Coronavirus

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

Weirdly, it’s the people obsessively posting these articles every day who are also telling everyone else how scared we are.

I think it’s more pointing out the hysteria and scaremongering in the media rather than absolutely bricking it like some of you are.
 

BTW mrs Turkish has had omicron, she’s been “ill” for a couple of days, “ill” being a slightly headache and a bit of tiredness, she had a negative lateral flow this morning but still has to isolate until Wednesday despite being absolutely fine now FFS

[Plastic]

I feel fucking awful. Been coughing my guts up since Boxing Day. LFT’s have all been negative but I went for a PCR yesterday cause I have all the symptoms, so we’ll see.

If it’s not covid, they should prioritise making a vaccine for whatever it is I have cause it’s shit 😀

[Fan The Flames]

26 minutes ago, Turkish said:

I think it’s more pointing out the hysteria and scaremongering in the media rather than absolutely bricking it like some of you are.
 

BTW mrs Turkish has had omicron, she’s been “ill” for a couple of days, “ill” being a slightly headache and a bit of tiredness, she had a negative lateral flow this morning but still has to isolate until Wednesday despite being absolutely fine now FFS

But you are quoting the Express, the paper has been hysterical for years before covid, it's just click bait. I can't see anyone on here bricking it.

I'm pleased for your wife. You can stop isolation if you have negative LFTs on days 6 and 7.

I'm on day 5 and still very tired, with a swimming head and haven't been able to get through the day without an afternoon sleep.

[aintforever]

5 hours ago, Doctoroncall said:

Nothing new, been reports last year of chance to have the two viruses (not another variant) at the same time. 

This, it was reported ages ago that getting Covid and Flu at the same time can be shit, this is nothing new.

[buctootim]

4 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

We?

I think he meant you 

[buctootim]

3 hours ago, Plastic said:

I feel fucking awful. Been coughing my guts up since Boxing Day. LFT’s have all been negative but I went for a PCR yesterday cause I have all the symptoms, so we’ll see.

If it’s not covid, they should prioritise making a vaccine for whatever it is I have cause it’s shit 😀

Both my daughter and me had that mid November to December. Lasted for weeks, sorry.  

[Plastic]

12 hours ago, buctootim said:

Both my daughter and me had that mid November to December. Lasted for weeks, sorry.  

My test was negative so it’s not Covid apparently, despite similar symptoms to omicron.
It is a bit ironic that if the result had been positive I would need to isolate, but as it stands I am free to go to Tesco and cough on people - and honestly the symptoms of whatever I have have been really nasty, worst thing I’ve had for years. It even got my wife, and she never gets I’ll. 

[Turkish]

3 hours ago, Plastic said:

My test was negative so it’s not Covid apparently, despite similar symptoms to omicron.
It is a bit ironic that if the result had been positive I would need to isolate, but as it stands I am free to go to Tesco and cough on people - and honestly the symptoms of whatever I have have been really nasty, worst thing I’ve had for years. It even got my wife, and she never gets I’ll. 

my sister in law is currently quite poorly with a similar thing you describe been going on for about a month. She’s certainly been far worse than my wife has been with covid. I must know about 30 or 40 people who’ve had it in the last month and hardly anyone has been worse than a mild cold. Wouldn’t even be enough to keep you off work in normal circumstances.

[The Left Back]

I've heard lots of similar stories over the festive season.  People with nasty colds sneezing over everyone, while healthy positive-testing covid cases sit alone in their bedrooms being served dinner on a tray.  Meanwhile the hospitalisations and deaths are not climbing and South Africa has past the peak and is relaxing.  So the combination of herd immunity, vaccines and a milder variant means it's probably time for a complete rethink.

Testing only for those in contact with (acutely) vulnerable people.  No isolation unless symptoms demand it.  Leave businesses and schools to run their own mask wearing, vaccination status and social distance policies.  If the government needs a three-word brand for this phase, and of course it does, then Living with Covid.  (I remember when a HIV company stopped referring to its customers as 'patients' or 'victims' and started to call them 'people living with HIV' - it was a deeply symbolic act that shifted a lot of mindsets very quickly). Depoliticise the whole domestic strategy (the tories must have earned enough money by now) and put it in the hands of professionals.

Meanwhile the government can concentrate on (1) repairing the economy and delivering on their manifesto (2) providing vaccines to other countries, (3) starting a review of the pandemic so lessons can be learned for next time, and (4) get a conversation going about the root causes of all this (which I imagine are intertwined with the climate emergency and globalisation).

And finally we all have a role to play in rehabilitating from the damage to individual and collective mental health.  Too many people are in a state of mental suffering (some without even knowing it), whether it be paranoid about going out, rabid anti-vaxx anger, unresolved grief, fear of their future etc etc.

[AlexLaw76]

73 deaths in the latest notification (for the UK)

not far off the modelling that had us down for 3-5k per day.  

[Turkish]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

73 deaths in the latest notification (for the UK)

not far off the modelling that had us down for 3-5k per day.  

#sundaylag

[Matthew Le God]

2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

73 deaths in the latest notification (for the UK)

not far off the modelling that had us down for 3-5k per day.  

 

1 hour ago, Turkish said:

#sundaylag

Who predicted 3-5k deaths per day at the start of January? Can you provide a link?

[Lighthouse]

Just out of interest, by show of hands, who on here was not actually aware that SAGE were asked to provide worst case scenario modeling, or that the media may take these projections and use them for clicks and scary headlines?

[Tamesaint]

23 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

 

Who predicted 3-5k deaths per day at the start of January? Can you provide a link?

Don't you know that Delldays/Batman/Alex always does this? He can find the most extreme predictions of Covid deaths / Brexit disadvatages etc  and then quote them as part of his "the world is full of hypocrites " agenda. God knows where he gets his predictions.  

It keeps him happy. Bless. 

 

[Weston Super Saint]

52 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

 

Who predicted 3-5k deaths per day at the start of January? Can you provide a link?

Link

Quote

There could be as many as 5,000 Omicron-related deaths a day this winter unless more restrictions are put in place by the government, a leading expert dramatically warned on Friday.

Weren't we told to 'trust experts'?

Quote

Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London predict there could be around 3,000 daily Omicron deaths a day in January without further restrictions.

 

[Lighthouse]

30 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Link

Weren't we told to 'trust experts'?

 

You need to think more critically about phrases like, "could be," and, "as many as." Not to mention the turbo charged booster campaign and restrictions which HAVE been brought in, like compulsory masks and WFH.

[Turkish]

4 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

You need to think more critically about phrases like, "could be," and, "as many as." Not to mention the turbo charged booster campaign and restrictions which HAVE been brought in, like compulsory masks and WFH.

So it was all scaremongering then right?

[Lighthouse]

4 minutes ago, Turkish said:

So it was all scaremongering then right?

I have no idea what you mean by the word, "it".

What was all scaremongering? The government asked SAGE to produce models for a variety of different scenarios, which were very hard to predict, including worst case scenarios of 3-5,000 deaths per day. Media outlets naturally ran with those scenarios because they make headlines and sell papers/online ad-space. Actual figures shouldn’t get anywhere near those numbers because we have taken precautions.

All of that is fairly obvious to anyone with basic critical thinking and information processing skills. When the stewardess on a plane shows you your life jacket, that’s not scare mongering it’s a worst case scenario you’re better off being aware of.

[Turkish]

2 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I have no idea what you mean by the word, "it".

What was all scaremongering? The government asked SAGE to produce models for a variety of different scenarios, which were very hard to predict, including worst case scenarios of 3-5,000 deaths per day. Media outlets naturally ran with those scenarios because they make headlines and sell papers/online ad-space. Actual figures shouldn’t get anywhere near those numbers because we have taken precautions.

All of that is fairly obvious to anyone with basic critical thinking and information processing skills. When the stewardess on a plane shows you your life jacket, that’s not scare mongering it’s a worst case scenario you’re better off being aware of.

Ah so when Dell Days or I and a few others pointed out these numbers were bollocks at the time the articles are released in the media it’s met with scorn and derision, everyone must get jabbed now, it all makes sense, let’s bring in restrictions etc etc. now it’s turned out that we right the critical thinkers amongst us are patting themselves on the back because they now realise the modelling was worst case all along. 

[Lighthouse]

21 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Ah so when Dell Days or I and a few others pointed out these numbers were bollocks at the time the articles are released in the media it’s met with scorn and derision, everyone must get jabbed now, it all makes sense, let’s bring in restrictions etc etc. now it’s turned out that we right the critical thinkers amongst us are patting themselves on the back because they now realise the modelling was worst case all along. 

You’re contradicting yourself within the space of the same paragraph. The numbers weren’t bollocks, they were a worst case scenario, those are two completely different things. What’s just strange here is that you and Brett seem to be under the impression that nobody else had any idea that this was the case and that you’ve somehow been proved right. 
 

Everybody knows these were worst case scenario models. Nobody was terrified that they were the most likely scenario to actually come true.

[Turkish]

2 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

You’re contradicting yourself within the space of the same paragraph. The numbers weren’t bollocks, they were a worst case scenario, those are two completely different things. What’s just strange here is that you and Brett seem to be under the impression that nobody else had any idea that this was the case and that you’ve somehow been proved right. 
 

Everybody knows these were worst case scenario models. Nobody was terrified that they were the most likely scenario to actually come true.

 

3 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

You’re contradicting yourself within the space of the same paragraph. The numbers weren’t bollocks, they were a worst case scenario, those are two completely different things. What’s just strange here is that you and Brett seem to be under the impression that nobody else had any idea that this was the case and that you’ve somehow been proved right. 
 

Everybody knows these were worst case scenario models. Nobody was terrified that they were the most likely scenario to actually come true.

Everybody except some government “experts” then. unless of course when they said “as many as 5000” they meant anywhere between 75 and 5000 a day. 

 

There could be as many as 5,000 Omicron-related deaths a day this winter unless more restrictions are put in place by the government, a leading expert dramatically warned on Friday.

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

You need to think more critically about phrases like, "could be," and, "as many as." Not to mention the turbo charged booster campaign and restrictions which HAVE been brought in, like compulsory masks and WFH.

Why?

He asked for a link, I gave him one.  Other than that I have made no other observations, apart from a dig at Ainclever who told us we should 'trust the experts' and that if another lockdown was needed based on what they were saying then it should be accepted, no questions asked.

As it turns out, my 'critical thinking' and criticism of the media who reported these sensationalist headlines was actually correct.

You might also discover that the 'experts' have modelled best, middle and worst case scenarios, but they are also 'guided' by the politicians in terms of the output needed. I guess no one mentions the 'best case' scenarios as they don't sell papers / entice people to click on the headlines.

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

You need to think more critically about phrases like, "could be," and, "as many as." Not to mention the turbo charged booster campaign and restrictions which HAVE been brought in, like compulsory masks and WFH.

Perhaps you need to think a little more critically about 'linked' statements.  The quote was :

Quote

There could be as many as 5,000 Omicron-related deaths a day this winter unless more restrictions are put in place by the government, a leading expert dramatically warned on Friday.

The phrase 'could be' is linked to 'unless', implying that if the Gov't did not act immediately by putting more restrictions in place (I believe the same 'experts' were calling for another lockdown), then 'could' will become 'would'.

For the record, WFH is not compulsory.

[Lighthouse]

I’ve explained it in plain English as best I can, if you still can’t work it out I can’t help you. You, Turkish and Casey have been posting these ‘scare stories’ about worst case scenarios with quite persistent regularity, normally tagged with sarcastic captions about how we’re all doomed. Yet you’re also the same people loudly proclaiming you were right and that these same stories, which you chose to post of your own free will, are clearly bollocks.

Carry on but I’m done.

[Jimmy_D]

4 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Perhaps you need to think a little more critically about 'linked' statements.  The quote was :

The phrase 'could be' is linked to 'unless', implying that if the Gov't did not act immediately by putting more restrictions in place (I believe the same 'experts' were calling for another lockdown), then 'could' will become 'would'.

For the record, WFH is not compulsory.

So… the government were given a worst case scenario if restrictions weren’t put in place.

They responded by putting some restrictions in place, people also responded further than those restrictions given the information available, a massive booster campaign was successfully rolled out, and it appears we’ve been lucky with the severity of illness caused by Omicron. As a result we didn’t get the worst case scenario.

None of this is contradictory, indicates that the government took the wrong actions, or that the modelling was wrong. It should be seen as a good thing that we’ve avoided those numbers so far.

We’re not out of the woods yet. We’re still seeing record numbers of Covid infections, and hospitalisation is rising too.

Omicron being milder is obviously fantastic news for any individual unlucky enough to be infected, but a combination of massively increased infectivity and complacency due to it being milder could still lead to it having a massive impact on a health service that’s already under massive strain.

[aintforever]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

So… the government were given a worst case scenario if restrictions weren’t put in place.

They responded by putting some restrictions in place, people also responded further than those restrictions given the information available, a massive booster campaign was successfully rolled out, and it appears we’ve been lucky with the severity of illness caused by Omicron. As a result we didn’t get the worst case scenario.

None of this is contradictory, indicates that the government took the wrong actions, or that the modelling was wrong. It should be seen as a good thing that we’ve avoided those numbers so far.

We’re not out of the woods yet. We’re still seeing record numbers of Covid infections, and hospitalisation is rising too.

Omicron being milder is obviously fantastic news for any individual unlucky enough to be infected, but a combination of massively increased infectivity and complacency due to it being milder could still lead to it having a massive impact on a health service that’s already under massive strain.

Well put. Most of us understand.

[Weston Super Saint]

29 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I’ve explained it in plain English as best I can, if you still can’t work it out I can’t help you. You, Turkish and Casey have been posting these ‘scare stories’ about worst case scenarios with quite persistent regularity, normally tagged with sarcastic captions about how we’re all doomed. Yet you’re also the same people loudly proclaiming you were right and that these same stories, which you chose to post of your own free will, are clearly bollocks.

Carry on but I’m done.

Sadly, I suspect some of the 'ironic' posts have escaped you.

[Turkish]

13 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

So… the government were given a worst case scenario if restrictions weren’t put in place.

They responded by putting some restrictions in place, people also responded further than those restrictions given the information available, a massive booster campaign was successfully rolled out, and it appears we’ve been lucky with the severity of illness caused by Omicron. As a result we didn’t get the worst case scenario.

None of this is contradictory, indicates that the government took the wrong actions, or that the modelling was wrong. It should be seen as a good thing that we’ve avoided those numbers so far.

We’re not out of the woods yet. We’re still seeing record numbers of Covid infections, and hospitalisation is rising too.

Omicron being milder is obviously fantastic news for any individual unlucky enough to be infected, but a combination of massively increased infectivity and complacency due to it being milder could still lead to it having a massive impact on a health service that’s already under massive strain.

When you say the government were given worst case what you’ll find is the government asked for worst case scenarios and nothing else 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

[Fan The Flames]

14 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Sadly, I suspect some of the 'ironic' posts have escaped you.

I think you mean sarcastic rather than ironic.

[Fan The Flames]

2 hours ago, Turkish said:

When you say the government were given worst case what you’ll find is the government asked for worst case scenarios and nothing else 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

But they didn't act on the worst case scenarios, so why are people on that twitter getting so outraged. The government takes info from different sources and makes decisions, which in this instance it appears they have taken the right course of action.

We are not in lockdown, there are no restrictions on pubs or restaurants, no restrictions on meeting people, little travel restrictions. We have to wear masks on shops and there is the covid passport that isn't being enforced. My life hasn't changed much; I've still been to the pub, my daughter still went out new years eve with her mates, my son is still playing football, football matches are on with full crowds.

It's the same people through out this thing, like Fraser Nelson, that have been questioning every step because they are against it. As Steven Pinker points out, there is a difference between trying to get it right and being right https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59740588

So it appears that this varient is milder, this is great news, but people are knocking the government for over reacting with the mildest of restrictions and not considering the consequences of a no reaction if this varient wasn't so mild.

[aintforever]

5 hours ago, Turkish said:

When you say the government were given worst case what you’ll find is the government asked for worst case scenarios and nothing else 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

[Jimmy_D]

5 hours ago, Turkish said:

When you say the government were given worst case what you’ll find is the government asked for worst case scenarios and nothing else 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

That exchange doesn’t in any way suggest that the likelihood of scenarios where action needs to be taken isn’t being taken into account.

Looks to me like like the journalist assumes that if a scenario isn’t modelled, that means it’s not considered at all. In reality all the scenarios where no action needs to be taken (which are numerous) will largely be considered in the same bucket, with an estimated level of risk attached to taking no action.

[Doctoroncall]

21 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Link

Weren't we told to 'trust experts'?

 

Only by those who didn't know how too!

Always question, that is a fundamental aspect of science.

[AlexLaw76]

On 02/01/2022 at 16:19, Turkish said:

#sundaylag

42 today - better muzzle up the kids

[Jimmy_D]

4 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

42 today - better muzzle up the kids

It’s almost like the minimal restrictions put in place and the booster campaign are working as intended so far.

[Lighthouse]

8 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

42 today - better muzzle up the kids

One would be forgiven for thinking we aren't seeing the worst case scenario models which you have been obsessing over.

[Weston Super Saint]

7 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

It’s almost like the minimal restrictions put in place and the booster campaign are working as intended so far.

Booster campaign, possibly in terms of hospitalisations / deaths.

Minimal restrictions, what are you on about?  There were around 158k positive infections recorded yesterday, compared to around 50k positive infections per day when the 'minimal restrictions' were put in place (to stop / slow the rate of infection).  That's a threefold increase in infections.

How can you claim that as a 'win'?

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, aintforever said:

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Brilliant strategy mate, thank god you’re one of the self titled critical thinkers on here 🤣

[Jimmy_D]

2 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Booster campaign, possibly in terms of hospitalisations / deaths.

Minimal restrictions, what are you on about?  There were around 158k positive infections recorded yesterday, compared to around 50k positive infections per day when the 'minimal restrictions' were put in place (to stop / slow the rate of infection).  That's a threefold increase in infections.

How can you claim that as a 'win'?

Those infections aren’t even higher.

The aim for a long time has been to balance keeping life as normal as possible and avoiding putting too much pressure on the health service. With Omicron turning out to be milder, they’ve been able to push more towards fewer restrictions.

Like I said yesterday, we’re not out of the woods yet with Omicron, we might well still end up needing further restrictions.

In any case, I’m certainly not claiming it as a ‘win’. It’s literally a no win situation with no perfect answer. However, it does appear that the answer chosen might well be one where we don’t lose as much.

[Turkish]

17 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Booster campaign, possibly in terms of hospitalisations / deaths.

Minimal restrictions, what are you on about?  There were around 158k positive infections recorded yesterday, compared to around 50k positive infections per day when the 'minimal restrictions' were put in place (to stop / slow the rate of infection).  That's a threefold increase in infections.

How can you claim that as a 'win'?

Anything less than 5,000 deaths a day is considering our critical thinkers “got it” and “prepared for the worst”

[aintforever]

2 hours ago, Turkish said:

Brilliant strategy mate, thank god you’re one of the self titled critical thinkers on here 🤣

A potato would be considered a critical thinker compared to you. Every time they announce a variant of concern you read some sensationalist report in the Daily Mail, piss your pants, then make out it’s some big conspiracy.

Edited 3 January, 2022 by aintforever

[Turkish]

9 minutes ago, aintforever said:

A potato would be considered a critical thinker compared to you. Every time they announce a variant of concern you read some sensationalist report in the Daily Mail, piss your pants, then make out it’s some big conspiracy.

Yet again despite your claims you prove you really don’t understand. 
 

 emoji ✅

[Doctoroncall]

4 hours ago, Turkish said:

Brilliant strategy mate, thank god you’re one of the self titled critical thinkers on here 🤣

…and the Prime minister. 

[buctootim]

5 hours ago, Turkish said:

Brilliant strategy mate, thank god you’re one of the self titled critical thinkers on here 🤣

and the World Health Organisation. The Precautionary Principle approach to risk management has been around since the 1970s. The precautionary principle: plan for the worst, hope for the best:

https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/influenza/news/news/2011/11/who-response-to-concerns-in-serbia-over-its-actions-during-the-influenza-a-h1n1-2009-pandemic/the-precautionary-principle-plan-for-the-worst,-hope-for-the-best

[Fan The Flames]

I still get the covid figures from my last hospital, of inpatients with covid; during November and December it climbed to over 50 from a base of around 10-15 for the proceeding months, over Christmas it has gone up to over 110, the covid wards are full. Just to give you a picture of the numbers in one provincial hospital, I don't know how many are in ICU or on ventilators, but it stands to reason that a few of them will be quite ill. Thankfully deaths are not happening to the same degree as early waves, but the number of beds taken up is very high.

[Weston Super Saint]

I heard on the radio this morning that whilst hospital admissions have gone up for covid patients, it was stated that the vast majority were admitted to hospital for another reason and either had covid when they were admitted as well, or caught it in the hospital.  He also stated that there were 'very few' covid patients on ventilators, especially compared to this time last year.

He did state though, that whilst those infected with covid weren't particularly sick as a result of that infection, they were still draining more resources than they normally would due to the covid protocols in place in hospitals.  Maybe that's an area that needs to be addressed to free up more staff?

 

[AlexLaw76]

Things we have learned during the Covid pandemic.....(the below is tongue-in-cheek before any Covid gammon loses it)

1. Vaccines do not stop transmission.  However, continued transmission is due to the unvaccinated.  Because? Science!
2. Flu can magically disappear.  Then it can reappear.  For no reason at all; absolutely nothing to do with Covid.
3. Being obese does not count as an underlying health issue (according to the media).
4. Footballers collapse all the time (it's just a thing).
5. Myocarditis is actually normal in kids.
6. Sitting down and/or eating food in restaurants/public places renders you totally immune to Covid
7. Vaccines that cost millions do not stop the spread, but a cheap bit of cloth does - science again!

[badgerx16]

Something else we have learned, or at least had confirmed, during the pandemic;

1) People are more willing to believe totally fabricated nonsense from an anonymous source on social media than any number of people who specialise in a particular field of science giving them verified and reliable information.

2) Matt Le Tissier's brain is in his right foot, his head is only there to enable him to swivel his eyes to spot a pass.

Edited 5 January, 2022 by badgerx16

[Fan The Flames]

8. That Britains finest epidemiological critical free thinkers honed their skills at cookery school.

[StDunko]

9. Some dim-witted fucktards believe everything that Piers Corbyn spouts.