Mohammed Salisu - Official: Signs for Monaco

[Killers Knee]

They can put strength & conditioning facilities in his house with minimal cost/effort, I would guess his issue isn't muscle related but aerobic.

[Jonnyboy]

Sounds like we f*cked up and bought a dud. Buyer beware. 

[Matthew Le God]

6 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Sounds like we f*cked up and bought a dud. Buyer beware. 

Not sure how you've worked that out

Edited 19 January, 2021 by Matthew Le God

[Jonnyboy]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Not sure how you've worked that out

Done my own research. 

[S-Clarke]

17 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

Sounds like we f*cked up and bought a dud. Buyer beware. 

Given the standard of our recruitment over the last 4/5 years, it is probably the most obvious explanation.

[Convict Colony]

On 19/01/2021 at 15:04, Shance said:

I've honestly never seen anything like this before. 

Yeah this is crazy now.

Fofana at Leicester started from day 1

 

 

 

 

[SuperSAINT]

Just now, Convict Colony said:

Yeah this is crazy now.

Fofana at Leicester started from day 1

 

 

 

 

£30m-40m at least guarantees you a player who’s fit these days

[Mystic Force]

On the balance of probability over recent times, it is more likely that this will have been a non productive use of 10 million quid than a productive use thereof.

[Matthew Le God]

7 minutes ago, Mystic Force said:

On the balance of probability over recent times, it is more likely that this will have been a non productive use of 10 million quid than a productive use thereof.

Not sure how you've worked that out via probability. 

[Saint86]

Are the ITKs are keeping stum on this one? That in itself is interesting.

[Hodgey]

It’s mental - and does suggest an educated gamble by our recruitment team. im also confused why some posters have been so adamant that he is going to be the next big thing / future of our club having never seen him play for us ! 

For those Stephens haters out there - can I point out that he is playing, injury free, keeping clean sheets, and if he wasn’t we’d have been without a cb (even if he hasn’t had one good season in la liga and once marked Messi etc)

[egg]

1 hour ago, Saint86 said:

Are the ITKs are keeping stum on this one? That in itself is interesting.

No. Read LeG's various posts. 

[VectisSaint]

On 19/01/2021 at 18:04, Killers Knee said:

They can put strength & conditioning facilities in his house with minimal cost/effort, I would guess his issue isn't muscle related but aerobic.

Maybe its because he can't eat together with the other players. Ralph said that was a problem because of Covid. The other things cryo-chamber, sauna, even swimming pool could be covered elsewhere or at his home, but eating with the other players is not simple to replicate.

 

 

😏

[Fatboy40]

11 hours ago, VectisSaint said:

Maybe its because he can't eat together with the other players...

If the root cause is this then it's absolutely ridiculous, he's been with us since summer 2020 and he's an adult FFS!

[Diabolus Ex Machina]

I still have a theory that there was some sort of unannounced suspension for the first 3 months (perhaps something appearing in the medical that shouldn't have?). Would explain his training but not playing even for the B team. Suspension ends - straight onto bench as he has impressed but don't want him jumping the queue ahead of Bednarek and Stephens (who at the time had something like 3 clean sheets in a row) and has now picked up an unfortunate training injury that means he can't be involved again. I expect it's just a matter of time until we get to see him playing and see what he's made of but all noise seems to suggest Saints see him as a big part of the future still. Only a theory however.

[Toussaint]

17 hours ago, Mystic Force said:

On the balance of probability over recent times, it is more likely that this will have been a non productive use of 10 million quid than a productive use thereof.

Huh?

Edited 21 January, 2021 by Toussaint

[VectisSaint]

2 hours ago, Fatboy40 said:

If the root cause is this then it's absolutely ridiculous, he's been with us since summer 2020 and he's an adult FFS!

You didn't quote the winky thing from my post. 😉

[Mystic Force]

18 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Not sure how you've worked that out via probability. 

X= The number of transfers for 10-20million pound players since Mitchell left that have become successful (Criteria for success being sold for more money than purchased, playing regularly and having positive impact, not being put out on loan)

Y=  Total number of players in the10-20 million pound range since Mitchell left.

X/Y=p

I think you will find that "p" has not been so good recently, so if we have not seen something yet, we are probably not going to. 

 

If we apply Bayes theorem this will give us our prior probability as the reference class (portion of successful transfers) then we combine the posterior probability (anything that Salisu has done, which is currently nothing to indicate either way) therefore we can deduce that it will more likely be a non productive transfer. And anything Salisu is capable of does not figure in to the prior probability, but if it did you would have to remove it from the posterior probability thereby making no difference.

Edited 21 January, 2021 by Mystic Force
adding additional information

[Matthew Le God]

3 minutes ago, Mystic Force said:

X= The number of transfers for 10-20million pound players since Mitchell left that have become successful (Criteria for success being sold for more money than purchased, playing regularly and having positive impact, not being put out on loan)

Y=  Total number of players in the10-20 million pound range since Mitchell left.

X/Y=p

I think you will find that "p" has not been so good recently, so if we have not seen something yet, we are probably not going to. 

Completely flawed as none of those players is Salisu. Probability cannot be worked out for the event.

Edited 21 January, 2021 by Matthew Le God

[Saint_clark]

Whole thing is just utterly bizarre. 

[LGTL]

I'm most surprised that anyone is surprised that it's turned out like this. 

[SKD]

Expect there was a reason he was cheap and looks like we’ve found it. Must be injury related and the club have no idea what it is, hence the radio silence. 

A very strange situation. 

 

[Turkish]

whoops, wrong thread

Edited 21 January, 2021 by Turkish

[SFC Forever]

Having heard little or nothing I shall continue to keep the faith. If Ralph has not yet given up on him why should we.

[Fatboy40]

3 hours ago, VectisSaint said:

You didn't quote the winky thing from my post. 😉

Keep your "winky thing" to yourself please 😲

[hackedoff]

Another bit of deadwood the club will have to hawk out on loan next summer.

Edited 21 January, 2021 by hackedoff

[Minsk]

We really do have some bedwetters on this forum don't we? Something I was reminded of reading the match thread on Tuesday.

Why don't people want to believe what Ralph has told us? When has he ever lied?

Salisu joined with a long term muscle problem. We took our time to ease him up to speed. There wasn't any rush as Vestergard was having a blinding start to the season, and we had Stephens on the bench. Salisu got up to full fitness. Jannik got injured. Ralph chose Jack to start alongside Bednarek. Clean sheets in first 2 games together. Salisu had been on the bench. Salisu then picked up an injury in training. He is now out injured. As it happens we haven't needed him yet. No big deal. Have some patience. Change the sheets. Get some Tenna pants!

[Matthew Le God]

1 hour ago, hackedoff said:

Another bit of deadwood the club will have to hawk out on loan next summer.

You've never seen him play. Yet you've written him off! 🙄

[egg]

9 minutes ago, Minsk said:

We really do have some bedwetters on this forum don't we? Something I was reminded of reading the match thread on Tuesday.

Why don't people want to believe what Ralph has told us? When has he ever lied?

Salisu joined with a long term muscle problem. We took our time to ease him up to speed. There wasn't any rush as Vestergard was having a blinding start to the season, and we had Stephens on the bench. Salisu got up to full fitness. Jannik got injured. Ralph chose Jack to start alongside Bednarek. Clean sheets in first 2 games together. Salisu had been on the bench. Salisu then picked up an injury in training. He is now out injured. As it happens we haven't needed him yet. No big deal. Have some patience. Change the sheets. Get some Tenna pants!

You must have missed that a) there was a press embargo re Salisu and b) LeG has made it clear that he joined with injuries but has something else personal going on. We don't know what it is, and as it's personal, neither should we. 

[Ted Bates Statue]

4 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Completely flawed as none of those players is Salisu. Probability cannot be worked out for the event.

Wasn't his transfer fee in the 10-20 million range?

[danjosaint]

13 minutes ago, Minsk said:

We really do have some bedwetters on this forum don't we? Something I was reminded of reading the match thread on Tuesday.

Why don't people want to believe what Ralph has told us? When has he ever lied?

Salisu joined with a long term muscle problem.

At no point has this been mentioned,  it is more than that and not an injury as such due to the media lockdown over it , yes he wasn't fit when he turned up but that's not the main issue

[Matthew Le God]

17 minutes ago, Ted Bates Statue said:

Wasn't his transfer fee in the 10-20 million range?

How another player in same price range does not allow you to calculate probability of him being a success. 

[Convict Colony]

49 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

How another player in same price range does not allow you to calculate probability of him being a success. 

Its the expectation that the money he costs brings

[Matthew Le God]

6 minutes ago, Convict Colony said:

Its the expectation that the money he costs brings

That makes no sense in regard to probability, which was what my post was responding to.

[hackedoff]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

You've never seen him play. Yet you've written him off! 🙄

The not playing part mentioned in your statement is the crux of the problem. Things may work out ok,but as it strands ,at this present time,this looks like yet another poor buy.

 

[Fitzhugh Fella]

I know a player's privacy must be respected but surely it is now time for the club to be a little more open as to the problem/situation. I worry that the lad will become an object of derision before stepping onto the pitch. He commanded a big fee which is one reason we are now unable to afford strengthening, so the fans can be forgiven for requesting a reasonable explanation which would also help dampen all the negative talk.

[egg]

22 minutes ago, Fitzhugh Fella said:

I know a player's privacy must be respected but surely it is now time for the club to be a little more open as to the problem/situation. I worry that the lad will become an object of derision before stepping onto the pitch. He commanded a big fee which is one reason we are now unable to afford strengthening, so the fans can be forgiven for requesting a reasonable explanation which would also help dampen all the negative talk.

Nonsense.

It won't help you to know more. It won't help him to know that you know more. 

You knowing more doesn't get him playing any sooner. 

None of us are entitled to know more about someone else's life.

[skintsaint]

2 hours ago, Fitzhugh Fella said:

He commanded a big fee

That's just depressing really, for a top level club these days it isnt.....but it is for us

[Ex Lion Tamer]

1 hour ago, skintsaint said:

That's just depressing really, for a top level club these days it isnt.....but it is for us

Our top fees tend to be around the £20m mark. This was half that

[Mystic Force]

So when i added the clarification including Bayesian probability, which I left out originally as not the sort of thing that the average football fan is likely to care about you did not see how in the calculation the only probability to worry about is the reference class as the individual player has done nothing at this point to change the posterior probability, and if you were going to assign a probability, the fact that he has not played for an extended time would ascribe a negative effect, I do not see how not currently being available is a positive asset. If Southampton track record over the last few seasons for signing these types of players was better the probability would be higher. I am not saying that he will not dazzle at some point in the future, but chances are not looking great. 

In relation to the reference class, should the bounds have been lower ie cheaper? not sure that would help the probability, we are not including youths brought in from other clubs who might or might not be able to develop. And on balance you would expect the ability of players at the top of the range (20 million) to be significantly better than at the bottom (10 million) thereby helping to lift the prior probability of the reference class. Was there a time boundary issue, the change of personnel seems a significant change suitable for defining when the period under investigation would start. Or do we need to work on the definition of successful? I think selling for more than we payed, would be good, going out on loan to a club in a lower division or country with a lower reputation squad is bad. Remaining at the club but never playing would be bad. Being a regular starter is good. 

So please explain why this probability model is not generally applicable?

[Saint Troy]

5 hours ago, Fitzhugh Fella said:

I know a player's privacy must be respected but surely it is now time for the club to be a little more open as to the problem/situation. I worry that the lad will become an object of derision before stepping onto the pitch. He commanded a big fee which is one reason we are now unable to afford strengthening, so the fans can be forgiven for requesting a reasonable explanation which would also help dampen all the negative talk.

Oh yeah - if he steps on the pitch im gonna be like booooooooooo and sing (to the tune of Waterloo (ABBA)

"Salisu - Couldnt play if he wanted to

Salisu - ill demand a  reasonable explanation which would also help dampen all the negative talk... for ever mooooore" 

 

[VectisSaint]

7 hours ago, Fitzhugh Fella said:

I know a player's privacy must be respected but surely it is now time for the club to be a little more open as to the problem/situation. I worry that the lad will become an object of derision before stepping onto the pitch. He commanded a big fee which is one reason we are now unable to afford strengthening, so the fans can be forgiven for requesting a reasonable explanation which would also help dampen all the negative talk.

There is no reason at all why the club cannot be open about the current injury situation, which has nothing to do (apparently) with the 'personal' situation. But they won't because it is not how the club work. Can you imagine if this had happened to a player at Man U or Liverpool? No way would it have remained private. 

[Matthew Le God]

8 minutes ago, VectisSaint said:

There is no reason at all why the club cannot be open about the current injury situation, which has nothing to do (apparently) with the 'personal' situation. But they won't because it is not how the club work. Can you imagine if this had happened to a player at Man U or Liverpool? No way would it have remained private. 

Would you be happy for your employer/doctor surgery to make your medical record public?

[AlexLaw76]

On 18/01/2021 at 09:09, egg said:

Salisu is clearly good enough 

May I ask, how is the a fact? I hope he is, but to state it as being clear is a bit weird!

[egg]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

May I ask, how is the a fact? I hope he is, but to state it as being clear is a bit weird!

From what I've seen of him, I believe he's good enough. Indeed, I think he's an excellent player. If your opinion, having seen him play, is different then that's cool. 

[egg]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

Would you be happy for your employer/doctor surgery to make your medical record public?

Indeed. Why fans believe that they have a right to know sensitive information about a footy player I have no idea. If we all know, it won't alter the fact that he can't play. More importantly, it's hard to see how sensitive information being put into the public domain will help the lad. 

These idiots need to get over themselves. 

[VectisSaint]

2 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Would you be happy for your employer/doctor surgery to make your medical record public?

What the feck are you on about statto. Injuries and reports on them are bread and butter for football clubs. No one said anything about the 'personal matter'. 

[Convict Colony]

4 hours ago, Mystic Force said:

So when i added the clarification including Bayesian probability, which I left out originally as not the sort of thing that the average football fan is likely to care about you did not see how in the calculation the only probability to worry about is the reference class as the individual player has done nothing at this point to change the posterior probability, and if you were going to assign a probability, the fact that he has not played for an extended time would ascribe a negative effect, I do not see how not currently being available is a positive asset. If Southampton track record over the last few seasons for signing these types of players was better the probability would be higher. I am not saying that he will not dazzle at some point in the future, but chances are not looking great. 

In relation to the reference class, should the bounds have been lower ie cheaper? not sure that would help the probability, we are not including youths brought in from other clubs who might or might not be able to develop. And on balance you would expect the ability of players at the top of the range (20 million) to be significantly better than at the bottom (10 million) thereby helping to lift the prior probability of the reference class. Was there a time boundary issue, the change of personnel seems a significant change suitable for defining when the period under investigation would start. Or do we need to work on the definition of successful? I think selling for more than we payed, would be good, going out on loan to a club in a lower division or country with a lower reputation squad is bad. Remaining at the club but never playing would be bad. Being a regular starter is good. 

So please explain why this probability model is not generally applicable?

Interesting am gonna have to read about that, read this book about similar subject - https://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules-Lives/dp/0307275175

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, egg said:

From what I've seen of him, I believe he's good enough. Indeed, I think he's an excellent player. If your opinion, having seen him play, is different then that's cool. 

Fair enough. Where and how much how have you seen of him? Be interesting to see what he is about.

[Chris cooper]

1 hour ago, egg said:

Indeed. Why fans believe that they have a right to know sensitive information about a footy player I have no idea. If we all know, it won't alter the fact that he can't play. More importantly, it's hard to see how sensitive information being put into the public domain will help the lad. 

These idiots need to get over themselves. 

Probably cos the fans pay huge ticket prices to watch players play .. they invest in them so it stands to reason if your paying big bucks to watch a team  every week you want some info on how bad the players injury or in this case mental state if he’s fit in body and mind to play or not ..