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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

The relegation picture is start to get quite interesting. I still think it will be Burnley, Norwich and Watford...but there are four or five other teams involved. 

Burnley have games in hand and are no mugs, and Weghorst looks like a very good replacement for Wood. I think they'll be fine. I think Brentford have shot their wad and will join Norwich and Watford.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
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1 hour ago, SNSUN said:

No Vardy no party. Poor transfer dealings have cost them.

They've kind of hit the wall we did a few years ago. They had a few seasons of being absolutely spot on scouting wise with the likes of Ndidi, Tilliemans, Perreria, Fofana etc.

Then they got a bit crazy and spent silly money on Vestergaard, Somoure and Daka who have not impacted in any way really.

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Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

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36 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

They've kind of hit the wall we did a few years ago. 

However, the big difference is they  won the league & cup before hitting that wall. It’s probably the thing that pisses me off the most, not that we didn’t win the league (as that was a once in a generation thing) but that 2 fucking decent managers, with really really good players, we fucked up the cups badly. Poch & Koemans side could beat anyone on the day but we never really went full out in the cups. I know it’s not trendy, but it’s fucking frustrating for old cunts like me. 

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Saint_clark

Saint_clark

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8 hours ago, cloggy saint said:

I don't get it, I keep reading that Man utd are crap, a team in disarray, an unhappy dressing room, and yet they are now a clear 4th.

As has been said, teams below them have games in hand. Arsenal, wolves and spurs can all go above them depending on results which would put them down in 7th. 

And with the money they've spent they should be challenging for the title. United are now stuck in a vicious cycle where any manager they bring in needs instant success or they'll soon be out again, but the squad of players is such a mix match of styles that they need to give someone time to rebuild. New manager, old players don't fit, new signings, don't gel immediately, new manager, old players don't fit, new signings...repeat infinitely. 

But they'll never back a manager fully if it means selling the big money signings at a loss. It's a shambles really. 

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Sheaf Saint

Sheaf Saint

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Posted
16 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

Does this translate as: “anything that f*cks over SaudiCastle & Everton” which is my default end of season wish. 

Everton's next 3 are Man C (H), Spurs (A) and Wolves (H). 

On current form it's hard to see them getting any points from that. 

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SuperSAINT said:

re: the relegation run-in…

Brentford’s next 3 matches…. 👀 

image.thumb.jpeg.1f5f95de4a4e69a366cb887d27896bd5.jpeg

They're either safe as houses by mid march or sunk right into the mire.

I reckon they'll be ok. Same as Everton no matter how 'close' they look atm. I still can't see a way out for Burnley, Watford or Norwich to be honest. They'll win here and there but they've got too much to do.

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Saint Keef

Saint Keef

Posted
Posted

I reckon Burnley might be turning a corner and all of a sudden that puts pressure on Saudicastle, Everrtoffee, Leeds and Brentford and with pressure comes nervousness and that can play havoc with performances. I can see one of those four dropping into the bottom three. I don't mind which one of those four.....as long as it's Newcastle. 

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Posted

I'm such a bedwetter, I'm already looking to which three teams are going to be worse than us next season so we can escape relegation.

It's the main reason why I want Brentford, Burnley, Norwich & Watford to stay up (or as many of them as possible) at the expense of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton etc

 

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Lee On Solent Saint

Lee On Solent Saint

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

I'm such a bedwetter, I'm already looking to which three teams are going to be worse than us next season so we can escape relegation.

It's the main reason why I want Brentford, Burnley, Norwich & Watford to stay up (or as many of them as possible) at the expense of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton etc

 

Would love Leeds,Newcastle and Everton. Never happen but would be great 

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HarvSFC

HarvSFC

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SaintBobby said:

I'm such a bedwetter, I'm already looking to which three teams are going to be worse than us next season so we can escape relegation.

It's the main reason why I want Brentford, Burnley, Norwich & Watford to stay up (or as many of them as possible) at the expense of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton etc

 

Looking at who's coming up, Fulham are. You never really know what to expect from them. They usually spend good money and go down. It's got to click at some point, you'd imagine? They aren't like the yo-yoing Norwich, unfortunately.

It would be good if the south coast's number one club, Bournemouth failed to come up after gambling on promotion on deadline day, although they're four points clear with two games in hand. Can see them going straight back down under Parker.

Then QPR, Blackburn and Huddersfield are all clubs who are having unexpected seasons given the resources available to the trio, they may not survive up here though and Sheffield United won't likely stay up with Heckingbottom having another shot.

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LiberalCommunist

LiberalCommunist

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SaintBobby said:

I'm such a bedwetter, I'm already looking to which three teams are going to be worse than us next season so we can escape relegation.

It's the main reason why I want Brentford, Burnley, Norwich & Watford to stay up (or as many of them as possible) at the expense of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton etc

 

Nothing wrong with that at all.

As soon as we missed out on the L1 play-offs, I wanted rid of the strongest team in preperation for our next assault.

Its only natural. 

What makes it more important this year is, Newcastle will affect all of the transfer fees this summer for the whole of the EPL.

That will cause us trouble. If they get a year in the wasteland, it would be good for football in general. 

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SuperSAINT

SuperSAINT

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Posted
1 hour ago, trousers said:

Didn't want to start a new thread so somewhat off topic, but given the plethora of footballing experts amongst the Saintsweb intelligentsia, one assumes Hampshire Live will be deluged with applications from here...? ;)

 

They should be looking for a Bournemouth writer and getting Jacob Tanswell to cover Saints.

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Saint Keef

Saint Keef

Posted
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3 hours ago, Saint Keef said:

I reckon Burnley might be turning a corner and all of a sudden that puts pressure on Saudicastle, Everrtoffee, Leeds and Brentford and with pressure comes nervousness and that can play havoc with performances. I can see one of those four dropping into the bottom three. I don't mind which one of those four.....as long as it's Newcastle. 

Quoting myself here, weird I know, but if it wasn't to be Newcastle (please let it be), then I would settle for the mighty dug outs, Everton. That would be funny.

I met some Everton fans at the services on the A34 after the game. We got chatting, and I tried to be diplomatic with them, in the way that I said I thought they'd been absolutely crap and that I was expecting more from them. They were actually decent lads.....and totally agreed. They are genuinely worried, saying that Lampard has inherited a "fucking piss poor squad". They were actually very complimentary about Saints overall organisation and in particular the role of our full-backs. They still had a four and a half hour journey in front of them. I said the only silver lining was, if they carry on playing the way they did against us, they won't have to make the same journey next year!!! 🤣

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nta786

nta786

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5 minutes ago, Saint Keef said:

Quoting myself here, weird I know, but if it wasn't to be Newcastle (please let it be), then I would settle for the mighty dug outs, Everton. That would be funny.

I met some Everton fans at the services on the A34 after the game. We got chatting, and I tried to be diplomatic with them, in the way that I said I thought they'd been absolutely crap and that I was expecting more from them. They were actually decent lads.....and totally agreed. They are genuinely worried, saying that Lampard has inherited a "fucking piss poor squad". They were actually very complimentary about Saints overall organisation and in particular the role of our full-backs. They still had a four and a half hour journey in front of them. I said the only silver lining was, if they carry on playing the way they did against us, they won't have to make the same journey next year!!! 🤣

Yep, Everton down would also be hilarious. I think one of the few never to have been relegated from the PL, might even bring some of their fans down a peg and I'd be very interested in their potential fallout re. players and manager.

Newcastle going down would delay the inevitable but they'd just spend their way back up to the PL, probably break the 90 point barrier too and have a fun season anyway

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Sheaf Saint

Sheaf Saint

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54 minutes ago, nta786 said:

 I'd be very interested in their potential fallout re. players and manager.

I don't think that's even their biggest worry. They are currently building a new £500m stadium at the docks. The financial fallout if they get relegated would be catastrophic.

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Holmes_and_Watson

Holmes_and_Watson

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

I'm such a bedwetter, I'm already looking to which three teams are going to be worse than us next season so we can escape relegation.

It's the main reason why I want Brentford, Burnley, Norwich & Watford to stay up (or as many of them as possible) at the expense of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton etc

 

Perfectly normal to want to mitigate future risks. 😊

The likes of Newcastle check both the richer and disgusting club boxes, so want them to go down more than the others.

3 hours ago, trousers said:

Didn't want to start a new thread so somewhat off topic, but given the plethora of footballing experts amongst the Saintsweb intelligentsia, one assumes Hampshire Live will be deluged with applications from here...? ;)

 

There's some Sheldon bloke who's not long joined who might be interested.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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1 hour ago, Dark Munster said:

Actually probably less than 2% all three will be. Because if one goes down the odds of survival for the other two go up.

Hmmm. Not sure that's right, is it? The odds/percentages presumably reflect the fact that 3 teams - no more and no less - will be relegated? If Leeds are, say, 23% to be relegated...it's kind of priced in that two other teams go down with them, no? It's not "well, they're a 23% chance to be relegated...but if Watford are relegated, they are only a 17% chance, if Villa are relegated they are only a 12% chance etc etc".

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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

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Posted
33 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

Hmmm. Not sure that's right, is it? The odds/percentages presumably reflect the fact that 3 teams - no more and no less - will be relegated? If Leeds are, say, 23% to be relegated...it's kind of priced in that two other teams go down with them, no? It's not "well, they're a 23% chance to be relegated...but if Watford are relegated, they are only a 17% chance, if Villa are relegated they are only a 12% chance etc etc".

If they were independent events that's true. But if one team is destined to go down that would affect the odds of survival for the others (they would all improve). For example, Newcastle currently at 36% is calculated based on all other possibilities for who the other 2 relegated teams could be. But, for example, if we have a crystal ball and know Saints are to more or less lose all our remaining matches and go down, then Newcastle would only have to finish above 2 crap teams rather than 3, so their odds of survival would go up. That's a silly extreme example, but hopefully gives an idea of what I'm babbling on about.

It reminds me of the 2 goats and car behind 3 doors game: knowing a door where one goat is affects the odds as opposed to not knowing.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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9 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

If they were independent events that's true. But if one team is destined to go down that would affect the odds of survival for the others (they would all improve). For example, Newcastle currently at 36% is calculated based on all other possibilities for who the other 2 relegated teams could be. But, for example, if we have a crystal ball and know Saints are to more or less lose all our remaining matches and go down, then Newcastle would only have to finish above 2 crap teams rather than 3, so their odds of survival would go up. That's a silly extreme example, but hopefully gives an idea of what I'm babbling on about.

It reminds me of the 2 goats and car behind 3 doors game: knowing a door where one goat is affects the odds as opposed to not knowing.

I think I get the point you're driving at, but I'm not grasping it wholly.

Leeds have a 23% chance of being relegated. This is made up of a 2% chance they are relegated with Newcastle and Everton and a 21% chance that they are relegated with one or neither of Newcastle and Everton, and a 77% chance they aren't relegated at all.

If I'm not right on this, what is the 23% made up of?

 

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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

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Posted
9 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

I think I get the point you're driving at, but I'm not grasping it wholly.

Leeds have a 23% chance of being relegated. This is made up of a 2% chance they are relegated with Newcastle and Everton and a 21% chance that they are relegated with one or neither of Newcastle and Everton, and a 77% chance they aren't relegated at all.

If I'm not right on this, what is the 23% made up of?

 

Hi @SaintBobby: Here is an example that perhaps makes it clearer. This'll be my last post on this, I don't want to bore other posters to death (that's MLG's job 😉).

Suppose there are 4 teams, A, B, C and D who are the only ones who could get relegated, and all four have equal chance of going down. Then they each have a 3 out of 4 = 75% chance of going down (3 relegation spots for 4 teams). Suppose we all hate teams A, B and C and want all three of them to go down. What are the chances of A, B and C all going down? By your calculation it's 75% X 75% X 75% = 42%. But that's incorrect, the odds of all three going down is the same as the odds of team D surviving, which is 25%.

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nta786

nta786

Posted
Posted

Another medical emergency up at Sunderland tonight.

Also, they are losing 1-0 at home currently to Burton Albion, and also didn't realise a 39 year-old Defoe started for them.

I wonder how they must be feeling when you throw in Newcastle's new ownership situation too. 

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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

Hi @SaintBobby: Here is an example that perhaps makes it clearer. This'll be my last post on this, I don't want to bore other posters to death (that's MLG's job 😉).

Suppose there are 4 teams, A, B, C and D who are the only ones who could get relegated, and all four have equal chance of going down. Then they each have a 3 out of 4 = 75% chance of going down (3 relegation spots for 4 teams). Suppose we all hate teams A, B and C and want all three of them to go down. What are the chances of A, B and C all going down? By your calculation it's 75% X 75% X 75% = 42%. But that's incorrect, the odds of all three going down is the same as the odds of team D surviving, which is 25%.

Exactly, because the event is not independent. One definitely going down effects the odds for the other three.

You could take it as 75% one of teams A, B, or C goes down. But then, imagining that one of them does go down (for example C). There is then a 66% chance one of A and B go down as their are 3 teams left with equal chances. Then after that it is 50% whether the third team go.

3/4 × 2/3 × 1/2 = 9/12 × 8/12 × 6/12 = 432/1728 = 1/4 or 25%

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