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whelk

By whelk,
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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
My sister is a paramedic and my brother in law an A&E consultant. She just messaged me this:

 

"Matt came home from work early this morning a different man. He was quiet and withdrawn and shocked at the change he'd seen overnight in A&E. He told me 2 junior doctors from St Thomas are in ICU. This has ramped up to crazy levels and it's only the beginning. In a few weeks when hospitals are at their limits we'll have to leave the elderly at home to die and save the young. I love my job but I'm petrified to go to work. Stay safe and stay indoors."

 

I'm not sure I understand this if I'm honest. It seems to suggest some kind of apocalypse happening in A&E to the extent that an A&E consultant (who presumably has seen pretty much everything there is to see), has become withdrawn and shocked by what can only be assumed is the result of the virus. Sounds horrendous and certainly judging by this account something which we should all be terrified by.

 

On the other hand, the NHS 111 website is suggesting that the symptoms include a raised temperature and a cough, which frankly doesn't sound like something that will terrify the nation. The second to last line in the statement suggests it is a choice between saving the young and the old, yet all the evidence to date states that most younger people are affected far less severely than the old.

 

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

 

I get that the virus affects older people in different ways shutting down respiratory systems, but I'm assuming that is a frequent occurence for many illnesses and not something that would 'shock' an A&E consultant.

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
You'll all enjoy this little bit of light reading then...

 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

 

(saw it linked on the UI)

 

What a load of scaremongering pony!

 

If the virus was transmitted as described in that article, then we would have seen a biblical spike following Cheltenham races which were attended by 60-70,000 people per day - has there been any reports of that happening?

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The Cat

The Cat

Posted
Posted

It's the fear of what might happen, that the beds will be overwhelmed with patients, that people with other serious illnesses might not get the care they need because the hospitals are full of people with the virus.

 

Yes, he's seen pretty much everything. Limbs hanging off, people dying in front of him, patients with stuff rammed up their butts.

 

The difference is this is new and unknown. The staff don't have the equipment or resources they need to do their job.

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
It's the fear of what might happen, that the beds will be overwhelmed with patients, that people with other serious illnesses might not get the care they need because the hospitals are full of people with the virus.

 

Yes, he's seen pretty much everything. Limbs hanging off, people dying in front of him, patients with stuff rammed up their butts.

 

The difference is this is new and unknown. The staff don't have the equipment or resources they need to do their job.

 

Send him this link, might go some way to cheering him up....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51989183

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RedArmy

RedArmy

Posted
Posted
What a load of scaremongering pony!

 

If the virus was transmitted as described in that article, then we would have seen a biblical spike following Cheltenham races which were attended by 60-70,000 people per day - has there been any reports of that happening?

It hasn’t been 14 days yet, community testing isn’t happening in the UK, and I don’t think “Did you go to Cheltenham?” Is on the list of questions when someone requires hospitalisation.
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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted

Not sure our great British public have got the message about 'social distancing'!

 

The beach at Weston was packed today when I rode past - the pier was closed - and there were queues at pretty much every kiosk and takeaway flogging fish and chips. The golf course looked packed as well but presumably the golfers were all outside only and the club house, bar and changing rooms were all closed? It did seem a bit weird having everyone 'exercising' in the same place at the same time! One car parked up and four 'runners' got out so they could run along the beach which seemed odd, presumably they all came from the same area if they shared the same car, so why not go running locally?

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RedArmy

RedArmy

Posted
Posted
Not sure our great British public have got the message about 'social distancing'!

 

The beach at Weston was packed today when I rode past - the pier was closed - and there were queues at pretty much every kiosk and takeaway flogging fish and chips. The golf course looked packed as well but presumably the golfers were all outside only and the club house, bar and changing rooms were all closed? It did seem a bit weird having everyone 'exercising' in the same place at the same time! One car parked up and four 'runners' got out so they could run along the beach which seemed odd, presumably they all came from the same area if they shared the same car, so why not go running locally?

And they will all blame the government when it’s their family that’s dying. It won’t be their fault.

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Plastic

Plastic

Posted
Posted (edited)

Tried to take the dog for a quiet walk today at Old Winchester Hill. Apparently every other ****er had the same idea, carpark was worse than Tesco’s.

Drove straight out, parked in a lay-by on the A32 and walked across empty fields. Social distancing doesn’t work if we all ‘distance’ in the same places! :)

Edited by Plastic
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norwaysaint

norwaysaint

Posted
Posted
And they will all blame the government when it’s their family that’s dying. It won’t be their fault.

 

Pretty sure when I just looked back at the start of this thread, you were saying it wasn't that serious and that people were overreacting. It's basically just like flu?

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
Pretty sure when I just looked back at the start of this thread, you were saying it wasn't that serious and that people were overreacting. It's basically just like flu?

 

For the overwhelming majority of the population it is.

 

Doesn't change the fact that it can be deadly for a small percentage of the population and we are now in a process of protecting those people....

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egg

egg

Posted
Posted

F*ck. I can't believe the shear number of morons going on with life as normal. Absolutely mental.

 

We've got an older teenager who flits between here and her bf home where various kids and adults come and ago, and in they in turn come into contact with various people. The wife and I have stopped working and going out only to quiet places and for food when necessary in local shops. The teenager can't see that her carrying on as she is exposes us. We've had to make the call and ask her to stay here or there, not both. It was a tough decision, and how people can't see that life has to change I don't know.

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1576

1576

Posted
Posted
F*ck. I can't believe the shear number of morons going on with life as normal. Absolutely mental.

 

We've got an older teenager who flits between here and her bf home where various kids and adults come and ago, and in they in turn come into contact with various people. The wife and I have stopped working and going out only to quiet places and for food when necessary in local shops. The teenager can't see that her carrying on as she is exposes us. We've had to make the call and ask her to stay here or there, not both. It was a tough decision, and how people can't see that life has to change I don't know.

 

Because they're ignorant, don't care about anyone but themselves and oh yes complete c...s

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warsash saint

warsash saint

Posted
Posted

Reiterate what others have said about the ***ts social distancing today!

 

Queue of OAP's at B&Q today

Park at Warsash was full with a party of 30 adults / kids, people having picnics, OAPs, kids all sitting on benches eating fiah & chips

Seen pictures of Lee on the Solent today completely rammed

 

No doubt these are the same f*ckwits with 200 bog rolls & a lifetime supply of pasta at home!!

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
Saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate it is? df19abafb4100fb62122d3666c96f917.png

 

Probably not accurate at all, given that those figures state 6300 people died on Wednesday and Thursday, so given the current trajectory would estimate around 4300 on Saturday using those figures, which would be more than the reported figures of actual deaths to date!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51989183

 

The move comes as Italy reported nearly 800 coronavirus deaths on Saturday and saw its toll for the past month reach 4,825, the highest in the world.

 

Again, the biggest issue is with how the deaths are reported - in most cases it looks like they are reported as having died from Covid 19 if they test positive for the virus post mortem. In Germany they have been reporting (not sure if they still are), the 'underlying causes' as the reason whether they test positive or not which has kept their figures low. Given that there is a natural mortality rate this would seem sensible as clearly the more people who get infected and spread the virus, the more people will test positive post mortem....

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whelk

whelk

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Reiterate what others have said about the ***ts social distancing today!

 

Queue of OAP's at B&Q today

Park at Warsash was full with a party of 30 adults / kids, people having picnics, OAPs, kids all sitting on benches eating fiah & chips

Seen pictures of Lee on the Solent today completely rammed

 

No doubt these are the same f*ckwits with 200 bog rolls & a lifetime supply of pasta at home!!

 

So you took some time out from your selfless self-isolating to go to B&Q to observe the queues only, and report back to Saintsweb?

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SO16_Saint01

SO16_Saint01

Posted
Posted
Probably not accurate at all, given that those figures state 6300 people died on Wednesday and Thursday, so given the current trajectory would estimate around 4300 on Saturday using those figures, which would be more than the reported figures of actual deaths to date!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51989183

 

 

 

Again, the biggest issue is with how the deaths are reported - in most cases it looks like they are reported as having died from Covid 19 if they test positive for the virus post mortem. In Germany they have been reporting (not sure if they still are), the 'underlying causes' as the reason whether they test positive or not which has kept their figures low. Given that there is a natural mortality rate this would seem sensible as clearly the more people who get infected and spread the virus, the more people will test positive post mortem....

 

I believe that’s a count of deaths, not a daily count

 

Either way, we’re in a weird old time in all our lives

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benjii

benjii

Posted
Posted

The FT had some graphs showing death rates by country. Our trajectory, time adjusted, is at least as steep as Italy's. Same in the US and lots of other countries.

 

Whilst the government's financial measures are being praised now, the two-week "contain and delay" phases before anyone actually bothered doing anything useful to try to stop this may end up looking like tragic folly (but they certainly won't be alone in that).

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted (edited)
The FT had some graphs showing death rates by country. Our trajectory, time adjusted, is at least as steep as Italy's. Same in the US and lots of other countries.

 

Whilst the government's financial measures are being praised now, the two-week "contain and delay" phases before anyone actually bothered doing anything useful to try to stop this may end up looking like tragic folly (but they certainly won't be alone in that).

 

France issued more strict measures than we have.

I have a relative in Southern France (71 years old). When he leaves the house, he has a bit of paper with him(ID type of thing) and he is only allowed in certain type of shops at certain times, otherwise if caught (by the the Army = Gendarmarie), he faces a huge on the spot fine (something like e1000)..

 

over here, people are just doing what they want in too many cases; which is a disgrace.

 

saying that, are we not on a similar trajectory in confirmed cases as France? noting we probably have different methods of reporting all of this!

Edited by Batman
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alehouseboys

alehouseboys

Posted
Posted

TV on in the background, think I just heard them say where Italy is right now is where we will be in 3 weeks if habits don't change in this country.

 

A couple of dogs have now been confirmed as fallen victim to coronavirus, if pets can carry it that causes other problems. People smoothing cats dogs and then returning home may possibly bring it into the home.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
I think this is due to appalling communication rather than the fault of those people. The messaging needs to be more aggressive because it feels like a huge amount of the population have just interpreted this as being a bonus early start to the Easter holiday. Genuinely I don't think people are understanding what to (not) do.

 

The message needs to be on every ad break all day as of now.

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benjii

benjii

Posted
Posted
France issued more strict measures than we have.

I have a relative in Southern France (71 years old). When he leaves the house, he has a bit of paper with him(ID type of thing) and he is only allowed in certain type of shops at certain times, otherwise if caught (by the the Army = Gendarmarie), he faces a huge on the spot fine (something like e1000)..

 

over here, people are just doing what they want in too many cases; which is a disgrace.

 

saying that, are we not on a similar trajectory in confirmed cases as France? noting we probably have different methods of reporting all of this!

 

Yes, speaking to my friend yesterday and his parents live in France - they need the bit of paper too.

 

I've just heard on the radio that in London and Manchester, public transport is operating at 35% of typical volumes still. In Paris, Madrid etc. it is more like 0 - 5%.

 

To be honest, I'm not sure case rates are particularly relevant due to the differences in testing rates from country to country. The key metric is death rate and we look to be mirroring Italy fairly closely on that. Of course Italy did impose quarantine on some towns quite quickly, whereas we have not so I would not be surprised if our death trajectory ends up being steeper than theirs.

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Plastic

Plastic

Posted
Posted
I think this is due to appalling communication rather than the fault of those people. The messaging needs to be more aggressive because it feels like a huge amount of the population have just interpreted this as being a bonus early start to the Easter holiday. Genuinely I don't think people are understanding what to (not) do.

 

The message needs to be on every ad break all day as of now.

 

Yeah, coupled with the first sunny day in months and gyms being closed it was probably a predictable outcome.

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egg

egg

Posted
Posted
Yeah, coupled with the first sunny day in months and gyms being closed it was probably a predictable outcome.

 

The likes of the national trust opening places for free and encouraging visitors (many of them elderly) didn't help either. We've got thousands of acres of forests and woodland where we can walk in isolation, it's not hard if people exercise common sense.

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shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted (edited)
I think this is due to appalling communication rather than the fault of those people. The messaging needs to be more aggressive because it feels like a huge amount of the population have just interpreted this as being a bonus early start to the Easter holiday. Genuinely I don't think people are understanding what to (not) do.

 

The message needs to be on every ad break all day as of now.

 

I see well-known epidemiologist and trade economist Tim Martin has been helping to deliver a consistent message.

Edited by shurlock
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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted

 

To be honest, I'm not sure case rates are particularly relevant due to the differences in testing rates from country to country. The key metric is death rate and we look to be mirroring Italy fairly closely on that. Of course Italy did impose quarantine on some towns quite quickly, whereas we have not so I would not be surprised if our death trajectory ends up being steeper than theirs.

 

Not convinced death rates are particularly revealing either, given that they don't discern between people dying from underlying causes and those dying specifically from the virus.

 

Also, how is it possible to determine the percentage of 'serious' cases when no-one is being tested - just seen an advert on TV from Prof. Whitty stating that if you have symptoms, DON'T go to your GP, DON'T call 111, just log on the NHS website to check whether you've forgotten what the symptoms are to remind yourself! You can call 111 if the symptoms get worse, so presumably millions of people will get the symptoms but no-one will know!

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted

 

WTF is an 'essential' sexual activity involving 3 or more people if only the 'non-essential' ones are banned :scared:

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benjii

benjii

Posted
Posted

 

"A 2018 survey revealed that more than 78% of Belgian couples openly practice wife swapping, a cultural trait that became common practice in the 19th century under the rule of King Leopold II."

 

Is this right?

 

Asking for a friend.

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saint si

saint si

Posted
Posted
Probably not accurate at all, given that those figures state 6300 people died on Wednesday and Thursday, so given the current trajectory would estimate around 4300 on Saturday using those figures, which would be more than the reported figures of actual deaths to date!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51989183

 

 

 

Again, the biggest issue is with how the deaths are reported - in most cases it looks like they are reported as having died from Covid 19 if they test positive for the virus post mortem. In Germany they have been reporting (not sure if they still are), the 'underlying causes' as the reason whether they test positive or not which has kept their figures low. Given that there is a natural mortality rate this would seem sensible as clearly the more people who get infected and spread the virus, the more people will test positive post mortem....

 

Looks right to me. The figures given are cumulative deaths, not daily.

 

Italy 19 March, 3405: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51964307

Italy 18 March, "almost 3000": https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51952712

Italy 10 March, 631: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-coronavirus-quarantine-live-updates-200309234533285.html

Italy, 5 March, 148: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioNotizieNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4157

 

UK, 19 March, 144: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-19/number-coronavirus-deaths-cases-england-uk-rise-nhs-128/

 

etc etc

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saint1977

saint1977

Posted
Posted

 

Been for a drive on Dartmoor and it’s the same in popular spots such as Venford Reservoir. We didn’t get out as you had large multi generational groups of families all over the show, the same ones who will be slating the NHS if they get their relatives seriously ill through their idiocy. The cars were tightly packed in the car parks, no way they could be 6.5 ft apart. Higher on the moors we saw ice cream vans and several pubs open with packed car parks on the Tavistock to A30 road.

 

Backs up what Warsash Saint was seeng in the Solent coastal areas. Relatives in N Hampshire also seeing several members of other families they know in the local area separately going around Sainsbury’s and doing full shops each.

 

I get what CB is saying about the slightly mixed messaging and it probably needed to come earlier as people can get a bit frenzied about Mother’s Day and to change behaviour needs more than 48 hours. However, no excuse for what I saw today, rows and rows of cars. I get it’s the first nice day for ages but FFS, just space it out a bit like we did and find somewhere for a stroll.

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ooh it's a corner

ooh it's a corner

Posted
Posted

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

The figures are also born out on the worldometer site.

 

But what is more scary, is that Lombardy was shut down at the end of Feb and the whole of Italy on 9th March. If we track 14 days behind them, we should have shutdown London by now and the entire country tomorrow.

 

The Italians did warn us that they thought our reaction was insufficient.

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shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted

 

Yep pretty obvious it was a cumulative count.

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Coronavirus

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