Contract Rebels

[Dusic]

To be really good selling club, you need to sell for as much as you can. That is obvious, and means we could then spend more on better players, or buy more players.

If we look at our recent major sales:

Hojbjerg - £15m
Ings - £30m
Vesteragaard - £15m

All of these were down to one year left on the contract, and only Ings really generated a profit, albeit we would clearly rather have kept the player. Hojbjerg probably the worst due to his age. I imagine his value now is at least £35m.

Whilst clearly a player cannot be forced to sign a new contract, we have to change something to stop these scenarios (Clyne and Wanyama before them) from continually happening again, otherwise we aren't really being effective at our stated aim.

Take Salisu and Diallo for example. They signed 4yr contracts last year which was a settling season for both. They have three years left, which is essentially two years as clearly we won't let them leave on a free transfer.

To get the best fee we would need to sell them at the end of this season, yet it feels like they have barely played for us. Its quite possible both will be very good players but I think they will need a couple more years of playing regularly to really show that and and maximise their value. Unless we extend their contracts at some stage this season, the most likely scenario is exactly the same as the others, their contracts will get to <18mths they will stall on a new one and then we will sell for less than they are worth to avoid them expiring.

I really hope once the window is shut the club tries to have a rethink on what they are trying here. At other teams, players often get a new deal after one season when they have shown their quality. Wonder if we would try similar with someone like KWP, or Salisu if he starts the season well? Especially so the players who join on 4yr deals.

Hard to know what the solution is, but we cannot be considered as a good selling club if we continually have to sell our best players for medicore sums because they get into the last year of their contract and we are backed into a corner.

[Daft Kerplunk]

See Fraser Forster for when this can fall down. However, if we can better at coaching players and keeping a smaller more competitive squad, longer contracts can work. That said, long contracts screwed is with the likes of Hoedt. Ultimately comes to quality of recruitment, coaching and generating great teams. 

[Saint86]

6 hours ago, Dusic said:

To be really good selling club, you need to sell for as much as you can. That is obvious, and means we could then spend more on better players, or buy more players.

If we look at our recent major sales:

Hojbjerg - £15m
Ings - £30m
Vesteragaard - £15m

All of these were down to one year left on the contract, and only Ings really generated a profit, albeit we would clearly rather have kept the player. Hojbjerg probably the worst due to his age. I imagine his value now is at least £35m.

Whilst clearly a player cannot be forced to sign a new contract, we have to change something to stop these scenarios (Clyne and Wanyama before them) from continually happening again, otherwise we aren't really being effective at our stated aim.

Take Salisu and Diallo for example. They signed 4yr contracts last year which was a settling season for both. They have three years left, which is essentially two years as clearly we won't let them leave on a free transfer.

To get the best fee we would need to sell them at the end of this season, yet it feels like they have barely played for us. Its quite possible both will be very good players but I think they will need a couple more years of playing regularly to really show that and and maximise their value. Unless we extend their contracts at some stage this season, the most likely scenario is exactly the same as the others, their contracts will get to <18mths they will stall on a new one and then we will sell for less than they are worth to avoid them expiring.

I really hope once the window is shut the club tries to have a rethink on what they are trying here. At other teams, players often get a new deal after one season when they have shown their quality. Wonder if we would try similar with someone like KWP, or Salisu if he starts the season well? Especially so the players who join on 4yr deals.

Hard to know what the solution is, but we cannot be considered as a good selling club if we continually have to sell our best players for medicore sums because they get into the last year of their contract and we are backed into a corner.

 

Its a chicken/egg scenario. You could easily argue that no one wanted to pay more for them based on their performances/quality vs what we would ask, and that all the contract running out does is mean that we'll accept a reasonable bid 🤷‍♂️. You say PEH is a £35m pound player, but I doubt many teams would pay that for him.

The season before, Ings was basically the defacto golden boot winner (zero pens) and there wasn't a sniff at him. He misses half a season with injuries and scores 12 goals, and we get £30m for him with a year left on his contract. The implication is that frankly, teams just weren't prepared to pay more for those players. Another example being that JWP is still here...

[Cartman]

Part of it is learning the lessons from when we were handing out 5 year contracts to the likes of Hoedt, Lemina and Elyounoussi. We still do give out 5 year contracts, but only to existing players like JWP or when new signings are coming in on relatively low wages like Adams or Livramento because joining us is a massive opportunity for them. To give 5 year contracts as opposed to 4 to players who have other options besides us would likely require giving them higher initial wages to compensate for the fact that we would have less of an incentive to offer them improved deals if they perform and massively increase the risk to us if they turn out to be shite, as unfortunately we know all too well. There is nothing stopping us from offering them new deals but it is a problem if it takes them a while to justify it, but there isn't really much we can do about it other than gamble that they will improve after their first season.

As for selling when players only have 1 year left and not before, were there ever any clubs willing to pay significantly more than £15m for Hojbjerg, £15 for Vestergaard, £30m for Ings? At one time what buying clubs were willing to pay and what we were willing to sell for coincided more often than not when a player had 2 years left on their contract, maybe that is now just 1.

[CB Fry]

13 hours ago, Dusic said:

To be really good selling club, you need to sell for as much as you can. That is obvious, and means we could then spend more on better players, or buy more players.

If we look at our recent major sales:

Hojbjerg - £15m
Ings - £30m
Vesteragaard - £15m

All of these were down to one year left on the contract, and only Ings really generated a profit, albeit we would clearly rather have kept the player. Hojbjerg probably the worst due to his age. I imagine his value now is at least £35m.

Whilst clearly a player cannot be forced to sign a new contract, we have to change something to stop these scenarios (Clyne and Wanyama before them) from continually happening again, otherwise we aren't really being effective at our stated aim.

Take Salisu and Diallo for example. They signed 4yr contracts last year which was a settling season for both. They have three years left, which is essentially two years as clearly we won't let them leave on a free transfer.

To get the best fee we would need to sell them at the end of this season, yet it feels like they have barely played for us. Its quite possible both will be very good players but I think they will need a couple more years of playing regularly to really show that and and maximise their value. Unless we extend their contracts at some stage this season, the most likely scenario is exactly the same as the others, their contracts will get to <18mths they will stall on a new one and then we will sell for less than they are worth to avoid them expiring.

I really hope once the window is shut the club tries to have a rethink on what they are trying here. At other teams, players often get a new deal after one season when they have shown their quality. Wonder if we would try similar with someone like KWP, or Salisu if he starts the season well? Especially so the players who join on 4yr deals.

Hard to know what the solution is, but we cannot be considered as a good selling club if we continually have to sell our best players for medicore sums because they get into the last year of their contract and we are backed into a corner.

 

This forgets the fact that we were offering Ings an extension for about a year before this summer, and he didn't want to sign it. If I remember well, the same happened with Hojbjerg.

So this is falling into the trap of believing that the clever old club can tie players down for as long as they like before the dopey old player has any inkling that they could get more money or develop their career at a different club. The players can decide to let their deals go down to a year to give them options.

I don't get your point on PEH - No one is going to come in and try and buy Hojbjerg for £35m from Spurs - so this paper valuation is meaningless.

I would think we will offer extensions to some of those players you mention but to be honest Salisu, Diallo have done not much since they'd arrived so I don't fear them leaving. I would be perplexed if we suddenly announced a massive pay rise and five year deal for either this year. The fact that they have needed an entire year to "settle" justifies the four year contract we gave them. Would have been mad to splam them both with whopping five year deals/salaries when they are nowhere near the finished article.

KWP might sign an extension or he might assess his options if he has another great season.

Basically you have to consider that in all these scenarios there are other parties involved, and the players have a level of control all the way through, not just on the day their contract tips into its final year.

Lastly, the club have been crippled by the players we have given five years to: maybe not so much of a coincidence- the likes of Moi or Lemina thinking they would never ever get a better deal than our five year offer. 

It's interesting that a lot of our five year signings have been terrible.

Edited 13 August, 2021 by CB Fry

[tajjuk]

Well Forster is a blindingly obvious failure of the risks of giving someone a new 5 year contract and bigger wages.

From what I can see the club seem to be only giving 4 year contracts to new signings if there is some doubt about them, i.e from a new league or abroad. 5 year contracts are going to proven players like JWP or the younger players whose wages are likely a lot lower.

End of the day you can only sign players that want to sign, so if Diallo or Salisu prove themselves this year then they might get new contracts and they might agree to stay, if not we'll have the same issue down the line. Ings, Hojberg and Vestergaard were all offered new contracts and didn't sign them, yeh having an extra year at that point in hindsight would have been great, but giving 5 year contracts to them at the time, especially someone like Ings with his injury record is a risk.

 

[stknowle]

Maybe I'm viewing it too simplistically but presumably it's possible to insert a clause in the original contracts allowing us to extend by a year on - for example - the anniversary of the date the contract was signed, and on the same date in subsequent years.

Can't see Diallo, Salisu whoever baulking at such a clause and not signing when their big move is being negotiated  but it gives the club the flexibility to prevent the 1 year left scenario if they turn out to be good.

 

 

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

It's interesting that a lot of our five year signings have been terrible.

Do you think that having a long contract plays a part in their poor performance? A lack of motivation maybe?

[Matthew Le God]

Some of those on 4 year deals may have been offered 5 years by the club but opted for a shorter deal to make any future transfer easier for themselves.

[thesaint sfc]

Totally agree with you, but I think most players coming here see us as just a stepping stone. Armstrong mentioned in his interview that we were his next step and he's signed a 4 year contract. It's a shitty situation but the club can't help it unless we get further investment. The Premier League is basically overpriced for us at the moment and signing these loan players and accepting these less interesting contracts for new signings is the best we can do unfortunately. 

[Saint_clark]

Surely the obvious answer is for the club to have an option to extend the contract by 12 months which can only be exercised at the midway point. 

[Jeremy Corbyn]

1 hour ago, thesaint sfc said:

Totally agree with you, but I think most players coming here see us as just a stepping stone. Armstrong mentioned in his interview that we were his next step and he's signed a 4 year contract. It's a shitty situation but the club can't help it unless we get further investment. The Premier League is basically overpriced for us at the moment and signing these loan players and accepting these less interesting contracts for new signings is the best we can do unfortunately. 

Other than those past their prime, any player joining Southampton will hope that they perform well enough to then play for a bigger club.  Frankly, it's the players for whom we aren't a stepping stone who are the problem.

[Joey-deacons-left-nut]

20 hours ago, Dusic said:

To be really good selling club, you need to sell for as much as you can. That is obvious, and means we could then spend more on better players, or buy more players.

If we look at our recent major sales:

Hojbjerg - £15m
Ings - £30m
Vesteragaard - £15m

All of these were down to one year left on the contract, and only Ings really generated a profit, albeit we would clearly rather have kept the player. Hojbjerg probably the worst due to his age. I imagine his value now is at least £35m.
 

I don't think you actually understand the financials behind player purchases. The players purchase price is amortised over the length of their contract.

We turned a pretty good profit on all 3 of those.

 

The profit is based on what the players value is on the books at the time of sale (which depreciates over the course of the contract), not what was paid for him initially.

 

Edited 13 August, 2021 by Joey-deacons-left-nut

[tajjuk]

2 hours ago, Saint_clark said:

Surely the obvious answer is for the club to have an option to extend the contract by 12 months which can only be exercised at the midway point. 

Depends if the player accepts that in the contract, I'd imagine many of these greedy agents advise against it because it means their player might get sold on earlier or is able to go for a free earlier, earning them more money. 

[Wurzel]

2 hours ago, Joey-deacons-left-nut said:

I don't think you actually understand the financials behind player purchases. The players purchase price is amortised over the length of their contract.

We turned a pretty good profit on all 3 of those.

 

The profit is based on what the players value is on the books at the time of sale (which depreciates over the course of the contract), not what was paid for him initially.

 

Technically you are right from an accounting point of view , but for all intents and purposes the way @Dusic is describing profit makes more sense in this scenario.

Ignoring underage players we have a fixed number squad of 25 players. They all have to be paid wages whether they've been here years or are new signings, so, inflation aside, we could regard wages as an approximate constant. But every time we sell a player they have to be replaced and, unless by somone coming through from the Academy, paid for. So (ignoring transfer inflation) we need to at least recover what we pay for each player to replace them with someone of similar quality just to stand still. Running down contracts until their value is nil or next to nothing leaves nothing to replace them with. So we fall further and further behind either financially or in quality of playing staff (or both).

We got really lucky with VVD and sold him for a large profit , which could have covered several losses. Unfortunately the losses it covered seemed to come from everyone we purchased with his sale money and took us right back to square one again. Thankfully the last 12/18 months of trading show we seem to have started getting things right again.

[Charlie Wayman]

On 12/08/2021 at 17:42, Dusic said:

To be really good selling club, you need to sell for as much as you can. That is obvious, and means we could then spend more on better players, or buy more players.

If we look at our recent major sales:

Hojbjerg - £15m
Ings - £30m
Vesteragaard - £15m

All of these were down to one year left on the contract, and only Ings really generated a profit, albeit we would clearly rather have kept the player. Hojbjerg probably the worst due to his age. I imagine his value now is at least £35m.

Whilst clearly a player cannot be forced to sign a new contract, we have to change something to stop these scenarios (Clyne and Wanyama before them) from continually happening again, otherwise we aren't really being effective at our stated aim.

Take Salisu and Diallo for example. They signed 4yr contracts last year which was a settling season for both. They have three years left, which is essentially two years as clearly we won't let them leave on a free transfer.

To get the best fee we would need to sell them at the end of this season, yet it feels like they have barely played for us. Its quite possible both will be very good players but I think they will need a couple more years of playing regularly to really show that and and maximise their value. Unless we extend their contracts at some stage this season, the most likely scenario is exactly the same as the others, their contracts will get to <18mths they will stall on a new one and then we will sell for less than they are worth to avoid them expiring.

I really hope once the window is shut the club tries to have a rethink on what they are trying here. At other teams, players often get a new deal after one season when they have shown their quality. Wonder if we would try similar with someone like KWP, or Salisu if he starts the season well? Especially so the players who join on 4yr deals.

Hard to know what the solution is, but we cannot be considered as a good selling club if we continually have to sell our best players for medicore sums because they get into the last year of their contract and we are backed into a corner.

 

If we are successful players will want to stay, if we are not then they will leave. The club got pilloried for handing out 5 year contracts to players who flopped;  there is no crystal ball to help them determine who will succeed and who will not.

[Dusic]

23 minutes ago, Charlie Wayman said:

If we are successful players will want to stay, if we are not then they will leave. The club got pilloried for handing out 5 year contracts to players who flopped;  there is no crystal ball to help them determine who will succeed and who will not.

There is no crystal ball but most on here could see that Clasie and Elyounoussi were too weak and slow within 10mins of their debuts so really they should never have been signed, ditto Carillo.

And Im not suggesting we hand out 5yrs to everyone, but as an example Joe Willock just signed a 6yr deal at Newcastle. They will have no pressure to sell him for four years, and based on his loan are obviously confident he won't flop.

Saints will never be able to sell Salsiu or Diallo for £40m unless they improve to that level this season and we sell this summer. Not impossible, but even by then they will only have a max of about 50 PL games.

Once next season starts their value will begin to drop...

If we keep buying lads who need a year to settle on 4 yr contracts then it will be very rare that we actually get a chance to sell big because by the time other want them their value will be dropping.

We have to get out of the cycle of buying for £15m and then needing to sell to bigger clubs but only for £15m as that doesn't enable any progression.

Edited 13 August, 2021 by Dusic