Coronavirus

[Fan The Flames]

So I'm gonna ignore health warnings and government guidelines because on Facebook, sandra who lives down the street, turns out to be a micro biologist, national economical expert, housing advisor, mortgage guru, GP and a national pandemic specialist. This sits alongside her talents of being an expert on EU politics and science around climate change..... who'd have thought?

Only recently she was a full time mum selling bathbombs online... goes to show never judge a book by its cover!!!!

 

along with being a Brexit expert, constitutional lawyer, free trade guru and crack financial forecaster.

[Wes Tender]

Happy that the perfidious EU get what's coming to them, or distraught it will delay negotiations?

 

Happy that the sooner Barnier is over it, the sooner he will be able shortly to concentrate on negotiations again, by video conferencing if required.

[Lighthouse]

A word of advice; when you do go shopping pay for each item individually at the checkout. That way you’ll have multiple receipts to wipe your arse with.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Germany has the lowest death rate in Europe, from covid-19. Unlike the UK, Germany has no test for determining the presence covid-19 on a post-mortem.

 

I read somewhere that if anyone dies with an underlying health condition, the Germans are writing that as cause of death rather than Coronavirus. Maybe pony, but would be interesting to see if their total death figures have gone up disproportionately the past couple of weeks.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Batman]

Nice people of London -

[Wes Tender]

Bank of England cuts base rate to 0.1%

[Weston Super Saint]

Bank of England cuts base rate to 0.1%

 

Ideal if your mortgage is BOE + 0.17%

[Colinjb]

The year 11's at school today, I cannot image how screwed up/conflicted/confused and generally worried they are feeling. No idea how they will be graded or how this will effect their lives, the only structure and security many of them have ever known just immediately ending.

 

The reactions have polarised between numb shock, depression and rage.

Edited 19 March, 2020 by Colinjb

[RedArmy]

The year 11's at school today, I cannot image how screwed up/conflicted/confused and generally worried they are feeling. No idea how they will be graded or how this will effect their lives, the only structure and security many of them have ever known just immediately ending.

 

The reactions have polarised between numb shock, depression and rage.

Maybe society should stop scaring kids into thinking GCSEs are the most important thing that’ll ever happen in their life.

 

Their worry and concerns should be on the health of vulnerable members of their family.

[hypochondriac]

Maybe society should stop scaring kids into thinking GCSEs are the most important thing that’ll ever happen in their life.

 

Their worry and concerns should be on the health of vulnerable members of their family.

That's pretty unfair. I know that many year 11s were crushed to know that it could be the last time they see many of their friends today. Might be a small thing but at that age it feels huge.

[RedArmy]

That's pretty unfair. I know that many year 11s were crushed to know that it could be the last time they see many of their friends today. Might be a small thing but at that age it feels huge.

It only feels huge at that age because that’s what they’re told. It’s drummed into them for 5 years of secondary school.

[Plastic]

It only feels huge at that age because that’s what they’re told. It’s drummed into them for 5 years of secondary school.

 

Bullshît. This is obviously going to be a major cause of stress and disruption for them. You’ve certainly changed your tune.

[shurlock]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1255634/coronavirus-uk-public-health-england-uk-cases-nhs-covid-19-latest

 

Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer for England, has previously stated the figure, that four fifths of the UK population could become infected with the virus, was the worst-case scenario.

 

But the briefing states that 80 percent of Britons are "expected" to contract the virus.

 

Just seen this - thanks. Needless to say (and thankfully), it is only one prediction and not shared by many others, including apparently the CMO himself and certainly not researchers at Imperial College who have probably produced the most detailed and exhaustive estimates to date on the transmission of the virus.

Edited 19 March, 2020 by shurlock

[badgerx16]

If up to 80% are going to get it, and most reasonably healthy folks will merely get a cough and temperature for a week or so, has anybody considered a coronavirus 'party', similar to measles parties, to collectively get it over and done with ?

[egg]

If up to 80% are going to get it, and most reasonably healthy folks will merely get a cough and temperature for a week or so, has anybody considered a coronavirus 'party', similar to measles parties, to collectively get it over and done with ?

 

I was speaking to a mate earlier who was talking about having one. Him and his wife have no at risk friends or family, are young and healthy and want them and their kids to get it and have immunity. I'm not sure if accept the invite personally, but part of me would prefer to get it when there is a chance of a hospital bed should it hit me hard.

[Plastic]

I know it’s been mentioned already, but it’s no coincidence that both Spain and Italy have some of the highest mortality rates. This is very likely cultural - neither country has any significant level of elderly care infrastructure. Old people rarely move into assisted living complexes, and care homes are generally equivalent to hospices.

The elderly live with their family and are cared for at home. Couple this with multi-generational households due to low employment among young people in both countries, and it’s understandable why the death rate is so high.

I have personal experience of this recently, having needed to repatriate my elderly parents from Spain in January (thank god!).

Our culture of shoving OAPs into assisted living and care homes had been heavily criticised, and rightly so in some circumstances, but it may lead to significantly less deaths among the elderly.

I’m certainly pretty happy that my parents are now safely tucked up in bishopstoke park, with meals being brought to them. Hopefully this will help to insulate them against the virus.

[CB Fry]

It only feels huge at that age because that’s what they’re told. It’s drummed into them for 5 years of secondary school.

Are you saying that children should be told they don't need to have any friends?

[benjii]

Are you saying that children should be told they don't need to have any friends?

 

Friends are just a social construct, man. **** the system!

[Lord Duckhunter]

I was speaking to a mate earlier who was talking about having one. Him and his wife have no at risk friends or family, are young and healthy and want them and their kids to get it and have immunity. I'm not sure if accept the invite personally, but part of me would prefer to get it when there is a chance of a hospital bed should it hit me hard.

 

Here’s an idea, ****ing idiots like your “healthy” mate & his “healthy” wife go to the back of the queue if they do need NHS help to get over this. It makes me sick to think that TWTs like that will take priority over people like my 84 year old Dad or 92 year old father in law when it comes to deciding who gets treatment and who is left to die. In my snap dragons hospital, staff are already being prepared for the long term mental effects they’ll suffer because they will have to let people die. It’s not ****ing game.....

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[aintforever]

I was speaking to a mate earlier who was talking about having one. Him and his wife have no at risk friends or family, are young and healthy and want them and their kids to get it and have immunity. I'm not sure if accept the invite personally, but part of me would prefer to get it when there is a chance of a hospital bed should it hit me hard.

 

You mate is a selfish ****.

[Weston Super Saint]

Just seen this - thanks. Needless to say (and thankfully), it is only one prediction and not shared by many others, including apparently the CMO himself and certainly not researchers at Imperial College who have probably produced the most detailed and exhaustive estimates to date on the transmission of the virus.

 

Did you miss the very similar conclusion drawn by the Germans?

 

https://tass.com/world/1128867

 

 

Head of the Robert Koch Institute Lothar Wieler confirmed the 60-70% prediction. "We do not know how fast this will happen," he said. "The slower the better."

 

Earlier, several German experts stated that one in three Germans might contract the virus. The Bild daily reports that Merkel had voiced similar predictions during a closed parliamentary session.

[Lord Duckhunter]

What a bunch of young ****s interviewed on BBC news. What’s their obsession with kids missing their exams. They interviewed 3 of them moaning that due to the sudden closure “they won’t get chance to say goodbye to their friends” . **** me, some of us oldies won’t get to say goodbye to our parents & siblings. Unlike their buddies, they won’t be round the corner to pop over and see in 12 weeks time , they’ll be 6ft under.....**** me, what a generation we’ve produced..

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

I know it’s been mentioned already, but it’s no coincidence that both Spain and Italy have some of the highest mortality rates. This is very likely cultural - neither country has any significant level of elderly care infrastructure. Old people rarely move into assisted living complexes, and care homes are generally equivalent to hospices.

The elderly live with their family and are cared for at home. Couple this with multi-generational households due to low employment among young people in both countries, and it’s understandable why the death rate is so high.

I have personal experience of this recently, having needed to repatriate my elderly parents from Spain in January (thank god!).

Our culture of shoving OAPs into assisted living and care homes had been heavily criticised, and rightly so in some circumstances, but it may lead to significantly less deaths among the elderly.

I’m certainly pretty happy that my parents are now safely tucked up in bishopstoke park, with meals being brought to them. Hopefully this will help to insulate them against the virus.

 

In other words, nursing homes are just an another form of quarantine and social distancing. I guess that’s more by accident than design? I also wouldn’t be surprised if the higher levels of social isolation and loneliness found in nursing homes didn’t pose their own health risks.

[Plastic]

What a bunch of young ****s interviewed on BBC news. What’s their obsession with kids missing their exams. They interviewed 3 of them moaning that due to the sudden closure “they won’t get chance to say goodbye to their friends” . **** me, some of us oldies won’t get to say goodbye to our parents & siblings. Unlike their buddies, they won’t be round the corner to pop over and see in 12 weeks time , they’ll be 6ft under.....**** me, what a generation we’ve produced..

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

It may not be very important given the wider context, but it’s important to them due to their limited appreciation of the situation. The problem isn’t their reaction, it’s the BBCs ridiculous need to focus on it.

 

In other words, nursing homes are just an another form of quarantine and social distancing. I guess that’s more by accident than design? I also wouldn’t be surprised if the higher levels of social isolation and loneliness found in nursing homes didn’t pose their own health risks.

 

I’m sure they do, but I’d suggest those risks were slightly less terminal. Certainly at the moment.

Obviously more accident than design.

Edited 19 March, 2020 by Plastic

[buctootim]

If up to 80% are going to get it, and most reasonably healthy folks will merely get a cough and temperature for a week or so, has anybody considered a coronavirus 'party', similar to measles parties, to collectively get it over and done with ?

 

I posted that on the main board thread. Works for me. You could simply keep the old and sick in isolation for a month whilst everybody else gets the infection and builds the herd immunity. Would be a lot quicker and less damaging to the country than letting it rumble on for 18 months.

[shurlock]

Did you miss the very similar conclusion drawn by the Germans?

 

I don’t know the full context for the quote. But assuming the interpretation is correct, my point remains exactly the same: your original post implied those predictions were far more of a base case they actually are. Many experts don’t share them, including the CMO of all people and the Imperial College study that has heavily influenced policy both here and in the US.

Edited 19 March, 2020 by shurlock

[whelk]

What a bunch of young ****s interviewed on BBC news. What’s their obsession with kids missing their exams. They interviewed 3 of them moaning that due to the sudden closure “they won’t get chance to say goodbye to their friends” . **** me, some of us oldies won’t get to say goodbye to our parents & siblings. Unlike their buddies, they won’t be round the corner to pop over and see in 12 weeks time , they’ll be 6ft under.....**** me, what a generation we’ve produced..

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Comical that that report incensed you. Shows your underlying selfishness.

They were answering questions posed to them you silly old fool.

[RedArmy]

What a bunch of young ****s interviewed on BBC news. What’s their obsession with kids missing their exams. They interviewed 3 of them moaning that due to the sudden closure “they won’t get chance to say goodbye to their friends” . **** me, some of us oldies won’t get to say goodbye to our parents & siblings. Unlike their buddies, they won’t be round the corner to pop over and see in 12 weeks time , they’ll be 6ft under.....**** me, what a generation we’ve produced..

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

If they’re saying goodbye to their “friends” at the end of a school year, they weren’t actually friends. Friends stay in contact.

[egg]

Here’s an idea, ****ing idiots like your “healthy” mate & his “healthy” wife go to the back of the queue if they do need NHS help to get over this. It makes me sick to think that TWTs like that will take priority over people like my 84 year old Dad or 92 year old father in law when it comes to deciding who gets treatment and who is left to die. In my snap dragons hospital, staff are already being prepared for the long term mental effects they’ll suffer because they will have to let people die. It’s not ****ing game.....

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

That's one perspective. Their perspective is that we'll likely all (or most) get it and that there's wisdom in doing so while there's bed space. It's a view shared by some medics I know with the suggestion of then self isolating.

 

I'm not minimising this one bit, I've recognised the seriousness from day one. I'm distancing big time but many aren't and the spread will be dramatic. Would I rather get it when there's bed/ventilator availability, of course. Will I force it, of course not.

[trousers]

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/internet-argument-resolved-2014030584268

[aintforever]

That's one perspective. Their perspective is that we'll likely all (or most) get it and that there's wisdom in doing so while there's bed space. It's a view shared by some medics I know with the suggestion of then self isolating.

 

I'm not minimising this one bit, I've recognised the seriousness from day one. I'm distancing big time but many aren't and the spread will be dramatic. Would I rather get it when there's bed/ventilator availability, of course. Will I force it, of course not.

 

There’s no wisdom in spreading it more at this point in time at all.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Their perspective is that we'll likely all (or most) get it and that there's wisdom in doing so while there's bed space. It's a view shared by some medics I know with the suggestion of then self isolating.

 

If everyone was as selfish as your mates, there wouldn’t be any bed space. The beds will be full up with people wanting to bag a bed whilst they’re available. Perhaps your mates could get down the local hospital early doors and put their towels on the spare beds.

 

Don’t your idiot mates understand that there are “normal” winter illness’ that require beds now. If people can avoid needing beds for Coronavirus until the summer, they’d be less strain on the NHS as the “normal” winter crisis will have eased. People are going to die of preventable illness’ because selfish people want to “catch” the virus early.

 

The last bit doesn’t make sense. Why self isolate after recovering from the disease. The eventual policy will be that these people will start getting society back to normal,. Mind you, your mates will probably take a well earned family holiday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Fan The Flames]

Nice people of London -

 

Batman dog whistling again.

[shurlock]

Batman dog whistling again.

 

Surprised he’s not banging on about pregnant trans men too.

[Turkish]

If up to 80% are going to get it, and most reasonably healthy folks will merely get a cough and temperature for a week or so, has anybody considered a coronavirus 'party', similar to measles parties, to collectively get it over and done with ?

 

I'd be well up for that. We could make it an annual event like Pride too. Take over the street of London every year with our Convid-(insert year) survivors party. We could all walk around in surgical masks rubbing sanitiser onto each other playing our Convid Survivors play list, Not Convid-19 Forever, Girlfriends got Corona, dont stand so close to me etc all day. Maybe make a few giant single use foam hands and half and half scarves to sell on stall before hand.

[opthomps]

My dad’s got covid19 and in hospital at the minute. In pretty good shape prior to it.

 

Asked my brother about a ‘covid’ party and the wisdom of getting it early. He works in infectious diseases and simply said ‘no’. That’s enough for me. Better to cut off all communication for 3 or 4 weeks and rid it that way, not by infecting everyone.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[benjii]

I know it’s been mentioned already, but it’s no coincidence that both Spain and Italy have some of the highest mortality rates. This is very likely cultural - neither country has any significant level of elderly care infrastructure. Old people rarely move into assisted living complexes, and care homes are generally equivalent to hospices.

The elderly live with their family and are cared for at home. Couple this with multi-generational households due to low employment among young people in both countries, and it’s understandable why the death rate is so high.

I have personal experience of this recently, having needed to repatriate my elderly parents from Spain in January (thank god!).

Our culture of shoving OAPs into assisted living and care homes had been heavily criticised, and rightly so in some circumstances, but it may lead to significantly less deaths among the elderly.

I’m certainly pretty happy that my parents are now safely tucked up in bishopstoke park, with meals being brought to them. Hopefully this will help to insulate them against the virus.

 

Italy apparently does post-mortem Covid-19 tests and if the test is positive then Covid-19 is the recorded cause of death. Apparently other countries don’t do that - Germany, perhaps - so if you die before you’ve been tested then no one knows if you had it or not and it won’t be recorded as the cause of death. Not sure what the best approach is but consistency would be useful.

[norwaysaint]

My dad’s got covid19 and in hospital at the minute. In pretty good shape prior to it.

 

Asked my brother about a ‘covid’ party and the wisdom of getting it early. He works in infectious diseases and simply said ‘no’. That’s enough for me. Better to cut off all communication for 3 or 4 weeks and rid it that way, not by infecting everyone.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

That would clearly be a terrible idea. How on Earth would medical services cope if so many people got sick at exactly the same time? This is all about slowing down the infection rate, so that people who can be helped, get that help.

[norwaysaint]

My dad’s got covid19 and in hospital at the minute. In pretty good shape prior to it.

 

Asked my brother about a ‘covid’ party and the wisdom of getting it early. He works in infectious diseases and simply said ‘no’. That’s enough for me. Better to cut off all communication for 3 or 4 weeks and rid it that way, not by infecting everyone.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

And sorry to hear about your dad, hope he shakes it off quickly.

[CB Fry]

Long old list of key workers released overnight.

 

Reckon I could probably take the mick and claim myself as I work in the food industry. I'm not going to but there are loopholes a-plenty as is typical for policy made up on the hoof.

[Batman]

we are not far away from the government paying everyone's wages at 100%.

 

once we beat the disease, the economy will kill us.

[norwaysaint]

we are not far away from the government paying everyone's wages at 100%.

 

once we beat the disease, the economy will kill us.

 

Same as every country. Norway is suffering very heavily, with oil prices and thus the Norwegian krone tumbling. People laid off are on about 60% pay.

 

The state is currently in the process of bailing out Norwegian airlines, which is a company that functions on fast expansion and big debt, but it's a vital company for internal and external travel. Typically they pay little tax in Norway.

[Raging Bull]

https://fullfact.org/online/book-didnt-predict-coronavirus/

[buctootim]

Same as every country. Norway is suffering very heavily, with oil prices and thus the Norwegian krone tumbling. People laid off are on about 60% pay.

 

The state is currently in the process of bailing out Norwegian airlines, which is a company that functions on fast expansion and big debt, but it's a vital company for internal and external travel. Typically they pay little tax in Norway.

 

Norway is in a very different situation to the UK though because of its sovereign wealth fund. Norway has around £180,000 saved up for every man woman and child. By contrast the UK already owes around £30,000 per person and is about to load another huge dollop on top.

 

Agree long term the move away from from oil will be a problem, but gas will continue to be important for another 20 years or so.

[buctootim]

That would clearly be a terrible idea. How on Earth would medical services cope if so many people got sick at exactly the same time? This is all about slowing down the infection rate, so that people who can be helped, get that help.

 

It's moot. The idea is that you isolate the vulnerable and infect those people who are likely to develop no or only very mild symptoms - which is around 85% of those who get infected - mostly the healthy under 60s.

[norwaysaint]

It's moot. The idea is that you isolate the vulnerable and infect those people who are likely to develop no or only very mild symptoms - which is around 85% of those who get infected - mostly the healthy under 60s.

 

It doesn't work like that though. In reality, the more people who get infected, the more people get sick. The numbers would spiral in both those thought to be less vulnerable and it would create a rise in the number of vulnerable people getting infected. It's a bad idea and that's why it's not become a realistic proposition.

[norwaysaint]

Norway is in a very different situation to the UK though because of its sovereign wealth fund. Norway has around £180,000 saved up for every man woman and child. By contrast the UK already owes around £30,000 per person and is about to load another huge dollop on top.

 

Agree long term the move away from from oil will be a problem, but gas will continue to be important for another 20 years or so.

 

Norway does have a fortunate position, but is very vulnerable to fluctuations. A lot of the wealth is invested too.

 

I hate it when the oil business hits a slump for selfish reasons. I teach students going into the offshore industry and when times are good, we get the very best students who need a high grade average to get on the course. When there was a slump, there were lay offs and no employment for most new qualified workers. That meant you had to be an idiot to take that training. So that's what I got in those classes. It had only picked up again in the last two years.

[buctootim]

It doesn't work like that though. In reality, the more people who get infected, the more people get sick. The numbers would spiral in both those thought to be less vulnerable and it would create a rise in the number of vulnerable people getting infected. It's a bad idea and that's why it's not become a realistic proposition.

 

There are ways around that. Those likely to get seriously sick and needing hospital treatment is predictable - because declining lung and immunity function is closely correlated with age and conditions like diabetes and taking immuno-suppressants. You could phase it and offer things like a 'passport' which grants freedom to move and work to those who test positive for antibodies - ie those who have been exposed and recovered.

[JackanorySFC]

It's moot. The idea is that you isolate the vulnerable and infect those people who are likely to develop no or only very mild symptoms - which is around 85% of those who get infected - mostly the healthy under 60s.

 

I simply don't get this. 40% of those hospitalised are aged 20-54? Right now I only know 1 person first hand who has it. A very fit and healthy 26 year old. He is on day 13 now and has was in hospital for 4 of those, it totally wiped him out and still may have long term effects. This utter b0ll0cks about it being "just like the flu for anyone that isn't old" is a serious problem. Also there are already cases of people getting it twice. Do people just not listen to experts anymore or something?

[buctootim]

I simply don't get this. 40% of those hospitalised are aged 20-54? Right now I only know 1 person first hand who has it. A very fit and healthy 26 year old. He is on day 13 now and has was in hospital for 4 of those, it totally wiped him out and still may have long term effects. This utter b0ll0cks about it being "just like the flu for anyone that isn't old" is a serious problem. Also there are already cases of people getting it twice. Do people just not listen to experts anymore or something?

 

Presumably you are referring to the US CDC report? CDC reported 80% of deaths were in the over 65 age group despite accounting for only 31% of cases and 19% of the population. Only 20% of deaths were in the 0-64 age group, and although the CDC report doesnt state this, the large majority of the younger deaths will likely have been in people with underlying health conditions, as has been found in China, Italy and elsewhere. For example the youngest death in the UK was a guy aged 39. He had motor neurone disease and had been given a life expectancy of two years back in June 2018 before coronavirus

 

Most importantly far fewer of the younger people requiring hospital treatment needed intubation. And that is where the capacity crunch is

Edited 20 March, 2020 by buctootim