Coronavirus

[Weston Super Saint]

In fact the really important figure is the new cases. Statistically about 10% of them will turn into deaths. There have been another 5850 in today's figure which are supposed to reflect yesterday. The confirmed cases to tests ratio is about the same 1 in 3.5 although why there seem to be a lot of multiple tests (about 25%) isn't obvious, are people turning up to be tested time after time or are the tests that unreliable? The UK needs desperately to bring it's new cases down and that you'll not do with the laxist lockdown that you have at the moment. Perhaps it's all that the government thinks the average Joe would accept but it needs to be toughened..a lot.

 

Are the mulitiple tests due to NHS / other key worker testing - obviously a negative test last week doesn't necessarily mean they are still negative, so any sign of a temperature / cough and they are back to be re-tested....

[Window Cleaner]

Are the mulitiple tests due to NHS / other key worker testing - obviously a negative test last week doesn't necessarily mean they are still negative, so any sign of a temperature / cough and they are back to be re-tested....

 

Don't know, there seem to be an awful lot of multiple tests, over 100,000.

[Weston Super Saint]

Boris skipping 5 Cobra meetings. Who’d have thought?

 

Is it a requirement for the PM to attend each and every Cobra meeting or is it possible for Senior Ministers to hold / chair them?

[RedArmy]

Is it a requirement for the PM to attend each and every Cobra meeting or is it possible for Senior Ministers to hold / chair them?

Are you seriously trying to defend it? The man went on holiday instead of dealing with it ffs.

[Batman]

In fact the really important figure is the new cases. Statistically about 10% of them will turn into deaths. There have been another 5850 in today's figure which are supposed to reflect yesterday. The confirmed cases to tests ratio is about the same 1 in 3.5 although why there seem to be a lot of multiple tests (about 25%) isn't obvious, are people turning up to be tested time after time or are the tests that unreliable? The UK needs desperately to bring it's new cases down and that you'll not do with the laxist lockdown that you have at the moment. Perhaps it's all that the government thinks the average Joe would accept but it needs to be toughened..a lot.

 

Windows, you are in France right?

 

You must have seen that the French Carrier (Charles de Gaulle) has been hit and hit hard with Covid. about 1000+ cases (which will be close, if not the whole crew).

The vast majority are fine, around 20 in hospital with 1 requiring being in ICU (at this time)

 

I read that France are keen to use the that as a sample in their modelling for the virus in the country.

That is alongside on a national strategic asset being effectively "written off" for the time being...

[Weston Super Saint]

Are you seriously trying to defend it? The man went on holiday instead of dealing with it ffs.

 

It's not a rhetorical question, I don't know the answer. Is it a requirement that the PM attends all Cobra meetings?

 

The one in question - from the Times article - happened on the 25th of January. There wasn't a single death recorded in the whole of Europe at that time.

 

If it IS a requirement for the PM to be present and he didn't attend, then there is only one logical conclusion to be drawn...

[Batman]

It's not a rhetorical question, I don't know the answer. Is it a requirement that the PM attends all Cobra meetings?

 

The one in question - from the Times article - happened on the 25th of January. There wasn't a single death recorded in the whole of Europe at that time.

 

If it IS a requirement for the PM to be present and he didn't attend, then there is only one logical conclusion to be drawn...

 

Just said on the prezzer that it is common that COBRA meetings are led by ministers and that journalists know this to be a fact.

 

whether that is right or wrong? Another matter...

[Window Cleaner]

Windows, you are in France right?

 

You must have seen that the French Carrier (Charles de Gaulle) has been hit and hit hard with Covid. about 1000+ cases (which will be close, if not the whole crew).

The vast majority are fine, around 20 in hospital with 1 requiring being in ICU (at this time)

 

I read that France are keen to use the that as a sample in their modelling for the virus in the country.

That is alongside on a national strategic asset being effectively "written off" for the time being...

 

I've mentioned the CDG cases elsewhere. Don't know how they figure that using 1700 extremely fit young people as a model for a nation that has it's fair share of very old, very ill and very fat people can offer any significant information.

The trouble with the CDG is twofold..the indiscipline and the planes that came from a viral hotspot. Still if you expect a bunch of

20 something sailors not to hit the town, even if you tell them not to, after a couple of months in the eastern med then you're just asking for trouble really.

[Weston Super Saint]

Just said on the prezzer that it is common that COBRA meetings are led by ministers and that journalists know this to be a fact.

 

whether that is right or wrong? Another matter...

 

According to the Guardian :

 

Most Cobra meetings don’t have the prime minister attending them,” Gove said. “That is the whole point.” Cobra meetings were “led by the relevant secretary of state in the relevant area”, he argued.

 

Gove is correct in that prime ministers do not always, or even routinely, chair Cobra meetings. But it is common for them to do so during a major crisis.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/michael-gove-fails-to-deny-pm-missed-five-coronavirus-cobra-meetings

 

The WHO didn't declare a pandemic until 11th March.

[Window Cleaner]

Are you seriously trying to defend it? The man went on holiday instead of dealing with it ffs.

 

Wasn't his trip to the Caribbean somewhere around Christmas-New Year ? Think the Chinese were still denying just about everything back then.

[Weston Super Saint]

Wasn't his trip to the Caribbean somewhere around Christmas-New Year ? Think the Chinese were still denying just about everything back then.

 

He was on a 'working holiday' in the UK at the time. He was still in touch with the Government and was still being briefed and making decisions on a daily basis....

[RedArmy]

 

The one in question - from the Times article - happened on the 25th of January. There wasn't a single death recorded in the whole of Europe at that time.

Isn’t that the point? To react before deaths occur not after.

[CB Fry]

He was on a 'working holiday' in the UK at the time. He was still in touch with the Government and was still being briefed and making decisions on a daily basis....

The "working" he was doing then, as reported by some, was his biography of William Shakespeare.

[Weston Super Saint]

Isn’t that the point? To react before deaths occur not after.

 

How are you going to stop the deaths when the virus has a transmission rate of 80%?

 

Do you lock the whole country down indefinitely until a cure / vaccine is created?

[Weston Super Saint]

The "working" he was doing then, as reported by some, was his biography of William Shakespeare.

 

Was that the 'working' or the 'holiday' part of his 'working holiday'?

[CB Fry]

Was that the 'working' or the 'holiday' part of his 'working holiday'?

Well he has been given a significant advance by a publisher to write it, so on my planet that's work. He was never doing it as a fu cking hobby.

[Weston Super Saint]

Well he has been given a significant advance by a publisher to write it, so on my planet that's work. He was never doing it as a fu cking hobby.

 

Even the Prime Minister has a 'legal' right to a holiday..... He took it at a time when there was no 'pandemic', no 'emergency' in the country and was briefed by those that work for him / the Government. There are numerous things that the Prime Minister should take a beating for, but taking his legally owed holiday isn't one of them!

[whelk]

Is it a requirement for the PM to attend each and every Cobra meeting or is it possible for Senior Ministers to hold / chair them?

 

How many did Gordon Brown miss when foot and mouth broke out?

Spin doctors dream mate - they churn it out you swallow it.

[whelk]

According to the Guardian :

 

Most Cobra meetings don’t have the prime minister attending them,” Gove said. “That is the whole point.” Cobra meetings were “led by the relevant secretary of state in the relevant area”, he argued.

 

Gove is correct in that prime ministers do not always, or even routinely, chair Cobra meetings. But it is common for them to do so during a major crisis.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/michael-gove-fails-to-deny-pm-missed-five-coronavirus-cobra-meetings

 

The WHO didn't declare a pandemic until 11th March.

 

Some journo should research and publish the attendees over last 20 years, as I thought they were only held because of the severity of an emergency situation . If they show that whoever the PM they don’t necessarily attend and chair then fair enough,

[CB Fry]

Even the Prime Minister has a 'legal' right to a holiday..... He took it at a time when there was no 'pandemic', no 'emergency' in the country and was briefed by those that work for him / the Government. There are numerous things that the Prime Minister should take a beating for, but taking his legally owed holiday isn't one of them!

That's nice, dear.

[badgerx16]

How many did Gordon Brown miss when foot and mouth broke out?

Spin doctors dream mate - they churn it out you swallow it.

 

"THE chief scientific adviser under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown has said he cannot recall a Cobra meeting which was not attended by the prime minister of the time."

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18390278.michael-goves-cobra-meetings-claims-rubbished-ex-scientific-adviser/

[Weston Super Saint]

Isn’t that the point? To react before deaths occur not after.

 

How are you going to stop the deaths when the virus has a transmission rate of 80%?

 

Do you lock the whole country down indefinitely until a cure / vaccine is created?

 

So many 'experts' on here, so anyone know the answer?

 

I suspect a lot of people (even on here) will be shocked to discover that even when the lockdown is lifted, the virus will still be in existence. I imagine those same people will have a meltdown when lockdown part 2 is instigated.

[ooh it's a corner]

I've not joined this debate recently coz I can't be done with the pettiness, but I was involved with a very similar debate with some mates yesterday evening (i.e. which country's government looks to be coping the best) and one of my mates has a son in South Korea, and she was lauding the approach there, which involved lots of testing, tracking, heavy handed fines, imprisonment and in some cases deportation. They are claiming to have 10,000 positive tests and about 250 deaths.

 

So, I went for a little explore of the data.

 

Undoubtedly, South Korea reacted very quickly, and they have cited their experience of SARS in 2015 as a dress rehearsal for this main event. In 2015 they lost 38 people to SARS. We probably lose that to cycle accidents in London in a few months.....but nonetheless, this experience has given them some lessons learnt.

 

They were quick to put inbound traveller restrictions in place, so health questionnaires in the first instance, followed by tracking, followed by "thou must self-quarantine", followed by bans from Wuhan, followed by bans from China, then blanket bans for other affected countries.

 

They were also quick to forceably track positive test carriers and inbound travellers/returnees and pass law to imprison (1 year) people who broke the quarantine rules.

 

However, here are a couple of telling points.

 

UK locked down on 19th March.

South Korea locked down the entire country on 22nd March (having previously only locked down 1 territory on 20th Feb).

 

They had 2 big spikes in new cases (cases not deaths). 813 on 29th Feb and 851 on 3rd March.

 

On 19th March, their gov daily briefing notes commented;

 

"Also, 457 patients hospitalized in nursing hospitals with pneumonia of unidentified cause had diagnostic tests (Mar. 9~13) for COVID-19 with the risk of infection, and all of the patients tested (277 persons*) were negative.

* Those who didn’t undergo test (180 persons): the deceased 24, discharged/ referral 8, treatment completed 38, doctor’s opinion of no need to test (causes identified such as bacterial/aspiration pneumonia, 110 persons)"

 

So, we can conclude that out of 457 patients, of whom 24 had died at the time of going to print, not one them was counted as a corona victim. As you can see, all that was needed is "doctor's opinion".

 

I don't care whether this is right or wrong, but it is clearly a different method than is deployed elsewhere around the globe.

 

It is also entirely logically that some of those 457 patients would be included as corona victims in the UK. Thus also highlighting the testing/recording differences from one region to the next. I think this probably means that person A could be tested negative in South Korea and positive in UK - or at least recorded as being positive in UK (with or without a postive test).

 

Here are some other notes from the South Korean gov from 26th March;

"The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters discussed ways to strengthen infection control for caregivers, known as a blind spot for infection control, in nursing hospitals and to support nursing hospitals to better manage their infection by themselves.

In order to address the lack of masks for caregivers, masks were additionally secured in consultation with the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, and started to be distributed to nursing hospitals through Korean Hospital Association (Mar. 24~ approximately 38,000 masks/day)."

 

From 29th March

 

"In preparation for the prolonged COVID-19 responses, it is necessary to plan ahead so that personal hygiene and social distancing can be continuously practiced at a level consistent with everyday life.

 

"Daily infection prevention" aims to curb the number of COVID-19 patients to a level that our hospitals and medical staff can endure until the COVID-19 pandemic is over with the development of vaccines and cures."

 

From 4th April

 

Extending Intensive "Social Distancing" for Another 2 Weeks

- Inevitable to continue an intensive social distancing campaign amid still dire situation

 

From 5th April

 

Also, infection control products such as protective coveralls, N95 masks, goggles are to be stockpiled in consideration of demand* and stably provided by producing them domestically.

* To purchase 2 million protective coveralls per month (~ June); and purchase 500,000 to 1 million per month since June

 

From 8th April

 

4. Stricter inspections on facilities (clubs, etc) with risk of group transmission

 

From this week, the existing inspection will be further strengthened from inspection of sanitation officers to a joint inspection with police officers and consumer food sanitation supervisors involved. Also, the government plans to focus its inspections on nightclubs, entertainment bars, dance clubs between 11 pm and 4 am on Fridays and Saturdays.

 

 

Reading these daily summaries, they do not tell a tale of a country completely in control, only dealing with the 18 new cases that they reported yesterday - nothing to worry about in South Korea.

 

They read like a stretched health-service, a completely forgotten care system, and a country that is still in lockdown (they are talking about the possibility of opening their schools in early May). The language is as realistic as that used by politicians in the UK.

 

And terrifyingly, it would seem from the last set of statements, that nightclubs and bars are still opening.

 

We should be screaming at them "shut up shop".

 

Have a read yourself, this is the 8th April report.

https://www.mohw.go.kr/eng/nw/nw0101vw.jsp?PAR_MENU_ID=1007&MENU_ID=100701&page=1&CONT_SEQ=353989

 

Bearing in mind South Korea's "peak" was at the end of Feb/beginning of March, the reports do not read like they are expecting to come out soon.

 

The world is in a right royal mess. I don't believe there is a government out there, sitting in an ivory tower, looking down their nose at the rest of civilisation.

 

Yes, our government could have done more. So, could China, so could South Korea, so could the WHO, so could Richard Branson.

 

So what?

 

Of course we have to hold our leaders to account and I am sure they will be, just not today.

Edited 19 April, 2020 by ooh it's a corner

[RedArmy]

The world is in a right royal mess. I don't believe there is a government out there, sitting in an ivory tower, looking down their nose at the rest of civilisation.

New Zealand are probably feeling pretty good about themselves.

 

We could have taken a similar route, it’s one of the benefits of being an island nation.

[Tamesaint]

There are numerous things that the Prime Minister should take a beating for

 

Really? Do you really think so?

 

Please divulge.

[The Cat]

Interesting that 3 of the countries who seemed to have dealt with this best have female leaders. New Zealand, Denmark and Germany.

 

Maybe we should have kept Theresa May!

[ooh it's a corner]

New Zealand are probably feeling pretty good about themselves.

 

We could have taken a similar route, it’s one of the benefits of being an island nation.

 

5 million people in a space 10 percent bigger than the UK and certainly not acting as a major transport hub. Add-in the ethnic diversity here (how do you stop an Italian/Indian/Frenchman travelling home to the UK), it was probably a bit easier to control.

 

But, I take the point, there are countries who are nowhere near as badly affected as the UK.

 

But we will only be able to judge performance once everyone has gone through a 12-24 month period.

Edited 19 April, 2020 by ooh it's a corner

[shurlock]

Interesting that 3 of the countries who seemed to have dealt with this best have female leaders. New Zealand, Denmark and Germany.

 

Maybe we should have kept Theresa May!

 

You’re forgetting Taiwan. They’ve ‘played a blinder’, especially given the close travel and business links to China.

[ooh it's a corner]

duplicate....

[Weston Super Saint]

 

 

UK locked down on 19th March.

South Korea locked down the entire country on 22nd March (having previously only locked down 1 territory on 20th Feb).

 

They had 2 big spikes in new cases (cases not deaths). 813 on 29th Feb and 851 on 3rd March.

 

Nice post, very informative.

 

Interesting to note the timeline. They seem to have reacted at the beginning of March following their spike at the end of Feb. Being a lot closer to China than we are, it certainly seems strange that the Times and some of our lot are calling for the Prime Minister's head regarding a meeting on the 24th of January and not locking the country down any sooner!

 

Also interesting to note that they are saying PPE should be stockpiled (on the 5th of April) but our lot are expecting the UK Government to have been soothsayers and to have sorted this on the 24th Jan and the following five weeks!

[Weston Super Saint]

Really? Do you really think so?

 

Please divulge.

 

Of course I do - every PM in history has screwed up in some way shape or form, certainly enough to take a good mauling.

 

This isn't the thread to discuss it though.

[Weston Super Saint]

You’re forgetting Taiwan. They’ve ‘played a blinder’, especially given the close travel and business links to China.

 

ooopppsss, somebody forgot the script....

 

Daily new cases :

 

April 11 = 3

April 12 = 3

April 13 = 5

April 15 = 2

April 18 = 3

April 19 = massive jump to 22!

 

Not sure what happened to April 14, 16 & 17 though.

 

Data taken from here : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/

 

Who knows, maybe the April 19 figure will be adjusted by tomorrow

[RedArmy]

Add-in the ethnic diversity here (how do you stop an Italian/Indian/Frenchman travelling home to the UK)' date='.[/quote']

You don’t, you quarantine them when they get here and test them before release.

[shurlock]

ooopppsss, somebody forgot the script....

 

Daily new cases :

 

April 11 = 3

April 12 = 3

April 13 = 5

April 15 = 2

April 18 = 3

April 19 = massive jump to 22!

 

Not sure what happened to April 14, 16 & 17 though.

 

Data taken from here : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/

 

Who knows, maybe the April 19 figure will be adjusted by tomorrow

 

What script?

 

Stop trying so hard, you’re just making yourself look silly again, little Westie. FWIW the jump (tiny in absolute terms) was accounted for by a navy ship issue, so hopefully will have limited community transmission. Either way, the authorities continue to aggressively test and trace people.

 

Remind me what the total number of cases (imported vs. local) and deaths is in Taiwan again?

 

Actually don’t bother as it will only embarrass you. Excuse me if I just listen to the experts who point to Taiwan as an exemplar of good practice rather than some bumpkin on a football forum with a comprehension problem.

Edited 19 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

Stop trying so hard, you’re just making look even more stupid, little Westie. Remind me what the total number of cases is (imported vs. local) and deaths is again.

 

In the meantime, I’ll listen to the experts who’ve held up Taiwan as an exemplar or good practice.

 

 

Commuters pictured on April 8th in Taipei.

 

Seems like exemplary practice....

[Tamesaint]

Of course I do - every PM in history has screwed up in some way shape or form, certainly enough to take a good mauling.

 

This isn't the thread to discuss it though.

 

Why not?

 

I would love to know what Johnson would have to do to "screw up" in your eyes? Has his handling of covid done everything to cause you to criticise him ?

[ooh it's a corner]

Nice post, very informative.

 

Interesting to note the timeline. They seem to have reacted at the beginning of March following their spike at the end of Feb. Being a lot closer to China than we are, it certainly seems strange that the Times and some of our lot are calling for the Prime Minister's head regarding a meeting on the 24th of January and not locking the country down any sooner!

 

Also interesting to note that they are saying PPE should be stockpiled (on the 5th of April) but our lot are expecting the UK Government to have been soothsayers and to have sorted this on the 24th Jan and the following five weeks!

 

Yes, it is too easy to try to score political points, or sensationalist points (in order to sell your newspaper).

 

The media really do need a kick. They are either failing to ask the difficult questions, of government, of business leaders, of Bill Gates, or they are spouting sensationalist rubbish.

[The Cat]

Denmark has announced any companies registered in tax havens will not be eligible for state aid programmes during the pandemic.

 

The more I read about their country the more I like it. I had a great time there when we played Midtjylland. Let's face it, we should probably just all move to Denmark.

[Batman]

[Weston Super Saint]

I'll be honest, I switched off part way through your times article dissection but I get the impression that you think you know better. Deluded.

 

Mate, we're going around in circles. I agree with the message in the Times article. Our government have had a shocker. They could and should have acted quicker and more decisively. The warnings were there - ie they were forewarned. Highlighting their foreseeable failings is anything but hindsight. If you think they've done well and had no notice or warning that could (and should) have led to a better outcome then we disagree.

 

You're very welcome

 

Odd that one of the very first words that Maajid uses in that clip is 'hindsight'....

 

[Doctoroncall]

How are you going to stop the deaths when the virus has a transmission rate of 80%?

 

Do you lock the whole country down indefinitely until a cure / vaccine is created?

 

Can you explain your first sentence. Never seen that before regarding transmission rate as a percentage.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Many more programmes like “One World together” & I’m breaking the lockdown. Anyone feeling alone & suicidal won’t be helped by watching that dirge.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

Can you explain your first sentence. Never seen that before regarding transmission rate as a percentage.

 

Don't you know you're dealing with a leading epidemiologist - he's already debunked Taiwan's widely praised approach and record by pulling some random photos off the web. I'm sure he can enlighten you on transmission rates. If you're lucky he might even serve you up a 99 Flake too.

 

#classicwestie

[Lord Duckhunter]

Has anyone posted the Government’s detailed reply to allegations? I can’t be arsed to look back, so apologies if someone has already.

 

 

http:// https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Weston Super Saint]

Can you explain your first sentence. Never seen that before regarding transmission rate as a percentage.

 

It's been on this thread for many weeks - I originally saw it on the BBC website on one of their 'live' news feeds. The claim was quite clear that 4 out of 5 people will contract the virus in the absence of a vaccine.

 

I've not seen it debunked anywhere, but I don't have a link to the quote as it was on a live feed. I believe it was also repeated in a daily update speech.

[shurlock]

It's been on this thread for many weeks - I originally saw it on the BBC website on one of their 'live' news feeds. The claim was quite clear that 4 out of 5 people will contract the virus in the absence of a vaccine.

 

I've not seen it debunked anywhere, but I don't have a link to the quote as it was on a live feed. I believe it was also repeated in a daily update speech.

 

Oh dear.

 

Seriously pal, take a break. It doesn't help you or anyone when you're so clueless about basic concepts. You mentioned the transmission rate and then proceed to discuss something else entirely. Either way its not expressed as a %. Estimates suggest that its ranged from 2-3 (even higher), though the hope is that it's now below 1 thanks to the lockdown.

Edited 19 April, 2020 by shurlock

[CB Fry]

So you catch Covid-19 through over-working now? Going with that angle weakens his little rant quite early on.

 

A lot of The Sunday Times article is all about a lack of preparedness for pandemics in general so all the WHO-bashing guff not really that relevant.

 

Although the ST investigation is a good piece of work, I would say yesterday's Financial Times report on the utter sh itshow that was the government's ventilator strategy is a much more damning piece and much more indicative of the toxic behaviours in action in our current leadership. There will be plenty on that in the public inquiry.

[Weston Super Saint]

Has anyone posted the Government’s detailed reply to allegations? I can’t be arsed to look back, so apologies if someone has already.

 

 

http:// https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Well, they would say that wouldn't they.

 

They were forewarned, so these are clearly foreseeable failings! The whole bally lot of them should be shot!

[Batman]

So you catch Covid-19 through over-working now? Going with that angle weakens his little rant quite early on.

 

A lot of The Sunday Times article is all about a lack of preparedness for pandemics in general so all the WHO-bashing guff not really that relevant.

 

Although the ST investigation is a good piece of work, I would say yesterday's Financial Times report on the utter sh itshow that was the government's ventilator strategy is a much more damning piece and much more indicative of the toxic behaviours in action in our current leadership. There will be plenty on that in the public inquiry.

Here is the Govts reposnse anyhow.

 

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

[Weston Super Saint]

Oh dear.

 

Seriously pal, take a break. It doesn't help you or anyone when you're so clueless about basic concepts. You mentioned the transmission rate. Is it below 1, above 1, above 2 or 3?

 

According to Imperial’s Ferguson he puts infectivity at 2.6 and possibly as high as 3.5

 

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

 

That'll be £1.50 please