Coronavirus

[wadesmith]

How have you come to that conclusion?

 

Good question. I'm not medically trained, so i'm winging this. My gut feeling is that people aged say 75 with respiratory problems in the future may have less change of survival than someone of 75 with respiratory problems 3 months ago...assuming that some strain of this coronavirus is still at large. Instead of 8 out of 10 making it through to 80, maybe on 5 out of 10 make it to that age. It's just a thought. I've started googling life expectancies through the ages in the UK and I was quite shocked at the figures. We've gained 6 years since the year 1990....maybye we going lose a through of those years. I'm not saying bodies are going to be piling up on the streets in 20 years time, but I just wonder if maybe the peak of life expectancy has been reached. maybe we will see it slow down, or regress slightly.

[wadesmith]

How have you come to that conclusion?

 

Sorry I also meant to say that the aftermath of Coronavirus could well mean that people have a lower standard of living. Jobs may be scarcer. People may be more stressed/anxious. The use of alcohol could conceivably decrease. If social distancing becomes the 'new normal' people may become less mobile. All of these things could conceivably play into lower life expectancy. We've seen the stats where deprived areas of Britain have lower life expectancy...well those areas could be becoming more deprived for the forceable future.

[Whitey Grandad]

Yes, but you asked why it was essential that the NHS wear masks, then answer is simply that they need to be protected (because of the work they do), more than Dave who works in the chippy....

 

It’s the other way round. The NHS wear masks to help prevent them infecting the patients, the same way that dentists wear masks.

[shurlock]

I see Panorama painted a pretty damning picture of the government's PPE stockpiling efforts.

Edited 28 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Portugalsaint]

Yes, they did Shurlock. Pity the press can’t get behind the Government. It’s not just a UK thing, it’s a world thing. No government stockpiled.

 

Has anyone seen any news in the UK about what is happening in Brazil? The President was asked about the overwhelming number of bodies in Manuas as he refuses to see this is as anymore than a flu epidemic. His answer, laughing, “I’m not a gravedigger”. Can it get any worse?

[RedArmy]

I see Panorama painted a pretty damning picture of the government's PPE stockpiling efforts.

My favourite part was when they tried to claim it was a national scandal that 1 glove = 1 item of PPE, that really got the faux outrage mob triggered. “In normal times this would end a government”

 

All disposable are sold in totals not pairs, it’s nothing new.

[Portugalsaint]

Serious lockdown between 1-3 May to stop travel here in Portugal. If you have no good excuse for being outside your district to which you reside 720 euro fine. 4/5 we start to open, hairdressers and small shops. They expect to be fully open by 1/6 if there are no setbacks. Masks compulsory. The country is now making their own after a consignment from the big C were faulty having passed EU regs! That would be after the big C delivered respirators to the Portuguese embassy in Beijing and not the full consignment despite insisting on money up front and the destination for delivery was several thousand miles away. Appears the latest trick is to provide defective equipment insisting on money upfront. Disgraceful.

Edited 28 April, 2020 by Portugalsaint

[Portugalsaint]

My favourite part was when they tried to claim it was a national scandal that 1 glove = 1 item of PPE, that really got the faux outrage mob triggered. “In normal times this would end a government”

 

All disposable are sold in totals not pairs, it’s nothing new.

 

Try to avoid the tittle tattle of the BBC these days, their reporters are getting worse. It’s really far better to listen to what drops out of some of the political mouths, that’s then fact.

[ecuk268]

Yes, they did Shurlock. Pity the press can’t get behind the Government. It’s not just a UK thing, it’s a world thing. No government stockpiled.

 

Has anyone seen any news in the UK about what is happening in Brazil? The President was asked about the overwhelming number of bodies in Manuas as he refuses to see this is as anymore than a flu epidemic. His answer, laughing, “I’m not a gravedigger”. Can it get any worse?

 

The press don't owe the Government any favours. Their job is to hold the Government to account.

 

They were slow to take action. We even had Boris visiting hospitals and shaking hands with Covid patients. Contrast their approach with South Korea, a country with a similar population to the UK. They started testing, tracing and isolating in February and within 20 days the number of cases had peaked and was in steep decline.

 

Their number of deaths stands at just over 250 compared to our 21000 (probably a lot more if you count deaths in care homes). Their number of daily new cases is now in single figures.

 

The UK Government ignored their own 2016 pandemic exercise that concluded that we were very short of ventilation equipment and, despite the shortcoming exposed by this exercise, they did not revise or modify their contingency plans which had been shown to be inadequate.

[Plastic]

The press don't owe the Government any favours. Their job is to hold the Government to account.

 

They were slow to take action. We even had Boris visiting hospitals and shaking hands with Covid patients. Contrast their approach with South Korea, a country with a similar population to the UK. They started testing, tracing and isolating in February and within 20 days the number of cases had peaked and was in steep decline.

 

Their number of deaths stands at just over 250 compared to our 21000 (probably a lot more if you count deaths in care homes). Their number of daily new cases is now in single figures.

 

The UK Government ignored their own 2016 pandemic exercise that concluded that we were very short of ventilation equipment and, despite the shortcoming exposed by this exercise, they did not revise or modify their contingency plans which had been shown to be inadequate.

 

Exactly right, they ignored clear advice. In normal times no one would have noticed, but these are not normal times and they must be held to account for their decision at some point in the future. Now is not really the time, as it distracts effort from the current crisis, however that wont stop journos looking for a scoop.

[Winnersaint]

It’s the other way round. The NHS wear masks to help prevent them infecting the patients, the same way that dentists wear masks.

 

This was made very clear to us at my wife's outpatients appointment last week.

[CB Fry]

My favourite part was when they tried to claim it was a national scandal that 1 glove = 1 item of PPE, that really got the faux outrage mob triggered. “In normal times this would end a government” [emoji38]

 

All disposable are sold in totals not pairs, it’s nothing new.

It's odd they made such a thing of that: I'm no expert but latex gloves like that come in boxes like tissue boxes right? They're not all nicely paired up like they would be in the clothing section of a garden centre.

[RedArmy]

It's odd they made such a thing of that: I'm no expert but latex gloves like that come in boxes like tissue boxes right? They're not all nicely paired up like they would be in the clothing section of a garden centre.

Yeah you buy a box of 100, not 50 pairs. Unless they were expecting them to list 1 box as 1 item of PPE which is ludicrous.

[Weston Super Saint]

It’s the other way round. The NHS wear masks to help prevent them infecting the patients, the same way that dentists wear masks.

 

What are they infecting the patients with - if they have symptoms, they isolate and don't come into contact with patients!

 

You'd better have a word with Intisar Chowdhury as he seems pretty convinced it's the other way round....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52453520

[Matthew Le God]

What are they infecting the patients with - if they have symptoms, they isolate and don't come into contact with patients!

 

You can have the disease without symptoms and pass it on to others.

[Whitey Grandad]

What are they infecting the patients with - if they have symptoms, they isolate and don't come into contact with patients!

 

You'd better have a word with Intisar Chowdhury as he seems pretty convinced it's the other way round....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52453520

 

No, you still don’t understand.

 

You are only considering the transmission of Covid-19. Medical staff wear masks to help prevent passing an infection of any sort to patients. They have been wearing them for decades, long before this new virus appeared. So let’s at least understand that wearing a mask helps to prevent transmission to a patient.

 

Now let’s come to the present epidemic. If wearing a mask reduces the chances of the wearer passing on an infection then in a pandemic where large numbers of the public are likely to be infectious the universal wearing of masks in public will reduce the transmission of the virus. This is why many countries are seeking to make the wearing of masks compulsory when relaxing lockdown.

 

In Mr. Chowdhury’s case I think you are confusing PPE with surgical masks.

[CB Fry]

No totty at today’s briefing either.

Back in business today. Absolute fox.

[shurlock]

It’s the other way round. The NHS wear masks to help prevent them infecting the patients, the same way that dentists wear masks.

 

It’s both. Bog standard surgical masks help prevent healthcare workers infecting patients. Stronger N95 or N99 masks also give healthcare workers protection from infected patients.

 

As you say, given the way surgical masks work, everyone needs to be wearing them to be effective. The community response is only as good as the weakest link.

Edited 28 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Lord Duckhunter]

I’d have thought it’s both. Otherwise why would nurses treating Covid patients wear masks. They can’t infect an already infected person, so the mask must be to protect them. Or am I missing something here?

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[CB Fry]

Total deaths (all locations) graph now looking like the UK striking out on own vs France/Spain/Italy.

 

This is literally the truth catching up with the government.

[shurlock]

Total deaths (all locations) graph now looking like the UK striking out on own vs France/Spain/Italy.

 

This is literally the truth catching up with the government.

 

Yep it seems that way. Doubtless someone will harp on about cross-country differences in reporting and data collection. But the numbers we’re seeing are simply too big for that to be the only explanation.

Edited 28 April, 2020 by shurlock

[RedArmy]

Clearly masks work to keep the wearer safe or NHS and care staff would be dying at a faster rate than the general public, which isn’t happening.

[shurlock]

Clearly masks work to keep the wearer safe or NHS and care staff would be dying at a faster rate than the general public, which isn’t happening.

 

Some masks do; some don’t. It depends what type of mask healthcare workers are kitted out with. Clearly those who are coming into close contact with covid patients will be wearing masks that protect them against infection i.e. NOT surgical masks. By contrast the masks that are recommended for the public (and general medical practice) are aimed at preventing the mask-wearer from infecting others in which case everyone needs to wear a mask for them to be truly effective.

Edited 28 April, 2020 by shurlock

[RedArmy]

Hancock yesterday “We don’t see the questions beforehand”

Hancock today just so happens to have all of the stats ready on the right page in front of him and reads from it to answer a question about the North East.

 

But they definitely don’t have an idea of the questions they’re going to get.

[whelk]

Total deaths (all locations) graph now looking like the UK striking out on own vs France/Spain/Italy.

 

This is literally the truth catching up with the government.

 

So UK roughly less than 1% of world population 67m/7.5bn+ yet we make up over 10% Covid deaths circa. 200k?

Obviously we have more sophisticated reporting but

[Weston Super Saint]

Those pesky Germans with their well thought out plan to test and trace the virus leading to a far lower death count than us.

 

Virus trumps Germans

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52282844

[Weston Super Saint]

So UK roughly less than 1% of world population 67m/7.5bn+ yet we make up over 10% Covid deaths circa. 200k?

Obviously we have more sophisticated reporting but

 

Clearly we're a nation of fat, lazy ****ers susceptible to lung infections.

[The Cat]

Virus trumps Germans

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52282844

 

Haha.

 

2 World Wars, 1 World Cup and the Continental Coronavirus Champions.

[Portugalsaint]

The press hold the UK government to account....really, I can’t think for the life of me that I ever voted for Kuennsberg or Peston. God help those who think the repetitive questions get them anywhere. It’s the chattering classes re emerging. The French are way in front and so are the Spanish with deaths, homes and those at home not included in their figures either.

[Weston Super Saint]

The press hold the UK government to account....really, I can’t think for the life of me that I ever voted for Kuennsberg or Peston. God help those who think the repetitive questions get them anywhere. It’s the chattering classes re emerging. The French are way in front and so are the Spanish with deaths, homes and those at home not included in their figures either.

 

Not sure there's any better quality journalism out there than this!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52464885

 

A submarine captain who allowed his crew to hold a barbeque party during the Covid-19 lockdown has been sacked.

 

Cdr Lewis will remain in the Royal Navy but will be assigned another role.

 

So not 'sacked' at all, merely moved to 'another department'!

[aintforever]

Clearly we're a nation of fat, lazy ****ers susceptible to lung infections.

 

Who were holding football matches, rock concerts and packing out pubs across the country when we should have been socially distancing.

[LGTL]

Hancock yesterday “We don’t see the questions beforehand”

Hancock today just so happens to have all of the stats ready on the right page in front of him and reads from it to answer a question about the North East.

 

But they definitely don’t have an idea of the questions they’re going to get.

 

Think it’s just the public’s questions that they don’t see (which is a pointless exercise can I add). They know the journalists questions beforehand.

[Fan The Flames]

No, you still don’t understand.

 

You are only considering the transmission of Covid-19. Medical staff wear masks to help prevent passing an infection of any sort to patients. They have been wearing them for decades, long before this new virus appeared. So let’s at least understand that wearing a mask helps to prevent transmission to a patient.

 

Now let’s come to the present epidemic. If wearing a mask reduces the chances of the wearer passing on an infection then in a pandemic where large numbers of the public are likely to be infectious the universal wearing of masks in public will reduce the transmission of the virus. This is why many countries are seeking to make the wearing of masks compulsory when relaxing lockdown.

 

In Mr. Chowdhury’s case I think you are confusing PPE with surgical masks.

 

Most medical staff in normal times do not wear masks, masks are worn in theatres to protect patients with open wounds and healthcare staff from the patients body fluids potentially infecting them. There are studies that show that wearing masks may not be an important factor in the amount of wound infections, buy anyway they are worn in these settings. Dentists wear them because of the close proximity of their work and because it allows them to talk to the dental nurse and remain looking into the patients mouth. Most other departments won't wear masks as there are no open wounds so the risk (and outcome) is low. We don't normally seek to protect infecting each other with colds and flu and because we have vaccines for other airborne diseases like mumps and measles. So I think it is easy to overstate the usefulness of masks in normal times.

 

In covid times medical staff are wearing masks to protect themselves mainly, but it will have the benefit of protecting other people as well, as medical staff may be pre-symptomatic and infectious. The type of mask used is related to their activity; nurses of covid wards will wear face shields and medical masks (FFP3 type) and so will anyone doing a aersol generating activity like cpr regardless if the patient is positive or not, whilst nursing staff in other departments like outpatients or x-ray will wear the less protective surgical masks.

 

It would seem logical that wearing masks in covid times in public would be beneficial but the science is still split. It is believed that asymptomatic transmission is negligible so that can be ignored, but it will protect against pre-symptomatic transmission. This has to be weighed up against the increase in self infecting by touching your face more when wearing a mask (masks are uncomfortable and wearers adjust then a lot, remove them when no one is around and put back on when people appear) and from taking them off incorrectly.

 

The window where people are pre-symptomatic and infectious is relatively short and the scientist believe the risk from this is equal to the risks of self infection from mask wearing. This doesn't seem to add up to me but they say the benefit is small enough not to warrant the wearing of them. The WHO advise against masks because they don't want masks destined for medical staff in poor countries to be diverted to rich countries shoppers and dog walkers. So maybe the benefit of wearing a mask against self infection is greater then stated but still less (on a world wide scale) than depriving poor countries medical staff, hence The WHO's position.

 

So maybe countries are breaking ranks with The WHO position for their own local reasons and ignoring the world wide benefits. Or maybe it's a perception thing, because by asking people to wear a mask when coming out of lockdown might signal that there is a fight still to be won and this increases compliance with other measures like social distancing and hand washing. There is a belief that one of the reasons why a lot of Americans don't agree with the stay home rules is because they weren't asked to wear a mask in public, in a 'can it really be as bad as they are making out' way.

 

As for your last point I don't understand because surgical masks are PPE.

[Weston Super Saint]

 

The window where people are pre-symptomatic and infectious is relatively short and the scientist believe the risk from this is equal to the risks of self infection from mask wearing. This doesn't seem to add up to me but they say the benefit is small enough not to warrant the wearing of them. The WHO advise against masks because they don't want masks destined for medical staff in poor countries to be diverted to rich countries shoppers and dog walkers. So maybe the benefit of wearing a mask against self infection is greater then stated but still less (on a world wide scale) than depriving poor countries medical staff, hence The WHO's position.

 

 

Great post, agree with all of it except the highlighted bit. There is very little benefit of wearing a mask against 'self' infection - for the general public - if it is not done in conjunction with eye protection and rigorous anti viral hygiene, as the virus will still have a way to infect through eyes, touching etc.

 

Masks for the general public should only be for stopping them infecting others, but again, that depends on the mask material and fit. Badly fitting and the virus will escape around the edges, porous material - like wrapping a woolen scarf around the face - and the virus will get through with a cough or sneeze!

[Batman]

Not sure there's any better quality journalism out there than this!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52464885

 

 

 

 

 

So not 'sacked' at all, merely moved to 'another department'!

 

He has been 'sacked' from his role as skipper of a Nuclear Submarine (and loss of additional money that would bring). This could well be the end of the road for him in the Royal Navy.

[Whitey Grandad]

Most medical staff in normal times do not wear masks, masks are worn in theatres to protect patients with open wounds and healthcare staff from the patients body fluids potentially infecting them. There are studies that show that wearing masks may not be an important factor in the amount of wound infections, buy anyway they are worn in these settings. Dentists wear them because of the close proximity of their work and because it allows them to talk to the dental nurse and remain looking into the patients mouth. Most other departments won't wear masks as there are no open wounds so the risk (and outcome) is low. We don't normally seek to protect infecting each other with colds and flu and because we have vaccines for other airborne diseases like mumps and measles. So I think it is easy to overstate the usefulness of masks in normal times.

 

In covid times medical staff are wearing masks to protect themselves mainly, but it will have the benefit of protecting other people as well, as medical staff may be pre-symptomatic and infectious. The type of mask used is related to their activity; nurses of covid wards will wear face shields and medical masks (FFP3 type) and so will anyone doing a aersol generating activity like cpr regardless if the patient is positive or not, whilst nursing staff in other departments like outpatients or x-ray will wear the less protective surgical masks.

 

It would seem logical that wearing masks in covid times in public would be beneficial but the science is still split. It is believed that asymptomatic transmission is negligible so that can be ignored, but it will protect against pre-symptomatic transmission. This has to be weighed up against the increase in self infecting by touching your face more when wearing a mask (masks are uncomfortable and wearers adjust then a lot, remove them when no one is around and put back on when people appear) and from taking them off incorrectly.

 

The window where people are pre-symptomatic and infectious is relatively short and the scientist believe the risk from this is equal to the risks of self infection from mask wearing. This doesn't seem to add up to me but they say the benefit is small enough not to warrant the wearing of them. The WHO advise against masks because they don't want masks destined for medical staff in poor countries to be diverted to rich countries shoppers and dog walkers. So maybe the benefit of wearing a mask against self infection is greater then stated but still less (on a world wide scale) than depriving poor countries medical staff, hence The WHO's position.

 

So maybe countries are breaking ranks with The WHO position for their own local reasons and ignoring the world wide benefits. Or maybe it's a perception thing, because by asking people to wear a mask when coming out of lockdown might signal that there is a fight still to be won and this increases compliance with other measures like social distancing and hand washing. There is a belief that one of the reasons why a lot of Americans don't agree with the stay home rules is because they weren't asked to wear a mask in public, in a 'can it really be as bad as they are making out' way.

 

As for your last point I don't understand because surgical masks are PPE.

Thanks for the clarification.

 

My last point was just that masks come in different forms. The basic ones that a dentist would wear to protect the patient are not as effective as those used for self-protection.

[whelk]

Back in business today. Absolute fox.

 

Yvonne Doyle today. Could be Rob Bryden’s mum.

[CB Fry]

I had to go into my place of work today, only the second time in six weeks. So lucky me I got to wear a face mask for the first time. Fair to say I don't think I have ever touched my face more, spent the whole time with glasses steamed up and uncomfortable to the point of feeling utterly counterproductive. And I was only in the office for a task that took 90 mins or so that I couldn't do from home. The poor buggers in the office/plant every day are wearing them all day.

 

For the marginal gain the experts say they deliver, I remain unconvinced it is a sustainable solution for the general public.

[RedArmy]

If your glasses were steaming up you weren’t wearing the mask correctly, and likely had very limited protection.

[CB Fry]

If your glasses were steaming up you weren’t wearing the mask correctly, and likely had very limited protection.

Which is kind of my point. I was wearing it because I had too and it was dished out as I went through our reception. But no guidance on how to put it on etc.

 

When I've been in the supermarket I see people walking around with filthy looking ones, clearly re-wearing the same one over and over.

 

I just think the government have it about right on this. I think the negligible benefits of masks are likely outweighed by the level of effective application causingmore harm than good. I just don't think people will wear them correctly (like me) and at the same time then walk around like they are invincible because they have one on.

 

Needless to say, once Asda can get consistent stock levels to make a few quid on, they'll be everywhere whatever the government say.

[Weston Super Saint]

Does Trump have anything to do with Cadiz?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52471208

 

Zahara de los Atunes, near Cadiz, used tractors to spray more than 2km (1.2 miles) of beach with a bleach solution

[Portugalsaint]

Yep it seems that way. Doubtless someone will harp on about cross-country differences in reporting and data collection. But the numbers we’re seeing are simply too big for that to be the only explanation.

 

Yep Sherlock, that’s me. Spain don’t include other deaths. Not sure about France and I believe Germany haven’t either. Only the UK who as,per usual like to go the extra mile and report everything.

[shurlock]

Yep Sherlock, that’s me. Spain don’t include other deaths. Not sure about France and I believe Germany haven’t either. Only the UK who as,per usual like to go the extra mile and report everything.

 

Are you sure about that pal?

[badgerx16]

I find it strange that some people in supermarkets wear latex gloves but no mask.

[aintforever]

Which is kind of my point. I was wearing it because I had too and it was dished out as I went through our reception. But no guidance on how to put it on etc.

 

When I've been in the supermarket I see people walking around with filthy looking ones, clearly re-wearing the same one over and over.

 

I just think the government have it about right on this. I think the negligible benefits of masks are likely outweighed by the level of effective application causingmore harm than good. I just don't think people will wear them correctly (like me) and at the same time then walk around like they are invincible because they have one on.

 

Needless to say, once Asda can get consistent stock levels to make a few quid on, they'll be everywhere whatever the government say.

 

I found them pretty straight forward to use to be honest, and whilst it is on you cannot touch your mouth or pick you nose etc so they must cut down transmissions there as well.

 

I expect the only reason we are not being advised to wear them is because there are not enough of them to go around.

[Lighthouse]

Does Trump have anything to do with Cadiz?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52471208

 

I struggle to see how anyone thought that was anything other than completely mental. Aside from not giving the tiniest f**k about the massive environmental impact, if that bleach is effective enough to kill the virus, it’s effective enough to make any beach goers seriously ill.

[shurlock]

I struggle to see how anyone thought that was anything other than completely mental. Aside from not giving the tiniest f**k about the massive environmental impact, if that bleach is effective enough to kill the virus, it’s effective enough to make any beach goers seriously ill.

 

It goes without saying that it’s not quite the same as shooting up bleach or detergent...

Edited 30 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

It goes without saying that it’s not quite the same as shooting up bleach or detergent...

 

It is for the local eco system on the beach.

[Plastic]

It was an idiotic thing to do, mainly because it’s so ineffective, but won’t be harmful long term.

Bleach is very unstable in sunlight, and breaks down after just hours into water and salt.

Not good for the upper layers of microbial life, but they will recover very quickly.

[Guided Missile]

I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news, which is sensational and not very good. This Covid-19 outbreak is akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. We had 8000 deaths last year in the ‘at risk’ groups (i.e. over 65's, people with heart disease etc.). I do not feel this current Covid-19 strain will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!