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CB Fry

CB Fry

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Posted

Absolutely delighted Newcastle fucked up again. Couldn't beat either of Norwich or Watford (or Cambridge) at home with all of their brilliant fans and everything. Pathetic.

Leeds away and then maybe a new-manager-bounce Everton at home coming up...

 

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Billy the Kidd

Billy the Kidd

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14 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

That is a killer result for Newcastle, they really needed to win that to be honest. Massive game in a few weeks against Everton at home.

Everton sinking like a stone. Not sure Rafa has any more time there, it's toxic at goodison at the mo.

Haven't Newcastle now got lots of top sides in the next month?

I can't see Rafa lasting think he will be gone in a few days (or hours).

I still can't understand why our game v Newcastle hasn't been rearranged yet, I hope they have to play 3 games in 6 days, bloody cheats.

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Dman

Dman

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Lighthouse said:

Everton are blatantly going to cling to Rafa for four more games, before sacking him and bringing in a new guy just before their trip to St Mary’s.

I hope they do. He’s doing a good job there…😬

Edited by Dman
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Dman

Dman

Posted
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5 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Absolutely delighted Newcastle fucked up again. Couldn't beat either of Norwich or Watford (or Cambridge) at home with all of their brilliant fans and everything. Pathetic.

Leeds away and then maybe a new-manager-bounce Everton at home coming up...

 

Really bad result for them and I think any players looking to move there might now have a different opinion and hold off until the summer. 
 

I still think they’ll stay up, just. That’s more down to how poor Watford are more than anything though. 

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AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Absolutely delighted Newcastle fucked up again. Couldn't beat either of Norwich or Watford (or Cambridge) at home with all of their brilliant fans and everything. Pathetic.

Leeds away and then maybe a new-manager-bounce Everton at home coming up...

 

But they get 50k every other week though....and they love a scoring No.9 up there...obviously more than any other set of fans, because they are just wacky

Edited by AlexLaw76
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TWar

TWar

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2 minutes ago, Dman said:

To be honest the only person I’ve seen slagging Him off is TWar. He’s a top, top player. 

He has the occasional good game but massively flatters to deceive. There is a reason he has fewer goal contributions than Nathan Redmond.

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Dman

Dman

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Just now, TWar said:

He has the occasional good game but massively flatters to deceive. There is a reason he has fewer goal contributions than Nathan Redmond.

How often do you watch him? Or are you making your opinion on ‘stats’ and a poor game against us?

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TWar

TWar

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Dman said:

How often do you watch him? Or are you making your opinion on ‘stats’ and a poor game against us?

I've seen him a few times this season, he has a few good moments, flicks and tricks and what have you, but he is a luxury player with little end product. He is a lot like Gaston Ramirez, quite skillful but limited pace and end product. That's why he has only got 1 goal and 3 assists this season.

Out of interest, how often have you watched him? Did you get a good look at him like you did Bednarek under Hughes?

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Dman

Dman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TWar said:

I've seen him a few times this season, he has a few good moments, flicks and tricks and what have you, but he is a luxury player with little end product. He is a lot like Gaston Ramirez, quite skillful but limited pace and end product. That's why he has only got 1 goal and 3 assists this season.

Do you think Nathan Redmond is better?

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Toadhall Saint

Toadhall Saint

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28 minutes ago, TWar said:

He has the occasional good game but massively flatters to deceive. There is a reason he has fewer goal contributions than Nathan Redmond.

I could go with the first sentence but would like you to confirm the stats for the second ie goal contributions per appearance/minutes or whatever fandangled contraption is used.

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TWar

TWar

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2 minutes ago, Dman said:

Do you think Nathan Redmond is better?

Has been this season. Redmond is super patchy ranging from a 2.5/10 player to a 6.5/10. He is quietly putting together a reasonable season, firm 6 imo. Buendia is a bang average 5/10 player who tricks people into thinking he's good by having a bit of flair, don't mean anything if you can't put the ball in the net or set up someone else to do so, and he is demonstrably worse at that than Redmond this season.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TWar said:

Has been this season. Redmond is super patchy ranging from a 2.5/10 player to a 6.5/10. He is quietly putting together a reasonable season, firm 6 imo. Buendia is a bang average 5/10 player who tricks people into thinking he's good by having a bit of flair, don't mean anything if you can't put the ball in the net or set up someone else to do so, and he is demonstrably worse at that than Redmond this season.

I think you're in the danger of looking to deep into all this with stats. In every corner of the world, Buendia is on a different level to Redmond.

If we had Buendia he would be in the team ahead of Redmond.

I don't think Redmond has been much above average this season, he kinda like you said ranges from absolutely abject (i.e today) and average. He's one of the first players I'd get rid of and replace, so I don't buy this argument at all.

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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Toadhall Saint said:

I could go with the first sentence but would like you to confirm the stats for the second ie goal contributions per appearance/minutes or whatever fandangled contraption is used.

He has 1 goal and 3 assists in 1229 minutes, 4 contributions or 1 contribution per 310 mins or so.

Redmond has 2 goals and 5 assists in  1495 mins, 7 contributions or 1 contributions every 214 minutes.

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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

I think you're in the danger of looking to deep into all this with stats. In every corner of the world, Buendia is on a different level to Redmond.

If we had Buendia he would be in the team ahead of Redmond.

I don't think Redmond has been much above average this season, he kinda like you said ranges from absolutely abject (i.e today) and average. He's one of the first players I'd get rid of and replace, so I don't buy this argument at all.

I swear when it comes to our players people are all about end product and don't care how about anything beyond that but with other teams you can get away with one goal and three assists in 20 games or so and everyone on here is saying how good they are. If he played for us you all would be calling him useless and comparing him to Boufal and Ramirez who also looked fancy but did very little.

Also, for the record, this isn't an endorsement of Redmond who I think is definitely someone we need to upgrade, it is using him as an example to point out one of the most overrated players in the league.

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Dman

Dman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TWar said:

I swear when it comes to our players people are all about end product and don't care how about anything beyond that but with other teams you can get away with one goal and three assists in 20 games or so and everyone on here is saying how good they are. If he played for us you all would be calling him useless and comparing him to Boufal and Ramirez who also looked fancy but did very little.

Also, for the record, this isn't an endorsement of Redmond who I think is definitely someone we need to upgrade, it is using him as an example to point out one of the most overrated players in the league.

Overrated by everyone but you… you’re far to smart to be tricked by his sliky skills. 

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Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, TWar said:

He has 1 goal and 3 assists in 1229 minutes, 4 contributions or 1 contribution per 310 mins or so.

Redmond has 2 goals and 5 assists in  1495 mins, 7 contributions or 1 contributions every 214 minutes.

Considering one of redmonds goals and assists came against Newport in an 8-0 win in the league cup and the other goal came against championship Swansea whilst Buendias only cup appearances have been against Man United and Chelsea that gives a slightly inflated view of Redmonds stats v Buedina. Yet again proving stats only tell part of the story. 
 

premier league only and it doesn’t favour him so well

redmond G0 A4 1295 mins

Buedina G1 A3 1150 mins

 

 

Edited by Turkish
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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dman said:

Overrated by everyone but you… you’re far to smart to be tricked by his sliky skills. 

A lot of people have pointed this out, actually, a number of Villa fans wanted him benched when Bailly was fit in order to play a front 3 of Bailly, Watkins, Coutinho. I think one of your biggest issues is you often assume your position to be the consensus when it absolutely isn't.

34 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Considering one of redmonds goals and assists came against Newport in an 8-0 win in the league cup and the other goal came against championship Swansea whilst Buendias only cup appearances have been against Man United and Chelsea that gives a slightly inflated view of Redmonds stats v Buedina. Yet again proving stats only tell part of the story. 
 

premier league only and it doesn’t favour him so well

redmond G0 A4 1295 mins

Buedina G1 A3 1150 mins

 

 

Even if you do discount league cup games Redmond still levels Buendia for contributions (and Buendia would be projected to get like 0.3 goals more if he'd played the same minutes), I doubt many people would be bigging up Redmond this season. Redmond, as I said, is just an example. Adam Armstrong has the same amount too and people slag him off constantly. Over his time at Villa, Buendia has basically the same goals + assists per minute that Theo Walcott has since his most recent spell at saints (0.28 vs 0.31 per 90, in the league as well, since you don't like cup competitions). He has half the contributions of Ward-Prowse who plays as a holding mid (and DMan seems to think isn't good).

What I am trying to get at is regardless of the comparison, Buendia's return at Villa is the sort of return which would not impress you at all if a saints player did it and just because you have seen a couple of snapshots of him and thought "wow he looks lively" doesn't mean he is actually very good, as shown by how few goals and assists he has mustered.

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nta786

nta786

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TWar said:

He has 1 goal and 3 assists in 1229 minutes, 4 contributions or 1 contribution per 310 mins or so.

Redmond has 2 goals and 5 assists in  1495 mins, 7 contributions or 1 contributions every 214 minutes.

Look I like statistics and all as much as the next person but stats always need context or else they can be cherry picked to favour specific arguments.

These contributions, who were they against for instance? Or are they matchwinning assists or in consolation goals when the game is done? What if Buendia’s passes aren’t capitalised on by his strikers - that wouldn’t be his fault. What about the quality of these goals, did someone else do the hard work to lay off a tap in? (I could go on forever to be honest but I’ll leave it there)

Kevin De Bruyne is one of the best in the league but his stats aren’t actually amazing, but his chance creation is so good, as well as his vision and awareness that he often gets the “pre-assists”, things that stats don’t always encapsulate.

Edited by nta786
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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, nta786 said:

Look I like statistics and all as much as the next person but stats always need context or else they can be cherry picked to favour specific arguments.

These contributions, who were they against for instance? Or are they matchwinning assists or in consolation goals when the game is done? What if Buendia’s assists aren’t capitalised on by his strikers - that wouldn’t be his fault. What about the quality of these goals, did someone else do the hard work to lay off a tap in? (I could go on forever to be honest but I’ll leave it there)

Kevin De Bruyne is one of the best in the league but his stats aren’t actually amazing, but his chance creation is so good, as well as his vision and awareness that he often gets the “pre-assists”, things that stats don’t always encapsulate.

Redmonds were against Leeds, Burnley, Leicester and Brighton as well as Swansea and Newport in the cup.

Buendias were against Brentford twice, West Ham and Leiceister. Take off the cup competitions for Redmond and they have the same number of contributions rather than Redmond having 3 more, showing they have had the same quality of season rather than Redmond being better. Being the same quality as Redmond is still not much of an endorsement though.

As for were they match winners. Every single one of Redmonds was impactful. The contribution against leeds was for the only goal and the remaining three all took place in draws which would have been losses without Redmonds input. Buendia scored an important goal in a 2-1 win at Leicester and in a draw against Brentford but his other two were in losses and therefore would not have been impactful if they hadn't gone in to the overall result.

Regarding adjusting for chance quality regardless of striker quality, we use expected assists for this. Redmond is 31st in the league for expected assists with 3.31. Buendia is 57th with 2.24 so Redmond is ahead adjusting for striker quality on expected assists.

Regarding tap ins vs good finishes, I disagree a tap in is always an easier goal to score as being in the right spot is an important and difficult skill. Either way though, Buendia has underperformed xG by 0.48 goals and Redmond has underperformed by 1.46. Both are poor finishers, Redmond is significantly worst. We know finishing is easily Redmonds worst trait but he has been much more creative than Buendia this season to make up for it who also is a poor finisher.

I'm sure you could go on, but these things are pretty easily answerable with a little research.

---

The bottom line for me is that if Buendia was at saints and we spent £35m on him for 4 goal contributions over half way through the season, we'd be disappointed. Walcott got 6 in just over half a season (was injured for most of the second half and was involved in 21 games) and people begged not to get him on a perm. It seems other peoples players have much lower standards though.

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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Stop digging 

Look who's come out of hibernation. Did you notice JWP goal today? Guess he can't be all bad. Or were you busy watching your guy Eddie Howe guiding another team to the championship?

 

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Dman

Dman

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, TWar said:

Look who's come out of hibernation. Did you notice JWP goal today? Guess he can't be all bad. Or were you busy watching your guy Eddie Howe guiding another team to the championship?

 

Perhaps Newcastle will snap up Rafa once he’s sacked from Everton for doing such a great job. 

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TWar

TWar

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2 minutes ago, Dman said:

Perhaps Newcastle will snap up Rafa once he’s sacked from Everton for doing such a great job. 

Rafa did a fair bit better at Newcastle than Howe is doing... Ask a newcastle fan if they'd have Rafa back over Howe and I think most would. Ofcourse neither of them are at the level of the current San Marino manager...

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Dman

Dman

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1 minute ago, TWar said:

Rafa did a fair bit better at Newcastle than Howe is doing... Ask a newcastle fan if they'd have Rafa back over Howe and I think most would. Ofcourse neither of them are at the level of the current San Marino manager...

Far better job…. He joined mid season and took them down…

Anyhow, I don’t suspect he’ll be on the market as he’s doing a good job, right? 

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TWar

TWar

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1 minute ago, Dman said:

Far better job…. He joined mid season and took them down…

Anyhow, I don’t suspect he’ll be on the market as he’s doing a good job, right? 

They'll sack him, the board need a scapegoat for the fact they ran the club into the ground with years of poor signings for big money racking up a huge FFP deficit so they have 0 money to spend anymore. Fans will blame it all on an acclaimed Champions League winning manager as this same "everything is the managers fault" mentality pervades a lot of the sillier fans across clubs, few go as far as to say that their manager is worse than that of San Marino, but we have some especially silly fans.

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Dman

Dman

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42 minutes ago, TWar said:

They'll sack him, the board need a scapegoat for the fact they ran the club into the ground with years of poor signings for big money racking up a huge FFP deficit so they have 0 money to spend anymore. Fans will blame it all on an acclaimed Champions League winning manager as this same "everything is the managers fault" mentality pervades a lot of the sillier fans across clubs, few go as far as to say that their manager is worse than that of San Marino, but we have some especially silly fans.

Still digging. Stop trying to deflect the fact you’ve been called out by making things up again. 

As for an ‘acclaimed champions league winner’, that was over 15 years ago. 

And I get that despite the 30+m he’s spent this window, they had limit resources to improve in the summer. But this is still pretty much the same side that finished 10th last Season. 

so again, do you think, with 1 win in 13, Rafa is still doing a good job at Everton? 

 

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TWar

TWar

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Stop trying to deflect the fact you’ve been called out by making things up again. 

As for an ‘acclaimed champions league winner’, that was over 15 years ago. 

And I get that despite the 30+m he’s spent this window, they had limit resources to improve in the summer. But this is still pretty much the same side that finished 10th last Season. 

so again, do you think, with 1 win in 13, Rafa is still doing a good job at Everton? 

 

Everton have been missing DCL and Richarlison most of the season and Digne for a good chunk too, so no, it isn't the same side that finished 10th...

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Dman

Dman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TWar said:

Everton have been missing DCL and Richarlison most of the season and Digne for a good chunk too, so no, it isn't the same side that finished 10th...

Still digging. A simple yes or no would do. 

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TWar

TWar

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4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Still digging. A simple yes or no would do. 

Why type a bunch of nonsense and then ask for just the answer to a question? Obviously I'm going to answer the nonsense too.

And no, I think since I said that he has lost the dressing room. He was doing decently well when he was lacking his best players and still maintaining a decent mid table position (I think 11th or 12th when I said it), also having got two dirt cheap signings (Gray and Townsend) playing significantly above the quality they had when they joined. Since then he has had a falling out with Digne which will cost them greatly and other players are clearly turning on him. He was doing a good job early and even now the poor league position isn't remotely his fault, but now it's time to go, I don't think he can come back from here. He deserves a better run club as his next job.

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verlaine1979

verlaine1979

Posted
Posted

Jacob Ramsey looks annoyingly good for Villa. Seen him twice and he just has so much more ability to impact a game than Redmond or Tella (or any of our other attacking midfielders).

When you see a 20 year old kid like that imposing himself on a game against United, you realise just how limited our youth players have been in recent years.

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Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

It is madness that Norwich - who have been appalling - are 3rd bottom and only 1 point from safety.

If course, that is aided by them having played more than anyone else (4 more than Burnley), with Newcastle and Watford both being shite

Not that appalling. They beat us and we’ve got a better squad than Villa,  is they’ve just beat the genius champions league winner Benitez and the incredible job he’s doing. 

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