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Summer Transfer Window 2021


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27 minutes ago, tajjuk said:

He's basically Stuart Armstrong Mk2. probably similar age, experience and likely cost, similar position as well though I think he's a bit more of a playmaker 

Yeah agreed he is sort of in the same mould as our stuey I think this could be a nice bargain actually..Christie likes to shoot a lot as well,

my only concern is I’m not sure we would play him and stew in the first team together as the two number tens, would probably work better if we played at 4231 with one of those two in the hole 

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It is criminal that we haven’t sufficiently improved our defence after the garbage from last season.

Why we haven’t signed at least an experienced CB is beyond me.  This obsession with signing players of a very age that can be sold on in the future is a flawed policy and could easily relegate us.

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36 minutes ago, Wade Garrett said:

It is criminal that we haven’t sufficiently improved our defence after the garbage from last season.

Why we haven’t signed at least an experienced CB is beyond me.  This obsession with signing players of a very age that can be sold on in the future is a flawed policy and could easily relegate us.

Agreed. Ludicrous. Really fear for us and feels like a sinking ship

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53 minutes ago, Wade Garrett said:

It is criminal that we haven’t sufficiently improved our defence after the garbage from last season.

Why we haven’t signed at least an experienced CB is beyond me.  This obsession with signing players of a very age that can be sold on in the future is a flawed policy and could easily relegate us.

It’s disgusting. Club is setting itself up to fail and have another dismal season of little expectation and hope.

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1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

2) That makes no sense what so ever. 

Oh Matthew. It's not meant to be a literal statement of fact. It's just an opinion, a whimsical musing based on not very much other than a fleeting consideration of recent seasons when Burnley and Newcastle have both often been in and around the relegation fight, but each time have tended to be able to do enough to pull away. 

You know, the sort of light-hearted but ultimately throwaway comment you might make or hear when you're out, chatting in a pub, with a big group of mates. 

Ah. Actually I think I'm beginning to see why you didn't understand. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Ed Rooney said:

A565B1B4-4EA0-437A-9953-1DCDCEE84202.jpeg

Other than playing for Scotland (but so does Che as a benchmark )not sure how a good a player he is but he will certainly improve our chances of winning the 'Quasimodo impression'' trophy judging on this photo.

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2 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

1) Newcastle's squad really isn't great, let alone 'much more quality than us'. Burnley finished below us last season.

2) That makes no sense what so ever. 

Plus in any case both have had relatively recent relegations from the Premier League.

Surprised by this from you MLG. As often said in sales papers, past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Your standards are slipping.

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3 minutes ago, TWar said:

We need a keeper. Salisu is perfectly acceptable at CB. 

we could do with a ball player (dribbler, skills etc.) in the final third. Our attacking midfielders jus ain't all that. The Minamino loan signing last season makes me think we will try to do that again if the right player becomes available.

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6 minutes ago, Chez said:

we could do with a ball player (dribbler, skills etc.) in the final third. Our attacking midfielders jus ain't all that. The Minamino loan signing last season makes me think we will try to do that again if the right player becomes available.

Play Tino at right wing?

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15 minutes ago, TWar said:

We need a keeper. Salisu is perfectly acceptable at CB. 

Yep. This forum is a bit obsessed with getting a top CB as a solution to our defensive issues when the main reason for us conceding more goals than all but one team last season was our awful goalkeeping.

68 goals conceded from an xGA of 54.2. For comparison Aston Villa 46 goals conceded from an xGA of 52.9. Or Leeds 54 goals conceded from an xGA of 62.9.

9 minutes ago, Chez said:

we could do with a ball player (dribbler, skills etc.) in the final third. Our attacking midfielders jus ain't all that. The Minamino loan signing last season makes me think we will try to do that again if the right player becomes available.

 

3 minutes ago, Stubby said:

Play Tino at right wing?

Play 3 CB and push the wingbacks higher?

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Keeper is a position i feel we'll have to live with this  season, as are the multitude of erratic attacking mids.

DM and CB are the 2 positions that concern me. Not sure if Lyanco is meant to fill both. If that's the case my worry would be about his aerial ability, which doesn't look prominent in his highlight reel. If we're going to play 5-3-2 a bit more this season we're a bit light centrally with (soon to be 4 CB) & (4CM)

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7 hours ago, tajjuk said:

He's basically Stuart Armstrong Mk2. probably similar age, experience and likely cost, similar position as well though I think he's a bit more of a playmaker 

Yes, that was basically the report I read. That he would be SA's deputy. We don't need a SA deputy. We want to keep the original SA. Apparently his deal ends 31/12 so he could join us 1/1/22, but do we need him? 

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18 minutes ago, the saint in winchester said:

Yes, that was basically the report I read. That he would be SA's deputy. We don't need a SA deputy. We want to keep the original SA. Apparently his deal ends 31/12 so he could join us 1/1/22, but do we need him? 

Might be a good, cheap, squad filler. Better than Redmond? Probably.

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2 hours ago, Cartman said:

Yep. This forum is a bit obsessed with getting a top CB as a solution to our defensive issues

68 goals conceded from an xGA of 54.2. For comparison Aston Villa 46 goals conceded from an xGA of 52.9. Or Leeds 54 goals conceded from an xGA of 62.9.

 

 

WTF is this pony? 
 

45.76, 56.73 Xg, RLM,ILM. Pony. We need a centre half to kick it and head it, and someone in nets to keep the ball out. That’s it, it’s simple.. 

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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1 hour ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

WTF is this pony? 
 

45.76, 56.73 Xg, RLM,ILM. Pony. We need a centre half to kick it and head it, and someone in nets to keep the ball out. That’s it, it’s simple.. 

Simple, it tells us which one of those we need most, the bloke in the nets keeping the ball out or the one kicking and heading it. It shows Villa and Leeds have far better goalkeepers than us and that defensively their outfield players are no better than ours, Leeds in fact are quite a bit worse despite finishing in the top half. Basically our goalkeepers (McCarthy in particular) are almost entirely to blame for our poor defensive record last season, much more so than the CBs.

Or using the numbers:

Us: xGA - GA = 54.2 - 68 = -13.8

Villa: xGA-GA = 52.9 - 46 = 6.9

This means that if both us and Villa had an exactly average GK, they would have conceded 7 more goals and us 14 fewer. Which is the same as saying if we had Martínez we would have conceded 21 fewer goals.

The short version of this is: McCarthy is overrated on this forum, despite the general consensus being that he is crap. He is even worse than that.

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1 minute ago, Cartman said:

Simple, it tells us which one of those we need most, the bloke in the nets keeping the ball out or the one kicking and heading it. It shows Villa and Leeds have far better goalkeepers than us and that defensively their outfield players are no better than ours, Leeds in fact are quite a bit worse despite finishing in the top half. Basically our goalkeepers (McCarthy in particular) are almost entirely to blame for our poor defensive record last season, much more so than the CBs.

Or using the numbers:

Us: xGA - GA = 54.2 - 68 = -13.8

Villa: xGA-GA = 52.9 - 46 = 6.9

This means that if both us and Villa had an exactly average GK, they would have conceded 7 more goals and us 14 fewer. Which is the same as saying if we had Martínez we would have conceded 21 fewer goals.

The short version of this is: McCarthy is overrated on this forum, despite the general consensus being that he is crap. He is even worse than that.

I managed to work that out without any of that nonsense 

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16 minutes ago, Cartman said:

Simple, it tells us which one of those we need most, the bloke in the nets keeping the ball out or the one kicking and heading it. It shows Villa and Leeds have far better goalkeepers than us and that defensively their outfield players are no better than ours, Leeds in fact are quite a bit worse despite finishing in the top half. Basically our goalkeepers (McCarthy in particular) are almost entirely to blame for our poor defensive record last season, much more so than the CBs.

Or using the numbers:

Us: xGA - GA = 54.2 - 68 = -13.8

Villa: xGA-GA = 52.9 - 46 = 6.9

This means that if both us and Villa had an exactly average GK, they would have conceded 7 more goals and us 14 fewer. Which is the same as saying if we had Martínez we would have conceded 21 fewer goals.

The short version of this is: McCarthy is overrated on this forum, despite the general consensus being that he is crap. He is even worse than that.

I'm with Duck on this. Its pony.

We can see that our keepers are shit, and it's obvious to most that McCarthy is worse. We can all see that Villa, Leeds, Brighton, etc have better keepers. 

We can also all see that our CB's were poor. Dragged out wide Bednarek was a fish up a tree. We can see that the CB's at Villa, Leeds, Brighton, etc. are better.

We don't need stats when the issues are bloody obvious to anyone who's seen us play and has half a clue about football. 

Edited by egg
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Lower the number, the shitter our goalkeeper... three times worse than the nearest challenger!

Metric is post shot expected goals minus goals conceded per 90 (highlighted column, stats from 2020-21)

So it's the difference every game between how likely the goalkeeper is to save it based on the quality of the attackers chance compared with the actual number of goals they concede.

In other words 10.3 goals would've been 'prevented' if we had an average goalkeeper in net.

2edb23c0626f4931ca17333888bc7586.png

Edited by SambaMaverick
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3 minutes ago, SambaMaverick said:

Lower the number, the shitter our goalkeeper... three times worse than the nearest challenger!

Metric is post shot expected goals minus goals conceded per 90 (highlighted column, stats from 2020-21)

So it's the difference every game between how likely the goalkeeper is to save it based on the quality of the attackers chance compared with the actual number of goals they concede.

In other words 10.3 goals would've been 'prevented' if we had an average goalkeeper in net.

2edb23c0626f4931ca17333888bc7586.png

Does it assess each goal and someone independently analyse whether an average keeper would have kept it out? If it does, I can see the merit. Anything short of that, it's meaningless statistics. 

What it doesn't do is tell us that a coach and horses have driven through our midfielders and CB's and exposed the GK's time and time again. It's pretty obvious to me that if you do a better job of stopping shots, you'll get less goals, and focusing on just the keeper ignores other problems.

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11 minutes ago, egg said:

Does it assess each goal and someone independently analyse whether an average keeper would have kept it out? If it does, I can see the merit. Anything short of that, it's meaningless statistics. 

What it doesn't do is tell us that a coach and horses have driven through our midfielders and CB's and exposed the GK's time and time again. It's pretty obvious to me that if you do a better job of stopping shots, you'll get less goals, and focusing on just the keeper ignores other problems.

'Someone' doesn't assess each goal, but the metric does assess each shot after it is taken, which isolates this statistic to purely gauge the goalkeeper's shot-stopping ability, not the defence's ability to stop the opportunity in the first place. 

I personally think getting a keeper like Romero or Sam Johnstone in would give the defence a huge boost since it's painfully obvious that we're not going to spend big past Lyanco. We can't keep getting our good work undone by FF or AM.

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2 minutes ago, adriansfc said:

It's maybe not the fairest method of gauging them but I don't think anyone could argue with McCarthy being bottom could they? 

Judged against Forster, he's rubbish. Judged against our past premier league keepers, he's atrocious. He's a lon, long way behind the likes of Paul Jones and Maik Taylor, before you get to someone like Niemi. 

Then there's judging him against other premier league keepers. Last season Ramsdale, Areola and Johnstone were relegated. All are far superior to McCarthy. The only keeper I've barely seen is Bachmann at Watford. But every other club has at least one keeper who is far superior to McCarthy. 

We're massively underestimating the importance of the position. Bloody Romero was available for free ffs. We don't need to sign prospects there, we need experience and quality to come in and settle that defence. Right now we have a team that works hard and gets in the lead often, but knows soft goals will keep being conceded. Must be fucking demoralising. 

Cross purposes Adrian. I think McCarthy is shite - the point is that I don't need reams of stats to show that. 

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5 minutes ago, adriansfc said:

It's maybe not the fairest method of gauging them but I don't think anyone could argue with McCarthy being bottom could they? 

Judged against Forster, he's rubbish. Judged against our past premier league keepers, he's atrocious. He's a lon, long way behind the likes of Paul Jones and Maik Taylor, before you get to someone like Niemi. 

Then there's judging him against other premier league keepers. Last season Ramsdale, Areola and Johnstone were relegated. All are far superior to McCarthy. The only keeper I've barely seen is Bachmann at Watford. But every other club has at least one keeper who is far superior to McCarthy. 

We're massively underestimating the importance of the position. Bloody Romero was available for free ffs. We don't need to sign prospects there, we need experience and quality to come in and settle that defence. Right now we have a team that works hard and gets in the lead often, but knows soft goals will keep being conceded. Must be fucking demoralising. 

Nail on head. It’s an amazing bit of skills blindness, and the salt is rubbed into the wound by actually picking the worst keeper in the division ahead of the second worst

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Just now, SambaMaverick said:

'Someone' doesn't assess each goal, but the metric does assess each shot after it is taken, which isolates this statistic to purely gauge the goalkeeper's shot-stopping ability, not the defence's ability to stop the opportunity in the first place. 

I personally think getting a keeper like Romero or Sam Johnstone in would give the defence a huge boost since it's painfully obvious that we're not going to spend big past Lyanco. We can't keep getting our good work undone by FF or AM.

A stat that analyses a GK performance without analysing actual mistakes is utterly pointless.

I'm with you on the point that we need a better keeper, but the average fan doesn't need meaningless stats to tell them that. 

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9 minutes ago, adriansfc said:

It's maybe not the fairest method of gauging them but I don't think anyone could argue with McCarthy being bottom could they? 

Judged against Forster, he's rubbish. Judged against our past premier league keepers, he's atrocious. He's a lon, long way behind the likes of Paul Jones and Maik Taylor, before you get to someone like Niemi. 

Then there's judging him against other premier league keepers. Last season Ramsdale, Areola and Johnstone were relegated. All are far superior to McCarthy. The only keeper I've barely seen is Bachmann at Watford. But every other club has at least one keeper who is far superior to McCarthy. 

We're massively underestimating the importance of the position. Bloody Romero was available for free ffs. We don't need to sign prospects there, we need experience and quality to come in and settle that defence. Right now we have a team that works hard and gets in the lead often, but knows soft goals will keep being conceded. Must be fucking demoralising. 

Except free isn’t free. 

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10 minutes ago, egg said:

I'm with Duck on this. Its pony.

We can see that our keepers are shit, and it's obvious to most that McCarthy is worse. We can all see that Villa, Leeds, Brighton, etc have better keepers. 

We can also all see that our CB's were poor. Dragged out wide Bednarek was a fish up a tree. We can see that the CB's at Villa, Leeds, Brighton, etc. are better.

We don't need stats when the issues are bloody obvious to anyone who's seen us play and has half a clue about football. 

They are not, that's the point. Villa and Leeds having a better defensive record than us is because of Martínez and Meslier. In fact we defend better as a team than Leeds but are let down by McCarthy. Of the 109 GK to have played at least a third of the league minutes in the top 5 leagues McCarthy was rated at 103*.

What I am getting at is this: our CB are much better at doing CB things than our GK are at GK things. Getting a decent GK will result in a bigger improvement to our defensive record than any CB we could realistically get.

*Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed per 90 minutes: Better luck or ability to stop shots. PSxG is expected goals based on how likely the goalkeeper is to save the shot. It's nothing more than an improved version of save percentage by giving a higher value to shots that have a greater probability of going in.

Sort the table by /90. It makes for very grim reading.

https://fbref.com/en/comps/Big5/2020-2021/keepersadv/players/2020-2021-Big-5-European-Leagues-Stats

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3 minutes ago, Cartman said:

They are not, that's the point. Villa and Leeds having a better defensive record than us is because of Martínez and Meslier. In fact we defend better as a team than Leeds but are let down by McCarthy. Of the 109 GK to have played at least a third of the league minutes in the top 5 leagues McCarthy was rated at 103*.

What I am getting at is this: our CB are much better at doing CB things than our GK are at GK things. Getting a decent GK will result in a bigger improvement to our defensive record than any CB we could realistically get.

*Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed per 90 minutes: Better luck or ability to stop shots. PSxG is expected goals based on how likely the goalkeeper is to save the shot. It's nothing more than an improved version of save percentage by giving a higher value to shots that have a greater probability of going in.

Sort the table by /90. It makes for very grim reading.

https://fbref.com/en/comps/Big5/2020-2021/keepersadv/players/2020-2021-Big-5-European-Leagues-Stats

It is pointless. These are stats that do not actually analyse what a keeper does, what mistakes he's made, what shots should be kept out. Analyse all of that, and there's a point to it. 

You can't just focus on one area of the pitch. Our LB last year created next to nothing and gave us a lopsided team; our CM created little from open play; our CM got over run often; our CB's got done for pace time and time again; our manager failed to make changes, tactically or personnel wise ; etc

We were poor last year for many many reasons. Yes our GK's were shit - and we don't need stats to point out the obvious - but we wouldn't have done much better overall with a world beater in goal. 

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