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Forster or McCarthy, who's your No. 1 keeper this season?


JWade
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First Choice 'keeper  

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  1. 1. First Choice 'keeper

    • Forster
      100
    • McCarthy
      18


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I really was hoping we'd get a new keeper as they are both relegation quality keepers. If I had to choose I'd go with Forster as he's a mildly better shot stopper and seems to be better at knowing when to come off his line and sweep if we play a high line.

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Just now, TWar said:

I really was hoping we'd get a new keeper as they are both relegation quality keepers. If I had to choose I'd go with Forster as he's a mildly better shot stopper and seems to be better at knowing when to come off his line and sweep if we play a high line.

Bro you season review per player tipped me over the edge when it came to the goalies - should post that section again in here about how bad they are.

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A year ago I'd have said AM without a doubt, but he seems to have gone backwards .

Definitely go for FF now, if for no other reason than he hasn't had a chance to let 9 in yet . (Is the 5 away to Spurs still his personal worst?)

 

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1 minute ago, Convict Colony said:

Bro you season review per player tipped me over the edge when it came to the goalies - should post that section again in here about how bad they are.

Here that is, but given we are stuck with these guys it doesn't make for happy reading!

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

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14 minutes ago, TWar said:

Here that is, but given we are stuck with these guys it doesn't make for happy reading!

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

most, if not all of those stats back up what we can all see with our eyes. 

Is there a stat for saves made that quite frankly every keeper should make? Equally, a stat for saves made that were beyond lessor beings (worldies)?

Also, is there a stat for saves made to look easy because their positioning was so bloody good?

Is there a stat for not coming for crosses and the outcomes of not doing so? ie no goal in the next 60 seconds or so?

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Chez said:

most, if not all of those stats back up what we can all see with our eyes. 

Is there a stat for saves made that quite frankly every keeper should make? Equally, a stat for saves made that were beyond lessor beings (worldies)?

Also, is there a stat for saves made to look easy because their positioning was so bloody good?

Is there a stat for not coming for crosses and the outcomes of not doing so? ie no goal in the next 60 seconds or so?

 

 

 

 

Yeah xG is supposed to be pretty indicative of the quality of a save, whether it's a worldy or whether it's a tap in. Positioning is taken into account with whats called post-shot expected goals, but the results were very similar to normal xG and I didn't feel like explaining the difference so I used normal xG but you can look up post shot expected goals if you like.

There are stats for coming for crosses, how many times you do it per game ect. I believe I put them in that post. Outcomes is difficult as whether a cross should have been claimed or not specifically is often down to the relationship between the GK and the CBs. Different keepers will favour leaving different crosses to their CB's and taking different ones for themselves. 

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McCarthy, I really don't think his that bad despite his dip in form which coincided with the whole teams cataclysmic decent. When the whole team was playing well earlier in the season he was being spoken about being selected for England. Rotating cannot help confidence or performance.

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1 hour ago, Chocolate Box said:

I understand that Alex has been told he is first choice (from a very reliable source). For me FF just edges it but neither are up to much.

Jesus. 

*waits for joke about neither being very good with crosses*

Edited by ErwinK1961
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Peak FF between 2014-2016 was quality.

McCarthy has had flashes of brilliance but largely disappoints. 

My answer solely lies with what Ralph sees in training and in the stats.

It doesn't matter who starts this Saturday, all I want is Ralph to pick one GK and stick with it, build some relationship with the defence. 

None of this rotation rubbish unless someone drops an absolute clanger. 

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I voted McCarthy based on him having better technique although it wasn't a vote made with any confidence.

Forster seems to make more saves but is so scruffy and it largely seems due to him being massive rather than anything else. He is also obscenely poor at catching for a Premier League keeper.

The kicking thing is weird. McCarthy obviously does as he's told even though he's not comfortable with playing it out from the back whereas Forster seems to ignore that and smash it aimlessly down the field at most opportunities.

Neither of them are particularly great on crosses although McCarthy is better because he at least comes for them sometimes and is more likely to claim one than Forster.

The unnecessary contract extension for Forster has royally screwed us as he'd be gone by now and we could be buying another keeper with McCarthy as back up.

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A memory still haunts me from my childhood – hearing a big bunch of the Milton Road lot singing, with Dave McLaren right in front of them, “We’ve got the worst goalkeeper in the land”. It still sickens me to think of it.

I’ve always leant towards McCarthy because Forster’s failings are so fundamental – weak positioning, poor reading and anticipation, very slow feet, and a reluctance to dominate aerially despite being 6’ 18”. Many of his saves have involved throwing out an arm or leg at the very last second, rather than making what should be a regular save by reading the play and adjusting his position. It looks good but it really isn’t. However, his distribution is far better than McCarthy’s.

Technically, McCarthy is much better but he just doesn’t seem to get the job done consistently. He’s prone to silly errors, especially when the ball is at is feet, and his near-post coverage can be abysmal. I’ll never understand how a Premier League keeper can go so long, with everyday coaching, without improving his piss poor distribution.

Two important things are not covered in TWar’s excellent summary – communication and psyche.

Forster beats McCarthy hands down on communication. Whenever I’ve seem them play I’ve heard Forster shouting at his defenders, but McCarthy has been as quiet as a church mouse. Good communication from the keeper can make a weak defence better than it really is. Lacking communication can make a good defence worse.

To me, Forster’s psyche is a major weakness. When things started to go pear-shaped for him he crashed, and it impacted him off the field as well. McCarthy, on the other hand, seems to maintain an even keel even if he’s made three straight errors. Keepers have to be mentally tough, and I don't think Forster is.

So, on balance I’d pick McCarthy ahead of Forster. I’d be okay if Ralph picks Forster first, but I hope he’ll be ready to switch as soon as Forster starts looking fragile, because he’s not great at riding down-spells.

But the very first thing I’d do is replace our goalkeeping coaches. When fundamental weaknesses are allowed to continue year after year, and when we never seem to develop young keepers within the academy, we have a major problem. We’ve had that major problem for years, and it really, really needs fixing.

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3 minutes ago, CanadaSaint said:

 

But the very first thing I’d do is replace our goalkeeping coaches. When fundamental weaknesses are allowed to continue year after year, and when we never seem to develop young keepers within the academy, we have a major problem. We’ve had that major problem for years, and it really, really needs fixing.

We replaced our goalkeeping coachin 2019, Andrew Sparkes is highly regarded. Don't think you can blame him for the previous years, but have to admit the jury remains out as to whether there is a marked improvement since Dave Watson was replaced. We have never, ever developed a goalkeeper in the academy; when the two best ever academy keeper graduates appear to be Michael Poke and Scott Bevan you know that there is a more fundamental issue than simply bringing in a new goalkeeper coach. My personal view is that the Academy system is not suitable for development of goalkeepers. The number of goalkeepers to have come through the Academies of Premier League teams can be counted on the fingers of one gloved hand (I'm sure MLG will prove me wrong of course). Its about time we recognised that and relied on signing keepers from elsewhere, including having an overage keeper for the B team.

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5 minutes ago, VectisSaint said:

We replaced our goalkeeping coachin 2019, Andrew Sparkes is highly regarded. Don't think you can blame him for the previous years, but have to admit the jury remains out as to whether there is a marked improvement since Dave Watson was replaced. We have never, ever developed a goalkeeper in the academy; when the two best ever academy keeper graduates appear to be Michael Poke and Scott Bevan you know that there is a more fundamental issue than simply bringing in a new goalkeeper coach. My personal view is that the Academy system is not suitable for development of goalkeepers. The number of goalkeepers to have come through the Academies of Premier League teams can be counted on the fingers of one gloved hand (I'm sure MLG will prove me wrong of course). Its about time we recognised that and relied on signing keepers from elsewhere, including having an overage keeper for the B team.

I appreciate your perspectives, and it's certainly true that most PL keepers are bought rather than developed within the club. But somebody's developing them.

The "judge me by what I achieve" maxim has to hold true in coaching - for Ralph and all of his support staff. I would argue that we have not seen any improvement in our keepers, but a continuation of longstanding weaknesses. Many of those are in coachable areas. Sparkes may be highly regarded but that's not a good reflection on him.

I don't blame him for the keepers we've got. I was horrified when we first signed Forster (never mind when we boosted his contract), and I think we (Ralph) gave up on Gunn too quickly. But there is good reason to question how effective our goalkeeping coaching is.

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48 minutes ago, CanadaSaint said:

A memory still haunts me from my childhood – hearing a big bunch of the Milton Road lot singing, with Dave McLaren right in front of them, “We’ve got the worst goalkeeper in the land”. It still sickens me to think of it.

I’ve always leant towards McCarthy because Forster’s failings are so fundamental – weak positioning, poor reading and anticipation, very slow feet, and a reluctance to dominate aerially despite being 6’ 18”. Many of his saves have involved throwing out an arm or leg at the very last second, rather than making what should be a regular save by reading the play and adjusting his position. It looks good but it really isn’t. However, his distribution is far better than McCarthy’s.

Technically, McCarthy is much better but he just doesn’t seem to get the job done consistently. He’s prone to silly errors, especially when the ball is at is feet, and his near-post coverage can be abysmal. I’ll never understand how a Premier League keeper can go so long, with everyday coaching, without improving his piss poor distribution.

Two important things are not covered in TWar’s excellent summary – communication and psyche.

Forster beats McCarthy hands down on communication. Whenever I’ve seem them play I’ve heard Forster shouting at his defenders, but McCarthy has been as quiet as a church mouse. Good communication from the keeper can make a weak defence better than it really is. Lacking communication can make a good defence worse.

To me, Forster’s psyche is a major weakness. When things started to go pear-shaped for him he crashed, and it impacted him off the field as well. McCarthy, on the other hand, seems to maintain an even keel even if he’s made three straight errors. Keepers have to be mentally tough, and I don't think Forster is.

So, on balance I’d pick McCarthy ahead of Forster. I’d be okay if Ralph picks Forster first, but I hope he’ll be ready to switch as soon as Forster starts looking fragile, because he’s not great at riding down-spells.

But the very first thing I’d do is replace our goalkeeping coaches. When fundamental weaknesses are allowed to continue year after year, and when we never seem to develop young keepers within the academy, we have a major problem. We’ve had that major problem for years, and it really, really needs fixing.

This sums it up for me. I agree that it feels like we need to do something about our goalkeeper coaching. I seem to remember that a few years ago we brought in the England goalie coach but FF seemed to go downhill instead of getting better! Nevertheless, I don't know if that is the same coach or coaches that we have now.

I also agree that AM is better in a few respects than FF. While I do appreciate the statistical analysis presented in another post above, I think that is only part of the story and doesn't give any weighting tom the relative merits of each keeper. It also only gives and average rather that what each keeper is like at their best. For me the ultimate question is which one is technically the better shot stopper and I believe that is AM. Nevertheless, his big problem at times seems to be concentration and consistency.

In terms of distribution, FF is very poor but has learned that he just has to get rid of it by booting it up the field. AM is mildly better at following the preferred approach of passing to a defender, but as others have said he isn't actually very good at this. I sometimes wish he would just do what FF does and ignore the club preference for passing it out to a defender and instead just boot it up the field!

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3 hours ago, TWar said:

Here that is, but given we are stuck with these guys it doesn't make for happy reading!

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

Forsters inability to dominate his area when crosses come in has alway baffled me.  He is a giant and could easily clear the players out of the way.  Collecting crosses takes the pressure off the defence, and McCarthy has shown he can do that.  Both are capable of making really good saves, so quite why they both have poor records is either they are both poor, or we really don’t defend well as a team.

McCarthy might just edge it with the ball at their feet, but they are both poor.  Romario for me.

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Forster for me just because well he used to be very good, whereas McCarthy has been thoroughly meh for years, he's had the odd game like a good Championship player might but can never keep those levels up and he makes more errors imo and as alluded above Forster at least talks and organises the defence well, plus well he's just a big lump.

So it's not a great situation but I feel with Forster there is a hope that a run of games and things go his way maybe he can rediscover his form of old and we'd at least then probably have a decent PL keeper. 

But really we need a new one. I think the club knows this but also know that both of them are on too much money and no one will take them so we have to basically get them off the books before we can add a new keeper. 

 

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The fact we’re discussing this highlights the managers dereliction of duty. He should have sorted this out , no question. I assumed the rotation pony last season was to decide which one to move on, but it appears not. It wouldn’t  surprise me if he chops and changes again this season, and then wonders why we concede so many. Shocking. 

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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5 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The fact we’re discussing this highlights the managers dereliction of duty. He should have sorted this out , no question. I assumed the rotation pony last season was to decide which one to move on, but it appears not. It wouldn’t  surprise me if he chops and changes again this season, and then wonders why we concede so many. Shocking. 

I don't blame Ralph for this. He's been given 2 shit keepers to pick from, and no money for a replacement. I suspect both were put in the shop window last season but as nobody took either, I'd imagine he'll pick one and stick with him until he has a run of mares, then throws the other one in, and repeat. 

Edited by egg
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7 minutes ago, egg said:

I don't blame Ralph for this. He's been given 2 shit keepers to pick from, and no money for a replacement. I suspect both were put in the shop window last season but as nobody took either, I'd imagine he'll pick one and stick with him until he has a run of mares, then throws the other one in, and repeat. 

No money?
 

Choices have been made. The buck stops with the manager. 

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5 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

No money?
 

Choices have been made. The buck stops with the manager. 

I literally cannot get my head around your view that this is on the manager. How is the goalkeepers contract situation and financial situation anything to do with Ralph?

He's been dealt a shit card with two very average keepers (Well, 3 before Gunn left) on massive money. As I've said before, if no one takes either Forster or McCarthy in this window I cannot see how we can realistically move for another goal keeper.

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7 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

No money?
 

Choices have been made. The buck stops with the manager. 

Choices? Unless you're saying a keeper was a priority over a replacement for Ings or Bertrand, I'm not sure what choice you mean. 

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Just now, S-Clarke said:

I literally cannot get my head around your view that this is on the manager. How is the goalkeepers contract situation and financial situation anything to do with Ralph?

He's been dealt a shit card with two very average keepers (Well, 3 before Gunn left) on massive money. As I've said before, if no one takes either Forster or McCarthy in this window I cannot see how we can realistically move for another goal keeper.

Bingo. Ralph has been dealt a shit hand with the keepers. He's got a choice between crap and crap. 

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4 minutes ago, egg said:

Choices? Unless you're saying a keeper was a priority over a replacement for Ings or Bertrand, I'm not sure what choice you mean. 

I think that's what he's been getting at -it's Ralphs fault because he's prioritised other positions over the goalie etc.

But actually having a LB or a striker is more important than having neither, unless we want to go into the season with Long up top and Moussa at LB - but at least we have a new goal keeper? Wrong way round imo.

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