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whelk
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Some positive noises coming out today. Firstly there is tentative evidence that the AZ vaccine reduces the risk of transmission. Secondly a professor on BBC news was just reporting that some people who have given a positive PCR test after being vaccinated may not be infectious.

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35 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Some positive noises coming out today. Firstly there is tentative evidence that the AZ vaccine reduces the risk of transmission. Secondly a professor on BBC news was just reporting that some people who have given a positive PCR test after being vaccinated may not be infectious.

PCR tests just detect the presence of the targets agent's  DNA in the body. It can't differentiate between active infections and dead bacteria viruses still circulating. A while ago I tested positive using PCR despite having had antibiotics six months earlier which resolved the infection     

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3 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

We had our NHS letters today and I think we have appointments for both our doses but the online booking system is a pile of dogshit.

You choose your locations and date and time by put by the time you get to the ‘confirm’ page the appointments are no longer available so you have to go back to the start and enter it all again and by the time you get to ‘confirm’ the appointments are no longer available and...

I have received over a dozen text messages confirming my appointments followed by one saying that they’re cancelled. There is a web page which talks about reference numbers but the are blue text on a blue background and you wouldn’t see them if you didn’t know they were there. 
 

My wife got as far as the ‘confirm’ page but mistyped her contact details so didn’t confirm the booking but when she went back to the start it asked for booking references which she hadn’t been given yet so she was stuck in a lockout loop.

In the end we rang the 119 number and got put through to a young lady working from home on a bad phone line. That was painful but eventually we got there. It turned out that we did have bookings but no way of knowing what they were.

I have received five emails. The first two tell me that my second appointment has been cancelled. The third tells me my dates. The next two tell me that my second appointment has been cancelled. None of the four cancellation emails state the details of the appointment that it thinks has been cancelled.

Itis one of the most amateurish systems it has ever been my misfortune to meet.

 

The booking system does sound quite poor but I'm sure they'll sort those problems out as time passes.  In the mean time I'm quite prepared to swap with you and take your place.  I'm under 50 though so you may be waiting till the summer but, and here's the good bit, the booking system is bound to be the dogs bollocks by the time you're eligible.

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5 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

The booking system does sound quite poor but I'm sure they'll sort those problems out as time passes.  In the mean time I'm quite prepared to swap with you and take your place.  I'm under 50 though so you may be waiting till the summer but, and here's the good bit, the booking system is bound to be the dogs bollocks by the time you're eligible.

We’ll all get there eventually but I was not just whinging. When your time does come it’s best to be prepared. There’s the simple thing of getting the colour contrast on the texts right. What it needs is to take all the personal and contact details at the beginning so that when you do get to ‘confirm’ you can click it prompts. Otherwise they’ve sold your choice to someone else and you have to go down the snake and back to the beginning.

My first dose is next Wednesday and the second is 11 weeks and 3 days later.

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7 hours ago, buctootim said:

PCR tests just detect the presence of the targets agent's  DNA in the body. It can't differentiate between active infections and dead bacteria viruses still circulating. A while ago I tested positive using PCR despite having had antibiotics six months earlier which resolved the infection     

TBH I thought that was the case anyway, so I'm not entirely sure why this news is different but someone called 'professor' seemed pretty optimistic about it.

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Odd, as I'm sure we were told last week that the virus was 'man-made' by 'some Dinlo' ;) 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55996728

Quote

Peter Ben Embarek, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) mission, said it was "extremely unlikely" that the virus leaked from a lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

Experts believe the virus is likely to have originated in animals, before spreading to humans, but they are not sure how.

 

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Got my first jab today.

Very well organised, in and out in about 15 minutes. Steady stream of people, probably doing about 1 every 2 or 3 minutes.

Just shows what happens when you let the NHS get on with it rather than outsourcing it to some Tory MP's window cleaner. 

 

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1 hour ago, LGTL said:

Anyone else completely sick to the back teeth of this? Not just me? Good. 

The joke’s starting to wear a bit thin, I’ll give you that. I keep looking in the news for any hope of change. 1049 deaths today, down 1/3 on last Monday so that’s something, I guess.

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2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

The joke’s starting to wear a bit thin, I’ll give you that. I keep looking in the news for any hope of change. 1049 deaths today, down 1/3 on last Monday so that’s something, I guess.

I find it odd that more are dying each day than in March when at least those poor sods were unaware and carrying on as usual. Medication has supposedly lowered the risk of death and everyone is fully aware of precautions of distancing etc yet more than ever are dying.

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4 minutes ago, whelk said:

I find it odd that more are dying each day than in March when at least those poor sods were unaware and carrying on as usual. Medication has supposedly lowered the risk of death and everyone is fully aware of precautions of distancing etc yet more than ever are dying.

Yep, my thoughts. Perhaps the new strain is more deadly than we're told. 

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49 minutes ago, whelk said:

I find it odd that more are dying each day than in March when at least those poor sods were unaware and carrying on as usual. Medication has supposedly lowered the risk of death and everyone is fully aware of precautions of distancing etc yet more than ever are dying.

I think it’s more the fact that the Kent strain is more transmissible, combined with Christmas being a giant, super spreader event. The deaths seem reasonably in proportion with the number of admissions, compared to April. Hospital admissions were 30% higher at their peak this time but the spike was also significantly wider. I believe somebody said the Kent strain raised the R number by around 0.7 compared to the classic version, which looks plausible given the data we’ve seen.

 

Has anyone got any data for deaths per hospitalisation on both spikes? Obviously deaths per case would be the ideal ratio but with so little testing last April that’s pretty much impossible.

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All info available here

Contains all the info on daily deaths but also has the cumulative total here 

The peak of 'deaths in hospital' appears to be very slightly lower during the second wave than the first - 847 on 19th Jan Vs 900 on 8th April (taken from sheet titled "Tab 1 deaths by region").

 

Edited by Weston Super Saint
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The infections to deaths rate is the best measure but we’ll never know the true rate for the first round last year because there wasn’t the random sample testing and mass testing. Best proxy is covid hospitalisations to deaths which, from memory,is better this round - ie admissions have been higher whilst deaths are about the same, That indicates better treatment . 

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8 minutes ago, buctootim said:

The infections to deaths rate is the best measure but we’ll never know the true rate for the first round last year because there wasn’t the random sample testing and mass testing. Best proxy is covid hospitalisations to deaths which, from memory,is better this round - ie admissions have been higher whilst deaths are about the same, That indicates better treatment . 

Surely all cause mortality over time is the best measure?

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1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Surely all cause mortality over time is the best measure?

Not by itself, because mortality does vary year to year due to other causes like very hot summers / cold winters / flu epidemics etc. Also you get the covid related but non covid deaths like increased cancer deaths due to cancelled screenings etc. But it is a useful check, if things appeared way out of whack you might try and delve into the reasons why.      

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46 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

1001 deaths reported today, nearly half the 1820 reported on Tuesday, typically the worst day, three weeks ago. Lowest positive tests since mid October too.

That’s all good news.

On a positive note we had our vaccinations this afternoon at the NHS vaccination centre in Oakley Road. This was the Astra Zeneca version and so far so good except for a bruised feeling in my upper arm. It was only an hour ago mind you.

They were well organised with plenty of marshals and a bit of a wait before going in to he vaccination pods. The whole process took about 35 minutes.

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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

1001 deaths reported today, nearly half the 1820 reported on Tuesday, typically the worst day, three weeks ago. Lowest positive tests since mid October too.

Cases are going down extremely fast despite the increase in testing which is amazing news. Still quite a high number lf people in hospital, although this is also getting lower because a lot less people are being admitted every day.

Deaths should start reducing quite a lot once the vaccines have kicked in for the oldest and most vulnerable. It will look a lot better in a few weeks. 

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I got a text on Monday to say I’ll be getting an appointment for a vaccine in a few weeks and where it would happen. I assumed it was either a scam or a mistake as thought it’s be months yet but two other people at work in my age group also got them, both called the doctors surgery to confirm.  it was indeed correct, they’ve done all of the 1-4 groups with 95% take up. Theyre doing 1800 vaccinations a day so rattling through them. Incredible stuff. 

Edited by Turkish
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24 minutes ago, Turkish said:

I got a text on Monday to say I’ll be getting an appointment for a vaccine in a few weeks and where it would happen. I assumed it was either a scam or a mistake as thought it’s be months yet but two other people at work in my age group also for them, both called the doctors surgery to confirm.  it was indeed correct, they’ve done all of the 1-4 groups with 95% take up. There doing 1800 vaccinations a day so rattling through them. Incredible stuff. 

Nice one 👍

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Yesterday was an interesting time for anyone contemplating a holiday this year.

In the morning on Radio 4 Grant Shapps told us that nobody should be booking holidays either domestically or internationally. A few hours later we had Matt Hancock saying that he'd booked his in Cornwall.

Then at lunchtime a No. 10 spokesman said that booking was "a choice for individuals" to be followed by Boris at 5pm "just too early" to do anything.

Nothing like a clear coherent policy is there?

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Just now, ecuk268 said:

Yesterday was an interesting time for anyone contemplating a holiday this year.

In the morning on Radio 4 Grant Shapps told us that nobody should be booking holidays either domestically or internationally. A few hours later we had Matt Hancock saying that he'd booked his in Cornwall.

Then at lunchtime a No. 10 spokesman said that booking was "a choice for individuals" to be followed by Boris at 5pm "just too early" to do anything.

Nothing like a clear coherent policy is there?

It isn't a policy. It's a few individuals giving their opinion. 

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36 minutes ago, ecuk268 said:

With millions of people looking to take a holiday, shouldn't there be a policy or at least some clear guidance?

Why do people need to be spoon fed everything? Use your common sense. If you're happy booking a holiday do it, if you're not don. Just but be aware it might not happen. We've got two weeks booked in August, we pushed it back from last year, most decent travel companies will give you a refund or free amendment. Boo hoo, no one has told me what i am an aren't allowed to do. I cant think for myself. A frigging policy to tell you if you should book a holiday or not, FFS

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10 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Why do people need to be spoon fed everything? Use your common sense. If you're happy booking a holiday do it, if you're not don. Just but be aware it might not happen. We've got two weeks booked in August, we pushed it back from last year, most decent travel companies will give you a refund or free amendment. Boo hoo, no one has told me what i am an aren't allowed to do. I cant think for myself. A frigging policy to tell you if you should book a holiday or not, FFS

Absolutely. No time for Hancock generally but being asked the question everyone wants to know. Work it out you twats. Pandemic has taught many people nothing.

Tell us about Christmas Boris. Oh wait things may change. Why the fuck do they think someone will go on record saying holidays start June 6th. 

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2 minutes ago, whelk said:

And anyone who books anywhere and gets fucked over cannot complain. Manage your own risk.

Exactly. We've moved out holiday twice, it was originally August last year, pushed back to Feb (we were meant to be going to Mexico on saturday FFS) now pushed it back again to August. Free of charge each time, no problem, can so it again if we cant travel in August. We also had a week booked in June to Sorrento which we got a full refund on with days of the cancellation. If you use a decent company and a bit of common sense you wont have any problems. 

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1 hour ago, ecuk268 said:

Yesterday was an interesting time for anyone contemplating a holiday this year.

In the morning on Radio 4 Grant Shapps told us that nobody should be booking holidays either domestically or internationally. A few hours later we had Matt Hancock saying that he'd booked his in Cornwall.

Then at lunchtime a No. 10 spokesman said that booking was "a choice for individuals" to be followed by Boris at 5pm "just too early" to do anything.

Nothing like a clear coherent policy is there?

All over the place as usual.

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3 minutes ago, mack rill said:

Got the phone call last Sunday in QA Monday morning the Pfizer Jab, no side affects yet, starting to wonder if she forgot to load the shot!🤢 

lad i know in Bournemouth had a jab on saturday was really poorly for a couple of days, okay now. Others i know have been fine. 

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2 minutes ago, whelk said:

Why don’t the government hurry and tell us what we can do at Christmas? I am trying to work out what size turkey to buy and all this dawdling isn’t helping.

Have they given us a policy for what size turkeys are appropriate at Christmas? It's not clear. 

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2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

You can book whatever you want, just don’t start crying about the government if it gets cancelled or you’re unable to travel when it comes to D-day.

Exactly. 
 

Ive booked 4 this year because they’re cheap. They all carry the option of a voucher for future travel if I cancel. I don’t need the Government to tell me I might miss out on them, in fact one looks like it’s gone already (March). The alternative is waiting for Hancock or Boris to give the go ahead and watch the prices go through the roof then. 

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4 hours ago, Turkish said:

Why do people need to be spoon fed everything? Use your common sense. If you're happy booking a holiday do it, if you're not don. Just but be aware it might not happen. We've got two weeks booked in August, we pushed it back from last year, most decent travel companies will give you a refund or free amendment. Boo hoo, no one has told me what i am an aren't allowed to do. I cant think for myself. A frigging policy to tell you if you should book a holiday or not, FFS

Indeed. It's almost as if journos ask these loaded questions just to try and catch the politicians out rather than out of any genuine interest in the subject matter...

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4 minutes ago, trousers said:

Indeed. It's almost as if journos ask these loaded questions just to try and catch the politicians out rather than out of any genuine interest in the subject matter...

That’s exactly what they do, then divs like soggy lap it all up taking it as them being vindicated. During the first lockdown Countless morons ringing in TV or radio shows going on about how the guidance wasn’t clear for their personal situation. Some people expect everyone in the country to be given their own personal Covid handbook with it all spelt out for them specifically for their own individual circumstances.

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3 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Exactly. 
 

Ive booked 4 this year because they’re cheap. They all carry the option of a voucher for future travel if I cancel. I don’t need the Government to tell me I might miss out on them, in fact one looks like it’s gone already (March). The alternative is waiting for Hancock or Boris to give the go ahead and watch the prices go through the roof then. 

Then everyone will bleat on about how the evil tories have ruined their summer because they promised they could go on holiday on 5th May.

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I do love a bit of irony. The people I know who are the most anti-Tory (not just on this thread) appear to be the most aggrieved that they haven’t instructed them on exactly how to live their lives. It’d make a great phone in question for the BBC’s daily briefings; "prime minister, what will the infection rates be like in Faliraki between 19-26 August?"

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10 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

I do love a bit of irony. The people I know who are the most anti-Tory (not just on this thread) appear to be the most aggrieved that they haven’t instructed them on exactly how to live their lives. It’d make a great phone in question for the BBC’s daily briefings; "prime minister, what will the infection rates be like in Faliraki between 19-26 August?"

The biggest cry babies seem to be Tories from what I can see. Charles Walker calls for ‘route back to normality:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1396087/summer-holidays-2021-travel-warning-coronavirus-charles-walker-shapps-latest-vn

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Coronavirus

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