly effect

Rubbish, they are independent events. That is like saying if Saints win and I throw a coin toss it may not be the same result.

Edited 28 October, 2021 by farawaysaint

[Teddeer]

I think going straight to penalties went against us for this particular game. With who we had left on the pitch I didn't fancy us in the shoot out and reckon we'd have had a better chance of winning it had there been extra time. Of course we'll never know.

[Minsk]

1 hour ago, saintadjg said:

Pretty sure keeper fingertips it onto the post. My 1st reaction was great save , the replays I've seen aren't the clearest.

That's how it looked to me too. Kepa gets his fingers to it, the ball then hits the post. It was going just inside the post, into the inside side netting if you like. Well placed, just not hit with enough pace.

[Toadhall Saint]

15 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

If you think a bunch of idiots singing "You are watching F. S." all evening and clearly heard on the stream is "class" then shame on you. Nothing short of disgracefully embarrassing in my book. 

Says it all when quoting what was heard on a stream

[Matthew Le God]

53 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Rubbish, they are independent events. That is like saying if Saints win and I throw a coin toss it may not be the same result.

They are not independent events.

Do you think the 3 days after the match would be exactly the same if Saints had won? No, you would be in a different mood, you would have different conversations with people, do different things, be late or early to different events and that would ripple outwards. The same applies to all those connected with the draw, their lives would play out differently and the way they spin the balls in the draw would be different. The build up to the draw would be talking about Saints, not Chelsea, timings effected which then alters the draw itself.

Edited 28 October, 2021 by Matthew Le God

[The Left Back]

22 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

Just to point out that 4 of the penalty takes were late subs, only Armstrong from the starting XI took one. Seems to suggest that the other players who started were knackered and cramping up and Hasenhüttl deemed it too risky for them to take penalties.

I've a pretty strong opinion about penalties that they don't stand up to too much analysis.  Penalties that go in are good penalties, penalties that do not are bad penalties.  Simple. Also shoot outs that are won chose their takers well, shoot outs that are lost chose poorly.  Given they are professional footballers who can manipulate a ball in the way they want, and given they are humans who can brain fart at any moment, then penalties is just a lottery.  It makes me laugh when the pundits make any more of penalties and shoots outs than that.  Just pick five players who are up for it and not too tired to walk to the spot and the rest is almost down to random chance.

And in case anyone asks, I do not support penalties as a way to settle drawn matches.  My idea would simply be to play on with next goal wins and have each team withdraw a player after every 3 or 5 minutes.  It would be 7-a-side by 12 or 20 minutes and that should be enough to ensure a goal every time. 

51 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Rubbish, they are independent events. That is like saying if Saints win and I throw a coin toss it may not be the same result.

Your example is exactly the point of what the butterfly effect is saying.  Before dismissing it as rubbish I would spend some time studying quantum theory.  And if you have studied quantum theory and still believe your example is rubbish I would appreciate understanding your thinking.  Having said that, this topic probably belongs in the lounge, which I have only just discovered.  

[nta786]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

They are not independent events.

Do you think the 3 days after the match would be exactly the same if Saints had won? No, you would be in a different mood, you would have different conversations with people, do different things, be late or early to different events and that would ripple outwards. The same applies to all those connected with the draw, their lives would play out differently and the way they spin the balls in the draw would be different. The build up to the draw would be talking about Saints, not Chelsea, timings effected which then alters the draw itself.

Whilst this is true, and you could argue that if we had won maybe even the ball numbers would be different, this made me spit my tea out 😂

[Mr Brightside]

3 hours ago, Toussaint said:

Think he’s talking about the witty little  ditty “ your support is effin poopy”

Yep, was sung a fair bit, standard song that most away supporters sing surely? Equal  number if not more OWTS (obviously), COYRs, Pompey get battered…., a proper witty ditty about the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy (my favourite) and loads of others. There may have also been some inappropriate language directed in the direction of a certain Mason Mount when he was warming up in front of us. Fair play to him, he seemed to enjoy it. 
Ultimately I thought the support was excellent, pretty much non-stop. Everything an away game should be. Class! 

[VectisSaint]

15 hours ago, LiberalCommunist said:

I hope Chelsea get a unkind draw, I do hate what might have beens...............

Got a feeling they'll get the Sunderland. Eww.

Hope Chelsea go on and win it, always feel better losing to eventual winners (unless it's in the final of course) 

[Whitey Grandad]

2 hours ago, The Left Back said:

I've a pretty strong opinion about penalties that they don't stand up to too much analysis.  Penalties that go in are good penalties, penalties that do not are bad penalties.  Simple. Also shoot outs that are won chose their takers well, shoot outs that are lost chose poorly.  Given they are professional footballers who can manipulate a ball in the way they want, and given they are humans who can brain fart at any moment, then penalties is just a lottery.  It makes me laugh when the pundits make any more of penalties and shoots outs than that.  Just pick five players who are up for it and not too tired to walk to the spot and the rest is almost down to random chance.

And in case anyone asks, I do not support penalties as a way to settle drawn matches.  My idea would simply be to play on with next goal wins and have each team withdraw a player after every 3 or 5 minutes.  It would be 7-a-side by 12 or 20 minutes and that should be enough to ensure a goal every time. 

Your example is exactly the point of what the butterfly effect is saying.  Before dismissing it as rubbish I would spend some time studying quantum theory.  And if you have studied quantum theory and still believe your example is rubbish I would appreciate understanding your thinking.  Having said that, this topic probably belongs in the lounge, which I have only just discovered.  

The Butterfly Effect does not exist. It was a mistake in someone's figures. The Central Limit Theorem on the other hand...

[david in sweden]

16 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

... then he's an idiot, just like the previous generation of England managers. I presume/hope he had the squad practicing them for days in advance, and had the line up more or less pre-determined by the final whistle. Southgate, for all his faults, treats penalty shootouts professionally, and not as a lottery with "who fancies taking one?" (yeah I know, Rashford and Sancho, but I'm sure he's learnt from that mistake).

The England situation is rather special in as much as the squad is chosen from the  +/- 35%  of available English players from the Premier League.

Every club has its allotted penalty-takers and if (an England player) is from a club who have someone from another nationality as first choice

then  he may never have taken a penalty in a real game, and what they may/may not have done on the practice ground counts for nothing, 

especially if they are facing an international keeper on the day.  Southgate must be brutally aware of this, as he was the culprit on at least one of

the many occasions that England went out in major tournaments in the last 30 years. 

Of course the player may.... have confidence / looking to be hero / impress the manager, but their precise technique is really vital. 

 

The Beattie / Lambert method was... run fast at the ball, and hit it as hard as you can, whereas MLT could place it wherever he wanted and

their stats. prove it, whereas JWP has his own technique, but even that isn't foolproof - as he often seems to go for the goalies right side. 

 

I still think it's a lousy way to settle a game, and the " silver goal " method ( first to score another goal, is merely an extension of added time ).

[Piran]

7 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

I'd need to see it again, but it looked like it was going wide to me.

I thought it was definitely a save. Just inside the post for me.

[Dark Munster]

10 hours ago, The Left Back said:

I've a pretty strong opinion about penalties that they don't stand up to too much analysis.  Penalties that go in are good penalties, penalties that do not are bad penalties.  Simple. Also shoot outs that are won chose their takers well, shoot outs that are lost chose poorly.  Given they are professional footballers who can manipulate a ball in the way they want, and given they are humans who can brain fart at any moment, then penalties is just a lottery.  It makes me laugh when the pundits make any more of penalties and shoots outs than that.  Just pick five players who are up for it and not too tired to walk to the spot and the rest is almost down to random chance.

😕 So over the last 40 odd years the Germans are really lucky then, and England really unlucky? I need to ask my German friends to buy me a lottery ticket.

[The Left Back]

20 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

😕 So over the last 40 odd years the Germans are really lucky then, and England really unlucky? I need to ask my German friends to buy me a lottery ticket.

Assuming it's a complete lottery (indulge me) the average chance of winning a penalty shoot has to be 50% because it's two teams and they keep going until someone wins.  So if each team did 100 shoot outs the mean score would be 50.  However, statistically, not all the teams will win 50 shoot outs.  Some will win more some fewer - this is called standard deviation from the mean.  I think England's record is about 30%, which is well within range of a normal distribution of scores across a large enough sample.  Not sure what Germany's is, but think I saw 80%, again you would expect to see a score like this, albeit at the far end of a standard deviation curve.  So yes I agree with your hypothesis - England have been unlucky and Germany lucky.  Not sure it 's going to help you win the lottery though.

Now before I get pounced on - I don't think. shoot outs are a complete lottery in the true sense of the word.  But I do think they are massively over analysed by people who broadly don't know what they are talking about.  And I do think it's a rubbish way to decide a match, particularly as it always seems to be matches where the outcome is significant (i.e. a knockout game).