Coronavirus

[ecuk268]

24 minutes ago, buctootim said:

And whole of Hampshire. Cant even nip over to Romsey for a pint. 

Not the New Forest.

[Jimmy_D]

Into Tier 4 then.

Looks like the new variant is a bit of a monster, it's not going to be easy to keep it under control, especially if people are starting to get fatigued with following restrictions. I'd be absolutely amazed if they don't extend Tier 4 even further over the next few days/weeks. Hopefully that'll be enough to suppress it.

The vaccine is going to be our only realistic way out of this.

[Weston Super Saint]

Back to tier 3 for us, which literally makes no difference whatsoever from tier 2, if you aren't going to the pub.

[buctootim]

44 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Into Tier 4 then.

Looks like the new variant is a bit of a monster, it's not going to be easy to keep it under control, especially if people are starting to get fatigued with following restrictions. I'd be absolutely amazed if they don't extend Tier 4 even further over the next few days/weeks. Hopefully that'll be enough to suppress it.

The vaccine is going to be our only realistic way out of this.

The number of new infections is going through the roof but the number of hospitalisations and deaths are nowhere near at rates commensurate with the Spring episode. It could be its more infectious but less deadly. 

[Jimmy_D]

1 minute ago, buctootim said:

The number of new infections is going through the roof but the number of hospitalisations and deaths are nowhere near at rates commensurate with the Spring episode. It could be its more infectious but less deadly. 

Too early to tell, those figures have always lagged behind, there's nothing to suggest they won't follow the same pattern unfortunately.

[buctootim]

8 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Too early to tell, those figures have always lagged behind, there's nothing to suggest they won't follow the same pattern unfortunately.

Certainly the ratio of hospitalisations to confirmed infections has declined dramatically. The question is is that due to less virulence or more testing. 

Edited 23 December, 2020 by buctootim

[buctootim]

Did anyone hear Blair suggest earlier today that people should be given only one dose of the Pfizer vaccine on the basis that you could treat twice as many people for almost the same levels of protection  - 91% for one shot, 95% for two.

Makes a lot of sense imo - the kind of common sense and lateral thinking that seems to be wholly lacking in this Government. I know there are some regulatory approval hiccups to do that but should be easy to overcome.   

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, buctootim said:

Did anyone hear Blair suggest earlier today that people should be given only one dose of the Pfizer vaccine on the basis that you could treat twice as many people for almost the same levels of protection  - 91% for one shot, 95% for two.

Makes a lot of sense imo - the kind of common sense and lateral thinking that seems to be wholly lacking in this Government. I know there are some regulatory approval hiccups to do that but should be easy to overcome.   

It's not just regulatory approval that's lacking there, it's data to back up the 91% figure, especially on how long that immunity lasts.

They will have been looking at it as an option, and if they have the data to back up that it's the best option for saving lives, they'll recommend it. 

[Whitey Grandad]

Load of incompetent dickheads. All those areas that behaved responsibly are now being lumped in with all the irresponsible little shits.

I didn’t vote for them but a fat lot of good that does us.

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

Into Tier 4 then.

Looks like the new variant is a bit of a monster, it's not going to be easy to keep it under control, especially if people are starting to get fatigued with following restrictions. I'd be absolutely amazed if they don't extend Tier 4 even further over the next few days/weeks. Hopefully that'll be enough to suppress it.

The vaccine is going to be our only realistic way out of this.

What’s worse about it? 

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, Whitey Grandad said:

What’s worse about it? 

It's far more contagious, enough that it's spreading exponentially (ie r above 1) despite lockdown measures that were previously enough to reduce r below 1.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4944

[Winnersaint]

Welcome to Tier 4

[Whitey Grandad]

9 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

It's far more contagious, enough that it's spreading exponentially (ie r above 1) despite lockdown measures that were previously enough to reduce r below 1.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4944

So what? The real quests ‘is it more dangerous?’

You can’t control a virus. You don’t prevent dying by stopping people from living.

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, Whitey Grandad said:

So what? The real quests ‘is it more dangerous?’

You can’t control a virus. You don’t prevent dying by stopping people from living.

Purely on an individual basis, it seems that children don't have the same resistance to it as the more common variant.

But it's how fast this thing spreads that has always been the biggest problem with it.

Our only weapon until now against this overwhelming the NHS's ability to treat people has been lockdown measures, and this variant directly makes those measures less effective.

Right now we're trying to buy enough time to roll out the vaccine before that happens.

[Whitey Grandad]

9 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Purely on an individual basis, it seems that children don't have the same resistance to it as the more common variant.

But it's how fast this thing spreads that has always been the biggest problem with it.

Our only weapon until now against this overwhelming the NHS's ability to treat people has been lockdown measures, and this variant directly makes those measures less effective.

Right now we're trying to buy enough time to roll out the vaccine before that happens.

Well it hasn’t worked so far. There’s too much talk about protecting the NHS. What about protecting the public? The tail is wagging the dog.

Just let us all take responsibility for our own safety and try to get on with living a life. We’re stacking up problems for our health, wealth and livelihoods.

 

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, Whitey Grandad said:

Well it hasn’t worked so far. There’s too much talk about protecting the NHS. What about protecting the public? The tail is wagging the dog.

Just let us all take responsibility for our own safety and try to get on with living a life. We’re stacking up problems for our health, wealth and livelihoods.

 

Trouble with that is that, for every individual person, the risk is low.

Everyone can justifiably make the judgement that they'll probably be ok and get on with behaving as normal.

Unfortunately with millions of people making that same judgement, it adds up to a big problem overall.

In the USA, for example, they have some lockdown measures, but they also have millions of people making the judgement that the risk is low enough for them to ignore it. It's enough people making that judgement that's adding up to them suffering more than 9-11 every day at the moment. It's likely to get worse there before it gets better too.

[Raging Bull]

1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

It's far more contagious, enough that it's spreading exponentially (ie r above 1) despite lockdown measures that were previously enough to reduce r below 1.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4944

Out of interest, what would you suggest if there’s another outbreak of some sort next year or the year after?

 

Should we be locking down every time? 

[View From The Top]

Had to go to North London today as my lad had a medical appointment.

 

All I can say if that is T4 then we are fucked as it was as busy as it always is.

 

Also, how Staffordshire has stayed out of T4 is beyond me as it's way worse were I am than it is in Soton.

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, Raging Bull said:

Out of interest, what would you suggest if there’s another outbreak of some sort next year or the year after?

 

Should we be locking down every time? 

Have to be honest, I wouldn't want to be making that call, but locking down would probably be the lesser of two evils.

It's a choice between people suffering because of their lives being turned upside down, or people suffering because of a virus.

Both have the potential to severely impact people's lives, including causing deaths. There's no good option, but in the case of the virus, the worse it gets, the faster it keeps getting even worse. Locking down was never meant to be a permanent solution, but was meant to buy time for the research to find a way to stop the virus.

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, Jimmy_D said:

Purely on an individual basis, it seems that children don't have the same resistance to it as the more common variant.

But it's how fast this thing spreads that has always been the biggest problem with it.

Our only weapon until now against this overwhelming the NHS's ability to treat people has been lockdown measures, and this variant directly makes those measures less effective.

Right now we're trying to buy enough time to roll out the vaccine before that happens

When the supposed more common variant started to rip through the country they shut down schools and universities, with this supposed more contagious strain to children schools have remained open the whole time, and surprise surprise more kids have been infected. Funny that. 

[View From The Top]

3 minutes ago, Turkish said:

When the supposed more common variant started to rip through the country they shut down schools and universities, with this supposed more contagious strain to children schools have remained open the whole time, and surprise surprise more kids have been infected. Funny that. 

That can't be right. Schools and colleges are entirely COVID secure. The government told us so.

I wonder how many grandparents will be infected by grandkids over Xmas without them even knowing they had it?

We've made the decision not to visit just in case, especially considering we both teach in the hottest of hotspots and the kids school and 6th form have been rife with it.

[Jimmy_D]

16 minutes ago, Turkish said:

When the supposed more common variant started to rip through the country they shut down schools and universities, with this supposed more contagious strain to children schools have remained open the whole time, and surprise surprise more kids have been infected. Funny that. 

Indeed. With the data coming through about how kids don't have the same resistance with the new variant, I'd be shocked if schools reopen after Christmas during this lockdown.

[badgerx16]

4 hours ago, The Cat said:

New Forest not in Tier 4 but Eastleigh is even though our cases are pretty much the same as theirs. This government are a bunch of total cretins. 

Bit late to the party, aren't you ?

[buctootim]

4 hours ago, The Cat said:

New Forest not in Tier 4 but Eastleigh is even though our cases are pretty much the same as theirs. This government are a bunch of total cretins. 

Principleless cretins. The decision isnt based on stats or evidence. Swayne the Tory MP for New Forest has been highly critical of the Gov on what he sees as an over reaction. 

[badgerx16]

I reckon Tier 4 will be extended across the whole of England on Jan 1st. It is faintly ridiculous to think an arbitrary line on a map has any effect; at what point as you drive from Maybush to Cadnam do you become less infectious ?

[aintforever]

It’s just bonkers putting everyone in tier 4 the day AFTER everyone will be meeting up and infecting their families.

[badgerx16]

4 minutes ago, aintforever said:

It’s just bonkers putting everyone in tier 4 the day AFTER everyone will be meeting up and infecting their families.

Every 'scheduling' decision made during the pandemic has been botched.

[rallyboy]

Delayed response in February, Boris shaking hands, Dido Harding's Cheltenham Festival allowed to run, PPE opportunities missed then contracts awarded in a corrupt fashion, dither and delay over borders and airports, time wasted on failed systems when launching a robust testing regime was absolutely key, U-turns, MPs lying, laughable appointments of key roles, lessons from other countries ignored, NHS staff exposed without kit, billions of taxpayer pounds wasted, old people left to die in care homes, science ignored, more U-turns, the public and scientists gently blamed, figures manipulated, targets missed but lied about - and you can be sure the final trick will be to delay and dodge an enquiry that would expose the most inept and corrupt cabinet in living memory.

Anyone who seriously thinks they've done a great job needs sectioning - look at them, they couldn't run a fucking bath.

[egg]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

I reckon Tier 4 will be extended across the whole of England on Jan 1st. It is faintly ridiculous to think an arbitrary line on a map has any effect; at what point as you drive from Maybush to Cadnam do you become less infectious ?

Yep. I'm in Rownhams (tier 4). There are less cases here than in Totton (tier 3). That in itself makes no sense. If I worked in Totton I could go to work, but couldn't go to Asda in my lunch break. All a bit mental. 

[trousers]

1 hour ago, aintforever said:

It’s just bonkers putting everyone in tier 4 the day AFTER everyone will be meeting up and infecting their families.

Not everyone. Our family have tapped into our collective intellect and decided not to meet up on Christmas day. I doubt we're the only clever family in the land...

Edited 23 December, 2020 by trousers

[buctootim]

25 minutes ago, trousers said:

I doubt we're the only clever family in the land...

That. Or it was the story they all agreed to tell you 😄  

Edited 23 December, 2020 by buctootim

[Weston Super Saint]

8 hours ago, rallyboy said:

Delayed response in February, Boris shaking hands, Dido Harding's Cheltenham Festival allowed to run, PPE opportunities missed then contracts awarded in a corrupt fashion, dither and delay over borders and airports, time wasted on failed systems when launching a robust testing regime was absolutely key, U-turns, MPs lying, laughable appointments of key roles, lessons from other countries ignored, NHS staff exposed without kit, billions of taxpayer pounds wasted, old people left to die in care homes, science ignored, more U-turns, the public and scientists gently blamed, figures manipulated, targets missed but lied about - and you can be sure the final trick will be to delay and dodge an enquiry that would expose the most inept and corrupt cabinet in living memory.

Anyone who seriously thinks they've done a great job needs sectioning - look at them, they couldn't run a fucking bath.

Brings new meaning to 2020 vision.

[Lighthouse]

Hi everyone, I’m planning a ski trip in the last week of January, if the lifts are open and we’re out of lockdown. That being the case, would you mind awfully sitting in the cupboard under the stairs until said week, so we can get the R number down a bit.

 

Thanks a million.

[whelk]

23 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Hi everyone, I’m planning a ski trip in the last week of January, if the lifts are open and we’re out of lockdown. That being the case, would you mind awfully sitting in the cupboard under the stairs until said week, so we can get the R number down a bit.

 

Thanks a million.

They had some really good deals on flights to Geneva. Even so I didn’t bother as extremely optimistic to think be skiing this year 

[Lighthouse]

37 minutes ago, whelk said:

They had some really good deals on flights to Geneva. Even so I didn’t bother as extremely optimistic to think be skiing this year 

Was looking at flights to Dubai in April too, some cracking prices out there. Emirates biz for £860 on one particular day, or less than £150 in cattle with BA. Cheapest I found was about £200 return but that was via Kiev.

[S-Clarke]

13 hours ago, rallyboy said:

Delayed response in February, Boris shaking hands, Dido Harding's Cheltenham Festival allowed to run, PPE opportunities missed then contracts awarded in a corrupt fashion, dither and delay over borders and airports, time wasted on failed systems when launching a robust testing regime was absolutely key, U-turns, MPs lying, laughable appointments of key roles, lessons from other countries ignored, NHS staff exposed without kit, billions of taxpayer pounds wasted, old people left to die in care homes, science ignored, more U-turns, the public and scientists gently blamed, figures manipulated, targets missed but lied about - and you can be sure the final trick will be to delay and dodge an enquiry that would expose the most inept and corrupt cabinet in living memory.

Anyone who seriously thinks they've done a great job needs sectioning - look at them, they couldn't run a fucking bath.

Can't disagree with any of it, it has been absolute carnage. The Vaccine rollout is equally as shambolic.

They haven't got a single thing correct. I wouldn't trust them to turn the tap on my bath.

[egg]

1 hour ago, S-Clarke said:

 The Vaccine rollout is equally as shambolic.

 

A friend had a call last week asking if he'd like a vaccine as they had some about to expire. 65m + people and we allow vaccines to expire because we can't organise things.

[Lighthouse]

23 minutes ago, egg said:

A friend had a call last week asking if he'd like a vaccine as they had some about to expire. 65m + people and we allow vaccines to expire because we can't organise things.

I think that’s slightly open to interpretation. They could have had everything planned out, only for a certain number of no-shows to leave a number of vaccines unused. So, rather than waste them, they scroll down the list and pick some more people for a jab.

[S-Clarke]

7 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I think that’s slightly open to interpretation. They could have had everything planned out, only for a certain number of no-shows to leave a number of vaccines unused. So, rather than waste them, they scroll down the list and pick some more people for a jab.

That is possible - the 'local' teams are doing a decent job pulling the vaccines together and creating some organisation after what the government and national teams are feeding them.

I've seen behind the scenes from an IT view of how it's panning out, it's chaos from the 'centre'. The government have outsourced the mass distribution of IT kit to private companies (there's a surprise), the local teams aren't told what is arriving or when and there is no info on how they are configured. When it does arrive (if it does), it's usually only containing half the tools they require....so the local teams are the ones having to think on their feet.

The government's handling from a national standpoint has been shit throughout, only reason things are kind of working is because of the local front line teams.

 

Edited 24 December, 2020 by S-Clarke

[View From The Top]

3 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Was looking at flights to Dubai in April too, some cracking prices out there. Emirates biz for £860 on one particular day, or less than £150 in cattle with BA. Cheapest I found was about £200 return but that was via Kiev.

We've just cancelled our flights to LA at Easter and rebooked for October.

Just got to accept that we were a wee bit optimistic. Similar for a trip to Rome which will get rolled over too.

[Lord Duckhunter]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

I think that’s slightly open to interpretation. They could have had everything planned out, only for a certain number of no-shows to leave a number of vaccines unused. So, rather than waste them, they scroll down the list and pick some more people for a jab.

That’s exactly what happens. When it happens in this area they vaccinate NHS staff on duty with it. Still, gives people a chance to moan about the government again. 

[View From The Top]

17 hours ago, rallyboy said:

Delayed response in February, Boris shaking hands, Dido Harding's Cheltenham Festival allowed to run, PPE opportunities missed then contracts awarded in a corrupt fashion, dither and delay over borders and airports, time wasted on failed systems when launching a robust testing regime was absolutely key, U-turns, MPs lying, laughable appointments of key roles, lessons from other countries ignored, NHS staff exposed without kit, billions of taxpayer pounds wasted, old people left to die in care homes, science ignored, more U-turns, the public and scientists gently blamed, figures manipulated, targets missed but lied about - and you can be sure the final trick will be to delay and dodge an enquiry that would expose the most inept and corrupt cabinet in living memory.

Anyone who seriously thinks they've done a great job needs sectioning - look at them, they couldn't run a fucking bath.

I think most people cut them some slack at the start of it all but as it's gone along it's just become more WTF day after day.

[Lighthouse]

8 hours ago, View From The Top said:

We've just cancelled our flights to LA at Easter and rebooked for October.

Just got to accept that we were a wee bit optimistic. Similar for a trip to Rome which will get rolled over too.

I’m still optimistic that some sort of Easter getaway is salvageable given enough vaccinations to the at risk groups. USA might be optimistic with Donnie in charge for another month but other, less bat sh*t mental, countries might be civilised and habitable by then.

[Turkish]

By the way I forgot to ask. Is there anyone who still thinks it’s all a conspiracy theory designed by the government as a control mechanism?

[Lighthouse]

3 minutes ago, Turkish said:

By the way I forgot to ask. Is there anyone who still thinks it’s all a conspiracy theory designed by the government as a control mechanism?

Rather tragically, a good friend of mine who is by no means stupid is completely taken in by it all. He recent posted on FB that the latest lockdowns were an example (which he had perfectly predicted) of the government continuing to turn the screw in taking away our personal freedoms.

 

He won’t listen to several dozen doctors in Wales telling him critical care units are on the bring of capacity but he will share a blog, written by an Alabama redneck on ket, stating that microchips are indeed in the vaccine and if you ever go somewhere with a wifi signal the government will know your precise location.

[whelk]

5 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Rather tragically, a good friend of mine who is by no means stupid is completely taken in by it all. He recent posted on FB that the latest lockdowns were an example (which he had perfectly predicted) of the government continuing to turn the screw in taking away our personal freedoms.

 

He won’t listen to several dozen doctors in Wales telling him critical care units are on the bring of capacity but he will share a blog, written by an Alabama redneck on ket, stating that microchips are indeed in the vaccine and if you ever go somewhere with a wifi signal the government will know your precise location.

And you say ‘by no means stupid’? 
 

Although my mate’s nan since she has had the vaccine, hasn’t stopped banging on about the benefits of Microsoft products and now has four portraits of Bill Gates in her house. Coincidence?

[Whitey Grandad]

7 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Rather tragically, a good friend of mine who is by no means stupid is completely taken in by it all. He recent posted on FB that the latest lockdowns were an example (which he had perfectly predicted) of the government continuing to turn the screw in taking away our personal freedoms.

 

He won’t listen to several dozen doctors in Wales telling him critical care units are on the bring of capacity but he will share a blog, written by an Alabama redneck on ket, stating that microchips are indeed in the vaccine and if you ever go somewhere with a wifi signal the government will know your precise location.

Well that much is true. Not necessarily the government but Google will.

[StDunko]

8 hours ago, Turkish said:

By the way I forgot to ask. Is there anyone who still thinks it’s all a conspiracy theory designed by the government as a control mechanism?

Calling Scally to the thread.

[Fan The Flames]

1 hour ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Well that much is true. Not necessarily the government but Google will.

Google's got that covered already. That cat is well and truly out of the bag.

[Lighthouse]

6 hours ago, whelk said:

And you say ‘by no means stupid’? 
 

Although my mate’s nan since she has had the vaccine, hasn’t stopped banging on about the benefits of Microsoft products and now has four portraits of Bill Gates in her house. Coincidence?

Very bright academically, a former airline captain and currently in law school.

 

I guess it’s like many of the politics and social threads on here and in the wider world; once you start down the wrong path and only seek confirmation bias, even the smartest people can believe the strangest ideas.