Coronavirus

[Lighthouse]

3 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

It’s been put out there in the past by SAGE that 25,000 could be the number of yearly covid deaths we have to live with going forwards. 
As always they have moved the goalposts again because of the “we must save everyone” nutters like you. 

It’s not about deaths it’s about people in hospital. The more people go in with Covid, the fewer resources are available to treat other patients, that’s undeniable. So answer me this; what is it that you wanted to do in the next five weeks which is more important than a person having surgery or other treatment.

[whelk]

8 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s not about deaths it’s about people in hospital. The more people go in with Covid, the fewer resources are available to treat other patients, that’s undeniable. So answer me this; what is it that you wanted to do in the next five weeks which is more important than a person having surgery or other treatment.

There is no evidence that anything is going up in concerning numbers. There was an acceptance that cases would go up as restrictions lifted. Now you want to take this as evidence that we need to be uber cautious. 
 

 

[whelk]

10 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s not about deaths it’s about people in hospital. The more people go in with Covid, the fewer resources are available to treat other patients, that’s undeniable. So answer me this; what is it that you wanted to do in the next five weeks which is more important than a person having surgery or other treatment.

Let’s ban alcohol. Doctors treating alcohol related injuries could be spending their time treating other worthy patients. Are you saying your pint is more important than a person’s life?

[RedArmy]

15 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

So answer me this; what is it that you wanted to do in the next five weeks which is more important than a person having surgery or other treatment.

5 weeks? Get real. 
 

The data isn’t going to look any better in 5 weeks time so the idea that there will be a sudden change of heart and a “oh go on then let’s just do it” is fantasy. The extension will be a extended by another month by which time it’ll be approaching the return of schools so there will be “caution” and then it’ll be respiratory season and there’s no way they’ll risk an exit wave during autumn and winter. 
 

So yes there is plenty I’d like to do in the next 9 months. 
 

Did you take measures to avoid close contact with others during the 17/18 flu season when people were being treated on hospital corridor floors and all elective surgery was stopped? 
Or did you carry on about your life being selfish and stopping people having their surgery? 
 

You need to get some fucking perspective. 

Edited 12 June, 2021 by RedArmy

[Turkish]

54 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s not about deaths it’s about people in hospital. The more people go in with Covid, the fewer resources are available to treat other patients, that’s undeniable. So answer me this; what is it that you wanted to do in the next five weeks which is more important than a person having surgery or other treatment.

And they are nearly half what the most cautious modelling said they would be...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/10/hospital-covid-admissions-lockdown-modelling-predictions/amp/

 

 

[Lighthouse]

I need perspective?

You’ve just pulled a big dramatic number like 9 months out of thin air, rather than answer a simple question about what you desperately needed to do in the next five weeks and yes; a lot will change in that period. Namely another 17 million vaccinations being administered, which will cover roughly 75% of the total adult population.

 

Flu seasons are short term and the come and go on their own in accordance with the cold weather. Covid doesn’t do that, it’s perennial. We aren’t talking about putting operations back by three weeks because February was a bit rough for flu, there’s a backlog which has been building on and off for 16 months now. That’s also worse than a few p*ssheads falling off lamp posts.

[Lighthouse]

7 minutes ago, Turkish said:

And they are nearly half what the most cautious modelling said they would be...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/10/hospital-covid-admissions-lockdown-modelling-predictions/amp/

 

 

Yes, that’s the growth at the current rate with our current restrictions. If we start opening up events and venues, which are overwhelmingly popular with young, unvaccinated people, the number of cases and admissions will grow exponentially.

 

Just to be clear - I really, really don’t want this extension. I’ve got tickets to the F1 which, rather typically, is due to start ten hours before a theoretical four week extension would end, at midnight on 19th July. I’m desperate to go but not at the expense of someone’s triple heart bypass.

[RedArmy]

15 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I need perspective?

You’ve just pulled a big dramatic number like 9 months out of thin air, rather than answer a simple question about what you desperately needed to do in the next five weeks and yes; a lot will change in that period. Namely another 17 million vaccinations being administered, which will cover roughly 75% of the total adult population.

 

Flu seasons are short term and the come and go on their own in accordance with the cold weather. Covid doesn’t do that, it’s perennial. We aren’t talking about putting operations back by three weeks because February was a bit rough for flu, there’s a backlog which has been building on and off for 16 months now. That’s also worse than a few p*ssheads falling off lamp posts.

You didn’t answer my question either, must have been too busy being a sanctimonious prick. 

[Lighthouse]

Putting aside the needless insults, go and read my post again. I didn’t answer, I explained why the question isn’t valid. Neither seasonal flu nor whelks example of drunks cracking their heads open are in any way comparable to Covid 19 in either severity or longevity.

I’m not being sanctimonious, you made up that 9 months bit, pure and simple. Covid isn’t seasonal, there’s no evidence at all that we’re suddenly going to be faced with more lockdowns in winter. The worst outbreaks in the world weren't observed in the Arctic tundras around Jaipur and Manaus.

[Turkish]

29 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Yes, that’s the growth at the current rate with our current restrictions. If we start opening up events and venues, which are overwhelmingly popular with young, unvaccinated people, the number of cases and admissions will grow exponentially.

 

Just to be clear - I really, really don’t want this extension. I’ve got tickets to the F1 which, rather typically, is due to start ten hours before a theoretical four week extension would end, at midnight on 19th July. I’m desperate to go but not at the expense of someone’s triple heart bypass.

Don’t you think they’ve also done modelling for when all restrictions are lifted? That’s what the 21/6 was based on

Edited 12 June, 2021 by Turkish

[Lighthouse]

4 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Don’t you think they’ve also done modelling for when all restrictions are lifted? That’s what the 21/6 was based on

Yes, the current roadmap was published on 22nd of February, four months ago, before the D variant was even heard of. These models are like weather forecasts, the further into the future you go, the more effect the variables have and the less accurate they become. Personally, I’m surprised the modelling has been as accurate as it has to allow us to stick to the roadmap this well so far. Picking the June 21st date back then was a bit like saying today that it’s going to be 14 degrees and raining on 12th October.

 

What we’re concerned about now is the graph at the bottom of this article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/57403888

[RedArmy]

Dramatic numbers like 9 months. 

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

I need perspective?

You’ve just pulled a big dramatic number like 9 months out of thin air, rather than answer a simple question about what you desperately needed to do in the next five weeks and yes; a lot will change in that period. Namely another 17 million vaccinations being administered, which will cover roughly 75% of the total adult population.

Not sure where you get your figures from but stats were released last week that said 80% of the adult population have antibodies due to vaccine or previous infection.

That's before we look at the road map that was released in Feb and didn't take into account the success of the vaccination programme.

The road map was also based on one vaccination being circa 60% effective but current studies are showing that one dose is in the region of 80-85% effective.

The number of hospitalisations is key. That number is still very low and predominantly made up of people who have been offered a vaccine but not had one.  Those people are not going to change their minds in the next five weeks!!

[whelk]

If it saves one life then it will be worth it yeah? 

[whelk]

6 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Not sure where you get your figures from but stats were released last week that said 80% of the adult population have antibodies due to vaccine or previous infection.

That's before we look at the road map that was released in Feb and didn't take into account the success of the vaccination programme.

The road map was also based on one vaccination being circa 60% effective but current studies are showing that one dose is in the region of 80-85% effective.

The number of hospitalisations is key. That number is still very low and predominantly made up of people who have been offered a vaccine but not had one.  Those people are not going to change their minds in the next five weeks!!

They don’t want data driven decisions but emotive ones free of any risk of media kickback. You can see many lap it up and whatever goalpost is moved will be shrugged off as they forget quickly. Show the fucking hospitalisation projections please. Of course they won’t just think we wil, all say 1000 will become 30000 regardless of 80% having antibodies and vast majority of young showing mild symptoms. 

[RedArmy]

11 minutes ago, whelk said:

If it saves one life then it will be worth it yeah? 

Stop making things up. 

[Lighthouse]

"Fears," held by somebody in the government, in a scare mongering, click bait article are not evidence. Somebody at The Express 'fears' we're going to have the coldest winter for 50 years. The immigrants in the Daily Mail still give you cancer. Big whoop. When scientists start producing accurate modeling based on real evidence to show that the vaccines don't work, then I'll start to worry.

 

We came up with a plan 4 months ago, 2 months before the D/Indian variant was even in the UK. We've been given all the freedoms back we were promised, right up until this point. Now we're being asked to wait another 4 weeks to be completely free from restrictions because of a variant we couldn't have predicted which is 40% more transmissible. If we still had the Kent variant, we'd be home and dry by now but we don't.

[Lighthouse]

31 minutes ago, whelk said:

If it saves one life then it will be worth it yeah? 

Yes. 9 months of lock down to save one life is exactly what I'm hoping for.

[CollinsDic]

10 hours ago, whelk said:

If it saves one life then it will be worth it yeah? 

And not a mask in sight.

 

[Turkish]

Good to see our leaders sticking to rules 

[Raging Bull]

10 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Yes. 9 months of lock down to save one life is exactly what I'm hoping for.

I’ve not been on here much recently but Is this a joke? You aren’t for real are you? 

What about the countless lives lost to things like suicide from the awful lockdowns ruining businesses? Let alone the abject poverty some children have been forced into. You’re either ignoring this or you don’t care. 
 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30229-1/fulltext

The last time I checked, the average age of death was basically in line with the average in this country. Meanwhile, business owners with so much on the line and to lose are at the end of their tether. 
 

And just for the record, I do not believe that this will be the last lockdown. This will happen again in the winter. 

Edited 13 June, 2021 by Raging Bull

[whelk]

50 minutes ago, Raging Bull said:

I’ve not been on here much recently but Is this a joke? You aren’t for real are you? 

What about the countless lives lost to things like suicide from the awful lockdowns ruining businesses? Let alone the abject poverty some children have been forced into. You’re either ignoring this or you don’t care. 
 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30229-1/fulltext

The last time I checked, the average age of death was basically in line with the average in this country. Meanwhile, business owners with so much on the line and to lose are at the end of their tether. 
 

And just for the record, I do not believe that this will be the last lockdown. This will happen again in the winter. 

Lighthouse is a sympathiser but he was being sarcastic this time.

[Raging Bull]

48 minutes ago, whelk said:

Lighthouse is a sympathiser but he was being sarcastic this time.

Ok. Refer to point 1. I’ve not been on here much recently 

[CollinsDic]

4 hours ago, Turkish said:

Good to see our leaders sticking to rules 

Difficult to stick to the rules when you know they are fake. The mask will always slip.

[whelk]

Patients in mechanical ventilation beds down from 159 to 158 in whole of uk. Worrying trend no doubt

Peak was over 4000 btw 

#datadrivendecisions

Edited 13 June, 2021 by whelk

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, whelk said:

Patients in mechanical ventilation beds down from 159 to 158 in whole of uk. Worrying trend no doubt

Peak was over 4000 btw 

#datadrivendecisions

I think the department of health and social care have lost their minds!

As per the image below (taken from here), they want us to believe that we are already on course to hit over 40k infections per day by early July (that's my guess of the date as they conveniently don't label the scale after the 21st June!).

That would put us on a par, infection wise, with the 2nd of January (a week after the lockdown was introduced!), at a time when barely anyone had received their vaccination.

No idea how they've reached this conclusion!

[The Cat]

10 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I think the department of health and social care have lost their minds!

As per the image below (taken from here), they want us to believe that we are already on course to hit over 40k infections per day by early July (that's my guess of the date as they conveniently don't label the scale after the 21st June!).

That would put us on a par, infection wise, with the 2nd of January (a week after the lockdown was introduced!), at a time when barely anyone had received their vaccination.

No idea how they've reached this conclusion!

In the last few days the rate of increase has already slowed. 40% up on last week compared to being around 80% previously. Obviously none of those stats are ideal but if the rate carries on slowing we shouldn't get anywhere near that many cases.

It's also clearly been proved that the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths has broken by the vaccine. 

Cases aren't irrelevant but they certainly aren't anywhere near as important a metric as they were last year. Surely everyone knows this now?

[whelk]

And infections means fck all. These measures aren’t to stop anyone becoming ill, they are supposedly to stop hospitals being overrun. Why are we not seeing projections of hospital patients (including age range as all over50s now double vaccinated) and then those on ventilation? As far as I can see both are very low and having minor increases. Meanwhile every week another couple of million people get vaccinated assuming they keep to 300k a day

[Lighthouse]

6 minutes ago, The Cat said:

In the last few days the rate of increase has already slowed. 40% up on last week compared to being around 80% previously. Obviously none of those stats are ideal but if the rate carries on slowing we shouldn't get anywhere near that many cases.

It's also clearly been proved that the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths has broken by the vaccine. 

Cases aren't irrelevant but they certainly aren't anywhere near as important a metric as they were last year. Surely everyone knows this now?

As things are, there doesn’t seem to be anything to be alarmed about. Cases have been increasing for around a month but so far patients in hospital have only gone up by around 200 from their minimum of 869 back in May. 
 

Nobody is arguing that we can’t stay as we are, it’s all about what the models predict will happen to the R number if we end all restrictions and infections start to climb at a much faster rate than they are currently.

[Lighthouse]

Just for reference, today we reported 7490 cases and increasing. The last time we had roughly that many and increasing was September 24th. Back then this coincided with 422 admissions and 40 deaths. Today it coincided with 187 admissions and 8 deaths. It’s a crude analysis but the ratio across all three is undoubtedly much higher, so that’s promising.

[Weston Super Saint]

Just another four weeks then!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57464097

Quote

Senior ministers have signed off a decision to delay the lifting of all coronavirus restrictions in England beyond 21 June.

Government sources have told the BBC most current rules will remain for another four weeks after this date.

 

[buctootim]

Different symptoms of Delta might contribute to faster spread rather than greater infectivity.

Suggestion that the Delta variant is spreading faster because the symptoms are more like a heavy cold than previous covid variants so people think they are safe to go out. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

Edited 14 June, 2021 by buctootim

[CollinsDic]

35 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Different symptoms of Delta might contribute to faster spread rather infectivity.

Suggestion that the self variant is spreading faster because the symptoms are more like a heavy cold than previous covid variants so people think they are safe to go out. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

Looks like some people are already safe to go out

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57461693

[Weston Super Saint]

Heard on the radio this afternoon that the delay is being agreed because there are over 2 million over 50s who haven't had the vaccine.

Really? We're delaying so we can protect some selfish cunts that have refused to have the one thing that will protect them!

[aintforever]

3 hours ago, CollinsDic said:

Looks like some people are already safe to go out

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57461693

I'm pretty sure they would all have been tested, they were probably safe to have a gang-bang.

[whelk]

So now it’s is the over 40s that are at risk of hospitalisation. No one noticed it used to be over 50s. Just to confirm are we at war with Eurasia?

[Lighthouse]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Heard on the radio this afternoon that the delay is being agreed because there are over 2 million over 50s who haven't had the vaccine.

Really? We're delaying so we can protect some selfish cunts that have refused to have the one thing that will protect them!

It would be nice if we were allowed to refuse treatment for anyone who chooses not to get vaccinated but apparently that’s not ethical.

[RedArmy]

50 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It would be nice if we were allowed to refuse treatment for anyone who chooses not to get vaccinated but apparently that’s not ethical.

Where do you draw the line? 
 

No nhs treatment for smokers, drinkers, fat people, people with high cholesterol?  

[benjii]

51 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

Where do you draw the line? 
 

No nhs treatment for smokers, drinkers, fat people, people with high cholesterol?  

Sounds good.

[whelk]

53 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

Where do you draw the line? 
 

No nhs treatment for smokers, drinkers, fat people, people with high cholesterol?  

Can’t not treat them just leave them on stretchers in a dusty old room with occasional check by junior doctor. Leave the proper treatment for us elite jabbed people.

[Turkish]

2 hours ago, whelk said:

So now it’s is the over 40s that are at risk of hospitalisation. No one noticed it used to be over 50s. Just to confirm are we at war with Eurasia?

I notice they’re now banging on about young people being worst hit. When they started the vaccine roll out it was all about protecting the vulnerable, now it needs to be everyone. 

[Lighthouse]

1 hour ago, RedArmy said:

Where do you draw the line? 
 

No nhs treatment for smokers, drinkers, fat people, people with high cholesterol?  

It’s a fair question but I would argue that in turning down the vaccine you’ve already refused treatment, so what right do you have then demanding much more prolonged and resource consuming treatment. There’s a difference between people with unhealthy lifestyles and what I would consider to be passive self-harming. If people refuse the vaccine I would ‘defer’ their treatment until we’ve caught up with all the cancer patients who don’t have any choice. It you have to wait six months for a ventilator, well that’s a shame, isn’t it.

[RedArmy]

59 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s a fair question but I would argue that in turning down the vaccine you’ve already refused treatment, so what right do you have then demanding much more prolonged and resource consuming treatment. There’s a difference between people with unhealthy lifestyles and what I would consider to be passive self-harming. If people refuse the vaccine I would ‘defer’ their treatment until we’ve caught up with all the cancer patients who don’t have any choice. It you have to wait six months for a ventilator, well that’s a shame, isn’t it.

I agree completely that those that have refused the vaccine are selfish cunts but I’m not sure I would go as far as saying they don’t deserve treatment. 
 

[Weston Super Saint]

2 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

I agree completely that those that have refused the vaccine are selfish cunts but I’m not sure I would go as far as saying they don’t deserve treatment. 
 

They can have all the treatment they need, right up until someone who has had the vaccine needs it, then they can go and wait in the corridor.

It's a moot point anyway as the whole country gets just another couple of weeks to make sure they stay safe.

[RedArmy]

12 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

They can have all the treatment they need, right up until someone who has had the vaccine needs it, then they can go and wait in the corridor.

It's a moot point anyway as the whole country gets just another couple of weeks to make sure they stay safe.

It’s not a moot point. Half the reason for the delay is because of people refusing the vaccine. 
The other half being a combination of the government not closing the border with india, and selfish people going back and forward during a pandemic. 

[Smirking_Saint]

16 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

It’s not a moot point. Half the reason for the delay is because of people refusing the vaccine. 
The other half being a combination of the government not closing the border with india, and selfish people going back and forward during a pandemic. 

You can also argue that the government have been wanker than wank at debunking the vaccine myths... similar to mask wearing etc

There has been basically zero spend on an advertising info campaign on any of these things which is surely a bigger need than something as arbitrary as fucking brexit (I don't want to get involved in a brexit chat, just comparing the two)

[Lighthouse]

7 minutes ago, Smirking_Saint said:

You can also argue that the government have been wanker than wank at debunking the vaccine myths... similar to mask wearing etc

There has been basically zero spend on an advertising info campaign on any of these things which is surely a bigger need than something as arbitrary as fucking brexit (I don't want to get involved in a brexit chat, just comparing the two)

The vaccine myths are completely, utterly, totally, unequivocally debunked. Some people however are just beyond help. Anyone wittering on about Bill Gates, 5G and ‘the great global reset’ whereby the masses stop er… going to nightclubs for a bit?? … is clearly devoid of all logic, reason and commonsense.

[Smirking_Saint]

57 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

The vaccine myths are completely, utterly, totally, unequivocally debunked. Some people however are just beyond help. Anyone wittering on about Bill Gates, 5G and ‘the great global reset’ whereby the masses stop er… going to nightclubs for a bit?? … is clearly devoid of all logic, reason and commonsense.

And yet theres still those that whitter on about untested poisons etc

Which although isn’t as batshit, its equally as damaging and Ive not seen enough counter evidence from the wider medical community, other than just saying ‘don’t be stupid etc’

To be clear, I’m pro vaccine, but this feels like the brexit debate, where one side is pushing the agenda (anti-vax) and the other is basically just ignoring it and hopes it goes away (pro-vax)

 

[Lighthouse]

12 minutes ago, Smirking_Saint said:

And yet theres still those that whitter on about untested poisons etc

Which although isn’t as batshit, its equally as damaging and Ive not seen enough counter evidence from the wider medical community, other than just saying ‘don’t be stupid etc’

To be clear, I’m pro vaccine, but this feels like the brexit debate, where one side is pushing the agenda (anti-vax) and the other is basically just ignoring it and hopes it goes away (pro-vax)

 

This isn't aimed at you but there's plenty of evidence out there for anyone willing to read it and when people already have their minds made up, you can lead a horse to water... I don't want to trigger another religious argument on this thread, but it's a bit like trying to disprove somebody's god. If there's no evidence for something then it's very hard to debunk.

[Fan The Flames]

15 hours ago, CollinsDic said:

Looks like some people are already safe to go out

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57461693

Anyone can meet in groups of up to 30 outside, not just plotting politicians.