Coronavirus

[sadoldgit]

Still looking for a fight? Really, give it a rest. If you weren’t so eager to have an argument you would realise I was saying they have closed their schools and are still operating a health service so to that extent they have coped with closing the schools.

 

How you have turned this into a statement about them coping with the virus only you will know.

[egg]

~7k deaths world wide today but the UK is going to have 250k on its own? That being the best case scenario!

blimey

 

Don't shoot the messenger, and don't judge the size of the iceberg by the size of its tip.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I’ve just got back from a dog walk down Poole quay. Popped my head into a few boozers (about 2/3rds were open), they all said “we’re ****ed”. One landlord who I’m very friendly with told me that the brewery CEO called today to check in. My mate told him unless we get help from the brewery (they’re tenants) the virus will finish them. The CEO’s reply “it’ll finish the brewery”. This from a company that’s been brewing over 150 years. Multiply that by thousands of business and I dread to think what towns will look like in 6 months time.

 

 

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[sadoldgit]

I think you need to stop projecting your own selfishness on other people.

 

If the schools shut I'm absolutely fine - I work for a big company who have already got us all working from home so I'll be able to manage, and actually cover it while the missus can go to work.

 

My views about school closures have absolutely nothing to do with my own situation and everything to do with what I've read around the topic and the decisions the government are making. Your little digs about me and my children just show how pathetic you are, but you've done this to me before so no surprise.

 

I suggest I've thought about it a little more than you whose entire analysis of the situation is Boris is evil so let's do the opposite of what he says because boo-hiss the Tories the Tories.

 

You are over reacting. Why M I being selfish? Because I went to a supermarket? Because I don’t think stockpiling is a good thing?

I think you will find that a great many people have been less than impressed with the way that the government have dealt with the situation so far, but just pin it on me eh?

[sadoldgit]

I’ve just got back from a dog walk down Poole quay. Popped my head into a few boozers (about 2/3rds were open), they all said “we’re ****ed”. One landlord who I’m very friendly with told me that the brewery CEO called today to check in. My mate told him unless we get help from the brewery (they’re tenants) the virus will finish them. The CEO’s reply “it’ll finish the brewery”. This from a company that’s been brewing over 150 years. Multiply that by thousands of business and I dread to think what towns will look like in 6 months time.

 

 

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My local has cut the price of its draught beer to £3.50 in an effort to keep its custom. Fortunately it is privately owned so hopefully they will ride it out. Too many pubs around here have closed already.

[Batman]

I’ve just got back from a dog walk down Poole quay. Popped my head into a few boozers (about 2/3rds were open), they all said “we’re ****ed”. One landlord who I’m very friendly with told me that the brewery CEO called today to check in. My mate told him unless we get help from the brewery (they’re tenants) the virus will finish them. The CEO’s reply “it’ll finish the brewery”. This from a company that’s been brewing over 150 years. Multiply that by thousands of business and I dread to think what towns will look like in 6 months time.

 

 

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Some nice pubs around there, assuming you mean where Lord Nelson's is?

[buctootim]

I’ve just got back from a dog walk down Poole quay. Popped my head into a few boozers (about 2/3rds were open), they all said “we’re ****ed”. One landlord who I’m very friendly with told me that the brewery CEO called today to check in. My mate told him unless we get help from the brewery (they’re tenants) the virus will finish them. The CEO’s reply “it’ll finish the brewery”. This from a company that’s been brewing over 150 years. Multiply that by thousands of business and I dread to think what towns will look like in 6 months time

 

Don’t doubt it. Airlines, clubs, pubs and restaurants are ****ed. Netflix and amazon are quids in

Edited 16 March, 2020 by buctootim

[whelk]

I’ve just got back from a dog walk down Poole quay. Popped my head into a few boozers (about 2/3rds were open), they all said “we’re ****ed”. One landlord who I’m very friendly with told me that the brewery CEO called today to check in. My mate told him unless we get help from the brewery (they’re tenants) the virus will finish them. The CEO’s reply “it’ll finish the brewery”. This from a company that’s been brewing over 150 years. Multiply that by thousands of business and I dread to think what towns will look like in 6 months time.

 

 

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They found the money to prop the banks up in 2008. They need to find the money for the pubs and others in leisure industry. Going to be truly decimated and leave so many on the breadline.

[CB Fry]

Still looking for a fight? Really, give it a rest. If you weren’t so eager to have an argument you would realise I was saying they have closed their schools and are still operating a health service so to that extent they have coped with closing the schools.

 

How you have turned this into a statement about them coping with the virus only you will know.

You were suggesting people were equating looking for childcare as comparable to dying of the virus for lack of a respirator. I don't need a fight just pointing out the absolute horsesh it you type.

[sadoldgit]

You were suggesting people were equating looking for childcare as comparable to dying of the virus for lack of a respirator. I don't need a fight just pointing out the absolute horsesh it you type.

 

No I wasn’t. It is all in your head.

[CB Fry]

They found the money to prop the banks up in 2008. They need to find the money for the pubs and others in leisure industry. Going to be truly decimated and leave so many on the breadline.

The government are weaseling around at the moment, with "suggestions" and "recommendations" which gives them room to swerve when businesses shut down and people are laid off.

 

If this goes the way it's looking this virus could be a social revolutionary act, hollowing out businesses and infrastructure and jobs.

 

After that, the question is then what?

 

I think the answer might well be riots in the summer.

[Weston Super Saint]

You are over reacting. Why M I being selfish? Because I went to a supermarket? Because I don’t think stockpiling is a good thing?

 

Don't food banks stockpile?

 

Spain having to nationalise private healthcare doesn't look like a country that is 'coping' to be fair :

 

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-16/spanish-government-puts-private-healthcare-firms-at-the-orders-of-the-regions.html

[CB Fry]

No I wasn’t. It is all in your head.

 

Read that back. Again and again and again. Utterly despicable.

 

Yes, it is inconvenient having to find child care. More so having to be hooked up to a respirator in a hospital corridor (if they can find you one). Even more so being dead.

 

They cope in other countries don’t they?

 

Hey, you're the good guy because you hate Boris, right?

[sadoldgit]

I was saying it was inconvenient, but far preferable than having more people getting sick.

How is that selfish? You need to calm down.

[sadoldgit]

Read that back. Again and again and again. Utterly despicable.

 

 

 

Hey, you're the good guy because you hate Boris, right?

 

Ok. Enough.

[CB Fry]

I was saying it was inconvenient, but far preferable than having more people getting sick.

How is that selfish? You need to calm down.

You said dead not sick.

[RedArmy]

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the week we are in full lockdown. They’ll introduce it slowly day by day, hence the daily press conferences.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Some nice pubs around there, assuming you mean where Lord Nelson's is?

 

Yes. The Nelson is pretty unique as it’s become a heavy rock bar and is busy all year round. The rest are incredibly seasonal, struggling to get by until April-Sept. This has come at the worst possible time for the town.

 

 

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[CB Fry]

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the week we are in full lockdown. They’ll introduce it slowly day by day, hence the daily press conferences.

The theme of tomorrow's press conference now needs to be the financial support for the businesses and individuals impacted by the announcements in today's press conference.

[Jonnyboy]

BoJo is obviously one of GM's snowflakes.

 

Playing a blinder.

[Lighthouse]

Don’t doubt it. Airlines, clubs, pubs and restaurants are ****ed. Netflix and amazon are quids in

 

There's a certain low cost, Irish airline, who shall remain nameless, where things may be particularly difficult. Many of their employees are on zero hour contracts. Even if the government does give airlines a short term grant to help keep them afloat, those employees wont see a penny from a company who made one billion Euros profit last year.

 

A tough time for a lot of industries. Wish I'd invested in Andrex, Dettol, PornHub and whichever company makes ventilators.

[sadoldgit]

You said dead not sick.

 

Sick, dead. My point is surely finding childcare is not as bad as the possible alternatives. Stop being so sensitive.

I’m not going to apologise for going out to get food for my wife and I. As one of the more mobile oldies I am also on the list of people in the village who can go and get provisions for others. We have a couple up the road who have just come back from Italy and are self isolating. I expect I will be shopping for them later in the week. But yeah, I’m selfish. Still, at 66 with a heart condition, you might not have to worry about me in a few weeks time.

[whelk]

Dow Jones down nearly 3000 today. There goes the pensions

[Saint_clark]

So how are all the hospitals all round Europe and in NYC operating?

 

They're not, when I last checked Italy's mortality rate a few days ago it was around 7%, can't imagine it's too different now.

 

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[benjii]

https://amp.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?__twitter_impression=true

[shurlock]

https://amp.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?__twitter_impression=true

 

If true, it’s a good thing that the government u-turned or escalated it’s response -depending on your perspective- as quickly as it did. Still it’s a concern you can’t get a routine test done as quickly as you can in countries like South Korea that are leading the way.

Edited 17 March, 2020 by shurlock

[benjii]

If true, it’s a good thing that the government u-turned or escalated it’s response -depending on your perspective- as quickly as it did. Still it’s a concern you can’t get a routine test done as quickly as you can in countries like South Korea that are leading the way.

 

Indeed. If we accept it's lock-down now and ride it out as best as possible then, to some extent, that's the easy part. The real issue now is how to avoid material adverse societal damage and economic ruin and how to get effective vaccine to people ASAP. And by "people" we need to consider the whole world or this will decimate sub-saharan Africa and South America which, mercifully, seem to have largely escaped so far.

[Batman]

[hypochondriac]

If true, it’s a good thing that the government u-turned or escalated it’s response -depending on your perspective- as quickly as it did. Still it’s a concern you can’t get a routine test done as quickly as you can in countries like South Korea that are leading the way.

Tbf I don't think you can get a routine test as quickly in any other country in the world if you're using South Korea as an example.

[Batman]

[benjii]

 

And when you’re finished with that you can scroll down and hear about how Shariah law is set to “control the USA”.

[Batman]

And when you’re finished with that you can scroll down and hear about how Shariah law is set to “control the USA”.

 

 

I dont see that, must be your cached search throwing up suggestions

[Guided Missile]

He's been reading my posts.

[shurlock]

He's been reading my posts.

 

Has Johnson called you up yet to help him make 30,000 ventilators from scratch? I hope two weeks is enough time.

Edited 17 March, 2020 by shurlock

[benjii]

Has Johnson called you up yet to help him make 30,000 ventilators from scratch? I hope two weeks is enough time.

 

GM’s got his best men on it, but they are focusing their efforts on flu for now.

[egg]

Bless him. Sadly there'll always be a few idiots who refuse to accept what's actually going on. I mean, international governments are all in the business of overreacting and decimating their economies aren't they.

[shurlock]

GM’s got his best men on it, but they are focusing their efforts on flu for now.

 

[badgerx16]

 

I dont see that, must be your cached search throwing up suggestions

Scroll down, it came up as the third article for me.

[badgerx16]

He's been reading my posts.

Well, that explains it.

[Plastic]

Bless him. Sadly there'll always be a few idiots who refuse to accept what's actually going on. I mean, international governments are all in the business of overreacting and decimating their economies aren't they.

 

Not saying I agree with it, I’m not really in a position to give an opinion, however he seems to have a rational and reasoned argument. It’s certainly not a sensationalist message.

[sadoldgit]

They're not, when I last checked Italy's mortality rate a few days ago it was around 7%, can't imagine it's too different now.

 

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I did say operating as in open and working. I didn’t say coping.

[Guided Missile]

What the WHO DG said was “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” - which is a very different thing. If you tested a random population of say 50,000 people you would detect far more cases which would give you a different death rate.

 

 

 

Don't disagree. The main problem with COVID19 compared with flu is its new, the data is lacking so countries are, sensibly, operating on the precautionary principle. That is what is causing the disruption

 

Great post...

[norwaysaint]

This message from the Norwegian authorities encouraging students abroad to come home made me laugh, just a little dig in there:

 

"This applies especially if you are staying in a country with poorly developed health services. This also applies for countries with poorly developed collective infrastructure, for example the USA, where it can be difficult to get transport to the airport if you don't have a car. The same applies if you don't have health insurance."

 

[sadoldgit]

Just been to see my GP. He is the heart respiratory specialist in the surgery. Said it is crazy that schools went back after half term as they are “a breeding ground for the virus.” Not nearly enough respirators. Doesn’t matter how many more they make as they require 1-1 care and not enough staff. I have been upgraded to 70 plus at risk because of heart condition. Future consultations will by phone. Temperature and basic health question check on way into surgery, which makes sense. Tough decisions will be made about those given hospital beds.

[sadoldgit]

From our local village Facebook page, people have been reported knocking on doors saying they are from the council and offering to buy groceries, only to do a runner with the money. It didn’t take the scum bags long to surface.

[shurlock]

This Is How the Coronavirus Will Destroy the Economy

 

This once-in-a-century pandemic is hitting a world economy saddled with record levels of debt.

 

By Ruchir Sharma

 

Though the Federal Reserve moved over the weekend to slash rates and buy treasuries, markets around the world fell on Monday anyway. The coronavirus threatens to set off financial contagion in a world economy with very different vulnerabilities than on the eve of the global financial crisis, 12 years ago.

 

In key ways the world is now as or more deeply in debt as it was when the last big crisis hit. But the largest and most risky pools of debt have shifted — from households and banks in the United States, which were restrained by regulators after the crisis, to corporations all over the world.

 

As businesses deal with the prospect of a sudden stop in their cash flows, the most exposed are a relatively new generation of companies that already struggle to pay their loans. This class includes the “zombies”— companies that earn too little even to make interest payments on their debt, and survive only by issuing new debt.

 

The dystopian reality of deserted airports, empty trains and thinly occupied restaurants is already badly hurting economic activity. The longer the pandemic lasts, the greater the risk that the sharp downturn morphs into a financial crisis with zombie companies starting a chain of defaults just like subprime mortgages did in 2008.

 

 

Over the last century, recessions have almost always been started by a sustained period of higher interest rates. Never a virus: The damage such contagions inflicted on the world economy typically lasted no more than three months. Now this once-in-a-century pandemic is hitting a world economy saddled with record levels of debt.

 

Central banks around the world are waking up to the prospect that the cash crunch can beget a financial crisis, as in 2008. That’s why the Federal Reserve took aggressive easing measures on Sunday that were straight out of the 2008 crisis playbook. While it is unclear whether the actions of the Fed will be enough to prevent the markets from panicking further, it’s worth asking: Why does the financial system feel so vulnerable again?

 

 

Around 1980, the world’s debts started rising fast as interest rates began falling and financial deregulation made it easier to lend. Debt tripled to a historic peak of more than three times the size of the global economy on the eve of 2008 crisis. Debt fell that year, but record low interest rates soon fueled a new run of borrowing.

 

The easy money policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, and matched by central banks around the world, were designed to keep economies growing and to stimulate recovery from the crisis. Instead, much of that money went into the financial economy, including stocks, bonds and cheap credit to unprofitable companies.

As the economic expansion continued, year after year, lenders grew increasingly lax, extending cheap loans to companies with questionable finances. Today the global debt burden is again at an all-time high.

 

The level of debt in America’s corporate sector amounts to 75 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, breaking the previous record set in 2008. Among large American companies, debt burdens are precariously high in the auto, hospitality and transportation sectors — industries taking a direct hit from the coronavirus.

 

Hidden within the $16 trillion corporate debt market are many potential troublemakers, including the zombies. They are the natural spawn of a long period of record low interest rates, which has sent investors on a restless hunt for debt products that offer higher reward, with higher risk.

 

Zombies now account for 16 percent of all the publicly traded companies in the United States, and more than 10 percent in Europe, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the bank for central banks. A look at the data reveals that zombies are especially prevalent in commodity industries like mining, coal and oil, which may spell upheavals to come for the shale oil industry, now a critical driver of the American economy.

 

Zombies are not the only potential source of trouble. To avoid regulations imposed on public companies since 2008, many have gone private in deals that typically saddle the company with huge debts. The average American company owned by a private equity firm has debts equal to six times its annual earnings, a level twice what ratings agencies consider “junk.”

 

Signs of debt stress are now multiplying in industries impacted by the coronavirus, including transportation and leisure, auto and, perhaps worst of all, oil. Slammed on one side by fear that the coronavirus will collapse demand, and on the other by fears of a supply glut, oil prices have fallen to below $35 a barrel — far too low for many oil companies to meet their debt and interest payments.

 

Though investors always demand higher returns to buy bonds issued by financially shaky companies, the premium they demand on U.S. junk debt has nearly doubled since mid-February. By last week the premium they demand on the junk debt of oil companies was nearing levels seen in a recession.

 

Though the world has yet to see a virus-induced recession, this is now a rare pandemic. The direct effect on economic activity will be magnified not only by its impact on balky debtors, but also by the impact of failing companies on the bloated financial markets.

 

When markets fall, millions of investors feel less wealthy and cut back on spending. The economy slows. The bigger markets get, relative to the economy, the larger this negative “wealth effect.” And thanks again to seemingly endless promises of easy money, markets have never been bigger. Since 1980 the global financial markets (mainly stocks and bonds) have quadrupled to four times the size of the global economy, above the previous record highs set in 2008.

 

On Wall Street, bulls still hold out hope that the worst can pass quickly and point to the encouraging developments in China. The first cases were reported there on Dec. 31, and the rate of growth in new cases peaked on Feb. 13, just seven weeks later. After early losses, China’s stock market bounced back and the economy seemed to do the same. But the latest data, released today on retail sales and fixed investment, suggest the Chinese economy is set to contract this quarter.

 

While China is no longer center stage, as the virus spreads worldwide there are renewed fears that the crisis could circle back to its shores by hurting demand for exports. Over the last decade China’s corporate debt swelled fourfold to over $20 trillion — the biggest binge in the world. The International Monetary Fund estimates that one-tenth of this debt is in zombie firms, which rely on government-directed lending to stay alive.

 

In other parts of the world, including the United States, calls are growing for policymakers to offer similar state support to the fragile corporate sector. No matter what the policymakers do, the outcome is now up to the coronavirus, and how soon its spread starts to slow.

 

The longer the coronavirus continues to spread at its current pace, the more likely it is that zombies begin to die, further depressing the markets — and increasing the risk of wider financial contagion.

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-debt.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[sadoldgit]

Just heard that even though my wife is in her early 50’s, she will have to self isolate for 12 weeks too. Now it is a reality I can see why Whitey kicked off. 12 weeks at home. Bloody hell. 7 days seemed bad enough.

[sandwichsaint]

Anybody else been prevented from home working today!

 

School support staff data/admin/exams, I'm completely on top of my workload, have full remote access to anything and everything I need. In full email contact with all staff, have also circulated my phone number etc. Have a fully worked plan of where I am and where I need to be between now and Easter.

Have offered to come straight back in if needed.

Have been directed to stay in school by HR 'the school is open and we are currently all working in the work place. If the situation changes we will notify staff of this'.

 

Fuming!

[Fan The Flames]

From my experience in all this teachers have been the most precious. I work in a hospital I will be in every day that I am well, like those who work for the police, utilities, shops, food supply chain etc etc. If every one demands to stay at home there will be no food, power, water, people to look after the ill, to police the streets etc etc. I think there is some manning up needed here.

 

If you are old or vulnerable do what you have to do to keep safe, if you are not then minimise unnecessary contact but carry on doing what is needed to get through this. If you get it you will have a **** week but you will get over it.

[norwaysaint]

Anybody else been prevented from home working today!

 

School support staff data/admin/exams, I'm completely on top of my workload, have full remote access to anything and everything I need. In full email contact with all staff, have also circulated my phone number etc. Have a fully worked plan of where I am and where I need to be between now and Easter.

Have offered to come straight back in if needed.

Have been directed to stay in school by HR 'the school is open and we are currently all working in the work place. If the situation changes we will notify staff of this'.

 

Fuming!

 

I'm actually not allowed into the school building anymore except the briefest of visits. I felt like the weeks before school was stopped was just a constant battle against appalling hygiene habits. Kids just sneeze or cough into their own hands half the time, and then will touch anything and everything around them. They actually think you're joking when you tell them to just go and wash their hands immediately. Then they are surprised again when you send them back to do it again, but with soap. Adults aren't much better though, I've seen a grown man, at the height of this, lean over a shelf of food in the supermarket and have a coughing fit over everything, without covering up. He then wiped his nose with his fingers and carried on shopping, picking things up and putting them back. People are generally too stupid and selfish to avoid spreading infection and it won't change.

 

We're now teaching from home, but so is most of the world and all teaching platforms are running painfully slowly. Video conferencing with the class from home has been the norm and it's fun and gives some opportunities, but it's not really a patch on classroom teaching for giving real constructive help. I'd be amazed if any country is really "getting it right", because everything is a big mess that we were scarcely prepared for. We make the best of it though.

 

Governments will be criticised throughout this for scaremongering, ineffective, over-reacting or acting too slowly, but it would have been a paranoid country that had lockdown/coping mechanisms in place for something like this. They're making it up as they go along and getting it right sometimes and wrong others. Opposition will of course take morbid delight in pointing out where they went wrong, but probably wouldn't have coped much better.