Summer Transfer Window 2021

[MarkSFC]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Contradict yourself a little there.

Last season...

Adams 9 PL goals

Ings 12 PL goals

This season you say you think Adams might score 12 to 15 goals. Which is more than Ings did last season.

Ok, you are correct in very simple terms but in a full season of play Ings obviously outscores Adams. The GPM for each is about half for Ings if I recall hence my opinion/statement.

 

If you really think Adams will score as many and or as regularly as Ings then you really need to reassess how you judge a footballer.  

[skintsaint]

10 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Last season...

Adams 9 PL goals

Ings 12 PL goals

And considering Ings took the pens, probably not much in it. Ings did have a great goal/game ratio, but with only 12 goals last season shows why we had no real choice but to let him go for the stupid fee Villa gave us.

Edited 7 August, 2021 by skintsaint

[Dellman]

7 minutes ago, MarkSFC said:

Ok, you are correct in very simple terms but in a full season of play Ings obviously outscores Adams. The GPM for each is about half for Ings if I recall hence my opinion/statement.

 

If you really think Adams will score as many and or as regularly as Ings then you really need to reassess how you judge a footballer.  

But one of the dodgy things about Ings is you never know if and when he'll be fit to play 

[OldNick]

1 hour ago, stknowle said:

We should also make sure whoever we sign ain’t married…..

Interesting comment, is that on the back of info or am I missing something?

[Saint Martini]

9 hours ago, pimpin4rizeal said:

Thing is isn’t Adams now really our main physical hold up player .. I know he doesn’t have quite the same attributes as pelle but a lot of Adams best attributes seem to be his physicality and holding the ball up to play in the quicker faster guy (ings)

signing a big man kinda striker like sorloth might not get as well 

The thing with Sorlöth is that his playing style isn't "big man striker" but gets labelled as such because he is tall. I'd say his style is quite similar to Ings with a combination of dropping deep and making runs in behind. I think he actually would work quite well with Adams who is capable to play as aa traditional target- man.

[stevy777_x]

16 minutes ago, Saint Martini said:

The thing with Sorlöth is that his playing style isn't "big man striker" but gets labelled as such because he is tall. I'd say his style is quite similar to Ings with a combination of dropping deep and making runs in behind. I think he actually would work quite well with Adams who is capable to play as aa traditional target- man.

We need pace 

[TWar]

55 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

And considering Ings took the pens, probably not much in it. Ings did have a great goal/game ratio, but with only 12 goals last season shows why we had no real choice but to let him go for the stupid fee Villa gave us.

Made me think, how much is there in the non-penalty goals per 90 between our strikers so I made a table of non-penalty goals per 90 for our current forwards and four linked targets

• As we can see Ings is way out ahead, even his weaker seasons either side of his prolific season are ahead of Adams average by a fair margin.
• This shows Adams needs a good goal scorer next to him.
• Long, Redmond, Tella are not the answer from the limited sample we have here.
• Obafemi had a good season but the sample size was rather small of 661 minutes

Of the new guys to sign, Tammy would be ideal.

• Great numbers and also in the prem, actually a better prem average than Ings, so would be a super replacement. Unlikely though!
• If one assumes that the Scottish premier league is a similar strength to the Championship then Edouard is clearly stronger than Armstrong, although Armstrong's most recent season is significantly stronger so has form on his side
• Armstrong has a better championship season last year than Tammy did before he stepped up. His average is a bit lower but he was a little younger in his first season which brings it down a bit
• Sorloth is poor and we should steer well clear, even with his stint in the turkish super lig pulling up his stats he is still the worst option of the potential signings. His average outdoes Adams but not by significantly enough as a target man, especially considering the weaker league, therefore him next to Adams would likely be a very poor idea.

I might make another stats post about signings soon, want to let us make a few more though first as suspect there may be action before the first day of the season.

EDIT: Note, there is an error in Austin's average in the table, it is, ofcourse, 0.18 which puts him above Tella and Long. I didn't set the divide properly so did it manually and must have missed Chaz.

Edited 7 August, 2021 by TWar

[revolution saint]

14 minutes ago, TWar said:

Made me think, how much is there in the non-penalty goals per 90 between our strikers so I made a table of non-penalty goals per 90 for our current forwards and four linked targets

• As we can see Ings is way out ahead, even his weaker seasons either side of his prolific season are ahead of Adams average by a fair margin.
• This shows Adams needs a good goal scorer next to him.
• Long, Redmond, Tella are not the answer from the limited sample we have here.
• Obafemi had a good season but the sample size was rather small of 661 minutes

Of the new guys to sign, Tammy would be ideal.

• Great numbers and also in the prem, actually a better prem average than Ings, so would be a super replacement. Unlikely though!
• If one assumes that the Scottish premier league is a similar strength to the Championship then Edouard is clearly stronger than Armstrong, although Armstrong's most recent season is significantly stronger so has form on his side
• Armstrong has a better championship season last year than Tammy did before he stepped up. His average is a bit lower but he was a little younger in his first season which brings it down a bit
• Sorloth is poor and we should steer well clear, even with his stint in the turkish super lig pulling up his stats he is still the worst option of the potential signings. His average outdoes Adams but not by significantly enough as a target man, especially considering the weaker league, therefore him next to Adams would likely be a very poor idea.

I might make another stats post about signings soon, want to let us make a few more though first as suspect there may be action before the first day of the season.

EDIT: Note, there is an error in Austin's average in the table, it is, ofcourse, 0.18 which puts him above Tella and Long. I didn't set the divide properly so did it manually and must have missed Chaz.

All about context though innit?  I doubt Tella has anywhere near enough games to have a comparable dataset, most of his appearances were as sub and from recollection not all of them were as a central striker. Sorloth played out wide in his last season for RB Leipzig so you should really only be using his season in the Turkish league as comparison.  Armstrong plays for a struggling side in the championship, Tammy Abraham played for a Villa side in 18/19 that got promoted from the Championship so, again, there's mitigating factors. 

[Pamplemousse]

Sorloth would be a mistake.

I think our only chance of getting Abraham is on deadline day when nobody else has come in for him and Chelsea's best offer is our loan with an option (or even obligation) to buy

[TWar]

7 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

All about context though innit?  I doubt Tella has anywhere near enough games to have a comparable dataset, most of his appearances were as sub and from recollection not all of them were as a central striker. Sorloth played out wide in his last season for RB Leipzig so you should really only be using his season in the Turkish league as comparison.  Armstrong plays for a struggling side in the championship, Tammy Abraham played for a Villa side in 18/19 that got promoted from the Championship so, again, there's mitigating factors. 

Yeah 100%. Those are just the numbers but interpretation is obviously important. Tella does have a smaller sample size and also played a bit at attacking mid, as has Redmond, which no doubt disadvantages them. Plus Tella broke through last year, whereas most of the names on this list have been playing senior football for a lot longer. His potential probably hasn't been fully realised.

Your other points are equally good and worth considering. Although Transfermarkt does say Sorloth played primarily as a center forward for Leipzig with 26 games at CF and only one on the right wing (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/alexander-sorloth/leistungsdatendetails/spieler/238407/saison/2020/wettbewerb/L1/verein/23826). If/when I do a full stats analysis things like playing positions will be taken into account but I just threw this together in 20 mins so didn't really look too hard into normalising for position. Consider it more a guideline I guess.

Edited 7 August, 2021 by TWar

[Sunglasses Ron]

5 minutes ago, Pamplemousse said:

I think our only chance of getting Abraham is on deadline day when nobody else has come in for him and Chelsea's best offer is our loan with an option (or even obligation) to buy

We can’t afford to take that chance surely?

[S-Clarke]

28 minutes ago, Sunglasses Ron said:

We can’t afford to take that chance surely?

That's why I can see us getting a 'cheaper option' initially, and then biding our time until the last few days to see 'what occurs'.

I know it didn't work out, but Minamino was totally unexpected last season. No one would have thought that was a possible deal at the start of the window.

[gammon cheeks]

Having watched Armstrong a few times...... really looks the business! If you want a Ings replacement as a busy pacey striker who can score goals that will  fit into Ralphs system then its this guy ...i hope we can get a deal done!

Edited 7 August, 2021 by gammon cheeks

[Wade Garrett]

Got to say, Armstrong looks a very similar player to Ings.  I would take the chance and offer £20m (or include Obafemi and pay less).
I would rather play Tella up front than sign Sorloth.  

[MarkSFC]

1 minute ago, Wade Garrett said:

Got to say, Armstrong looks a very similar player to Ings.  I would take the chance and offer £20m (or include Obafemi and pay less).
I would rather play Tella up front than sign Sorloth.  

That sounds very harsh on Tella🤣

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, TWar said:

Made me think, how much is there in the non-penalty goals per 90 between our strikers so I made a table of non-penalty goals per 90 for our current forwards and four linked targets

• As we can see Ings is way out ahead, even his weaker seasons either side of his prolific season are ahead of Adams average by a fair margin.
• This shows Adams needs a good goal scorer next to him.
• Long, Redmond, Tella are not the answer from the limited sample we have here.
• Obafemi had a good season but the sample size was rather small of 661 minutes

Of the new guys to sign, Tammy would be ideal.

• Great numbers and also in the prem, actually a better prem average than Ings, so would be a super replacement. Unlikely though!
• If one assumes that the Scottish premier league is a similar strength to the Championship then Edouard is clearly stronger than Armstrong, although Armstrong's most recent season is significantly stronger so has form on his side
• Armstrong has a better championship season last year than Tammy did before he stepped up. His average is a bit lower but he was a little younger in his first season which brings it down a bit
• Sorloth is poor and we should steer well clear, even with his stint in the turkish super lig pulling up his stats he is still the worst option of the potential signings. His average outdoes Adams but not by significantly enough as a target man, especially considering the weaker league, therefore him next to Adams would likely be a very poor idea.

I might make another stats post about signings soon, want to let us make a few more though first as suspect there may be action before the first day of the season.

EDIT: Note, there is an error in Austin's average in the table, it is, ofcourse, 0.18 which puts him above Tella and Long. I didn't set the divide properly so did it manually and must have missed Chaz.

I apreciate the effort in this, but it's a flawed analysis and doesn't take account of the standard of opposition or tactics used. 

A more meaningful analysis would be each player's expected goals per 90 per season vs goals scored per 90 per season. That would highlight how good a finisher they really are. 

If you've got the time to do that as well it would be brilliant 😅😆

Edited 7 August, 2021 by Saint86

[TWar]

Just now, Saint86 said:

Apreciate the effort in this, but it's a flawed analysis and doesn't take account of the standard of opposition or tactics used. 

 

A more meaningful analysis would be each players expected goals per 90 per season vs goals scored per 90 per season. That would highlight how good a finisher they really are. 

Finishing isn't everything, the mark of a good striker is just as much getting into a position to finish as it is finishing. With regards to that though, if you want that check out my stat analysis for last season, I compare xG and finishing for our exisiting forwards. Will work on it for potential ones at some point when more free.

[Saint86]

4 minutes ago, TWar said:

Finishing isn't everything, the mark of a good striker is just as much getting into a position to finish as it is finishing. With regards to that though, if you want that check out my stat analysis for last season, I compare xG and finishing for our exisiting forwards. Will work on it for potential ones at some point when more free.

I agree that finishing isn't everything. But purely on a post that effectively deals with goals (albeit non penalty) scored per 90, expected goal conversion rate would be more useful (imo) across leagues and with different tactics. Ultimatley a penalty has a high expected goals weighting 🙂

But like I said apreciate the effort, love a good stats breakdown! Will look forward to the update. 

Edited 7 August, 2021 by Saint86

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, S-Clarke said:

That's why I can see us getting a 'cheaper option' initially, and then biding our time until the last few days to see 'what occurs'.

I know it didn't work out, but Minamino was totally unexpected last season. No one would have thought that was a possible deal at the start of the window.

Not possible? 

He was very meh.. I would not say no one thought it was possible, rather than an average player that never hit anyone's radar...

[stknowle]

2 hours ago, OldNick said:

Interesting comment, is that on the back of info or am I missing something?

Just a reference to the Duck's frequent lament that we have a team of son-in-laws.

[Lord Duckhunter]

52 minutes ago, TWar said:

Finishing isn't everything, the mark of a good striker is just as much getting into a position to finish as it is finishing. 

What a load of old pony. 

[TWar]

Just now, Lord Duckhunter said:

What a load of old pony. 

Seriously? So if a forward can shoot well it doesn't matter if they make good runs? Or take up good positions? Or find space?

Sometimes talking to you I wonder if you've even watched football...

[Lord Duckhunter]

1 minute ago, TWar said:

Seriously? So if a forward can shoot well it doesn't matter if they make good runs? Or take up good positions? Or find space?

Sometimes talking to you I wonder if you've even watched football...

I haven’t played much play station, but I’ve been watching finishers since Jimmy Greaves & Denis Law were around. You don’t need XG, PD or BFG to know who is a good striker, who can finish & who can’t. 
 

being a good striker isn’t just as much about getting into positions as it is finishing. A striker who keeps getting into good positions but keeps missing, is a shit striker. It’s not complicated 

[TWar]

2 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

being a good striker isn’t just as much about getting into positions as it is finishing. A striker who keeps getting into good positions but keeps missing, is a shit striker. It’s not complicated 

Similarly, a striker who can finish but is constantly marked, never makes the right runs, doesn't get into good positions is also a shit striker. That is also not complicated and doesn't require a playstation to understand... just a working brain.

A good striker requires both the ability to finish and the ability to make good runs and find space. I honestly can't see how you don't understand that.

Edited 7 August, 2021 by TWar

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, TWar said:

Similarly, a striker who can finish but is constantly marked, never makes the right runs, doesn't get into good positions is also a shit striker. That is also not complicated and doesn't require a playstation to understand... just a working brain.

A defender who can't necessarily defend, is still a good defender if he stays goals side

[CB Fry]

15 minutes ago, TWar said:

Similarly, a striker who can finish but is constantly marked, never makes the right runs, doesn't get into good positions is also a shit striker. That is also not complicated and doesn't require a playstation to understand... just a working brain.

A good striker requires both the ability to finish and the ability to make good runs and find space. I honestly can't see how you don't understand that.

How do you know if he is good at finishing or not if he is never in the right position to score?

[BERMUDASAINT]

14 hours ago, JRM said:

  15 hours ago, Dusic said:

Aside from goals, Ings was an absolute pressing machine. Would image that ability is high up on the list of required attributes, and not all strikers are capable of it.

This is what I was thinking, Ralf likes to press from the front, if the strikers do not do this then we are missing one of his core tactics. No hang at the top, walk around, let the defender walk past you.

FANNY Danny was great at the front press,  he knew how to squeeze the defender down one side into a trap or hustle them into a mistakes. 

Edit: I was not talking about Minamino.

Edited 7 August, 2021 by BERMUDASAINT

[TWar]

2 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

How do you know if he is good at finishing or not if he is never in the right position to score?

Because on the rare occasion they do end up with a chance, like if a talented player makes space for them with a run or pass, they do a good job with it.

[BERMUDASAINT]

7 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Starting in goal...Romero still on a free, 2 year contract get him in. 

Good shout  very solid keeper! Was hoping we could get him, but never mentioned in any rumors, and would he go from Manu to Saints?

[S-Clarke]

6 minutes ago, BERMUDASAINT said:

This is what I was thinking, Ralf likes to press from the front, if the strikers do not do this then we are missing one of his core tactics. No hang at the top, walk around, let the defender walk past you.

FANNY was great at the front press,  he knew how to squeeze the defender down one side into a trap or hustle them into a mistakes.  

Whilst Minamino did 'press', I always felt he lacked a lot of physicality to be really effective. He wasn't even that quick.

I wouldn't have him back tbh. I was just making that point that he'd probably have been seen as an unlikely addition given his 'profile' and high rating across Europe. Loan deals like him can crop up at the last min.

Also, fanny. seriously.

[Saint_lambden]

No Sorloth in Leipzig's squad today...

[SuperSAINT]

1 minute ago, Saint_lambden said:

No Sorloth in Leipzig's squad today...

Don’t know much about Sorloth. 
Can we get Lookman thrown in as well.  Pretty sure he’d be more effective than Moi.

[Turkish]

6 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Whilst Minamino did 'press', I always felt he lacked a lot of physicality to be really effective. He wasn't even that quick.

I wouldn't have him back tbh. I was just making that point that he'd probably have been seen as an unlikely addition given his 'profile' and high rating across Europe. Loan deals like him can crop up at the last min.

Also, fanny. seriously.

Me neither a couple of good finishes but generally offered very little other than an extra body during an injury crisis. Technically quite a decent player but lacking physically.

[stknowle]

22 minutes ago, TWar said:

Because on the rare occasion they do end up with a chance, like if a talented player makes space for them with a run or pass, they do a good job with it.

Interesting debate and I'm not sure what I would want less, a striker that gets into good positions and gets loads of chances but doesn't score many because he's a shit finisher*, or a striker that doesn't get into good positions very often but scores almost all of the chances he gets on the rare occasions that he does get into a good position. Ideally neither option should have parents-in-law.

*come to think of it we've sort of had that for several years now with Long!

[revolution saint]

23 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Loan deals like him can crop up at the last min.

Also, fanny. seriously.

Yeah, but the quality ain't always that good but beggars can't be choosers and all that.

[TWar]

Just now, stknowle said:

Interesting debate and I'm not sure what I would want less, a striker that gets into good positions and gets loads of chances but doesn't score many because he's a shit finisher*, or a striker that doesn't get into good positions very often but scores almost all of the chances he gets on the rare occasions that he does get into a good position. Ideally neither option should have parents-in-law.

*come to think of it we've sort of had that for several years now with Long!

Yeah it's a balance really. A striker who is clever and can make runs but can't finish will inevitably stick away a few tap ins. A striker who is bad positionally and never in the right spot but can finish will inevitably curl in a few worldies from 20 yards out. You need both to be a class forward though and they are pretty equally important imo. 

[TWar]

Adam Armstrong not in the Blackburn squad. Feel something may be about to happen. Judging by us saying we will cool interest and come back later I don't think this is good news, maybe off to Palace. Who knows though.

[Dusic]

Armstrong not in the Blackburn squad...clearly his move will be sorted in the next couple of days, with Palace looking likely at this point.

Surely when we sold Ings the club knew exactly what they were going to do, and which targets were gettable both in terms of fee and wages.

Re Sorloth, clearly the Palace spell didnt work out, but watching his highlights from Turkey and Leipzig he clearly knows how to finish. Interesting that it was Dan Sheldon who first mentioned him...quite a left field name to mention unless it came from a good source...

Edouard I don't see happening as he has been linked with Brighton all summer and in the last couple of days multiple reports suggest they have put in their first proper bid. Surely if we had been in for him we would have had a stronger link before now as the club knew Ings would be going this summer.

For all those mentioned so far, I reckon Sorloth is most likely.

Kind of strange that these are all very different types of striker too...surely we know what we want?

Edited 7 August, 2021 by Dusic

[egg]

4 minutes ago, stknowle said:

Interesting debate and I'm not sure what I would want less, a striker that gets into good positions and gets loads of chances but doesn't score many because he's a shit finisher*, or a striker that doesn't get into good positions very often but scores almost all of the chances he gets on the rare occasions that he does get into a good position. Ideally neither option should have parents-in-law.

*come to think of it we've sort of had that for several years now with Long!

I'm not that there's much to debate. Your Shane Long point is correct - a strikers primary job as to be able to finish. Anything less and they're a poor striker. 

[TWar]

Just now, egg said:

I'm not that there's much to debate. Your Shane Long point is correct - a strikers primary job as to be able to finish. Anything less and they're a poor striker. 

A strikers primary job is to score. Scoring a goal requires both the opportunity to take a shot and the ability for that shot to go in. I would far rather a player who was slightly worse at shooting but much better at making runs and getting in good positions to score from personally.

[egg]

Just now, TWar said:

A strikers primary job is to score. Scoring a goal requires both the opportunity to take a shot and the ability for that shot to go in. I would far rather a player who was slightly worse at shooting but much better at making runs and getting in good positions to score from personally.

That's nonsensical to me. Get in position and miss over and over. Pointless. If that was the hallmark of a good striker, we'd all be lauding Long as the saviour but we're not as he always misses, thus he's a shit striker.

[TWar]

Just now, egg said:

That's nonsensical to me. Get in position and miss over and over. Pointless. If that was the hallmark of a good striker, we'd all be lauding Long as the saviour but we're not as he always misses, thus he's a shit striker.

No because Long also doesn't get in good positions. The thing is it's very obvious when a player gets in a good position and misses but not so obvious when a player doesn't get in the good position in the first place but both of them don't lead to a goal. The hallmark of a good striker is both to get the ball in good positions and to put it away. I think you are being too "one or the other" about it. You need both.

[Wade Garrett]

3 minutes ago, Dusic said:

Armstrong not in the Blackburn squad...clearly his move will be sorted in the next couple of days, with Palace looking likely at this point.

Surely when we sold Ings the club knew exactly what they were going to do, and which targets were gettable both in terms of fee and wages.

Re Sorloth, clearly the Palace spell didnt work out, but watching his highlights from Turkey and Leipzig he clearly knows how to finish. Interesting that it was Dan Sheldon who first mentioned him...quite a left field name to mention unless it came from a good source...

Edouard I don't see happening as he has been linked with Brighton all summer and in the last couple of days multiple reports suggest they have put in their first proper bid. Surely if we had been in for him we would have had a stronger pink before now as the club knew Ings would be going this summer.

For all those mentioned so far, I reckon Sorloth is most likely.

Sorloth even looks shit on YouTube.  I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole.

[Sir Ralph]

If obafemi was part of any deal for Adam Armstrong he wouldn’t be playing today. Another indication he is off to palace. Would be hugely underwhelmed by sorloth. 

[SuperSAINT]

Well we know of the 2 missing strikers, Palace aren’t re-signing Sorloth.

[gammon cheeks]

33 minutes ago, Wade Garrett said:

Sorloth even looks shit on YouTube.  I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole.

He looks slow as fook !  Not a Ralph type player in my opinion.

[Chez]

On 05/08/2021 at 20:36, Matthew Le God said:

I think you need to watch some videos of him again, he beats lots of players for pace in them.

I don't agree with you. I think you need to watch some videos of him again. 

I have watched every goal he scored last season several times. There is one goal where he beats a guy for a pace and its a donkey QPR centre back. Being quicker than a slow player doesn't mean you have pace. 

He is sharp. But he ain't got genuine pace.  Doesn't mean we wont score goals. 

 

 

[Chez]

On 05/08/2021 at 21:54, S-Clarke said:

We have no money, that's why we can't replace before we sell.

 

has the £70m loan been spent on last years wages then?

[S-Clarke]

Just now, Chez said:

has the £70m loan been spent on last years wages then?

Not sure why this £70m loan keeps being brought up. We haven't got that loan to buy players, it's to cover all sorts of losses over forthcoming years, not just year 1 or year 2.

It may help with a little bit of flexibility in the market in some situations, but I've never, ever seen that loan as a loan to help us buy players. It's to sustain the club in light of the enormous losses seen last year.

[Chez]

On 06/08/2021 at 13:50, SKD said:

Pereira has left West Brom for a team in Saudi. What a shame, a real talent.. another who’d have been a good fit here and added much needed creativity in the 10. 

very surprised a Prem side didn't sign him. Seemed to improve as the season went on. Just the kind of flare we need IMO.