Coronavirus

[RedArmy]

Oh dear.

 

Seriously pal, take a break. It doesn't help you or anyone when you're so clueless about basic concepts. You mentioned the transmission rate and then proceed to discuss something else entirely. Either way its not expressed as a %. Estimates suggest that its ranged from 2-3, though the hope is that it's now below 1 thanks to the lockdown.

The Yanks reckon it could be as high as 5.8.

 

Christ knows what that would be as a percentage

[shurlock]

According to Imperial’s Ferguson he puts infectivity at 2.6 and possibly as high as 3.5

 

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

 

That'll be £1.50 please

 

Well done you accept that talking about a transmission rate of 80% is complete jibberish.

 

Take a break pal for your own good.

 

#classicwestie

Edited 19 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

Well done you accept that talking about a transmission rate of 80% is complete jibberish.

 

Take a break pal for your own good.

 

#classicwestie

 

The figure quoted was dumbed down on the BBC - presumably so that dinlos like you could understand it

[shurlock]

The figure quoted was dumbed down on the BBC - presumably so that dinlos like you could understand it

 

Keep squirming pal

 

Transmisssion rate of 80% - on that classic westie, I'm checking out for the evening. Thanks for the mirth and chuckles.

[Weston Super Saint]

How are you going to stop the deaths when the virus has a transmission rate of 80%?

 

Do you lock the whole country down indefinitely until a cure / vaccine is created?

 

Can you explain your first sentence. Never seen that before regarding transmission rate as a percentage.

 

I would like to issue a formal apology for any confusion that has occured due to my inclusion of the word 'transmission'. I intended to use the word 'infection' as previously written but must have had a brain fart.

 

You seem to be forgetting that the virus is expected to infect 80% of the population. You seem to be under the impression that had the Government acted sooner then that figure would be reduced! Until a reliable, working vaccine has been developed, 80% is the stark reality.

 

80% is of course a figure that has been mooted by the Chief Medical Officer :

 

Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said that worst-case scenario planning projected that 80% of the country would contract the virus, with a 1% mortality rate. This equates to more than 500,000 deaths.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-as-many-as-10000-in-britain-may-already-have-it-says-pm

 

Please accept my sincere apologies for any confusion caused and my thanks to Doctoroncall for picking up the error.

 

I'd also like to thank Shurlock for picking the error up - oh, wait, no, he just jumped on someone else's bandwagon as usual.

[CB Fry]

Here is the Govts reposnse anyhow.

 

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

It's a thorough rebuttal, I'll give them that.

 

I'd like to see their rebuttal to the ventilators story.

[CB Fry]

How are you going to stop the deaths when the virus has a transmission rate of 80%?

 

Do you lock the whole country down indefinitely until a cure / vaccine is created?

 

 

 

I would like to issue a formal apology for any confusion that has occured due to my inclusion of the word 'transmission'. I intended to use the word 'infection' as previously written but must have had a brain fart.

 

 

 

80% is of course a figure that has been mooted by the Chief Medical Officer :

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-as-many-as-10000-in-britain-may-already-have-it-says-pm

 

Please accept my sincere apologies for any confusion caused and my thanks to Doctoroncall for picking up the error.

 

I'd also like to thank Shurlock for picking the error up - oh, wait, no, he just jumped on someone else's bandwagon as usual.

 

80% if nothing is/was done. Jesus wept.

[whelk]

Denmark has announced any companies registered in tax havens will not be eligible for state aid programmes during the pandemic.

 

The more I read about their country the more I like it. I had a great time there when we played Midtjylland. Let's face it, we should probably just all move to Denmark.

 

Bloody fit women too

[Plastic]

It's a thorough rebuttal, I'll give them that.

 

I'd like to see their rebuttal to the ventilators story.

 

Agree with this, we have both sides now.

Was unaware of the huge amount of PPE donated(?) by China, but I guess this type of message doesn’t make for a good sound bite.

Haven’t read the FT article, a link would be good if anyone can provide? Thanks.

[Lighthouse]

Bloody fit women too

 

Used to go there a fair bit for work, great country and Copenhagen is a great city. I think they’ve got the highest average happiness rating of any country in the world.

[whelk]

Used to go there a fair bit for work, great country and Copenhagen is a great city. I think they’ve got the highest average happiness rating of any country in the world.

 

I travelled round Europe in my early 20s with two Danish girls. Seriously both were like super models.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Danny Baker asked an interesting question tonight. One of the events Boris critics have complained about was the Liverpool V Madrid fixture on March 12th. If they’re right we should have seen a spike in cases in Liverpool & surrounding areas by now. There were 3,000 people coming from a virus hotspot, drinking, eating & socialising around the City.

 

Has there been one?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[warsash saint]

Danny Baker asked an interesting question tonight. One of the events Boris critics have complained about was the Liverpool V Madrid fixture on March 12th. If they’re right we should have seen a spike in cases in Liverpool & surrounding areas by now. There were 3,000 people coming from a virus hotspot, drinking, eating & socialising around the City.

 

Has there been one?

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Yeah I can imagine the 3000 Madrid fans went around hugging all the scousers … dreary me!!!

[CB Fry]

Agree with this, we have both sides now.

Was unaware of the huge amount of PPE donated(?) by China, but I guess this type of message doesn’t make for a good sound bite.

Haven’t read the FT article, a link would be good if anyone can provide? Thanks.

I don't think it was donated by China - it's just where they make that stuff. (And when I say stuff I mean China make everything). So the government being disingenuous in their rebuttal there.

 

Ventilators story here:

 

 

[Weston Super Saint]

80% if nothing is/was done. Jesus wept.

 

What do you mean by 'done', Jesus wept?

 

Do you mean treated / cured - given that there is no known cure, surely 'nothing is being done'?

 

Yes, I appreciate that the curve is being flattened, as highlighted in the link to the Guardian, but that is not the same as 'eradicating' the virus, or is it? Once the lockdown is lifted the infections will rise once more and we will start a new curve, or have we 'beaten' it now?

[CB Fry]

What do you mean by 'done', Jesus wept?

 

Do you mean treated / cured - given that there is no known cure, surely 'nothing is being done'?

 

Yes, I appreciate that the curve is being flattened, as highlighted in the link to the Guardian, but that is not the same as 'eradicating' the virus, or is it? Once the lockdown is lifted the infections will rise once more and we will start a new curve, or have we 'beaten' it now?

So just to recap you are simultaneously holding the view that the government have done/are doing everything as correctly as possible and defending everything they have done but you still think that 500,000 are going to die from Coronavirus in the UK this year.

 

Clear.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Yeah I can imagine the 3000 Madrid fans went around hugging all the scousers … dreary me!!!

 

So it only gets passed on by hugging then?

 

Not by using public transport, shops & public areas. Not by touching table surfaces in restaurants & pubs, touching door handles, sitting on benches or pressing pelican crossings etc.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Weston Super Saint]

So just to recap you are simultaneously holding the view that the government have done/are doing everything as correctly as possible and defending everything they have done but you still think that 500,000 are going to die from Coronavirus in the UK this year.

 

Clear.

 

It's not a simultaneous view, the two things are not mutually exclusive!

 

To recap, I believe that yes, the Government are doing everything that they can (within reason, I accept they could put far more stringent measures in place but that would not be a reasonable response and would affect the economy to a far greater degree) in order to FLATTEN THE CURVE of infections and therefore REDUCE THE NUMBER OF HOSPITALISATIONS at this moment in time, in order that the NHS DOES NOT BECOME OVERWHELMED, thus reducing the number of incidental deaths that could potentially be caused if the NHS cannot cope with demand.

 

At the same time I accept that MORE PEOPLE WILL DIE THAN WILL NORMALLY BE THE CASE in any given year. This is due to the potency of the virus and the affect it has on people with pre-existing medical issues and the subsequent increase in death rate.

 

I'm not convinced of the 500,000 figure but I guess time will tell whether that is correct or not. With the current assertion that people can be infected more than once with the virus, this figure could potentially increase.

[CB Fry]

It's not a simultaneous view, the two things are not mutually exclusive!

 

To recap, I believe that yes, the Government are doing everything that they can (within reason, I accept they could put far more stringent measures in place but that would not be a reasonable response and would affect the economy to a far greater degree) in order to FLATTEN THE CURVE of infections and therefore REDUCE THE NUMBER OF HOSPITALISATIONS at this moment in time, in order that the NHS DOES NOT BECOME OVERWHELMED, thus reducing the number of incidental deaths that could potentially be caused if the NHS cannot cope with demand.

 

At the same time I accept that MORE PEOPLE WILL DIE THAN WILL NORMALLY BE THE CASE in any given year. This is due to the potency of the virus and the affect it has on people with pre-existing medical issues and the subsequent increase in death rate.

 

I'm not convinced of the 500,000 figure but I guess time will tell whether that is correct or not. With the current assertion that people can be infected more than once with the virus, this figure could potentially increase.

 

Capitals and underlined words and bold fonts and everything. Well done.

 

The 80% and the 500k are linked, one creates the other and they are both created by the "do-nothing" scenario. There's no "time will tell" on it because action has been taken now, we are no longer on that trajectory and haven't been since March.

 

It's very odd how little you understand about the basics of the information that has been provided.

[Weston Super Saint]

Capitals and underlined words and bold fonts and everything. Well done.

 

The 80% and the 500k are linked, one creates the other and they are both created by the "do-nothing" scenario. There's no "time will tell" on it because action has been taken now, we are no longer on that trajectory and haven't been since March.

 

It's very odd how little you understand about the basics of the information that has been provided.

 

Do you honestly think that even with a 'flattened curve', the moment that restrictions are lifted we will all go back to normal and can celebrate victory over the virus day?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486

[egg]

Do you honestly think that even with a 'flattened curve', the moment that restrictions are lifted we will all go back to normal and can celebrate victory over the virus day?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486

 

So what do you suggest? Locking down forever? Carrying on as before and hope for the best? Or something else, if so what? It's easy to make noise, much more difficult to make sense.

[CB Fry]

Do you honestly think that even with a 'flattened curve', the moment that restrictions are lifted we will all go back to normal and can celebrate victory over the virus day?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486

I honestly think you don't understand anything about this issue.

[Weston Super Saint]

So what do you suggest? Locking down forever? Carrying on as before and hope for the best? Or something else, if so what? It's easy to make noise, much more difficult to make sense.

 

I've already stated that 'locking down forever' isn't economically viable.

 

Carrying on as before is clearly not an option as the NHS will be overwhelmed which will cause unnecessary deaths.

 

The 'something else' can only be to lift the lockdown - at a certain point which will be determined by NHS capacity and rate of infection at the time (before you ask, that's not something I can answer!). It also means being prepared to put the lockdown back in place once infections start to rise again in order to 'flatten the curve' once more.

 

That is of course in the absence of a vaccine / vaccination program, but that seems a way off yet.

 

This would then need to be combined with antibody testing to ensure 'immunity' has been achieved (see previous discussions on 'herd' / 'community' immunity which needs in the region of 60% of the population to have been infected). However, there is currently some debate regarding whether or not a person can be 're-infected' having succesfully recovered from the virus, but nothing proven either way there at the moment.

[Weston Super Saint]

I honestly think you don't understand anything about this issue.

 

Ah, yes, a bit of personal abuse is way better than answering the question isn't it!

 

Do you honestly think that even with a 'flattened curve', the moment that restrictions are lifted we will all go back to normal and can celebrate victory over the virus day?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486

[CB Fry]

Ah, yes, a bit of personal abuse is way better than answering the question isn't it!

 

Do you honestly think that even with a 'flattened curve', the moment that restrictions are lifted we will all go back to normal and can celebrate victory over the virus day?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51963486

I love the idea you think you are asking me some clever "gotcha" question, when absolutely nothing I have written on this topic could be summarised they way you have in your "do you honestly believe...." routine.

 

No, I don't "honestly believe that" because nothing I have written suggests that I think that.

 

The fact that you still think we are on course for 500k deaths (or more) shows your fundamental misunderstanding of the issue, compounded by your muddling up of the information that is available as demonstratedby yesterdays 80% humiliation.

 

You don't understand what's happening. We get it, and we are all trying to help you.

Edited 20 April, 2020 by CB Fry

[Batman]

[aintforever]

Danny Baker asked an interesting question tonight. One of the events Boris critics have complained about was the Liverpool V Madrid fixture on March 12th. If they’re right we should have seen a spike in cases in Liverpool & surrounding areas by now. There were 3,000 people coming from a virus hotspot, drinking, eating & socialising around the City.

 

Has there been one?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

From the Mail: "There were just 14 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Liverpool on Friday, March 20, but that number had jumped to 309 less than two weeks later."

 

Would a spike be that noticeable anyway? As the government hadn't bothered to ban mass gathering anywhere people would have been spreading it at Cheltenham, music gigs, night clubs and packed bars up and down the country. Plus Liverpool and Madrid fans probably travel from all over the place.

[Lord Duckhunter]

From the Mail: "There were just 14 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Liverpool on Friday, March 20, but that number had jumped to 309 less than two weeks later."

 

Would a spike be that noticeable anyway? As the government hadn't bothered to ban mass gathering anywhere people would have been spreading it at Cheltenham, music gigs, night clubs and packed bars up and down the country. Plus Liverpool and Madrid fans probably travel from all over the place.

 

When it’s all over do you think more people will have caught the virus because Cheltenham, football, festival etc continued or roughly the same amount would have caught it anyway, just at a later date.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tamesaint]

Westie on this thread reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He was the comic figure who wanted to fight - even as his limbs were being hacked off.

 

There is the aggression. (" Come back you cowards" from the Black Knight // "Dinlos," "Dullard" from Westie). There is the keenness and determination to fight ( "I'll bite you to death" from the limbless knight // the best part of 40 posts on this thread in 24 hours from Westie). The idiocy of their argument ( "I will stop you all from passing " by the knight // countless examples from Westie but the latest is the 80%/500,000 debate).

 

I am sure that there are other similarities. Perhaps the "you are just a loony" comment from Graham Chapman is one of the most apt.

Edited 20 April, 2020 by Tamesaint

[aintforever]

When it’s all over do you think more people will have caught the virus because Cheltenham, football, festival etc continued or roughly the same amount would have caught it anyway, just at a later date.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

We're all going to get it eventually, at this stage it's just about delaying as many cases as possible and keeping the curve down.

[Batman]

We're all going to get it eventually, at this stage it's just about delaying as many cases as possible and keeping the curve down.

 

Herd immunity, innit

[Weston Super Saint]

I love the idea you think you are asking me some clever "gotcha" question, when absolutely nothing I have written on this topic could be summarised they way you have in your "do you honestly believe...." routine.

 

No, I don't "honestly believe that" because nothing I have written suggests that I think that.

 

The fact that you still think we are on course for 500k deaths (or more) shows your fundamental misunderstanding of the issue, compounded by your muddling up of the information that is available as demonstratedby yesterdays 80% humiliation.

 

You don't understand what's happening. We get it, and we are all trying to help you.

 

Where exactly have I stated I believe that. Pretty sure I've said I don't believe that to be an accurate figure.

 

Thank you for finally answering the question.

[shurlock]

FFS Westie give it a rest. You misunderstood the Chief Medical Officer's statement. CB Fry correctly pulled you up on it and you've been unravelling ever since. This thread is becoming unreadable due to you.

[Plastic]

Seconded. You may enjoy being the straw man, but its spamming what was an informative thread.

[Doctoroncall]

This would then need to be combined with antibody testing to ensure 'immunity' has been achieved (see previous discussions on 'herd' / 'community' immunity which needs in the region of 60% of the population to have been infected). However, there is currently some debate regarding whether or not a person can be 're-infected' having succesfully recovered from the virus, but nothing proven either way there at the moment.

 

It remains unclear if patients have a relapse or reinfection. It could most likely be due to erroneous PCR tests since there has been a ramp up of test kit production and I’d expect limited validation of machine, primers and serology samples. It’s not a clear picture without long term data and anecdotal evidence doesn’t help.

 

With other types of SARS-CoV, immunity has been seen long term and could still neutralise the SARS virus. Animal studies have also shown production of neutralising antibodies, at least for the few weeks of the study.

 

The difficult part is knowing what protein of the virus the immune system responds, triggering the production of antibodies (which neutralise the virus). The antibody test kits need to identify the uniqueness of COVID-19 and not other Coronaviruses to lower the odds of cross reactivity and also be stable enough to mass produce it.

[CB Fry]

449 increase today which is the lowest for a good couple of weeks.

 

Strange times when 449 deaths can be seen as "good" or positive news but it does suggest that we are past this peak.

[buctootim]

449 increase today which is the lowest for a good couple of weeks.

 

Strange times when 449 deaths can be seen as "good" or positive news but it does suggest that we are past this peak.

 

Could just as likely be an outlier. The new cases are as high as they've ever been (barring one abberant day)

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[shurlock]

449 increase today which is the lowest for a good couple of weeks.

 

Strange times when 449 deaths can be seen as "good" or positive news but it does suggest that we are past this peak.

 

Yep a positive. At the same time, haven't some said there's a bit of 'seasonality' in reported hospital deaths? That Sunday and Monday tend to be lower, then you see an increase on Tuesday.

[RedArmy]

Yep a positive. At the same time, haven't some said there's a bit of 'seasonality' in reported hospital deaths? That Sunday and Monday tend to be lower, then you see an increase on Tuesday.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-20-April-2020.xlsx

 

Definitely some catching up to do tomorrow but it seems fairly clear that deaths are on the decline.

[RedArmy]

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-20-April-2020.xlsx

 

Definitely some catching up to do tomorrow but it seems fairly clear that deaths are on the decline.

Also interesting to note that 91.4% of hospital deaths in England have been people over 60 years old.

[CB Fry]

Could just as likely be an outlier. The new cases are as high as they've ever been (barring one abberant day)

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I take quite a lot of hope from the London hospital admissions data which does seem to be on decent decline and has been for a while.

Yep a positive. At the same time, haven't some said there's a bit of 'seasonality' in reported hospital deaths? That Sunday and Monday tend to be lower, then you see an increase on Tuesday.

Indeed, I imagine it will tick up again tomorrow - but Monday on Monday we are well down so feels hopeful.

[Lighthouse]

Question for the floor - if this dip in fatalities becomes genuine and sustained and you could pick one restriction to lift, what would you pick?

 

I think I’d allow shops to reopen but make masks compulsory in shopping centres like West Quay.

[shurlock]

I see US oil is now trading at negative prices for the first time on record - you can't give the stuff away.

 

Anyone got a spare shed or garage?

[Lighthouse]

I see US oil is now trading at negative prices for the first time on record - you can't give the stuff away.

 

Anyone got a spare shed or garage?

 

Still over £1.10 for a litre of unleaded last time I checked.

[The Cat]

Question for the floor - if this dip in fatalities becomes genuine and sustained and you could pick one restriction to lift, what would you pick?

 

I think I’d allow shops to reopen but make masks compulsory in shopping centres like West Quay.

 

Small businesses, so shops under a certain size, hairdressers etc. Garden centres.

 

You probably need to look at construction sites too

 

Young school children, infant age first then gradually staggering the older ages although I don't think that will happen until after half term.

[stknowle]

Small businesses, so shops under a certain size, hairdressers etc. Garden centres.

 

You probably need to look at construction sites too

 

Young school children, infant age first then gradually staggering the older ages although I don't think that will happen until after half term.

 

The thing with construction sites is that they've never been told to shut. A mistake and a fudge imho. Should've been clear and concise guidance that all non-essential building work (so emergency hospital building obviously allowed) should cease. That way a relaxation stating non essential building work could recommence would have real impact. As it is they can't even say that building work is permitted to re-commence because - at least theoretically - it has never stopped.

[saint1977]

I see Brazil’s PM has joined his fellow populist lunatic Trump in organising his brainwashed idiots to organise protests against state governors trying to limit the spread and help their health services.

 

Whatever I think of our politicians at times, it could be far worse governed by psychopaths like that

[The Cat]

The thing with construction sites is that they've never been told to shut. A mistake and a fudge imho. Should've been clear and concise guidance that all non-essential building work (so emergency hospital building obviously allowed) should cease. That way a relaxation stating non essential building work could recommence would have real impact. As it is they can't even say that building work is permitted to re-commence because - at least theoretically - it has never stopped.

 

You are correct, however quite a lot has stopped. For example the big development up by Tesco in Burseldon has had no one working in it for ages. I'm guessing it's a problem with suppliers.

 

That's the sort of thing that needs to get going again whatever the problem is.

[stknowle]

You are correct, however quite a lot has stopped. For example the big development up by Tesco in Burseldon has had no one working in it for ages. I'm guessing it's a problem with suppliers.

 

That's the sort of thing that needs to get going again whatever the problem is.

 

Tell me about it mate. I'm a long term freelancer for a developer - all our sites have been closed down and I've been stood down. No furloughing for me as I'm self employed and I fall right through the cracks in the Government's self employed assistance plan that's due to kick in, in June, so I'm ****ed.

You are correct about suppliers, also subcontractors - the majority have shut up shop. If you can't get the materials and labour you can't build regardless of whether the Government permits you to or not.

[benjii]

 

Looks like someone has been creating fake NHS profiles on Twitter to spread government propaganda / support etc.

 

Was this done by the government? By the Russians?