Southampton - A statistical analysis (20/21 edition)

TWar · 30 May, 2021

Hi everyone. Last year I compiled and posted a statistical analysis of our season and a lot of you seemed to really enjoy it. I will open up this years one with a disclaimer, however. This is a post about the statistics of Southamptons season and will use statistical techniques such as expected goals/assists, if you don't see the validity in these methods this post won't be of any interest to you. I completely respect your right to the opinion that these metrics are not worth considering, but it isn't my opinion and I don't want comments beneath this to be dominated by the same two or three posters arguing about "playing football on a spreadsheet" or whatever. Especially since I have actually put quite a lot of work into this.

So without further ado:

A statistical analysis of the 20/21 Southampton season: What went right and then went horribly wrong in quick succession?

In this post I will seek to analyse our season, which players did well, which didn't, what we could require in the summer (I intend to do a later post statistically analysing summer targets/signings if people enjoy this), and possible reasons for our end-of-season collapse. Most data will be acquired from OPTA stats via a subscription to fantasyfootballscout.com, when other data is presented it will be sourced. Not everyone wants to read a boring long post, so the main interesting points will be bolded and underlined.

Squad analysis

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

Conclusion

Our goalkeepers are both dreadful, McCarthy is the worst at stopping shots in the league and Forster can't claim a ball or keep hold at all, whilst also being a well below average shot stopper. Both are worse kickers than anyone else in the league and their divergence from the mean when it comes to distribution is, frankly, staggering.

Centerbacks

This section provides more positivity than the previous, however it also offers the biggest indicator as to the reasons behind our drop in form of any. I am separately talking about centerbacks and fullbacks this season owing to having a lot to discuss for both and them having very different roles.

A lot of people noticed the first sign of our decline was the loss of Vestergaard from this side. But was he that important, and was he really performing that much better than his replacement? Yes.

A commonly implemented strategy for us this season was to funnel attacking players out wide with narrow fullbacks and deep sitting defensive midfielders and then to win the ball in the air when the crosses come in and rely on the excellent 1v1 defending of KWP and Bertrand to ensure that players couldn't run into the box from wide and play along the floor. A clever, if simple way of defending. This relies on three major facts to be true:

1) The fullbacks must be good at 1v1 defending
2) Our midfield must break up play on the edge of the box
3) The centerbacks must be able to win the ball in the air.

We shall move onto the first two points in the next sections but first lets look at our centerbacks in the air. Vestergaard won 3.26 aerial duels per 90, putting him in 11th for CBs in the league (who played over 1000 minutes). Vestergaard does not carry the full burden of aerial defending however. Bednarek wins 2.64 aerial duels per 90, still putting him very respectably in the top 25 centerbacks in the league.

Here is, however, where the problems start. Stephens is dreadful in the air. While Vestergaard and Bednarek achieved 3.26 and 2.64 aerial wins per 90, Stephens made a much less impressive 1.12. This makes puts him very low in the league for this stat. His win % is 52%, with Vestergaard and Bednarek achieving 64.5% and 64.2% respectively. As Salisu was out, losing Vestergaard completely changed how we had to defend. Stephens very poor aerial ability ment we could no longer rely on frustrating teams by forcing them to launch the ball into the box, as now that is a viable strategy. So what about Salisu, does he have what it takes to step up if/when Vestergaard leaves. Salisu wins 2.13 aerial duels per 90, not on the same level as Vestergaard or Bednarek but significantly more than Stephens.

It's not all about aerial duels though, sometimes the fullbacks or CMs won't be able to screen threats to the CBs and they will need to act on the ground. Vestergaard has a tackles won % on the ground of 74%, this is significantly higher than Bednarek or Stephens 60% and 61% respectively. This means that if Vestergaard is forced to be the last ditch option then he is a lot more reliable at it than his replacement or Bednarek, yet another reason his loss really hurt us. Salisu, as those who have watched him have noticed, is excellent at tackling on the ground. He has a tackle win % of 82%, much higher than every other player in our team, if he had played over 1000 minutes he'd be 8th best at this in the league (over 1000 minutes), as is he's played just over 850 so could still be statistically inaccurate. If he can learn to be as effective in the air as the other two, and he's not miles off, he will be a superstar.

Conclusion

We REALLY missed Vestergaard. Stephens is worse in almost every regard, especially at defending in the air which is so key to how we play. Without Vestergaard, and as said earlier, with keepers who cannot claim the ball well at all, we are not at all well served by funnelling players out wide as we did for the first half of the season. Bednarek may be poor at tackling and have a gaff in him but dropping him for Stephens would be very illadvised considering his dreadful ability at heading and not much better anything else. Salisu is a star in the making who just needs more pitch time.

Fullbacks

Our fullbacks, as stated in the previous section are essential to how we play. In this section we will discuss the decline of Ryan Bertrand and arguably our most important loss between the first and second halves of the season, Kyle Walker-Peters.

First, let's discuss Ryan Bertrand. Bertrand has been one of our most reliable and important players over the last five years of the club. He has in the past been a rock solid stalwart at the back and a genuine threat going forward, but it is obvious he is in decline. Figure 1 shows a plot of Bertrands performance since arrival, xGI numbers for 2015/16 weren't available and were hence extrapolated backwards (this is not an accurate method, do not pay too much head).

Figure 1 - Bertrands decline over time, CBI is clearances + blocks + interceptions

As you can see from this plot, Bertrand has steadily declined with regards to defensive output. He still puts up ok numbers but nowhere near the league leading quality he provided in 2015/16. Offensively we can really see what has changed with Bertrand this season specifically. He has dropped by a huge degree since last season, providing less than half the expected goal involvements of last season and well below his average since 17/18 which is the last source of accurate data. Bertrands decline in defence and attack are clear and pronounced and we are correct to move him on, with offense being the biggest decline this season specifically.

Kyle Walker-Peters is a great player, and a good shout for our most important player of the season. His tackles won % is second in the defence after Salisu at 78%, this is amongst the highest in the league for fullbacks with over 1000 minutes. Going forward, however, he is a bit of a non-entity with an expected goal involvement of 0.07, lower than Bertrand. Owing to this, with Bertrands decline our fullbacks offer very little going forward. This is an issue we will no doubt be looking to address in the summer, and a possible reason why JWP was brought into RB when we were chasing the game against West Ham in the final game of the season. So how damaging was his absence? Well, as stated above the 1v1 defending ability of our fullbacks is key to how we defend and our ability to show players outside. As stated earlier, our two replacements in that role, Bednarek and Stephens, have a tackle % of ~60% each to KWP's 78%, they were not up to the task of 1v1 defending which was required of our replacement RB.

I also tested a personal hypothesis of mine, that KWP was rushed back from injury too early and wasn't fully fit. I believe this because after coming back he looked much less effective and had a couple of other spells out the side with flare ups. Before his injury KWP had a tackle % 77% and a CBI (see fig caption for definition) of 3.34 per 90. After his injury his tackle % stayed reasonably consistent at 79% but his CBI dropped to 2.9. Not conclusive evidence but potentially indicative of a niggling injury.

Conclusions

Bertrands decline defensively has been slow and steady, his decline in attack has been swift. He needed to be replaced. KWP offers little going forward, so without Bertrand carrying that burden we don't create enough from fullback. He is however excellent defensively 1v1, something neither Bednarek or Stephens can say, therefore they were both woefully inadequate to replace him. We need quality at LB and depth in the summer. We already knew this, but the numbers support it.

Central Midfielders

JWP had an excellent season again. He lead the league for goals from set pieces and assists from set pieces, was second in the league for successful corners, and first for accuracy on target (over 10 taken). As a holding midfielder he also has done great with defensive output. He is top 14th for aerial duels won for midfielders in the premier league, 13th for tackles won, and 2nd for recoveries. I could go on about JWP but I don't think it's very productive to keep pointing out how good he is, and this review is more about where our season turned and went wrong. So we really should analyse his partners. Only two players won more tackles per 90 than Romeu this season in midfielder - Ndidi and Djenepo (surprisingly) (again only including people who have played over 1000 minutes, top in the league is Jankewitz). Romeu was also formidable for recoveries, getting 7th most recoveries in the league per 90.

So, after injury, was Diallo up to doing the job of Romeu? No. Below is a table of Diallo vs Romeu for defensive ability:

As can be seen, Romeu is well ahead on almost every metric. One which Diallo does exceed on is his tackles won % which is the best for any midfielder in the league (over 1000 minutes played), therefore if he gains the awareness of Romeu then he does have the potential to be an excellent defensive midfielder (Thanks to Cartman for pointing this out). Diallo is a better passer than Romeu with a pass % of 85% (only bettered in our team by JWP with 86%) to Romeu's 83%, and creates more chances than Romeu (0.73 vs 0.69 per 90) but he will not fill in his job when it comes to winning the ball back.

Conclusion

JWP is brilliant. Diallo can pass well and has all the tools to be an amazing player however at the moment he is not doing the job of Romeu defensively and when Romeu is out we will really miss him.

Attacking midfield

Attacking midfield was, statistically speaking, our second biggest weak spot this season. For expected goal involvement per 90, we didn't have a single player in the top 50 in the league for midfielders. Our best midfielder for creating chances was Ward-Prowse, who primarily operates as a holding midfielder, which is very poor. Below is a table of different attacking midfielders for our side and how they performed on different attacking attributes. In this CC stands for chance created and FTSP stands for final third pass completed, finishing is calculated by G - xG. This are all per 90.

One surprising stat here is the creative output of Redmond. Redmond tops our attacking midfielders for expected assists, chances created, and final third successful passes. This could be due to his playing striker more often than some others however. Armstrong is our best finisher and our best assister on paper, and carries good goal threat. It is important to note for Armstrong that he played a significant number of games as a center mid and, therefore, his attacking stats are maybe slightly misleading. Walcott is also very creative, making good chances and getting a good number of assists. Minimino has more goal threat than our other players but is not very useful elsewhere and his assist potential is very low. Djenepo and Tella are not competing at the moment, they look good but statistically speaking and without confirmation bias it does make sense why Ralph benched Tella for Redmond consistently based on their respective outputs.

Conclusion

We need improvement in this area. No one is very good, Armstrong puts up OK numbers and finishes well which inflate them somewhat but we need to sign a good attacking mid. Minimino may be an ok option for scoring goals but that could just be sample size. Tella and Djenepo need more practice, neither is at a top level yet.

Strikers

Finally, that brings us on to strikers. Danny Ings is still very good. He put up 0.48 goals per 90 this season, joint 6th with Calvert-Lewin and Bamford for players who have played over 1000 minutes. He is the second best finisher in the league when it comes to strikers (behind Iheanacho) overperforming xG by 0.13 goals per 90. If he had stayed fit all season he would have been very close to another 20 goal season. His injury likely cost us 7.6 goals, which would have been very meaningful in making our way up the table. We should try to keep Danny at all costs, when he is fit he is CL level atleast and has been for two seasons.

Adams has had an ok season too. He has scored 9 goals, which puts him 14th in the league. His finishing has again been pretty poor, underperforming xG by 0.85. He is 13th best for xG in the league, so it does appear his finishing isn't hindering him as much as it seems however. Adams is a superb creative force, getting the 6th most expected assists per 90 of any forward in the league this stat shows he is contributing greatly in his own right and not just riding Ings' coat tails

Our other forwards, Redmond and Tella, achieved 0.1 and 0.05 xA per 90. Adams also achieved 0.1 which shows Redmond is not as far behind Adams creatively as some might think, Adams is overperfoming his expected assists by 0.06 whereas Redmond is overperforming by 0.05 giving Adams a slightly better actual assist total. Ings also puts up 0.05 expected assists per 90, adding further credence to the idea he is the main man scoringwise and Adams/Redmond are very much in a supporting role.

Adams scores 0.29 goals per game from an expected 0.33, which is far in excess of Redmonds 0.1 goals from 0.15 expected. This shows that while Redmond rivals Che for assist potential, with scoring he has some ways to go. Tella is not near either on goals or assists as can be seen in the above table.

Conclusion

Ings is great and we must keep him and keep him fit, could easily tear it up at a top side. Adams is surprisingly proficient at assisting and is putting up fine numbers goalwise for a striker in midtable, to push on we need someone next to him atleast equally as good. Redmond assists well but doesn't score, Tella has a way to go.

Overall Conclusion and attempted answer to "where did it all go wrong"

One narrative persists all the way through this analysis: our second string of players are bad. We have some obvious weaknesses in our first team this season (goalkeeper, attacking mid, leftback) but the biggest thing from all this is just how far behind our back ups are. Stephens is miles behind Vestergaard in basically every regard, Bednarek is a laughable replacement for the role KWP does, Diallo is not currently doing Romeu's job as well but has definite quality, our attacking mids all have massive gaps, and Redmond has no where near the goal output to replace Ings.

I suggest from this that in the first half of the season we were a very delicate machine that worked only when every cog was in place. When the cogs broke we replaced them with elastic bands and chewing gum and by the time the key players were back, we had nothing to play for, the players did not look at all fit as if they had been rushed back, and our confidence was in a toilet.

I hope you enjoyed reading this, or skimming it as most probably will as it is a massive essay. The facts I posted here are true (to the best of my knowledge and ability), but my opinions and editorialising are not and you are welcome and encouraged to draw your own conclusions from what I have presented.

Edited 31 May, 2021 by TWar

saint lard · 30 May, 2021

Interesting read and Thankyou.
Nothing jumps out as a particular surprise but it’s intriguing to see it in statistics and percentages.
I would like to see similar equations somehow used on Ralph’s management,coaching etc in game.

thanks again.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

1 minute ago, saint lard said:

Interesting read and Thankyou.
Nothing jumps out as a particular surprise but it’s intriguing to see it in statistics and percentages.
I would like to see similar equations somehow used on Ralph’s management,coaching etc in game.

thanks again.

No worries, really glad you enjoyed it.

I tried to include a section on Ralph but every time I used a statistic to analyse him it seemed like it was difficult to control for other factors eg. I was trying to link Ralphs line up consistency to our success but it felt like I was putting the cart before the horse. To say "us picking the same team a lot makes us win" felt disingenuous as I could more easily say "when we are winning we don't change about so much" which is more intuitive. And it was hard to divide between Ralphs influence and the factors mentioned above regarding injuries so I just gave it a miss.

Isla Wight · 30 May, 2021

Very interesting read. Thank you for the huge amount work that you obviously put into this. I was particularly disappointed with the goal keeper stats 😩. Bertrands sudden downturn really showed up too.

benjii · 30 May, 2021

Cheers mush.

Yozzman · 30 May, 2021

It is surprising why we persist with KWP so high up the pitch when attacking wise there is no end product. It causes a massive problem for Bednarek when he has no fullback cover.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

1 minute ago, Yozzman said:

It is surprising why we persist with KWP so high up the pitch when attacking wise there is no end product. It causes a massive problem for Bednarek when he has no fullback cover.

It's a good point, I think KWP is very good at progressing the ball which we require with our CM's sitting so deep. He isn't much of a goal threat but he is very good at receiving long passes/beating players in order to lay the ball back to an attacking player in the final third for them to create something. Hard thing to measure statistically of course.

S-Clarke · 30 May, 2021

Good stuff mate, it's really interesting seeing it backed up like this - pretty much sums up how most of us have seen it to be honest, all comes down to 1) squad depth and 2) the quality of the squad depth.

Ralph even made similar comments last week ''To win a game, we have to be 100% in every position. We have not been able to win games when we're not quite at 100% and this isn't sustainable'' - He's right, and you fix that by baulking out the squad - not with dross, but with actual quality.

It's a shame about Ryan, but seeing it down in black and white like this does demonstrate his huge drop off in the last year. I think he'll be a steady signing for someone, but for us, when we require our full backs to be part of the attacking third so much, he's pretty much dead rubber for us nowadays.

The one thing which stood out for me was KWP and his lack of impact in the final third, it feels like in some games he spends most of his time in the opposition half - so that's probably an indication that he needs to up his delivery and pass selection massively, as he's so often in good positions.

Puddings and Monkeys · 30 May, 2021

Very rarely post, but thank you for posting this really good analysis; a very interesting read.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

10 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Good stuff mate, it's really interesting seeing it backed up like this - pretty much sums up how most of us have seen it to be honest, all comes down to 1) squad depth and 2) the quality of the squad depth.

Ralph even made similar comments last week ''To win a game, we have to be 100% in every position. We have not been able to win games when we're not quite at 100% and this isn't sustainable'' - He's right, and you fix that by baulking out the squad - not with dross, but with actual quality.

It's a shame about Ryan, but seeing it down in black and white like this does demonstrate his huge drop off in the last year. I think he'll be a steady signing for someone, but for us, when we require our full backs to be part of the attacking third so much, he's pretty much dead rubber for us nowadays.

The one thing which stood out for me was KWP and his lack of impact in the final third, it feels like in some games he spends most of his time in the opposition half - so that's probably an indication that he needs to up his delivery and pass selection massively, as he's so often in good positions.

In a way I think that most fullbacks when they get in positions like KWP does will whip a cross in, but we don't have anyone who is good in the air so normally he cuts it back to Theo/Armstrong on the outside of the box and they try to do something with it. Sometimes I think from this we should look to bring in a target man to give us another dimension and unlock KWP, as he is a very good crosser imo.

revolution saint · 30 May, 2021

Yep, good read. This is the kind of thing I expect to see from the Athletic.

Chapel End · 30 May, 2021

Interesting stuff, cheers

saint michael · 30 May, 2021

Very good read. Thanks

The Cat · 30 May, 2021

1 hour ago, TWar said:

It's a good point, I think KWP is very good at progressing the ball which we require with our CM's sitting so deep. He isn't much of a goal threat but he is very good at receiving long passes/beating players in order to lay the ball back to an attacking player in the final third for them to create something. Hard thing to measure statistically of course.

Doesn't Walker Peters have the most successful dribbles in the league or something like that? He's excellent at taking the ball from midway in our half to the opponents box but then suffers from a lack of technique when it comes to the final ball or pinging in a decent cross.

If we had someone at LB with similar attributes it would make a huge difference to the balance of the team.

Cartman · 30 May, 2021

Goal involvement isn't defined but I assume it's xG + xA? If so then that would only provide a partial picture of attacking contribution, namely the shot and the final pass, disregarding everything else that is going on and went on during the build up (Werner's role in Chelsea's goal yesterday being an obvious example). We rely of the fullbacks to provide width, without it opponents can be more narrow when defending and give us less room down the middle. I suspect KWP's attacking contribution isn't fully picked up by these stats.

Also have to disagree somewhat to your conclusion on Diallo. His tackle % of 80.6 is very good, much better than Romeu's 62%, as is his passing and it is a role where experience is particularly important. This having been his first season here (and second season of first team football overall) I think there is plenty to be optimistic about. How do his numbers compare to defensive midfielders at other clubs? And what is recoveries? Adding up tackles, interceptions and aerial duels doesn't match so must be something else.

Anyway... top work! Nominee for post of the year. Puts into numbers a lot of what we already knew to be true... our goalkeepers are awful, Stephens is awful, KWP is the only good fullback we have, attacking midfielders can collectively be described as meh and Ings is the only player than can be relied upon to stick the ball in the net.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

4 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Doesn't Walker Peters have the most successful dribbles in the league or something like that? He's excellent at taking the ball from midway in our half to the opponents box but then suffers from a lack of technique when it comes to the final ball or pinging in a decent cross.

If we had someone at LB with similar attributes it would make a huge difference to the balance of the team.

I don't personally have statistics on that but this was posted by "the other 14" twitter:

So it certainly looks like he is good at progressing and dribbling the ball.

and his success rate is apparently excellent. Bare in mind these are just for the other 14 teams and don't include the big 6 but still very impressive.

It's There · 30 May, 2021

Like others, a thank you. Clear analysis that helps everyone to see why we struggled and which areas on the pitch.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

17 minutes ago, Cartman said:

Goal involvement isn't defined but I assume it's xG + xA? If so then that would only provide a partial picture of attacking contribution, namely the shot and the final pass, disregarding everything else that is going on and went on during the build up (Werner's role in Chelsea's goal yesterday being an obvious example). We rely of the fullbacks to provide width, without it opponents can be more narrow when defending and give us less room down the middle. I suspect KWP's attacking contribution isn't fully picked up by these stats.

Also have to disagree somewhat to your conclusion on Diallo. His tackle % of 80.6 is very good, much better than Romeu's 62%, as is his passing and it is a role where experience is particularly important. This having been his first season here (and second season of first team football overall) I think there is plenty to be optimistic about. How do his numbers compare to defensive midfielders at other clubs? And what is recoveries? Adding up tackles, interceptions and aerial duels doesn't match so must be something else.

Anyway... top work! Nominee for post of the year. Puts into numbers a lot of what we already knew to be true... our goalkeepers are awful, Stephens is awful, KWP is the only good fullback we have, attacking midfielders can collectively be described as meh and Ings is the only player than can be relied upon to stick the ball in the net.

Some great points in here. Yeah goal involvement is xG + xA, and yeah I think Kyle is a tonne more valuable than that metric suggests. I do think we need more players who can make a final ball in general, and it's fine if thats not KWP but it does need to be someone, and formally it was Bertrand but now not so much.

Regarding the Diallo point, again I do agree, he is clearly very good at tackling, 80% is incredibly high. The fact he has such a high % but has significantly less tackles for me suggests he isn't in the position to make them as much as he could be, but he is very young so hopefully that awareness will come with time.

Recoveries are defined as gaining the ball when neither team has possession, so they are independent of tackles and intercepts, it is basically "winning second balls", if a player blocks a shot and you are first to latch onto a rebound, that is a recovery, similarly with a miss-control of the ball. Sometimes good recoveries can point to a good player next to you as if they put in a crunching tackle and you mop up the loose ball then they have a tackle and you have a recovery. Again I think they come with experience and game knowledge. I agree with you, I am very hopeful about Diallo, I don't think he fits Romeu's role yet but I think he will be a great option going forward with a bit more premier league experience.

Edited 30 May, 2021 by TWar

TWar · 30 May, 2021

21 minutes ago, Cartman said:

Goal involvement isn't defined but I assume it's xG + xA? If so then that would only provide a partial picture of attacking contribution, namely the shot and the final pass, disregarding everything else that is going on and went on during the build up (Werner's role in Chelsea's goal yesterday being an obvious example). We rely of the fullbacks to provide width, without it opponents can be more narrow when defending and give us less room down the middle. I suspect KWP's attacking contribution isn't fully picked up by these stats.

Also have to disagree somewhat to your conclusion on Diallo. His tackle % of 80.6 is very good, much better than Romeu's 62%, as is his passing and it is a role where experience is particularly important. This having been his first season here (and second season of first team football overall) I think there is plenty to be optimistic about. How do his numbers compare to defensive midfielders at other clubs? And what is recoveries? Adding up tackles, interceptions and aerial duels doesn't match so must be something else.

Anyway... top work! Nominee for post of the year. Puts into numbers a lot of what we already knew to be true... our goalkeepers are awful, Stephens is awful, KWP is the only good fullback we have, attacking midfielders can collectively be described as meh and Ings is the only player than can be relied upon to stick the ball in the net.

Just noticed, great spot! Diallo has the highest tackle won % of any midfielder in the league who has played over 1000 minutes. Definitely going to edit the post and add that in.

SFC Forever · 30 May, 2021

That was well worth the read. Thanks for the time and effort you put in

Vancouver Saint · 30 May, 2021

Thanks for this TWar - a ton of work resulted in a very interesting read. As you say, statistics don't always tell the full story, but some really good metrics here to back up what most of us all instinctively felt notably:

- Our goalkeepers are terrible and we badly need a top class goalkeeper if we want to compete

- Bertrand a great servant but his time is up...if we're being brutal, he should have gone earlier (a mistake to keep Bertrand and let Targett leave)

- KWP a superstar...think his attacking value is underestimated in the analysis, his finishing needs improving yes, but numbers don't take into account how high up the pitch he allows us to play, or his penalties won, or assists

- Good to see JWP get the statistical back-up. On top of everything he is a machine when it comes to consistency / lack of injury

- Vestergard good stats...still should win more in the air for his height I think but this justifies his important role, even if he does make the odd mistake on the ground

- Romeo...a big miss as we all know, but I agree with another poster above that the gap between him and Diallo is not as great as your interpretation (minor niggle)

- Adams is going to be the star player next season...there I said it

- Ings we all know is great

- Redmond needs finishing school

- Armstrong solid

- Djenepo and Minamino still question marks...both 'lightwieghts' physically...better going forward and drawing fouls than tackling...if I had to choose one it'd be Djenepo ...he tracks back hard and can work on his finishing

As always, statistics can't tell the whole picture and things like pairings and team dynamics, complementary skills etc (for example bit Romeo and JWP top stats but together lack pace in DM)

GREAT JOB! Thank you.

You'd expect Ralph and everyone has all these stats and more...but it makes you wonder sometimes.

The Cat · 30 May, 2021

Another point regards CB's as Saints have posted today that Bednarek had the most interceptions in the league.

I wonder how much this makes a difference when you analyse overall performance. His tackling % is low, however he might not have to make as many tackles because he is making an interception instead.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

14 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Another point regards CB's as Saints have posted today that Bednarek had the most interceptions in the league.

I wonder how much this makes a difference when you analyse overall performance. His tackling % is low, however he might not have to make as many tackles because he is making an interception instead.

Yep it's very impressive, he pushes up very well into midfield intercept long passes quite often and makes great clearances on the front post when put along the ground. I did my stats per 90, which he was still a very impressive in second behind Cooper and level with Fofana. Interestingly Salisu is also appears in the top 20 when adjusted by minutes.

LiberalCommunist · 30 May, 2021

Great effort Twar. Really enjoyed reading that while consistently nodding my head.

Our biggest failure is outside the starting 11. We have literally nothing of danger there. Lots of work to be done this summer.

S-Clarke · 30 May, 2021

2 hours ago, TWar said:

In a way I think that most fullbacks when they get in positions like KWP does will whip a cross in, but we don't have anyone who is good in the air so normally he cuts it back to Theo/Armstrong on the outside of the box and they try to do something with it. Sometimes I think from this we should look to bring in a target man to give us another dimension and unlock KWP, as he is a very good crosser imo.

That is very true, he does often recycle backwards when in that position. I don't see him cross enough though, I'd like to see him throw more balls into the box and then we'll see what Adams and Ings can do with it. I don't think either are bad in the air.

But having a Pelle type is certainly required in our squad in my opinion. I guess N'Lundulu fills that gap at the moment but he doesn't look anywhere near ready.

Pamplemousse · 30 May, 2021

Echo the thoughts of others, a very interesting read.

Out of interest, have you looked into as much detail into the other teams in the league? If so, where do you see us in relation to them? Obviously from a statistical point of view, the league table, as is the cliché, doesn't lie.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

9 minutes ago, Pamplemousse said:

Echo the thoughts of others, a very interesting read.

Out of interest, have you looked into as much detail into the other teams in the league? If so, where do you see us in relation to them? Obviously from a statistical point of view, the league table, as is the cliché, doesn't lie.

I have had a brief look at some other sides. Couple of things drop out. Newcastle are way overperforming and due to drop, Palace too. Brighton are way underperforming, Wolves had the most jarring drop off between seasons I've seen in a long time, Liverpool have quality underlying stats, should be right up there. To be honest, outside of saints I mostly do this for a fantasy football perspective.

I personally think our first 11 is about top 10 quality, depth-wise I think we finished about right though. Teams like West ham/Everton/Arsenal/Leicester who we should be in and around to hit europe have much more impressive depth. Depressing fact, West ham have 6 midfielders (Bowen, Lingard, Benrahma, Lanzini, Fornals, and Soucek who isn't even an attacking mid) with a better xGI per 90 than any of ours, so areas like that I don't think we are as close as we would like.

Edited 30 May, 2021 by TWar

Saint_clark · 30 May, 2021

Fascinating read. To me that reads that our priorities should be a LB (obvious I know) at a similar level to KWP and a new keeper, as well as selling Stephens and playing Salisu alongside Vestergaard with a new backup brought in to be 4th choice. Vest is pretty two footed so there shouldn't be an issue with him playing right hand side, especially if we get a full pre-season of him practising it.

The stats for attacking midfielders also would explain all the links we had to the likes of Gauld, Danjuma etc but not why we're trying to keep Minamino.

ErwinK1961 · 30 May, 2021

5 hours ago, TWar said:

Hi everyone. Last year I compiled and posted a statistical analysis of our season and a lot of you seemed to really enjoy it. I will open up this years one with a disclaimer, however. This is a post about the statistics of Southamptons season and will use statistical techniques such as expected goals/assists, if you don't see the validity in these methods this post won't be of any interest to you. I completely respect your right to the opinion that these metrics are not worth considering, but it isn't my opinion and I don't want comments beneath this to be dominated by the same two or three posters arguing about "playing football on a spreadsheet" or whatever. Especially since I have actually put quite a lot of work into this.

So without further ado:

A statistical analysis of the 20/21 Southampton season: What went right and then went horribly wrong in quick succession?

In this post I will seek to analyse our season, which players did well, which didn't, what we could require in the summer (I intend to do a later post statistically analysing summer targets/signings if people enjoy this), and possible reasons for our end-of-season collapse. Most data will be acquired from OPTA stats via a subscription to fantasyfootballscout.com, when other data is presented it will be sourced. Not everyone wants to read a boring long post, so the main interesting points will be bolded and underlined.

Squad analysis

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

Conclusion

Our goalkeepers are both dreadful, McCarthy is the worst at stopping shots in the league and Forster can't claim a ball or keep hold at all, whilst also being a well below average shot stopper. Both are worse kickers than anyone else in the league and their divergence from the mean when it comes to distribution is, frankly, staggering.

Centerbacks

This section provides more positivity than the previous, however it also offers the biggest indicator as to the reasons behind our drop in form of any. I am separately talking about centerbacks and fullbacks this season owing to having a lot to discuss for both and them having very different roles.

A lot of people noticed the first sign of our decline was the loss of Vestergaard from this side. But was he that important, and was he really performing that much better than his replacement? Yes.

A commonly implemented strategy for us this season was to funnel attacking players out wide with narrow fullbacks and deep sitting defensive midfielders and then to win the ball in the air when the crosses come in and rely on the excellent 1v1 defending of KWP and Bertrand to ensure that players couldn't run into the box from wide and play along the floor. A clever, if simple way of defending. This relies on three major facts to be true:

1) The fullbacks must be good at 1v1 defending
2) Our midfield must break up play on the edge of the box
3) The centerbacks must be able to win the ball in the air.

We shall move onto the first two points in the next sections but first lets look at our centerbacks in the air. Vestergaard won 3.26 aerial duels per 90, putting him in 11th for CBs in the league (who played over 1000 minutes). Vestergaard does not carry the full burden of aerial defending however. Bednarek wins 2.64 aerial duels per 90, still putting him very respectably in the top 25 centerbacks in the league.

Here is, however, where the problems start. Stephens is dreadful in the air. While Vestergaard and Bednarek achieved 3.26 and 2.64 aerial wins per 90, Stephens made a much less impressive 1.12. This makes puts him very low in the league for this stat. His win % is 52%, with Vestergaard and Bednarek achieving 64.5% and 64.2% respectively. As Salisu was out, losing Vestergaard completely changed how we had to defend. Stephens very poor aerial ability ment we could no longer rely on frustrating teams by forcing them to launch the ball into the box, as now that is a viable strategy. So what about Salisu, does he have what it takes to step up if/when Vestergaard leaves. Salisu wins 2.13 aerial duels per 90, not on the same level as Vestergaard or Bednarek but significantly more than Stephens.

It's not all about aerial duels though, sometimes the fullbacks or CMs won't be able to screen threats to the CBs and they will need to act on the ground. Vestergaard has a tackles won % on the ground of 74%, this is significantly higher than Bednarek or Stephens 60% and 61% respectively. This means that if Vestergaard is forced to be the last ditch option then he is a lot more reliable at it than his replacement or Bednarek, yet another reason his loss really hurt us. Salisu, as those who have watched him have noticed, is excellent at tackling on the ground. He has a tackle win % of 82%, much higher than every other player in our team, if he had played over 1000 minutes he'd be 8th best at this in the league (over 1000 minutes), as is he's played just over 850 so could still be statistically inaccurate. If he can learn to be as effective in the air as the other two, and he's not miles off, he will be a superstar.

Conclusion

We REALLY missed Vestergaard. Stephens is worse in almost every regard, especially at defending in the air which is so key to how we play. Without Vestergaard, and as said earlier, with keepers who cannot claim the ball well at all, we are not at all well served by funnelling players out wide as we did for the first half of the season. Bednarek may be poor at tackling and have a gaff in him but dropping him for Stephens would be very illadvised considering his dreadful ability at heading and not much better anything else. Salisu is a star in the making who just needs more pitch time.

Fullbacks

Our fullbacks, as stated in the previous section are essential to how we play. In this section we will discuss the decline of Ryan Bertrand and arguably our most important loss between the first and second halves of the season, Kyle Walker-Peters.

First, let's discuss Ryan Bertrand. Bertrand has been one of our most reliable and important players over the last five years of the club. He has in the past been a rock solid stalwart at the back and a genuine threat going forward, but it is obvious he is in decline. Figure 1 shows a plot of Bertrands performance since arrival, xGI numbers for 2015/16 weren't available and were hence extrapolated backwards (this is not an accurate method, do not pay too much head).

Figure 1 - Bertrands decline over time, CBI is clearances + blocks + interceptions

As you can see from this plot, Bertrand has steadily declined with regards to defensive output. He still puts up ok numbers but nowhere near the league leading quality he provided in 2015/16. Offensively we can really see what has changed with Bertrand this season specifically. He has dropped by a huge degree since last season, providing less than half the expected goal involvements of last season and well below his average since 17/18 which is the last source of accurate data. Bertrands decline in defence and attack are clear and pronounced and we are correct to move him on, with offense being the biggest decline this season specifically.

Kyle Walker-Peters is a great player, and a good shout for our most important player of the season. His tackles won % is second in the defence after Salisu at 78%, this is amongst the highest in the league for fullbacks with over 1000 minutes. Going forward, however, he is a bit of a non-entity with an expected goal involvement of 0.07, lower than Bertrand. Owing to this, with Bertrands decline our fullbacks offer very little going forward. This is an issue we will no doubt be looking to address in the summer, and a possible reason why JWP was brought into RB when we were chasing the game against West Ham in the final game of the season. So how damaging was his absence? Well, as stated above the 1v1 defending ability of our fullbacks is key to how we defend and our ability to show players outside. As stated earlier, our two replacements in that role, Bednarek and Stephens, have a tackle % of ~60% each to KWP's 78%, they were not up to the task of 1v1 defending which was required of our replacement RB.

I also tested a personal hypothesis of mine, that KWP was rushed back from injury too early and wasn't fully fit. I believe this because after coming back he looked much less effective and had a couple of other spells out the side with flare ups. Before his injury KWP had a tackle % 77% and a CBI (see fig caption for definition) of 3.34 per 90. After his injury his tackle % stayed reasonably consistent at 79% but his CBI dropped to 2.9. Not conclusive evidence but potentially indicative of a niggling injury.

Conclusions

Bertrands decline defensively has been slow and steady, his decline in attack has been swift. He needed to be replaced. KWP offers little going forward, so without Bertrand carrying that burden we don't create enough from fullback. He is however excellent defensively 1v1, something neither Bednarek or Stephens can say, therefore they were both woefully inadequate to replace him. We need quality at LB and depth in the summer. We already knew this, but the numbers support it.

Central Midfielders

JWP had an excellent season again. He lead the league for goals from set pieces and assists from set pieces, was second in the league for successful corners, and first for accuracy on target (over 10 taken). As a holding midfielder he also has done great with defensive output. He is top 14th for aerial duels won for midfielders in the premier league, 13th for tackles won, and 2nd for recoveries. I could go on about JWP but I don't think it's very productive to keep pointing out how good he is, and this review is more about where our season turned and went wrong. So we really should analyse his partners. Only two players won more tackles per 90 than Romeu this season in midfielder - Ndidi and Djenepo (surprisingly) (again only including people who have played over 1000 minutes, top in the league is Jankewitz). Romeu was also formidable for recoveries, getting 7th most recoveries in the league per 90.

So, after injury, was Diallo up to doing the job of Romeu? No. Below is a table of Diallo vs Romeu for defensive ability:

As can be seen, Romeu is well ahead on almost every metric. One which Diallo does exceed on is his tackles won % which is the best for any midfielder in the league (over 1000 minutes played), therefore if he gains the awareness of Romeu then he does have the potential to be an excellent defensive midfielder (Thanks to Cartman for pointing this out). Diallo is a better passer than Romeu with a pass % of 85% (only bettered in our team by JWP with 86%) to Romeu's 83%, and creates more chances than Romeu (0.73 vs 0.69 per 90) but he will not fill in his job when it comes to winning the ball back.

Conclusion

JWP is brilliant. Diallo can pass well and has all the tools to be an amazing player however at the moment he is not doing the job of Romeu defensively and when Romeu is out we will really miss him.

Attacking midfield

Attacking midfield was, statistically speaking, our second biggest weak spot this season. For expected goal involvement per 90, we didn't have a single player in the top 50 in the league for midfielders. Our best midfielder for creating chances was Ward-Prowse, who primarily operates as a holding midfielder, which is very poor. Below is a table of different attacking midfielders for our side and how they performed on different attacking attributes. In this CC stands for chance created and FTSP stands for final third pass completed, finishing is calculated by G - xG. This are all per 90.

One surprising stat here is the creative output of Redmond. Redmond tops our attacking players for expected assists, chances created, and final third successful passes. This could be due to his playing striker more often than some others however. Armstrong is our best finisher and our best assister on paper, and carries good goal threat. It is important to note for Armstrong that he played a significant number of games as a center mid and, therefore, his attacking stats are maybe slightly misleading. Walcott is also very creative, making good chances and getting a good number of assists. Minimino has more goal threat than our other players but is not very useful elsewhere and his assist potential is very low. Djenepo and Tella are not competing at the moment, they look good but statistically speaking and without confirmation bias it does make sense why Ralph benched Tella for Redmond consistently based on their respective outputs.

Conclusion

We need improvement in this area. No one is very good, Armstrong puts up OK numbers and finishes well which inflate them somewhat but we need to sign a good attacking mid. Minimino may be an ok option for scoring goals but that could just be sample size. Tella and Djenepo need more practice, neither is at a top level yet.

Strikers

Finally, that brings us on to strikers. Danny Ings is still very good. He put up 0.48 goals per 90 this season, joint 6th with Calvert-Lewin and Bamford for players who have played over 1000 minutes. He is the second best finisher in the league when it comes to strikers (behind Iheanacho) overperforming xG by 0.13 goals per 90. If he had stayed fit all season he would have been very close to another 20 goal season. His injury likely cost us 7.6 goals, which would have been very meaningful in making our way up the table. We should try to keep Danny at all costs, when he is fit he is CL level atleast and has been for two seasons.

Adams has had an ok season too. He has scored 9 goals, which puts him 14th in the league. His finishing has again been pretty poor, underperforming xG by 0.85. He is 13th best for xG in the league, so it does appear his finishing isn't hindering him as much as it seems however. Adams is a superb creative force, getting the 6th most expected assists per 90 of any forward in the league this stat shows he is contributing greatly in his own right and not just riding Ings' coat tails

Our other forwards, Redmond and Tella, achieved 0.1 and 0.05 xA per 90. Adams also achieved 0.1 which shows Redmond is not as far behind Adams creatively as some might think, Adams is overperfoming his expected assists by 0.06 whereas Redmond is overperforming by 0.05 giving Adams a slightly better actual assist total. Ings also puts up 0.05 expected assists per 90, adding further credence to the idea he is the main man scoringwise and Adams/Redmond are very much in a supporting role.

Adams scores 0.29 goals per game from an expected 0.33, which is far in excess of Redmonds 0.1 goals from 0.15 expected. This shows that while Redmond rivals Che for assist potential, with scoring he has some ways to go. Tella is not near either on goals or assists as can be seen in the above table.

Conclusion

Ings is great and we must keep him and keep him fit, could easily tear it up at a top side. Adams is surprisingly proficient at assisting and is putting up fine numbers goalwise for a striker in midtable, to push on we need someone next to him atleast equally as good. Redmond assists well but doesn't score, Tella has a way to go.

Overall Conclusion and attempted answer to "where did it all go wrong"

One narrative persists all the way through this analysis: our second string of players are bad. We have some obvious weaknesses in our first team this season (goalkeeper, attacking mid, leftback) but the biggest thing from all this is just how far behind our back ups are. Stephens is miles behind Vestergaard in basically every regard, Bednarek is a laughable replacement for the role KWP does, Diallo is not currently doing Romeu's job as well but has definite quality, our attacking mids all have massive gaps, and Redmond has no where near the goal output to replace Ings.

I suggest from this that in the first half of the season we were a very delicate machine that worked only when every cog was in place. When the cogs broke we replaced them with elastic bands and chewing gum and by the time the key players were back, we had nothing to play for, the players did not look at all fit as if they had been rushed back, and our confidence was in a toilet.

I hope you enjoyed reading this, or skimming it as most probably will as it is a massive essay. The facts I posted here are true (to the best of my knowledge and ability), but my opinions and editorialising are not and you are welcome and encouraged to draw your own conclusions from what I have presented.

Great post TWar, thank you for the work!

USaint · 30 May, 2021

Excellent post. Thank you TWar

Whitey Grandad · 30 May, 2021

Impressive work. Regarding the goalkeepers though it’s not enough just to distinguish between catching and parrying. Forster might well push a shot away but what is important is where that parry ends up. Pushing a shot around the post is not the worst thing in the world when compared to McCarthy batting it straight back to the opposition player with an invitation to have another go.

OttawaSaint · 30 May, 2021

7 hours ago, TWar said:

Hi everyone. Last year I compiled and posted a statistical analysis of our season and a lot of you seemed to really enjoy it. I will open up this years one with a disclaimer, however. This is a post about the statistics of Southamptons season and will use statistical techniques such as expected goals/assists, if you don't see the validity in these methods this post won't be of any interest to you. I completely respect your right to the opinion that these metrics are not worth considering, but it isn't my opinion and I don't want comments beneath this to be dominated by the same two or three posters arguing about "playing football on a spreadsheet" or whatever. Especially since I have actually put quite a lot of work into this.

So without further ado:

A statistical analysis of the 20/21 Southampton season: What went right and then went horribly wrong in quick succession?

In this post I will seek to analyse our season, which players did well, which didn't, what we could require in the summer (I intend to do a later post statistically analysing summer targets/signings if people enjoy this), and possible reasons for our end-of-season collapse. Most data will be acquired from OPTA stats via a subscription to fantasyfootballscout.com, when other data is presented it will be sourced. Not everyone wants to read a boring long post, so the main interesting points will be bolded and underlined.

Squad analysis

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

Conclusion

Our goalkeepers are both dreadful, McCarthy is the worst at stopping shots in the league and Forster can't claim a ball or keep hold at all, whilst also being a well below average shot stopper. Both are worse kickers than anyone else in the league and their divergence from the mean when it comes to distribution is, frankly, staggering.

Centerbacks

This section provides more positivity than the previous, however it also offers the biggest indicator as to the reasons behind our drop in form of any. I am separately talking about centerbacks and fullbacks this season owing to having a lot to discuss for both and them having very different roles.

A lot of people noticed the first sign of our decline was the loss of Vestergaard from this side. But was he that important, and was he really performing that much better than his replacement? Yes.

A commonly implemented strategy for us this season was to funnel attacking players out wide with narrow fullbacks and deep sitting defensive midfielders and then to win the ball in the air when the crosses come in and rely on the excellent 1v1 defending of KWP and Bertrand to ensure that players couldn't run into the box from wide and play along the floor. A clever, if simple way of defending. This relies on three major facts to be true:

1) The fullbacks must be good at 1v1 defending
2) Our midfield must break up play on the edge of the box
3) The centerbacks must be able to win the ball in the air.

We shall move onto the first two points in the next sections but first lets look at our centerbacks in the air. Vestergaard won 3.26 aerial duels per 90, putting him in 11th for CBs in the league (who played over 1000 minutes). Vestergaard does not carry the full burden of aerial defending however. Bednarek wins 2.64 aerial duels per 90, still putting him very respectably in the top 25 centerbacks in the league.

Here is, however, where the problems start. Stephens is dreadful in the air. While Vestergaard and Bednarek achieved 3.26 and 2.64 aerial wins per 90, Stephens made a much less impressive 1.12. This makes puts him very low in the league for this stat. His win % is 52%, with Vestergaard and Bednarek achieving 64.5% and 64.2% respectively. As Salisu was out, losing Vestergaard completely changed how we had to defend. Stephens very poor aerial ability ment we could no longer rely on frustrating teams by forcing them to launch the ball into the box, as now that is a viable strategy. So what about Salisu, does he have what it takes to step up if/when Vestergaard leaves. Salisu wins 2.13 aerial duels per 90, not on the same level as Vestergaard or Bednarek but significantly more than Stephens.

It's not all about aerial duels though, sometimes the fullbacks or CMs won't be able to screen threats to the CBs and they will need to act on the ground. Vestergaard has a tackles won % on the ground of 74%, this is significantly higher than Bednarek or Stephens 60% and 61% respectively. This means that if Vestergaard is forced to be the last ditch option then he is a lot more reliable at it than his replacement or Bednarek, yet another reason his loss really hurt us. Salisu, as those who have watched him have noticed, is excellent at tackling on the ground. He has a tackle win % of 82%, much higher than every other player in our team, if he had played over 1000 minutes he'd be 8th best at this in the league (over 1000 minutes), as is he's played just over 850 so could still be statistically inaccurate. If he can learn to be as effective in the air as the other two, and he's not miles off, he will be a superstar.

Conclusion

We REALLY missed Vestergaard. Stephens is worse in almost every regard, especially at defending in the air which is so key to how we play. Without Vestergaard, and as said earlier, with keepers who cannot claim the ball well at all, we are not at all well served by funnelling players out wide as we did for the first half of the season. Bednarek may be poor at tackling and have a gaff in him but dropping him for Stephens would be very illadvised considering his dreadful ability at heading and not much better anything else. Salisu is a star in the making who just needs more pitch time.

Fullbacks

Our fullbacks, as stated in the previous section are essential to how we play. In this section we will discuss the decline of Ryan Bertrand and arguably our most important loss between the first and second halves of the season, Kyle Walker-Peters.

First, let's discuss Ryan Bertrand. Bertrand has been one of our most reliable and important players over the last five years of the club. He has in the past been a rock solid stalwart at the back and a genuine threat going forward, but it is obvious he is in decline. Figure 1 shows a plot of Bertrands performance since arrival, xGI numbers for 2015/16 weren't available and were hence extrapolated backwards (this is not an accurate method, do not pay too much head).

Figure 1 - Bertrands decline over time, CBI is clearances + blocks + interceptions

As you can see from this plot, Bertrand has steadily declined with regards to defensive output. He still puts up ok numbers but nowhere near the league leading quality he provided in 2015/16. Offensively we can really see what has changed with Bertrand this season specifically. He has dropped by a huge degree since last season, providing less than half the expected goal involvements of last season and well below his average since 17/18 which is the last source of accurate data. Bertrands decline in defence and attack are clear and pronounced and we are correct to move him on, with offense being the biggest decline this season specifically.

Kyle Walker-Peters is a great player, and a good shout for our most important player of the season. His tackles won % is second in the defence after Salisu at 78%, this is amongst the highest in the league for fullbacks with over 1000 minutes. Going forward, however, he is a bit of a non-entity with an expected goal involvement of 0.07, lower than Bertrand. Owing to this, with Bertrands decline our fullbacks offer very little going forward. This is an issue we will no doubt be looking to address in the summer, and a possible reason why JWP was brought into RB when we were chasing the game against West Ham in the final game of the season. So how damaging was his absence? Well, as stated above the 1v1 defending ability of our fullbacks is key to how we defend and our ability to show players outside. As stated earlier, our two replacements in that role, Bednarek and Stephens, have a tackle % of ~60% each to KWP's 78%, they were not up to the task of 1v1 defending which was required of our replacement RB.

I also tested a personal hypothesis of mine, that KWP was rushed back from injury too early and wasn't fully fit. I believe this because after coming back he looked much less effective and had a couple of other spells out the side with flare ups. Before his injury KWP had a tackle % 77% and a CBI (see fig caption for definition) of 3.34 per 90. After his injury his tackle % stayed reasonably consistent at 79% but his CBI dropped to 2.9. Not conclusive evidence but potentially indicative of a niggling injury.

Conclusions

Bertrands decline defensively has been slow and steady, his decline in attack has been swift. He needed to be replaced. KWP offers little going forward, so without Bertrand carrying that burden we don't create enough from fullback. He is however excellent defensively 1v1, something neither Bednarek or Stephens can say, therefore they were both woefully inadequate to replace him. We need quality at LB and depth in the summer. We already knew this, but the numbers support it.

Central Midfielders

JWP had an excellent season again. He lead the league for goals from set pieces and assists from set pieces, was second in the league for successful corners, and first for accuracy on target (over 10 taken). As a holding midfielder he also has done great with defensive output. He is top 14th for aerial duels won for midfielders in the premier league, 13th for tackles won, and 2nd for recoveries. I could go on about JWP but I don't think it's very productive to keep pointing out how good he is, and this review is more about where our season turned and went wrong. So we really should analyse his partners. Only two players won more tackles per 90 than Romeu this season in midfielder - Ndidi and Djenepo (surprisingly) (again only including people who have played over 1000 minutes, top in the league is Jankewitz). Romeu was also formidable for recoveries, getting 7th most recoveries in the league per 90.

So, after injury, was Diallo up to doing the job of Romeu? No. Below is a table of Diallo vs Romeu for defensive ability:

As can be seen, Romeu is well ahead on almost every metric. One which Diallo does exceed on is his tackles won % which is the best for any midfielder in the league (over 1000 minutes played), therefore if he gains the awareness of Romeu then he does have the potential to be an excellent defensive midfielder (Thanks to Cartman for pointing this out). Diallo is a better passer than Romeu with a pass % of 85% (only bettered in our team by JWP with 86%) to Romeu's 83%, and creates more chances than Romeu (0.73 vs 0.69 per 90) but he will not fill in his job when it comes to winning the ball back.

Conclusion

JWP is brilliant. Diallo can pass well and has all the tools to be an amazing player however at the moment he is not doing the job of Romeu defensively and when Romeu is out we will really miss him.

Attacking midfield

Attacking midfield was, statistically speaking, our second biggest weak spot this season. For expected goal involvement per 90, we didn't have a single player in the top 50 in the league for midfielders. Our best midfielder for creating chances was Ward-Prowse, who primarily operates as a holding midfielder, which is very poor. Below is a table of different attacking midfielders for our side and how they performed on different attacking attributes. In this CC stands for chance created and FTSP stands for final third pass completed, finishing is calculated by G - xG. This are all per 90.

One surprising stat here is the creative output of Redmond. Redmond tops our attacking players for expected assists, chances created, and final third successful passes. This could be due to his playing striker more often than some others however. Armstrong is our best finisher and our best assister on paper, and carries good goal threat. It is important to note for Armstrong that he played a significant number of games as a center mid and, therefore, his attacking stats are maybe slightly misleading. Walcott is also very creative, making good chances and getting a good number of assists. Minimino has more goal threat than our other players but is not very useful elsewhere and his assist potential is very low. Djenepo and Tella are not competing at the moment, they look good but statistically speaking and without confirmation bias it does make sense why Ralph benched Tella for Redmond consistently based on their respective outputs.

Conclusion

We need improvement in this area. No one is very good, Armstrong puts up OK numbers and finishes well which inflate them somewhat but we need to sign a good attacking mid. Minimino may be an ok option for scoring goals but that could just be sample size. Tella and Djenepo need more practice, neither is at a top level yet.

Strikers

Finally, that brings us on to strikers. Danny Ings is still very good. He put up 0.48 goals per 90 this season, joint 6th with Calvert-Lewin and Bamford for players who have played over 1000 minutes. He is the second best finisher in the league when it comes to strikers (behind Iheanacho) overperforming xG by 0.13 goals per 90. If he had stayed fit all season he would have been very close to another 20 goal season. His injury likely cost us 7.6 goals, which would have been very meaningful in making our way up the table. We should try to keep Danny at all costs, when he is fit he is CL level atleast and has been for two seasons.

Adams has had an ok season too. He has scored 9 goals, which puts him 14th in the league. His finishing has again been pretty poor, underperforming xG by 0.85. He is 13th best for xG in the league, so it does appear his finishing isn't hindering him as much as it seems however. Adams is a superb creative force, getting the 6th most expected assists per 90 of any forward in the league this stat shows he is contributing greatly in his own right and not just riding Ings' coat tails

Our other forwards, Redmond and Tella, achieved 0.1 and 0.05 xA per 90. Adams also achieved 0.1 which shows Redmond is not as far behind Adams creatively as some might think, Adams is overperfoming his expected assists by 0.06 whereas Redmond is overperforming by 0.05 giving Adams a slightly better actual assist total. Ings also puts up 0.05 expected assists per 90, adding further credence to the idea he is the main man scoringwise and Adams/Redmond are very much in a supporting role.

Adams scores 0.29 goals per game from an expected 0.33, which is far in excess of Redmonds 0.1 goals from 0.15 expected. This shows that while Redmond rivals Che for assist potential, with scoring he has some ways to go. Tella is not near either on goals or assists as can be seen in the above table.

Conclusion

Ings is great and we must keep him and keep him fit, could easily tear it up at a top side. Adams is surprisingly proficient at assisting and is putting up fine numbers goalwise for a striker in midtable, to push on we need someone next to him atleast equally as good. Redmond assists well but doesn't score, Tella has a way to go.

Overall Conclusion and attempted answer to "where did it all go wrong"

One narrative persists all the way through this analysis: our second string of players are bad. We have some obvious weaknesses in our first team this season (goalkeeper, attacking mid, leftback) but the biggest thing from all this is just how far behind our back ups are. Stephens is miles behind Vestergaard in basically every regard, Bednarek is a laughable replacement for the role KWP does, Diallo is not currently doing Romeu's job as well but has definite quality, our attacking mids all have massive gaps, and Redmond has no where near the goal output to replace Ings.

I suggest from this that in the first half of the season we were a very delicate machine that worked only when every cog was in place. When the cogs broke we replaced them with elastic bands and chewing gum and by the time the key players were back, we had nothing to play for, the players did not look at all fit as if they had been rushed back, and our confidence was in a toilet.

I hope you enjoyed reading this, or skimming it as most probably will as it is a massive essay. The facts I posted here are true (to the best of my knowledge and ability), but my opinions and editorialising are not and you are welcome and encouraged to draw your own conclusions from what I have presented.

Can you send this to the club? I’m sure they’ve have their own analysis but they don’t seem to follow it with the team selections, tactics and formations we’ve seen.

Dusic · 30 May, 2021

Excellent post.

Such a shame that neither FF or AMc are out of contract this summer as we are in dire need of a new #1 that can do more of the things needed in the PL these days.

Re KWP, I feel from watching him that the stats don't do him justice. He feels like an attacking threat most games, he just doesnt seem to get the assists numbers because of either final ball or poor finishing.

Compared to for example Cedric over a number of years, KWP gets in better attacking positions (especially from the deep runs) and I think just needs a bit more confidence in the final action.

TWar · 30 May, 2021

8 minutes ago, Dusic said:

Excellent post.

Such a shame that neither FF or AMc are out of contract this summer as we are in dire need of a new #1 that can do more of the things needed in the PL these days.

Re KWP, I feel from watching him that the stats don't do him justice. He feels like an attacking threat most games, he just doesnt seem to get the assists numbers because of either final ball or poor finishing.

Compared to for example Cedric over a number of years, KWP gets in better attacking positions (especially from the deep runs) and I think just needs a bit more confidence in the final action.

I think we could see Forster head out, maybe back to Celtic. I think he'd be fine in a weaker league, has already shown he can do it there once pretty emphatically. He is the better of the two imo so probably the one we can shift. McCarthy will do as a second choice, just hope we buy well this time and don't get another Gunn.

Nemi · 30 May, 2021

A lot of interesting stuff here, thanks, though it does also remind me why stats only tell a small portion of the tale.

Ward-Prowse is the prime example for me. A very good player when we’re on the front foot, pressing high and getting turnovers high up the pitch and those stats reflect that. My issue is that when the press starts to fade he doesn’t get into the right positions to pick up the ball between the lines and too often play goes backwards or sideways when he is on the ball - his role in our transition from defence to attack when we have lots of possession is too slow and predictable. Unfortunately the stats don’t pick up on that. I’d say the only reflection of this is that much of our opportunities come early in the game when our press is high compared to later on in games when we tend to struggle. For me it shows why he is an important player for us when things are going right, but I think he is part of the problem when they aren’t.

I think the reason Ward-Prowse works better with Romeu is that he can press a bit further forward, while Romeu can clear up behind and in my eyes he’s the strongest midfielder at positioning himself to transition the ball from defence to attack which negates Ward-Prowses deficiencies here (maybe that’s why his passing accuracy is a bit lower because he is taking on riskier passes compared to JWP and Diallo).

I would say the same applies to the centre-backs. Positioning in my view is the most important attribute, and and I think Vestergaard and Bednarek are pretty atrocious at it: which again obviously doesn’t get recorded in the stats book.

What those stats really show is or lack of creatively in all areas. Would be interesting if it was possible to see what sort of positions/what sort of goals we scored from (e.g. set pieces or headers from crosses) as I think it would show the goals we scored are very similar to one another.

Edited 30 May, 2021 by Nemi

woodsaint1 · 30 May, 2021

7 hours ago, TWar said:

Hi everyone. Last year I compiled and posted a statistical analysis of our season and a lot of you seemed to really enjoy it. I will open up this years one with a disclaimer, however. This is a post about the statistics of Southamptons season and will use statistical techniques such as expected goals/assists, if you don't see the validity in these methods this post won't be of any interest to you. I completely respect your right to the opinion that these metrics are not worth considering, but it isn't my opinion and I don't want comments beneath this to be dominated by the same two or three posters arguing about "playing football on a spreadsheet" or whatever. Especially since I have actually put quite a lot of work into this.

So without further ado:

A statistical analysis of the 20/21 Southampton season: What went right and then went horribly wrong in quick succession?

In this post I will seek to analyse our season, which players did well, which didn't, what we could require in the summer (I intend to do a later post statistically analysing summer targets/signings if people enjoy this), and possible reasons for our end-of-season collapse. Most data will be acquired from OPTA stats via a subscription to fantasyfootballscout.com, when other data is presented it will be sourced. Not everyone wants to read a boring long post, so the main interesting points will be bolded and underlined.

Squad analysis

Goalkeepers

I considered the idea of putting strikers first and goalkeepers last in an attempt to open with positives but lets not beat around the bush. Both our starting goalkeepers have been, statistically, woeful.

The most important job of a goalkeeper is to make saves. McCarthy has the joint lowest goals prevented per 90 in the league (-0.32), joint with Guiata of Crystal palace, of any keeper in the league that has played over 500 minutes. Ryan is lower in total as well and has technically played over 500 minutes but across two clubs which makes the number hard to judge. From this, we see that his shot stopping is dreadful. Forster is better with a goals prevented per 90 of (-0.14) which still puts him in the bottom 25% but is at least not an outlier in how poor he has been.

So the obvious answer is to play Forster? Lets look into that. Forster is betrayed by the type of save he makes. Forster has made 20 saves this season with a pretty dreadful save % of 64.5% (McCarthy is 63.4%). Of those saves however, not a single one was a catch, with 14 parries and 6 punches. For most goalkeepers catches make up about 25% of their saves, Forster has 0%. He constantly puts us in danger with his poor handling skills, pushing the ball out for set-pieces or dangerously back into play. Forsters recoveries per 90 is 7.05, is only better than Ederson, Mendy, Schmeichel, Patricio, and both manchester united goalkeepers. That may seem like prestigious company, however these goalkeepers have low recoveries due to their teams high possession and low amount of time with the ball in their half (with the exception of Patricio who also is very poor in this area). Other goal keepers who face a similar number of balls into the box as Forster are significantly ahead. McCarthy, for example, makes 7.48 recoveries per 90 which is still poor compared to most goalkeepers adjusting for possession, but better than Forster. From this we can see Forsters ability to claim the ball really lets him down, and justifies McCarthy having to play against cross-heavy teams.

Finally we look to distribution. Our side relies quite heavily on Vestergaard to make long balls from the back. In fact in the closing games of the season McCarthy was taking goal kicks to Vestergaard who was stood a couple of feet away from him, who then took the goal kick for him. This is not normal, often a short goal kick is taken but normally the goalkeeper is sufficiently trusted to pick a pass incase the CBs are marked, we do not trust McCarthy to do this, and hence he no longer takes his own goal kicks. For this we turn to FBRef for info as FFS didn't have details. This resource only looks at primary goalkeepers for a team so we only have stats on McCarthy, however his launched ball (over 40 yards) completion % is a shameful 29.5%, rock bottom of the league and a full 16% lower than the median result. Whilst this website doesn't provide details on Forster, it does display Southampton's over all launch completion % which is 29.2%, this is EVEN WORSE, showing Forster is even worse at longer passing than McCarthy. We are still rock bottom of the league by this metric. Our need for a passer, like Vestergaard, is artificially larger than it should be as both our goalkeepers are embarrassingly bad at passing compared to the rest of the league.

Conclusion

Our goalkeepers are both dreadful, McCarthy is the worst at stopping shots in the league and Forster can't claim a ball or keep hold at all, whilst also being a well below average shot stopper. Both are worse kickers than anyone else in the league and their divergence from the mean when it comes to distribution is, frankly, staggering.

Centerbacks

This section provides more positivity than the previous, however it also offers the biggest indicator as to the reasons behind our drop in form of any. I am separately talking about centerbacks and fullbacks this season owing to having a lot to discuss for both and them having very different roles.

A lot of people noticed the first sign of our decline was the loss of Vestergaard from this side. But was he that important, and was he really performing that much better than his replacement? Yes.

A commonly implemented strategy for us this season was to funnel attacking players out wide with narrow fullbacks and deep sitting defensive midfielders and then to win the ball in the air when the crosses come in and rely on the excellent 1v1 defending of KWP and Bertrand to ensure that players couldn't run into the box from wide and play along the floor. A clever, if simple way of defending. This relies on three major facts to be true:

1) The fullbacks must be good at 1v1 defending
2) Our midfield must break up play on the edge of the box
3) The centerbacks must be able to win the ball in the air.

We shall move onto the first two points in the next sections but first lets look at our centerbacks in the air. Vestergaard won 3.26 aerial duels per 90, putting him in 11th for CBs in the league (who played over 1000 minutes). Vestergaard does not carry the full burden of aerial defending however. Bednarek wins 2.64 aerial duels per 90, still putting him very respectably in the top 25 centerbacks in the league.

Here is, however, where the problems start. Stephens is dreadful in the air. While Vestergaard and Bednarek achieved 3.26 and 2.64 aerial wins per 90, Stephens made a much less impressive 1.12. This makes puts him very low in the league for this stat. His win % is 52%, with Vestergaard and Bednarek achieving 64.5% and 64.2% respectively. As Salisu was out, losing Vestergaard completely changed how we had to defend. Stephens very poor aerial ability ment we could no longer rely on frustrating teams by forcing them to launch the ball into the box, as now that is a viable strategy. So what about Salisu, does he have what it takes to step up if/when Vestergaard leaves. Salisu wins 2.13 aerial duels per 90, not on the same level as Vestergaard or Bednarek but significantly more than Stephens.

It's not all about aerial duels though, sometimes the fullbacks or CMs won't be able to screen threats to the CBs and they will need to act on the ground. Vestergaard has a tackles won % on the ground of 74%, this is significantly higher than Bednarek or Stephens 60% and 61% respectively. This means that if Vestergaard is forced to be the last ditch option then he is a lot more reliable at it than his replacement or Bednarek, yet another reason his loss really hurt us. Salisu, as those who have watched him have noticed, is excellent at tackling on the ground. He has a tackle win % of 82%, much higher than every other player in our team, if he had played over 1000 minutes he'd be 8th best at this in the league (over 1000 minutes), as is he's played just over 850 so could still be statistically inaccurate. If he can learn to be as effective in the air as the other two, and he's not miles off, he will be a superstar.

Conclusion

We REALLY missed Vestergaard. Stephens is worse in almost every regard, especially at defending in the air which is so key to how we play. Without Vestergaard, and as said earlier, with keepers who cannot claim the ball well at all, we are not at all well served by funnelling players out wide as we did for the first half of the season. Bednarek may be poor at tackling and have a gaff in him but dropping him for Stephens would be very illadvised considering his dreadful ability at heading and not much better anything else. Salisu is a star in the making who just needs more pitch time.

Fullbacks

Our fullbacks, as stated in the previous section are essential to how we play. In this section we will discuss the decline of Ryan Bertrand and arguably our most important loss between the first and second halves of the season, Kyle Walker-Peters.

First, let's discuss Ryan Bertrand. Bertrand has been one of our most reliable and important players over the last five years of the club. He has in the past been a rock solid stalwart at the back and a genuine threat going forward, but it is obvious he is in decline. Figure 1 shows a plot of Bertrands performance since arrival, xGI numbers for 2015/16 weren't available and were hence extrapolated backwards (this is not an accurate method, do not pay too much head).

Figure 1 - Bertrands decline over time, CBI is clearances + blocks + interceptions

As you can see from this plot, Bertrand has steadily declined with regards to defensive output. He still puts up ok numbers but nowhere near the league leading quality he provided in 2015/16. Offensively we can really see what has changed with Bertrand this season specifically. He has dropped by a huge degree since last season, providing less than half the expected goal involvements of last season and well below his average since 17/18 which is the last source of accurate data. Bertrands decline in defence and attack are clear and pronounced and we are correct to move him on, with offense being the biggest decline this season specifically.

Kyle Walker-Peters is a great player, and a good shout for our most important player of the season. His tackles won % is second in the defence after Salisu at 78%, this is amongst the highest in the league for fullbacks with over 1000 minutes. Going forward, however, he is a bit of a non-entity with an expected goal involvement of 0.07, lower than Bertrand. Owing to this, with Bertrands decline our fullbacks offer very little going forward. This is an issue we will no doubt be looking to address in the summer, and a possible reason why JWP was brought into RB when we were chasing the game against West Ham in the final game of the season. So how damaging was his absence? Well, as stated above the 1v1 defending ability of our fullbacks is key to how we defend and our ability to show players outside. As stated earlier, our two replacements in that role, Bednarek and Stephens, have a tackle % of ~60% each to KWP's 78%, they were not up to the task of 1v1 defending which was required of our replacement RB.

I also tested a personal hypothesis of mine, that KWP was rushed back from injury too early and wasn't fully fit. I believe this because after coming back he looked much less effective and had a couple of other spells out the side with flare ups. Before his injury KWP had a tackle % 77% and a CBI (see fig caption for definition) of 3.34 per 90. After his injury his tackle % stayed reasonably consistent at 79% but his CBI dropped to 2.9. Not conclusive evidence but potentially indicative of a niggling injury.

Conclusions

Bertrands decline defensively has been slow and steady, his decline in attack has been swift. He needed to be replaced. KWP offers little going forward, so without Bertrand carrying that burden we don't create enough from fullback. He is however excellent defensively 1v1, something neither Bednarek or Stephens can say, therefore they were both woefully inadequate to replace him. We need quality at LB and depth in the summer. We already knew this, but the numbers support it.

Central Midfielders

JWP had an excellent season again. He lead the league for goals from set pieces and assists from set pieces, was second in the league for successful corners, and first for accuracy on target (over 10 taken). As a holding midfielder he also has done great with defensive output. He is top 14th for aerial duels won for midfielders in the premier league, 13th for tackles won, and 2nd for recoveries. I could go on about JWP but I don't think it's very productive to keep pointing out how good he is, and this review is more about where our season turned and went wrong. So we really should analyse his partners. Only two players won more tackles per 90 than Romeu this season in midfielder - Ndidi and Djenepo (surprisingly) (again only including people who have played over 1000 minutes, top in the league is Jankewitz). Romeu was also formidable for recoveries, getting 7th most recoveries in the league per 90.

So, after injury, was Diallo up to doing the job of Romeu? No. Below is a table of Diallo vs Romeu for defensive ability:

As can be seen, Romeu is well ahead on almost every metric. One which Diallo does exceed on is his tackles won % which is the best for any midfielder in the league (over 1000 minutes played), therefore if he gains the awareness of Romeu then he does have the potential to be an excellent defensive midfielder (Thanks to Cartman for pointing this out). Diallo is a better passer than Romeu with a pass % of 85% (only bettered in our team by JWP with 86%) to Romeu's 83%, and creates more chances than Romeu (0.73 vs 0.69 per 90) but he will not fill in his job when it comes to winning the ball back.

Conclusion

JWP is brilliant. Diallo can pass well and has all the tools to be an amazing player however at the moment he is not doing the job of Romeu defensively and when Romeu is out we will really miss him.

Attacking midfield

Attacking midfield was, statistically speaking, our second biggest weak spot this season. For expected goal involvement per 90, we didn't have a single player in the top 50 in the league for midfielders. Our best midfielder for creating chances was Ward-Prowse, who primarily operates as a holding midfielder, which is very poor. Below is a table of different attacking midfielders for our side and how they performed on different attacking attributes. In this CC stands for chance created and FTSP stands for final third pass completed, finishing is calculated by G - xG. This are all per 90.

One surprising stat here is the creative output of Redmond. Redmond tops our attacking players for expected assists, chances created, and final third successful passes. This could be due to his playing striker more often than some others however. Armstrong is our best finisher and our best assister on paper, and carries good goal threat. It is important to note for Armstrong that he played a significant number of games as a center mid and, therefore, his attacking stats are maybe slightly misleading. Walcott is also very creative, making good chances and getting a good number of assists. Minimino has more goal threat than our other players but is not very useful elsewhere and his assist potential is very low. Djenepo and Tella are not competing at the moment, they look good but statistically speaking and without confirmation bias it does make sense why Ralph benched Tella for Redmond consistently based on their respective outputs.

Conclusion

We need improvement in this area. No one is very good, Armstrong puts up OK numbers and finishes well which inflate them somewhat but we need to sign a good attacking mid. Minimino may be an ok option for scoring goals but that could just be sample size. Tella and Djenepo need more practice, neither is at a top level yet.

Strikers

Finally, that brings us on to strikers. Danny Ings is still very good. He put up 0.48 goals per 90 this season, joint 6th with Calvert-Lewin and Bamford for players who have played over 1000 minutes. He is the second best finisher in the league when it comes to strikers (behind Iheanacho) overperforming xG by 0.13 goals per 90. If he had stayed fit all season he would have been very close to another 20 goal season. His injury likely cost us 7.6 goals, which would have been very meaningful in making our way up the table. We should try to keep Danny at all costs, when he is fit he is CL level atleast and has been for two seasons.

Adams has had an ok season too. He has scored 9 goals, which puts him 14th in the league. His finishing has again been pretty poor, underperforming xG by 0.85. He is 13th best for xG in the league, so it does appear his finishing isn't hindering him as much as it seems however. Adams is a superb creative force, getting the 6th most expected assists per 90 of any forward in the league this stat shows he is contributing greatly in his own right and not just riding Ings' coat tails

Our other forwards, Redmond and Tella, achieved 0.1 and 0.05 xA per 90. Adams also achieved 0.1 which shows Redmond is not as far behind Adams creatively as some might think, Adams is overperfoming his expected assists by 0.06 whereas Redmond is overperforming by 0.05 giving Adams a slightly better actual assist total. Ings also puts up 0.05 expected assists per 90, adding further credence to the idea he is the main man scoringwise and Adams/Redmond are very much in a supporting role.

Adams scores 0.29 goals per game from an expected 0.33, which is far in excess of Redmonds 0.1 goals from 0.15 expected. This shows that while Redmond rivals Che for assist potential, with scoring he has some ways to go. Tella is not near either on goals or assists as can be seen in the above table.

Conclusion

Ings is great and we must keep him and keep him fit, could easily tear it up at a top side. Adams is surprisingly proficient at assisting and is putting up fine numbers goalwise for a striker in midtable, to push on we need someone next to him atleast equally as good. Redmond assists well but doesn't score, Tella has a way to go.

Overall Conclusion and attempted answer to "where did it all go wrong"

One narrative persists all the way through this analysis: our second string of players are bad. We have some obvious weaknesses in our first team this season (goalkeeper, attacking mid, leftback) but the biggest thing from all this is just how far behind our back ups are. Stephens is miles behind Vestergaard in basically every regard, Bednarek is a laughable replacement for the role KWP does, Diallo is not currently doing Romeu's job as well but has definite quality, our attacking mids all have massive gaps, and Redmond has no where near the goal output to replace Ings.

I suggest from this that in the first half of the season we were a very delicate machine that worked only when every cog was in place. When the cogs broke we replaced them with elastic bands and chewing gum and by the time the key players were back, we had nothing to play for, the players did not look at all fit as if they had been rushed back, and our confidence was in a toilet.

I hope you enjoyed reading this, or skimming it as most probably will as it is a massive essay. The facts I posted here are true (to the best of my knowledge and ability), but my opinions and editorialising are not and you are welcome and encouraged to draw your own conclusions from what I have presented.

Many thanks for this, some excellent research.

There is really no hiding place for many of our players when you see the raw statistics. Hopefully Ralph has this all laid out in front of him. Some shocking numbers in there particularly at GK and CB. No wonder we conceded so many. Redmond flatters to deceive as we all expected and Adams demonstrating how much value he adds to the team.

Impressed with Diallo's numbers. You could see his quality at times, particularly in the Liverpool game where he barely gave Thiago a kick. There was alot of pressure placed on him filling in for Romeu (arguably our second most important player after Ings), but he performed admirably imo. Interesting to see how he kicks on next season with the experience hes gained and a full pre season training with the team.

I see Jankewitz gets a mention despite only playing about 6 PL minutes in total lol

TWar · 30 May, 2021

5 minutes ago, woodsaint1 said:

I see Jankewitz gets a mention despite only playing about 6 PL minutes in total lol

So Jankewitz tops a tonne of premier league stats per 90. He made one good tackle, intercepted a pass, and made one good pass and then got sent off. So he tops tackles per 90, interceptions per 90, CBI per 90, and progressive passes per 90 for the whole league IIRC. I thought I'd mention it there as it shows why I use "minimum 1000 minutes" for my per 90 stats, there are always outliers if you allow sample size to drift a little small.

Edited 30 May, 2021 by TWar

skintsaint · 31 May, 2021

Good in-depth post this forum rarely produces, normally it is MLG etc bickering.

Can you send this to the top bods at Saints including Ralph!! No surprise our defensive numbers are poor in areas especially in the GK area. I agree with others if we can get someone of similar ilk to Walker-Peters on the left it will help us immensely. A fit Danny & Che combo for the season should be enough firepower for us also.

Convict Colony · 31 May, 2021

Really enjoyed that thanks amigo.

Happy that both Salisu and Diallo have potential and more minutes should hopefully increase their learning scope.

Norm · 31 May, 2021

TWar 👏

Convict Colony · 31 May, 2021

12 hours ago, revolution saint said:

Yep, good read. This is the kind of thing I expect to see from the Athletic.

it will probably be copied and pasted in a couple of weeks

SuperSAINT · 31 May, 2021

A very good read. Thanks for taking the time on it.

Nordic Saint · 31 May, 2021

"One surprising stat here is the creative output of Redmond. Redmond tops our attacking players for expected assists, chances created, and final third successful passes."

Yes, that does come as a big surprise as he has come in for a lot of stick this season. Without him, it looks like we'd be in trouble.

The Cat · 31 May, 2021

Presumably these type of player stats only available for Premier League teams? I'd have been interested to see Gunn's this season to see where he stands in comparison with the other 2 keepers.

TWar · 31 May, 2021

28 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Presumably these type of player stats only available for Premier League teams? I'd have been interested to see Gunn's this season to see where he stands in comparison with the other 2 keepers.

Unfortunately so

Matthew Le God · 31 May, 2021

1 hour ago, The Cat said:

Presumably these type of player stats only available for Premier League teams? I'd have been interested to see Gunn's this season to see where he stands in comparison with the other 2 keepers.

35 minutes ago, TWar said:

Unfortunately so

Can use this for some stats...

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/318896/Show/Angus-Gunn

TWar · 31 May, 2021

2 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Can use this for some stats...

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/318896/Show/Angus-Gunn

Couldn't find many raw stats on there for goalkeeping, but this doesn't bode well:

Saint_clark · 31 May, 2021

I really like checking Who scored when we're linked with a player, they come to those conclusions using the Opta stats that you have to pay a huge amount to access I believe.

Wurzel · 1 June, 2021

Great info thanks for taking time to post it.

Stats like that always amaze me. I know selective memory plays tricks on us but back in the day it seemed the likes of Chris Nicol and Dave Watson would head away dozens of crosses every game, whilst Jimmy Case and Terry Hurlock would have made 25 tackles (some of them fair) before half time every game. Nowadays 3 per 90 minutes is good!

Nordic Saint · 1 June, 2021

On 31/05/2021 at 09:58, TWar said:

Couldn't find many raw stats on there for goalkeeping, but this doesn't bode well:

Looks like he's strong at concentrating on watching the ball go into his net.

Edited 2 June, 2021 by Nordic Saint

Southampton - A statistical analysis (20/21 edition)

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