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Matthew Le God

Matthew Le God

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Avenue_Saint said:

Sod anymore yanks or Chinese.

Give me Middle Eastern please.

 

5 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

Because Middle Eastern groups never have any issues affixed to them :) 

How about judge a takeover on its own merits rather than being for or against them based on sweeping generalisations of nationalities? 🤔😇

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SuperSAINT

SuperSAINT

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Turkish said:

any chance of a copy and paste please?

Joseph DaGrosa may be further away from buying Southampton than he was six months ago, but that doesn’t mean things have gone completely quiet on the takeover front at St Mary’s.

The American investor this week told The Athletic that he wants Gao Jisheng, Southampton’s majority shareholder, to lower his asking price. It’s believed the Chinese business mogul is seeking £160 million for the 80 per cent stake in the club he purchased from Katharina Liebherr in 2017.

But now DaGrosa’s exclusivity period with Gao has ended, it means other parties can step forward and explore the possibility of purchasing the St Mary’s side.

So, with the former Bordeaux owner no longer the front runner, where does that leave Southampton?

The Athletic answers the key questions…

Why wasn’t DaGrosa’s bid successful?

It’s difficult to be certain on this, but we do know that DaGrosa has secured funding from two American investment firms: Ares Capital Corporation and Munro Capital Inc.

It’s abundantly clear that Gao wants to sell his stake in Southampton, so why hasn’t it been sold to DaGrosa’s Kapital Football Group?

From his interview with The Athletic, you get the sense that the American believes Southampton are overpriced. He believes the combination of a global pandemic, the fact the club has a £76 million loan from MSD Capital, and the expectation its financial struggles will persist for as long as fans are locked out of matches, should knock around £50 million off the asking price.

With the latest set of accounts revealing nearly £80 million worth of debt, buying the football club at £160 million will essentially cost £240 million. You then need to have additional funds to start investing once you’ve made the purchase.

The period of exclusivity, which DaGrosa paid a deposit for and subsequently lost a portion of, allowed him to study the club’s books in great detail. He was able to pore over all the financials, so he should know the current forecast better than any other potential buyer.

And we are now in a situation where he wants money taken off the asking price but, in reality, Premier League clubs don’t come cheap.

Were there reservations about how the American would finance such a deal?

The specifics of any deal will remain bound by non-disclosure agreements. This is something both parties sign at the start of the process and it prevents them from discussing it openly with others.

However, when any potential takeover is going to be leveraged by investment companies, there is naturally going to be an element of concern.

The first thing to consider in any such buyout is how much say these firms will have. The football club is owned in name by another group, but if a significant amount of money has been provided by another party, will they not want to be involved?

Another factor is who services that debt.  In theory, the debt should sit with the buying group. For example, Southampton Football Club is responsible for the £7 million interest payment they will need to make to MSD Capital every year. But in a leveraged takeover, technically speaking, the money hasn’t been lent to the selling club. It has been dished out to the buying group. With this in mind, should a football club then be liable for servicing a debt they didn’t need or want? And what happens if the club is paying the loan but then gets relegated?

It is certainly a grey area.

And if an investor is lent the money to buy several clubs, what conditions will be put on that loan to guarantee it will be returned?

One could be to lower the overall cost base, which could mean selling players and not replace them in a like-for-like manner. The key is to reduce the budget to make a profit and service the debt.

What does DaGrosa want to do with Southampton?

DaGrosa’s idea isn’t unique — but it’s one Southampton like: think City Football Group on a smaller scale. The American investor wants to create a network of football clubs across the world.

Southampton in this model would be the “anchor club”, and would sit in the middle of Kapital Football Group. They would then be linked with three to five satellite clubs and up to nine academies across the world.

The issue with his plan and Southampton comes down to funding and long-term financing. Is it going to be sustainable?

Should Gao be lowering his asking price?

It’s almost like selling a house, just with bigger figures involved.

You would expect Gao to have set his stall out in terms of an asking price, and he is going to want to stick to that. Potential buyers will be told this figure at the start of the buying process and then it’s their prerogative to knock that price down.

The club’s majority shareholder hasn’t made his fortune by being a weak negotiator, but if it becomes clear that £160m is a step too far for many investors then a conversation would surely need to be had.

Despite the current circumstances — and you’d think they would have an impact on the asking price — Gao wants his valuation to be met.

One other factor to consider here is, politically, Gao will probably want to save face in China. He won’t want to be the investor that bought a Premier League football club and lost money on it.

Are there any other investors showing an interest?

There are at least two American groups The Athletic is aware of. Several buyers from across Europe are also in the frame along with a Middle Eastern group.

Buyers are always around but nobody is ahead of anyone else at this point.

Since DaGrosa, The Athleticunderstands nobody has entered into a period of exclusivity, although one American group has a strong chance of getting there.

What next?

Southampton are still at the early stages of selling Gao’s 80 per cent stake, although now DaGrosa no longer has exclusivity it could speed up the process.

They are often inundated with calls about a possible sale but some checks and balances need to be carried out before talks can advance beyond the first hurdle. Factors considered at this point include where the money is coming from, whether the buyer fits into the club’s strategy, and whether they are “fit and proper”.

If those boxes are all ticked, a serious dialogue is there to be had. But finding someone who ticks all those boxes is difficult. The good ones often pull out once they realise what buying a football club means and learn it’s a risky investment.

One purpose of the MSD Capital loan is to also make the takeover process a non-critical decision. It gives Southampton the time to find the right buyer and not just sell to the first person that comes calling.

In the future, Southampton will undoubtedly reach a point where selling becomes critical. The hope, however, is that a credible buyer will come forward before that happens.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

The Athletic: "In the future, Southampton will undoubtedly reach a point where selling becomes critical."

I may be missing something here, but why would Gao not selling eventually lead to a 'critical' situation?

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tajjuk

tajjuk

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

What next?

Southampton are still at the early stages of selling Gao’s 80 per cent stake, although now DaGrosa no longer has exclusivity it could speed up the process.

They are often inundated with calls about a possible sale but some checks and balances need to be carried out before talks can advance beyond the first hurdle. Factors considered at this point include where the money is coming from, whether the buyer fits into the club’s strategy, and whether they are “fit and proper”.

If those boxes are all ticked, a serious dialogue is there to be had. But finding someone who ticks all those boxes is difficult. The good ones often pull out once they realise what buying a football club means and learn it’s a risky investment.

One purpose of the MSD Capital loan is to also make the takeover process a non-critical decision. It gives Southampton the time to find the right buyer and not just sell to the first person that comes calling.

In the future, Southampton will undoubtedly reach a point where selling becomes critical. The hope, however, is that a credible buyer will come forward before that happens.

 

This end part seems contradictory to me, surely Gao wants out and wants his money, so if someone meets his asking price he'll be very unlikely to turn that down regardless of how suitable they are.

 

The De Grossa idea sounds fine, potentially good for the club to be at the centre of a group of clubs, but City did it with huge resources not loans, that the big issue. 

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Suhari

Suhari

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

Since DaGrosa, The Athleticunderstands nobody has entered into a period of exclusivity, although one American group has a strong chance of getting there.

Exclusivity is when the interested party has agreed a deal in principle with Gao, and pays (in effect) a deposit in order to look in more detail at financials etc, and aim the 'cross the Ts and dot the Is' of the purchase.  Right?

Curious how often exclusivity is reached and a deal NOT finalised? Is that unusual or common in these types of deals?

Anyone got any idea who the America Group might be?

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benjii

benjii

Posted
Posted (edited)

The only way to achieve sustained PL success is by spunking money as part of a vanity project, and for that you need multi-billionaires. That's just a fact. You are about to witness two of the most expensive mid-table mediocrity campaigns in history thanks to Everton and Villa.

The best way to generate a return on an English football club is to do what Markus did and buy a lower league team with good infrastructure cheaply and then do what Kat did and get rid ASAP once in the PL.

Frankly, any takeover financed through investments from private equity or similar is doomed to failure if it doesn't flip the club on to someone else within a few years and whether that happens to plan or not will be more down to luck than judgment.

Plans to create an international web of clubs sound nice - and I guess it's an upgrade on Gao's "vision", which is non-existent - but won't create any kind of meaningful brand and won't have a direct impact on the first team. Unless we spaff significant amounts of money on the first team we will be a mid-table club who might occasionally have a good season but may also get relegated the next.

I don't rate Gao at all, as an owner, but he does at least have skin in the game. I would rather him than a cabal of people with less to lose as individuals being spun meaningless visions by a Yank who probably doesn't really understand the game in England at all.  

I'd actually be up for a ramshackle, "fan on the board", fans co-op structure for a few years. Won't happen, but would be a laugh and would connect the club back to the community. It would lead to relegation, but that will happen sooner or later anyway.

Edited by benjii
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SuperSAINT

SuperSAINT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Suhari said:

Exclusivity is when the interested party has agreed a deal in principle with Gao, and pays (in effect) a deposit in order to look in more detail at financials etc, and aim the 'cross the Ts and dot the Is' of the purchase.  Right?

Curious how often exclusivity is reached and a deal NOT finalised? Is that unusual or common in these types of deals?

Anyone got any idea who the America Group might be?

Didn’t Pinnacle back in the day?

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, benjii said:

The only way to achieve sustained PL success is by spunking money as part of a vanity project, and for that you need multi-billionaires. That's just a fact. You are about to witness two of the most expensive mid-table mediocrity campaigns in history thanks to Everton and Villa.

The best way to generate a return on an English football club is to do what Markus did and buy a lower league team with good infrastructure cheaply and then do what Kat did and get rid ASAP once in the PL.

Frankly, any takeover financed through investments from private equity or similar is doomed to failure if it doesn't flip the club on to someone else within a few years and whether that happens to plan or not will be more down to luck than judgment.

Plans to create an international web of clubs sound nice - and I guess it's an upgrade on Gao's "vision", which is non-existent - but won't create any kind of meaningful brand and won't have a direct impact on the first team. Unless we spaff significant amounts of money on the first team we will be a mid-table club who might occasionally have a good season but may also get relegated the next.

I don't rate Gao at all, as an owner, but he does at least have skin in the game. I would rather him than a cabal of people with less to lose as individuals being spun meaningless visions by a Yank who probably doesn't really understand the game in England at all.  

I'd actually be up for a ramshackle, "fan on the board", fans co-op structure for a few years. Won't happen, but would be a laugh and would connect the club back to the community. It would lead to relegation, but that will happen sooner or later anyway.

Thinking outside of the box, perhaps we need another relegation / brush-with-extinction event in order to make us more attractive to another Markus type owner? Isn't that how nature works? Out of a forest fire comes new and more vibrant life...

Yours philosophically.... :)

 

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Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SuperSAINT said:

Joseph DaGrosa may be further away from buying Southampton than he was six months ago, but that doesn’t mean things have gone completely quiet on the takeover front at St Mary’s.

The American investor this week told The Athletic that he wants Gao Jisheng, Southampton’s majority shareholder, to lower his asking price. It’s believed the Chinese business mogul is seeking £160 million for the 80 per cent stake in the club he purchased from Katharina Liebherr in 2017.

But now DaGrosa’s exclusivity period with Gao has ended, it means other parties can step forward and explore the possibility of purchasing the St Mary’s side.

So, with the former Bordeaux owner no longer the front runner, where does that leave Southampton?

The Athletic answers the key questions…

Why wasn’t DaGrosa’s bid successful?

It’s difficult to be certain on this, but we do know that DaGrosa has secured funding from two American investment firms: Ares Capital Corporation and Munro Capital Inc.

It’s abundantly clear that Gao wants to sell his stake in Southampton, so why hasn’t it been sold to DaGrosa’s Kapital Football Group?

From his interview with The Athletic, you get the sense that the American believes Southampton are overpriced. He believes the combination of a global pandemic, the fact the club has a £76 million loan from MSD Capital, and the expectation its financial struggles will persist for as long as fans are locked out of matches, should knock around £50 million off the asking price.

With the latest set of accounts revealing nearly £80 million worth of debt, buying the football club at £160 million will essentially cost £240 million. You then need to have additional funds to start investing once you’ve made the purchase.

The period of exclusivity, which DaGrosa paid a deposit for and subsequently lost a portion of, allowed him to study the club’s books in great detail. He was able to pore over all the financials, so he should know the current forecast better than any other potential buyer.

And we are now in a situation where he wants money taken off the asking price but, in reality, Premier League clubs don’t come cheap.

Were there reservations about how the American would finance such a deal?

The specifics of any deal will remain bound by non-disclosure agreements. This is something both parties sign at the start of the process and it prevents them from discussing it openly with others.

However, when any potential takeover is going to be leveraged by investment companies, there is naturally going to be an element of concern.

The first thing to consider in any such buyout is how much say these firms will have. The football club is owned in name by another group, but if a significant amount of money has been provided by another party, will they not want to be involved?

Another factor is who services that debt.  In theory, the debt should sit with the buying group. For example, Southampton Football Club is responsible for the £7 million interest payment they will need to make to MSD Capital every year. But in a leveraged takeover, technically speaking, the money hasn’t been lent to the selling club. It has been dished out to the buying group. With this in mind, should a football club then be liable for servicing a debt they didn’t need or want? And what happens if the club is paying the loan but then gets relegated?

It is certainly a grey area.

And if an investor is lent the money to buy several clubs, what conditions will be put on that loan to guarantee it will be returned?

One could be to lower the overall cost base, which could mean selling players and not replace them in a like-for-like manner. The key is to reduce the budget to make a profit and service the debt.

What does DaGrosa want to do with Southampton?

DaGrosa’s idea isn’t unique — but it’s one Southampton like: think City Football Group on a smaller scale. The American investor wants to create a network of football clubs across the world.

Southampton in this model would be the “anchor club”, and would sit in the middle of Kapital Football Group. They would then be linked with three to five satellite clubs and up to nine academies across the world.

The issue with his plan and Southampton comes down to funding and long-term financing. Is it going to be sustainable?

Should Gao be lowering his asking price?

It’s almost like selling a house, just with bigger figures involved.

You would expect Gao to have set his stall out in terms of an asking price, and he is going to want to stick to that. Potential buyers will be told this figure at the start of the buying process and then it’s their prerogative to knock that price down.

The club’s majority shareholder hasn’t made his fortune by being a weak negotiator, but if it becomes clear that £160m is a step too far for many investors then a conversation would surely need to be had.

Despite the current circumstances — and you’d think they would have an impact on the asking price — Gao wants his valuation to be met.

One other factor to consider here is, politically, Gao will probably want to save face in China. He won’t want to be the investor that bought a Premier League football club and lost money on it.

Are there any other investors showing an interest?

There are at least two American groups The Athletic is aware of. Several buyers from across Europe are also in the frame along with a Middle Eastern group.

Buyers are always around but nobody is ahead of anyone else at this point.

Since DaGrosa, The Athleticunderstands nobody has entered into a period of exclusivity, although one American group has a strong chance of getting there.

What next?

Southampton are still at the early stages of selling Gao’s 80 per cent stake, although now DaGrosa no longer has exclusivity it could speed up the process.

They are often inundated with calls about a possible sale but some checks and balances need to be carried out before talks can advance beyond the first hurdle. Factors considered at this point include where the money is coming from, whether the buyer fits into the club’s strategy, and whether they are “fit and proper”.

If those boxes are all ticked, a serious dialogue is there to be had. But finding someone who ticks all those boxes is difficult. The good ones often pull out once they realise what buying a football club means and learn it’s a risky investment.

One purpose of the MSD Capital loan is to also make the takeover process a non-critical decision. It gives Southampton the time to find the right buyer and not just sell to the first person that comes calling.

In the future, Southampton will undoubtedly reach a point where selling becomes critical. The hope, however, is that a credible buyer will come forward before that happens.

thanks pal

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Golac's Cunning Stunts

Golac's Cunning Stunts

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, benjii said:

The only way to achieve sustained PL success is by spunking money as part of a vanity project, and for that you need multi-billionaires. That's just a fact. You are about to witness two of the most expensive mid-table mediocrity campaigns in history thanks to Everton and Villa.

The best way to generate a return on an English football club is to do what Markus did and buy a lower league team with good infrastructure cheaply and then do what Kat did and get rid ASAP once in the PL.

Frankly, any takeover financed through investments from private equity or similar is doomed to failure if it doesn't flip the club on to someone else within a few years and whether that happens to plan or not will be more down to luck than judgment.

Plans to create an international web of clubs sound nice - and I guess it's an upgrade on Gao's "vision", which is non-existent - but won't create any kind of meaningful brand and won't have a direct impact on the first team. Unless we spaff significant amounts of money on the first team we will be a mid-table club who might occasionally have a good season but may also get relegated the next.

I don't rate Gao at all, as an owner, but he does at least have skin in the game. I would rather him than a cabal of people with less to lose as individuals being spun meaningless visions by a Yank who probably doesn't really understand the game in England at all.  

I'd actually be up for a ramshackle, "fan on the board", fans co-op structure for a few years. Won't happen, but would be a laugh and would connect the club back to the community. It would lead to relegation, but that will happen sooner or later anyway.

Couldn't agree more. This is the reason I started following lower league / non league football a few years back. Those clubs are connected to community and generally you watch them for the love of the game and the crack, not some corporate sham or some misguided hope that Saints can actually challenge the big 6 in some sustained fashion.

You're exactly right "might occasionally have a good season but may also get relegated the next". In fact, we seem able to do both those things in the same season. 

A year or so back, I went to watch Brentford v Blackburn. Was absolutely cracking game and atmosphere. Old time ground with a pub at each corner and both sets of fans enjoying a beer before and after the game. Sadly Griffin Park is no more and even a team like Brentford has moved away from it's core community. Very sad.

Can't wait to get back to ground hopping - experiencing football as it was it intended.

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Fan The Flames

Fan The Flames

Posted
Posted
On 10/02/2021 at 11:17, Golac's Cunning Stunts said:

Couldn't agree more. This is the reason I started following lower league / non league football a few years back. Those clubs are connected to community and generally you watch them for the love of the game and the crack, not some corporate sham or some misguided hope that Saints can actually challenge the big 6 in some sustained fashion.

You're exactly right "might occasionally have a good season but may also get relegated the next". In fact, we seem able to do both those things in the same season. 

A year or so back, I went to watch Brentford v Blackburn. Was absolutely cracking game and atmosphere. Old time ground with a pub at each corner and both sets of fans enjoying a beer before and after the game. Sadly Griffin Park is no more and even a team like Brentford has moved away from it's core community. Very sad.

Can't wait to get back to ground hopping - experiencing football as it was it intended.

I bet there aren't many Brentford fans complaining at the moment, their best period of football in my 45 years of following football. And the new ground, modest in size (17500) is a stones throw from Griffin Park.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, SuperSAINT said:

Also interesting he says Gao did the exclusivity deal without going through the football club.

Yeah, bit of an odd one. I may have imagined this somewhere along the line but did I read/hear once upon a time that Katharina's 20% share holding entitles her to veto the purchase of Gao's 80% if she doesn't approve of who the buyer is?  Probably my memory playing tricks on me. 

Edited by trousers
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SuperSAINT

SuperSAINT

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, trousers said:

Yeah, bit of an odd one. I may have imagined this somewhere along the line but did I read/hear once upon a time that Katharina's 20% share holding entitles her to veto the purchase of Gap's 80% if she doesn't approve of who the buyer is?  Probably my memory playing tricks on me. 

I vaguely remember that.  Wasn’t that from a Sam Wallace article in the telegraph? 

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Suhari

Suhari

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

I think Adam misses a point.  I’m not sure the club has much of a choice.  Gao is unlikely to care who’s suitable or where the money comes from as long as he gets his money.

A very valid concern I would suggest.

Let's hope that Kat does have some power of veto, and that she has a sense of 'what is best for the club' remaining in her somewhere.

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Raging Bull

Raging Bull

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, trousers said:

Yeah, bit of an odd one. I may have imagined this somewhere along the line but did I read/hear once upon a time that Katharina's 20% share holding entitles her to veto the purchase of Gap's 80% if she doesn't approve of who the buyer is?  Probably my memory playing tricks on me. 

This was certainly reported when the takeover happened, but I’m not sure how she can stop the majority shareholder from doing whatever he wants. 

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Wurzel

Wurzel

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Raging Bull said:

This was certainly reported when the takeover happened, but I’m not sure how she can stop the majority shareholder from doing whatever he wants. 

Definitely possible, just depends whether it was actually written into the agreement.

Quote

Power of veto

Minority shareholders can, with suitable changes to the articles or shareholders agreement, be given powers of veto.  A power of veto can be used to block actions unless the minority consents.  For example, a minority shareholder could be given the power to block:

  • Business sales and mergers;
  • Expenditure above prescribed limits;
  • Winding up or voluntary liquidation;
  • Large scale investment;
  • New business avenues; and
  • The sale of a substantial shareholding if similar terms are not offered to the minority.

https://www.gannons.co.uk/shareholder-rights/minority-shareholders/

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Verbal

Verbal

Posted
Posted
On 10/02/2021 at 09:39, trousers said:

"Calling HelpMeRhonda, LifelongSaint and Tommac to the Takeover Saga thread. HelpMeRhonda, LifelongSaint and Tommac to the Takeover Saga thread please."

(Mods: I reckon we should change the thread title just for old time's sake :) )

Oh god, no.  

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supersonic

supersonic

Posted
Posted

I wonder whether any particular deals are solely for Gao's 80% or whether Kat would be tempted to enter into negotiations for her 20%?

 

Personally I think it she feels somewhat forced to keep a share in the club due to her father's legacy, but I get the impression it's a slight chore for her.

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Fan The Flames

Fan The Flames

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, supersonic said:

I wonder whether any particular deals are solely for Gao's 80% or whether Kat would be tempted to enter into negotiations for her 20%?

 

Personally I think it she feels somewhat forced to keep a share in the club due to her father's legacy, but I get the impression it's a slight chore for her.

She didn't keep a share in the club for her father's legacy, but because Gao couldn't afford to buy 100%.

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East Kent Saint

East Kent Saint

Posted
Posted

They have missed the point that Before Gao could go through with the deal the Chinese dictatorship decreed that large sums of money could not be taken out of China to buy football clubs in the west so GAO had to raise the money from elsewhere to buy the Saints hence no money to invest in players or vast building developments .

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Ted Bates Statue

Ted Bates Statue

Posted
Posted
On 01/03/2021 at 09:26, Master Bates said:

In a move that will send shockwaves around the Premier League and indeed Europe, Chinese company Suning have announced they are pulling the plug on their footballing operations.

https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/southampton/news/54378/

Off on a tangent but Inter are on a bit of a precipice as they chase the title. Their owners want £750M before they sell up and in the meantime, players and transfer fees aren't being paid. Of course getting UCL qualification would help, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they could yet get penalised with a relegation or three.

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John D

John D

Posted
Posted

I wonder what the terms are on the loan Gao used to buy the club. 

Doesn't look like interest is being serviced by the club through dividends etc at the moment.

 

But may be repayable in next few years which may force his hand re any sale. 

 

 

 

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SKD

SKD

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, John D said:

I wonder what the terms are on the loan Gao used to buy the club. 

Doesn't look like interest is being serviced by the club through dividends etc at the moment.

 

But may be repayable in next few years which may force his hand re any sale. 

 

 

 

Gao doesn’t need his hand forced, he needs a realistic, interested party. It’s widely been reported that we’re for sale and have been for some time. 

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John D

John D

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, SKD said:

Gao doesn’t need his hand forced, he needs a realistic, interested party. It’s widely been reported that we’re for sale and have been for some time. 

What I meant was that his hand may be forced to accept a lower price if he has pressure on him to repay a loan. 

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