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Southampton - A statistical analysis


TWar
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I have recently got access to full opta statistics for premier league sides and was surprised at how much we appear to be on the extrema of different stats. I know some people will say they don't like xG/xGA/xGC stuff but this is for those who do. If this is too long for you (likely) then I have bolded the most interesting facts.

For note:

xG = Expected goals scored
xA = Expected Assists
xGC = Expected Goals Conceded.

Goalkeeping

This was the most surprising one for me. McCarthy is statistically having a superb season. He is 6th on goals prevented (xGC- GC) which is excellent given that he didn't play all season and 4th in goals prevented per minute. Only behind Foster, Ederson, and Leno.

His save percentage is pretty middle of the pack, slightly lower than Ederson, but slightly higher than Fabianski and Mat Ryan.

On a more negative note, he is joint second on errors leading to goals with 3 alongside Ederson, Pickford and David De Gea. Another negative is that his distribution is terrible. He is near the bottom for passes completed.

Gunn has dreadful stats in almost every area, props up most tables.

Defending

Again starting with the good stuff. Bednarek has the second most interceptions in the league, second most clearances, 5th most headed clearances, and second most (clearances+blocks+interceptions). Both Bednarek and Vestergaard have good aerial duels won, both being high on the table. Strangely Volkins has a 100% tackle percentage having succeeded in both of the 2 tackles he attempted. This is true of 6 other players.

In an attacking sense, Bertrand has been excellent. He has the 6th most successful crosses in the league and 6th most xA. So why doesn't he have more assists? Bertrand is the highest in the league for expected assists minus actual assists of any defender. He is an excellent creative force but people are not reliably finishing his chances.

On a more negative note Vestergaard has one of the worst tackle success rates in the league. Furthermore Bednarek has the worst (3) errors leading to goals in the league!

Midfield

We all know the famous one that James Ward-Prowse has covered the most ground this season but it isn't the place he exceeds. He is also second for  goals from set pieces and third for successful (finding a target) corners, only after Trent and KdB fully cementing his label of set piece specialist.

Ward-Prowse is 3rd for tackles won by a midfielder in the league and Hojbjerg is 7th. Amongst midfielders, he is 6th for interceptions, 8th for recoveries, 6th for blocks, 3rd for clearances, and [JWP] is second for (clearances+blocks+interceptions) in the league. Amongst midfielders, Hojbjerg is number 1 for recoveries in the league.  JWP is also 5th for most successful crosses in the league and 7th for chances created. Crazily given how short he is, JWP is also 9th for aerial duals won amongst midfielders.

Redmond has 8th most successful take-ons in the league, more so though Mane, Salah, and Son and Martial. He is also near the top for successful passes in the final third.

Armstrong is joint second for goals outside (3) the box, JWP is joint 3rd (2). For who is joint first, see the next section, you can probably guess.

On a more negative note. Djenepo, Armstrong, Hojbjerg, and Boufal are low down on the table for pass completion %. This isn't necessarily as bad as it sounds given our strategy of many high risk passes into the final 3rd then recovering the ball high. Hojbjerg is 10th for errors leading to goals in the league.

Ward-Prowse has the lowest expected goal contribution vs actual goal contribution in the league. The majority of this is that his expected assists are significantly higher than his actual assists, similarly to Bertrand. And the (stastically) worst finisher of any midfielder in the league (lowest goals per xG) is... Hojbjerg. The guy just can't shoot!

Forwards (or "Danny Ings is ridiculously good!")

Danny Ings is statistically the best striker in the league this season (or one of, but I like the hyperbole). His expected goals vs actual goals (on target) is number one in the league. His expected goal involvement vs actual goal involvement is 3rd only after Aubamayang and Greenwood. And that is, as previously established, alongside other players who cannot finish chances. He is number 1 in tackles for forwards and number 2 in tackles won (behind Ayew). And number 6 in recoveries.

In expected assists vs actual assists Che Adams is pretty high, this means the people he passes to (Ings) are doing better with the chance than would be expected. Also finally when it comes to expected goals vs actual goals Ings might be first but shout out to Obafemi who comes in 10th above some top strikers, must be a good finisher!

Conclusions (especially for those who didn't get through this massive post)

- Macca is great at shot stopping but can't pass
- Bednarek is a great blocker and interceptor but has an error in him
- Bertrand is one of the most creative fullbacks in the league but no one finishes his chances
- JWP is an incredible player both defensively and attacking especially from set pieces but, again, struggles with people finishing what he creates (and has some finishing issues himself)
- Hojbjerg has the most recoveries in the league but couldn't finish a dinner
- Redmond is great at taking players on and accurate passing in the final third. This is likely why he often gets the assist before the assist. Way underrated by the fan base
- Danny Ings is amazing

 

 

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Some interesting data and there and firms up / questions some opinions on players!

Question for me:  How do they calculated all the expected values?

xG = Expected goals scored
xA = Expected Assists
xGC = Expected Goals Conceded

Thanks

 

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4 minutes ago, nta786 said:

This covers the most of it. Every company has slightly different models for calculating it. So Ings is much further ahead on understat than he is on opta for xG-G. The algorithm is kept secret mostly so that people cannot use it and there is still usage for these websites.

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56 minutes ago, TWar said:

I have recently got access to full opta statistics for premier league sides and was surprised at how much we appear to be on the extrema of different stats. I know some people will say they don't like xG/xGA/xGC stuff but this is for those who do. If this is too long for you (likely) then I have bolded the most interesting facts.

For note:

xG = Expected goals scored
xA = Expected Assists
xGC = Expected Goals Conceded.

Goalkeeping

This was the most surprising one for me. McCarthy is statistically having a superb season. He is 6th on goals prevented (xGC- GC) which is excellent given that he didn't play all season and 4th in goals prevented per minute. Only behind Foster, Ederson, and Leno.

His save percentage is pretty middle of the pack, slightly lower than Ederson, but slightly higher than Fabianski and Mat Ryan.

On a more negative note, he is joint second on errors leading to goals with 3 alongside Ederson, Pickford and David De Gea. Another negative is that his distribution is terrible. He is near the bottom for passes completed.

Gunn has dreadful stats in almost every area, props up most tables.

Defending

Again starting with the good stuff. Bednarek has the second most interceptions in the league, second most clearances, 5th most headed clearances, and second most (clearances+blocks+interceptions). Both Bednarek and Vestergaard have good aerial duels won, both being high on the table. Strangely Volkins has a 100% tackle percentage having succeeded in both of the 2 tackles he attempted. This is true of 6 other players.

In an attacking sense, Bertrand has been excellent. He has the 6th most successful crosses in the league and 6th most xA. So why doesn't he have more assists? Bertrand is the highest in the league for expected assists minus actual assists of any defender. He is an excellent creative force but people are not reliably finishing his chances.

On a more negative note Vestergaard has one of the worst tackle success rates in the league. Furthermore Bednarek has the worst (3) errors leading to goals in the league!

Midfield

We all know the famous one that James Ward-Prowse has covered the most ground this season but it isn't the place he exceeds. He is also second for  goals from set pieces and third for successful (finding a target) corners, only after Trent and KdB fully cementing his label of set piece specialist.

Ward-Prowse is 3rd for tackles won by a midfielder in the league and Hojbjerg is 7th. Amongst midfielders, he is 6th for interceptions, 8th for recoveries, 6th for blocks, 3rd for clearances, and [JWP] is second for (clearances+blocks+interceptions) in the league. Amongst midfielders, Hojbjerg is number 1 for recoveries in the league.  JWP is also 5th for most successful crosses in the league and 7th for chances created. Crazily given how short he is, JWP is also 9th for aerial duals won amongst midfielders.

Redmond has 8th most successful take-ons in the league, more so though Mane, Salah, and Son and Martial. He is also near the top for successful passes in the final third.

Armstrong is joint second for goals outside (3) the box, JWP is joint 3rd (2). For who is joint first, see the next section, you can probably guess.

On a more negative note. Djenepo, Armstrong, Hojbjerg, and Boufal are low down on the table for pass completion %. This isn't necessarily as bad as it sounds given our strategy of many high risk passes into the final 3rd then recovering the ball high. Hojbjerg is 10th for errors leading to goals in the league.

Ward-Prowse has the lowest expected goal contribution vs actual goal contribution in the league. The majority of this is that his expected assists are significantly higher than his actual assists, similarly to Bertrand. And the (stastically) worst finisher of any midfielder in the league (lowest goals per xG) is... Hojbjerg. The guy just can't shoot!

Forwards (or "Danny Ings is ridiculously good!")

Danny Ings is statistically the best striker in the league this season (or one of, but I like the hyperbole). His expected goals vs actual goals (on target) is number one in the league. His expected goal involvement vs actual goal involvement is 3rd only after Aubamayang and Greenwood. And that is, as previously established, alongside other players who cannot finish chances. He is number 1 in tackles for forwards and number 2 in tackles won (behind Ayew). And number 6 in recoveries.

In expected assists vs actual assists Che Adams is pretty high, this means the people he passes to (Ings) are doing better with the chance than would be expected. Also finally when it comes to expected goals vs actual goals Ings might be first but shout out to Obafemi who comes in 10th above some top strikers, must be a good finisher!

Conclusions (especially for those who didn't get through this massive post)

- Macca is great at shot stopping but can't pass
- Bednarek is a great blocker and interceptor but has an error in him
- Bertrand is one of the most creative fullbacks in the league but no one finishes his chances
- JWP is an incredible player both defensively and attacking especially from set pieces but, again, struggles with people finishing what he creates (and has some finishing issues himself)
- Hojbjerg has the most recoveries in the league but couldn't finish a dinner
- Redmond is great at taking players on and accurate passing in the final third. This is likely why he often gets the assist before the assist. Way underrated by the fan base
- Danny Ings is amazing

 

 

Thanks a lot. Tallies with what you would expect:

- need a bit more quality at CB

- need a better partner for JWP

- ideally need more goals from non-Ings strikers (hopefully Che and Obafemi can chip in more)

- if McCarthy could pass he'd be top drawer

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16 minutes ago, swannymere said:

Great, quite interesting. how does Stephens rate first half of the season versus second?

First 19 games:

clearances+interceptions+blocks: 78
errors leading to chances: 1
errors leading to goals: 1
tackle %: 67
aerial dual %: 50
pass %: 70

Latter 18 games:

clearances+interceptions+blocks: 95
errors leading to chances: 0
errors leading to goals: 0
tackle %: 66.7
aerial dual %: 36
pass %: 72
 

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1 minute ago, TWar said:

First 19 games:

clearances+interceptions+blocks: 78
errors leading to chances: 1
errors leading to goals: 1
tackle %: 67
aerial dual %: 50
pass %: 70

Latter 18 games:

clearances+interceptions+blocks: 95
errors leading to chances: 0
errors leading to goals: 0
tackle %: 66.7
aerial dual %: 36
pass %: 72
 

So, an improvement in some areas and roughly the same in others. I rate him, experience will only make him better. Future Captain?

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Some of these are quite fun.

Particularly surrounding Ward-Prowse (who I consistently hear being sarcastically referred to as a 'set-piece expert' at games) and Redmond, who apparently never takes anybody on.

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55 minutes ago, swannymere said:

So, an improvement in some areas and roughly the same in others. I rate him, experience will only make him better. Future Captain?

No guarantee he'll stay in the team enough to be captain, and it would only happen if JWP left anyway.

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Love the stats, good insight amigo

But if you can help I want to know:

- Who passes back the most

- Who runs 5yards forward and then turns and runs back 10yards and passes backwards the most

- Who plays the most and is the worst performer

-Have many times has MLG been statistical wrong with his comments.

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So basically we really need to keep hold of Bertrand, JWP, Redmond and of course Ings.

If we find a midfielder who is good at recoveries, can shoot a bit and pass decently, we will have found an upgrade on Hojberg.

If we can find an as good shot stopper as McCarthy who can also distribute better, we can upgrade the GK position. 

Improvements can obviously be made at centre-back but if Bednerak can keep improving and reducing the mistakes he'll become a very good one. 

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