Coronavirus

[RedArmy]

I'm not qualified to critique the different approaches - but it seems to me that the Chinese / Taiwanese / Italian approach buys you more time to get health services prepared. Matt Hancock was saying this morning the UK only has 5,000 ventilators, needs "many more times that number" and is desperately trying to source more and train staff to use them. Delaying the peak till month 9 rather than month 4 would be an enormous help presumably.

But that would also be peak flu season when the NHS is already stretched to its maximum.

[Saint_clark]

I thought it had been confirmed you can be infected more than once? If so letting it burn through the lower risk people seems like a **** poor idea as it will just keep bouncing around all of them anyway.

 

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[egg]

I'm not qualified to critique the different approaches - but it seems to me that the Chinese / Taiwanese / Italian approach buys you more time to get health services prepared. Matt Hancock was saying this morning the UK only has 5,000 ventilators, needs "many more times that number" and is desperately trying to source more and train staff to use them. Delaying the peak till month 9 rather than month 4 would be an enormous help presumably.

 

Yep. It seems obvious. More infections now = more sick people now.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Also to create, test, and produce a vaccine. Presumably the Chinese, Italian, and all other foreign Governments are listening to their experts, and basing their action plans on the advice they receive.

 

As is Boris.

 

It would be bizarre if he wasn’t, and people like you would be criticising him.

 

I

 

 

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[sadoldgit]

Apparently Trump is offering. German pharma company “a great deal of money” for access to their work on a vaccine, but for the US only. Don’t you just love nationalism?

[sadoldgit]

Boris could personally find a cure & produce a vaccine and the usually suspects on here would moan “what’s taken him so long, a dozen people have died whilst he was fannying around”. Imagine if he had a Government Chief Scientific Adviser & a Chief Medical Officer and then proceeded to ignore their advice, Soggy and his gang of soft arrested lefties would be going nuts. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

 

The 2 guys CV’s make pretty impressive reading, admittedly they’d probably get Watford relegated & Professor Chris Whitty’s Life Stories would be a pretty ****ty TV programme , but they’re highly expert in their field, and more importantly, are aware of the whole picture and all the facts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Johnson’s responses to the virus could end up costing thousands more lives, and still the usual suspects on here would be defending him.

[sadoldgit]

are they?

 

Are you? You seem to know an awful lot about mortality projections for a cook.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Johnson’s responses to the virus could end up costing thousands more lives, and still the usual suspects on here would be defending him.

 

He’s following the advice he’s received, what do you want him to do? Ignore it, and ask Piers Morgan & Nigel Pearson.

 

 

 

 

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[hypochondriac]

Johnson’s responses to the virus could end up costing thousands more lives, and still the usual suspects on here would be defending him.

Conversely, Johnson's response as informed by the experts could save thousands of lives and still the usual suspects on here woild be slagging him off. You don't have a clue about what the correct strategy is yet tmypi are the one mouthing off in every other post about how awful the UKs response is.

[hypochondriac]

Are you? You seem to know an awful lot about mortality projections for a cook.

Pot meet kettle!!!

[whelk]

Typical of Saintsweb for this subject turn into a spat.

 

What is SOG going to be liked cooped up for months?!

[hypochondriac]

Typical of Saintsweb for this subject turn into a spat.

 

What is SOG going to be liked cooped up for months?!

Indeed. Mine and it seems most sensible people's stance is admitting that they don't have enough information to know about this more than the experts advising the government, hoping that they are right whilst admitting a bit of nervousness about the path we are taking.

 

Soggys stance is to lambast and criticise Boris Johnson personally for listening to the advice of his own scientific experts and suggesting he either isn't doing anything or he's doing the wrong sort of things (he hasn't actually said which one). This response appears to primarily be because he's a Conservative and therefore evil.

 

I wonder if given the choice between the UK experts being correct and lives being saved or then being wrong and losing lots more lives but Boris looking silly which one soggy would choose? I bet he'd have a pause before answering which tells you all you need to know really.

[whelk]

He’s following the advice he’s received, what do you want him to do? Ignore it, and ask Piers Morgan & Nigel Pearson.

 

 

 

 

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Is it wrong to want Piers Morgan to get it and have severe symptoms?

[badgerx16]

As is Boris.

 

It would be bizarre if he wasn’t, and people like you would be criticising him.

 

Unfortunately we won't know who's advice and approach is most effective for over a year, and only after potentially tens of thousands of deaths.

[badgerx16]

Is it wrong to want Piers Morgan to get it and have severe symptoms?

 

Is it wrong to be disappointed that DT tested negative ?

[Doctoroncall]

Typical of Saintsweb for this subject turn into a spat.

 

What is SOG going to be liked cooped up for months?!

 

It’s a shame the thread has been reduced to point scoring.

 

I thought it had been confirmed you can be infected more than once? If so letting it burn through the lower risk people seems like a **** poor idea as it will just keep bouncing around all of them anyway.

 

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Pot meet kettle!!!

 

It hasn’t been confirmed. It can take 1-3 weeks to form antibodies. No one knows if immunity is short term only. More studies are needed.

 

It’s must likely those infected can have a relapse. The virus has been found in swabs from throats four weeks later.

[hypochondriac]

It’s a shame the thread has been reduced to point scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

It hasn’t been confirmed. It can take 1-3 weeks to form antibodies. No one knows if immunity is short term only. More studies are needed.

 

It’s must likely those infected can have a relapse. The virus has been found in swabs from throats four weeks later.

That's true but I think the thinking was that you weren't infectious at that point? I could have read that wrong though. Like you say though it's very early so still a lot of unknowns. Let's pray that in general you're immune for a reasonable period of time.

[Weston Super Saint]

One question....

 

Are people dying "as a result" of the virus - i.e severe symptoms that are directly attributable to the virus - or are people dying (which is a natural occurence) but also test positive for the virus, or is it a combination of the two?

 

If it is the latter then the number of people dying who also have the virus is going to increase dramatically as the rate of infection across the nation increases. Given that about 1400 people die in the UK every day (I guess slightly more are born every day), then as the rate of infection rises to around 60-80% of the population, then statistically 840 to 1100 people will die every day who also test positive for the virus, which is obviously an enormous number but doesn't necassarily increase the natural number of people dying every day...

 

Is there any research / statistical information that says how many people are currently dying as a result of the virus in addition to the base line mortality rate?

[sadoldgit]

Unfortunately we won't know who's advice and approach is most effective for over a year, and only after potentially tens of thousands of deaths.

 

Whatever advice is given, I am not sure that The Great British Public will listen to it. Despite being told that there is no need to stockpile there were still no loo rolls, dried pasta, painkillers etc. around in local supermarkets today.

[sadoldgit]

Typical of Saintsweb for this subject turn into a spat.

 

What is SOG going to be liked cooped up for months?!

 

Not much different Whelk. Unless I get it and then, as an old git, I shall be left to croak, so very quiet thereafter.

[hypochondriac]

Not much different Whelk. Unless I get it and then, as an old git, I shall be left to croak, so very quiet thereafter.

Look on the bright side. If you get it and it's serious, at least you will go knowing that you've made a small contribution towards painting Boris in a negative light. Let's hope not though eh?

[sadoldgit]

So Richard Branson wants the Government to bail Virgin Airlines out to the tune of £7.5billion. Remind me again Richard, do you pay any taxes in the UK?

[badgerx16]

Whatever advice is given, I am not sure that The Great British Public will listen to it. Despite being told that there is no need to stockpile there were still no loo rolls, dried pasta, painkillers etc. around in local supermarkets today.

 

Well, if the supermarkets are correct in that there are no issues in the supply chain, then next week there should be no problems, as the stockpilers won't need to go again for quite a while.

[badgerx16]

So Richard Branson wants the Government to bail Virgin Airlines out to the tune of £7.5billion. Remind me again Richard, do you pay any taxes in the UK?

Railway operating companies are also asking for financial assistance.

[Whitey Grandad]

So Richard Branson wants the Government to bail Virgin Airlines out to the tune of £7.5billion. Remind me again Richard, do you pay any taxes in the UK?

 

Railway operating companies are also asking for financial assistance.

The whole country is going to need financial assistance very soon.

[sadoldgit]

He’s following the advice he’s received, what do you want him to do? Ignore it, and ask Piers Morgan & Nigel Pearson.

 

There seems to be other advice used by others that is equally being ignored. For examples, teachers are asking why schools are not being closed.

[Batman]

He’s following the advice he’s received, what do you want him to do? Ignore it, and ask Piers Morgan & Nigel Pearson.

 

There seems to be other advice used by others that is equally being ignored. For examples, teachers are asking why schools are not being closed.

 

Who looks after the kids if the schools are closed?

[Whitey Grandad]

So Richard Branson wants the Government to bail Virgin Airlines out to the tune of £7.5billion. Remind me again Richard, do you pay any taxes in the UK?

 

 

Who looks after the kids if the schools are closed?

 

Grandparents of course.

 

Oops.

[sadoldgit]

The whole country is going to need financial assistance very soon.

 

Playing Devils Advocate, isn’t Capitalism all about survival of the fittest? The people I feel sorry for are the small businesses. Many of them will go to the wall and there will be no hand outs from the Government to save them.

[sadoldgit]

 

Who looks after the kids if the schools are closed?

 

Who looks after the kids if the parents are self isolating?

[Lord Duckhunter]

 

There seems to be other advice used by others that is equally being ignored. For examples, teachers are asking why schools are not being closed.

 

Dear god, are you for real?

 

You wouldn’t ask the Government’s Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor to teach class 3A.

 

Imagine the response from you lot if Boris said “I’m going against my Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor’s advise because Mrs Harrison the head teacher of Halfwit Academy thinks we should close schools.

 

To clarify, he’s taking advice from the people whose job it is to offer advice in these circumstances. If you had a problem with your boiler, would you take advice from a decorator or a plumber?

 

 

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[sadoldgit]

When my kids were younger I was always getting bugs they brought back from school. Why is Covid-19 any different?

[Lord Duckhunter]

When my kids were younger I was always getting bugs they brought back from school. Why is Covid-19 any different?

 

You’ve obviously had one last lunchtime session before your 4 month isolation. Take a break and sober up.

 

 

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[RedArmy]

Dear god, are you for real?

 

You wouldn’t ask the Government’s Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor to teach class 3A.

 

Imagine the response from you lot if Boris said “I’m going against my Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor’s advise because Mrs Harrison the head teacher of Halfwit Academy thinks we should close schools.

 

To clarify, he’s taking advice from the people whose job it is to offer advice in these circumstances. If you had a problem with your boiler, would you take advice from a decorator or a plumber?

 

 

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It depends if my plumber thinks it’s the gas valve, while every other plumber in the world thinks it’s the PCB. I might go for a second opinion in those circumstances.

[aintforever]

The whole country is going to need financial assistance very soon.

 

This. Just been into town to watch parasite and the place is deserted, it’s like a scene from walking dead. The high street, travel companies, anything related to sports, tourism etc are going to struggle. Many of my clients are Premier League clubs and all of a sudden there’s going to be no work for months. The banks are going to have to cut people a lot of slack or the whole system is going to crash.

[Lord Duckhunter]

It depends if my plumber thinks it’s the gas valve, while every other plumber in the world thinks it’s the PCB. I might go for a second opinion in those circumstances.

 

But you wouldn’t ask a teacher. Soggy was complaining the Government wasn’t listening to teachers.

 

 

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[Saint Billy]

I know a few people who have said that if the case arises that they are told to self isolate they won’t because they cannot afford to even if someone in their household has it. I suspect this thought process is not uncommon.

[hypochondriac]

I know a few people who have said that if the case arises that they are told to self isolate they won’t because they cannot afford to even if someone in their household has it. I suspect this thought process is not uncommon.

What do people mean by can't afford to? Everyone can claim benefits and if you absolutely had to you could live off the most basic of rations for a few months. I'm not suggesting fora second that that would be easy or desirable but if you absolutely had to and you knew it would keep you alive then you absolutely could survive.

[Saint Billy]

What do people mean by can't afford to? Everyone can claim benefits and if you absolutely had to you could live off the most basic of rations for a few months. I'm not suggesting fora second that that would be easy or desirable but if you absolutely had to and you knew it would keep you alive then you absolutely could survive.

 

I agree but I can see a lot of people having the same mind set. God knows the outcome if that is a popular view.

[shurlock]

Another open letter (4 and counting):

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfxKs8sYwHSLwhtQGP_oar1SJwfKtkXwCIJXAXKAsJfGYKF2w/viewform?vc=0&c=0&w=1

Edited 15 March, 2020 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

I know a few people who have said that if the case arises that they are told to self isolate they won’t because they cannot afford to even if someone in their household has it. I suspect this thought process is not uncommon.

 

And this is why the Italian model of complete isolation won't work - there will always be people who will be wandering around spreading the virus, so when the world returns to normal, there will be no immunity for those that have hidden away and they will start all over again....

 

What do people mean by can't afford to? Everyone can claim benefits and if you absolutely had to you could live off the most basic of rations for a few months. I'm not suggesting fora second that that would be easy or desirable but if you absolutely had to and you knew it would keep you alive then you absolutely could survive.

 

If you are a home owner with a sizeable mortgage which you have comfortably paid whilst working (employed or self employed) to suddenly have your income cut to £94.25 per week means something is going to have to give. Granted, you can get the basics to live off with the money but I suspect the bank manager won't be happy to live without his money for long, never mind the numerous contracts - mobile, broadband, sky etc etc - that have been entered into in good faith and were previously affordable...

 

However, the government will only subsidise SSP for TWO WEEKS and that's only for businesses with less than 250 employees. Then it will be up to employers to foot the bill - if the economy is shut down, how are small businesses going to afford this?

[badgerx16]

What do people mean by can't afford to? Everyone can claim benefits and if you absolutely had to you could live off the most basic of rations for a few months. I'm not suggesting fora second that that would be easy or desirable but if you absolutely had to and you knew it would keep you alive then you absolutely could survive.

 

Mortgages and rents - how much can be covered, if any, by the benefits system, especially if large numbers try to claim ?

[hypochondriac]

Mortgages and rents - how much can be covered, if any, by the benefits system, especially if large numbers try to claim ?

If it really was life or death then I just wouldn't pay my rent or mortgage for the duration of my isolation and take my chances. They've cancelled all mortgage payments in Italy I believe, would be good if they did something similar here.

[badgerx16]

They've cancelled all mortgage payments in Italy I believe, would be good if they did something similar here.

 

True, but would they ?

[sadoldgit]

What do people mean by can't afford to? Everyone can claim benefits and if you absolutely had to you could live off the most basic of rations for a few months. I'm not suggesting fora second that that would be easy or desirable but if you absolutely had to and you knew it would keep you alive then you absolutely could survive.

 

Everyone can claim benefits? You dint remember my posts about Universal Credit then. Good luck.

[Weston Super Saint]

Another open letter (4 and counting):

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfxKs8sYwHSLwhtQGP_oar1SJwfKtkXwCIJXAXKAsJfGYKF2w/viewform?vc=0&c=0&w=1

 

Seems a bit redundant to publish a fourth open letter when they've already said they will publish the computer models....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

 

Sir Patrick and the UK's chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, have said they intend to publish the computer models on which their strategy is based.

[benjii]

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

Epidemiologist who thought reports of UK approach were a joke....

[sadoldgit]

Just watched the news reports from a Italy and Spain. Scary that in a week or two that will be us.

[hypochondriac]

True, but would they ?

Maybe if enough people didn't pay the mortgage. The point is if I knew there was a significant chance I would die if I went out to work then I wouldn't go and I'd take my chances with the mortgage. You'd like to think that the banks would be a bit understanding given the circumstances but if it came down to it I'd certainly risk eventual loss of my house over forcing myself to work and risking death.

[badgerx16]

Seems a bit redundant to publish a fourth open letter when they've already said they will publish the computer models....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Originally Posted by BBC News

Sir Patrick and the UK's chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, have said they intend to publish the computer models on which their strategy is based.

 

And you trust Government IT systems ?