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18 minutes ago, LGTL said:

Schools have been the elephant in the room since September. With this new variant clearly more transmissible among children, the government have a clear choice to make. If they decide to keep schools open, they need to level with the public that the R number is very unlikely to fall below 1 as a result. Get teachers higher up the vaccination list and then batten down the hatches and hope for the best until spring.

The current dithering and window dressing cannot be allowed to continue. The choice is easy - keep them open and have the virus largely out of control until spring, or close them, reduce the R number but deal with a loss of education, exam chaos and mental health issues. I don’t really envy those making the decision. 

When you say out of control.. what is the consequence?

Sure, cases are up compared to April, but we are testing around 600k a day now; more tests, more results..  Hospital appointments are up across the board. Isn't that the case this time of year, regardless? In the winter of 2018 alone, around 50-60k excess deaths from flu were (apparently) recorded in England and Wales. Did we shut everything down then? Why now?

I notice that people are having a pop at the 'brits abroad' above.  Surely from a purely authoritative PoV, breaking the rules is bad / selfish. But should the young'uns get Covid - so what? A bit of natural herd immunity is great, right?

I know people are suffering but the numbers point that under 60 years of age (no health conditions), this is not dangerous, let along when you get to the U40s, U25s etc.  Just 377 people in the UK that are U60 have sadly perished when tested positive with covid in the previous 28 days (not necessarily because of Covid).  

The Govt have made huge mistakes but I dread to think what party/PM/Govt that would not.  The virus is spreading, despite face-masks, lockdowns, track and trace (in Germany for example). And the narrative is that this is the plague.  However, more articles by leading journo's are appearing where they are starting to question whether all of this is worth the cost!

I hope testing/vaccinations are ramped up and all public sector workers play a part. If some squaddie with 5 mins training can administer a covid test, it cannot be beyond the wit of more educated/capable civil servants/public/even private sector workers adding to the cause, rather than just say "not my job".

As you say, I do not envy anyone having to weigh up protecting people V wilful destruction of the economy, which will also kill people.

 

*Puts crash helmet on and prepared to be battered by lockdown fanatics*.

Edited by AlexLaw76
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4 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

When you say out of control.. what is the consequence?

Sure, cases are up compared to April, but we are testing around 600k a day now; more tests, more results..  Hospital appointments are up across the board. Isn't that the case this time of year, regardless? In the winter of 2018 alone, around 50-60k excess deaths from flu were (apparently) recorded in England and Wales. Did we shut everything down then? Why now?

I notice that people are having a pop at the 'brits abroad' above.  Surely from a purely authoritative PoV, breaking the rules is bad / selfish. But should the young'uns get Covid - so what? A bit of natural herd immunity is great, right?

I know people are suffering but the numbers point that under 60 years of age (no health conditions), this is not dangerous, let along when you get to the U40s, U25s etc.  Just 377 people in the UK that are U60 have sadly perished when tested positive with covid in the previous 28 days (not necessarily because of Covid).  

The Govt have made huge mistakes but I dread to think what party/PM/Govt that would not.  The virus is spreading, despite face-masks, lockdowns, track and trace (in Germany for example). And the narrative is that this is the plague.  However, more articles by leading journo's are appearing where they are starting to question whether all of this is worth the cost!

I hope testing/vaccinations are ramped up and all public sector workers play a part. If some squaddie with 5 mins training can administer a covid test, it cannot be beyond the wit of more educated/capable civil servants/public/even private sector workers adding to the cause, rather than just say "not my job".

As you say, I do not envy anyone having to weigh up protecting people V wilful destruction of the economy, which will also kill people.

 

*Puts crash helmet on and prepared to be battered by lockdown fanatics*.

I'm guessing you don't know any/many people impacted by this. "lockdown fanatics" is patronising. Its possible to be wary of this shit and not want lockdown. I have several friends with long Covid. All under 60, 2 under 50, and one early 50's in hospital as we speak. Its not just and life, but the young / blinkered / stupid see it that way it would seem. 

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1 minute ago, egg said:

I'm guessing you don't know any/many people impacted by this. "lockdown fanatics" is patronising. Its possible to be wary of this shit and not want lockdown. I have several friends with long Covid. All under 60, 2 under 50, and one early 50's in hospital as we speak. Its not just and life, but the young / blinkered / stupid see it that way it would seem. 

My wife currently has Covid and sat about 3 feet away.

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19 minutes ago, LGTL said:

Schools have been the elephant in the room since September. With this new variant clearly more transmissible among children, the government have a clear choice to make. If they decide to keep schools open, they need to level with the public that the R number is very unlikely to fall below 1 as a result. Get teachers higher up the vaccination list and then batten down the hatches and hope for the best until spring.

The current dithering and window dressing cannot be allowed to continue. The choice is easy - keep them open and have the virus largely out of control until spring, or close them, reduce the R number but deal with a loss of education, exam chaos and mental health issues. I don’t really envy those making the decision. 

Yep, really hard decisions to be made. That said, the exam situation could and should have been sorted ages ago.

My gut says keep them open for Y11 and Y13 as well as LAC etc but remote for the rest for a few weeks.

It's pretty obvious that some regions have been particularly badly hit and the lower demographics hit hardest. There isn't, nor will there be, a level playing field in GCSEs or A levels across England. Even the disparity that clearly exists in remote delivery is going to play a big part in that. Not just the delivery and content, which I accept can vary massively, but access to it.

With the latter at least predicted UCAS grades are in for A levels after the PPE exams. My lot have done 2 full sets. I know my lad has done two sets too.

It's also things like the extended BTECs and Access courses as well as all the apprentices re-doing GCSEs that needs addressing urgently. 

 

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2 minutes ago, View From The Top said:

Yep, really hard decisions to be made. That said, the exam situation could and should have been sorted ages ago.

My gut says keep them open for Y11 and Y13 as well as LAC etc but remote for the rest for a few weeks.

It's pretty obvious that some regions have been particularly badly hit and the lower demographics hit hardest. There isn't, nor will there be, a level playing field in GCSEs or A levels across England. Even the disparity that clearly exists in remote delivery is going to play a big part in that. Not just the delivery and content, which I accept can vary massively, but access to it.

With the latter at least predicted UCAS grades are in for A levels after the PPE exams. My lot have done 2 full sets. I know my lad has done two sets too.

It's also things like the extended BTECs and Access courses as well as all the apprentices re-doing GCSEs that needs addressing urgently. 

 

How is remote delivery holding up? Is it via Zoom? Teams?

Must be hard(er) given the 'sage on the stage' element of being a teacher/instructor - in the room - is taken away.

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FFS lets face it, with the way that covid rates are rising with this new variant  isnt  it time for a full national lockdown? Forget about tiers. Forget about bubbles. Call it a circuitbreaker. Call it whatever you like but close down schools, close down all but essential shops close down everything  for a few weeks. Keep vaccinations going and in a couple of months things will look a lot rosier.

 

Edited by Tamesaint
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8 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

FFS lets face it, with the way that covid rates are rising with this new variant  isnt  it time for a full national lockdown? Forget about tiers. Forget about bubbles. Call it a circuitbreaker. Call it whatever you like but close down schools, close down all but essential shops close down everything  for a few weeks. Keep vaccinations going and in a couple of months things will look a lot rosier.

 

Correct.

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14 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

FFS lets face it, with the way that covid rates are rising with this new variant  isnt  it time for a full national lockdown? Forget about tiers. Forget about bubbles. Call it a circuitbreaker. Call it whatever you like but close down schools, close down all but essential shops close down everything  for a few weeks. Keep vaccinations going and in a couple of months things will look a lot rosier.

 

My belief is that will happen, they are talking about a new tier for the entire country that is 'tougher' than tier 4. Curfews have been mooted, how that goes down is anyone's guess. Riots pending?

Sounds like 2021 is going to be another blast of a year and we're not even there yet.

 

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54 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

FFS lets face it, with the way that covid rates are rising with this new variant  isnt  it time for a full national lockdown? Forget about tiers. Forget about bubbles. Call it a circuitbreaker. Call it whatever you like but close down schools, close down all but essential shops close down everything  for a few weeks. Keep vaccinations going and in a couple of months things will look a lot rosier.

 

It’s inevitable. 

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1 hour ago, S-Clarke said:

My belief is that will happen, they are talking about a new tier for the entire country that is 'tougher' than tier 4. Curfews have been mooted, how that goes down is anyone's guess. Riots pending?

Sounds like 2021 is going to be another blast of a year and we're not even there yet.

 

IF we can crank these vaccines up to two million a week nationwide and have a hardcore 2 week circuit breaker now, suddenly the future all looks brighter. Sadly it’ll just be half arsed measures which people will try to circumnavigate and the vaccines won’t really start to have an effect until summer.

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4 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

IF we can crank these vaccines up to two million a week nationwide and have a hardcore 2 week circuit breaker now, suddenly the future all looks brighter. Sadly it’ll just be half arsed measures which people will try to circumnavigate and the vaccines won’t really start to have an effect until summer.

The vaccine will have a measurable effect almosr from day 1, won’t need to wait till summer. An R rate of 1.2 is quite agrressive expansion. Six weeks at 2millioncvacinbations a week would bring the rate down to below 1 with no other measures 

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Looks like China haven't been totally honest with their reporting, who knew ;) 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55481397

Quote

Wuhan's population is estimated at 11 million, which suggests that almost 500,000 people may have had the virus.

If true, that is almost 10 times higher than Wuhan's officially recorded number of 50,354 cases.

 

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1 hour ago, whelk said:

What do people think about giving the vaccine to footballers ahead of others to ensure it continues?

When I heard it during the match yesterday I thought, wtf!  It's not like footballers are at any serious risk.  Then, thinking about it, why not?  They're going to get it eventually anyway, so why not bump them to the front of the queue.

However, I would put a caveat on them receiving the jab (out of turn).  Firstly, work out the cost of one jab (including transport, storage, personnel involved etc) and charge them 1,000 times the cost per footballer, so effectively each footballer that gets the jab early is paying for 1,000+ (taking into account cost of scale) people to be vaccinated.

Don't give a monkeys whether this comes out of their wages, the club pays, sponsors pay or some one else that has more money than sense coughs up, as long as some one does.  I think that would be fair.

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8 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

My belief is that will happen, they are talking about a new tier for the entire country that is 'tougher' than tier 4. Curfews have been mooted, how that goes down is anyone's guess. Riots pending?

Sounds like 2021 is going to be another blast of a year and we're not even there yet.

 

It'll be tier 5 I'd guess, essentially what we have now but no physical schools or universities. Whether it extends to primary and pre schools I'm not convinced though. 

If be interested to know what the teachers and other school workers on here think should happen. A small Southampton school had 20 cases in 2 days just before Xmas. One has died and 2 are in hospital. 

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1 hour ago, whelk said:

What do people think about giving the vaccine to footballers ahead of others to ensure it continues?

I'd say yes, and as Weston says, make football pay for it with bells on. For me, I'd like to see it happen a) to keep the game going as the winter is gonna be bleak enough, b) there will be players impacted longer term by this - a small amount of lung or other physical damage to an elite athlete will make a difference, and c) I would hope that seeing footy players take it will give confidence to the anti vax or reluctant vaxers - as a society we need high take up of the vaccine. 

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9 hours ago, Tamesaint said:

FFS lets face it, with the way that covid rates are rising with this new variant  isnt  it time for a full national lockdown? Forget about tiers. Forget about bubbles. Call it a circuitbreaker. Call it whatever you like but close down schools, close down all but essential shops close down everything  for a few weeks. Keep vaccinations going and in a couple of months things will look a lot rosier.

 

Probably be the same as lockdown one.

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8 hours ago, buctootim said:

The vaccine will have a measurable effect almosr from day 1, won’t need to wait till summer. An R rate of 1.2 is quite agrressive expansion. Six weeks at 2millioncvacinbations a week would bring the rate down to below 1 with no other measures 

If we have the capacity to give 2 million vaccinations per week (no idea if that is possible but would probably take some time to reach in the same way testing took time to increase capacity), we would only 'effectively' be vaccinating 1 million people per week.

Six weeks would only see 6 million vaccinations - if the starting point were 2 mil per week - probably not enough to bring the R rate down with no other measures.

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5 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Oxford/AZ Vaccine approved with a roll out to start next week. Good news as this should accelerate the vaccination roll out.

Yep, this is the one that'll make the difference if we can get the supply. Piece of cake to transport and store. Get this out there en masse and things will look brighter. 

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1 hour ago, egg said:

It'll be tier 5 I'd guess, essentially what we have now but no physical schools or universities. Whether it extends to primary and pre schools I'm not convinced though. 

If be interested to know what the teachers and other school workers on here think should happen. A small Southampton school had 20 cases in 2 days just before Xmas. One has died and 2 are in hospital. 

I'm not sure about primaries. There is currently research being done looking at the new strand and it's impact on youngsters and if they transmit it in the same way the teenagers do.

Secondary, 6th Form, FE and HE should all be paused and flipped to remote bar the usual caveats around SEN, LAC etc. 

Personally I'd still want Y11 and Y13 in as DfE insist exams are still going ahead and it doesn't matter how good your remote delivery/content is, it doesn't replace face 2 face. Many are screwed anyway unless there is a serious rollback on exams, how they're marked and boundary grades etc. Not just for GCSE and A level, but all awarded subjects across all tertiary.

 

 

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18 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How is remote delivery holding up? Is it via Zoom? Teams?

Must be hard(er) given the 'sage on the stage' element of being a teacher/instructor - in the room - is taken away.

Speaking for my school, our remote curriculum works superbly, we have delivered all lessons according to schedule for all year groups since the first lockdown. They are given via Teams, the children can login remotely and then the lessons are given via either powerpoint or (as I prefer) to use my visualiser and write notes and questions for the pupils as we go. This meant that key worker students who could be in my classroom can follow along with all remote students and will be how I continue next week.

What isn't working is engagement. It started at 60% then dropped to non-existent for some classes by lockdown's end. The parental support wasn't there so the attendance wasn't either.

Edited by Colinjb
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Is it just me or does anyone else think the Nightingale hospitals have been created 'back to front'?

The whole purpose of the Nightingales was to increase capacity to treat Covid patients.  However, Covid patients require lots of intensive care in hospital - respirators, intensive nursing etc.  Simply put we don't have enough trained specialists to staff regular hospitals as well as the Nightingales.

Shouldn't they use the Nightingales for the non urgent, non surgical, non Covid patients - the people who cannot be safely discharged but don't actually need a lot of medical intervention?  Staffing them to fit the needs of these patients would be an easier task than staffing them with specialists.

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10 hours ago, buctootim said:

The vaccine will have a measurable effect almosr from day 1, won’t need to wait till summer. An R rate of 1.2 is quite agrressive expansion. Six weeks at 2millioncvacinbations a week would bring the rate down to below 1 with no other measures 

The new strain has moved the goalposts somewhat. I’d want to get the R number below 1 ASAP and tackle it from there. According to Google there are 8,700,000 over seventies in the UK. If we can stem the spread of infections and get the large majority of those people vaccinated, there shouldn’t be a need for any more lockdowns. A reasonable number of under seventies will still get sick (and a few of them will die) but at a rate the NHS should easily cope with, even without lockdowns.

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14 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Is it just me or does anyone else think the Nightingale hospitals have been created 'back to front'?

The whole purpose of the Nightingales was to increase capacity to treat Covid patients.  However, Covid patients require lots of intensive care in hospital - respirators, intensive nursing etc.  Simply put we don't have enough trained specialists to staff regular hospitals as well as the Nightingales.

Shouldn't they use the Nightingales for the non urgent, non surgical, non Covid patients - the people who cannot be safely discharged but don't actually need a lot of medical intervention?  Staffing them to fit the needs of these patients would be an easier task than staffing them with specialists.

Absolutely, they should have been used to take the backlog from the hospitals. 

I think they were a big publicity stunt though, there was never any intention to use them on mass - it just looked good in the media.

We had one lined up next to the cruise terminal in Southampton but that 'never happened'. The one in Bristol was never used, the one in Birmingham and the North East area had a splattering of patients. London the most used one, but not anywhere near how it should be.

They were 'stood up' to aid with the situation we find ourselves in now (Hospitals over run etc). So why in gods name are they being 'stood down' as of Boxing Day? Absolute nonsense.

Lots and lots and lots of $$$$$ spent on these by the way, they were not 'freebies'.

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2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Looks like China haven't been totally honest with their reporting, who knew ;) 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55481397

 

I still reckon they’d had a couple of million killed. Everything about their population and the way they initially handled the situation suggests it should have been a bloodbath over there.

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1 hour ago, Colinjb said:

Speaking for my school, our remote curriculum works superbly, we have delivered all lessons according to schedule for all year groups since the first lockdown. They are given via Teams, the children can login remotely and then the lessons are given via either powerpoint or (as I prefer) to use my visualiser and write notes and questions for the pupils as we go. This meant that key worker students who could be in my classroom can follow along with all remote students and will be how I continue next week.

What isn't working is engagement. It started at 60% then dropped to non-existent for some classes by lockdown's end. The parental support wasn't there so the attendance wasn't either.

I use my Smartboard, PowerPoint & my visualiser. I keep my webcam on and pointed towards me and talk directly to it when addressing those who are remote.

It took some getting used to but works a treat but as you say, many CBA.

We've had to make things very simple to access as when we 1st planned we were thinking from a teachers perspective and not a student who may only have a phone to access classes. There is been pretty excellent collab across the city TBF and that's helped.

My own kids grumble that they are doing more actual work when at home then they do in class which I view as a good thing.

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36 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Is it just me or does anyone else think the Nightingale hospitals have been created 'back to front'?

The whole purpose of the Nightingales was to increase capacity to treat Covid patients.  However, Covid patients require lots of intensive care in hospital - respirators, intensive nursing etc.  Simply put we don't have enough trained specialists to staff regular hospitals as well as the Nightingales.

Shouldn't they use the Nightingales for the non urgent, non surgical, non Covid patients - the people who cannot be safely discharged but don't actually need a lot of medical intervention?  Staffing them to fit the needs of these patients would be an easier task than staffing them with specialists.

my mate who i mentioned the other day is now in Reading hospital with Covid. He was taken in yesterday morning and moved to a high dependancy unit over night. He's doing okay but says that despite what you read the hospital is not busy at all, said he's got first class care and they cant do enough for him. Appreciate that this is just one hospital but it is in a Tier 4 area, doesn't quite match the scare mongering about the NHS being close to being over run. 

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46 minutes ago, Turkish said:

my mate who i mentioned the other day is now in Reading hospital with Covid. He was taken in yesterday morning and moved to a high dependancy unit over night. He's doing okay but says that despite what you read the hospital is not busy at all, said he's got first class care and they cant do enough for him. Appreciate that this is just one hospital but it is in a Tier 4 area, doesn't quite match the scare mongering about the NHS being close to being over run. 

There’s obviously an element of media sensation in all of this but I think the worst is yet to come for this wave. Last time we didn’t reach peak hospital loads until a couple of weeks after the lockdown started.

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46 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

There’s obviously an element of media sensation in all of this but I think the worst is yet to come for this wave. Last time we didn’t reach peak hospital loads until a couple of weeks after the lockdown started.

This. Because of the time lag I expect the graph of positive results is only just starting to show the effects of the Xmas super-spreader event. I think hospital admissions follow by about two weeks, then the inevitable jump in deaths after that.

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How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

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3 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

At what stage? If there's a surplus then that seems fine, otherwise you're just using your financial means to jump the queue and potentially deprive someone at greater need. 

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2 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

Money talks, always has, always will.  Doubtless there will be plenty of 'profiteering' from it.  The only hope is that the companies that are making the vaccines use the additional money they make to fund distribution in poorer countries.

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5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

At what stage? If there's a surplus then that seems fine, otherwise you're just using your financial means to jump the queue and potentially deprive someone at greater need. 

I guess that's the key to it. It's being reported that the AZ vaccine is easy and cheap to mas produce and distribute. You'd think at some point the bottleneck in vaccinations will come not from the number available but our ability to administer them, at which point there will be some surplus.

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12 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

Considering that may be the only way I, and my colleagues in the teaching profession could get one, then I would consider it to be sensible. 

As long as it doesn't negatively effect supply to the most vulnerable.

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40 minutes ago, Colinjb said:

Considering that may be the only way I, and my colleagues in the teaching profession could get one, then I would consider it to be sensible. 

As long as it doesn't negatively effect supply to the most vulnerable.

Indeed. It is likely that I'll be offered one at some point possibly in January. I'd rather my mum was given it first to be honest so I hope there's an option to pay. 

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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

Not for me. Not that I’m against private medical provision, I wish there was more, but the fallout would do my head in. Firstly, they’ll be a mate of Boris that’ll pay for it, or maybe Nige, followed by BBC & C4 interviewing a frontline nurse, yet to be vaccinated unlike Mr X. Then the Right will find an example of a leftie or wokie getting one, maybe Piers Morgan or Linekar. Then an MP will be outed. It’ll be unbearable.

The only way money should talk is by paying someone to vaccinate people. I’ve no faith in the NHS doing this alone. Let’s pay Bupa or whoever by results, the more they vaccinate, the quicker they vaccinate, the more they earn. If they can vaccinate the most vulnerable by Feb they’ll deserve every frigging penny. 

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Just waiting as to whether we are in a "hotspot" or not and how it's going to impact us.

My wife's school most definitely is.

I'll still be in on Monday as I know my SEN class after lunch will all be rocking up, although it now looks as if there isn't even any remote learning for Y11 & 13 which seems odd.

At least it gives everyone a fighting chance to get some sort of testing regime up and running.

Edit - There is remote learning for Y11 & Y13.

Edited by View From The Top
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12 minutes ago, View From The Top said:

At least it gives everyone a fighting chance to get some sort of testing regime up and running.

And just what will this entail?

Nothing has been filtered down from our SLT in terms of what role we are playing. 

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3 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

I would be delighted. It would take the strain out of the system. This is a numbers game and if a million people privately funded their own vaccine that would mean one million less in the queue for everyone else. 

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19 minutes ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

I would be delighted. It would take the strain out of the system. This is a numbers game and if a million people privately funded their own vaccine that would mean one million less in the queue for everyone else. 

How about a million people privately funding vaccines for the most vulnerable?

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3 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

How would everyone feel about the vaccines being available privately to people who are not in the ‘at risk’ groups? Footballers were used as an example on the main board. Supposing people, who wanted to travel but were only in their thirties or forties, could get a jab through BUPA or whoever; this would then give them a QR code which could be used to travel abroad.

About a month ago I saw somebody online claiming they had a private appointment to get the vaccine and it was costing £300. No idea if true 

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Coronavirus

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