Coronavirus

[sadoldgit]

You’ve obviously had one last lunchtime session before your 4 month isolation. Take a break and sober up.

 

 

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So what are you saying? They can bring home normal cold and flu viruses but not Covid-19?

 

And I am the one needs to sober up?

 

Weren’t you the one who was telling us via your “snap dragon” that this was very serious? Not via school kids then.

[Weston Super Saint]

Maybe if enough people didn't pay the mortgage. The point is if I knew there was a significant chance I would die if I went out to work then I wouldn't go and I'd take my chances with the mortgage. You'd like to think that the banks would be a bit understanding given the circumstances but if it came down to it I'd certainly risk eventual loss of my house over forcing myself to work and risking death.

 

For how long - one week, two, a month, six?

[Lord Duckhunter]

True, but would they ?

 

Provided it didn’t threaten their liquidity I’m sure they would. They don’t want to be repossessing thousands of houses. A solution maybe a 6 month mortgage holiday, with the 6 months being added to the end of the original term. The Government would probably have to arrange some sort of guarantee, but it’s not really a problem. The issue will be people who lose their jobs because of this, who than can’t meet the payments once the mortgage holiday is over.

 

Private renters is a far more difficult & complex problem, and the Government will really need to get involved with that.

 

 

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[Weston Super Saint]

And you trust Government IT systems ?

 

Ah, I see, so when the information is published, we can immediately rebuke it because it has come from a Government IT system!

[badgerx16]

https://politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstreatments/news/110595/matt-hancock-insists-herd-immunity-not-part

 

"Matt Hancock has insisted that creating so-called "herd immunity" in the UK against coronavirus is not part of the Government's plan for tackling the killer illness."

[Lord Duckhunter]

So what are you saying? They can bring home normal cold and flu viruses but not Covid-19?

 

And I am the one needs to sober up?

 

Weren’t you the one who was telling us via your “snap dragon” that this was very serious? Not via school kids then.

 

It is incredibly serious, the preparations her hospital is making are frightening. But, thank god, children don’t seem to be affected as badly. The situation can not be compared with other illness’ that start at school and are taken home to the rest of the family. Schools will undoubtably close, but the advice the Government is getting is that now is not the time and will be counter productive.

 

 

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[sadoldgit]

I remember getting stuck for this, but remember, as far as Universal Credit goes, they will cover your rent but they won’t cover your mortgage repayments.

[badgerx16]

Ah, I see, so when the information is published, we can immediately rebuke it because it has come from a Government IT system!

As long as it hasn't come from the same stable as Universal Credit, or the new Electoral Registration system, then it will probably be OK. ( Based on years of experience of trying to interface local IT systems with central government's ).

[Saint Billy]

Maybe if enough people didn't pay the mortgage. The point is if I knew there was a significant chance I would die if I went out to work then I wouldn't go and I'd take my chances with the mortgage. You'd like to think that the banks would be a bit understanding given the circumstances but if it came down to it I'd certainly risk eventual loss of my house over forcing myself to work and risking death.

 

I think the chances of banks being a bit understanding is unlikely despite all their claims and sound bytes. Plus, many people rent, are landlords going to be as understanding?. It is a dilemma because there are not many in this day and age that can survive on £90 odd quid a week let alone the time and red tape to get to that point.

 

Perhaps the herd process will end up being the only way to go.

[aintforever]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

Epidemiologist who thought reports of UK approach were a joke....

 

That’s a worrying read.

 

I’m more than happy for the government to follow the advice of the experts, I just hope the government are not taking a more risky approach just for the sake of the economy. Saving lives is all that matters.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I think the chances of banks being a bit understanding is unlikely despite all their claims and sound bytes.

 

You think the banks want to repossess hundreds of thousands of houses, and see the property market crash?

 

 

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[sadoldgit]

Just heard from my brother who has worked in pharma all his life. Started off with Burroughs & Wellcome back in the 70’s. He now works for a company who audit the ingredients going into meds. He says that they are making progress on a vaccine but that it is probably at least a year away. As for the UK, they reckon we will be in lockdown in the next week. Didn’t have much advice for prevention other than what we know but did suggest taking concentrated garlic every day as garlic has an anti micro activity.

 

Eek.

[Weston Super Saint]

As long as it hasn't come from the same stable as Universal Credit, or the new Electoral Registration system, then it will probably be OK. ( Based on years of experience of trying to interface local IT systems with central government's ).

 

Fingers crossed! Considering there's been four open letters to get this information published, you'd hope it will probably be OK!

[Weston Super Saint]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

Epidemiologist who thought reports of UK approach were a joke....

 

Odd then, that the WHO seems to support the UK's approach....

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak/

 

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries. However, in certain circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with few international connections and limited response capacities.

 

Travel measures that significantly interfere with international traffic may only be justified at the beginning of an outbreak, as they may allow countries to gain time, even if only a few days, to rapidly implement effective preparedness measures. Such restrictions must be based on a careful risk assessment, be proportionate to the public health risk, be short in duration, and be reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves.

[shurlock]

Odd then, that the WHO seems to support the UK's approach....

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak/

 

 

First and trivially that’s from Feb 29 (two weeks is a long time) and second and more importantly where in the extract does it provide support for ‘herd immunity’ as a policy approach or goal? It’s a series of recommendations for international travel. By contrast and fwiw, a WHO spokesperson has already questioned the idea of herd immunity given we don’t know enough about the virus in immunological terms.

 

#classicwestie

Edited 15 March, 2020 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

First and trivially that’s from Feb 29 (two weeks is a long time) and second and more importantly where in the extract does it provide support for ‘herd immunity’ as a policy approach or goal? It’s a series of recommendations for international travel. By contrast and fwiw, a WHO spokesperson has already questioned the idea of herd immunity given we don’t know enough about the virus in immunological terms.

 

#classicwestie

 

It doesn't provide support for 'herd immunity' and I've never claimed it did!

 

Perhaps you missed the text that I handily copied - perhaps you fell asleep earlier when it was being discussed that teachers were calling for schools to be shut but Boris was the big bad ogre for not listening to them.

 

Anyway, to re-iterate (and to make it very clear to you what my point is, as it seems to have slipped past you as always) :

 

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries. However, in certain circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with few international connections and limited response capacities.

 

Whilst two weeks may be a long time in certain contexts, the fact that the WHO have stated restricting movement (and by that I am inferring both international and domestic, as frankly in this context there really isn't that much difference) during public health emergencies is ineffective, should suggest that the current policy of not restricting movement is the right one....

 

#typicalnarcissistmakingassumptionsaboutwhatpeoplearesayingandthenclaimingtobeallsuperior

[shurlock]

It doesn't provide support for 'herd immunity' and I've never claimed it did!

 

Perhaps you missed the text that I handily copied - perhaps you fell asleep earlier when it was being discussed that teachers were calling for schools to be shut but Boris was the big bad ogre for not listening to them.

 

Anyway, to re-iterate (and to make it very clear to you what my point is, as it seems to have slipped past you as always) :

 

 

 

Whilst two weeks may be a long time in certain contexts, the fact that the WHO have stated restricting movement (and by that I am inferring both international and domestic, as frankly in this context there really isn't that much difference) during public health emergencies is ineffective, should suggest that the current policy of not restricting movement is the right one....

 

#typicalnarcissistmakingassumptionsaboutwhatpeoplearesayingandthenclaimingtobeallsuperior

 

So why did you cite/respond to an article that was all about the UK’s approach of herd immunity (a terrible approach in the article’s view)? And then claim the WHO supported the UK’s approach? Any reasonable person would assume you were responding to the points in the guardian article. Perhaps you responded to the guardian article and its critique of herd immunity for the kicks? Or perhaps you didn’t actually bother to read or understand the article you were attempting to refute?

 

#classicwestie

Edited 16 March, 2020 by shurlock

[Raging Bull]

And could well be being tested as a weapon

 

*potentially*

 

Just gonna drop this in here

 

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/scientist-says-covid-19-is-man-made-and-was-released-from-wuhan-lab/

[Jonnyboy]

Despite the editors note, this makes interesting reading:

https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

[Doctoroncall]

Dear god, are you for real?

 

You wouldn’t ask the Government’s Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor to teach class 3A.

 

Imagine the response from you lot if Boris said “I’m going against my Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor’s advise because Mrs Harrison the head teacher of Halfwit Academy thinks we should close schools.

 

To clarify, he’s taking advice from the people whose job it is to offer advice in these circumstances. If you had a problem with your boiler, would you take advice from a decorator or a plumber?

 

 

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The problem/issue isn’t the following of scientific advice but the execution of the plan.

 

Why was Hunt questioning the current policy? He is closer than most to the source of information. It creates confusion.

 

Why is Matt Hancock saying different things (not following herd immunity) in his latest media communications than the PM and advisors? It creates confusion.

 

Why is the head of the BMA stating we don’t have enough medical equipment and not prepared now? We had a lead time of two months.

 

Why are head teachers questioning what is happening as teachers will be on the front line? What safeguards will be place for them.

 

Important stakeholders who are needed to help execute the plan if it is to succeed surely. Better to have them onside/ clear on the plan than causing confusion.

[Fan The Flames]

Just heard from my brother who has worked in pharma all his life. Started off with Burroughs & Wellcome back in the 70’s. He now works for a company who audit the ingredients going into meds. He says that they are making progress on a vaccine but that it is probably at least a year away. As for the UK, they reckon we will be in lockdown in the next week. Didn’t have much advice for prevention other than what we know but did suggest taking concentrated garlic every day as garlic has an anti micro activity.

 

Eek.

 

You could probably get as much inside information if you talked to an actual farmer.

[CB Fry]

Why is the head of the BMA stating we don’t have enough medical equipment and not prepared now? We had a lead time of two months.

 

 

.

 

Were you seriously expecting the head of the BMA to come out and say "yes, we've got plenty of beds, plenty of staff and plenty of ventilators for this international pandemic because we started planning on New Year's Day"?

[CB Fry]

You could probably get as much inside information if you talked to an actual farmer.

SOG inside information seems to match exactly what anyone watching or reading the news could pick up. Except the garlic thing, although that's probably in the Daily Express.

[Wes Tender]

Didn’t have much advice for prevention other than what we know but did suggest taking concentrated garlic every day as garlic has an anti micro activity.

 

Eek.

 

So how come the Italians have got it so bad? Lack of garlic in their diet?

[benjii]

Interesting simulations:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

Begs the question what exactly the government is trying to do to achieve "delay" when social distancing seems highly effective in flattening the curve.

[hypochondriac]

So how come the Italians have got it so bad? Lack of garlic in their diet?

My question is why aren't we ignorong the official advice from those nobodies and stocking up on garlic like soggy and the pharmacy expert advise?

[Fan The Flames]

The problem/issue isn’t the following of scientific advice but the execution of the plan.

 

Why was Hunt questioning the current policy? He is closer than most to the source of information. It creates confusion.

 

Why is Matt Hancock saying different things (not following herd immunity) in his latest media communications than the PM and advisors? It creates confusion.

 

Why is the head of the BMA stating we don’t have enough medical equipment and not prepared now? We had a lead time of two months.

 

Why are head teachers questioning what is happening as teachers will be on the front line? What safeguards will be place for them.

 

Important stakeholders who are needed to help execute the plan if it is to succeed surely. Better to have them onside/ clear on the plan than causing confusion.

 

Why are teachers on the front line? Teachers seem to be a bit precious in all of this, they want schools to close but I suspect they wouldn't want supermarkets or other 'frontline' facilities to close.

[Colinjb]

Why are teachers on the front line? Teachers seem to be a bit precious in all of this, they want schools to close but I suspect they wouldn't want supermarkets or other 'frontline' facilities to close.

 

Schools are basically germ factories, all those young people with immature immune systems in one place. Schools are a massive risk vector.

[sadoldgit]

My question is why aren't we ignorong the official advice from those nobodies and stocking up on garlic like soggy and the pharmacy expert advise?

 

Unlike you to make an inane comment. You carry on listening to Johnson and I am sure you will be just fine, especially when he has “squashed the sombrero.” Read The Guardian today. There is some good advice. Sadly it is from someone contradicting the Government, so you might ignore it.

[sadoldgit]

Schools are basically germ factories, all those young people with immature immune systems in one place. Schools are a massive risk vector.

 

Exactly why they should have been closed down already.

[hypochondriac]

Unlike you to make an inane comment. You carry on listening to Johnson and I am sure you will be just fine, especially when he has “squashed the sombrero.” Read The Guardian today. There is some good advice. Sadly it is from someone contradicting the Government, so you might ignore it.

There's only one person in this conversation absolutely certain they know which side is right and which is wrong and it ain't me pal.

[norwaysaint]

Haven't really looked in here much, so I only know what's happening in here through the BBC.

 

Norway is pretty much locked down now. Only residents allowed to come in, but the airports are still mostly open. All schools closed since last week and all teaching from secondary school up is now online. If they don't turn up for the online lesson, they still get absence and might not graduate.

 

When this got announced last week, we started to see the panic buying, but shops are mostly still well stocked, it just took time to refill the shelves with the small daytime staff that was there. People are encouraged to work from home if they can, lots of people temporarily laid off and getting a fraction of their pay. Bars are closed but restaurants are currently still allowed to open. Self isolation is the norm here now, but I was out walking in the mountains at the weekend and people are still using the great outdoors, rather than just lock themselves in. Public transport is limited too, both in the service and number of people allowed on.

 

Are schools closing in the UK yet? Seems amazing if they aren't.

[norwaysaint]

what's happening there*

[sadoldgit]

There's only one person in this conversation absolutely certain they know which side is right and which is wrong and it ain't me pal.

 

I don’t know what is right pal, but I do know who I don’t trust.

[norwaysaint]

Oh, is this one of those "hypo and SOG squabble with each other threads :uhoh:". Damn.

[Heisenberg]

Mods can we please put a 3 post limit on ‘registered posters’ again

[Colinjb]

Are schools closing in the UK yet? Seems amazing if they aren't.

 

No. I'm self isolating until Friday due to developing a cough. I'm currently setting cover work for my classes. The school is struggling with staff isolating/absence, there are not enough cover teachers to go around so they are having to piece together schedules with whichever staff are available. Wanted to see how many children were absent but my registers have already been reallocated from our admin system so cannot see.

 

There are no plans to close, our head is following government advice and we will react accordingly. Contingency measures are being made for online learning when the closures come, whether they will work is another matter entirely. It will be just as reliant on parents ensuring their children are sticking to the schedule as it would be on the children themselves (who, let's face it, will treat it as a holiday. Enforcing any kind of discipline from afar will be impossible.)

[CB Fry]

Not shutting the schools is one of the better decisions made by the government. If they've got any sense keep them open until the Easter holiday.

[norwaysaint]

No. I'm self isolating until Friday due to developing a cough. I'm currently setting cover work for my classes. The school is struggling with staff isolating/absence, there are not enough cover teachers to go around so they are having to piece together schedules with whichever staff are available. Wanted to see how many children were absent but my registers have already been reallocated from our admin system so cannot see.

 

There are no plans to close, our head is following government advice and we will react accordingly. Contingency measures are being made for online learning when the closures come, whether they will work is another matter entirely. It will be just as reliant on parents ensuring their children are sticking to the schedule as it would be on the children themselves (who, let's face it, will treat it as a holiday. Enforcing any kind of discipline from afar will be impossible.)

 

Just done my first couple of lessons online. It was okay, we had a video conference and I set them a research task, which they did independently and came back to share an hour later. It went surprisingly smoothly, but obviously not as good as a normal lesson.

 

Norway has a very strict 10% rule on absence and if you go above it without documentation, you don't graduate. It's being enforced for home learning too, so if they don't log on, they get absence. I had a full class for the first one, two missing for the second.

[Batman]

Not shutting the schools is one of the better decisions made by the government. If they've got any sense keep them open until the Easter holiday.

 

Obvious that any lockdown regarding kids is being pushed to sit around their Easter break.

[Raging Bull]

Not shutting the schools is one of the better decisions made by the government. If they've got any sense keep them open until the Easter holiday.

 

My kids school is considering Making easter a 4 week holiday, along with shortening the summer break to 4 weeks instead of 6.

[benjii]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html#click=https://t.co/u11ixyyDae

[sandwichsaint]

Obvious that any lockdown regarding kids is being pushed to sit around their Easter break.

 

Let's hope covid 19 is fully conversant with the Gregorian calendar then. Mind you it could be worse, thank goodness we're not relying on the virus knowing when Boxing Day is:uhoh:

[Guided Missile]

Meanwhile, to bring some sanity to this debate, read this WHO article from 2018

 

Seasonal influenza is an acute respiratory infection caused by influenza viruses which circulate in all parts of the world.

The pathogen

There are 4 types of seasonal influenza viruses, types A, B, C and D. Influenza A and B viruses circulate and cause seasonal epidemics of disease.

 

Influenza A viruses are further classified into subtypes according to the combinations of the hemagglutinin (HA) and the neuraminidase (NA), the proteins on the surface of the virus. Currently circulating in humans are subtype A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) influenza viruses. The A(H1N1) is also written as A(H1N1)pdm09 as it caused the pandemic in 2009 and subsequently replaced the seasonal influenza A(H1N1) virus which had circulated prior to 2009. Only influenza type A viruses are known to have caused pandemics.

Influenza B viruses are not classified into subtypes, but can be broken down into lineages. Currently circulating influenza type B viruses belong to either B/Yamagata or B/Victoria lineage.

Influenza C virus is detected less frequently and usually causes mild infections, thus does not present public health importance.

Influenza D viruses primarily affect cattle and are not known to infect or cause illness in people.

Signs and symptoms

Seasonal influenza is characterized by a sudden onset of fever, cough (usually dry), headache, muscle and joint pain, severe malaise (feeling unwell), sore throat and a runny nose. The cough can be severe and can last 2 or more weeks. Most people recover from fever and other symptoms within a week without requiring medical attention. But influenza can cause severe illness or death especially in people at high risk (see below).

 

Illnesses range from mild to severe and even death. Hospitalization and death occur mainly among high risk groups. Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths.

 

In industrialized countries most deaths associated with influenza occur among people age 65 or older (1). Epidemics can result in high levels of worker/school absenteeism and productivity losses. Clinics and hospitals can be overwhelmed during peak illness periods.

 

Plus ça change....

[norwaysaint]

They've been criticised here for not shutting things down sooner, but here they are trying to slow the spread, so that services can cope. The UK is going for this herd thing and just letting people catch it, so things are bound to be different.

[sadoldgit]

We have been advised against large gatherings of people. Aren’t schools large gatherings of people?

Currently in Tescos. Rammed. Still no loo rolls dried pasta etc. Just as well the public heeded the plea against panic buying.

[sadoldgit]

They've been criticised here for not shutting things down sooner, but here they are trying to slow the spread, so that services can cope. The UK is going for this herd thing and just letting people catch it, so things are bound to be different.

 

Despite the herd thing being debunked in many quarters. Happy days!

[RedArmy]

We have been advised against large gatherings of people

When?

[norwaysaint]

We have been advised against large gatherings of people. Aren’t schools large gatherings of people?

Currently in Tescos. Rammed. Still no loo rolls dried pasta etc. Just as well the public heeded the plea against panic buying.

 

Public transport was the big blindspot here. They were going on about staying one metre apart and still allowing buses and trams to be packed tight for about three or four hours a day. At the same time we have massive tolls for driving in the city, still active and discouraging everyone from using private cars.

[badgerx16]

Meanwhile, to bring some sanity to this debate, read this WHO article from 2018

Plus ça change....

And your point is.....?

 

The process for manufacturing and distributing flu vaccines is well established, and there is also evidence that you develope at least a partial immunity to all influenzas in a particular group if your first exposure to a flu virus is a strain within that group. There is currently no inherent immunity to COVID-19, nor any chance of a vaccine within a year.

Edited 16 March, 2020 by badgerx16