Coronavirus

[Hockey_saint]

19 minutes ago, The Kraken said:

DIY is subject to whatever conditions you sign up to when you book. 
 

flights: you can buy a flex ticket that does refunds etc, but most don’t. They go for the cheaper option. And right.y so in most cases.

Accommodation: varied, but in my experience a lot of accom has a decent refund policy, booking.com certainly do.

hire car: again you can buy flexible options but lots don’t, often mostly rightly so.

I haven’t bought a package holiday for quite some time, but DIY is a bit more complicated and has a little more risk associated, I think it would be daft to say otherwise. But always worth doing IMO.

I've only ever done diy to be fair and I don't drive and am happy to stay in cheaper accommodation as long as it's reasonably close to the place you want to see, You usually have to get separate insurance (or be opted into buying the company's one) so I suppose for me those complications don't usually matter but most places are ATOL protected so I recall.

[Weston Super Saint]

11 hours ago, shurlock said:

 The usual suspects can't be helped -reducing a complex illness with a range of outcomes to the risk of dying is a case in point -never mind ignoring the externalities of individual behaviour. But thankfully most health experts -hence why they're experts- exhibit a bit more respect and humility in the face of uncertainty. 

The 'usual suspects' of course, being Sir David Spiegelhalter.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/crunching-numbers-real-risks-dying-covid-19/

Not entirely sure what the actions of 'most health experts' have got to do with the overwhelming majority of the British public, given that they are the ones that are exhibiting complacency and this spreading the disease.

[Weston Super Saint]

15 hours ago, The Kraken said:

Again, you have a complete misconception that your own experience is how it is for absolutely everyone else. It isn’t. I’m not sure how you’re not grasping this, but I’ll try to help.

Tui are perhaps the leading travel agent in the country and they certainly don’t adhere to your theory.  Here’s their terms and conditions.

https://www.tui.co.uk/destinations/booking/tandc?ptype=PDP

Thomas Cook are much the same.

http://1063457201.n137365.test.prositehosting.co.uk/general-booking-terms-and-conditions/

 

Lol.  So you're emphasising your point using Thomas Cook's terms and conditions!  The same Thomas Cook that ceased trading in September 2019!

Even so, let's pretend for a minute that the t's & c's for an insolvent company are still valid, they state :

Quote

Time we receive your notice to cancel before departure	Cancellation charge
More than 70 days	Loss of deposit Loss of deposit
70-57 days	30% cost of holiday (or loss of deposit if greater)
56-29 days	50% cost of holiday
28-22 days	70% cost of holiday
21-8 days	90% cost of holiday
7 days or fewer	100% cost of holiday

Pretty clear, right, the closer to the holiday date that you cancel your holiday, the less money you get back.

But wait, what's that, your cancellation insurance will cover the losses, I mean, you do have cancellation insurance don't you?  You know, fairly standard insurance policies which cover :

Quote

What am I covered for with cancellation travel insurance?

Cancellation travel insurance covers the cost of your holiday if you have to cancel as a result of unforeseen circumstances.

The cost of your holiday generally includes:

• Pre-booked transport, such as plane or train tickets
• Pre-booked accommodation, including hotels, campsites and hostels
• Other pre-booked expenses, such as excursions and tours

And most insurers will pay out if the cause of your cancellation is one of the following:

• An accidental injury or illness
• A fire or flooding at your home
• Your destination becoming unsafe
• Jury duty
• A bereavement

Oh, look at that, it even has 'your destination becoming unsafe' as an explicit reason when the insurance will pay out.  So when the FCO state you shouldn't go somewhere, your holiday company will pay out - providing they are ABTA or ATOL members - or, if you've decided to use a company who isn't a member or you've decided to book your own holiday, then your travel insurance cancellation policy will cover the losses of 'unforeseen circumstances'.

Fancy that, there really are several reasons why you 'should' receive a refund after all.

[egg]

37 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

The 'usual suspects' of course, being Sir David Spiegelhalter.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/crunching-numbers-real-risks-dying-covid-19/

Not entirely sure what the actions of 'most health experts' have got to do with the overwhelming majority of the British public, given that they are the ones that are exhibiting complacency and this spreading the disease.

That article refers risk of dying. Covid's impact is not as binary as living or dying. It's about the effects if you don't die.

A respiratory consultant explained to me the 4 possible effects of covid. 1.No symptoms, 2.mild symptoms, 3.really serious symptoms with unknown complications, 4.death.

There's no middle ground between the 2nd and 3rd areas. None. Its the complications at 3 which nobody wants.or really knows.I know a previously healthy and fit 46 year old woman who has been very ill for over 4 months. She hasn't died, but is left with multitude of life impacting issues to include neurological problems and arthritis. Who knew covid could cause those problems? I suspect you didn't. The reality is that they can.

Yes, there's living and dying, but there's a hell of a lot in the middle that no sane person wants to risk happening to them or someone else. 

[The Kraken]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Lol.  So you're emphasising your point using Thomas Cook's terms and conditions!  The same Thomas Cook that ceased trading in September 2019!

Even so, let's pretend for a minute that the t's & c's for an insolvent company are still valid, they state :

Pretty clear, right, the closer to the holiday date that you cancel your holiday, the less money you get back.

But wait, what's that, your cancellation insurance will cover the losses, I mean, you do have cancellation insurance don't you?  You know, fairly standard insurance policies which cover :

Oh, look at that, it even has 'your destination becoming unsafe' as an explicit reason when the insurance will pay out.  So when the FCO state you shouldn't go somewhere, your holiday company will pay out - providing they are ABTA or ATOL members - or, if you've decided to use a company who isn't a member or you've decided to book your own holiday, then your travel insurance cancellation policy will cover the losses of 'unforeseen circumstances'.

Fancy that, there really are several reasons why you 'should' receive a refund after all.

😂 good rant, I enjoyed that!

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, egg said:

 

Yes, there's living and dying, but there's a hell of a lot in the middle that no sane person wants to risk happening to them or someone else. 

Then we clearly have a lot of 'insane' people in this country with their complacency

[egg]

29 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Then we clearly have a lot of 'insane' people in this country with their complacency

Indeed we do. 

[whelk]

I think we should stop football until we get the schools back. And FFS why are we encouraging people to dine out at half price with no masks and then saying masks needed everywhere and we all getting complacent. Yeah all fucking crystal clear in the messaging.
 

Do the ‘ experts’ who thought bringing back sport was insane sort of understand they were 100% wrong and we haven’t been piling up the bodies?   

[egg]

17 minutes ago, whelk said:

I think we should stop football until we get the schools back. And FFS why are we encouraging people to dine out at half price with no masks and then saying masks needed everywhere and we all getting complacent. Yeah all fucking crystal clear in the messaging.
 

Do the ‘ experts’ who thought bringing back sport was insane sort of understand they were 100% wrong and we haven’t been piling up the bodies?   

You normally come across as a bright fella, but appear to have lost your way on this simple issue.

Complacency = ignoring distancing. Hope that helps. 

[whelk]

16 minutes ago, egg said:

You normally come across as a bright fella, but appear to have lost your way on this simple issue.

Complacency = ignoring distancing. Hope that helps. 

Not sure I have lost my way. I am intrigued how and where people are passing it on.

The messaging from government is a joke. Lost all credibility with me. Understand reacting to changing events isn’t easy but no one really understands the guidance now. PHE execs hearing it for first time on news illustrates the mess

You said yourself you are mixing without distancing at your boot camp so you acknowledge you are being complacent

 

Edited 2 August, 2020 by whelk

[egg]

4 minutes ago, whelk said:

Not sure I have lost my way. I am intrigued how and where people are passing it on.

The messaging from government is a joke. Lost all credibility with me. Understand reacting to changing events isn’t easy but no one really understands the guidance now. PHE execs hearing it for first time on news illustrates the mess

You said yourself you are mixing without distancing at your boot camp so you acknowledge you are being complacent

 

You confuse what I'm doing. I'm being careful, maintaining distancing where I can. I cannot, however, control what other people do. It's like driving to an extent - I take care but I can't control other how others drive, but I can't stay off the roads because someone may drive like a dick and crash into me.

Covid hasn't gone anywhere. We live amongst it. Life goes on, it has to, but I don't act as if it's gone away and/or that'll I'll probably be OK if I catch it. 

The sad fact is that many people are complacent a) about teh chances of catching it and b) what it may do to them if they are unfortunate enough to catch it. The "few people die of it" attitude on this thread says it all. 

[Lord Duckhunter]

32 minutes ago, egg said:

 

Covid hasn't gone anywhere. We live amongst it. Life goes on, it has to, but I don't act as if it's gone away and/or that'll I'll probably be OK if I catch it. 

The sad fact is that many people are complacent a) about teh chances of catching it and b) what it may do to them if they are unfortunate enough to catch it. The "few people die of it" attitude on this thread says it all. 

9 people in the whole of Dorset tested positive last week, 9!!! And that’s not, became very  ill of it, or were hospitalised by it, or god forbid, died from it. Just tested positive. That’s after all the mass beach gatherings, the opening up of shops & pubs  and everyone under 25 pretty much giving up on social distancing. It may live amongst us, but it’s not really much of a risk at the moment. 

Edited 2 August, 2020 by Lord Duckhunter

[egg]

6 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

9 people in the whole of Dorset tested positive last week, 9!!! And that’s not, became very  ill of it, or were hospitalised by it, or god forbid, died from it. Just tested positive. That’s after all the mass beach gatherings, the opening up of shops & pubs  and everyone under 25 pretty much giving up on social distancing. It may live amongst us, but it’s not really much of a risk at the moment. 

That is encouraging. With everyone being sensible, hopefully we'll get the numbers down further. It's not all about Dorset though, the numbers are going the wrong way in certain areas. 

[whelk]

Ffs

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-over-50s-could-be-told-to-stay-at-home-to-avoid-second-nationwide-lockdown-12040780
 

 

Edited 2 August, 2020 by whelk

[RedArmy]

1 hour ago, egg said:

That is encouraging. With everyone being sensible, hopefully we'll get the numbers down further. It's not all about Dorset though, the numbers are going the wrong way in certain areas. 

We’re not allowed to talk about those certain areas though, it’s an inconvenient truth. 

[Weston Super Saint]

29 minutes ago, whelk said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-over-50s-could-be-told-to-stay-at-home-to-avoid-second-nationwide-lockdown-12040780
 

Lol.  One quote from that article :

Quote

A Sunday Times report said people aged between 50 and 70 could be given personalised risk ratings, taking into account factors such as age and medical conditions.

That'll be those usual suspects again, reducing a complex illness with a range of outcomes to the risk of dying.  That meddlesome bunch really can't be helped!

[Lord Duckhunter]

23 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Lol.  One quote from that article :

That'll be those usual suspects again, reducing a complex illness with a range of outcomes to the risk of dying.  That meddlesome bunch really can't be helped!

What’s the betting they don’t take into account their “culture” , area they live in, or colour of skin. Can you imagine the outcry if a 51 year old Muslim from Leicester has to be in lockdown but a 51 year old whitey from Penzance doesn’t. The lefties won’t want the science followed then.....

[whelk]

33 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Lol.  One quote from that article :

That'll be those usual suspects again, reducing a complex illness with a range of outcomes to the risk of dying.  That meddlesome bunch really can't be helped!

I have no idea who the usual suspects are or what they stand for.

I put people into two camps - pant pissers and the rational. Ok maybe a third of defiant twats who refuse to wear masks.

[Hockey_saint]

3 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

9 people in the whole of Dorset tested positive last week, 9!!! And that’s not, became very  ill of it, or were hospitalised by it, or god forbid, died from it. Just tested positive. That’s after all the mass beach gatherings, the opening up of shops & pubs  and everyone under 25 pretty much giving up on social distancing. It may live amongst us, but it’s not really much of a risk at the moment. 

It's not a very high figure for sure and I'm surprised it's not less as parts of Dorset really are much less populated than say Southampton or P*rtsmouth.

[ecuk268]

2 minutes ago, Hockey_saint said:

It's not a very high figure for sure and I'm surprised it's not less as parts of Dorset really are much less populated than say Southampton or P*rtsmouth.

How many people were tested?

 

[Hockey_saint]

1 minute ago, ecuk268 said:

How many people were tested?

 

Personally I know at least one who was tested twice in Dorset as he died from it would be interesting to find out the testing numbers that's for sure.

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, whelk said:

I have no idea who the usual suspects are or what they stand for.

I put people into two camps - pant pissers and the rational. Ok maybe a third of defiant twats who refuse to wear masks.

Me either, but I'm sure Shurlie will be along any minute to enlighten us with his brilliance as those were his words - it was pure coincidence that your link had the quote in it that I referenced.

[Weston Super Saint]

36 minutes ago, ecuk268 said:

How many people were tested?

 

Assuming a similar number to two weeks ago, about 4000 per week...

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18580778.coronavirus-weekly-case-rate-increases-bcp-dorset/

[ecuk268]

4 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Assuming a similar number to two weeks ago, about 4000 per week...

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18580778.coronavirus-weekly-case-rate-increases-bcp-dorset/

To draw a meaningful conclusion you would need to know the breakdown of those tested. Age, location, health, ethnicity etc.

[trousers]

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

Edited 2 August, 2020 by trousers

[CB Fry]

16 minutes ago, trousers said:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

It's difficult to not sound like Trump but it stands to reason that one of the key drivers of new cases being reported is clearly the huge increase in testing capacity and tests in totality. This is of course more to do with what was obviously gigantic under-calling of cases back at peak rather than over-calling now.

I'm unmoved by the "new cases" data until it genuinely starts to drive the real indicators - hospital admissions and then deaths. I don't actually know if these have moved in line.

I miss the daily briefings and I think they should return in some form, if only someone talking through the slides each day.

[whelk]

Downward trend in Soton area

[egg]

45 minutes ago, trousers said:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

These words:

"The potential for false-positives (those people without the disease who test positive) to drive the increase in community (Pillar 2) cases is substantial, particularly because the accuracy of the test and the detection of viable viruses within a community setting is unclear". 

Science I like. Assumptions / guess work, no. 

[egg]

2 minutes ago, whelk said:

Downward trend in Soton area

Cheers. That's encouraging. 

[Weston Super Saint]

I know it's going to come as a shock to some on here, but some Governments have manipulated their figures (lied), when it comes to reporting Covid deaths - who knew!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-53598965

Quote

The number of deaths from coronavirus in Iran is nearly triple what Iran's government claims, a BBC Persian service investigation has found.

 

[Weston Super Saint]

Meanwhile, over in Blighty, still not one single person has 'recovered' from Covid, someone more cynical than me might suggest this is a reason why our death rate figures remain high...

 

[Lighthouse]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I know it's going to come as a shock to some on here, but some Governments have manipulated their figures (lied), when it comes to reporting Covid deaths - who knew!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-53598965

 

Nothing will top China for underestimating deaths. Nothing.

[The Cat]

Less than 650 people in hospital with Covid now. 57 on ventilation. Some hospitals have 0 cases. There were 4 people in Southampton general on Friday being treated. 

[whelk]

42 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Less than 650 people in hospital with Covid now. 57 on ventilation. Some hospitals have 0 cases. There were 4 people in Southampton general on Friday being treated. 

Close the pubs immediately. Were all going to die. Look at all these murderers on the beaches

[Batman]

48 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Less than 650 people in hospital with Covid now. 57 on ventilation. Some hospitals have 0 cases. There were 4 people in Southampton general on Friday being treated. 

All very strange.  You could put on the 6pm news, see people being shamed because they are not social distancing, coupled with weeks/months of it (including protests), schools can't open and the 2nd wave is inbound...... yet here we are..

History will look upon this time and state we over-reacted and killed the economy for another generation

Edited 9 August, 2020 by Batman

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, The Cat said:

Less than 650 people in hospital with Covid now. 57 on ventilation. Some hospitals have 0 cases. There were 4 people in Southampton general on Friday being treated. 

And yet, still not one single person that has officially 'recovered' from it, not even Boris or Dom!

[Weston Super Saint]

While the rest of the world worries about social distancing and masks whilst arguing over sending kids to school for an education, Wuhan is party central!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53816511

[aintforever]

28 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

While the rest of the world worries about social distancing and masks whilst arguing over sending kids to school for an education, Wuhan is party central!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53816511

I guess that's what happens when you lock down properly and get test and tracing sorted out.

Edited 18 August, 2020 by aintforever

[Weston Super Saint]

17 minutes ago, aintforever said:

I guess that's what happens when you lock down properly and get test and tracing sorted out.

To be fair, testing and tracing is so much more effective when you don't worry about people's basic human rights

[aintforever]

23 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

To be fair, testing and tracing is so much more effective when you don't worry about people's basic human rights

And they chase people about with police speaker drones...

 

[benjii]

Globally the rate of increase of cases is as high as it’s ever been. The curve is getting steeper, not flattening. 
 

There will be an uptick again in the UK, as there will be in most countries. Until most of us have had a vaccine this shite will carry on.

[Lord Duckhunter]

9 hours ago, benjii said:

Globally the rate of increase of cases is as high as it’s ever been. The curve is getting steeper, not flattening. 
 

There will be an uptick again in the UK, as there will be in most countries. Until most of us have had a vaccine this shite will carry on.

Are deaths and hospitalisations as high as they’ve ever been? 

[Whitey Grandad]

10 hours ago, benjii said:

Globally the rate of increase of cases is as high as it’s ever been. The curve is getting steeper, not flattening. 
 

There will be an uptick again in the UK, as there will be in most countries. Until most of us have had a vaccine this shite will carry on.

“rate of increase” ?

That’s a second differential and should be treated with caution.

The more testing you do the more cases you will find.

[benjii]

2 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Are deaths and hospitalisations as high as they’ve ever been? 

The daily death numbers globally seem to be increasing. The highest daily number of deaths was in May but, having dipped slightly, seems to be heading up again.

I don't really have a point to make, other than an observation that I think the timescales we're dealing with here may be longer than people think.

Edited 20 August, 2020 by benjii

[ecuk268]

So this new health body "National Institute for Health Protection" is to be run by Dido Harding who was in charge at Talk Talk when had suffered a large data loss which ended up costing them £77m. She was also in charge of the not very good track and trace scheme. Her husband is a Tory MP who is on the board of a think tank who wanted to scrap PHE and also wants to replace the NHS with an insurance scheme. 

Hancock has assured us that the new body will be "world-renowned" obviously to go with the "world-beating" app that didn't work and the "world-beating" track and trace system.

I never liked Thatcher or her policies but when you look at the calibre of some of her ministers like Hurd, Lawson, Carrington etc, they were serious politicians. This lot are just a bunch of lightweight yes-men none of whom would have got within a mile of Thatcher's cabinet.

[Weston Super Saint]

Good news, the virus has now left Portugal alone but is currently in Croatia.

[benjii]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/matt-hancock-no-reason-not-to-go-back-to-work-coronavirus-a4528871.html

Thick as pig shite.

[aintforever]

"'little evidence' coronavirus is passed on in offices"

We all know that's because everyone is working from home, why do they come out with sh!t like this? Hancock is like the Tory gimp who get wheeled out whenever they have something embarrassingly shit to say or when Boris is on one of his many holidays. The bloke is a living, breathing example of why this country needs to sort out social mobility.

 

[whelk]

Absenteeism from sickness has plummeted in my teams since we are all working from home to less than 1%

Not the only factor but clearly not all working in open plan offices and passing  on germs has something to do with that.

[revolution saint]

1 minute ago, whelk said:

Absenteeism from sickness has plummeted in my teams since we are all working from home to less than 1%

Not the only factor but clearly not all working in open plan offices and passing  on germs has something to do with that.

Yeah, funnily enough I was doing some work on this last week.  Work for a pretty large employer and sickness has dropped to 50% of what it was pre-lockdown and the pretty much the only sickness being recorded is long term stuff.  As for Hancock - what planet is he on?  You could spend a lifetime listing the contradictions and inaccuracies of his position, although to be fair, his position will probably shift soon so there wouldn't be much point.